Running head: FINAL RESEARCH PAPER
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Final Research Proposal: Affordable housing in Vancouver
Achraj Nanda (1812932)
University Canada West
Professor: Professor: Dr. Dereje Bezabih
RSCH 600: Research Methodologies & Inquiry
16th June 2019
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Index
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………...3
Introduction………………………………………………………………………4
Statement of Problem ……………………………………………….…. ………5
Purpose of the study……………………………………………………………….5
Research Questions…………………………………….……..................................6
Research Hypothesis………………………………………………………………7
Literature Review………………………………………………………………….7
Research Methods…………………………………………………………………15
Data Samplings…………………………………………………………………….17
Data Analysis……………………………………………………………………….19
Ethical Issues & Considerations……………………………………………………21
Project Work Plan & Deliverables…………………………………………………22
References……………………………………………………………………………24
Appendix……………………………………………………………………………..27
2
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Abstract
This paper shows the correlation of hidden variables between the microeconomic
determinants responsible for Influx in housing market prices and foreign investment in the city of
Vancouver. Is cost the main reason for forcing people working in the city to move to different
suburbs nearby, the role of tourism in spiking the rates of properties. The monthly data of the last
five years is taken in research to know deeply about the changes in rent and cost.
An analysis is included at the very end of the research paper to serve the purpose of
showing the relationship and dynamics between the key variables and future accession in prices
of Vancouver real state market.
Another objective of this paper is to compare the critical pointers to find out their
predicting expertise. The resulting model will show the correlating coefficient between the rising
housing market and several housing fundamentals like the ratio of rent and vacancy rates of the
housing market.
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Introduction
Vancouver housing it is one of the most controversial market right now, it is almost
impossible to find an affordable house in Vancouver, unreal hike in housing prices makes it
almost impossible for the people with minimum wages to rent or buy a home in this city. As a
problem people of Vancouver are shifting to nearby suburbs like Surrey, Burnaby, and Richmond
for the sake of lower housing prices.
The goal of this literature is to find out the significant housing factors influx and
compare the housing prices to the suburbs with the Vancouver and check for the significant
factors influencing the hike of prices in Vancouver.
Due to fluctuation the trend has moved upwards with the rising prices, it has always been
Canada’s most expensive real estate market, people find it hard to buy a house in Vancouver due
to its high rise and un-stability. Renting is also one of the major problems that major students and
professional who come from different city or country, homelessness is also one of the major
concerns of this city, absurd rentals have forced people working or studying in the city to live in
nearby towns and commute to and for to work.
City of Vancouver has implemented lots of plans to provide the room to the people of
minimum wages but they have failed to build the low cost rentals, planners are trying to figure
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out a way to deliver to the hard hit group that has been knocked out by the most serious house
affordability problem on the planet.
Statement of problem
The reason why this research is important is that the fluctuations in house prices in
Vancouver can help us further understand the macro and macro-economic factors that affect the
local economy and example of that would be. The median income of an average household living
in metro Vancouver when compared to the median income of the households who are living in
the surrounding income surrounding suburbs such as Burnaby and Richmond. An addition the
housing market can also provide us with other macro-economic indications such as the average
spending of an average household living in Vancouver and compared to the average household as
in nearby suburbs of Burnaby, Richmond and Surrey .
What I hope to learn from this research is that how the real estate market operates in a
diverse city as Vancouver and how this housing market would affect not only the local economy
in Vancouver but also effects the economy of suburbs such as Burnaby, Richmond and surrey.
Purpose of the study
This research would contribute to our current understanding of the role of the free market
forces that effects the housing market of Vancouver and how such forces would affect local
market of other goods and services that a city such as Vancouver would provide for its residents
as well as international students and temporary workers.
The possible benefits that would be derived from conducting this research will give the
Vancouver city council essential data that can aid them not only further understand the issue of
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the housing market but also provide solutions for Vancouver’s housing problems as well as give
possible ways to introduce affordable housing for low income households and tenants. This
research could be used by a number of organizations especially Marketing firms who can utilize
this data to seek out new potential customers for new and existing products. This can be done by
using the housing market as a blueprint for understanding the spending habits of a potential
household as well as the median income that a household may earn.
Scope of research
The scope of research is to “as mentioned above”, is to understand how the housing
market is in Vancouver operates at the micro and macro-economic level as well as how the
Vancouver housing market can be compared to housing market in Vancouver, Burnaby and
Richmond and surrey and what factors affect each of this market. For purpose of this research, It
would utilize five sources ranging from books, journal articles and statistical data which would
aid in analysis of the research and provide evidence for research hypothesis, these sources will
also help us address the issues that were raised for these research paper and provides solutions to
address the concerns that were raised in this course paper.
Research Questions
i)
What is the main reason for the rise of property prices in Vancouver?
ii)
Is tourism affecting Vancouver?
iii)
What is the housing cost difference in nearby suburbs?
iv)
How can Vancouver have more affordable houses so that minimum wages
resident can also afford to live there?
v)
What is the government doing to help this issue?
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Hypothesis
It is hypothesized that rise in housing prices in Vancouver is because of tourism, foreign
investment.
Alternate Hypothesis
It is hypothesized that Rising housing prises doesn’t have any relation to increasing
homeless in the City.
Literature Review:
Affordable housing is one of the biggest concern which Vancouver is facing without any
doubt, this article (Yu & Bai, 2017) shows the factor influencing housing prices like rent ratio
vacancy rate and the cost housing capital according to MLS home price index the houses prices
in nominally double from January to December 2016 in Canada with major Metropolitan
Vancouver saw the price hike up to 2.37 times, like most of the resilient cities,
As there is less inventory in renting options it leads to spike in renal costs, for
instance, London, New York, and Chicago are also struggling to provide affordable housing
for the residents. They have mentioned that foreign investment is one of the significant
factors for an increase in housing prices.
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Previous reports have stated that its practically impossible for people with minimum
wages to afford to rent or buy a house in Vancouver, a massive report showed that in new
Vancouver housing strategy was focused on building lots of houses for different income levels
and there were almost 15,400 were approved in 2017-18, 1000 of them were $80000 a year.
Some of them were social housing, only 85 of them were for the income group between 1500030000 a year and 776 for those making 30000-50000 per annum. (Connolly, 2018)
This article establishes the connect between the wage and income that shows their
affordability to rent a house in particular region.
Following article by Jim Clayton, 1997 refers to the irrational factors influencing housing
prices and real estate market upswings, the intangible expectations that leads do raising rates AR
unreasonable house price expectation and investor’s psychology other than huge swings in
housing market fundamentals (Clayton, 1997). They also investigate the efficiency of the market
of single-family homes and they also provide a study that covers the effectiveness of
Vancouver’s Condominium Apartments Market using a cross-section line to time series data on
eight months abilities in Vancouver metropolitan area includes the scores from the year 1982 to
1994 for the sample.
Following article reflects the difference of demand and cost variation between family
home over the years.
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In 2018 Canadian housing market had an uneven and mixed rise in interest rate and
affordability concerns according to the Journal in the Conference Board of Canada (Wiebe,
2018) tells us that the housing market of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver saw a downfall in
demand due to their Rising prices when compared it with Fraser Valley, Winnipeg, Sudbury,
London and Windsor Whereas, cities in Alberta and Saskatchewan remain the same while at the
end report suggests that the prices of Vancouver with the highest comparing it to other cities as
the seals went down by 39.2%, but the prices went up by 1.9%.
As one of the most fluctuating and unstable market Vancouver’s housing market have its
ups and downs quiet often and that’s what makes it tough to buy a property in this city.
In earlier times, the house was usually purchased as a long-term asset, people used to
think of it as a place to spend their whole life but nowadays everybody is looking for a return on
investment. This complex economic ecosystem became the main reason for the financial crisis in
US 2008 when mortgage subprime Market collapsed for the U.S. It had a significant effect on the
economy for the economic depression (Holt 2008).
There is a secure connection between the housing market and the labor and financial
Market which makes it challenging to define the separation between them (Gonzalez, 2014)
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One method, suggests the process of taking out the cost of housing capital it can be
further helpful in this research Diaz and Prado, 2008 stated different methods for measuring the
user cost and explain the concept of the Shadow price on buying a house “consists recent
transaction costs former return do housing equity and the amount of mortgage adding future.
Expected transaction cost and property tax and maintenance minus expected capital gains”. (Diaz
and Prado, 2008)
Nominal house prices were adjusted using the house price of October 2006 as the base
amount of 100. As can be seen from the ‘figure 2’, referred in the appendix section. in general,
house prices in Canada have been going up fairly steadily with the single most significant
decrease in 2008 affected by the subprime mortgage financial crisis in the United States. One of
the sharpest slop appeared in 2016 boosted mainly by Vancouver and later Toronto, with a last
similar level fluctuation (Yu & Bai, 2017)
It has happened before and after 2008. Besides, an overall cyclical pattern was displayed
from the graph with slight decreases occur at almost every year end which in line with the
phenomena of generally lower sales of houses in winters.
Real rents, on the other hand, presented a much less volatile trend and smaller interval
increases. Within the most recent ten years, actual composite rents in Canada has been rising
with no noticeable decline, revealing a relatively stable supporting economy. Small deviations
could be useful for our method of calculating estimated rent with CPI increase rate. However,
rent prices would always come back on the original track, returning to the trend-line.
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According to data from Canadian housing society Vancouver had a high rise compared to
all the other cities in the Canada, Toronto was second, followed by Saskatoon.
Major Metro towns in Canada have developed a similar Trend with an influx of housing
prices in every city, with an exceptional increase in real house prices in Vancouver recently this
year. There was a higher increase in rent compared with the previous year due to high demands.
In 2016 and December of 2017 (Georgieva, 2017) foreign buyers played a significant role in
increasing the cost of the housing, so the government of "British Columbia" implemented the
additional property transfer tax for foreign buyers however after this policy got implemented,
nothing changed but it triggered the shooting up of real estate prices in Vancouver.
This article relates the hike of prises and the influence by foreign buyers on the market,
due to high return and money laundering majority buyers from Asia are impacting the economy.
There was a research done by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) in
2014, it was testing out that how many houses are under Western name and number of houses
those are under traditionally Chinese name are under name on housing market under foreign
investment reveals that 46% of the luxury homes in British Columbia especially Vancouver and
Richmond the owner of the house had a traditional Chinese name we still say that Chinese
investment is impacting Vancouver’s housing a lot.
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Many studies imply that, in the Canadian context, the empirical work in the housing
market of foreign investment is limited, (Allen et al., 2006) study of the determinants of the
housing market is minimal. Allen et al. (2006) conclude that after analysis done on city and
country level, foreign investment was the primary key to an increase in housing prices. This
analysis would be helpful in research about affordable houses in Vancouver.
The research proves that the significant reason for the hike in property prices are the
foreign buyers and majorly Chinese.
The primary reason that the Canadian market, especially Vancouver is facing influx in the
housing market is because of buyers majorly because Chinese investors are capitalizing on
countries growing economy, stable government, and high living standards. Rental properties and
“fixing upper” hos became the primary investment strategy (Guest and Rohde, 2017), they are
keenly looking for high profit in a shorter span of time, some argue that there is a spillover effect
of increasing prices of luxury homes in the market (Liao et al., 2015). Guest and Rohde (2017)
argue that Gauder et al. underestimate the effect of foreign investment on housing prices and the
stability of the housing market.
Immigration influences British Columbia and mainly Vancouver's population growth,
British Columbia has had the fastest growing population in Canada with a 2.5% growth rate over
the last two years. It was twice as fast as the nation-wide growth during this period (1.2%). In
1995, British Columbia received 37, 192 (net) immigrants (DeVorez, 1996) with 87per cent
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destined for greater Vancouver. However, 1/3rd of them moves out from Vancouver to nearby
suburbs like Richmond and Surrey.
In this era of globalisation people from all parts of the world are migrating to British
Columbia and essentially the immigrants want to move in major metropolitan area of Canada
that is Vancouver and Victoria. In fact, in the last two decades, data from the Canadian.Census
have shown some immigrant dispersal outside major metropolitan centres to little suburbs.
(Bonifacio and Kobayashi, 2012).
As the migration policies are more lenient in Canada people from all around the world
are coming to settle in Canada and is one of the reasons for price hike in Vancouver and Victoria
as these are the biggest cities of the province.
The search of house for immigrants in the residential market, residential mobility and
city-level concentration processes, encompassed under the concept of the 'housing career', are
key aspects when it comes to understanding this population's integration into the host society
(Murdie, 2003). For immigrants, especially those from low-income or economic migrant
families, finding a suitable place to live in a new community is an important step towards
successful integration. (Teixeira, 2014)
Since the base of being comfortable as a immigrant in the new city is finding a place to
live, due to the high prices, the low income family of immigrants are not having a good time
working in the city.
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Tourism has emerged as an important industry throughout the world. As was
demonstrated at the Globe '90 Conference on Tourism in Vancouver. There is a remarkable
objection of the influence it had on host societies. The article was written from a European
perspective with particular reference to package holidays.(Ryan, 2002) Companies and
governments in tourism have applied only part of the marketing mix to tourism, that is,
promotion, with little attention getting paid to the other components of marketing, but if tourism
is to survive by generating satisfaction among interacting tourists and hosts, it must adopt
societal marketing strategies. Many wealthy tourists buy property in Vancouver and use it as a
place to stay on vacations; as a result, it gets difficult for everyday people to buy a house in this
beautiful city
Detailed literature map is attached in the appendix section for the further detail.
The main fallout in this research is, the majority of the sources are relative of the recent
year if there were older sources it would have been better for finding out the primary reasons
why housing prices are so high in Vancouver. We could get a better Insight on it, but further
research down the road would give a better understanding of what is happening here compared to
the previous decade.
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Literature about this Canadian housing is emerging however not much has been done
primarily in the context of foreign investment that is affecting the housing market in Vancouver
however there is data, but it is not reliable and consistent on the city level. Moreover, whatever
data we have is inconsistent in their sources, and it is all based on assumptions.
Research Methods
Data Collection Procedures & Methodology
Study will use mixed method approach because of the participation of quantitative and
qualitative data means. Considering, data collection is performed through qualitative and
quantitative measures, it will be culmination of primary and secondary data to get through the
findings of market influx. Research will use a mixture of survey of 10 open and close-ended
questionnaire. These questionnaires would help us in the analyzing and hypothesis part of the
research. In primary, we will use focus group of 10 participants and asking about their
experience rent experience, do they live in Vancouver or the nearby suburbs, and nationality of
the owner. Samples for surveys are going to be taken from the universities and the people in
Vancouver City's downtown area, and all the participants will be sampled on the simple sampling
method and stratified sampling method. This method would require four individuals from each
suburb and Vancouver so that we get the exact average rent and the housing cost, and the margin
of error would be comparatively less.
For secondary data, study will use MLS, the housing index that would show the housing
prices off the several towns. Longitudinal data on housing rent/buying will be collected through
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housing industry publications and reports. Ad-hoc, govt. and private surveys will also be
considered.
Data Collection Type
This research will use qualitative and quantitative data collectively, as finding the price of
houses is a callous and complex process different researchers used different methods and
methodologies to find out housing price data in their research. In the following research the
primary source of data collection would be Face to face interviews and telephonic interviews.
The secondary source of data collection will include the data collected by governmental
institutions, similar to MLS home price index to show the fluctuation in housing prices MLS is
data that is developed using the listing service from multiple sources and helps to show the
fluctuation in the housing market. Journals for the housing market along with the Canadian
government real estate websites will also be used to find out the real estate estimated cost in
Vancouver.
There is a methodology by Housing Pricing Index (HPI), according to that the MLS
housing prize index is a far more superior have a far more superior assessment criteria, so it
would be very reliable source in our research criteria. Moreover, let us also shows the
information also, that data described by location area demographic attributes it also shows the
change in prices due to geographical characteristics like being near streets hospital and schools.
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Sampling methods
I.) Stratified Sampling
This research will use this sampling method to find out the average renting prices of
houses in different suburbs compared to Vancouver to find out the difference between renting
prices and know the cost of property, in this method we are going to ask people who are working
or studying in Vancouver area, who actually live in nearby suburbs and come here to Transit.
This research will use Simple Random Sampling (SRS) out of 12 people (for each subcategory
mentioned below) from our University and in downtown area, study will select four people from
every suburb and Vancouver to find out:
- The average rent that they pay each month,
- The nationality of the owner of the house (to find out about the impact of foreign
investment).
- If they own the house then what is the cost the property and how much mortgage they
pay?
This method would not only be speedy but would also reduce sampling error.
II.) Finding average rents (Random Sampling method)
Finding out enough information about the rents in Vancouver compared to nearby
suburbs like Richmond and Surrey can tell us a lot about the research and the market fluctuation.
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The survey would target the private rentals for at least six months it should be an individual
survey and the data from RMS that is a rental market survey from every year to find the
mortgage rates. Data from SRMS secondary drain to Market Survey conducted by CMHC can
also be a consideration when it comes to finding renting prices.
Surveys
The sample size that the research would be targeting would be 152 people. UCW, along
with three different places in the urban areas, will be selected as the interviewing. The survey
also targets five privately owned residential properties and two individual inaugurated structures
that have been in the market for at least five months, it will also collect data for total market rent,
rental availability, turnover, and vacancy.
The survey plan would include a combination of interviews by email and discussions
with the focus groups, property managers and building administrator.
Benefits of research
The beneficiary from this research would be the household who falls between medium
and low income, people with minimum wages, and the University students as those are the most
significant people who most impacted by the regulations, economy and fluctuation off housing
Market. Through this study, society will get better understanding off housing market, and these
indicators can also be used to forecast future ups and downs of housing prices that are derived
from the historical data and empirical studies.
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Data Analysis
There are complex matrix's that is used for the factors that influence the real estate
markets and the mechanism that affects the macroeconomic variables are the national GDP, the
disposable income, the mortgage rate, and the growth. The growth of the economy has a direct
relation with the housing prices and the house rentals, and the other relationship is with the
interest that is rapidly increasing in the property tax rate, and after the income tax, it can be
combined with maintenance and depreciation rate.
To find out and analyze the accurate actual cost of housing is actually the major
challenge in this research, It would use two different types of methods to find the cost of housing
capital, one method “adds current transaction cost, cost of mortgage, Property Tax, Maintenance,
and property tax – Capital gain”. (Diaz and Prado, 2008)
Secondly, another method (Gallin,2008) has a similar approach to find out the cost of
housing which shows the relationship between housing prizes and cost in that beautiful method
that it assess the cost of houses he also tells that the cost of houses can be accelerated by the
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relation between finances plus liquidity minus the debt on them, the formulae below finds out the
relationship.
In this method Rt stands for rent, Pt is the house price, It is nominal interest rate,
Is marginal income tax,
associated with housing is
is maintenance and depreciation together, the risk
and the expected capital gains would be EtGt..
The data collected Primarily from questionnaires and the secondary data from the CREA
and MLS will be compiled and analyzed using quantitative analysis method. Also, the primary
data taken by Focus group discussion and interviews would be analyzed under qualitative data
method.
After finding housing cost, we can compare that are suburbs better option than then
renting or buying a place in Vancouver.
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Ethical Issues & Considerations
The major issue that would come in the research would be ignoring other side of research
that contradicts the finding the research. Purposefully manipulating data when you receive data
that is contradictory to thesis statement would be unethical to ignore. Research data findings
should be shared as it despite the outcome and should not be misleading.
Project Workplan and Deliverables
The figure above elaborates the project plan divided into 14 weeks; it starts from the
literature review and will go till report writing, the whole research would take roughly three
months (14 weeks to be precise). The literature review would take weeks and, the questionnaire
development around one week.
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The second most important thing would be to identify the target groups as we have taken
people from different suburbs along with Vancouver. The research will focus on an equal number
of respondents from different cities, 1 week would be used to identify a Target group one week
for questionnaire distribution. To obtain primary data from interviews and questionnaires, it
would take do weeks. After collecting all the primary and secondary data adjust the whole
essence of the data would be required to conclude the analysis. Data analysis all alone would
take three weeks to, and the last three weeks would be used four-leaf and review of the research.
After collecting all the data from the research would go to the final stage of This research
that is compiling all the data and showing the result, to get the final draft, it would take around
three weeks to finish.
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References
Allen, J., Amano, R. Byrne, D., & Gregory, A. (2006). Canadian City Housing Prices and
Urban Market Segmentation’, Bank of Canada Working Paper 2006-49. Retrieved April 29, 2019
Arestis, P., & Gonzalez, A.R. (2014) ‘Modelling the Housing Market in OECD Countries
International Review of Applied Economics, 28(2), 131-153. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
Clayton, J. (1997). The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,14(3), 341-363.
Retrieved April 29, 2019.
Bonifacio, G.T. and J. Drolet.(2011) (Eds.) (submitted). Canadian Perspectives on
Immigration in Small Cities. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved April 29, 2019
Darden, J. and E. Fong. (2012). “The Spatial Segregation and Socio-Economic Inequality
of Immigrant Groups,” in Immigrant Geographies of North American Cities, edited by C.
Teixeira, W. Li and A. Kobayashi. Don Mills, Ontario: Oxford University Press, pp. 69-90.
Retrieved April 29, 2019
DeVoretz, D. J.. (1996). (n.d.). Retrieved April 30, 2019, from
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ncouver_Economic_Windfall_or_Downfall/links/56b7786e08aebbde1a7df818/Immigration-toVancouver-Economic-Windfall-or-Downfall.pdf. doi:Oct/1996 Retrieved April 29, 2019
Diaz, A. and Luengo-Prado, M. J. (2008). The User Cost, Home Ownership and Housing
Prices: Theory and Evidence from the US. International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home by
Elsevier. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
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Gallin, J. (2008). The Long-Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents. Real
Estate Economics V36, 4:pp.635-658
Georgieva, V. (2017, December). The effect of foreign investment in housing prices in
major Canadian cities. Retrieved April 26, 2019, from
https://ruor.uottawa.ca/bitstream/10393/37177/1/Georgieva_Vania_2017_researchpaper.pdf
Guest, R., &Rohde, N. (2017) ‘The Contribution of Real Estate Investment to Housing
Price Growth in Australian Capital Cities.’ Abacus, 53(3), 304-318. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
Holt, J. (2009). A Summary of the Primary Causes of the Housing Bubble and the
Resulting. Credit Crisis: A Non-Technical Paper.’ The Journal of Business Inquiry, 8(1), 120-129.
Retrieved April 29, 2019.
Liao, W., Zhao, D., Lim, L., & Wong, G. (2015). ‘Foreign Liquidity to Real Estate
Market: Ripple Effect and Housing Price Dynamics.’ Urban Studies, 52(1). 138-158. doi:
10.1177/0042098014523687. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
Murdie, R. A. and C. Teixeira. (2003). “Towards a Comfortable Neighbourhood and
Appropriate Housing: Immigrant Experiences in Toronto” in The World in a City, edited by P.
Anisef and M. Lanphier. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, pp. 132-191. Retrieved April 29,
2019.
Ryan, C. (2002, May 14). Tourism and marketing - a symbiotic relationship? Retrieved
April 30, 2019, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/026151779190064Z
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Teixeira, C. (2014). “Living on the „edge of the suburbs‟ of Vancouver: A Case Study of
the Housing Experiences and Coping Strategies of Recent Immigrants in Surrey and Richmond,”
The Canadian Geographer, 58: 168-187. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
Weibe, R. (2018, October). Canadian Outlook with the Chief Economist: Economic
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Yu, M., & Bai, G. (2017, December). FUNDAMENTALS AFFECTING CANADIAN
HOUSING MARKET. Retrieved April 26, 2019, from http://summit.sfu.ca/item/17821
Appendix
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The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). MLS Home Price Index Methodology.
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