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"There is nothing permanent except change."
EMERGING DYNAMICS OF WARFARE – ROLE OF ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE (AI) & ROBOTICS AND HOW INDIA CAN
EXPLOIT IT
INTRODUCTION
1.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has advanced in recent years at lightning speeds with a
wide range of applications in both, civil and military. Military is persistently on the pursuit of
better, faster, and stronger weapons or technologies and this is exactly what AI provides. AI
has the potential to impact “all military domains (i.e. land, sea, air, space, and information)
and all levels of warfare (i.e. political, strategic, operational and tactical).” 1
2.
For this reason, many experts have considered AI to be revolutionary; yet they differ
in their perspectives on AI. Some consider AI as a positive development as it would reduce
human causalities with strategic and tactical advantages. However, others caution on the
fact that if not controlled and used properly, AI may result in another world war2. Even
though AI is still at its juvenile stage, it has the capability to alter the landscape of the
security sector. It can change the economic and military balances in the international
system.
UNDERSTANDING AI
3.
Considered as the 4th Industrial Revolution3, AI has become a reality. AI itself should
not be considered as a specific weapon but it should be seen as “an enabler, a general1
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purpose technology with a multitude of applications.”4 So, while “AI could potentially enable
a number of military innovations, it is not a military innovation itself.” Many world leaders
have made important statements that bring to the fore the significance of AI which can be
summarized with what Putin stated on September 2017: whoever becomes the leader in AI,
will rule the world.5
4.
AI has been developing since 1956, but it gathered steam effectively from 2010 due
to three enabling developments.
(a) The availability of ‘Big Data’ sources.
(b) Improvements to Machine Learning approaches.
(c) Increases in computer processing power.6
5.
We can speak about two types of AI.
(a)
Narrow AI (NAI). NAI refers to the functions like simulation of an activity or
process, image & speech recognition, and faster database management. Currently,
all known AI developments fall within NAI.
(b)
Gen AI (GAI). GAI is used to denote systems capable of human-level
intelligence and that can conduct a series of autonomous tasks. Decades are
needed to get GAI to its full capability.
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Human-Machine Relationship
6.
When it comes to the application of AI in military, the human-machine relationship is
an important aspect.
(a)
Human in the loop. The machine is in the control of environment; however, it
is the human who takes the final decision. This is the semi-autonomous system.
(b)
Human on the loop. The machine can act and decide on its own.
Nevertheless, the human has the possibility to observe the behaviour of the machine
and intervein if necessary. This is a supervised autonomous system.
(c)
Human out of the loop. A fully autonomous system. Here, while the machine
acts and decides by itself, the human does not have any control over the machine
and remains out of the loop.
7.
Currently, in the military, we can speak about the application of the first or second
case, i.e. drones and precision guided missiles, while the AI application has not yet reached
the third level of full autonomy.
AI Military Applications
8.
The rapid development of AI has been followed with positive impacts in different
fields, including medicine and transportation; however, when it comes to the military
application, a lot of discussions are raised. It is widely accepted that, AI has the capacity to
transform military activities like logistics, intelligence, surveillance and weapons design.7
For the time being, the uncertainties that encircle AI and its use have raised a lot of debates
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among military strategists. Debates are generally related to the impact of AI on the way in
which warfare is conducted and how much autonomy should be given to the weapons.
9.
For military, AI can be used (but not limited to) as follows:
(a)
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. Based on the image-
recognition algorithms, AI can be used to assist in processing and interpreting
information. An example for this is the American Project Maven8 which was
programmed to process and interpret the information received from the videos
captured by drones. Here, the computer vision and machine learning algorithms
were incorporated into intelligence collection to comb through footage from UAVs
and automatically identify hostile activity for targeting. AI is intended to automate the
work of human analysts who currently spend hours sifting through videos for
actionable information, potentially freeing analysts to make more efficient and timely
decisions based on the data.
(b)
Further there can be algorithms for multilingual speech recognition and
translation in noisy environments, geo-locating images without the associated
metadata, fusing 2-D images to create 3-D models, and building tools to infer a
building’s function based on pattern-of-life analysis.
(c)
Autonomous platforms. By using AI, drones, planes, ships, tanks, etc. will
not need a human to control or direct their actions. It is expected that autonomous
systems will replace humans in tasks that are considered as “dull, dangerous, or
dirty.”9 Such tasks may include long-duration intelligence collection and analysis,
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clean up environments contaminated by chemical weapons, or sweep routes for
improvised explosive devices.
(d)
Logistics. AI may have future utility in the military logistics. The US Air Force,
for example, is using AI for predictive aircraft maintenance. Instead of making repairs
when an aircraft breaks or in accordance with maintenance schedules, the USAF is
testing an AI-enabled approach that tailors maintenance schedules to the needs of
individual aircraft. This approach, currently used by the F-35’s Autonomic Logistics
Information System, extracts real-time sensor data embedded in the aircraft’s
engines and other onboard systems and feeds the data into a predictive algorithm to
determine when technicians need to inspect the aircraft or replace parts. This is
definitely a case for India to consider for maintenance of its own fleet, not just in IAF,
but also in IN & IA.
(e)
Cyberspace Operations. AI will be a key technology in advancing military
cyber operations. Relying on human intelligence alone in cyberspace is “a losing
strategy.” Conventional cybersecurity tools look for historical matches to known
malicious code, so hackers only have to modify small portions of that code to
circumvent the defence. AI-enabled tools including Machine Deep Learning, on the
other hand, can be trained to detect anomalies in broader patterns of network
activity, thus presenting a more comprehensive and dynamic barrier to attack.
(f)
Information Operations and “Deep Fakes”. AI is enabling increasingly
realistic photo, audio, and video forgeries, or “deep fakes,” that adversaries could
deploy as part of their information operations. Indeed, deep fake technology may be
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already in use against India to generate false news reports, influence public
discourse, erode public trust, and attempt to blackmail service personnel &
diplomats.
(g)
Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). LAWS are a special class
of weapon systems that use sensor suites and computer algorithms to independently
identify a target and employ an onboard weapon system to engage and destroy the
target without manual human control of the system. Although these systems
generally do not yet exist, it is believed they would enable military operations in
communications-degraded or -denied environments in which traditional systems may
not be able to operate.
(j)
At the November 2020 meeting of member countries of the Convention on
Conventional Weapons (CCW) at the United Nations in Geneva, diplomats could not
agree on a binding common approach towards the issues and decided to continue
talks regulating LAWS or fully autonomous weapons for the next two years. At the
UN level, at least 28 governments are demanding a ban on AI weapons, while both
the US and Russia have blocked any moves to form legally binding agreements on
autonomous weaponry. At the same time, China announced it would join the ban
group, saying it would support prohibiting fully autonomous weapons, but clarified
Beijing was only against their use on the battlefield and not their production and
development.
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(k)
Command and Control. Lastly, as algorithms develop further, AI may be
used for command and control, including battle management, by analysing large sets
of data and making forecasts to direct human action.
AI’s Impact on the Character of the Warfare
10.
As AI is making inroads in the military affairs, on one hand stand those scholars that
approach the application of AI sceptically, as they bring to the fore the fact that humans can
lose control over the machines which would wreak havoc. 10 Furthermore, there is also the
possibility that states as well as the non-state actors,11 including the terrorist organizations,
will be able to use the AI systems further deepening the asymmetry of warfare. On the other
hand, AI machines are seen as a positive development as they would replace the human
soldiers in dangerous combat and as a result the human loses will be less. Moreover, these
machines may prove more beneficial in long-duration operations where humans cannot
endure.
11.
However, regarding the impact scale of AI there are three possible positions.
(a) Minimal Impact.
(b) Evolutionary Impact.
(c) Revolutionary Impact.
12.
Those experts who argue on the minimal impact are mainly concerned with the
technical aspect of AI and the military organizations’ willingness to use this technology.
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Accordingly, they contend that the problems that could result from the use of AI will make it
incompatible for military applications. Regarding military organizations, some bureaucracies
are not open to radical changes such as AI and as a result they would resist the application
of AI in the military. The experts who believe in the evolutionary impact of AI, accept the
fact that AI will play a crucial role in warfare -even though GAI is unlikely to develop in the
near future- yet they call for the importance of the human presence as this would keep the
AI from taking control over the warfare. The last group of experts that supports the idea that
AI will have a revolutionary impact on warfare contend that the transition from the industrial
era of warfare into the information era, in which gathering, exploiting, and disseminating
information will be the most consequential aspect of combat operations, AI’s capability to
process a large amount of data in a noticeably short time will be a crucial wartime
advantage, allowing quicker and better decisions.
13.
Despite these discussions, no one doubts the fact that the character of warfare will
be changed.
(a)
Firstly, warfare will be pushed to the limits in terms of time scale. AI’s capacity
to react on machine speed will accelerate the pace of combat12.
(b)
The current military structure and organizations will change as new concepts
of operations evolve (e.g. swarm drones).
(c)
AI will provide the opportunity to cope with a huge amount of data available
for analysis. AI systems will be able to provide results or solutions that humans may
not be able to think about, especially when found in combat. This would serve as an
advantage over the enemy.
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Why AI?
14.
AI is now considered as the leverage to those states which use it, not only in the
civil aspects of life but also (and most importantly) in the military. It will particularly help
states to gain economic and military advantages over their competitors and it will redefine
the current balances of power as the machines will be more accurate and faster than
humans in logistics, battlefield and decision making. However, the repercussions would be
detrimental for the states that fail to adopt this technology in their military.
15.
With the help of AI, the militaries will be able to perform high risk missions for a long
period of time, something that cannot be done by humans. As such barring the initial
developmental costs, AI will be highly cost effective as and when the mass production is
pressed in.
16.
Moreover, especially for democracies, (as in case for India or USA) AI will make the
legitimation of war easier by the governments as it reduces the human participation in the
battlefield and as a result minimizes the human causalities. For autocratic regimes, i.e.
China, application of AI in the military would help the government to concentrate the power
to conduct war in only a small trustable group of people, which would be translated into
greater control of the war by the elites.
Military AI Integration Challenges13
17.
From the Cold War era until recently, most major defence-related technologies,
including nuclear technology, the Global Positioning System (GPS), and the internet, were
first developed by government-directed programs before later spreading to the commercial
sector. But today, commercial companies—sometimes building on past government-funded
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research—are leading AI development, with governments later adapting their tools for
military applications. AI, unlike nuclear weapons, is being developed by non-governmental
institutions, such as Google or Microsoft, not by the government itself. These institutions
are not always willing to cooperate with the government, which impedes the application of
AI in the military. An example of this is the case of Project Maven, which was a
collaboration between the US Department of Defence and Google. But the latter had to
withdraw from the project as thousands of its employees signed a petition to end the use of
their work by the military.
18.
In addition to the shift in funding sources, a number of challenges related to
technology, process, personnel, and culture continue to impede the adoption of AI for
military purposes.
19.
Technology. A wide variance exists in the ease of adaptability of commercial AI
technology for military purposes. In some cases, like maintenance activities, the transition is
relatively seamless. But in most of the military circumstances, significant adjustments are
required due to the differences between the structured civilian environments and more
complex combat environments. For example, commercial semiautonomous vehicles have
largely been developed in and for data-rich environments with reliable GPS positions,
comprehensive terrain mapping, and up-to-date information on traffic and weather
conditions obtained from other networked vehicles. In contrast, the military variant of such a
vehicle would need to be able to operate in locations where map data are poor and in which
GPS positioning may be inoperable. Moreover, semiautonomous, or autonomous military
ground vehicles would likely need the ability to navigate off-road in rough terrain—a
capability not inherent in most commercial vehicles.
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20.
Process. Standing procurement processes—including those related to standards of
safety and performance, acquisitions, and intellectual property and data rights—present
another challenge to the integration of military AI. Often, civilian, and military standards of
safety and performance are either not aligned or are not easily transferable. A failure rate
deemed acceptable for a civilian AI application may be well outside of tolerances in a
combat environment. In addition, unpredictable AI failure modes will be exacerbated in
complex environments in combat. Collectively, these factors may create another barrier for
the smooth transfer of commercially developed AI technology to military.
21.
Government may need to adjust its acquisitions process to account for rapidly
evolving technologies like AI. A lot of initiatives have been taken by India through ‘Make in
India’ and DPP-2020, whose futility will be put to test amid these testing times of COVID-19
and rising tensions over the borders.
22.
Personnel. The defence industry also faces challenges when it comes to recruiting
and retaining personnel with expertise in AI due to research funding and salaries that
significantly lag behind those of commercial companies. It requires a holistic approach in
the form of national policy directive, a conducive environment, and a significant initial
investment by government in collaboration with private players for R&D as well as training.
23.
Culture. An apparent cultural divide between Government and commercial
technology companies may also present challenges for AI adoption. This is due to a
number of factors, including process challenges, perceptions of mutual distrust, and
differences between governmental and commercial incentive structures. Moreover, some
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companies may refuse to work with Defence forces due to ethical concerns over the
government’s use of AI in surveillance or weapon systems.
24.
Cultural factors within the defence establishment itself may also impede AI
integration. The integration of AI into existing systems alters standardized procedures and
upends well-defined personnel roles.
Indian exploits in the field of AI & Robotics
25.
India’s efforts at AI Research & Development (R&D), particularly defence R&D, are
comparatively nascent, and its lag in the field is glaring when viewed with respect to the
size of its economy and defence needs. This is especially so when compared with the state
of advancement of its peer powers or even some of the smaller powers. India’s current AI
industry is estimated to be $180 million annually. Government of India is aware that the lag
in the AI technology could have serious ramifications, in all the sectors including defence. It
is obvious that a nation will be highly disadvantaged in the near future unless some credible
advancements in the sectors of AI and robotics are made. Relying on external technology
will not allow India to come close to the lead. Accordingly, Government of India has come
out with A National Strategy for AI: AI for all in Jun 2018.
TABLE 1- MAJOR COUNTRIES WITH NATIONAL AI STRATEGY
Serial
Date
Country
Title of AI National strategy
(a)
Mar 2017
Canada
Pan-Canadian AI Strategy.
(b)
Mar 2017
Japan
AI Technology Strategy.
(c)
July 2017
China
A next generation AI Development Plan.
(d)
Mar 2018
France
France’s strategy for AI.
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(e)
Apr 2018
UK
Industrial Strategy: AI Sector Deal.
(f)
May 2018
Australia
Australian Technology & Science Growth
Plan.
(g)
Jun 2018
India
National Strategy for AI-AI for all.
(h)
Dec 2018
Germany
Key Points for a Federal Government
strategy on AI.
(j)
Feb 2019
USA
Accelerating America’s Leadership in AI.
Source: “An overview of national AI strategies”, report available at
https://medium.com/politics-ai/an-overview-of-national-ai-strategies-2a70ec6edfd
26.
Indigenous Chip designing.14 There is an increasing dependence on electronics
and software in defence platforms with increasing electronic chips, sensors with embedded
and customised application software. Though private sector companies are harnessed for
capital intensive chip designing, chip manufacturing has not picked up in India so far. This
is due to the fact that chip manufacturing technology is on the export control list of the US.
End-to-end chip designing and manufacturing, however, are as crucial as in-house AI
development from the future cyber security and defence points of view.
27.
Policy push by India. Having come out with A National Strategy for AI: AI for all
in Jun 2018, India’s NITI Aayog has outlined the scope of research and the adoption and
commercialization of the technology. It lays out the short, medium- and long-term goals to
be achieved by 2022, 2026 and 2030. The Government of India has also set up a multistakeholder task force in February 2018 to formulate a concrete strategy and framework for
employment of AI in national security and defence needs. The 17-member task force is
headed by Tata Sons Chairman, N Chandrasekharan with national cyber security
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coordinator, Gulshan Rai, academics from the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) and the
Indian Institute of Science (IISc), representatives from the Indian Space Research
Organization (ISRO), the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the
Atomic Energy Commission, and military officers as members.
28.
There have been some initiatives in developing AI-based applications by the Centre
for Advanced Data Computing (CDAC) and the IITs in the civilian sector. India’s defence AI
R&D has primarily been entrusted to Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR)
under the DRDO. CAIR is focused towards establishing Artificial Intelligence (AI)
technologies which can be applied for the rich problem areas in the military domain.
Towards this end, CAIR has established a comprehensive data-mining toolbox, with a large
number of data mining algorithms, which can be used in different problem spaces.
29.
The Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (TPCR) brought out by the
Ministry of Defence in April 2013, is based on the Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan
(LTIPP) of the armed forces, and covers a period of 15 years (the current one is from 20122027). It clearly states that the future battlespace will be shaped by technology. It
emphasizes on self-reliance and ensuring technological developments commensurate with
desired military capability. The TPCR only touches very briefly upon application of AI and
robotics in the defence sector, such as in image interpretation, maintenance of weapon
systems, precision target support, carriage of ammunition and fire power. Perspectives
have radically altered since 2013. We urgently need a relook at the future technology
acquisition and training, to make the armed forces future ready, commensurate with all
major powers.
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Recommendations
30.
There is a need to provide incentives and stimulus to the chip fabrication and
production in the country for an accelerated growth of the chip industry, to attain early selfreliance.
31.
There is a need to create AI talent by introducing AI in educational institutions, or
modifying their educational curriculum to include AI, and at the same time, taking policy
initiatives, and laying down incentives for retaining the AI talent within the country.
32.
Though the finance budget allocates $480 million for Digital India, a substantial
allocation needs to be carved out for the AI R&D. The private sector plays a crucial role in
AI technology development and in harnessing and retaining the right talent, into AI
research. Financial incentives in terms of tax benefits and prize money for credible AI
applications development needs to be instituted for the sector. The public private
partnership can be adopted for the defence sector to cover the lag due to late entry.
33.
There should be periodic technology orientation programmes for the policy makers
as well as end users, i.e. the defence services, as they often get left behind, due to limited
opportunities for exposure, in the day to day running of things. The defence services need
to have their own technology monitoring cells, to assess the effectiveness and impact of
upcoming technologies.
34.
There is a need to develop AI-based integrated war management and battle control
systems for different levels on priority. These would also include functions like scenario
building, logistics, targeting, intelligence, movements, communications, etc. Future warfare
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would need an integrated approach of the armed forces and non-military elements, to
prosecute an AI enabled environment. Integrated strategies need to be evolved further. AI
systems like virtual reality systems, which would cut the costs of peacetime training while
making it more realistic and facilitating integration, also need to be given high priority for
development.
35.
AI-based robotics, like unmanned combat platforms, are likely to accrue distinct
advantages for the military in battle action, targeting, collaterals, costs, economy of efforts
etc., and needs to be given high priority for development. AI enabled low cost unmanned
systems have been viewed as the warfighting tools of the next decades, and their
development needs impetus. These may radically alter the way battles are fought in the
future, particularly in anti-terrorist operations. There is a need to commence work on
acquiring and developing LAWS to retain combat edge in the future.
36.
Development of Non-Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse (NNEMP) weapons and
Electronic Warfare systems and capabilities needs to be given impetus, as the dependency
on electronic systems will also see crucial roles of these systems and capabilities.
Conclusion
37.
AI-enabled technology is becoming the driver of change for mankind, and its effect is
likely to accentuate further in future. Advances in AI have ensured that autonomy has now
crossed a “tipping point”. There is no alternative to embracing the upcoming technology
promptly, and review and adjust the policies to cater for the quick, successive changes in
the defence sector.
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38.
Future war scenarios are likely to be radically different from the past. The warfare is
likely to be hybrid, multi-domain, multi-dimensional & highly technology driven. AI
technology will have a central role in war management. In such a scenario, autonomous AI
military systems and multi-domain capability would be an inescapable necessity for the
Indian military.
(Total words: 3996)
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