DEPARTMENT OF FOIS FACULTY OF BUSINESS BROCK UNIVERSITY SOLUTION MIDTERM EXAMINATION I Course: MBAB5P42 – Spring 2005 Instructor: M. A. Ayadi Question 1. (10 marks) Briefly define each of the following terms: 1. Main properties of financial assets. Financial assets are claims to the returns generated by real assets and have the following properties: (i) Moneyness, (ii) Divisibility, (iii) Reversibility, (iv) Term of Maturity, (v) Liquidity, (vi) Convertibility, and (vii) Tax Status: rates at which the income generated by ownership of the asset is taxed. 2. Limited liability asset. A limited liability asset is one whose price is never negative. If you hold a limited liability asset, the worst thing that can happen is that the price goes to zero, in which case, the simple gross return is zero and the simple net return is –1 = –100% 3. Buying on the margin. If I want to buy a stock, but I do not have the funds, I need to buy on margin. When buying on margin, the broker (who, in turn, is borrowing from a bank, or in the money market) lends me part of the funds I need for the purchase, while the stocks purchased are the collateral to the loan. Still, there is a minimum percentage of the margin purchase that I must finance with my own funds, this is the initial margin requirement. 4. Auction markets. Auction markets are centralized, and buyers and sellers interact closely with each other. The presence of intermediaries is limited. Example of an auction market: the NYSE and major Canadian markets. If the auction is continuous, trades may occur at any time. Technically, only final traders are needed for such a market to operate, although it would not be very effective. Intermediaries, market makers or specialists, smooth out the transitory variations in supply and demand, standing ready to buy and sell securities at a price that is similar to the price of the last previous trade. Whereas, in a call market (or batch) auction buyers and sellers are pooled together at a given time. An aggregate price is determined and all trading takes place at that price. Trading can only take place at these times. A call auction is used to open daily transactions on the NYSE 5. Stop-loss orders. The broker is instructed to buy (sell) a stated number of shares immediately after the price has reached higher (lower) stop price, Pstop. This can be viewed as a conditional market order Stop-sell: sell immediately after the price has reached a lower stop price. Stop-buy: buy immediately after the price has reached a higher stop price Question 2. (20 marks) As a CEO of a newly founded mutual fund, you have $100 in cash. Suppose that you can buy shares of WWW Inc. for $50 each and shares of PPP Inc. for $25 each right now. You expect the price of WWW to go up to $60 in one year, and you believe that PPP shares should go down to $15, 1. Calculate the net return on these two stocks. (6 marks) R1,t +1 = 60 − 50 15 − 25 = 0.20 for WWW and R2,t +1 = = −0.40 for PPP 50 25 2. What is the best return you can get by the end of the year if you beliefs are correct and you are not allowed to short? (6 marks) Using portfolios: R1,t +1 = 0.20 for WWW and R2,t +1 = −0.40 for PPP. To maximize the net return R p ,t +1 = w1t R1,t +1 + w2t R2,t +1 = 0.2 w1t − 0.4 w2t you should choose w1t as large as possible and w2t as small as possible. You are not allowed to short, so the weights of the portfolio w1t and w2t cannot be negative. Therefore, the optimal weights are w1t = 1 and w2t = 0 , which means investing all of your money in WWW ($100 for 2 shares WWW). The optimal R p ,t +1 = 0.2 × 1 − 0.4 × 0 = 0.20 . 3. What is the return if you are able to short 4 shares of PPP? If you beliefs about PPP are incorrect, and PPP shares appreciate to $40, what is the return on your portfolio after you shorted 4 PPP shares? (6 marks) If you are allowed to short PPP, you should short as much as possible your net return. Shorting 4 shares of PPP at $25 gives you an extra $100 worth of cash, so you have $200 to invest in 4 shares of WWW. The optimal portfolio weights are w1t = 2 and w2t = −1 The net return is R p ,t +1 = 2 × 0.2 + ( −1) × ( −0.4) = 80% If the PPP shares turn out to be $40 instead of $15, then R2,t +1 = 40 − 25 = 0.60 and 25 R p ,t +1 = 2 × 0.2 + (−1) × (0.6) = −20% . If your beliefs run out to be incorrect, you face a loss. 4. Comment on the advantages and disadvantages of shorting stock. (2 marks) Shorting is the most natural way to express a bearish view on a stock. In practice, there are number of difficulties associated with shorting. One is that the owner of the stock has the right to recall the stock at any time, in which case the short-seller is forced to quickly find another lender to be able to maintain his position. There are circumstances where this can become expensive or even impossible because there are few willing lenders. In such a case, the investor may be forced out of a short position. The margin requirements associated with short positions can also be cumbersome, especially for small investors. Question 3. (15 marks) The endowment of Green University had the following returns over the last four years: -1%, 6%, 3%, 0%. The endowment of Yellow University had the following returns: -3%, 8%, 2%, 1%. 1. Calculate the sample mean (arithmetic average) return for each endowment. (3 marks) E(RG) = (-0.01+0.06+0.03+0)/4 = 0.02 = 2 % MBAB5P42 2 Solution Midterm 1 E(RY) = (-0.03+0.08+0.02+0.01)/4 = 0.02 = 2 % 2. Calculate the sample variance of return for each endowment. (3 marks) Var(RG) = (1/4)*(-0.01-0.02)2 + (1/4)*(0.06-0.02)2 + (1/4)*(0.03-0.02)2 + (1/4)*(0-0.02)2 = 0.00075 Var(RY) = (1/4)*(-0.03-0.02)2 + (1/4)*(0.08-0.02)2 + (1/4)*(0.02-0.02)2 + (1/4)*(0.01-0.02)2 = 0.00155 3. Calculate the sample covariance and correlation between the Green and Yellow endowment returns. (6 marks) Cov(RG,RY) = (1/4)*(-0.01-0.02)*(-0.03-0.02) + (1/4)*(0.06-0.02)*(0.08-0.02) + (1/4)*(0.030.02)*(0.02-0.02) + (1/4)*(0-0.02)*(0.01-0.02) = 0.001025 Corr(RG,RY) = Cov(RG,RY)/(σ(RG)* σ(RY)) = 0.951 4. Write a short paragraph comparing the two universities’ investment performance. Do their endowments appear to be invested in similar ways? Can you say whether one university or the other has better performance? (3 marks) The correlation of the returns on the endowments of Green University and Yellow University is very high. This suggests that they are invested in similar assets, perhaps in the same asset classes. However, Yellow’s endowment seems to be invested in riskier assets than Green’s endowment. Since Yellow doesn’t seem to earn a higher return than Green and Green seems to be exposed to less risk it seems that Green’s investment strategy is preferable to Yellow’s. Question 4. (20 marks) 1. You are able to invest in many stocks, each of which has a standard deviation of return of 40% and a correlation of 0.25 with each other stock. A. As the number of stocks increases, what happens to the variance of an equal-weighted portfolio of stocks? In the limit where the number of stocks is infinite, what is the variance of the equal-weighted portfolio? (5 marks) We know that the variance of a portfolio with N equal-weighted stocks is 1 2 1 σ + (1 − ) ρσ 2 N N As long as the standard deviation of return and the correlation between stocks remain constant, the variance of the equal-weighted portfolio decreases as the number of stock (N) increases. In the limiting case, the variance of the portfolio is given by ρσ 2 . Using the numbers given in the example, the limiting variance equals to 0.25 × 0.40 × 0.40 = 0.04 B. Suppose you require that the variance of your portfolio is no more than 0.01 greater than the variance you calculated in (A). What is the smallest number of stocks you have to hold in your portfolio to achieve this? (5 marks) Using the information in part a) we want know that: 0.05 ≥ 1 2 1 σ + (1 − ) ρσ 2 N N Substituting the numbers from the example, we have: MBAB5P42 3 Solution Midterm 1 0.05 ≥ 1 1 0.16 + (1 − )0.04 N N Manipulating the equation so that N is isolated yields N ≥ 12 Question 5. (20 marks) Consider the four stocks in the following table. P1 represents closing price on day 1, and Q1 represents the total shares outstanding at the market close of day 1. Initially, the price-weighted index only includes stocks A, B, and C. But after the market closes on the first day (at t = 1), stock C is removed from the index and stock D is added to the index. None of the stock pays a dividend. Stock A B C D P0 92 23.25 145 90 Q0 137 58 102 70 P1 87 24.25 153 85 Q1 137 58 102 70 P2 89 23.25 54 65 Q2 137 58 306 70 1. Calculate the rate of return on a price-weighted index of three stocks (A, B, and C) for day 1. (7 marks) RA = (87-92)/92 = -5.43% RB = (24.25-23.25)/23.25 = 4.30% RC = (153-145)/145 = 5.52% wA = 92/(92+23.25+145) = 35.35% wB = 23.25/(92+23.25+145) = 8.93% wC = 145/(92+23.25+145) = 55.72% It follows that the return on a price-weighted index of A, B, and C is 1.537% 2. Calculate the rate of return on the price-weighted index of the three stocks (now A, B, and D) for day 2. (4 marks) RA = (89-87)/87 = 2.30% RB = (23.25-24.25)/24.25 = -4.12% RD = (65-85)/85 = -23.53% wA = 87/(87+24.25+85) = 44.33% wB = 24.25/(87+24.25+85) = 12.36% wD = 85/(87+24.25+85) = 43.31% It follows that the return on a price-weighted index of A, B, and D is –9.682% 3. Calculate the rate of return on the value-weighted index for all four stocks for the two-day period that includes day 1 and day 2. (4 marks) RA = (89–92)/92 = -3.26% MCA = 92 x 137 = 12604 RB = (23.25–23.25)/23.25 = 0% MCB = 23.25 x 58 = 1348.5 RC = (54(3)–145)/145 = 11.72% MCC = 145 x 102 = 14790 RD= (65 – 90) / 90 = -27.78% MCD = 90 x 70 = 6300 Total MC = 12604 + 1348.5 + 14790 + 6300 = 35042.5 wA = 12604 / 35042.5 = 0.3597, wB = 0.0385, wC = 0.4221, wD =0.1798 So rvw = 0.3597(-3.26%) + 0.0385(0%) + 0.4221(11.72%) + 0.1798(-27.78%) = -0.0122 4. If the initial value of the equally-weighted index of stocks A, B and C was 1718 at the beginning of day 1 (at t = 0), what is the value of the equally-weighted index at the end of day 1. (at t = 1)? (4 marks) RA = (87-92)/92 = -5.43% MBAB5P42 4 Solution Midterm 1 RB = (24.25–23.25)/23.25 = 4.3% RC = (153-145)/145 = 5.52% REW = (-5.43% + 4.3% + 5.52%)/3 = 1.46% Ending = Beginning(1+ REW) Ending = 1718(1+0.0146) = 1743 Question 6. (15 marks) You have the following information on four different securities: Investment 1 2 3 4 Expected Return 0.12 0.15 0.21 0.24 Std. Deviation 0.30 0.30 0.16 0.21 The utility function is given by: U = E (r ) − 0.005σ 2 (r ) 1. Calculate the certainty equivalent for the four investments. (5 marks) The certainty equivalent is given by the utility of the risky asset. Investment 1 2 3 4 Certainty Equivalent 0.1196 0.1496 0.2099 0.2398 2. Which investment (only one position) would you select? Explain. (5 marks) The fourth investment would be selected since it offers the highest utility. 3. Redo (1) and (2) if you’re a risk neutral investor. (5 marks) In this case, the certainty equivalent is given by the expected return and the fourth investment would be chosen since it has the highest expected return. MBAB5P42 5 Solution Midterm 1