20/01/2020 INTRODUCTION RIGODON SESSION 1 GROUPING 1 2 IN LINEAR THINKING LET’S LOOK AT THE FOREST FROM MICRO TO MACRO WE BLAME LIMITED RESOURCES, DOWNPLAY OUR FAILURES, AND VIEW OTHERS IN A NEGATIVE LIGHT (SISIHAN). 3 SOME SOLUTIONS ARE OBVIOUS AND EFFECTIVE IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES IN THE LONG TERM: MAKING THINGS WORSE. 4 1 20/01/2020 WE TEND TO identify a problem as one isolated occurrence, RATHER THAN identify and solve patterns of problems IN THE ORGANIZATION. 5 We need to start looking at organizational problems as systems problems and seek systemsintegrated solutions. 6 SYSTEMS THINKING We also must try to detect patterns of relationship and interdependence between systems, looking for “leverage points”—areas of influence that, if acted upon, can lead to lasting beneficial changes throughout those systems. 7 THINKING IN LOOPS RATHER THAN LINES AND CURVES. WE TAKE A LONGDISTANCE VIEW OF A PROBLEM. THEN ZOOMED IN TO EXAMINE DETAILS OF THE PROBLEM. TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WE COULD CHANGE TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM. WE CAN BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW CHANGES IN ONE PART OF A SYSTEM CAN AFFECT OTHER PARTS — EVERYTHING IS INTERCONNECTED. 8 2 20/01/2020 MUST KNOW WHY USE VISUALS? SYSTEM STORY • Is the narrative of how systems behave and interconnect and interrelate with each other. EASIER TO ABSORB THAN WORDS. CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM HUMANS ARE VISUAL CREATURES. HALF OF THE HUMAN BRAIN IS DEVOTED TO PROCESSING VISUAL INFORMATION. THE BRAIN CAN IDENTIFY IMAGES FOR AS LITTLE AS 13 MILLISECONDS. AT LEAST 65% OF PEOPLE ARE VISUAL LEARNERS. PRESENTATIONS USING VISUAL AIDS ARE 43% MORE PERSUASIVE. MCGURK EFFECT: WHAT OUR EYES SEE CAN INFLUENCE WHAT WE HEAR. • Is the visual representation of the system story. 9 10 THE LANGUAGE OF THE CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM 80% of what they see and do VARIABLES PEOPLE REMEMBER • Factors • Can be qualitative or quantitative • Can increase or decrease • Can be an expectation or a goal or a result • Can be needs • Can be resources • Things, activities, behaviors, causes, effects 20% of what they read 10% of what they hear 11 CAPITAL CREDIT INVESTMENT PROFIT 12 3 20/01/2020 THE LANGUAGE OF THE CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM Expressed as arrows Change in one variable causes similar change Shows connection and change between variables Change in one variable causes opposite change S INVESTMENT S S 14 AGAIN… THE LANGUAGE OF CLD Nouns •Variables •Nodes Verbs •Arrows •Edges Adjectives FEEDBACKS {THE ADVERBS} REINFORCING ◦ May pagbabago sa sistema na maaaring positibo o negatibo ◦ Lumalala ◦ Virtuous cycle ◦ Nagwawasto o nagbabaluktot ◦ Vicious cycle S S •S for “Same” •O for “Opposite” BIRTHS S 15 BALANCING ◦ Umuulit R POPULATION B DEATHS O 13 PROFIT DEATHS POPULATION BIRTHS S CREDIT S S S CAPITAL O ACTIONS EXAMPLE 16 4 20/01/2020 SAME REINFORCING CAUSE EFFECT S LONELINESS S DEPRESSION 17 CAUSAL EFFECT S LONELINESS S DEPRESSION S S 18 SAME REINFORCING CAUSE EFFECT 19 CAUSAL EFFECT POVERTY S REBELLION S CAUSAL EFFECT CAUSAL EFFECT S S POVERTY REBELLION S S 20 5 20/01/2020 SAME REINFORCING SOLUTION EFFECT INVESTMENT WEALTH S S 21 EFFECT INVESTMENT S WEALTH S S 22 OPPOSITE REINFORCING NEGATIVE STATUS EFFECT ON DESIRED STATUS 23 SOLUTION S O CRIME O SAFETY NEGATIVE STATUS EFFECT ON DESIRED STATUS O O O CRIME SAFETY O 24 6 20/01/2020 SAME OPPOSITE CRIME PROBLEM SOLUTION O O POLICE VISIBILITY S SOLUTION S 25 PROBLEM POLICE VISIBILITY 26 BALANCING O TECHNIQUE O PROBLEM CRIME REINFORCING No O’s SOLUTION 27 CRIME S POLICE VISIBILITY Even number of O’s S BALANCING Odd number of O’s 28 7 20/01/2020 How long it takes for a change in A to cause a change in B (short-term or long-term). The change in a condition and our awareness that the condition has changed. Our awareness that the condition has changed and our decision to act. S S BIRTHS S The decision to act and the act of implementation. R POPULATION B DEATHS O TIME DELAYS WHERE’S THE TIME DELAY? Implementation and a corresponding change in the condition. 29 30 CONNECTING MICRO & MACRO S O R B Time Delay 31 32 8 20/01/2020 37 CORRECT ANSWERS PLUS 3 BONUS POINTS 33 34 35 9