This article was downloaded by: [128.252.111.87] On: 18 March 2021, At: 08:32 Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) INFORMS is located in Maryland, USA Management Science Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://pubsonline.informs.org Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance: A Resource Redeployment Perspective Simone Santamaria To cite this article: Simone Santamaria (2021) Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance: A Resource Redeployment Perspective. Management Science Published online in Articles in Advance 11 Mar 2021 . https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3929 Full terms and conditions of use: https://pubsonline.informs.org/Publications/Librarians-Portal/PubsOnLine-Terms-andConditions This article may be used only for the purposes of research, teaching, and/or private study. 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For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22 ISSN 0025-1909 (print), ISSN 1526-5501 (online) http://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/mnsc Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance: A Resource Redeployment Perspective Simone Santamariaa a Department of Strategy and Policy, National University of Singapore Business School, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119245 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5632-7051 (SS) Contact: bizsim@nus.edu.sg, Received: July 22, 2017 Revised: August 2, 2018; September 26, 2019; April 3, 2020; July 30, 220, September 4, 2020; November 13, 2020 Accepted: November 15, 2020 Published Online in Articles in Advance: March 11, 2021 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3929 Copyright: © 2021 INFORMS Abstract. Prior research suggests portfolio entrepreneurs—businesspeople who run more than one firm simultaneously—launch more successful ventures than their single-business counterparts. However, their ventures are less likely to survive. In an attempt to reconcile this paradox, this paper presents a framework in which portfolio entrepreneurs’ main advantage is not a superior ability to select the best business opportunities ex ante, but rather the ability to redeploy human and capital resources across businesses ex post, which reduces the sunkenness of their investments in new projects. This redeployment option facilitates their exit from new businesses that fail initial market tests. Thus, portfolio entrepreneurs’ heterogeneous termination decisions explain a greater portion of new firm performance differential than ex ante opportunity selection. We test these ideas using a longitudinal data set of more than 5,700 entrepreneurs and find consistent evidence. Portfolio companies do not show systematically higher performance at the time of entry; a performance difference emerges only over time, as the selection effect and resource redeployment occur. History: Accepted by Ashish Arora, entrepreneurship and innovation. Supplemental Material: Data is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3929. Keywords: portfolio entrepreneurs • resource redeployment • new venture exit and performance over-time differences in new firm performance even when the quality of the businesses they start is similar. To formalize this intuition, I propose a stylized model of resource redeployment that translates a conceptualization based on Lieberman et al. (2017) to the context of entrepreneurial ventures. In the model, we study the behavior of single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs who start new companies with similar economic potential, encounter positive or negative market signals and then must decide whether and when to exit. Our model suggests that because they can redeploy resources, portfolio entrepreneurs are faster to exit companies that receive negative early market signals and this behavior generates a selection effect over time—only the most successful portfolio companies stay alive, and a performance difference between the two groups of entrepreneurs appears. We provide empirical evidence consistent with the model using a cohort of 5,740 similar companies founded in the same year by single-business (84% of the sample) and portfolio entrepreneurs (16% of the sample). Our empirical analysis shows that portfolio entrepreneurs exhibit a higher probability of exit and exit earlier from poorly performing companies, even after controlling for initial firm performance. This behavior entails a selection mechanism that raises the relative quality of the surviving portfolio companies over time. 1. Introduction The growing literature devoted to entrepreneurial performance has recently turned to entrepreneurs who create and manage multiple firms simultaneously, known as portfolio entrepreneurs (Westhead et al. 2005, Lechner and Leyronas 2009, Baert et al. 2016). The extant research reveals mixed findings on the performance of these entrepreneurs’ new ventures. Although their firms generate more revenue and grow faster than those of single-business entrepreneurs (Westhead et al. 2005), they are also less likely to survive (Gottschalk et al. 2014). The goal of this paper is to reconcile these previous contradictory findings by introducing a new explanation based on resource redeployment (Helfat and Eisenhardt 2004, Levinthal and Wu 2010, Sakhartov and Folta 2014, Lieberman et al. 2017, Belenzon et al. 2019). We argue that a portfolio entrepreneur’s main advantage is not a superior ability to select the best business opportunities ex ante, but rather the ability to redeploy human and capital resources across multiple businesses ex post, which reduces the sunkenness of investments in new projects. This redeployment option facilitates an exit from new businesses that fail initial market tests and increases responsiveness to negative market feedback. This differential exit behavior between these two types of entrepreneurs leads to 1 2 Notably, however, the portfolio companies do not show systematically higher performance at the time of entry; the performance difference only emerges over time, as the selection effect occurs. Finally, we find evidence of the intertemporal redeployment of resources from failing to more successful companies within the same portfolio by looking at the variation of portfolio asset value and number of employees following new firm exit. These combined results suggest that portfolio entrepreneurs are not systematically more skilled owners who select better opportunities ex ante; instead, they simply make different exit decisions ex post. This paper advances prior literature on commitment and experimentation in entrepreneurship (Sarasvathy et al. 2013, Kerr et al. 2014, Belenzon et al. 2019, Gans et al. 2019) by investigating how a portfolio approach that enables resource redeployment across companies might help entrepreneurs make more efficient exit decisions, which in turn determines entrepreneurial performance (Li and Chi 2013, Guler 2018, Yu 2019). In doing so, we emphasize the importance of resource redeployment as part of an exit strategy, which may encourage dynamic experimentation over time (Belenzon et al. 2019). Consistent with the literature that treats survival as an outcome that is not always desirable (Gimeno et al. 1997, Arora and Nandkumar 2011), an earlier exit appears to be advantageous for portfolio entrepreneurs. Indeed, their heterogeneous termination decision explains a greater portion of new firm performance differential than ex ante opportunity selection or heterogeneous management of successful companies (Guler 2018). In this sense, this study helps to conciliate prior contradictory findings on portfolio entrepreneurs’ new firm performance (Westhead et al. 2005, Gottschalk et al. 2014). Finally, from an empirical perspective, we extend strategy literature on resource redeployment by providing a novel, distinctive context for testing theories of intertemporal economies of scope and their implications (Helfat and Eisenhardt 2004, Levinthal and Wu 2010, Lieberman et al. 2017). 2. Literature Portfolio entrepreneurs own and manage multiple firms at the same time, often in an explicit attempt to seize additional opportunities related to the original business idea (Lechner and Leyronas 2009, Iacobucci and Rosa 2010), which may require the involvement of other investors or partners. Interestingly, Westhead et al. (2005) discovered that new firms created by portfolio entrepreneurs systematically perform better than other firms; however, the authors did not identify the mechanisms that lead to this performance gap. Extant research typically includes portfolio entrepreneurship as one type of successful entrepreneurial Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS experience, such that superior performance is presented as a byproduct of the founder’s entrepreneurial skill or experience. We acknowledge the importance of this framework, but we argue that looking at portfolio entrepreneurship exclusively in terms of experience may be limiting. Moreover, the inconclusive prior results suggest the need for an alternative framework. For example, Gottschalk et al. (2014) could not replicate the results of Westhead et al. (2005) when they considered the survival of new firms as a performance variable. Instead, they found that firms owned by portfolio entrepreneurs do not achieve a better survival rate; under some definitions of portfolio entrepreneurship, these companies even appear more likely to die. No theory of portfolio entrepreneurship has addressed this puzzle. In an attempt to establish such a theory, we argue that the ability to select better business opportunities ex ante because of their superior entrepreneurial experience or skill is not the only advantage portfolio entrepreneurs enjoy when launching new businesses. Rather, their ability to redeploy resources across businesses ex post plays a key role in their success. We posit that the option to redeploy resources across businesses within the same portfolio reduces the sunkenness of an entrepreneur’s investments in a new business (Lieberman et al. 2017). Entrepreneurs and organizations largely differ in their ability and willingness to terminate underperforming ventures (Guler 2018). In many cases, survival is a sign of stubbornness or a lack of better options rather than an indicator of success. Gimeno et al. (1997) find that the entrepreneur’s opportunity cost is fundamental for estimating a businessspecific performance threshold. Entrepreneurs with high human capital in innovation-based industries, for example, often prefer to fail quickly rather than merely survive for an extended period while running a poorly profitable business (Arora and Nandkumar 2011). In this context, the flexibility provided by resource redeployment may reduce portfolio entrepreneurs’ commitment to any specific business, such that they exit faster from underperforming ventures than single-business entrepreneurs do. Furthermore, the faster reaction of portfolio entrepreneurs should influence the average performance of portfolio firms. Because portfolio entrepreneurs shut down their underperforming companies earlier, their surviving companies may perform better over time than companies owned by single-business entrepreneurs. Portfolio entrepreneurs can take advantage of two resource-sharing mechanisms. Strategy and business group literature has traditionally focused on the first mechanism: intratemporal economies of scope, also known as synergy (Lieberman et al. 2017). This mechanism involves the contemporaneous sharing Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS of resources between companies belonging to the same group. The most common resources of this type are intangible ones like information, brand/reputation (Capron and Hulland 1999), and knowledge or capabilities (Capron and Mitchell 1998). Other resources like skilled workers or physical assets, in contrast, cannot be deployed among multiple businesses at the same time (Levinthal and Wu 2010). These resources give rise to a second type of resource-sharing mechanism: intertemporal economies of scope or resource redeployment. This mechanism refers to the redeployment of resources between businesses over time as resources are withdrawn from one business and transferred to another (Helfat and Eisenhardt 2004, Lieberman et al. 2017). In this latter case, the advantage provided to entrepreneurs is not directly reflected in firm performance but instead in the form of intertemporal flexibility. Entrepreneurship literature has not yet explored redeployment as a valuable exit option that can facilitate rapid divestment, although a few qualitative studies indicate its relevance. For example, in their detailed case study of a business portfolio, Baert et al. (2016, p. 362) find strong evidence of human and capital resource redeployments following business exit: According to the entrepreneur interviewed, the “process of reabsorbing resources from failed ventures back into the portfolio” is an important exit strategy. Lechner and Leyronas (2009, p. 654) find similar results in their indepth study of three French portfolio entrepreneurs: An entrepreneur openly stated that “having a group of companies facilitates the divestment of activities, which increases the flexibility of the company and reduces risk.” 3. Context, Sample, and Empirical Puzzle To provide empirical evidence about our ideas, we use a novel sample of 5,740 Italian firms and data collected from the business register of Italian chambers 3 of commerce, UnionCamere. This database is publicly available and contains official data about all Italian companies. To construct our sample of focal firms, we selected a starting year1 (2006) and extracted firms founded in that year from the database. Then, we collected balance sheet data about these firms from 2007 through 2011 (5 years), along with information about all the firms that a founder owned or in which he or she had previously owned majority stakes—the indicator of a portfolio entrepreneur. Figure 1 provides a visual representation of the sampling process. We compare focal firms founded by single-business entrepreneurs with those founded by portfolio entrepreneurs. Because all the focal firms were created in the same year, it is easy to make comparisons in terms of their survival rate, exit timing, and performance. 3.1. Portfolio Entrepreneurs We use the term entrepreneur to refer to the founder and main shareholder of a focal firm. They founded companies in 2006 that they control by owning a majority of equity (minimum 51% shares) or serving as chief executive officer (CEO). All the companies in our sample are owned by individuals and not other companies; we exclude any subsidiaries of established companies. Following established approaches in the literature (Westhead et al. 2005), we define Portfolio as a binary variable equal to 1 if the entrepreneur who launched the focal firm owns or is the CEO of other companies at the same time.2 In contrast, this variable is 0 if the entrepreneur runs only the focal firm. In the sample, the average portfolio size is quite small (50% of portfolio entrepreneurs own just two companies, and 75% own three or fewer). Finally, to address other issues that might distort this classification, we removed all the entrepreneurs who started a focal firm that can be classified as a holding/management company or alleged shell corporation (Appendix B). Among the remaining 5,740 Figure 1. (Color online) Data Gathering Process Notes. The figure reports our data collection process. We selected a starting year (2006) and collected a sample of firms founded that year (Focal Firms). Then, we collected data about their founders and all the other firms in which they own majority stakes (Portfolio). Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 4 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Figure 2. (Color online) Survival Curves by Entrepreneur Type Note. The graph displays the focal firm survival curve for portfolio and single-business focal companies. entrepreneurs, we classified 84% as single business and 16% as portfolio. Of the single-business entrepreneurs, about 20% had previous entrepreneurial experience. Because our analysis focuses on portfolio entrepreneurs rather than large business groups, most firms in our sample are small or medium-sized enterprises with an average of 23 employees per business. 3.2. Nonparametric Analysis Two interesting patterns emerge from simple comparison of survival and performance of focal firms launched by single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs. In terms of survival rate, 68% of the focal firms started by single-business entrepreneurs were in business for the entire five-year period. This rate drops to 60% for focal firms started by portfolio entrepreneurs. Figure 2 provides a visual representation of the survival curves for the two groups of entrepreneurs over time, using the Kaplan-Meier methodology. Clearly, focal firms founded by portfolio entrepreneurs are more likely to exit, and exit earlier, compared with focal firms launched by singlebusiness entrepreneurs. Next, we compare focal firm performance between the two groups of entrepreneurs. Table 1 reports the results for the t test assessing the revenue differences over time. Interestingly, portfolio firms do not differ much from single-business firms in the early years; the mean revenue difference between the two groups is not statistically different in 2007 (t = −1.03, p = 0.30), suggesting initial homogenous venture quality (Arora and Nandkumar 2011). However, a performance difference emerges between the two groups in the following years. These combined patterns of survival and revenue differences present an interesting empirical puzzle. If portfolio entrepreneurs are simply more skilled entrepreneurs and select better opportunities, why are their companies less likely to survive? Similarly, why does the revenue difference between single-business and portfolio ventures manifest only later in time? We argue that a theoretical framework to explain these results lies in portfolio entrepreneurs’ main advantage being the ability to redeploy human and capital resources across multiple businesses ex post. 4. Theoretical Model and Propositions Our simple theoretical model aims to explain this empirical puzzle. It formalizes the problem faced by entrepreneurs who start a new venture, encounter market signals, and must decide whether and when to exit. We compare the new venture termination Table 1. Two-Sample t Test for Portfolio and Single-Business Entrepreneurs’ Focal Firm Revenue over Time Difference (1) − (2) Year Observations Mean revenue Single business (1) Portfolio (2) 2007 5,740 5,328 11.82 (3.10) 11.96 (3.26) 11.94 (3.66) 12.18 (3.61) −0.12 2008 11.84 (3.19) 12.00 (3.32) 2009 4,922 11.71 (3.67) 11.60 (3.71) 12.33 (3.30) −0.73*** 2010 4,538 11.62 (4.02) 11.50 (4.08) 12.33 (3.58) −0.83*** 2011 4,169 11.48 (4.34) 11.35 (4.41) 12.26 (3.78) −0.90*** −0.21* Notes. The table reports the mean and the standard deviation (in parentheses) of focal firms’ revenue from 2007 to 2011. Columns (1) and (2) report the mean and standard deviation separately for the companies owned by single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs. The last column reports the difference in the mean revenue between the two groups and the t test of the difference. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 5 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS decision of a single business to that of a portfolio entrepreneur when the main advantage of the latter is the option to redeploy resources from the new venture to an established portfolio. The model develops three main propositions that are empirically tested: even when facing identical business opportunities, (1) the single-business entrepreneur is slower to exit ventures producing negative signals, which (2) generates a selection effect over time. (3) Both effects are moderated by the portfolio entrepreneur’s redeployment potential relative to that of the single-business entrepreneur. We also discuss how the main results are affected when entrepreneurs select heterogeneous opportunities before entry. Appendix A provides a more detailed version of the model with formal statements and mathematical proofs of all propositions. 4.1. Timing and Exit Decision The framework is a variation of the optimal stopping problem with a finite time horizon (Ross 1983, Ferguson 2007). For simplicity, we focus on a case with just three periods (t = 0, 1, 2), but the core intuition can be easily extended to a case with a longer timeframe. At time t = 0, the entrepreneur is facing an opportunity. To seize this opportunity, she can make an investment F to start a business. If the entrepreneur does not invest, the game ends, and the resulting payoff can be normalized to 0. If the entrepreneur invests, at t = 1 she observes the cash flow generated by the business and chooses an action: stay in the business for an additional period or exit. With an exit decision, the entrepreneur can recover a fraction of the investment F by divesting the activity. With a stay decision, the game moves to time 2. At time t = 2, the entrepreneur observes an additional cash flow and the game ends. For simplicity, we assume two types of opportunities: good (G) and bad (B). Agents do not observe opportunity types, but they know that the probability of getting a good opportunity is α0 , and the probability of getting a bad opportunity is 1 – α0 . Good opportunities generate positive cash flow normalized to 1 (positive signal) with probability p and null cash flow (negative signal) with probability (1 – p). Bad projects generate a cash flow equal to 0 (negative signal) with probability 1. For simplicity, we assume that a good opportunity expected payoff in the first or second period is sufficient to cover the fixed costs of the venture; thus, p > F. Thus, entrepreneurs are always willing to continue if they know the opportunity is good. Initially, we assume similar opportunities—same p and α0 —for all entrepreneurs. 4.1.1. Single-Business Entrepreneur. Considering our assumptions, when the single-business entrepreneur observes positive cash flow in t = 1, the posterior probability that the opportunity is good becomes 1, and thus the entrepreneur keeps the business alive until the end of the game. In contrast, a cash flow equal to 0 in t = 1 is less informative about the quality of the business: The opportunity might be bad (B) and the entrepreneur is wasting resources, or the opportunity is good (G) and the entrepreneur has been unlucky for one period. The relevant problem is thus to decide whether to maintain the venture in period 2 when it has failed to produce positive cash flow in period 1. Assuming the single-business entrepreneur can recover a fraction y < 1 of the investment F by divesting the activity, we can represent the exit problem mathematically as max{yF, α1 p}. (1) The parameter α1 represents the updated beliefs according to Bayes’s rule. If the entrepreneur observes a cash-flow of 0 in period 1, the posterior probability that the opportunity is good in the next period is α1 Pr(X 0 | G )Pr ( G) (1 − p)α0 . (2) Pr(X 0 ) (1 − p)α0 + (1 − α0 ) Using Equation (1), we derive that it is optimal for the single-business entrepreneur to exit in period 1 after observing a negative signal when yF > α1 p. (3) The entrepreneur chooses to exit in period 1 when the expected value of obtaining a good opportunity payoff in period 2 is lower than the value recovered through divestment. 4.1.2. Portfolio Entrepreneur. Considering the exit de- cision of a portfolio entrepreneur launching the same venture at t = 0, and facing the same problem, her main advantage is the option to redeploy resources from a closing business to the established portfolio. 3 Building on Lieberman et al. (2017), we model resource redeployability as the option to recover the full sunk investment F in case of exit.4 This assumption is obviously extreme but provides a clear benchmark. In reality, we would expect that only part of the initial investment F can be recovered. However, because the transaction costs associated with internal redeployment are generally lower than those imposed by external factor markets, it is reasonable to assume this fraction is larger than y. Facing a similar exit problem as a single-business entrepreneur, the portfolio entrepreneur has the same reaction to a positive market signal in period 1: the posterior probability that the opportunity is good becomes 1 and the entrepreneur keeps the business alive until the end of the game. But when the portfolio entrepreneur is facing Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 6 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS a negative signal, indeed it is optimal to exit in period 1 when F > α1 p. single-business entrepreneurs in terms of exit timing (Proposition 1) and performance over time (Proposition 2). (4) Comparing Conditions (3) and (4) leads us to propose the following. Proposition 1. The portfolio entrepreneur is quicker to exit a company producing negative signals than the singlebusiness entrepreneur. 4.2. Selection and Conditional Performance over Time Because of this early exit, the performance of the surviving venture in period 2 experiences a selection effect favoring portfolio performance. We can illustrate this effect by studying the expected venture performance (cash flow) for the two types of ventures in period 2 conditional on survival in period 1. Focusing on cases where a negative signal in period 1 is enough to prompt exit from the portfolio entrepreneur but not from the single-business entrepreneur,5 the expected performance of the portfolio venture at t = 2 (conditional on survival) is p. Conversely, the expected performance of the single-business venture at t = 2 (conditional on survival) is α0 p. Intuitively, if the portfolio entrepreneur exits ventures producing negative signals in period 1, only the good ventures survive in period 2. On the other hand, the positive probability that the single-business entrepreneur keeps alive bad ventures reduces expected performance in period 2. We expect no performance difference between single-business and portfolio ventures in period 1 if all the ventures have the same quality and probability of producing positive cash flow. Based on these arguments, we propose the following. Proposition 2. Because of a selection effect, a performance difference between new ventures started by single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs appears over time, even if the initial venture performance is similar. 4.3. Investment Sunkenness The differential exit behavior between single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs crucially depends on the parameter y. The size of y, in turn, can be influenced by the difficulty of reselling the company’s resources on the market in the case of divestment. We call this investment liquidation difficulty sunkenness and argue that if single-business entrepreneur can easily resell their business assets after exit (i.e., parameter y is high), the relative advantage of portfolio entrepreneur disappears. Proposition 3. The greater the investment sunkenness (lower y), the larger the difference between portfolio and 4.4. Entry Thresholds and Heterogeneous Opportunities Appendix A discusses the case in which we relax the assumption that all entrepreneurs enter with the same opportunity. Instead, we assume parameter α0 to be randomly drawn from a continuous distribution with values ranging between (0,1) before entry. In this case, the single-business entrepreneur shows a higher entry threshold that pushes expected cash-flow in period 1 above that of the portfolio entrepreneur. Interestingly, this result goes against conventional wisdom that assumes portfolio entrepreneur’s greater skills in selecting opportunities (which should result in higher expected cash-flow for the portfolio venture in period 1). 5. Propositions Test The empirical tests of our three propositions follow in succession, and we end the section providing empirical evidence of the key mechanism—resource redeployment. 5.1. Dependent Variables The Active binary variable takes a value of 1 if the focal firm survives for the entire five-year period of observation and 0 otherwise. We make no distinction between firms that voluntarily dissolve and those that enter bankruptcy. The Survival Time variable reflects the number of years the focal firm survived. If the firm is still active at the end of the five-year period (2006–2011), it takes a value of 5. Finally, for Revenue, we take the log(Revenue + 1) of the focal firm for a given year t. To assess how single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs react to negative market signals preceding exit, we look at focal firm performance decline before exit as a measure of the intensity of negative market signals. This variable, coded as Revenue Exit – Revenue t0, is the difference between the value of the company the year before its exit and the initial value (2007). 5.2. Independent Variable Our main independent variable Portfolio defines the focal-firm founder’s status. It is a binary variable equal to 1 if the entrepreneur who launched the focal firm owns or is the CEO of other companies at the same time. Section 3.1 provides a more detailed explanation of this variable. 5.3. Control Variables We control for several characteristics of the focal firm: for Revenue t0 measured as the revenue of the firm one year after entry, or log(Revenue + 1) in 2007, and Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 7 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS for Asset t0 measured as the asset value of the firm one year after entry, or log(Asset + 1) in 2007. This operationalization is in line with prior literature that suggests initial size is a good proxy for startup quality (Arora and Nandkumar 2011). We also include Regional Dummies to indicate the geographic location of the firm according to Italy’s second Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) administrative level (Region). For Sector Dummies, we use the twodigit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE) classification. Appendix C contains the list of regions and sectors. We also control for several variables at the founder level. We control for CEO, equal to 1 if the entrepreneur is also the CEO of the focal company and 0 otherwise; Age of the entrepreneur, according to five classes (Class 1 is between 20 and 30 years of age; Class 2, between 30 and 40 years; Class 3, between 40 and 50 years; Class 4, between 50 and 60 years; and Class 5, older than 60 years); and Experienced, a binary variable that takes a value of 1 if the entrepreneur has previous entrepreneurial experience and exited from at least one company before founding the 2006 focal firm, and 0 otherwise. 5.4. Moderating Variable: Sunkenness We follow a procedure proposed by Kim and Kung (2017) to construct an index of investment sunkenness (irreversibility) at the industry level. This index refers to the difficulty of reselling corporate physical assets on the market in the case of divestment. Using the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) capital flow table, this Redeployability Index measures the extent to which assets in a particular industry have alternative uses in any other industries on a scale from 0 to 1. The greater the number of alternative uses, the easier the industry assets are to liquidate on the market. Using the same BEA data, we compute6 a measure of Sunkenness as the inverse of their index: Sunkenness = 1 – Redeployability Index. 5.5. Descriptive Statistics Table 2 reports descriptive statistics for all the variables, distinguishing between focal firms launched by single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs. These firms are comparable in terms of revenue generated in the initial year (Revenue t0). Consistent with previous literature (Belenzon et al. 2019), portfolio ventures have a larger asset value (Asset t0). As expected, however, focal companies launched by portfolio entrepreneurs have a lower survival rate. Portfolio entrepreneurs tend to be older, less likely to be CEO of the focal company, and more experienced than single-business entrepreneurs. Therefore, it is important to control for all these confounding variables in our empirical analysis of the main propositions. Table 2. Descriptive Statistics (Focal Firms) Variable Description All Single business (1) Portfolio (2) Difference (1) − (2) Revenue t Log(1 + revenue focal firm) in year t 11.73 (3.72) 11.67 (3.82) 12.08 (3.82) −0.35*** Revenue t0 Log(1 + revenue focal firm) in the initial year 11.84 (3.19) 11.82 (3.10) 11.94 (3.66) −0.12 Asset t0 Log(1 + asset focal firm) in the initial year 12.26 (1.60) 12.18 (1.51) 12.67 (1.94) −0.49*** Revenue Exit–Revenue t0 Revenue year before exit – Revenue t0 =1 if focal firm is active −1.05 (3.42) 0.68 (0.466) −0.36 (3.41) 0.60 (0.48) −0.68** Active −0.94 (3.40) 0.67 (0.470) Survival time Number of years focal firm is active 4.32 (1.26) 4.34 (1.23) 4.08 (1.39) 0.25*** Sunkenness Index of difficulty of reselling focal firm assets 0.27 (0.14) 0.27 (0.13) 0.24 (0.15) 0.03*** Portfolio =1 if entrepreneur has a portfolio of companies in t0 Age Entrepreneur’s age class 0.156 (0.363) 3.531 (1.193) 0 (0) 3.50 (1.23) 1 (0) 3.73 (1.04) CEO =1 if entrepreneur is CEO of focal firm 0.61 (0.488) 0.62 (0.48) 0.54 (0.49) 0.07*** Experienced =1 if entrepreneur started other companies 0.238 (0.433) 0.18 (0.38) 0.54 (0.49) −0.35*** 0.08*** −0.23*** Notes. The table reports the mean and the standard deviation (in parentheses) of the main variables. Columns (1) and (2) report the mean and standard deviation separately for single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs. The last column reports the difference between the two groups and the t test of the difference ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 8 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS 5.6. Econometric Specifications In testing Proposition 1, we compare the focal firm exit decision of portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs. The econometric specifications are as follows: Activei β0 + β1 Portfolioj + β2 Agej In testing Proposition 2, we compare portfolio and single-business focal firm revenue over time. The econometric specification is as follows: Revenueit β0 + β1 Portfolioj + β2 Agej + β3 Experiencedj + β4 CEOj + β5 Revenue t0i + β6 Asset t0i + β7 Regioni + β8 Sectori + εij . + β3 Experiencedj + β4 CEOj + β5 Revenue t0i + β6 Asset t0i + β7 Regioni + β8 Sectori + εij , and Hazard ratei β0 + β1 Portfolioj + β2 Agej + β3 Experiencedj + β4 CEOj + β5 Revenue t0i + β6 Asset t0i We estimate this regression five times, once for each year from 2007 to 2011, and incorporate all control variables. We use these specifications to test the moderating effect of Sunkenness (Proposition 3). 6. Results + β7 Regioni + β8 Sectori + εij . The subscript i denotes variables at the focal firm level, which we estimate using ordinary least squares (OLS), probit, and logit regressions; and j denotes variables at the entrepreneur level, for which we use a Cox survival analysis. As a measure of the intensity of negative market signals, we focus on the sample of 979 firms that exited and assess performance decline before exit. We control for the Exit Year of each firm. The econometric specification is as follows: Revenue Exiti − Revenue t0i β0 + β1 Portfolioj + β2 Agej + β3 Experiencedj + β4 CEOj + + β5 Asset t0i + β6 Regioni + β7 Sectori + β8 Exit Yeari + εij . 6.1. Exit Decision Table 3 reports the effect of Portfolio entrepreneurship on survival probability and hazard rate. The exit and hazard rate of portfolio entrepreneurs’ focal firms is 10%–20% higher than those of single-business entrepreneurs. These results are consistent across all functional specifications. The analysis of our theoretical predictions regarding exit time and market signals are reported in Table 4. Most companies experienced a decline in revenue before ultimately exiting. However, the average drop in revenue of single-business entrepreneurs’ companies is systematically higher than that of portfolio entrepreneurs’ companies. The average decline in the value of portfolio companies exiting in 2009, for example, is close to zero, whereas that of single- Table 3. Focal Firm Survival Probability and Hazard Rate Variables Portfolio (1) OLS (2) OLS (3) Cox survival (3) Cox survival Active Active Hazard rate Hazard rate −0.0716*** (0.0176) −0.0537*** (0.0187) 0.266*** (0.0591) 0.204*** (0.0651) Age 0.0122** (0.00549) −0.0547*** (0.0206) Experienced −0.101*** (0.0159) 0.370*** (0.0549) CEO 0.00236 (0.0135) −0.00335 (0.0518) Revenue t0 0.00887*** (0.00277) −0.0266*** (0.00849) Asset t0 0.0288*** (0.00603) −0.128*** (0.0205) Constant Region dummies Sector dummies Observations R2 0.681*** (0.00670) No No 5,740 0.003 0.568*** (0.112) Yes Yes 5,740 0.065 No No 5,740 Yes Yes 5,740 Notes. The table shows the effect of Portfolio entrepreneurship on focal firm survival probability and hazard rate. The coefficients in models 1 and 2 refer to an OLS model. The coefficients in models 3 and 4 are estimated using a Cox model. Results are qualitatively similar using Logit and Probit specifications. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 9 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Table 4. Negative Market Signal Preceding Focal Firm Exit (1) OLS (2) OLS (3) OLS Revenue Exit – Revenue t0 Revenue Exit – Revenue t0 Revenue Exit – Revenue t0 0.647** (0.281) 0.702*** (0.229) 0.747*** (0.238) −0.179* (0.0888) 0.478** (0.217) −0.208** (0.0905) 0.497* (0.241) CEO 0.610** (0.217) 0.647*** (0.192) Assets t0 −0.138* (0.0772) −0.188** (0.0796) Variables Portfolio Age Experienced Exit year 2010 −0.505* (0.265) −0.481 (0.322) −0.520** (0.244) Exit year 2011 −0.696*** (0.235) −0.504*** (0.187) −0.639** (0.251) 1.251 (0.963) −0.649*** (0.193) 0.514 (1.126) No No 979 0.011 No No 979 0.035 Yes Yes 979 0.097 Constant Region dummies Sector dummies Observations R2 Notes. The table shows how Portfolio entrepreneurship affects the performance drop before focal firm exit. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. business entrepreneurs is 50%. These findings are consistent with Proposition 1: Single-business entrepreneurs are less reactive to negative market signals than portfolio entrepreneurs and thus need to experience a stronger negative signal (larger performance decline) to exit. 6.2. Selection and Conditional Performance Table 5 shows the performance difference between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs’ focal firms over time. We confirm that portfolio ventures do not start off as better ventures. Interestingly, when we introduce the control variables, portfolio ventures show systematically lower revenues than singlebusiness ventures at entry. This result is in line with the theoretical model and the idea that portfolio entrepreneurs have a lower entry threshold. A positive portfolio coefficient emerges only over time, as the number of companies in the sample decreases, suggesting a selection effect similar to the one derived in the theoretical model. These findings rule out the alternative explanation that portfolio firms are launched by generically better entrepreneurs. If a portfolio firm’s quality were systematically higher, we should observe a positive, significant Portfolio coefficient at each point in time. 6.3. Investment Sunkenness We use the same econometric specifications from the analyses of Propositions 1 and 2 to test the moderating effect on Sunkenness. Table 6 reports this effect on exit probability and timing, and Table 7 reports its effect on performance. The results provide strong evidence in support of our main theoretical mechanism. In industries characterized by assets that can be easily sold on the market, the behavioral difference between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs, in terms of exit timing and probability, is minimal and barely significant. Conversely, this difference becomes stronger in industries characterized by resources that are difficult to liquidate. According to the estimates in Table 6, a standard deviation increase in Sunkenness increases the difference in survival rate between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs by 5% points and the difference in hazard rate by 13% points. We observe a similar effect in Table 7. The performance difference between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs’ focal firms becomes large and significant only in industries characterized by high levels of Sunkenness. These results help rule out the alternative explanation that portfolio entrepreneurs are generically more skilled than single-business entrepreneurs and thus select better opportunities. If they were relatively more skilled, we would observe a large performance difference in every industry. 7. Measuring Resource Redeployment We capture redeployment as a positive variation in Portfolio Resources, specifically Portfolio Assets and Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 10 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Table 5. Focal Firm Performance over Time Variables (1) OLS (2) OLS (3) OLS (4) OLS (5) OLS Revenue t0 Revenue t1 Revenue t2 Revenue t3 Revenue t4 Portfolio −0.304*** (0.107) −0.0921 (0.118) 0.319** (0.136) 0.340** (0.154) 0.374** (0.176) Age −0.0539* (0.0280) −0.303*** (0.0884) −0.105*** (0.0328) 0.0942 (0.0968) −0.198*** (0.0422) 0.0965 (0.124) −0.287*** (0.0495) 0.286** (0.141) −0.350*** (0.0557) 0.225 (0.160) 0.0572 (0.0696) 0.0176 (0.0786) 0.0536 (0.100) 0.167 (0.115) 0.174 (0.131) 0.347*** (0.0305) 0.0920*** (0.0274) 0.0265 (0.0290) 0.00210 (0.0318) 0.629*** (0.0498) 0.785*** (0.0479) 0.779*** (0.0551) 0.839*** (0.0617) 4.948* (2.989) Yes Yes 5,328 0.337 4.189* (2.450) Yes Yes 4,922 0.179 5.147** (2.173) Yes Yes 4,538 0.146 4.680** (2.230) Yes Yes 4,169 0.143 Experienced CEO Revenue t0 Asset t0 Constant Region dummies Sector dummies Observations R2 1.297*** (0.0399) −12.70*** (3.529) Yes Yes 5,740 0.445 Notes. Effect of Portfolio entrepreneurship on focal firm revenue. Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Portfolio Employees, when the entrepreneur’s focal firm is closed. In contrast to previous literature on business groups, we are not interested in measuring resource circulation between companies over time (Belenzon and Tsolmon 2016). Instead, we are interested in capturing redeployment following a Table 6. Focal Firm Exit and Investment Sunkenness Variables (1) OLS (2) OLS (3) Cox Survival (4) Cox Survival Active Active Hazard rate Hazard rate Portfolio 0.0271 (0.0335) 0.0400 (0.0337) −0.0392 (0.116) −0.0798 (0.115) Sunkenness 0.0310 (0.0488) −0.0814 (0.0511) −0.112 (0.181) 0.317* (0.186) Portfolio×Sunkenness −0.400*** (0.118) −0.381*** (0.117) 1.196*** (0.376) 1.113*** (0.365) Age 0.0147*** (0.00549) −0.0628*** (0.0200) Experienced −0.107*** (0.0158) 0.00755 (0.0135) 0.386*** (0.0521) −0.0175 (0.0493) Revenue t0 0.00933*** (0.00272) −0.0271*** (0.00845) Asset t0 0.0276*** (0.00590) −0.123*** (0.0224) CEO Constant Region dummies Sector dummies Observations R2 0.672*** (0.0150) No No 5,740 0.005 0.161** (0.0720) Yes No 5,740 0.041 No No 5,740 Yes No 5,740 Notes. The table shows the moderating effect of investment Sunkenness on Portfolio effect on focal firm survival probability and hazard rate. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 11 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Table 7. Sunkenness and Focal Firm Performance over Time Variables (1) OLS (2) OLS (3) OLS (4) OLS (5) OLS Revenue t0 Revenue t1 Revenue t2 Revenue t3 Revenue t4 Portfolio 0.0220 (0.211) −0.0314 (0.206) 0.167 (0.227) 0.0229 (0.272) 0.0257 (0.295) Sunkenness −0.579** (0.279) −1.654** (0.804) −0.226 (0.336) −0.285 (0.742) −0.640 (0.412) 0.653 (0.787) −1.182** (0.489) 1.446 (0.944) −1.406*** (0.544) 1.695* (1.021) Age −0.0579** (0.0286) −0.0986*** (0.0328) −0.195*** (0.0422) −0.282*** (0.0497) −0.340*** (0.0555) Experienced −0.330*** (0.0888) 0.0917 (0.0958) 0.136 (0.122) 0.339** (0.138) 0.282* (0.156) CEO 0.107 (0.0707) 0.0344 (0.0777) 0.0473 (0.0994) 0.145 (0.114) 0.161 (0.129) Asset t0 0.0220 (0.211) 0.345*** (0.0302) −0.0314 (0.206) 0.0869*** (0.0272) 0.167 (0.227) 0.0209 (0.0281) 0.0229 (0.272) 0.00446 (0.0310) 0.0257 (0.295) Constant −3.388*** (0.481) 0.152 (0.474) 0.996* (0.583) 2.227*** (0.641) 1.806** (0.760) Yes No 5,328 0.326 Yes No 4,922 0.163 Yes No 4,538 0.127 Yes No 4,169 0.127 Portfolio×Sunkenness Revenue t0 Region dummies Sector dummies Observations R2 Yes No 5,740 0.412 Notes. The table shows the moderating effect of investment Sunkenness on Portfolio performance effect from 2007 (t0) to 2011 (t4). Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. specific event—focal firm exit. Portfolio Assets is our first dependent variable measured as the sum of the (log) assets of all nonfocal firms owned by an entrepreneur in a given year. Similarly, Portfolio Employees is a dependent variable constructed as the sum of the number of employees of all nonfocal firms owned by the entrepreneur in a given year. Our independent variable, Focal Firm Exit, is a binary measure equal to 1 if entrepreneur i closes the 2006 focal firm at time t and 0 otherwise. Moreover, resource redeployment at the time of closure can be moderated by the level of resource relatedness between the focal firm and portfolio. We construct a moderating variable, Relatedness across firm sectors, using the pairwise similarity index developed by Lee and Lieberman (2010): Relatedness is equal to 1 if two sectors i and j have identical patterns of joint occurrence across all portfolios and 0 if they do not co-occur in the same portfolio.7 The higher the index, the more similar the two sectors are in terms of resources. Finally, resource redeployment at the time of closure can be moderated by the number of companies in the portfolio. Our second moderating variable, No. of Companies, is coded as the number of nonfocal companies in an entrepreneur’s portfolio i at the time of focal firm founding. We also control for portfolio revenue, Portfolio Revenue, over time. Descriptive statistics for all portfolio variables are available in Table 8. The econometric specification to find evidence of redeployment is as follows: Portfolio Resourcesit β0 + β 1 Focal Firm Exitit + β2 Relatednessi × Focal Firm Exitit + β3 No. of Companiesi × Focal Firm Exitit + β4 Portfolio Revenueit + Yeart + ui + εit . The dependent variables, Portfolio Assets and Portfolio Employees, pertain to the portfolio and not the focal firm founded in 2006. We introduce Relatedness across firm sectors and No. of Companies in the portfolio as moderating variables. In the fixed-effect panel regression, Year dummies capture the year’s fixed effects, and u i is the portfolio (entrepreneur) fixed effect. The results of asset redeployment reported in Table 9 show that portfolios of businesses whose owners closed the focal firm in a given year experienced an average increase in asset value of 10% that same year. Moreover, Relatedness and the number of redeployment options (No. of Companies) both increase the Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 12 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Table 8. Descriptive Statistics (Portfolio) Variables Portfolio Assets Portfolio Employees Portfolio Revenue Focal Firm Exit No. of Companies Relatedness Description Observations Mean Standard deviation Log(1 + portfolio assets) Number of employees in the portfolio 3,257 3,257 33.38 66 Log(1 + portfolio revenue) =1 if focal firm exited this year Number of companies in the portfolio in t0 Index of relatedness focal firm-portfolio 3,257 3,257 898 23.8 0.13 2.151 22.5 0.33 1.867 898 0.196 0.056 amount of assets redeployed. Results are less clear if we use Portfolio Employees as the dependent variable, as reported in Table 10. The coefficient of Focal Firm Exit is positive, as expected, but not significant. This finding suggests that redeployment of human resources follows different timing, additional evidence of which is presented in the next section. 8. Additional Analyses We performed a series of additional analyses to verify the robustness of our results and the validity of our proposed theoretical mechanism. First, we provide additional evidence of human resources redeployment as a response to a negative shock involving a portfolio entrepreneur’s focal firm. Second, to identify the mechanism that leads to increased performance of portfolio entrepreneurs over time (Proposition 2), we craft an artificial counterfactual. Third, to support the external validity of our study, we 34.20 350 replicated our main results using a different cohort of companies and entrepreneurs. 8.1. Additional Test for Human Resource Redeployment The results presented in Section 7 show a weak empirical correlation between the timing of focal firm exit and an increase in the number of employees in the portfolio. We thus look at the effect of a demand shock involving the focal firm on the change in number of employees in the portfolio. We run the analysis performed in Section 7 introducing a new independent variable, Focal Firm Negative Shock, instead of Focal Firm Exit. This new variable is a binary measure with value 1 if the focal firm experiences at time t the largest drop in sales (in the five-year period) and 0 otherwise. As reported in Table 11, the number of employees in a portfolio increases by an average of eight units following a focal firm negative shock.8 Table 9. Capital Resources Redeployment Following Focal Firm Exit Variables Focal Firm Exit (1) Panel FE (2) Panel FE (3) Panel FE Portfolio Asset Portfolio Asset Portfolio Asset 2.826*** (0.977) 2.826*** (0.928) −7.673*** (2.276) Relatedness×Focal Firm Exit 23.36** (11.51) No. of Companies×Focal Firm Exit 2.118*** (0.575) Portfolio Revenue Constant Year dummies Portfolio fixed effect Observations R2 Number of portfolios 0.743*** (0.0732) 0.728*** (0.0734) 33.01*** (0.130) 17.65*** (1.755) 17.75*** (1.724) Yes Yes 3,257 0.004 792 Yes Yes 3,257 0.151 792 Yes Yes 3,238 0.162 788 Notes. The table provides empirical evidence of asset redeployment following focal firm exit. The dependent variable is the (log) assets of all firms owned by the entrepreneur, except for the focal firm. The variable Focal Firm Exit has value 1 the year of focal firm exit, 0 otherwise. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 13 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Table 10. Human Resources Redeployment Following Focal Firm Exit Variables Focal Firm Exit (1) Panel FE (2) Panel FE (3) Panel FE Portfolio Employees Portfolio Employees Portfolio Employees 10.08 (11.56) 10.09 (11.55) Relatedness × Focal Firm Exit −62.56 (50.59) −3.436 (4.061) No. of Companies × Focal Firm Exit Portfolio Revenue Constant 29.05 (29.04) 0.253 (0.286) 0.228 (0.276) 56.33*** (9.319) 50.84*** (7.784) 50.92*** (7.932) Yes Yes 3,257 0.002 792 Yes Yes 3,257 0.002 792 Year dummies Portfolio fixed effect Observations R2 Number of portfolios Yes Yes 3,238 0.002 788 Notes. The table provides empirical evidence of human resource redeployment following focal firm exit. The dependent variable is the total number of employees in all nonfocal firms owned by the entrepreneur. The variable Focal Firm Exit has value 1 the year of focal firm exit, 0 otherwise. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. 8.2. Counterfactual Analysis Via a counterfactual analysis, we confirm that the differential exit behavior (Proposition 1) explains most of the performance difference between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs observed in the sample (Proposition 2). That is, the core of our theory is that single-business entrepreneurs continue to operate companies even after a substantial loss in value, but portfolio entrepreneurs do not. If portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs were to adopt the same exit rule, we would anticipate no performance difference. To reproduce this notion empirically, we force our single-business entrepreneurs to exit when they observe a negative market signal similar to the one triggering portfolio entrepreneurs’ exit. This negative market signal is represented by the average performance decline preceding portfolio entrepreneurs’ exit, which we estimated using the results from Table 4 (β0 + β 1 coefficients in the regression9). This number defines the portfolio exit rule. We replace a single-business entrepreneur’s focal firm revenue with a missing value if that firm experienced a drop in revenue equal to or greater than the one defined by the portfolio exit rule. This forces single-business Table 11. Human Resources Redeployment After Negative Shock Involving Focal Firm Variables Focal Firm Negative Shock (1) Panel FE (2) Panel FE (3) Panel FE Portfolio Employees Portfolio Employees Portfolio Employees 11.35 (8.086) 7.983* (4.382) 7.969* (4.388) Portfolio Revenue Constant Year dummies Portfolio fixed effect Observations R2 Number of portfolios 0.180 (0.291) 66.17*** (1.275) No Yes 2,543 0.001 742 59.15*** (10.09) Yes Yes 2,543 0.002 742 54.92*** (9.701) Yes Yes 2,543 0.002 742 Notes. The table provides empirical evidence of human resource redeployment following a negative shock involving the focal firm. The dependent variable is the total number of employees in all nonfocal firms owned by the entrepreneur. The variable Focal Firm Negative Shock has value 1 the year of the focal firm’s largest decline in sales, 0 otherwise. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 14 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS entrepreneurs to behave like portfolio entrepreneurs. Finally, we run the regression we used to test Proposition 2 with a different dependent variable, HRevenue, which represents the hypothetical value of the firm in the counterfactual.10 The results reported in Table 12 confirm that heterogeneity in termination choice explains most of the performance differences observed over time. If we exclude extremely underperforming businesses that single-business entrepreneurs refuse to close (instead of forcing them to exit), we find barely any performance difference between portfolio and single-business companies over time. 8.3. Replication Finally, our study relies on a cohort of firms founded in Italy in 2006. To check the robustness of the results, we replicated the test of our main propositions using a different cohort of 7,000 firms founded in Italy in 2003 and found support for the main propositions. The results of this additional analysis are available on request. 9. Conclusion One of the key advantages enjoyed by portfolio entrepreneurs is their ability to redeploy resources across businesses, which facilitates exit and triggers a faster reaction to negative market signals. This differential exit behavior between portfolio and singlebusiness entrepreneurs leads to over-time differences in new firm performance even when the quality of the businesses they start is similar. We formalize this intuition using a stylized model and provide empirical evidence of our theoretical framework using a longitudinal data set of more than 5,700 ventures started by portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs. This paper accordingly contributes to entrepreneurship and strategy literature in several respects. First, our findings contribute to entrepreneurial entry and exit research (Gimeno et al. 1997, Arora and Nandkumar 2011, Guler 2018, Yu 2019) by showing that the potential to redeploy resources shapes an entrepreneur’s business continuation decision and reaction to negative market feedback. We believe this theoretical mechanism is an essential component of entrepreneurial experimentation. Gans et al. (2019) argue that, although flexibility is extremely important for early-stage ventures, entrepreneurs can learn about the feasibility of an idea only by starting and committing to an activity. Yet our results caution that excessive commitment without redeployment options can lead to poor exit decisions. Second, this study addresses some crucial determinants of portfolio entrepreneurs’ superior performance. Previous literature indicates that entrepreneurs who run more businesses at the same time produce betterperforming companies (Westhead et al. 2005), but without specifying the sources of this superior performance. Whereas most literature relies on entrepreneurs’ experiences or endowments as a main Table 12. Counterfactual Analysis Variables (1) OLS (2) OLS (3) OLS (4) OLS (5) OLS HRevenue t0 HRevenue t1 HRevenue t2 HRevenue t3 HRevenue t4 Portfolio −0.304*** (0.107) −0.0921 (0.118) −0.0124 (0.0628) −0.0359 (0.105) −0.0544 (0.151) Age −0.0539* (0.0280) −0.105*** (0.0328) −0.0339* (0.0198) −0.0558* (0.0301) −0.0381 (0.0399) Experienced −0.303*** (0.0884) 0.0572 (0.0696) 0.0942 (0.0968) 0.0176 (0.0786) 0.0904* (0.0546) −0.0245 (0.0478) 0.00954 (0.0843) −0.0377 (0.0761) −0.0603 (0.125) −0.0550 (0.105) 0.347*** (0.0305) 0.0567*** (0.0120) 0.0203 (0.0147) 0.0307 (0.0222) 0.629*** (0.0498) 0.616*** (0.0276) 0.597*** (0.0323) 0.563*** (0.0487) −12.70*** (3.529) 4.948* (2.989) 6.029*** (0.509) 6.733*** (0.395) 7.284*** (0.874) Yes Yes 5,740 0.445 Yes Yes 5,328 0.337 Yes Yes 2,031 0.602 Yes Yes 1,005 0.559 Yes Yes 580 0.515 CEO Revenue t0 Asset t0 Constant Region dummies Sector dummies Observations R2 1.297*** (0.0399) Notes. The table shows the effect of Portfolio entrepreneurship on the revenue of the focal firm from 2007 (t0) to 2011 (t4) in the counterfactual scenario. In this scenario, we force all entrepreneurs to exit when their focal firm experiences a performance decline consistent with the portfolio exit rule. We used the estimates of the first regression in Table 4 to model the portfolio exit rule, companies are forced to exit if they experience a performance drop greater than +0.15 in 2009, –0.35 in 2010, and –0.60 in 2011. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 15 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS explanatory variable (Sarasvathy et al. 2013, Gottschalk et al. 2014), we suggest that a substantial part of the performance differential stems from their different termination decisions, which result from their ability to redeploy resources. Consistent with the predictions of the formal model, our empirical analysis illustrates that portfolio entrepreneurs do not start off with better opportunities ex ante but are more selective ex post. We would not observe such selection effects if portfolio entrepreneurs were simply more skilled or resourceful. Third, departing from established literature on business groups (Locorotondo et al. 2012), we highlight important but overlooked aspects of resource redeployment. In that literature stream, the focal question is how to optimize the allocation of resources across extant businesses, without specifying redeployment as a divestment option that can increase flexibility and support more efficient experimentation over time. Our proposed framework can help explain why business group affiliates tend to be more innovative than stand-alone companies (Mahmood and Mitchell 2004). Recent works in business group literature have indeed begun exploring how internal market exibility fosters experimentation and business creation (Belenzon et al. 2019). In terms of limitations of the current study, although the empirical analysis produced results consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model, we cannot make strong causal claims. Intertemporal redeployment of capital and human resources is a good explanation for the observed behavioral and performance differences between portfolio and singlebusiness entrepreneurs, but other mechanisms may be in play. Differences in motivation between these entrepreneurs are certainly present and play a role. Moreover, in our study redeployment mainly occurs between existing businesses in the portfolio. Some entrepreneurs might start new ventures to redeploy resources sequentially over time after they have learned from previous mistakes. Solving these issues is a complex task that requires more finegrained data and a strategy to deal with the endogeneity of portfolio creation. Finally, our analysis involves just one country, Italy, which has a business environment characterized by weak institutions and unsophisticated financial systems (La Porta et al. 1998). Our results might be different in other institutional contexts. Specifically, as markets for corporate assets become more developed, the difference between single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs is likely to decline (Belenzon and Tsolmon 2016). Ultimately, however, we believe our study provides a useful theoretical framework and interesting correlations that can guide future research on entrepreneurial experimentation and resource redeployment. Acknowledgments The authors express their appreciation to the department editor, Ashish Arora, an anonymous associate editor, and three anonymous reviewers for their guidance and constructive comments to improve the paper. The authors thank Alfonso Gambardella, Andrea Fosfuri, Mario Amore, as well as seminar participants at Bocconi University, Boston University, Strategy, Entrepreneurship & Innovation (SEI) Doctoral Consortium, the Academy of Management Annual Meeting, and Strategic Management Society Conference for the helpful feedback. Support provided by Bocconi University and Cerved Group in the data collection process is also gratefully acknowledged. All remaining errors are the author’s. Appendix A. Extended Model and Proofs A.1. Timeline There are two types of entrepreneurs: single-business and portfolio entrepreneur. The game lasts three periods (t = 0, 1, 2). • At time t = 0, the entrepreneur is facing an opportunity. To seize this opportunity, she can make an investment F to start a business. If the entrepreneur does not invest, the game ends, and the resulting payoff can be normalized to 0. • If the entrepreneur invests, at t = 1, she observes the cash-flow generated by the business and chooses an action: stay in the business for an additional period or exit. With an exit decision, the entrepreneur can recover part of the investment F by divesting the activity. With a stay decision, the game moves to time 2. The single-business entrepreneur can recover a fraction y < 1 of F in case of exit. The portfolio entrepreneur can recover the full F in case of exit. • At time t = 2 the entrepreneur observes an additional cash-flow and the game ends. A.2. Main Assumptions There are two types of opportunities, good (G) and bad (B). Agents do not observe opportunity types, but they know that the probability of getting a good opportunity is α0 ∈ (0,1) and the probability of getting a bad opportunity is 1 – α0 . Good opportunities generate positive cash flow normalized to 1 (positive signal) with probability p ∈ (0,1) and null cash flow (negative signal) with probability (1 – p). Bad projects generate a cash flow equal to 0 (negative signal) with probability 1. We assume that a good opportunity expected payoff in the first or second period is sufficient to cover the fixed costs of the venture; thus, p > F. Thus, entrepreneurs are always willing to continue the business if they know the opportunity is good. Initially, we assume similar opportunities—same p and α0 —for all entrepreneurs. A.3. Decision Tree We can represent the (postentry) decision tree for the singlebusiness entrepreneur as shown in Figure A.1. Decisions are represented by squares. Event nodes are represented by circles. Payoffs are inside the diamond shapes. Probabilities of events and payoffs are reported outside the shapes. The decision tree for the portfolio entrepreneur is similar, the only difference being the value recovered in case of exit F > yF. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 16 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Figure A.1. Decision Tree Consider the case in which both single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs launch the same business in t = 0 and observe a signal in t = 1. Because p > F, when the entrepreneur observes positive cash flow in t = 1, the posterior probability that the opportunity is good becomes 1, and thus the entrepreneur keeps the business alive until the end of the game. In contrast, a cash flow equal to 0 in t = 1 is less informative about the quality of the business. The relevant problem is thus to decide whether to maintain the venture in t = 2 when it has failed to produce positive cash-flow in t = 1. A.4. Exit Decision Proposition 1 (Repeated). A portfolio entrepreneur is more likely to exit after observing a negative signal in t = 1 than a singlebusiness entrepreneur. Proof. It is optimal for the single-business entrepreneur to exit in t = 1 after observing a negative signal when yF > α1 p. It is optimal for the portfolio entrepreneur to exit in t = 1 after observing a negative signal when F > α1 p. With α1 being the posterior probability, the opportunity is good after observing a negative signal: α1 Pr(X 0 | G )Pr( G) (1 − p)α0 . Pr(X 0 ) (1 − p)α0 + (1 − α0 ) Considering that entrepreneurs have the same p and α0 , and y < 1, the portfolio entrepreneur condition is true for a larger range of values than the single-business condition. Thus, the portfolio entrepreneur is more likely to exit in t = 1 after observing a negative signal than the single-business entrepreneur is. A.5. Selection and Performance Proposition 2 (Repeated). Because of a selection effect, the portfolio venture expected cash flow in t = 2 is higher than that of the single-business venture. Proof. We are now interested in studying the performance or cash-flow of ventures in t = 2. The cash-flow of ventures launched by single-business and portfolio entrepreneurs in t = 2 is conditional on survival in t = 1. Thus, we can identify and discuss three main cases: (1) When α1 p ≥ F, both portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs continue their business in t = 2 irrespective of the market signal in t = 1. Thus, the expected venture cash flow in t = 2, conditional on survival, is α0 p for everyone. Considering that entrepreneurs have the same p and α0 , there is no cash flow difference in t = 2 between portfolio and singlebusiness ventures. (2) When yF > α1 p, both portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs exit when they face a negative market signal in t = 1. Thus, the expected venture cash flow in t = 2, conditional on survival, is p for everyone. That is, all entrepreneurs continue their business in t = 2 only if they observe a positive signal in t = 1; thus, their opportunity is good (G). Also in this case, there is no cash flow difference between single-business and portfolio ventures. (3) When F > α1 p ≥ yF, we have the most interesting case. A negative signal in t = 1 is enough to prompt exit from the portfolio entrepreneur but not from the single-business entrepreneur. Thus, the expected cash flow of the portfolio Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 17 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS venture in t = 2, conditional on survival, is p. Conversely, the expected cash-flow of the single-business venture in t = 2, conditional on survival, is α0 p. Intuitively, if the portfolio entrepreneur exits ventures producing negative signals in t = 1, only the good ventures survive in t = 2. In this case, a performance difference between ventures launched by portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs appears in t = 2 thanks to a selection effect. When yF ≤ α1 p, the single-business entry decision is α0 p(1 + p) + α0 (1 − p)p ≥ F. The minimum α0 that leads to single-business entry defines the entry threshold value: α0 ≥ The entry threshold value is inside the range defined by the case condition if yF F 1−p ≤ or y ≤ . p(1 − p + yF) 2p 2−F A.6. Moderation Proposition 3 (Repeated). The likelihood of observing a difference in exit behavior and venture performance between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs in t = 2 decreases as the parameter y approaches 1. Proof. Propositions 1 and 2 derive from the portfolio entrepreneur’s ability to recover a larger fraction of F in case of exit. As described in the previous paragraphs, we observe a difference in exit behavior and performance between singlebusiness and portfolio ventures in t = 2 only when F > α1 p ≥ yF. This latter condition is less likely to hold as the parameter y approaches 1. F . 2p Case 2. The condition yF > α1 p implies that yF . p(1 − p + yF) α0 < When yF > α1 p, the single-business entry decision is α0 p(1 + p) + (1 − α0 p)yF ≥ F. The minimum α0 that leads to single-business entry defines the entry threshold value: (1 − y)F . p(1 + p − yF) α0 ≥ A.7. Entry Decisions and Thresholds We now study the entry decisions of our entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs start a venture if the expected value of the opportunity is larger than or equal to the fixed costs. We can compute the expected value of an opportunity in t = 0 by solving backward the decision tree of our entrepreneurs. The minimum α0 that leads to entry defines the entry threshold. The entry threshold value is inside the range defined by the case condition if Lemma A.1. Because the portfolio entrepreneur can recover the full F in case of a negative signal, she always enters. Proof. The maximum α0 that leads to exit in case of negative market signal defines the exit threshold value. Rearranging the exit condition F > α1 p, we can write portfolio exit threshold as Proof. When α1 p ≥ F, the portfolio entry decision is α0 p(1 + p)+ α0 (1 − p)p ≥ F. Because α0 p > α1 p > F, the entry condition is always satisfied. When F > α1 p, the portfolio entry decision is α0 p(1 + p)+ (1 − α0 p)F ≥ F. Also in this case, the entry condition is always satisfied. Lemma A.2. The single-business entrepreneur enters only if α0 is sufficiently high. The entry threshold for the single-business entrepreneur is F 1−p ⎪ ⎧ ⎪ α0 ≥ if y ≤ ⎪ ⎪ 2p 2−F ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎨ . ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ (1 − y)F 1−p ⎪ ⎪ ⎩ α0 ≥ if y > p(1 + p − yF) 2−F Proof. Case 1. (1 − y)F yF 1−p < or y > . p(1 + p − yF) p(1 − p + yF) 2−F Lemma A.3. Portfolio entrepreneur exit threshold value is always larger than single-business entry or exit threshold value. α0 < F . p(1 − p + F) Rearranging the exit condition yF > α1 p, we can write singlebusiness exit threshold as α0 < Case 1. In case y > yF . p(1 − p + yF) 1−p 2−F , we can write F yF (1 − y)F > > . p(1 − p + F) p(1 − p + yF) p(1 + p − yF) The condition is always verified for any y < 1. Case 2. In case y ≤ 1−p 2−F , the entry threshold of the singlebusiness entrepreneur is α0 ≥ The condition yF ≤ α1 p implies that α0 ≥ yF . p(1 − p + yF) F . 2p Portfolio exit threshold is larger than the above entry threshold when F F > . p(1 − p + F) 2p Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 18 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS Rearranging we can write the following: p > F − 1. The condition is always verified. A.8. Heterogeneous Opportunities In this section, we relax the assumption that all entrepreneurs start the venture with the same opportunity. Instead, we assume that the parameter α0 is randomly drawn from an unknown continuous distribution D(0,1) before entry. Proposition A.1. When entrepreneurs draw heterogeneous opportunities before entry, the expected cash flow of single-business ventures is higher than that of portfolio ventures in t = 1. Because of Lemma A.3, Propositions 1–3 are still valid. Proof. Case 1. When y ≤ 1−p 2−F . In this case, the entry threshold for the single-business F (Lemma A.2). Thus, in t = 1, companies entrepreneur is 2p launched by portfolio entrepreneur have 0 < α0 < 1 , F whereas those launched by single business have 2p ≤α0 < 1. Because the portfolio entrepreneur launches ventures with lower α0 , her expected cash flow is lower than that of single business in t = 1. The expected cash flow in t = 1 for the portfolio venture is pE(α0 ). The expected cash flow in t = 1 for the single-business venture is ) ( F > pE(α0 ). pE α0 |α0 ≥ 2p F Figure A.2. Decision Path when α0 < p(1−p +F) In the second period, the expected cash flow is conditional on survival. Indeed, exited ventures do not generate any cash flow. Starting from the portfolio, we can identify two main cases of venture survival based on the α0 drawn by the F entrepreneur. First, if α0 < p(1−p +F) , the venture survives in t = 2 only in case of a positive cash flow in t = 1. In this case, the expected cash flow, conditional on survival, is p. We can visualize this path on the game tree in Figure A.2. F Second, if α0 ≥ p(1−p +F) , the venture survives in t = 2 regardless of the feedback in t = 1. In this case, the surviving opportunity can be good or bad. Thus, if the opportunity is good the venture will generate cash-flow p in t = 2. If the opportunity is bad, cash-flow will be zero. Thus, the expected cash-flow is α0 p. We can visualize this path on the game tree in Figure A.3. Combining both cases, we can represent portfolio expected cash flow in t = 2 conditional on survival as ( ) F Pr α0 < p p(1 − p + F) ) ( ) ( F F pE α0 |α0 ≥ . + Pr α0 ≥ p(1 − p + F) p(1 − p + F) Notice that because y ≤ 1−p 2−F , the single-business entrepreneur always continues the venture in t = 2. Thus, the expected cash flow in t = 2 is ) ( F . pE α0 |α0 ≥ 2p Because of Lemma A.3, we can conclude that portfolio ventures generate a higher expected cash-flow in t = 2, conditional on survival. Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 19 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS F Figure A.3. Decision Path when α0 ≥ p(1−p +F) Case 2. When y > 1−p 2−F . (1−y)F The single-business entrepreneur enters only if α0 ≥ p(1+p−yF) (Lemma A.2). Thus, in t = 1, companies launched by portfolio entrepreneurs have 0 < α0 < 1 , whereas those launched (1−y)F by single business have p(1+p−yF) ≤ α0 < 1. Because the portfolio entrepreneur launches ventures with lower α0 , her expected cash flow is lower than that of single business in t = 1. The expected cash flow in t = 1 for the portfolio venture is pE(α0 ). The expected cash flow in t = 1 for the single-business venture is ) ( (1 − y)F > pE(α0 ). pE α0 |α0 ≥ p(1 + p − yF) In the second period, the expected cash flow is conditional on survival. We already identified portfolio expected cash-flow in t = 2 conditional on survival as ) ( F p Pr α0 < p(1 − p + F) ( ) ( ) F F + Pr α0 ≥ pE α0 |α0 ≥ . p(1 − p + F) p(1 − p + F) Following the same logic, we can identify the single business expected cash flow in t = 2 conditional on survival. The main differences are that the single business has a lower exit threshold value and all probabilities are conditional on (1−y)F entry. Defining the entry threshold value as e p(1+p−yF) , we can write ( ) yF | α0 ≥ e p Pr α0 < p(1 − p + yF) ) ) ( ( yF yF | α0 ≥ e pE α0 |α0 ≥ . + Pr α0 ≥ p(1 − p + yF) p(1 − p + yF) We can rewrite the condition as [ ( ) 1 yF Pr e ≤ α0 < p Pr(α0 ≥ e) p(1 − p + yF) ) ( )] ( yF yF pE α0 |α0 ≥ . + Pr α0 ≥ p(1 − p + yF) p(1 − p + yF) Notice that the probability the entrepreneur will continue the venture, irrespective of the market signal is lower for portfolio. Indeed, given Pr(α0 ≥ e) < 1 : ) ( ) ( 1 yF F > Pr α0 ≥ . Pr α0 ≥ Pr(α0 ≥ e) p(1 − p + yF) p(1 − p + F) In addition, the expected cash flow produced in the previous case is higher for the portfolio: ( ) ( ) F yF pE α0 |α0 ≥ > pE α0 |α0 ≥ . p(1 − p + F) p(1 − p + yF) In summary, because of Lemma A.3, we can conclude that portfolio ventures are less likely to survive and Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 20 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS generate a higher expected cash flow in t = 2. Finally, notice that y moderates the cash-flow difference between portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs. Appendix B. Shell Corporations In some cases, entrepreneurs create different companies (legal entities) for strategic goals that have nothing to do with seizing a new business opportunity. Some companies may have been designed to run unproductive activities such as managing the resources of other companies (e.g., holding companies). We accordingly removed from our sample all focal firms belonging to the business administration, real estate, and financial services sectors and all generic service companies. Other companies may be shell corporations, designed primarily to lower or avoid taxes. We followed the guidelines provided by the Italian financial police (Guardia di Finanza), which identify a company as a shell company (Società di Comodo) if its expected operating revenues, estimated using the assets available, are much lower than its actual revenues. The rules to compute the expected operating revenues of a company given its assets are detailed and based on the intuition that companies with an extremely low level of revenue in comparison with their available assets are more likely to be nonoperating or shell corporations. We adopt these criteria and remove any alleged shell companies from the sample. The main results are robust to alternative definitions of portfolio entrepreneurs; however, they do not change even if we ignore all these modifications and define a portfolio entrepreneur simply as someone who owns more than one company. The results of this alternative analysis are available upon request. Appendix C. Geographic Location and Sector of Focal Companies Italian region Abruzzo Aosta Valley Apulia Basilicata Calabria Campania Emilia Romagna Lazio Liguria Lombardy Marche Molise Piedmont Sardinia Sicily Trentino South Tyrol Tuscany Umbria Veneto Venezia Giulia Total Frequency Percentage 134 5 300 33 55 456 550 660 98 1,173 225 18 397 81 222 73 459 89 596 116 5,740 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.02 0.20 0.04 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.02 0.10 0.02 100.00 Appendix C. (Continued) Frequency Percentage Sector Agriculture and fishing Agriculture and fishing Mining and quarrying Total Manufacturing Manufacture of fabricated metal products Manufacture of machinery and equipment Manufacture of food products Manufacture of other chemical products Manufacture of furniture Manufacture of leather and related products Manufacture of electrical equipment Manufacture of wood and products of wood Manufacture of rubber and plastic products Manufacture of computer, electronic, and optical products Manufacture of textiles Other manufacturing Manufacture of other transport equipment Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, and semitrailers Manufacture of paper and paper products Manufacture of machinery for metallurgy Manufacture of beverages Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products Manufacture of tobacco products Total Services Architectural and engineering activities Advertising and market research Other professional and scientific activities Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Packaging activities Printing and reproduction of recorded media Legal and accounting activities Scientific research and development Retail trade (except of motor vehicles) Construction Other services 161 46 207 0.028 0.008 0.036 821 0.143 327 0.057 235 212 0.041 0.037 172 161 0.030 0.028 161 149 0.028 0.026 144 0.025 132 0.023 115 103 103 0.020 0.018 0.018 46 0.008 34 0.006 34 0.006 23 11 0.004 0.002 11 0.002 2 0.000 1 2,999 0.000 0.520 682 0.120 382 319 0.067 0.056 267 0.047 158 147 0.028 0.026 130 95 61 0.023 0.017 0.011 50 43 0.009 0.008 Santamaria: Portfolio Entrepreneurs’ Behavior and Performance 21 Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. 1–22, © 2021 INFORMS redeployment is always from the new venture to the established portfolio. Appendix C. (Continued) Frequency Percentage Wholesale trade (except of motor vehicles) Business support service activities Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution Specialized construction activities Information service activities Software publishing Transporting and storage Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities Prepress and premedia services Human health activities Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Veterinary activities Civil engineering Education Telecommunications Travel agency activities Hotels and similar accommodation Waste collection, treatment, and disposal activities Motion picture, video, and television programming activities Waste treatment and disposal Employment activities Services to buildings and landscape activities Gambling and betting activities Repair of computers and personal and household goods Security and investigation activities Total Grand Total 26 0.005 21 17 0.004 0.003 17 17 11 11 11 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 11 11 11 0.002 0.002 0.002 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 2 0.000 2 2 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 1 1 0.000 0.000 1 2,543 5,740 0.000 0.443 1.000 Endnotes 1 We selected 2006 to maximize the information available related to focal firm performance and other companies created by the same entrepreneur and covered by the chambers of commerce. A European business intelligence company helped us with the data collection process. Italy is an appropriate setting to for the analysis because of its high level of entrepreneurial activity and business ownership compared with other developed countries (E&Y 2013). 2 The status of an entrepreneur is dynamic and may vary over time (e.g., a single-business entrepreneur in 2006 might start a new company in 2008 and become a portfolio entrepreneur), which raises some classification concerns. We classify entrepreneurs according to their status at the moment of the founding of the focal firm in 2006 and exclude from the sample the small fraction of entrepreneurs (around 10%) who changed their status during our study period. However, to check the robustness of the findings, we also ran the analysis with the full sample and a time-varying classification of entrepreneurs. The key results do not change. 3 For simplicity, we abstract from the decision to become a portfolio entrepreneur and simply take the existence of an established business portfolio for the entrepreneur as given. We can assume that some entrepreneurs are more capable when it comes to discovering business opportunities than others. 4 In this model we focus exclusively on the newly created venture termination decision and thus the direction of resource 5 When portfolio and single-business entrepreneurs react to a period 1 negative signal in the same way (exit or continue), we do not observe any performance difference in period 2. Appendix A provides a more detailed discussion of these cases. Similar to Kim and Kung (2017), we find that the industries with the lowest Sunkenness are services such as social assistance and advertising, and industries such as mining and agriculture have the highest. 6 7 To compute overall Relatedness between the focal firm and the business portfolio, we compute the pairwise similarity index for the focal firm’s sector and for all other sectors in the portfolio. We take the highest index in the portfolio as the overall measure of Relatedness, with the idea that portfolio entrepreneurs can redeploy all their resources into the most related company in the portfolio. These results combined with the findings of Section 7 provide insights into the timing of different resource redeployments. The results in Table 9 show how capital resource redeployment usually occurs in the same year as new firm exit. 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