Balaban Valley Project:
Improving the Quality of Life in Rural Area in Turkey
Ali Gökmen1,3, Sinan Kayalıgil2, Gerhard-W. Weber3, İnci Gökmen1, Mehmet Ecevit4, Aşkın
Sürmeli 5, Taylan Bali6, Yıldız Ecevit4, Haluk Gökmen7, Dorien J. DeTombe8
1
Department of Chemistry, 2 Department of Industrial Engineering,
3
Institute of Applied Mathematics, 4 Department of Sociology,
Middle East Technical University, 06531 Ankara, TURKEY
5
Sürdürülebilir Tarım ve Çiftçi Yardımlaşma Derneği, Sümer S. 10/16, Ankara, TURKEY
6
Ankara University, Political Sciences Faculty, Ankara, TURKEY
7
Electrical Engineer, 30. Cadde 26/29 Karakusunlar, Ankara, TURKEY
8
Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
P.O. Box 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Abstract
Over 30 % of the Turkish population live in small villages, often under poor
conditions. In these regions the main source of income is agriculture. The recent
globalization trend in the world makes the sustainable living conditions in rural areas
very difficult. There are high cost of fertilizers and pesticides used in conventional
agriculture, high fuel costs, there is the uncertainty in decision making on the type of
crop to be cultivated for the coming years, the limited opportunities for education of
children, and the unequal and unbearable workload for men and especially for
women. Some of the difficulties are due to recent policies of IMF and World Trade
Organization who impose on governments to lift subsidies on agriculture. Turkey,
once considered as one of the agriculturally self-sustaining countries of the world,
now imports even some of the major agricultural products like grain, beans and oil
producing crops.
All these issues are closely related to each other, and can be seen as an integrated
interdisciplinary complex societal problem. Before handling a complex problem, one
has to make a thorough analysis of all aspects of the problem. In the proposed
project, this will be realized by an integrated approach based on the COMPRAM
method. Mathematical modelling, data mining and modern computer devices will be
used during different phases of the study.
Social scientists, concerned about these problems, carried out studies for a long
time, however, the results could not be applied. Now a real life project is proposed:
the Balaban Valley Project for improving the quality of life in a rural area. The
Balaban Valley Project is located 60 km east of Ankara where four villages are
selected with a total population of about 1300 people.
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The problems of the rural area will be handled systematically by a team of experts
and students from universities, various state organizations, companies and
stakeholders from the villagers living in the area, government organizations and
NGO’s. The decisions made will be implemented and the results will be assessed.
The project will be handled dynamically, for instance, in a sense of learning, whereby
any changes will be made when needed. In the course of the project, communication
and interdisciplinarity, mutual respect, partnership and, finally, hope will play a
significant role throughout.
An improvement of the living conditions in the rural areas is considered to be the
basic interest not only of the local people, but also of entire Turkey, and even of
Europe concerning its process of integration. In the last 50 years the settlement
structure in Turkey has undergone a major change from rural areas to large cities.
Due to the need of cheap labor in Europe, poorly equipped people from rural areas
were accepted as workers from Turkey and other developing countries. The
migration of people, starting from 1960’s, from rural areas to large cities in their
homeland Turkey and to European countries caused problems. Giving the people in
rural areas a chance to improve their living conditions in their own area prevents the
need of immigration to large cities, where the newcomers often have a hard time to
meet the complex demands needed for adapting adequately.
1. Introduction
Rural establisments in Anatolia is a very old traditional way of living. Anatolia is the
land where agriculture started first in human history and various animals were
domesticated first in this land 10,000 years ago (1). In general, the living styles of
people in rural areas do not burden environment as they do in the cities. The village
life is a part of ecological system and due to low density population in these
settlements the life is sustainable. But now rapidly changing world toward
globalization and due to the trends to subsidize agriculture heavily in the western
countries (USA, EU), while applying pressure on Turkey to lift all subsidies, the life
for people living in Anatolia has become very difficult. Migration from villages to the
cities continuous for at least 50 years in Turkey and created many problems in
rapidly expanding cities that could not compensate this growth rate. The migration
also take place from Turkey to European countries since 1960’s. People who
originally come from rural areas of developing countries to these western countries
with different life styles, and cultures brought adoptation problems. Moreover, our
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living planet is under the threat of very rapidly growing energy consumption and its
environmental burden. The United Nations (UN) organized several summits and
expected to make the living more sustainable and so that the future generations can
have a better chance of survival.
United Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) met in
Johannesburg on 2002 (2) to take steps on the issue of sustainability. Some of the
themes of the meeting were related to sustainable agriculture, development and
implementation of renewable energy resources, and education. According to WSSD:
"Agriculture plays a crucial role in addressing the needs of a growing global
population, and is inextricably linked to poverty eradication, especially in developing
countries. Enhancing the role of women at all levels and in all aspects of rural
development, agriculture, nutrition and food security is imperative. Sustainable
agriculture and rural development are essential to the implementation of an
integrated approach to increasing food production and enhancing food security and
food safety in an environmentally sustainable way."
To further international coordination, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the
United Nations (FAO) has initiated and provides the secretariat for the UN System
Network on Rural Development and Food Security. In addition, FAO helped launch,
at the WSSD, a Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development (SARD) initiative
with the participation of over 120 government and civil society representatives. Major
adjustments are needed in agricultural, environmental and macroeconomic policy, at
both national and international levels, in developed as well as developing countries,
to create the conditions for SARD. FAO defines SARD as a process which meets the
following criteria: ensures that the basic nutritional requirements of present and
future generations, qualitatively and quantitatively, are met while providing number
of other agricultural products; provides durable employment, sufficient income, and
decent living and working conditions for all those engaged in agricultural production;
maintains and, where possible, enhances the productive capacity of the natural
resource base as a whole, and the regenerative capacity of renewable resources,
without disrupting the functioning of basic ecological cycles and natural balances,
destroying
the
socio-cultural
attributes
of
rural
communities,
or
causing
contamination of the environment; reduces the vulnerability of the agricultural sector
to adverse natural and socio-economic factors and other risks, and strengthens selfreliance (3,4).
3
Turkey participated WSSD and proposed Agenda 21 on agriculture and energy
issues. In Turkey the coordinating or other relevant bodies on agriculture are the
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Services; the General Directorate of State Hydraulic
Works (DSİ); and the General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS). The agriculture
sector is working towards the integration of environmental considerations. Organic
agricultural works are agricultural activities, where no chemical pesticides or
fertilizers are used, within the framework of the “Regulation on the Production of
Vegetable and Animal Products with Ecological Methods”. The regulation came into
force in 1994 (5). The importance of such works has to be emphasized as they make
major contributions for preventing chemical pollution of the soil. Within the scope of
its services, GDRS has initiated the necessary work in order to determine potential
puddle areas countrywide in order to irrigate potential fields in Turkey. Strategies are
to be developed in order to undertake irrigated agriculture, which is technologically
supported.
Some of the principles of Turkey’s energy policies in Agenda 21 are as follows:
developing existing sources while accelerating research studies on new sources;
adding new and renewable energy resources to the energy cycle as soon as
possible; implementing “Energy Saving Program” for energy efficiency, preventing
extravagance consumption and to minimize losses in production, transmission and
consumption of all energy sources; protecting the environment and public health in
the process of meeting the energy requirements and controlling emissions originating
from energy production and consumption; programming Research and Development
studies (R&D) in the energy field in a way to meet the requirements. To achieve
sustainable energy development and efficiency, the Government considers: the
development and use of safe technologies; promotion of R&D relating to appropriate
methodologies; public awareness-raising; product labeling; and environmental impact
assessment (EIA) as the most important means.
The purpose of this work is to make life sustainable in a rural area, particularly,
several villages selected in the Balaban Valley located in Central Anatolia,
boardering Ankara and Kırıkkale provinces. Balaban valley takes its name from a
small stream which joins Kızılırmak, the longest river of Turkey. Kızılırmak is one of
the most important water-ways in Turkey that hosted many civilizations. Hittites, for
example, settled in the area where Kızılırmak defined the southern borders of this
civilization 4000 years ago.
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2. Balaban Valley
Balaban Valley extends nearly 50 km in northwest-southeast direction, from the town
of Kılıçlar (in the city of Kırıkkale) near Ankara-Samsun highway on the northern side
to Bala (in the city of Ankara) near Ankara-Konya highway on the southern side.
Different ecological systems exist along the Balaban Valley. Balaban stream flows
along the valley which than joins Kızılırmak River. There are at least 12 villages in
the valley. At the eastern side of the valley there are hills rising several hundreds of
meter. After a major flood in 1956 the location of one of the villages in the valley,
Hisarköy, has been changed to a nearby safer site on the south. Recently this region
has been forested by Ministry of Forestery. The western side of Balaban Valley was
surrounded by hills and mountains reaching elevations of about 1000 meters from
the base of the valley. This region is poor in naturally grown trees but scarcely
covered by perennial plants and trees like oak and pine.
Four villages were selected along the Balaban valley for this study. Hisarköy, has a
population of about 300 people. Nearby village Edige is the least crowded of all four
villages with a population of 100 people during the winter and getting more crowded
during the summer months. Most of the villagers of Edige have moved to a nearby
town, Elmadağ, which has a population of 23.000. The third village Kuşcali is located
on the valley, south of the Balaban stream with a population of about 300. The
largest of the four villages Karacahasan is at the western side of the valley with a
population of 600. All four villages are closely located to each other within a distance
of 5-10 km.
2.1. A Social Study in Hisarköy
A social study was carried out in Hisarköy by one of the NGOs in Ankara, Insanlık
Güneşi Vakfi, IGV, as a rural development project which started in 2001 and ended in
February 2004. The aim of this social project was to improve the quality of life in
Hisarköy. One of the objectives of this project was to improve the consciousness of
the people to solve their own problems. A previously established cooperative was
activated and 50 members of this cooperative applied to get 4 cows each from the
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Services. Upon request of the village women, some
courses were organized like pickle making, vegetable conservation, animal
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husbandry. Some of the activities organized by IGV were activation of the abundoned
primary school up to fifth grade with the financial support of the Canadian Embassy,
establishment of a public library, routine eye and dental check-ups, introduction of
broccoli production for the first time in the Kırıkkale province, organization of painting
courses for children and the exhibition of selected paints in Ankara, the redesign of
Hisarköy cemetery.
The villagers of Hisarköy were interviewed by the members of IGV, recently for their
opinion about the Project. The Project was mostly successful; but some of the
applications yielded various unforeseen implications. Broccoli production was
proposed by IGV in Hisarköy two years ago. Experts from Ankara University helped
for the production of this new crop. At the beginning, only the Headman (elected
administrator of villages) planted broccoli in his field, but the rest of the villagers were
hesitant to replace their conventional vegetable production (onion, tomato, green
pepper, leek, sugar beat). Experience of high income obtained from the initial
broccoli production encouraged many others in the village to produce broccoli in their
fields for the following years. Since broccoli was not well known in the nearby city of
Kırıkkale and villagers were not used to market such a valuable crop, they could not
sell their produce and were forced to destroy their crop. However, those who have
contacts in Ankara were able to sell their crop and made good profit.
The reopening of the closed primary school in Hisarköy with the support of the
Canadian Embassy relieved students between the ages of 7 to 12, commuting 12
kilometers every day to nearby town of Kılıçlar. Although the people of Hisarköy
were very enthusiastic about reopening of the school in their village, some
disadvantages of cancelling of the commuting system for the students of 6-8 grades
emerged in the following years. The families started to send their children to a
boarding school in Elmadağ, a major town 15 km to Hisarköy, after their graduation
from the primary school (5 grades) and cancellation of the bus commuting system.
The success of the children at an age of about 12 declined suddenly due to their
adaptation problems in the boarding school. Although the families desired very much
for their children to receive a good education, they are rather helpless due to the
current situation and many consider withdrawing their children from education.
The women in Hisarköy also expressed their opinions very enthusiastically about the
improvement of their relation with the men in the village. It is not typical for Anatolian
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villages in Turkey for men and women to meet together in the same public places
except ceramonial occasions such as weddings, deaths, official and religious
festivals. Men usually meet in coffee houses, and women do not have similar
common locations. However, after three years of contact of members of IGV with the
people of Hisarköy, the segregation of women from public life considerably
diminished. Improved confidence of women eased their relations with men. One of
the village women was elected as the representative of women in the village and she
started to organize all public relations in the village now. She and another village
woman participated a competition organized by the Agricultural Department about
the best agricultural practice among women in the villages of Kırıkkale. They got the
first and second places in this competition. Later they shared the first prize in the
competition held for the mid-Anatolian region. The motivation of the whole village is
at its highest level now.
The three years of extraordinary experience of IGV in Hisarköy revealed that the
primary concern of this village was manifested itself in several fields; better education
of their children, getting higher returns from their produce, taking more mature
decisions about their crops, having better health care, accessing to an enriched
information for their everyday life.
3. An Approach to Handle Complex Sociatal Problem in Balaban Valley
3.1 Problem Definition
The primary aim of this project is to increase the quality of life of villagers; the
developmental changes are expected to be sustainable. We emphasize sustainable
rural development as the critical component, and in essence the core societal issue.
As quality of life is multifaceted and continued economic welfare can be realized
through integrated activities that should by no means hinder one another; thus
sustainability is a must.
The mechanisms that have lead to low quality of life and poor conditions for
development are complicated body of interactions. Low value added throughout
activities (problems specific to the capacity, means and conditions of using
household/family labour) in the area is the main cause of low quality of life. Among
others, basically three ways can lead to higher value added activities: (i) with more
7
knowledge input, (ii) multiplicity in generating value that cross feed one another, and
(iii) a participatory scheme that takes advantage of synergy in joining efforts. This
problem is societal, as it pertains to human activity, community behavior and social
organization.
The resources of the Project area (social, economic, cultural, ecological capital) will
be used in its maximum comprehensive scope and they will be in coordination and in
balance with the external inputs. The changes that are expected to be initiated will
involve a wide range of social, economic, cultural, psychological issues demanding
the analysis of the prevailing basic structural features of life in the valley.
Similar to many developing societies, the agrarian relations in Turkey face important
problems in terms of their conditions of survival within the developing tendencies of
capitalistic changes that are undergoing. The commercialization of the inputs that are
needed for production and consumption and the integration of the villagers/producers
to the extending markets through producing agricultural products and consuming
industrial products force villagers to sustain their life more and more through the
means of commercial relations and extending cash economy. These tendencies have
reciprocal impact on the social and cultural life of the villagers. Those who are
successful in maintaining themselves in rural areas, that is, those resisting to the
forces of migration to cities maintain their life mostly through means of increased
workload and extended labour time. Women and children are mostly observed to be
the disfavoring groups in this resistance to prevailing hardship. The Project thus is
sensitive to take into account the gender relations specific to changing and
developing agrarian relations in the valley. It is well-known in rural development
projects that however development is achieved, its sustainablity is mostly in question
and women’s disfavoring position is rarely taken into account.
The interdisciplinary character of the Project team is considered to be an important
asset in defining and structuring the problem and investigating it, reaching policy
conclusions and implementing them.
3.2. How to Measure the Power of a Community
In the course of the project, the determinants of the power of any human community
will be discussed and a community power index will be developed. Power is defined,
8
in general, as the rate of energy flow.
Alfred Lotka (6) presented an energy
codification of Darwin’s principle of natural selection - the principle of maximum
power selection. Systems develop variety as choices and the system retained by
natural selection is the one that develops more power and channels this energy into
adaptive mechanisms (7). Since nature favors systems that maximize power, the
value of a society could thus be evaluated in terms of power it would generate. For
the specific purpose of our Project, it could be delimited as the capacity to improve
the quality of human labor and the nature and the chances of using it purposively for
the sustainable welfare of the human kind and the protection of the nature.
Factors forming the power of a community are numerous and some can be harder to
evaluate. At this point, one could take two opposite concepts whose interaction
constitutes a power base of a system, namely vulnerability and resilience. The former
is defined as "open (ness) to attack or damage" and obviously reduces the power of
a system; and the latter defined as "the ability to recover from or adjust easily to
misfortune or change" considered as a remedy for the former and affects the overall
power positively (8). One formidable problem that remains to be solved is the
determination of the weights corresponding to each factor in the composition of the
index.
One set of primary factors contributing to the vulnerability of a community can be
classified as follows: inner tensions (conflicts among individuals, groups, classes,
organs of the community), outer tensions (conflicts with nature, with other
communities), and temporal tensions (inertia to adapt oneself, lack of innovation). To
these, one should add a factor that can aggravate any one of them, namely lack of
creativity and diversification and the ensuing dependence. For the development of a
community to be sustainable, wealth and capability building must not put any unequal
strain over natural and social bases of this development. In other words, too much or
too quick development can create vulnerability. This fact is called overdevelopment
by Caldwell (9).
On the other hand, the resilience of a system is accumulated energy (and/or value
created by the purposive act of labor in case of human communities) and functions
and capabilities developed by the system. Wealth of a community is the total stock of
assets a community owns and/or controls. Originally they consist of natural deposits
of energy (non-renewable and renewable resources) including water, minerals, flora,
9
fauna and human population, as well as of man-made ones (physical capital and
inventories) and deposits of value.
The above paragraphs enumerate the main classes of factors contributing positively
or negatively to the power of any community but they should be further scrutinized
and detailed in order to obtain the elements of a multidimensional power index based
on capabilities/vulnerabilities. This, and the very construction of the power index for
the Balaban Valley villages will be the subject of a future study.
3.3. Social and Economic Value Creation
Assuring continual knowledge and financial inputs through governmental or other
incentives and marketability, timing and social approval are critical in success. There
must be a learning component embedded in any kind of change proposal. Learning is
not limited to educating the inhabitants. Villagers have to be encouraged with some
guidance to think over and experiment with small scale pilot applications (plant oil
production, green house farming, and organic farming).
We define sustainablity as maintaining systems that are ecologically sound,
economically and socially viable; and that, in the overall balance, do not exploit or
pollute the existing nature. To that effect setting up cycles is found critical. Cycles will
constitute organized activities that generate either concrete or abstract outcomes
capable of reproducing their requirements in time. We have identified the following
cycles that are worth considering:
1. Animal waste – biogas – fertilizer cycle,
2. Rapeseed – biodiesel – animal feed cycle,
3. Irrigation – land cultivation - bioenergy cycle,
4. Permaculture based cycle.
More detailed accounts on these potential cycles will be given below. The character
of these cycles will be studied with the help of - but not restricted by - mathematical
modelling. We expect that models will assist a multidisciplinary team of experts in
erecting and assuring feasibility of self-sustained cycles. Moreover, models provide a
media to hold discussions with the actors of the Balaban Valley project, as
COMPRAM (10) suggests.
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Recent experience reported by the experts and practioners from the Sustainable
Agriculture and Farmer Assistance Association (Sürdürülebilir Tarım ve Çiftçi
Yardımlaşma Derneği) has dwelled upon the identifying and promoting leadership
from local inhabitants. This association has set its principles in inducing participation
and farmer training, underlining the utmost importance of gaining approval through
self-induced idea creation among the fellow inhabitants throughout education
sessions. We think that this practice is very much what the COMPRAM method
advocates in motivating the actors to be active.
Value creating economic activities will be considered by their particular requirements
and impacts. These can best be studied by a simple system dynamics model. In its
simplest form, a system dynamics model represents evolution in system state
variables in terms of positive and negative loops. A workable balance (or equilibrium)
of many different flows (like funds, manpower use, material) over the acts and
outcomes, and a fit to the unique physical characteristics of the area (soil, irrigation,
weather, etc.) have to be sought. Local leaders informed through expert opinions and
technical support will take initiative in describing these dynamics. This will also
require an educated guess (from the experts) combined local insight as to what these
potential flows can be (both qualitatively and quantitatively) in the near future.
A wealth of data is available in government agencies. One such source is the Town
District Land Resources Rosters (Il Arazi Varlığı kitabı) available through the Rural
Services Directorate (Köy Hizmetleri Müdürlüğü). We also plan for survey data to be
collected via questionnaire applied to households. Township based Agricultural Plans
(Il Master Tarım Planı) will also help to gather necessary basic data.
Collective resolutions will be sought in this rural change project. Lack of initial funds,
knowledge and instutional contacts can only be overcome by mutual support among
the participants. This creates a dichotomy though. On one hand, solid and
undisputed success stories need be shown to induce a widespread acceptance. On
the other hand, success in individual attempts would be very limited unless it has the
minimal required support from the fellow neighbours. For instance, in establishing
institutionalized linkages to market the local produce, at least a few households
should join their efforts.
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Gaining the support of women and respect among the inhabitants for the knowledge
of the experts will be essential in this regard. Demonstrating the benefits of improved
practices on pilot scale through the induced leaders’ farming at the outset will be a
way to penetrate into the complicated social interactions. Mutual trust, respect and
cordiality shall establish through implementation stages of this change project.
Hence, the power factor in COMPRAM will first be understood and later
compassionately steered in support of seeking improvement directions. Assesment
of not only the material facts but such social and pyschological factors need be
included.
3.4. Data Collection, Analysis and Decision Making
It is considered that the relationship between knowledge, attitute and behavior seems
to be a basic interactive relationship that needs to be investigated specific to issues
of sustainable development focused towards improving the quality of life of villagers.
The group of villages sharing the same geography in the valley will bound our
problem. Agricultural development will be the problem context. Traditional forms of
activity and the existing resource infrastructure (land, human resource, knowledge,
capital, technology, etc.) define the starting conditions. After pilot studies, a baseline
field survey pertaining to such conditions followed by a thorough analysis of the
relations specific to the conditions pertaining to achieve sustainable development will
be initiated to generate policy implications and develop and implement policies
towards improving the quality of life of villagers. For this end, the Project aims to
utilize multiple types of studies and data collection techniques. Primarily multiplicity
of study types including exploratory, descriptive and hypothesis generating types of
study will be used. Similarly multiple data collection techniques - documentaryhistorical, observation and survey (questionnary and interviews) are planned to be
used for the knowledge and information needed in the Project.
Ecological land planning, developing renewable energies, sustainable agricultural
practices should be based on the information obtained from environment, and the
behaviour and feelings of people living in the area (social data). Soil quality (SQ)
assessment may facilitate management decisions of farmers who are interested in
sustainable agricultural practices. A SQ index is comprised of a minimum data set of
chemical, biological and physical indicators (11). To make indicator measures
meaningful,
decision
tools
must
provide
agronomic
and
environmental
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interpretations, reflecting both farmer and sociatal values. The villagers perception of
SQ derived from measurements and analysis has been evaluated and agreement
between the two were given by Andrews et al. (12). In this study a link between SQ
and its relation with organic farming will be established. Moreover, the correlation
between SQ and economics will be sought. Adaptive management and decision
making will be supported with the data obtained from the valley dynamically. The
capacity of the valley will be monitored by the images taken from satellite, an
airborne balloon equipped with cameras for stereoscopic images and also by the site
specific stations for local information.
3.5. Mathematical Modeling – Data Collection, Inverse Problems, Statistical
Learning and Decision Making
Since in the previous decades natural resources and financial budgets turned out to
be limited on both a local and a global stage, and since consciousness about a
common responsibility for the heritage earth grew, applied mathematics has more
and more become considered to be promising as a key technology for problem
solving in the minds of decision makers in business and politics and, last but not
least, in public opinion. Herewith, the methodological offers given by applied
mathematics become welcome not only in classical biosciences but, in a wider
sense, in human sciences and, finally, in life sciences.
In the course of the development which modern societies and sciences went through
in the last decades, also mathematical modeling became appreciated, too. Its
“smear” and patterns coming from the contact to real world reality which is asking
applied mathematics for help, become positively reconsidered. In fact, mathematical
modeling is the transformation of problems given to applied mathematics by other
sciences, economy, technology and, as we in this paper mainly focus on, life
sciences, into mathematical formulas. This transformation is worked out together by
both mathematicians and representatives of those other research and application
fields and it consists of an intercultural process of mutual learning. Those formulas
are the reflection of problems discussed together in the language of mathematics.
They are the first “product” of mathematical modeling. Since, however, mutual
learning takes place among human beings which also get introduced and learn
themselves as members of teams, a correction of wrong images about other and own
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scientific cultures and traditions is, hopefully, a second (by-) product of the process of
mathematical modeling.
Before any mathematical modeling or data fitting can be done, a careful data
collection has to be guaranteed. This necessity is subordinate with respect to the
entire applied problem or project under consideration and, herewith, an
interdisciplinary task which finally aims at decision making and problem solving.
Which kinds of data are characteristic for the intended model, what are their physical
dimensions, their chemical, biological, social or financial units? In other words: What
information content and quality of possible data should be preferred, and can those
data be translated and embedded into a sought model which is formulated in
quantitative terms of mathematics? Such a bundle of questions can only be
answered together with the colleagues from other sciences, from technology and
economy. Data collection and acquisition means measurements, experiments, and
communication. This asks for modern technical equipment, a deep understanding of
nature, appropriate financial sources and, last but not least, for an excellent
understanding of men, a psychological and social sensitivity, experience and
devotion. Herewith, data collection, the basis of mathematical modeling, has both its
different targets and its various constraints, i.e., it implies a number of optimization
problems. This first thorough process of optimization underlying the data collection is
sometimes called experimental design. Having made this design and found the data,
then, these data have to be well interpreted. In the following, we shall dynamically
incorporate such a data analysis into the whole entity of mathematical modeling and
problem solution. Hereby, this dynamics will be called learning.
As we saw, mathematical modeling is a transformation – just a translation – by which
a problem solution process initiates which tries to use methods of mathematics. In
fact, a mathematical model is a system where a number of parameters could be
specified by the modeling process itself, but where further variables remain to be
observed or optimized in the sequel, e.g., in the course of time. Such a system may
be a system of linear or nonlinear equations, differential of integral equations,
dynamical systems, optimization or optimal control problems. However, mathematical
modeling itself takes into account a larger time horizon. In fact, provided a number of
samples, measurements or experiments are done, such that data are collected, and
provided a certain first relation about how these data can be explained, how they
became an outcome of a system from, e.g., life sciences, then mathematical
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modeling describes such a model closer, specifies model parameters which still were
unknown. Since those real data are mostly affected with noise, with various
measurement inaccuracies or perturbations in signal transfer, this specification is
mostly done according to a maximum likelihood of those parameter values. We also
say that these parameters become estimated, and we talk about an inverse problem:
the conclusion of “inner” parameters on the basis of “outer” data (13). The aspect of
prediction, i.e., anticipation of future, consists in the wide functional domain and
range of the mathematical model. Based on a countable, in general, finite set of data
which are due to discrete time points, the model with its estimated parameter values
(according to highest evidence, maximum likelihood), describes the considered
system from real life in a way which encompasses a continuum of time points and,
finally, even future. When a modeling is done, i.e., estimation made, then the
utilization of confidence regions, tests and correlation coefficients serve for validating
the goodness of data fitting and for working out intrinsic substructures of the system
where the model can be reduced to.
In the simple case of a model without noise in the data, i.e., which is deterministic
rather than stochastic, we are looking for “least squares” of errors of the approximate
model parameters. In the more realistic stochastic case which we take into account,
we maximize the likelihood, or we minimize the expected squared error. Observation
and minimization of those and further errors, biases and variances is the object of
interest of statistical learning and simulation (14); for a new approach to the implied
aspect of prediction by optimization we refer to (15). In fact, while model building
means some training of the model based on the input of data, the learning process
taking place then, implies a testing and permanent model improvement by
diminishing of training error and test error. This means a mathematical approach to
learning, and continuous learning prepares and enables for decision making.
For the Balaban Valley project, mathematical modeling, the theory of inverse
problems and statistical learning, are considered to contribute to answers of
problems from the following fields:
•
statistical analysis of questionnaires about the village peoples’ wishes, sorrows
and expectations,
•
modeling of the migration developments between the valley and outside,
15
•
modeling of the relation between the villages in the valley,
•
modeling in forestry and of resource utilization in the valley, e.g., wastewater
cycle,
•
modeling and optimization of first plans in agricultural and further refining
production, and in trading.
3.6. Conceived Sustainability Cycles
3.6.1. Animal Waste – Biogas – Fertilizer Cycle
Various traditional energy sources are used in villages in Turkey. The biomass
energy is the most abundant source of heat energy, i.e., kitchen use and home
heating. The sun dried cow dunk is one of the most common fuel used for heating
purposes in villages. Using wood from nearby forest or tree brunches from pruning is
rather limited as biomass source because most of the anatolian villages are in arid
regions and steps. Using animal dunk and wood as primary heat source is the least
efficient way of using this biomass energy source. A more efficient way of energy
conversion may be achieved if animal waste is converted to biogas and the residue
after this process is a valuable fertilizer to condition soil in organic farming.
Anaerobic digestion of animal waste was applied world wide, especially in India,
China, south Asian countries, Europe, and Africa. In Balaban Valley project a small
scale biogas digester will be initiated for one-to-several cows that can be expanded
in the future with increasing number of cows in the farm. The digestor will be
constructed from an inexpensive, light and durable material for long life time and with
a temperature controller to keep the system at optimum condition for biogas
production.
Figure 1 depicts our notion of an sustainability-improved temporal cycle. In Figure 1a
lower quality waste cycle is shown. In Figure 1b some new elements with impacts to
induce sustainaibility with a higher quality are added. Some elements are intangible
shown by dashed lines. Induced income through cost savings and higher marketable
value in a period, in turn, feeds the cycle through better spending on primary sources
of energy and investments to enlarge the basis for cultivation and farm animals in the
next period. Hence sustainability is assured better.
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(a)
sun
water
plant
cow
products
(milk,
meat)
waste
heat
(dunk)
fertilizer
(b)
sun
investment
water
plant
cow
products
(milk, meat)
waste
heat
(dunk)
enlarged
basis for
marketability
fertilizer
heat or
electrical
energy
biogas reactor
high density energy
(tractor fuel, electricity)
cost savings and increased
expendable income and
savings
investment
expenditure on energy consumption
Figure 1. A conceived animal waste-biogas cycle; (a) conventional low energy cycle,
(b) high efficiency energy cycle.
3.6.2. Rapeseed – Biodiesel – Animal Feed Cycle
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One of the major expenses of the people living in the village is the cost of the diesel
fuel used in tractors for agriculture and transportation. Biodiesel is becoming an
alternative to fossil fuel and is getting popular world wide due to its neutrality in terms
of carbon dioxide contribution to the atmosphere and low sulfur dioxide content. Now,
a project is developed for construction of a small scale biodiesel reactor, with seed
press and storage tanks by the participation of Middle East Technical University,
İstanbul Technical University, EIE (State Electricity Works) and other universities,
and companies joint around a multidisciplinary study. Rapeseed will be grown in the
region as a source of oil. This plant is the choosen due to high oil content of its seeds
(38-50%). A 200-L capacity biodiesel reactor will be constructed and a small scale
production will be carried out on rapeseed oil that will be obtained from a pilot
plantation. The biodiesel fuel production will be carried out by the technical staff of
fhe project. We demonstrate our initial idea of integrating biodiesel producing process
with the increased potential for expendable income and animal husbandry in Figure
2. Sustainability is through channeling the effects of extra income. This reproductive
potential needs to be carefully planned for through the use of dynamic modelling for
optimal returns in time.
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enlarged cultivation
land and irrigation
potential
rapeseed
plantation
conveyor belt (1)
seed press
Investment
filter (3)
oil storage tank
cost savings and
increased
expendable income
through animal
farming
residue as animal feed
NaOH tank (5)
methanol tank (6)
metoxide mixer (7)
esterification reactor
water tank (9)
P-2
decantation tanks
(10)
washing
system (11)
glycerol tank (12)
biodiesel tank (13)
Figure 2. Rapeseed – Biodiesel – animal feed cycle
3.6.3. Irrigation – Land Cultivation - Bioenergy Cycle
Various energy efficient agricultural practices will be considered in Balaban Valley
Project. Water management systems using drip irrigation and decision making on the
quality of soil will be considered. Our conception of the cycle formed by irrigation
inducing increased biodiesel source plants to be fed back into the water cycle as
source of energy needed to pump water to higher lands is shown in Figure 3 below.
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The dashed box for increased income and investment rises the need to discover
intelligent ways to apportion funds among various uses, namely to improve water
sources and irrigation network. Modelling can help in this regard to allocate
investable savings through time.
pump
water storage
tank
valve
water
resource
electrical
energy
biodiesel
production
enlarged cultivation
land and irrigation
potential
plants
increased
income and
investment
Figure 3. Irrigation – cultivation – bioenergy cycle
3.6.4. Permaculture based cycle
Recently organic agriculture is of great interest all over the world. In organic
agriculture almost no synthetic chemicals are used. In Balaban Valley Project the
organic residue from biogas and biodiesel production and other sources of biomass
will be composted and used in soil as fertilizer. Instead of using pesticides, an
“Integrated Pest Management” (IPM) system is considered during the selection of the
plants so as they may affect each other in a positive way; pests which are harmful for
a kind of plant are repelled by another kind of plant and a synergy is created between
them. A new design concept is developed for creating sustainable human
environments in Australia by Bill Mollison (16). The aim is to create systems that are
ecologically sound and economically viable, and do not exploit or pollute, hence are
sustainable in the long term. Permaculture uses the inherent qualities of plants and
animals combined with the natural characteristics of landscapes to produce a lifesupporting system. We will consider this combination as another cycle to be set up
as illustrated in Figure 4. All these new concepts will be developed with participation
of experts and actors of the Balaban valley, the villagers using the methodologies
described on COMPRAM.
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sun
soil
plants
microorganisms
pests
residue
energy
production
water, nutrients, air,
environmental
parameters
animals
waste
Figure 4. Creating synergy between plants, animals and environment using
permaculture design criteria.
3.6.5. Sustainable Agriculture
Ecological systems are under heavy threat of pollution for about 30 years. This
period coincides with what is called a “green revolution” due to wide spread irrigation,
intense fertilization of soil and developing more resistant plants to patogens and
insects. The annual global synthetic fertilizer consumption increased from 31 million
tons to 135 million tons from 1961 to 1996 (3). Large scale use of fertilizers and
pesticides caused many health problems on public, increase the pollution of land and
natural water. Moreover, the quality of products degraded due to rapid growth of
plants using growth hormons and many other chemicals. Although more than 100 %
increase in agricultural production was obtained during the green revolution, this is
also the main reason for degredation of ecological systems.
Present status of agriculture in Balaban Valley is the conventional agricultural
practices; synthetic fertilizers and pesticides are widely used and a few crops (grains
and sunflower in arid lands, vegetables in irrigated lands) are planted each year.
Water channels spreaded over the valley are used for irrigation of fields weekly.
These fields are flattened for spreading the water uniformly and soil is soaked in
water directed from these channels. Due to intense water consumption in this
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conventional irrigation system, water in Balaban stream dried completely in some
dry summer months.
3.6.7. Education for All
For the people living in rural area education of their children have prime importance.
They think their children can find jobs in a nearby town or a large city if they are well
educated. Turkish primary school education is common for all students which covers
8 years, and three-year secondary education is given either in general high school for
preparing students to university education, and technical or nontechnical high
schools for training students for work after graduation, at the same time giving them
a chance to enter university if they are successful in a common university entrance
examination. However, in Turkey there are only limited number of high schools on
agricultural training. Students from rural area who has a chance to go to high school
usually prefer going to a technical high school. Thus, the youngsters from rural area
have a desire to migrate larger town and expect to find a job in an industrial field
rather than staying in the village and working with the soil.
One of the aims of Balaban Valley project is to provide complementary education for
all people living in rural areas in a holistic way; that is in fields of agriculture, ecology
(understanding relations in nature), technical, social and art. Various modern tools
(computer with internet connection, scanner, printer, digital camera, TV, video) will be
utilized for accessing and dissiminating information. The training will be carried out
with experts and students from universities and teaching will be based on appications
and hand-on experiments. The training program will be developed with the desire of
the local people and recommendations from experts. Here, the methodology of
COMPRAM will be considered.
Conlusions
Balaban Valley Project will be handled as a complex societal problem to improve the
quality of life in rural area in central Turkey. Experts from different fields and actors
(villagers, state organizations, university students, NGO’s) will participate in this
study in the framework of COMPRAM method. The renewable energies such as
biogas, biodiesel, and efficient irrigation, organic farming, will be considered as
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Turkey’s primary goals in rural development. Energy, irrigation and agricultural cycles
will be developed for improving efficiency of production, hence lowering the burden of
development on environment. Education of people at all levels is another issue in this
project. The interaction between neighbor villages will be improved using modern
information technologies. Balaban Valley Project is a model project and standards
developed here will be extended to the other villages in future.
References
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1602-1603.
2. World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) (Johannesburg, 26 August 4 September 2002), Plan of Implementation, paragraph 40)
3. http://www.fao.org
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into
Agricultural
Policies”,
FAO
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Economic
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7. “Ecosystem Modelling in Theory and Practice: An Introduction with Case Histories”
Eds. Hall C.A.S., Day J.W., Wiley-Interscience Publication, 1977.
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European Journal of Operational Research (2001) 128, 266-281.
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11. Andrews SS, Michell JP, Mancinelli R, Karlen DL, Hartz TK Horwarth WR,
Pettygrove GS, Scow KM, Munk DS, “On-farm assessment of soil quality on
California’s central valley”, Agronomy Journal (2002) 94, 12-23.
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acceptance of soil quality indices”. Geoderma 114(2003) 187-213.
13. Aster, A., Borchers, B., Thurber, C., Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems,
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16. Introduction to Permaculture” Bill Mollison, Tagari Publications, Australia, 2nd
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