Monitoring social and geopolitical
events with Big Data
Boston University Alumni Club of Spain
Tomasa Rodrigo
April 2018
Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data
Index
01 Opportunities in the digital era.
Big Data at BBVA Research
02 Monitoring geopolitical and
social events
Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data
01
Opportunities in the digital era.
Big Data at BBVA Research
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
Traditional data could not answer some relevant questions…
Social awareness and the Arab Spring
Political events and social reaction
Natural disasters and epidemics
… preventing us to measure their economic impact…
… in a world with increasing risks and uncertainty
The use of Big Data and Data science techniques allows
us to quantify these trends
4
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
New framework in the digital era
Novel data-driven computational approaches are needed to exploit the
new opportunities in the new digital era where data can be used to study
the world in real time, both at micro or macro level
New data
availability
Combination of historical
data with real time data
Better and faster
infrastructure
Advanced data science
techniques and algorithms
New answers to
old questions
Higher computational abilities
to face more data granularity
5
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
… which needs the development of new competences to take
advantage of it
Making the right
Developing the
Deepening the
Interpreting the
questions
data management
statistical and
results:
and programming
econometric
summarize,
capabilities to work
skills to analyze
describe and
with large-scale
and deal with
analyze the
datasets
high-dimensional
information
data
New data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions
and the tools they use to answer them
6
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
Big Data at BBVA Research
Our work
Our datasets
O u r r e s u lt s
• We analyze geopolitical,
political, social and
economic issues using
large- scale databases and
quantitative data-driven
methods rather than just
qualitative introspection
• Media data to exploit news
intensity, geographic density
of events (location
intelligence) and emotions
across the world (sentiment
analysis)
• We are at the research
frontier in the geopolitical
and economic area
contributing to the
innovation and increasing
our internal and external
reach
• BBVA aggregate and
anonymized data from
clients digital footprint
• Data from the web (Central
Banks’ reports among
others)
7
Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data
02
Monitoring geopolitical and
social events
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
External databases: GDELT
Global Database on Events Location and Tone
Open database of human
society from every corner of
the globe dating back to
1979 …
… georeferenced across
the entire planet…
… including over 300
events around the world
and more than 30000
themes…
…and collecting emotions
using some of the most
sophisticated algorithms
9
(More information can be found in the annex)
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
Tracking Geopolitics on real time…
is useful to identify the main hot spots and potential spillovers
Conflict Intensity Map 2017-18
(Number of conflicts/ Total events)
10
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
… getting the historical perspective, main hot spots and
contagion effects
BBVA Research World Protest and Conflict
Intensity Index 1979-2018
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Developed Markets
ATAM
N. Africa & Middle East
Conflict
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EM Europe & CIS
Protests
World Protest Intensity Map 1979- 2017
USA
UK
Norway
Sweden
Austria
Germany
France
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Bulgaria
Romania
Croatia
Turkey
Russia
Ukraine
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Peru
11
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
Instability in the MENA region had an important spill over
effect: the refugee crisis
ISIS presence in the Middle East and the
neighborhood in 2016
BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map in 2015-18
(Number of media citations about refugees’ inflows –orangeand outflows –red)
(Number of news referring to ISIS presence / Total events)
Caucasus
Europe
ISIS expanded to the North
Caucasus as part of its wider
international strategy.
Attacks in Europe revived
fears and threats, as well
as nationalist claims.
Afghanistan
ISIS presence in
Afghanistan was also
important.
North Africa
ISIS stronghold in Libya
and its expansion around
the neighborhood
deteriorated the already
critical situation.
Middle East
Despite some ISIS setbacks
in Syria and Iraq thanks to
the International Coalition,
threats and risks remained.
12
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
Understanding the refugees transit corridors through the
media and high frequency data
Country network on refugees: media coverage
(Edges thickness reflect how
often each pair of countries
were mentioned together.
Nodes size show the centrality.
Clusters capture the potential
transit corridors.
Turkey, Italy and Greece
appear as central
hubs for refugees
crossing the
Mediterranean, before
they transit to other
European countries.
Syria has become the
world’s largest driver
of migration in recent
years. The
neighboring countries
like Iran and
Lebanon have also
host a significant
number of refugees.
13
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
The refugee crisis has awakened interest in the world
media, specially in some regions
Refugees in the media: worldcloud of main
commented topics together with refugee
Refugees in the media: media coverage of
refugees by region
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
Europe
Asia
Feb-18
Nov-17
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
0
America
14
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
This situation led to the EU & Turkey deal on refugees to
reduce the number of refugees that goes to Europe
Daily and Weekly Average Refugee Arrivals to
Greece
Media sentiment on Turkey – European Union
relationship
(UNHCR estimates)
(Lower values indicate a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations)
12,000
1
Refugee Deal
Refugee Deal
0
10,000
-1
8,000
-2
6,000
-3
4,000
Daily
Source: BBVA Research and UNHCR
Weekly
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
-6
Dec-15
0
Nov-15
-5
Oct-15
2,000
Apr-15
-4
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
Economic effects of the refugee inflows in Europe
MACROECONOMIC IMPACT
Short term
Increase of aggregate
demand
POLICY RESPONSE
High uncertainty and
heterogeneous effects
depending on the country
Fiscal expansion
Medium - Long term
Labour market
GDP
A comprehensive policy
response and a long-term
strategy is necessary to
turn into positive the
macroeconomic effects
in the medium to long term.
Fiscal sustainability
16
Monitoring economic, social
Big Data
and geopolitical
& Big Models
events
at BBVA
withResearch
Big Data
You can find us at:
bbvaresearch.com
bbva-research
Tomasa Rodrigo
@BBVAResearch
@TomasaRodrigo
Thank you!
Monitoring social and geopolitical
events with Big Data
Boston University Alumni Club of Spain
Tomasa Rodrigo
April 2018