Assessment 3 Lending Submission of Telstra corporation Limited Team members: Dawn Li, s4583875 Minghua Ruan, s4589345 Annie Tian, s4583868 Elvia Wang, s4599469 Belle Xu, s4583835 Table of Contents 1. Background Details............................................................................................... 2 1.1 Name of the borrower................................................................................... 2 1.2 The address of the borrower ......................................................................... 2 1.3 Major shareholders/unit holders/beneficiaries ............................................. 2 2. Overview of The Borrower .................................................................................. 3 2.1 Current borrowing ........................................................................................ 3 2.2 History of this borrower ............................................................................... 3 2.3 Individuals behind the borrower................................................................... 4 2.4 What does the borrower do to generate income ........................................... 4 2.5 Key characteristics of Telstra ....................................................................... 5 2.6 How has the business changed over time ..................................................... 5 3. Industry analysis ................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Commentary on industry .............................................................................. 6 3.2 Key strength and risks .................................................................................. 6 3.3 Nature and extent of competitive ................................................................. 7 3.4 Macroeconomic effect .................................................................................. 8 3.5 Mitigate the identified risk ......................................................................... 10 4. Financial analysis ................................................................................................ 10 4.1 Horizontal analysis ..................................................................................... 10 4.2 Vertical analysis ......................................................................................... 15 4.3 Ratio analysis (calculations are presented in appendix) ............................. 17 5. Security ................................................................................................................ 19 5.1 Key credit issues identification .................................................................. 19 5.2 Different items of security & lending margin ............................................ 20 5.3 The strength of the security ........................................................................ 22 6. Recommendation................................................................................................. 23 6.1 Proposed facility structure and pricing ....................................................... 23 6.2 Covenant ..................................................................................................... 24 6.3 The first and second way out ...................................................................... 24 7. Appendixes........................................................................................................... 26 8. Reference ............................................................................................................. 40 1 1. Background Details 1.1 Name of the borrower The borrower in this case is Telstra Corporation Limited, which is an Australian telecommunications company which builds and operates telecommunications networks, markets voice, mobile, internet access and other products and services. It is a member of the S&P/ASX 20 and Australia's largest telecommunications company by market share (Wikipedia 2020). 1.2 The address of the borrower The registered address of Telstra is located at Level 41 - Telstra Centre, 242 Exhibition Street, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 3000 (Wikipedia 2020). 1.3 Major shareholders/unit holders/beneficiaries (Source: Telstra Annual Report 2020) 2 It can be seen from the annual report that, as at 24 July 2020, it list the top twenty holders of Telstra shares. Most of them are investment banks and nominees companies. To be specific, the largest shareholder is HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited, which held 2,659,212,404 shares of Telstra, account for 22.36% of the total shares. In other words, more than one-fifth shares of Telstra were taken up by HSBC. Furthermore, other lager shareholders are J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited, Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited, BNP Paribas Nominees Pty Limited, and National Nominees Limited, they account for 12.67%, 6.93%, 5.14%, and 5.05% of the total shares (Telstra Annual Report 2020). 2. Overview of The Borrower 2.1 Current borrowing (Source: Telstra Annual Report 2020) According to the Telstra annual report, current borrowings as at 30 June 2020 are $2,763 million of carrying value and $2,779 million of Fair value (Telstra Annual Report 2020). 2.2 History of this borrower 3 Australia's telecommunications services were originally controlled by the Postmaster-General's Department, formed in 1901 as a result of the Australian Federation. On 1 July 1975, separate commissions were established by statute to replace the PMG. The Australian Telecommunications Commission, trading as Telecom Australia, ran domestic telecommunication services. In 1993, the Overseas Telecommunications Commission, was merged with the Australian Telecommunications Corporation into the short-lived Australian and Overseas Telecommunications Corporation (AOTC). The AOTC was renamed to Telstra Corporation Limited in 1993 until uniform branding of "Telstra" was introduced throughout the entire organization in 1995. Two years later Telstra official listed on ASX and then the federal government began to privatize the corporation from 1997 to 2011(Wikipedia 2020). 2.3 Individuals behind the borrower The shareholders and directors are the individuals behind the borrower. According to the annual report, Telstra totally has ten directors respectively are follows. Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director since 1 May 2015: Andrew R Penn. Non-executive Director: John P Mullen, Eelco Blok, Roy H Chestnutt, Craig W Dunn, Peter R Hearl, Elana Rubin, Nora L Scheinkestel, Margaret L Seale, Niek Jan van Damme (Telstra Annual Report 2020). Moreover, the shareholders we have already discussed above. 2.4 What does the borrower do to generate income Telstra Corporation Limited via sales products and offer services to generate income, which is Fixed-line, Mobile telephone, Internet, Subscription television, Entertainment and Contents (Telstra Annual Report 2020). 4 2.5 Key characteristics of Telstra Telstra operates through the following segments: Telstra Consumer and Small Business, Telstra Enterprise, Telstra Wholesale, Networks and IT, Telstra InfraCo and Others. In terms of management, Telstra's senior management team is responsible for overseeing and providing guidance on business activities and the maintenance of standards of conduct. Moreover, the key competitors of Telstra is Optus and Vodafone (Telstra Annual Report 2020). According to the Telstra annual report, as at the report date, the number of employees in Telstra is 29,769 (Telstra Annual Report 2020). 2.6 How has the business changed over time 1901: Australia's telecommunications services were originally controlled by the Postmaster-General's Department, formed as a result of the Australian Federation. 1989: ATC introduced new buildings and frameworks. 1993: The Overseas Telecommunications Commission was merged with the Australian Telecommunications Corporation. The AOTC was renamed to Telstra Corporation Limited. Beginning in 1997 and finalizing in 2011, the federal government began to privatize the corporation. 2008, Telstra submitted a non-complying tender issued by the federal government to build a National Broadband Network, as a result, Telstra was removed from the National Broadband Network RFP process. 2014: It was announced that in a A$11b renegotiated deal Telstra will transfer ownership of its copper and hybrid fiber-coaxial networks to NBN while disconnecting premises from tese networks. 5 3. Industry analysis 3.1 Commentary on industry Telstra is a telecommunications and technology company in Australia, which offers comprehensive communications services (Telstra 2020). It was subsumed into the telecommunications services industry. According to IBIS World (2019), the overall trend of revenue in telecommunication industry increased steadily in the past three years, but it was expected to fluctuate wildly in the future. This data illustrates that financial institutions should review and recognize the company’s financial statement prudently when it asks for a loan. However, the demand of telecommunication is expected to rise in the next 3 years, which means this industry still has better development target market. The companies may have to decline the price of service due to the internal competition. 3.2 Key strength and risks The strength of telecommunication industry can be classified as 3 parts (Industry at a Glance 2019). Barrier to entry: The industry has a high and stable barrier to entry due to the highly difficult technology issue, and the economy of scale prevent the decrease of profit margin. 6 Increasing level of assistance: In the past 10 years, government constantly provide fund support to promote the development of mobile base stations. Low volatility: Telecoms services are a necessity and demand exist regularly, so the industry volatility is low. However, there still are 3 main risks (Industry performance 2019). High competition: The fierce internal competition makes companies must cut price to keep market shares. High concentration and low profit: The high concentration shows the decrease of profitability, profits are squeezed continually. Technology: The suspension of domestic network construction leads to technical faults. 3.3 Nature and extent of competitive The nature of telecommunication industry can be considered into three parts (Key Success Factors 2019). At first, it is important for telecommunication industry to expand distribution network, which is a kind of intermediation for the process that pass the services from manufacturer to customer. The expansion is helpful for the formation of economy of scale, which is good for decrease the fixed cost and increase profitability. Furthermore, under the economy of scale, the main company can establish the strategic alliance relationship with end customer industry, for instance, pay TV and E-commerce suppliers can attract more customer market. The second key is to research and develop the newest and most effective technology. The technic in wireless and wired communication changes rapidly. For example, TPG has declared that build their own 4G network in 2018, however it ended. Due to the federal ban of 5G transactions form 7 Huawei, a new round of construction is in trouble. Thus, adopting better technologies can avoid the outdated services. The last one is to grab market share and expand popularity. On account of the rising competitive nature in telecommunication industry, the companies must occupy more shares and maintain a specialized brand. Furthermore, a good goodwill which based on the high-quality services is useful on appeal and retain target customers and absorb investment. The extent of competition in telecommunication industry is totally drastic. As the figure shows below (IBIS 2019), the market share is mainly occupied by major players and they can gain over 70 percentage of the gross profit. Thus, the big companies are turning to different areas of expertise. 3.4 Macroeconomic effect On the domestic front, according to the line chart below, the GDP of Australia in recent 3 years decrease constantly. Moreover, the rapid fall of inflation rate indicates that it is in the stage of deflation. Thus, Australia market is during the economic recession currently, and the consume level of 8 household will be affected and expected to decline, so the banks are exposed to the interest rate risk. (Source: Australia GDP, from World Bank) (Source: Inflation rate in Australia, from ABS) As for the international trade, COVID-19 and international political tensions have increased trade risks. However, the trend of telecommunication business is towards globalization. Many countries are planning to invest cross-border and liberalize markets. In conclusion, the overall fluctuated economic environment will have both negative and positive effects on telecommunication industry, but the effects are not fatal due to the industry irreplaceability. Because of the decline of interest rate, the currency liquidity will increase to keep banks loan with loose monetary policy. 9 3.5 Mitigate the identified risk As it mentioned above, banks will have sufficient cash to support lending under the loose monetary policy. However, the main risk is that the future profitability of telecommunication industry fluctuated rapidly and is difficult to estimate. Thus, the companies should make increasing profit as the first goal instead of expand market share 4. Financial analysis In order to find out whether the Telstra Ltd is suitable for the bank to go the loan, the financial position of the company should be assessed and managed. In this part, financial analysis will be presented based on the financial statement on 2020, 2019 and 2018. Moreover, the analysis will be worked out accord with the comparative analysis techniques, which are Horizontal analysis, Vertical analysis and Ratio analysis. 4.1 Horizontal analysis (Source: Telstra Annual Report in 2018, 2019 and 2020) 10 According to the financial statement over the three years, although total expenses decreased much greater than the total income does, the profit for the year decreased about 48% compared to the base year which is 2018, not showing a good profitability during the years. Moreover, from the table, the figure for the share of net loss from ventures and associated entities decreased nearly 1286% which is a huge compared to 2018, lost nearly 14 times than 2018. This indicates that not only the main service which is telecommunication has loss on its financial statement, but the retailer and the its supplier may also get loss in 2020. The increase of net finance costs (approximately 40%) shows that the cost of interest and other fees on borrowing of funds are increasing during the three years, even the increase of finance income cannot offset the finance costs. Finally, the figure of earnings per share decreased almost 50%, which means shareholders in 2020 only be able to get half as they could get in 2018 per share. 11 (Source: Telstra Annual Report in 2018, 2019 and 2020) 12 From the table of financial position, it can be seen that the total assets had a little increase about 4% over the three years. The main reason is from the increased derivative financial assets (increased 96%) and Right-of-use assets (started from 2020). Telstra may use derivative financial assets to hedge the financial risks that under the negative macroeconomy. Moreover, Although the total liabilities in 2020 shows a slight decrease (about 0.81%) than in 2018, the borrowing shows a dramatic growth of nearly 70% than 2018, which may indicate Telstra may in a tough stage in 2020 for higher borrowing but a low return. In terms of the equity, the total equity of Telstra increased approximately 3.61% compared with the base year. Although there is a small change in total equity, it is not easy to have a growth in the tough year of 2020. 13 (Source: Telstra Annual Report in 2018, 2019 and 2020) Generally, the cash flow position is not seeming well, most of the figures have decreased during the three years. Although the decrease of outflow of cash is greater than that of inflow, the net cash flows generated from daily operation have a decrease of about 19%, and the cash flows generated by the investment activities 14 decreases approximately 24%. Therefore, from the perspective view of cash flow, the Telstra may not good enough to afford more loans. 4.2 Vertical analysis (Source: Telstra Annual Report in 2018, 2019 and 2020) The above table is the vertical analysis for the income statement of Telstra in 2018, 2019 and 2020. From the table, the abnormal change of proportion of each aspect can be found in it. Most of the proportion shown very slight change among the three years. However, the percentage of profit for the year is decreasing year to year from 2018 to 2020, decreased from 12.15% to 7.03% of the total income which may increase the possibility of facing the liquidity risk and insolvency risk. 15 (Source: Telstra Annual Report in 2018, 2019 and 2020) 16 Comparing the percentage among the three years, the current assets has decreased from 17.06% to 14.72% which means the short-term liquidity of Telstra in 2020 is worse than in 2018. This means it has more possibility for Telstra facing liquidity problem in 2020. However, other proportions are not showing much changes, which may indicate that even under the tough period in 2020, Telstra is working under a relatively methodical way in daily operation. 4.3 Ratio analysis (calculations are presented in appendix) In order to further analyze Telstra's short-term liquidity, operation capacity, long-term solvency, profitability and development capability. At the same time to ensure that our analysis is rigorous and objective, we conducted a series of ratio analyses based on these items. According to current ratio (0.647 in 2020, 0.764 in 2019, 0.830 in 2018), quick ratio (0.606 in 2020, 0.718 in 2019, 0.774 in 2018), receivables turnover ratio (3.728 times in 2020, 4.045 times in 2019, 3.864 times in 2018) and average collection period (97.916 days in 2020, 90.242 days in 2019, 94.463 in 2018). It can be found that Telstra's short-term liquidity and solvency has been weakening from 2018 to 2020. Additionally, a low value of both the current and quick ratios suggests that Telstra does not have enough cash or liquid assets to meet its liabilities. Once meet the sudden financial situation, the company that lacks liquidity is easy to go bankruptcy because of the capital chain rupture. From the current cash debt coverage (0.714 in 2020, 0.729 in 2019, 0.963 in 2018),cash debt coverage (0.240 in 2020, 0.238 in 2019, 0.306 in 2018) and assets turnover (0.534 times in 2020, 0.653 in 2019, 0.675 in 2018). The higher these values the faster the company's accounts receivable can be recovered, and the stronger the company's operational capabilities are. However, Telstra is not seeming well in terms of operational capabilities. It 17 has low receivables turnover, long average collection period and low assets turnover showing a bad management quality and asset utilization efficiency of Telstra. Thus, they should pay more attention to this aspect, so as to improve the sales ability and market share. To analyze Telstra's long-term solvency, we calculated its debt asset ratio (65.887% in 2020, 65.883% in 2019, 65.782% in 2018) and time interest earned (3.413 times in 2020, 4.265 times in 2019, 7.105 times in 2018). On one hand, Telstra has been taking too many debts, for the debt asset ratio is always more than 65%, and its current ratio is low. It looks that the profitability is not good enough in Telstra. Therefore, at this stage, Telstra does not have sufficient solvency and is not suitable for further borrowing. On the other hand, time interest earned is decreasing year by year which also further indicates insufficient financial flexibility and a high possibility of bankruptcy. In the study of profitability, we used the ROA (4.228% in 2020, 5.038% in 2019, 8.396% in 2018), net profit margin (7.756% in 2020, 7.728% in 2019, 12.333% in 2018 ), EPS (15.3 cents in 2020, 18.1 in 2019, 30.2 in 2018) and price-earnings ratio (2.046 in 2020, 2.127 in 2019, 0.868 in 2018). From the data results, most of the ratios are declining year by year which indicates that Telstra's profitability is getting weaker. The poor difference between the ratios may be caused by its poor asset utilization, sales level, technical capabilities, and management capabilities. Moreover, Telstra's price-toearnings ratio has risen compared to 2018. This may be a signal that Telstra's stock price has a bubble, investment risks will increase and investors may lose confidence because of that. To investigate Telstra's development capability, we calculate its total asset growth rate which is 4.259% in 2020, -0.314% in 2019 and 1.707% in 2018. Through numerical values, we can find that Telstra's development ability is 18 weak, which also objectively shows that Telstra's management belongs to the type of steady development. In general, Telstra's performance in short-term liquidity, operation capacity, long-term solvency, profitability, development capability and credit capability is not good enough for our bank to go for a loan from the financial perspective. We believe that if Telstra wants to improve the current situation, it needs to conduct a comprehensive analysis from the company's business model, technical level, sales capacity, marketing problems, product quality problems, etc., and formulate a new operation strategy with the goal of increasing cash flow and revenue. In this way, Telstra can avoid the risk of bankruptcy and turn losses into gains. 5. Security 5.1 Key credit issues identification The existing security structure of Telstra is quite stable, but few credit issues can be noticed from Telstra’s financial report. Trade and other receivables and contract assets, takes a large proportion of the current assets for 78.41%, while the proportion that cash and cash equivalents is 7.64%. This reflects that Telstra may need to focus on the managing short-term solvency problem and the of the risk of customers’ default. (Source: Telstra 2020 Annual Report) 19 It shows the amount of committed bank facilities. Once the contract is made, the lender needs to advance money to the borrower when requested (Kagan 2020). According to the table, Telstra may need to repay the credit facilities in the future with a large amount of money. Also, their amount for debts and payables are large, which shows that the debts Telstra need to pay is considered to be large and thus the company should develop their repayment ability as well. Furthermore, property and other equipment occupies 56.78% of the noncurrent asset, which is fairly a large proportion. It is better for Telstra to make some changes of their asset portfolio for diversification. 5.2 Different items of security & lending margin After analyzing Telstra’s Statement of Financial Position, different securities are recognized. Bank deposits are suitable for being a collateral. Furthermore, inventories, such as finished goods, can also be used, and lenders may sell the goods when 20 default to cover the losses. In addition, trade and other receivables can also be considered. For non-current asset, the company’s land and buildings and the equipment can be considered as securities. The properties and equipment usually have high values with a low depreciation, which provides a better protection for lenders. Furthermore, according to the report, Telstra had an amount of $1,158 million property, plant and equipment (PPE) which are under construction. Moreover, intangible assets (other than goodwill) can also be a security for loans. Lending margin is the gap between the mortgaged property’s value against the borrowed loan and the actual amount advanced to the borrower (Lending Margin 2020). The calculation formula is: 21 Due to there are no fair values given, we used the carrying amount to calculate. We used the latest data in the report for determining the security as the data for 2020 is more valuable comparing to that in 2019. As the company has no future borrowing or purchasing plans, we considered that it would be similar to the previous amounts. Thus, from the previous years’ data, we determined a $500,000,000 loan for the estimation. The following table illustrated the assets that can be used as collateral, and their lending margin. Lending margin is a method that observes how much can the security can cover the loan and to decide whether the loan should be granted given the collateral. A larger lending margin suggests the collateral has a higher value. For example, as lands and buildings have a relatively high margin, a loan would more likely to be given having it as the collateral, and the company will probably be charged a lower interest. 5.3 The strength of the security Collateral is generally a protection for lenders that allows them to recover the losses after the borrower’s default by selling the secured items, which is also the second way out for lenders. Comparing to the other two ways, true payments and targeting the intangibles, securities it is more likely to recover the losses even though some may hard to sell. However, having securities 22 such as the company’s land and buildings can offset some risk from giving out the loan. 6. Recommendation Apply the research and 5Cs analysis, Telstra, as the largest telecommunications company, is in a promising industry and a good customer flow and reputation. Based on the report, their cash flow decreased and the company’s profitability become weaker in the past 3 years. However, even though their financial status moved downward, the amount changed slightly, which suggested that the corporation’s operation is relatively stable. Furthermore, Telstra is aiming for increasing their profit in the future for changing the current financial situation by developing their strategies. Moreover, the company have fairly sufficient asset and capital, and the government provided Telstra financial support for them to develop, thus, it is unlikely to default and some assets can be used as a collateral. Also, the Altman’s Z score is 2.03, which is between 1.80 and 2.99. Thus, the loan can be given. Therefore, we determined to give Telstra an amount of $500,000,000, 10year fixed rate loan. 6.1 Proposed facility structure and pricing The facility structure, firstly, the loan is sufficient for asset purchasing and replacing and other operations. Secondly, the company’s cash flow is able to cover the annual debt and interest payment. Thirdly, even though the cash flow seemed to decrease it is still sufficient and the loan may help the company to improve their profitability and operating ability. Lastly, the security’s value is higher than the loan amount, thus it may sufficiently cover our losses when default. According to researches on other banks’ loan terms, we concluded that most fixed rate long-term loan’s interest rate is around 5%-6.5% per annum. Thus, we will charge a 6% interest rate on the loan. 23 6.2 Covenant Loan amount: $500,000,000 Term: 10-year term Date starts: 1st October 2020 Repayment day: 30th September each year before the final payment Interest charged: 6% per annum, fixed rate Amount paid: $80,000000 per annum (including interest) Security: Lands, buildings and equipment, valued $872,000,000 Default Clause: Default less than 1 month, the bank will charge an extra 0.25% for the delay. Default more than 1 month less than 2 months, 0.5% extra fees will be charged. Default more than 2 months less than 3 months, 1.5% extra fees will be charged. Default more than 3 months, the collateral will be confiscated and 3% extra fees will be charged. Fees: $5,000 paid annually for loan service during the period. Paid together with the annual payment on 30th September each year. (Note: no penalties will be given to the borrower for early debt payment) 6.3 The first and second way out For the first way, the strength is that the debts will be covered through the company’s current cash flow trend. However, if the company is not profitable and facing solvency risk, we may not collect the amount of money that was lent out. On the other hand, the second way is to use land and buildings as a security for the loan. As the collateral is valuable enough and have low depreciation 24 rate, it is good for us as a loan protection. Nevertheless, if the company defaults, the property may be hard to sell and result in losses. 25 7. Appendixes (Source: Telstra Annual Report 2020) (Source: Telstra Annual Report 2020) 26 (Source:2020 Telstra Annual Report p81) 27 (Source:2020 Telstra Annual Report p83) 28 (Source:2020 Telstra Annual Report p84) 29 (Source:2020 Telstra Annual Report p85) 30 (Source:2019 Telstra Annual Report p81) 31 (Source:2019 Telstra Annual Report p83) 32 (Source:2019 Telstra Annual Report p84) 33 (Source:2019 Telstra Annual Report p85) 34 (Source:2018 Telstra Annual Report p59) 35 (Source:2018 Telstra Annual Report p61) 36 (Source:2018 Telstra Annual Report p62) 37 38 39 8. Reference Telstra 2020, Wikipedia, viewed 7 September 2020, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telstra#cite_note-12>. 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