Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 1 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Joint venture: The legalization of recreational marijuana has brought revenue to new highs This report was provided to University of Alberta (2133882029) by IBISWorld on 08 September 2019 in accordance with their licence agreement with IBISWorld IBISWorld Industry Report 11141CA Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 Ediz Ozelkan 2 About this Industry 16 International Trade 32 Regulation and Policy 2 Industry Definition 17 Business Locations 33 Industry Assistance 2 Main Activities 2 Similar Industries 19 Competitive Landscape 34 Key Statistics 2 Additional Resources 19 Market Share Concentration 34 Industry Data 19 Key Success Factors 34 Annual Change 3 Industry at a Glance 19 Cost Structure Benchmarks 34 Key Ratios 4 Industry Performance 22 Barriers to Entry 4 Executive Summary 23 Industry Globalization 4 Key External Drivers 6 Current Performance 25 Major Companies 8 Industry Outlook 25 Aurora Cannabis Inc. 22 Basis of Competition 10 Industry Life Cycle 35 Jargon & Glossary 26 Canopy Growth Corporation 27 Aphria Inc. 12 Products and Markets 12 Supply Chain 29 Operating Conditions 12 Products and Services 29 Capital Intensity 13 Demand Determinants 30 Technology and Systems 14 Major Markets 31 Revenue Volatility www.ibisworld.ca | 1-800-330-3772 | info @ibisworld.ca Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 2 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA About this Industry Industry Definition This industry includes all companies licensed by Health Canada to cultivate, produce and sell products containing marijuana for medical and recreational consumption. The Main Activities The primary activities of this industry are value of medical marijuana grown privately and illegal purchases of cannabis products for recreational use are both excluded from this industry. Growing marijuana Retailing marijuana products Processing marijuana into derivatives and consumer products The major products and services in this industry are Capsules/seeds Concentrates Dried cannabis Other Similar Industries 31214CA Distilleries in Canada Distilleries produce spirits and other alcoholic beverages. 31222CA Cigarette & Tobacco Manufacturing in Canada This industry manufactures cigarettes and other tobacco products. 32541aCA Brand-Name Pharmaceutical Manufacturing in Canada This industry manufactures pharmaceutical products used to treat illnesses. Additional Resources For additional information on this industry www.canada.ca/en/health-canada Health Canada www.mpp.org Marijuana Policy Project www.norml.org National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws www.statcan.gc.ca Statistics Canada IBISWorld writes over 400 Canadian industry reports to help you make better business decisions, faster. To see all reports, go to www.ibisworld.ca Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 3 Industry at a Glance Cannabis Production in 2018 Key Statistics Snapshot Revenue Annual Growth 13–18 Annual Growth 18–23 Profit Wages Businesses $916.6m 115.3% 53.6% $-183.0m $342.9m 120 Number of adults aged 65 and older Revenue vs. employment growth Market Share Aurora Cannabis Inc. 25.9% 1600 8 Canopy Growth Corporation 16.1% Million people % change 1200 800 400 0 Aphria Inc. 9.2% -400 Year 10 12 14 16 Revenue 18 20 22 24 7 6 5 4 Year 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Employment SOURCE: IBISWORLD p. 25 Products and services segmentation (2018) 5.3% Key External Drivers 7.8% Regulation Other Capsules/seeds Number of adults aged 65 and older External competition Per capita disposable income Total health expenditure 56.0% Concentrates 30.9% Dried cannabis p. 4 SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Industry Structure Life Cycle Stage Revenue Volatility Capital Intensity Growth Very High High Regulation Level Technology Change Heavy Medium Barriers to Entry High Industry Assistance Medium Industry Globalization Low Concentration Level Medium Competition Level High FOR ADDITIONAL STATISTICS AND TIME SERIES SEE THE APPENDIX ON PAGE 34 Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 4 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Executive Summary | Key External Drivers | Current Performance Industry Outlook | Life Cycle Stage Executive Summary Over the five years to 2018, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada has transitioned from a single government-sponsored provider of medical cannabis products to a highly competitive industry comprising dozens of private companies. In late 2013, Canada enacted the Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations, which expanded access to medical marijuana by enabling Health Canada to issue licences for private companies to cultivate, The opening of the recreational market is expected to sustain industry revenue growth produce and sell cannabis products to registered patients with medical prescriptions. This policy shift has resulted in surging demand for medical cannabis, with the number of clients registered at Health Canada’s licensed providers increasing from just 15,545 clients in December 2014 to over 330,000 clients in May 2018. As a result, industry revenue is estimated to increase at an annualized rate of 115.3% to $916.6 million over the five years to 2018. Key External Drivers Regulation In recent years, the loosening of government regulations on the sale and consumption of medical marijuana has resulted in surging demand for industry services. In 2018, the degree of government regulation affecting this industry will likely decline, in line with the passage of the Cannabis Act in October. This development represents a potential opportunity for industry operators. Number of adults aged 65 and older Individuals aged 65 and older are more likely to require medical marijuana The Cannabis Act was implemented in October 2018, which legalized recreational marijuana for individuals over the age of 18. The flowering recreational market has only just begun to influence industry operations, but it offers the newfound enterprises that comprise the industry room to grow. This budding industry is projected to flower as a loosened regulatory environment fertilizes the consumer landscape permitting cannabis producers to take root, leading to a 111.0% spike in industry revenue in 2018 alone as recreational marijuana is legalized. In turn, this legislation substantially increased the industry’s total customer base, as the population of Canadians who have used cannabis products is expected to reach 5.1 million people in 2018, according to data from Statistics Canada. The opening of the recreational market is expected to sustain industry revenue growth. However, initially high retail prices due to insufficient supply is expected to be ameliorated in upcoming years, limiting industry revenue growth. Ultimately, industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 53.6% to $7.8 billion over the five years to 2023. products, as health conditions commonly treated with medical marijuana (e.g. Alzheimer’s disease) are particularly prevalent among members of this age group. As the population ages, demand for industry services will grow, resulting in revenue growth. The number of adults aged 65 and older is expected to increase in 2018. External competition Providers of medical marijuana must compete with conventional healthcare services and products, as well as blackmarket alternatives, as the vast majority of marijuana in Canada is still sold Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 5 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance illegally. External competition from traditional drug and healthcare providers, as well as from black-market sources, is expected to grow in 2018, posing a potential threat to the industry. Per capita disposable income While demand for medicinal products that require a prescription is generally unaffected by fluctuations in overall consumer expenditure, many consumers pay out of pocket for industry products. As a result, the industry’s medical cannabis services benefit from rising levels of disposable income and improving consumer conditions. Per capita disposable income is expected to increase in 2018. Total health expenditure Total health expenditure captures the total amount of private and public spending on healthcare services and products. Since the bulk of industry revenue is derived from the lucrative medical market, increases in health expenditure should place upward pressure on industry revenue. In 2018, total health expenditure is expected to rise. Per capita disposable income Number of adults aged 65 and older 8 3 7 2 % change Million people Key External Drivers continued 6 5 4 Year 10 1 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 -1 Year 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 SOURCE: IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 6 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Cultivating the recreational market Over the five years to 2018, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada has experienced several major shifts in industry regulations, as well as broader public perception, sprouting numerous cultivation and processing operations in the process. Historically, the industry has been composed of a small number of independent companies that are licensed by Health Canada to provide medical marijuana to patients with prescriptions. However, this competitive market for medical cannabis products was only formed in 2013. As a result, the past five years have been characterized by a wave of new operators entering this budding market, in addition to significant product innovation. Ultimately, industry revenue is estimated to increase at an annualized rate of 115.3% to $916.6 million over the five years to 2018, primarily driven by a loosening of the medical marijuana regulatory framework. Furthermore, while the industry has taken root in the medical marijuana market, opportunities abound in the recently flowered recreational consumption market. The Cannabis Act, implemented on October 17, 2018, legalized recreational marijuana use domestically. The anticipation of this legalization prompted myriad newfound enterprises and catalyzed profound capital expenditures to develop an agricultural, processing, distribution and retail infrastructure for the cultivation and sale of cannabis products to the consumer market. Accordingly, the structure of the industry and its potential for growth has fundamentally changed, facilitating a projected expansion of 111.0% in 2018 alone. Amid surging consumer demand for medical marijuana and the legalization of recreational marijuana in late 2018, the number of enterprises in the Cannabis Production industry is projected to increase at an annualized rate of 82.1% to 120 companies over the five years to 2018, while total industry employment has grown an annualized 44.6% during the same period, reaching an estimated 6,959 employees. However, despite strong downstream demand, compliance costs and significant initial capital outlays have made it difficult for operators in this emerging market to generate profit as industry operators create the infrastructure that will enable returns in the long run. Overall, the industry is estimated to record an average profit margin of -20.0% in 2018, though industry profitability will likely improve in coming years, as the industry begins to benefit from economies of scale, increased purchasing power and other operating efficiencies that are common in more well-established industries. Industry revenue 1200 900 % change Current Performance 600 300 0 Year 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 SOURCE: IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 7 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Budding market for medical marijuana For decades, proponents of medical marijuana have argued that cannabis products could be used to treat or ameliorate a wide range of ailments, including Alzheimer’s disease, anorexia, glaucoma, cancer, arthritis, epilepsy, nausea, migraines and multiple sclerosis. In 2001, Canada became one of the first countries to legalize the production and consumption of marijuana for medical purposes, though these early operations were somewhat limited in scope. Under new regulations, individuals with a medical prescription were permitted to grow a small amount of their own cannabis or purchase cannabis from a single Health Canada-affiliated producer, Prairie Plant Systems Inc. (PPS). PPS remained Canada’s sole legal provider of medical cannabis until 2013, when the Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations were enacted. Under this law, private companies could apply to Health Canada for a licence to produce and distribute dried marijuana flower to individuals holding a prescription; however, these regulations also Extracting demand The development of cannabis derivate products has also spurred greater consumer acceptance of medical and recreational marijuana. Cannabis derivates primarily take the form of oil, which can then be used for medical purposes in capsules and topical solutions or for consumer applications in beverages and food, also known as edibles. Edibles can take the form of food, extracts and oils, ranging from marijuana-infused oils to finished products such as candies, baked goods and beverages, among many other products. Edibles provide a more convenient and familiar product to consumers, stimulating consumer prohibited patients from growing their own medical cannabis at home. Since then, dozens of companies have entered the market for medical marijuana, while a series of court decisions has caused the Canadian government to redefine and further loosen restrictions on medical marijuana sales, including the re-establishment of provisions for patients to grow their own cannabis and the expansion of legal forms of medicinal cannabis to include oils, edibles and other previously niche products. As a result of these trends, the use of medical marijuana has increased substantially in recent years. According to data from Health Canada, more than 330,000 clients were registered to purchase medical cannabis through licensed producers in May 2018, up from just 15,545 clients in December 2014. This trend has been supported by the country’s growing population of elderly individuals, a demographic that typically consumes a disproportionately large share of healthcare services, including medical cannabis. Edibles provide a more convenient and familiar product to consumers demand for marijuana products. Many providers have also expanded their product lines to include vaporizers, joints and other cannabis products. Leading operators have embraced product development, causing the production of cannabis derivatives and concentrates to overtake traditional dried cannabis products in 2017, marking a paradigm shift in industry production and downstream demand. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 8 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Industry Outlook Moving forward, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada will continue to blaze a trail through the Canadian economy, though industry revenue growth will decelerate as the explosions of activity following recent policy changes begin to settle down. This budding industry is projected to flower as a loosened regulatory environment fertilizes the consumer landscape permitting cannabis producers to take root. After the passage of the Cannabis Act in October 2018, the industry is projected to benefit from substantial pent-up demand for recreational marijuana, as many of the estimated 2.1 million individuals in Canada who consume cannabis at least once per week Legislation and consumer trends The Cannabis Act created a legal framework for controlling the production, distribution and consumption of recreational cannabis products in Canada. This bill follows favourable trends in the public perception of marijuana, which is expected to instigate demand for legally purchased marijuana in upcoming years as early prices, inflated by insufficient supply, begin to come down. According to the law, individuals aged 18 and older would be able to legally possess up to 30.0 grams of dried cannabis, purchase cannabis products from provincially licensed retailers and grow up to four cannabis plants per residence, substantially expanding the market for marijuana products. As recreational marijuana is generally considered a discretionary purchase, the industry is projected to benefit from rising levels of disposable income. Over the next five years, per capita disposable income is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 2.4%, while total consumer spending is projected to increase an annualized 1.6% during the will be able to legally purchase cannabis products for the first time. This new source of industry revenue will be supplemented by increasingly favourable attitudes toward medical marijuana, causing demand for higher-margin medical cannabis products to germinate. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of 53.6% over the next five years, reaching an estimated $7.8 billion in 2023. In addition to industry-specific trends in regulation and public sentiment, industry revenue is also expected to benefit from improving consumer conditions, as rising levels of disposable income, increased life expectancy and other economic drivers bolster demand for cannabis products. The industry will benefit from rising levels of disposable income same period. These bullish trends will enable a greater number of Canadians to purchase medical and recreational marijuana products or trade up to more expensive varieties. As a result of these positive trends, the number of licensed cannabis providers in Canada is projected to increase at an annualized rate of 47.4% to 836 enterprises over the five years to 2023. Similarly, the number of employees involved in legal cannabis production is forecast to grow an annualized 50.9% during the same period, totalling 54,386 workers in 2023. Simultaneously, wage expenditures are expected to grow more rapidly than employment, suggesting a higher average salary for industry employees as companies focus on research and development. Moreover, industry profitability is expected to improve modestly in Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 9 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Legislation and consumer trends continued coming years, though overall industry profit margins will likely remain negative during the upcoming period as industry operators establish their footing through heightened capital expenditures to develop a cultivation and distribution infrastructure endemic to mature industries. At the same time, the industry will remain subject to a high degree of government oversight; under the Cannabis Act, provinces and territories are largely responsible for overseeing the distribution and sale of cannabis products in their region. For example, provincial governments are able to Demographics and medical marijuana Building off significant expansion during the current five-year period, the market for medicinal marijuana will also experience substantial growth in coming years, bolstered by the gradual aging of the Canadian population and the anticipated market acceptance of medical marijuana products as the industry focuses on the development of new products. Over the next five years, the median age in Canada is projected to increase at an annualized rate of 0.5%. Supporting this age increase, the total number of Canadians aged 65 and older is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.4% to 7.5 million people over the five years to 2023. In turn, this trend will lead to a growing number of people with health conditions that can be treated or alleviated with marijuana (e.g. cancer and glaucoma), as these conditions generally increase in incidence with age. For instance, a growing number of doctors and patients will turn to the unconventional treatment offered by medical marijuana for conditions such as arthritis, migraines and Alzheimer’s disease. The growing prevalence of chronic health ailments, such as obesity and diabetes, increase the minimum age for recreational use, lower the possession limit within their region and create additional rules for growing cannabis at home. Plus, provincial governments have limited the retail potential of cannabis to key provincial providers, similar to alcohol. For example, in Ontario, recreational cannabis can only be purchased at Ontario Cannabis Retail Corporation establishments while the sale of medical cannabis is still relegated to specialized dispensaries. Consequently, industry performance will continue to vary among provinces and territories. The market for medicinal marijuana will experience substantial growth in coming years will also augment demand for medical marijuana as industry operators continue to innovate and expand the medicinal potential of cannabis. Additionally, while demand for medicinal products that require a prescription is generally unaffected by fluctuations in overall consumer expenditure, many consumers pay out of pocket for industry products since most insurers do not cover cannabis treatments. As a result, the industry’s medical cannabis segment will also benefit from rising levels of disposable income and improving consumer conditions. At the same time, medical marijuana dispensaries will likely encounter competition from conventional healthcare providers, as some medical professionals remain skeptic of the legitimacy and effectiveness of medical marijuana. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 10 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Life Cycle Stage The industry is growing at a significantly faster pace than the broader Canadian economy The number of industry enterprises has experienced surging growth in recent years Customer acceptance of industry products is increasing The recent legalization of recreational marijuana will stimulate consumer demand Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 11 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Industry Performance Industry Life Cycle This industry is G rowing The Cannabis Production industry in Canada is in the growth stage of its economic life cycle, as illustrated by a wave of new companies entering the market, shifting consumer attitudes and the legalization of recreational cannabis in 2018 which introduces a new market for industry operators. Moreover, industry value added, which measures the industry’s contribution to the broader economy, is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 80.1% over the 10 years to 2023, while Canadian GDP is forecast to increase at an annualized rate of just 1.9% during the same period. The sizable contrast between these two growth rates indicates that the industry will account for an increasingly significant share of the overall Canadian economy in coming years as it establishes its footing. In 2013, Health Canada began issuing licences to Canadian companies to produce and distribute dried marijuana flower to individuals holding a medical prescription. Since then, the number of companies providing medical marijuana in Canada has grown from just one government-affiliated provider to more than 100 independent enterprises in 2018. This expansion has been supported by shifting attitudes toward both medical and nonmedical cannabis consumption. Moreover, data from Statistics Canada suggests that an estimated 14.0% of all Canadians aged 15 and older reported using some form of cannabis in the past three months, making the newly opened recreational market an important contributor to industry expansionary potential. The October 2018 passage of the Cannabis Act legalized the recreational production and consumption of cannabis for individuals aged 18 and older, making Canada the first developed nation to fully legalize marijuana. In turn, the passage of this law dramatically expanded the industry’s total customer base overnight. For example, whereas Health Canada reports that just over 330,000 clients were registered with the agency’s licensed marijuana producers as of June 2018, data from Statistics Canada indicates there are more than 5.0 million cannabis users across Canada in 2018. This factor suggests that there is significant room for the industry to continue growing in coming years. This budding industry is projected to flower as a loosened regulatory environment fertilizes the consumer landscape permitting cannabis producers to germinate. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 12 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Supply Chain | Products and Services | Demand Determinants Major Markets | International Trade | Business Locations Supply Chain KEY BUYING INDUSTRIES 44611CA Pharmacies & Drug Stores in Canada Pharmacies purchase medical marijuana for retail purposes. 9901CA Consumers in Canada Consumers are individuals with prescriptions from health care practitioners to purchase medical marijuana. KEY SELLING INDUSTRIES Products and Services 32531CA Fertilizer Manufacturing in Canada Some medical marijuana growers use fertilizers to improve soil nutrient. 32532CA Pesticide Manufacturing in Canada Some medical marijuana growers use pesticides during the growing process. 33511CA Lighting & Bulb Manufacturing in Canada Indoor medical marijuana growing is heavily dependent on artificial lighting. 33522CA Major Household Appliance Manufacturing in Canada Refrigeration equipment is commonly used to store cannabis products in dispensaries. Products and services segmentation (2018) 7.8% 5.3% Other Capsules/seeds 56.0% 30.9% Concentrates Dried cannabis Total $916.6m Concentrates Cannabis concentrates represent the largest product category for industry operators, and this segment includes any product created by an extraction process. Common forms of concentrate include: kief, a dry sift or pollen of the cannabis flower; hash, a concentrate made from compressing cannabis plant resin; butane hash oil (BHO), or a potent concentrate consumed for dabbing and other vaporization methods; CO2 oil, used in SOURCE: IBISWORLD portable vaporizer pens; Rick Simpson Oil (RSO) or Phoenix Tears, which is orally administered or applied directly to the skin; and tinctures, a liquid form of concentrate. This high degree of product innovation, and particularly the surging popularity of vaporizer pens, has been bolstered by growing consumer demand for electronic cigarettes as an alternative to traditional cigarettes. Ultimately, the various potential applications for concentrates is the Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 13 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Products and Services continued Demand Determinants fundamental facilitator of its widespread production as opposed to the traditional dried cannabis business model. For example, eEdible marijuana products (edibles), or marijuana-infused products, are goods that contain cannabis that can be consumed orally. Edibles can take the form of food, extracts and oils, and range from marijuana-infused mints and candies to baked goods and beverages, along with many other products. Over the past five years, edible marijuana products have grown rapidly as a share of industry revenue and are expected to continue growing as a share of industry revenue over the next five years, particularly as the passage of the Cannabis Act expands the industry’s customer base to include relatively young recreational users. Overall, concentrates represent one of the industry’s fastest-growing segments, and these products are expected to account for 56.0% of total industry revenue in 2018. muscle spasms. In general, indica provides more physical relaxation than the sativa strain, and many consumers use indica as a sleep aid. Common indica strains include White Berry, Blueberry and Northern Lights. In contrast, sativa cannabis products are commonly used as a stimulant to improve appetite, relieve depression, migraines, pain and nausea. Sativa is also more popular for patients during the day because it can increase alertness. Popular strains of sativa include Haze and Trainwreck. Over the past five years, this product segment has declined considerably as a share of industry revenue, as oil-based products have become increasingly popular. According to data from Statistics Canada, cannabis oil overtook dried marijuana in May 2017 as the largest product category (by volume) for Health Canada’s licensed producers. Dried cannabis Smokable marijuana products, also known as flower or bud products, represent the traditional source of revenue for industry operators, accounting for an estimated 30.9% of the industry’s total revenue in 2018. There are several varieties of cannabis plant, with indica and sativa plants representing the most common families of marijuana strains. Indica products are often used to treat anxiety, chronic pain, insomnia and Other Other products commonly sold by industry operators include smoking paraphernalia, such as grinders, lighters, bongs and pipes, as well as other miscellaneous strains and varieties of cannabis. Plus, many operators, vanguards of proprietary cultivation and processing procedures, also sell growing equipment, formulas for feeding cannabis plants and processing machinery. Collectively, these operations are expected to constitute the remaining 5.3% of total industry revenue. Demand for industry products is primarily determined by government regulation. Historically, recreational cannabis consumption has been illegal and medical marijuana consumption was permitted in 2001. Notably, as outlined more fully in the regulation and policy section of this report, recreational marijuana consumption was legalized in October 2018 under the Cannabis Act. Under this legislation, individuals aged 18 and older can possess up to 30.0 grams of legal dried cannabis, share up to 30.0 grams of legal cannabis with other adults, purchase a variety of cannabis products from provincially licensed retailers and grow up to four cannabis plants per residence. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 14 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Demand Determinants continued Major Markets Population demographics, particularly age, also dictate demand trends for medical marijuana, since adults aged 50 and older are more likely to develop health conditions such as cancer, Alzheimer’s, chronic pain, glaucoma and other diseases that can be treated with medical marijuana. Household income is another significant determinant of consumers’ ability to acquire cannabis products. The legalization of medical marijuana has created a market for high-quality cannabis, which can be expensive. Furthermore, because medical marijuana is typically not covered under health insurance plans, demand is largely dependent on patients’ income levels. However, these demographic trends are not necessarily representative of the market for recreational marijuana. Should the Cannabis Act become law, factors such as price, marketing and availability will likely become increasingly important determinants of consumer demand, as the industry will gradually begin to resemble the market for alcohol and other controlled substances. At the recreational level, macroeconomic factors that contribute to consumer spending are boons for the industry. For example, rising levels of per capita disposable income, lower unemployment rates and high consumer confidence are positive catalysts of industry demand. If individuals have more money and believe that the economy is doing well, they are more likely to purchase discretionary items such as alcohol and cannabis. However, health consciousness is a persistent threat to demand as the health effects of cannabis become more widely studied. Nonetheless, most of the detrimental health outcomes are a result of smoking rather than the consumption of cannabis in totality, leaving demand for edibles and other derivates-based products largely untouched. Major market segmentation (2018) 3.0% Consumers aged 65 and older 4.4% Consumers aged 15 to 17 42.2% 24.9% Consumers aged 45 to 64 Total $916.6m Consumers aged 25 to 44 25.5% Consumers aged 18 to 24 The following data represents an agebased breakdown of Canada’s overall marijuana-consuming population, and it includes illicit marijuana purchases. SOURCE: IBISWORLD According to data from Statistics Canada’s National Cannabis Survey, an estimated 14.0% of Canadians aged 15 and older reported using some form of Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 15 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Major Markets continued cannabis in the past three months, though this figure varies considerably among provinces, ranging from just 10.0% of respondents in Quebec to a relatively high 20.0% of individuals in Nova Scotia. Additionally, among those individuals who have consumed cannabis in the past three months, an estimated 40.0% use it daily. Consumers aged 15 to 17 According to data from Statistics Canada, more than 92,000 Canadians between the ages of 15 and 17 consume marijuana at least once per week. At the same time, consumers in this segment represent a declining source of revenue for marijuana producers over the past five years, while the number of consumers in every other age category has experienced considerable growth. In 2018, these individuals are estimated to account for just 4.4% of the total marijuanaconsuming population. Consumers aged 18 to 24 Young adults in this market segment constitute the second-largest source of revenue for Canadian marijuana producers, accounting for an estimated 25.5% of the nation’s total marijuana sales. Over the past five years, the number of young adults who consume cannabis at least once per week has increased at a stable annualized rate of 1.8%, reaching an estimated customer base of more than 531,000 individuals in 2018. Despite relatively modest growth in the size of this segment, growing demand from consumers within this demographic has resulted in significant product innovation, including the surging popularity of edible and oil-based cannabis products. Moving forward, this segment will likely expand as a share of marijuana revenue, as the passage of the Cannabis Act in October 2018 will enable many consumers in this segment to legally purchase cannabis. Consumers aged 25 to 44 Consumers between the ages of 25 and 44 represent the largest and fastestgrowing customer base for marijuana providers in Canada. In addition to representing a dominant share of the total Canadian population, consumers in this market segment are equipped with relatively high levels of disposable income. Moreover, older consumers are more likely to require medical marijuana to treat chronic pain and other ailments. As a result of these factors, this segment is estimated to represent 42.2% of total marijuana expenditure in Canada. This demographic is expected to remain a vital source of demand for marijuana products in coming years, with the total population of individuals in this age category who consumer cannabis at least once per week increasing at an annualized rate of 5.2% to over 900,000 individuals over the five years to 2018. Consumers aged 45 and older In 2018, individuals between the ages of 45 and 64 are expected to account for 24.9% of all marijuana-related sales in Canada, with consumers over the age of 65 representing an additional 3.0% of total cannabis expenditure. While this market segment accounts for a relatively modest share of total marijuana sales, older consumers constitute a disproportionately large share of medical marijuana consumption, as these individuals are most likely to have the discretionary income and physical ailments needed to legally purchase cannabis products in Canada. Moreover, the population of older consumers who consume marijuana at least once per week has increased at a strong annualized rate of 5.0% over the past five years, causing this segment to represent a rising share of total demand for marijuana products. Still, recreational cannabis consumption among the 65 and over population is much lower compared Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 16 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Major Markets continued with other age groups, limiting this segment’s share of industry revenue. International Trade The Cannabis Production industry in Canada does not participate in international trade. As a schedule II drug under the Controlled Drug and Substances Act, medical marijuana cannot legally be transported across Canada’s international borders. Some companies are certified to export medical cannabis products to particular markets such as Europe and Australia, but this trade information is not recorded by Statistics Canada as of the time of this writing. Still, due to myriad public health and regulatory concerns in different countries. exports are limited. According to Health Canada, for the first quarter of fiscal 2018 (March to June), exports of medical cannabis products were less than 750.0 kilograms, comprising a negligible share of total industry output. Nevertheless, strong consumer demand for nonmedical marijuana and existing infrastructure for the transportation of illicit drugs means that a substantial volume of cannabis products is imported and exported from Canada every year. According to data from Statistics Canada, the value of illegal cannabis sales to foreign markets reached an estimated $1.2 billion in 2017, with illegal purchases from abroad representing an additional $317.2 million; however, these figures are excluded from industry-relevant revenue calculations. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 17 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Business Locations 2018 Establishments (%) Less than 5% 5% to less than 20% 20% to less than 40% 40% or more NT YT NU NORTHERN TERRITORIES 0.0 BC 22.6 AB 6.8 SK 3.0 MB 1.5 ON NL QC 0.0 9.0 51.9 NB 2.3 PE NS 0.8 2.3 SOURCE: IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 18 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Products & Markets Distribution of establishments vs. population 60 50 40 30 20 10 Saskatchewan Quebec Ontario Nova Scotia NW Territories Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Establishments Population New Brunswick Manitoba Alberta 0 British Columbia Establishments in the Cannabis Production industry in Canada include all facilities in Canada that are authorized to produce and sell cannabis to eligible persons under the Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations and will include licensed producers of recreational cannabis when that data becomes available. The number of industry establishments has experienced dramatic growth since the Canadian government first began issuing production licences to private vendors in 2013, and these establishments are largely concentrated in the nation’s most heavily populated regions. For instance, Ontario is expected to account for 38.7% of the total Canadian population in 2018, as well as a substantial 51.9% of all industry facilities. Moreover, Ontario is expected to continue playing a major role within the industry in coming years, as the Ontario government has made plans to open 80 cannabis stores by 2019 and 150 stores by 2020, after the passage and enactment of the Cannabis Act in 2018. The distribution of industry establishments is also subject to provincespecific regulations, as provinces and territories are primarily responsible for overseeing the distribution and sale of cannabis products in their region. Additionally, under the Cannabis Act, provincial governments can increase the % Business Locations SOURCE: IBISWORLD minimum age in their region, lower the possession limit, restrict where adults are able to consume cannabis and create additional rules for growing cannabis at home. As a result of this flexibility, industry establishments are largely concentrated in regions with relatively lax regulations and substantial public support, such as British Columbia. In 2018, British Columbia represents the second-most popular destination for licensed producers in Canada, accounting for an estimated 22.6% of industry establishments. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 19 Competitive Landscape Market Share Concentration | Key Success Factors | Cost Structure Benchmarks Basis of Competition | Barriers to Entry | Industry Globalization Market Share Concentration Level Concentration in this industry is M edium Key Success Factors IBISWorld identifies 250 Key Success Factors for a business. The most important for this industry are: Cost Structure Benchmarks As a nascent and rapidly expanding industry, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada is currently characterized by a moderate to high degree of market share concentration, though the industry is expected to become increasingly fragmented in coming years as new enterprises continue to enter the market in droves. Overall, five of the industry’s largest players are estimated to account for a substantial 56.2% of the industry’s total revenue in 2018. However, the competitive market for medical marijuana production was only recently established in late 2013 and the recreational market was only opened in October 2018, leaving room to grow. Therefore, the dominance of major players, such as Aurora Cannabis Inc. and Canopy Growth Corp., is largely the result of these companies being among the first providers to enter the market, replete with the agricultural and distribution infrastructure necessary for capturing market share. Over the five years to 2023, the number of companies operating in this market is forecast to grow, causing the industry to become increasingly competitive and limiting the ability of existing major players to retain market share. Understanding government policies and their implications Marijuana legislation is complicated at all levels of the government. Successful operators must be able to navigate the regulatory landscape at both the provincial and federal level. Marketing of differentiated products Dispensaries must properly promote their products given the differentiated nature of edible cannabis products. Development of effective marijuana strains Growers that can develop the most potent and effective strains can potentially attract greater demand for their products. The following discussion segments the cost structure of an average industry operator. However, there are crucial disparities between different aspects of industry operations that are not captured by these averages. Ultimately, retail operations are much smaller in scale and scope compared with the more centralized world of cultivation, producing a chasm between the expenditures of these operations, chiefly in the areas of profit and capital outlays. Retail operations, if divorced from Fast adjustments to changing regulations Regulations are constantly changing. Growers must comply with the latest legislation or endure fines and arrest, and they must be able to adjust to changing regulation quickly and smoothly. production capabilities, are often profitable while enterprises focused on cultivation are primarily unprofitable as they develop the necessary infrastructure for future returns on investment. As an industry in its nascent stages, these extremes are expected to persist until the industry establishes itself in the broader domestic economy. Profit Profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, varies greatly across Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 20 Competitive Landscape industry operators, largely due to the wide variety of province-specific laws governing the production of marijuana in Canada and the novelty of the recreational cannabis market. Overall, the industry has recorded substantially negative profit margins in recent years, as the market for independent medical marijuana providers was only formed in late 2013 and the recreational market was formed in October 2018, causing industry operators to experience significant initial capital outlays associated with establishing the industry’s infrastructure. In 2018, the industry is expected to record industry-relevant profit margins of -20.0%, though industry profitability is projected to improve in coming years as operators in this nascent industry begin to benefit from economies of scale, greater purchasing power and other operating efficiencies that are common in more mature industries. Wages Wage costs are estimated to represent 37.4% of industry revenue in 2018, down from 38.9% in 2013. Most marijuana dispensaries are small-scale, localized businesses that depend on employees for services, resulting in high labour costs as a share of revenue. Additionally, the market for medical marijuana has expanded from a single governmentsponsored provider in early 2013, to more than 100 enterprises in 2018. This expansion has coincided with an influx of new workers in the industry, boosting the share of industry revenue dedicated to labour-related costs. However, the production of cannabis can be more labour intensive as companies hire highly paid researchers to develop innovative Sector vs. Industry Costs Average Costs of all Industries in sector (2018) 100 80 Industry Costs (2018) -20.0 11.9 37.4 11.5 22.8 Percentage of revenue Cost Structure Benchmarks continued n Profit n Wages n Purchases n Depreciation n Marketing n Rent & Utilities n Other 60 45.2 23.9 40 20 6.7 5.3 17.7 0 10.0 1.7 18.9 7.0 SOURCE: IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 21 Competitive Landscape Cost Structure Benchmarks continued and higher quality products, offset slightly by less highly paid harvesters and manual labourers. Moving forward, wages are projected to decline as a share of industry revenue, as operators seek to limit unnecessary wage costs by investing in online platforms, automated inventory systems and other technologies that limit the industry’s reliance on labour inputs. Purchases Purchases make up a significant expense for medical marijuana providers. The primary goods purchased by growing facilities include soil, fertilizer and seeds, while common purchases made by dispensaries include storage equipment, medical marijuana accessories and other products that do not contain marijuana. In particular, medical marijuana stores need to purchase specialty lighting, airtight containers and cases, air conditioning and other equipment needed to store marijuana. Additionally, stores retail pipes, vaporizers, lighters and other products used to consume medical marijuana. Industry operators may also purchase and retail edible products that include medical and/or recreational marijuana. Collectively, purchase costs are expected to account for 22.8% of the industry’s total revenue. Rent and utilities Expenses on rent and utilities can vary considerably according to the size and location of a particular facility. Industry dispensaries are generally located in easily accessible commercial areas to attract consumers. However, expensive real estate markets in major cities and other highly commercial locations may cause small retailers to rent their premises instead of owning them outright. For these operators, rent and utilities account for a relatively large proportion of revenue as they experience the added cost of monthly rent. In contrast, rent and utilities often represent a relatively small cost for independently owned stores located in rural areas. Industry operators also incur significant costs associated with warehouses and facilities for manufacturing edible products. In 2018, expenses on rent and utilities are estimated to account for 18.9% of the industry’s total revenue. Other Most medium- to large-scale operators use technology and capital to minimize wage costs and improve labour productivity. Importantly, retail operations have a lower level of requisite capital spending compared with cultivation businesses, limiting their depreciation levels in turn. Cannabis production operations require extensive irrigation networks, processing machinery and in some cases, hydroponic systems alongside temperaturecontrolled units for curing and drying, contributing to much higher capital outlays for these establishments. In 2018, the depreciation of these capital assets is estimated to account for an additional 23.9% of total industry revenue. Similarly, expenses on marketing are expected to represent a substantial 10.0% of the industry’s total revenue, though these costs are expected to decline as a share of industry revenue in coming years, as upcoming legislation and shifting public opinion lessens the need for certain advertising and marketing efforts. Other costs include liability insurance, security costs, legal fees, transportation costs, research and development expenditures and other administration expenses. Collectively, these miscellaneous costs are expected to account for the remaining 7.0% of industry revenue. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 22 Competitive Landscape Basis of Competition Level & Trend ompetition C in this industry is Highand the trend is I ncreasing Barriers to Entry Level & Trend arriers to Entry B in this industry are H ighand Decreasing Internal competition Industry competition is largely waged based on product price and quality. Marijuana can have diverse properties and qualities, and only dispensaries that can consistently provide high-quality marijuana will attract demand from consumers in the recreational and medical markets. Additionally, dispensaries must be able to provide competitive prices. Customers can purchase marijuana from a wide range of dispensaries, making it easy to only acquire products from the lowest-priced dispensaries. As a result, it is important that dispensaries use promotional efforts to attract new customers. Though smokable indica cannabis products and smokable sativa cannabis products lack significant differentiation, there is a great degree of differentiation in the edible cannabis products segment. Edibles can take the form of food, extracts and oils and range from marijuana-infused mints, candies, baked goods and beverages, among many other products. Indeed, a whole field of cannabis-infused culinary cooking has emerged in recent years with the legalization of medical marijuana and the subsequent advances in cannabis oil extraction methods. It is important that industry operators have access to the Regulation While it is legal for licensed companies to produce and distribute marijuana products in Canada, companies looking to receive a licence must navigate a variety of legal issues before beginning operation, which can be extremely cumbersome, especially for those that target the medicinal marijuana market. For example, applications under the Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations often require strict background checks to ensure that applicants are not affiliated with newest products and are able to source popular items at competitive prices. External competition The largest source of external competition for the industry comes from the illegal production of marijuana products within Canada. According to data from Statistics Canada, individuals in Canada consumed an estimated 773.0 metric tonnes of cannabis in 2017, with licensed, legal cannabis accounting for just 56.5 tonnes (7.0%) of this total. Given the lack of regulatory oversight that comes with illicit drug production, illegal cannabis products are often less expensive than their legal counterparts; however, these products are rarely subject to safety and quality standards. While recreational marijuana use has been legalized, the illicit market is expected to capture a substantial portion of marijuana demand until the prices of legal products come down as suppliers boost inventories and harvest capabilities to meet skyrocketing demand. Producers that target the medical market also experience competition from pharmaceutical companies that manufacture drugs to treat chronic pain, cancer, HIV and other illnesses that medical marijuana helps relieve. Barriers to Entry checklist Competition Concentration Life Cycle Stage Capital Intensity Technology Change Regulation and Policy Industry Assistance High Medium Growth High Medium Heavy Medium SOURCE: IBISWORLD organized crime or other black-market operations. As of October 2018, Health Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 23 Competitive Landscape Barriers to Entry continued Industry Globalization Level & Trend lobalization G in this industry is Lowand the trend is I ncreasing Canada had approved just 132 of the more than 300 applications it had received for licences to produce medical marijuana, acting as a substantial barrier to entry for potential entrants. At the same time, the rate of rejection varies considerably by province; as of October 2018, Ontario approved an estimated one-third of all licence applications, while British Columbia has accepted under one-fifth of all applications. Capital requirements Though marijuana stores generally experience limited capital costs due to the relatively low-tech nature of industry operations, companies are often constrained by an inability to obtain financing from traditional sources, although legalization is expected to bolster financing efforts. To open a dispensary, operators must acquire a location, hire employees, purchase inventory and buy advertising, in addition to satisfying various industryspecific government regulations. However, while retail operations are much less capital intensive, cultivation and processing facilities require much more upfront and continuing investment. Even as legalization makes financing easier to secure, the novelty of the recreational market and the uncertain outlook for its potential may discourage lending from major institutions in the near term. As economically viable operators enter the fray and establish a concrete footing, this obstacle is expected to diminish. Still, fledgling enterprises that strive to compete with incumbents may struggle to dole out the resources necessary to build the vast production facilities and the economies of scale that benefit established operators, pressuring industry participation. Still, since demand is expected to grow rapidly in upcoming years, the effect of this barrier may be less cumbersome. While the possession and consumption of cannabis for medical purposes is legal in Canada, as well as the majority of states in the United States, medical marijuana cannot be traded internationally. Additionally, legal producers operating in Canada must be licensed and meet strict requirements imposed by the Canadian government, limiting the participation of foreign-owned entities in the domestic market. Consequently, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada has historically been characterized by a low level of globalization. However, the October 2018 legalization of recreational cannabis is expected to support globalization efforts. Since there are only two countries in the world that have legalized recreational cannabis, the production of marijuana for consumption outside of medical purposes is largely concentrated in these regions. As a result, if other countries begin to implement recreational cannabis legalization legislation, the domestic industry will be well positioned to satisfy international demand. Even without recreational demand, the industry’s major players have secured global supply chains to satisfy demand in different regions of the world with unique medical marijuana regulatory frameworks. For example, Aurora Cannabis has finished the construction of one production plant in Denmark and is underway on a second to accelerate the company’s European footprint. The company transported a shipment of mother plants that should populate the first facility in August 2018, signalling a strong globalization effort. Similarly, Canopy Growth, another industry leader, has production and processing facilities in Europe, South America, Africa, Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in Canada November 2018 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA 24 Competitive Landscape Industry Globalization continued Australia and North America, serving the medicinal cannabis markets in these regions and the recreational market in Uruguay, the only other country to legalize recreational consumption, through its operations in Santiago, Chile. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 25 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Major Companies Aurora Cannabis Inc. | Canopy Growth Corporation Aphria Inc. | Other Companies Major Players (Market Share) Canopy Growth Corporation 16.1% 48.8% Other Aphria Inc. 9.2% Player Performance Aurora Cannabis Inc. Market Share: 25.9% Aurora Cannabis Inc. 25.9% Headquartered in Vancouver, Aurora Cannabis Inc. (Aurora) participates in the Cannabis Production industry in Canada through its wholly owned subsidiary Aurora Cannabis Enterprises Inc., which has been licensed to cultivate, produce and sell medical marijuana products since February 2015. Aurora cultivates its plants in 11 production facilities worldwide that boast a combined funded capacity of over 500.0 thousand kilograms a year globally. Nine of these facilities are located in Canada while the company’s two international facilities are in Denmark. The company’s largest domestic facilities include Aurora Sun in Alberta, MedReleaf Exeter in Ontario and Aurora Sky in Alberta with a production capacity of 150,000.0, 105,000.0 and 100,000.0 kilograms respectively as of 2018. Financial performance While the company is relatively new, it has expanded through a robust acquisition- SOURCE: IBISWORLD focused strategy which has catapulted it into the upper echelon of domestic cannabis production. Between 2017 and 2018 alone, Aurora acquired 11 companies including Hemp Co, Urban Cultivator, Agropro and previous major players CanniMed and MedReleaf. Alongside strong acquisitive tendencies, the company has focused on expanding its markets with sales and operations across five continents, with a heavy emphasis on the burgeoning European market. Bereft of major players in Europe and supported by the 2017 implementation of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the European Union, Aurora is positioning itself to become a dominant player in this lucrative medical cannabis market. Moreover, if these countries eventually legalize recreational marijuana as well, Aurora will be equipped with the infrastructure to serve this enormous market. Still, as of the company’s 2018 Aurora Cannabis Inc. (industry-relevant operations) - financial performance* Year** Revenue ($ million) (% change) Operating profit ($ million) (% change) 2015 1.4 N/C -4.6 N/C 2016 18.1 1,192.9 -11.4 147.8 2017 53.7 196.7 -95.8 740.4 2018 237.4 342.1 -396.9 314.3 *Estimates; **Year-end June SOURCE: ANNUAL REPORT AND IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 26 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Major Companies Player Performance continued annual report, Aurora does not have significant operations in the United States, which can be a target for future acquisition activity. Amid the ongoing influx of new products and the rapid development of production facilities, Aurora has begun innovating and branding its products, including the recent release of Aurora Frost, a highly concentrated THC product that is designed to be consumed along with medical cannabis or baked into food. Aurora currently serves as the dominant player in this industry, wellpositioned to target the newfound domestic recreational market. Overall, the company is expected to record industry-relevant revenue of $237.4 million in 2018. At the same time, Aurora has struggled in recent years to become profitable, with the company recording substantially negative profit margins every year since its formation as it focuses on infrastructure development and acquisitions to position itself for future returns. Player Performance Headquartered in Smith Falls, ON, Canopy Growth Corporation (Canopy Growth) became one of the first companies to operate in the Cannabis Production industry in Canada when the company’s subsidiary, Tweed Inc., received a licence to cultivate, produce and sell medical marijuana in November 2013. Since then, Canopy Growth has become one of the industry’s early leaders, with the company going on to become the first cannabis company in North America to be publicly traded in April 2014. The company sells a wide variety of popular cannabis brands, including the company’s Tweed and Spectrum Cannabis brands, as well as products from Bedrocan Canada and Leafs By Snoop, a brand of cannabis products released by the artist Snoop Dogg. The company has an international footprint that spans 24 locations in North America, Europe, South America, Africa and Australia. However, the company primarily relies on production and cultivation operations domestically, using these various locations as distribution networks worldwide. Accordingly, the company’s revenue is primarily derived from its domestic operations, making the majority of its activity relevant to the domestic industry. Canopy Growth Corporation Market Share: 16.1% Canopy Growth Corporation (industry-relevant operations) - financial performance* Year** Revenue ($ million) (% change) Operating profit ($ million) (% change) 2014 2.4 N/C -8.2 N/C 2015 12.7 429.2 -2.7 -67.1 2016 39.9 214.2 -14.1 422.2 2017 77.9 95.2 -82.3 483.7 2018 147.7 89.6 -138.6 68.4 *Estimates; **Year-end May Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 SOURCE: ANNUAL REPORT AND IBISWORLD Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 27 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Major Companies Player Performance continued Financial performance Outside of organic growth, Canopy Growth has pursued a series of acquisitions in recent years, including the purchase of Vert Medical Inc. and the acquisition of a controlling interest in Groupe H.E.M.P.CA Inc. in November 2016. In 2017, Canopy Growth acquired Mettrum Health Corporation then purchased a former Hershey’s chocolate factory for marijuana cultivation, resulting in a total of eight licensed facilities in Canada as of 2018. These acquisitions have been accompanied by substantial revenue growth, including projected growth of 89.6% in 2018 alone. Overall, the company is estimated to generate $147.7 million in industry-relevant revenue in 2018. Player Performance Based in Toronto, Aphria Inc. (Aphria) participates in the industry through its subsidiary Pure Nature Wellness (PNW), which received its licence to produce and sell medical marijuana in November 2014, followed by a licence to sell cannabis extracts in November 2016. Aphria’s cannabis products are exclusively grown in greenhouses, with the company’s growing operations based in a PNW greenhouse facility in Leamington, ON. Online orders represent Aphria’s primary source of revenue, though the company also generates sales through telephone orders and wholesale shipments to other licensed producers in Canada. Outside of organic growth, Aphria has made several large-scale acquisitions in recent years, including the $6.2 million purchase of 80.9 hectares (200.0 acres) of additional greenhouse space to supplement its existing facility, as well as the acquisition of a 16.6% stake in Canabo Medical Inc., which operates a series of referral-only clinics for medical cannabis. In 2018, Aphria acquired Broken Coast Cannabis and Nuuvera, two cannabis production companies in Vancouver and Bramption, respectively, to augment its position in the recreational and medical cannabis market. More recently, the company has focused on a US acquisition strategy, although this activity is not relevant to the industry. Ultimately, the company has grown due to a litany of distribution agreements. For example, in 2017, Aphria captured the Aphria Inc. Market Share: 9.2% Financial performance Due to strong demand, Aphria doubled the size of its greenhouse in 2016, paving the way for strong expansionary potential. Aphria Inc. (industry-relevant operations) - financial performance* Year** Revenue ($ million) (% change) Operating profit ($ million) 2014 2015 0.6 N/C -3.4 N/C 8.4 1,300.0 -1.1 -67.6 2016 20.4 142.9 2.6 N/C 2017 34.6 69.6 -6.0 N/C 2018 84.7 144.8 -6.3 5.0 (% change) *Estimates; **Year-end May SOURCE: ANNUAL REPORT AND IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 28 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Major Companies Player Performance continued attention of Shoppers Drug Mart, a leader in the domestic pharmacy industry (IBISWorld report 44611CA), leading to an online distribution platform for its products. Further, in 2018, the company secured a distribution deal with Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits to disseminate recreational cannabis products domestically. In line with industry trends, Aphria has experienced substantial growth since its formation, and the company is projected to record industry-relevant revenue of $84.7 million in 2018. Other Companies The Cannabis Production industry in Canada is relatively new, beginning in 2001 with only one licensed player for the production of medical cannabis. Additional enterprises were permitted to join the fray in 2013, which has prompted a robust expansion since then. Furthermore, the October 2018 legalization of recreational cannabis consumption has opened the floodgates to a litany of producers that are hoping to capture market share in this burgeoning marketplace. While there is a projected influx of new producers and processors, the industry remains concentrated among established players that have the infrastructure to cater to both the medical and recreational markets. Plus, recreational cannabis growers must also be licensed by Health Canada and even with a licence, the time between cultivation, harvest and processing produces a lag in the realization of revenue, which further entrenches the dominance of incumbents that have these systems in place. Still, the legalization of recreational consumption has opened the doors for microgrowers and processors which should encourage industry participation, although attaining a market share to rival the major players is not likely in the short run. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 29 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Operating Conditions Capital Intensity | Technology & Systems | Revenue Volatility Regulation & Policy | Industry Assistance Capital Intensity Level The level of capital intensity is H igh This industry is characterized by a high degree of capital intensity, with the typical industry operator allocating an estimated $0.71 to capital investments for every $1.00 spent on labour inputs in 2018. Common capital expenditures for dispensaries include the purchase of in-store machinery, such as point-of-sale systems, cash registers and bar code scanners. These expenses also include investment in computers, software, inventory control systems and fixtures and fittings to improve the overall ambience of stores. More specific to industry services, operators must invest in temperature and humidity control systems to ensure that they are able to maintain the quality of their stock. Perhaps most importantly, industry Capital Intensity Capital units per labour unit 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Economy Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Cannabis Production Dotted line shows a high level of capital intensity SOURCE: IBISWORLD operators must invest heavily in security equipment, such as video cameras and alarm systems. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 30 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Operating Conditions Capital Intensity continued However, these investments pale in comparison with the capital outlays of cannabis cultivation and processing operations, which require more machinery and constant monitoring. Growing methods range from relatively less expensive outdoor growing to indoor greenhouse operations and hydroponic systems which require a more substantial upfront and ongoing investment. Outlays for irrigation systems, temperature control systems, automated feeding networks and other monitoring equipment can be quite costly, particularly for a fledgling enterprise which, since the industry is in its infancy, accounts for a significant share of total industry operations. For processors, machinery to extract cannabis oil are also sizable expenditures and the consistent quality assurance requirements to cure and dry plants can be cumbersome relative to revenue as these enterprises begin to establish themselves. Collectively, these various capital outlays account for a significant share of the industry’s total expenses since these cultivation and processing facilities represent the lion’s share of industry operations. Moreover, many employees in this industry are hired on a part-time basis, which limits labourrelated expenditures thereby contributing to high levels of capital intensity. Moving forward, the degree of capital intensity within this industry is expected to decline, as operators will no longer incur many of the initial costs associated with a new industry, such as building infrastructure and establishing supply chains. Technology and Systems While the basic methods for growing and processing marijuana plants have not changed substantially over the past decade, recent shifts in the legal and cultural status of marijuana in Canada have encouraged significant innovation in the development and marketing of cannabis-related products and derivatives. For instance, edible cannabis products represent one of the industry’s fastest-growing segments, and these products include marijuanainfused candies, baked goods and beverages, among other products, instigating demand for cannabis oils and concentrates. With countless new edible marijuana products coming onto the market, the nature of industry products is changing rapidly, with a concomitant shift in the processing strategies employed by industry operators. Extracting cannabidiol (CBD), an active ingredient derived from hemp, is a lucrative enterprise for most medical marijuana product developers and increasingly, consumer beverage manufacturers. CBS has numerous health benefits without the mental impairment and euphoria of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), which is the principal psychoactive constituent in cannabis plants, making it a viable option for medical purposes and consumer products in situations where being under the influence may be unsuitable. CBD oil is currently extracted in many ways, chief among them being carbon dioxide extraction techniques where pressurized carbon dioxide and extremely low temperatures help to isolate, preserve and maintain the quality of CBD oil. Other processes include using ethanol, which is ideal for vaporizer pen cartridges, and olive oil, although this method is primarily reserved for edibles manufacturers. Increased access to legal marijuana has also improved the quality of cannabis products. Improvement in quality is generally measured by the level of THC. Improved cultivation Level The level of technology change is M edium Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 31 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Operating Conditions Technology and Systems continued techniques range from the use of more nutrient-rich soils to more efficient drying techniques, which have enabled growers to harvest both larger and stronger yields. According to the latest data available provided by the University of Mississippi’s Potency Monitoring Project, marijuana that was analyzed in 2007 had a THC level of 9.6%, the highest level since analysts began tracking this data in 1976. In contrast, the process of cultivating marijuana plants typically experiences a low level of technology change. Outdoor growers generally follow standard cultivation techniques used by other outdoor farmers, while indoor cannabis growers require basic supplies such as containers, lighting and humidity control. Growers can also use hydroponic techniques, which have experienced notable technology change over the past five years, although these developments are external to the industry. Hydroponic techniques involve growing marijuana plants in water. Growers require water filters, pumps, growing trays and humidity control. Many industry operators also cultivate new marijuana strains, which involves finding plants with desirable characteristics then artificially fertilizing plants, making the accrual intellectual property rights a significant enterprise. Revenue Volatility The Cannabis Production industry in Canada is characterized by a very high degree of revenue volatility. The current industry of medical marijuana providers was only recently formed in late 2013, when Health Canada first began issuing licences to Canadian companies other than the one legally licensed producer since 2001 to produce and distribute cannabis to individuals holding a medical prescription. As a result of the industry’s low revenue base and mounting consumer demand, industry revenue has surged over the past five years, with year-to-year revenue growth ranging from explosive growth of 139.9% in 2016 to relatively modest growth of 69.1% in 2017. Changes in the regulatory landscape serve as the most important driver of revenue fluctuations, including the passage of the Cannabis Act in October 2018, which is expected to double industry revenue that year, further compounding the volatility of the current period. Additionally, demand for medical marijuana has expanded rapidly over the past five years, largely due to shifting cultural attitudes toward marijuana, an introduction of new producers and the growing acceptance of medical marijuana in treating or alleviating symptoms in a variety of medical conditions, including cancer and Alzheimer’s disease. At the same time, consumers who use medical marijuana do so because of medical needs; as a result, most use industry products regardless of the performance of the economy. In addition, the aging population has led to an increase in demand for a variety of medical services and treatments, because senior citizens consume a disproportionately large number of pharmaceuticals relative to the rest of the population. This loyal and stable base of consumers somewhat limits fluctuations in industry revenue growth in the long run. Nevertheless, the industry is projected to remain highly volatile in coming years due to its novelty as players establish their operations. Level The level of volatility is V ery High Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 32 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Operating Conditions Revenue Volatility continued Regulation and Policy Level & Trend he level of T Regulation is H eavy and the trend is Decreasing Overall, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada is subject to a high degree of regulation from government bodies. The possession and consumption of cannabis for medical purposes was first legalized in Canada in 2001. Under new regulations, individuals with a medical prescription were permitted to grow a small amount of their own cannabis or purchase cannabis from a single Health Canada-affiliated producer. In 2013, the Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations (MMPR) were enacted in Canada, expanding legal access to marijuana for medical purposes. Under this law, Health Canada began issuing licences to Canadian companies to produce and distribute dried marijuana flower to individuals holding a medical prescription, though these private companies were required to comply with strict regulations at the federal, provincial and municipal levels. At the same time, these 2013 provisions meant that licences for patients to grow their own medical marijuana were no longer being issued. Since then, multiple court decisions have caused the Canadian government to redefine and loosen restrictions on medical marijuana sales. For instance, according to the 2015 ruling by the Supreme Court of Canada in R v. Smith, restricting access to legal medical marijuana to include only dried marijuana products is unconstitutional. Additionally, the Federal Court of Canada’s 2016 decision in Allard v. Canada found that requiring individuals to obtain marijuana from licensed producers violated liberty and security rights protected by section 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. As a result of these legal challenges, the MMPR was replaced by the Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulation (ACMPR) in August 2016. This regulation included new legislation to satisfy recent court decisions; for example, the ACMPR established provisions for individuals to produce a limited amount of cannabis for their own medical purposes. Under the ACMPR, Health Canada has continued to accept applications from companies seeking to become licensed cannabis producers. Furthermore, all licences and security clearances granted under the MMPR have continued under the ACMPR, meaning the nation’s licensed producers have continued to supply clients with medical cannabis. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 33 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Operating Conditions Regulation and Policy continued Legalization In April 2017, a bill to legalize cannabis was introduced in the Canadian Parliament which was implemented in October 2018. The legislation creates a regulatory framework for the production, distribution, sale and possession of cannabis domestically, limiting persons 18 years and older to the possession of 30.0 grams of dried or equivalent nondried cannabis in public. Also, each household can cultivate up to four cannabis plants from licensed seeds, although this aspect of the law is not upheld in Quebec and Manitoba. Plus, cannabis-infused drinks are legal as well, instigating demand for cannabis oils and other derivatives, with some limitations. Under the act, provinces and territories would be primarily responsible for overseeing the distribution and sale of cannabis products in their region. For example, provincial governments are able to increase the minimum age in their region, lower the possession limit, restrict where adults are able to consume cannabis and create additional rules for growing cannabis at home. Industry Assistance Government regulations Health Canada legalized the use of medical cannabis in 2001, dictating its production and centralizing industrial output in just one company, Prairie Plant Systems until 2013. At this point, other applications for the cultivation of medical marijuana were accepted by Health Canada, although the majority of these applications are rejected for various reasons. All other medical marijuana was either imported or grown by individuals with a licence to do so. In this way, Health Canada has a longstanding role in the medical marijuana segment as a protector of domestic operators. More recently, recreational cannabis use became legal on October 17, 2018. Health Canada, under the federal Cannabis Act, made the nation the second country in the world to formally legalize marijuana use as opposed to simply decriminalization. The legislation has precise stipulations for the retail of cannabis which is a form of assistance for operators that can gain government contracts. Each province has its own retail framework, often controlled under provincial liquor control boards. For example, Ontario’s Liquor Control Board set up a crown corporation subsidiary, the Ontario Cannabis Retail Corporation, to operate as the sole legal retailer of recreational cannabis in the province. Thus, while the cultivation and distribution of cannabis is relatively free of direct government assistance, retail sales for recreational consumption are almost entirely reliant on government retail contracts. Level & Trend he level of Industry T Assistance is Mediumand the trend is I ncreasing Industry associations Similar to more conventional industries, the Cannabis Production industry in Canada is also supported by various trade associations. For instance, in April 2018, the Cannabis Canada Association, the Canadian Medical Cannabis Council and the Canopy Growth Corporation combined to form the Cannabis Canada Council (C3), which currently serves as a national trade association for all licensed cannabis producers operating under Health Canada’s Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations. C3’s mission is largely focused on promoting the economic growth of cannabis producers, disseminating information on safe cannabis use and developing industry-wide standards relating to the production, marketing and distribution of cannabis products. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Key Statistics Industry Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Industry Value Added ($m) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 8.7 18.1 48.2 112.6 178.0 378.8 635.1 974.3 1,460.9 2,144.3 3,129.4 Establishments 1 1 1 1 6 23 27 37 84 133 226 321 459 628 905 Enterprises Employment Exports 1 55 -1 60 -1 66 -1 76 -6 1,100 -23 1,383 -26 1,590 -36 2,126 -76 3,664 -120 6,959 -204 11,758 -292 17,594 -420 25,991 -579 37,297 -836 54,386 -- Revenue (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,064.7 127.8 137.5 139.9 69.1 111.0 68.4 54.5 51.0 48.0 46.9 Industry Value Added (%) 0.0 0.0 14.3 987.5 108.0 166.3 133.6 58.1 112.8 67.7 53.4 49.9 46.8 45.9 Establishments (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 500.0 283.3 17.4 37.0 127.0 58.3 69.9 42.0 43.0 36.8 44.1 Enterprises Employment Exports (%) (%) (%) 0.0 9.1 N/A 0.0 10.0 N/A 0.0 15.2 N/A 500.0 1,347.4 N/A 283.3 25.7 N/A 13.0 15.0 N/A 38.5 33.7 N/A 111.1 72.3 N/A 57.9 89.9 N/A 70.0 69.0 N/A 43.1 49.6 N/A 43.8 47.7 N/A 37.9 43.5 N/A 44.4 45.8 N/A IVA/Revenue (%) 41.18 41.18 41.18 47.06 43.94 40.13 45.00 43.83 40.98 41.33 41.16 40.86 40.57 40.23 39.96 Imports/ Demand (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Revenue ($m) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 19.8 45.1 107.1 256.9 434.4 916.6 1,543.1 2,384.7 3,600.6 5,330.4 7,832.2 Annual Change 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Key Ratios 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Exports/ Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Revenue per Employee ($’000) 30.91 28.33 25.76 22.37 18.00 32.61 67.36 120.84 118.56 131.71 131.24 135.54 138.53 142.92 144.01 Imports ---------------- Wages ($m) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 7.7 18.1 43.9 103.1 172.9 342.9 578.5 877.0 1,306.9 1,899.2 2,777.9 Domestic Demand N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Per capita disposable income ($) 29,846.5 30,138.3 29,929.6 30,301.3 30,916.9 31,411.6 32,308.7 32,558.3 33,037.2 33,799.5 34,449.6 35,218.9 36,080.0 37,002.8 38,026.5 Imports (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Wages (%) 0.0 0.0 16.7 1,000.0 135.1 142.5 134.9 67.7 98.3 68.7 51.6 49.0 45.3 46.3 Domestic Demand (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Per capita disposable income (%) 1.0 -0.7 1.2 2.0 1.6 2.9 0.8 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 Wages/Revenue (%) 35.29 35.29 35.29 41.18 38.89 40.13 40.99 40.13 39.80 37.41 37.49 36.78 36.30 35.63 35.47 Employees per Est. 55.00 60.00 66.00 76.00 183.33 60.13 58.89 57.46 43.62 52.32 52.03 54.81 56.63 59.39 60.10 Figures are in inflation-adjusted 2018 dollars. Average Wage ($) 10,909.09 10,000.00 9,090.91 9,210.53 7,000.00 13,087.49 27,610.06 48,494.83 47,188.86 49,274.32 49,200.54 49,846.54 50,282.79 50,920.99 51,077.48 Share of the Economy (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 SOURCE: IBISWORLD Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 Cannabis Production in CanadaNovember 2018 35 WWW.IBISWORLD.CA Jargon & Glossary Industry Jargon IBISWorld Glossary CANNABISThe plant from which medical marijuana is harvested. EDIBLESEdible cannabis products, often in the form of baked goods or candies. DISPENSARYDesignated medical marijuana retail stores. JOINTA rolled cigarette containing dried marijuana, often hand-rolled by the consumer. BARRIERS TO ENTRYHigh barriers to entry mean that new companies struggle to enter an industry, while low barriers mean it is easy for new companies to enter an industry. INDUSTRY REVENUEThe total sales of industry goods and services (exclusive of excise and sales tax); subsidies on production; all other operating income from outside the firm (such as commission income, repair and service income, and rent, leasing and hiring income); and capital work done by rental or lease. Receipts from interest royalties, dividends and the sale of fixed tangible assets are excluded. CAPITAL INTENSITYCompares the amount of money spent on capital (plant, machinery and equipment) with that spent on labour. IBISWorld uses the ratio of depreciation to wages as a proxy for capital intensity. High capital intensity is more than $0.333 of capital to $1 of labour; medium is $0.125 to $0.333 of capital to $1 of labour; low is less than $0.125 of capital for every $1 of labour. CONSTANT PRICESThe dollar figures in the Key Statistics table, including forecasts, are adjusted for inflation using the current year (i.e. year published) as the base year. This removes the impact of changes in the purchasing power of the dollar, leaving only the “real” growth or decline in industry metrics. The inflation adjustments in IBISWorld’s reports are made using Statistics Canada’s implicit GDP price deflator. DOMESTIC DEMANDSpending on industry goods and services within Canada, regardless of their country of origin. It is derived by adding imports to industry revenue, and then subtracting exports. EMPLOYMENTThe number of permanent, part-time, temporary and casual employees, working proprietors, partners, managers and executives within the industry. ENTERPRISEA division that is separately managed and keeps management accounts. Each enterprise consists of one or more establishments that are under common ownership or control. ESTABLISHMENTThe smallest type of accounting unit within an enterprise, an establishment is a single physical location where business is conducted or where services or industrial operations are performed. Multiple establishments under common control make up an enterprise. EXPORTSTotal value of industry goods and services sold by Canadian companies to customers abroad. IMPORTSTotal value of industry goods and services brought in from foreign countries to be sold in Canada. INDUSTRY CONCENTRATIONAn indicator of the dominance of the top four players in an industry. Concentration is considered high if the top players account for more than 70% of industry revenue. Medium is 40% to 70% of industry revenue. Low is less than 40%. INDUSTRY VALUE ADDEDThe market value of goods and services produced by the industry minus the cost of goods and services used in production. IVA is also described as the industry’s contribution to GDP, or profit plus wages and depreciation. INTERNATIONAL TRADEThe level of international trade is determined by ratios of exports to revenue and imports to domestic demand. For exports/revenue: low is less than 5%; medium is 5% to 20%; and high is more than 20%. Imports/domestic demand: low is less than 5%; medium is 5% to 35%; and high is more than 35%. LIFE CYCLEAll industries go through periods of growth, maturity and decline. IBISWorld determines an industry’s life cycle by considering its growth rate (measured by IVA) compared with GDP; the growth rate of the number of establishments; the amount of change the industry’s products are undergoing; the rate of technological change; and the level of customer acceptance of industry products and services. NONEMPLOYING ESTABLISHMENTBusinesses with no paid employment or payroll, also known as nonemployers. These are mostly set up by self-employed individuals. PROFITIBISWorld uses earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) as an indicator of a company’s profitability. It is calculated as revenue minus expenses, excluding interest and tax. VOLATILITYThe level of volatility is determined by averaging the absolute change in revenue in each of the past five years. Volatility levels: very high is more than ±20%; high volatility is ±10% to ±20%; moderate volatility is ±3% to ±10%; and low volatility is less than ±3%. WAGESThe gross total wages and salaries of all employees in the industry. Benefits and on-costs are included in this figure. Provided to: University of Alberta (2133882029) | 08 September 2019 www.ibisworld.ca | 1-800-330-3772 | info @ibisworld.ca At IBISWorld we know that industry intelligence is more than assembling facts It is combining data with analysis to answer the questions that successful businesses ask Identify high growth, emerging & shrinking markets Arm yourself with the latest industry intelligence Assess competitive threats from existing & new entrants Benchmark your performance against the competition Make speedy market-ready, profit-maximizing decisions Who is IBISWorld? We are strategists, analysts, researchers, and marketers. We provide answers to information-hungry, time-poor businesses. 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