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Macroeconomics Session 1 (Introduction)

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20/01/2020
INTRODUCTION
RIGODON
SESSION 1
GROUPING
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2
IN LINEAR THINKING
LET’S LOOK AT THE
FOREST
FROM MICRO TO MACRO
WE BLAME LIMITED RESOURCES, DOWNPLAY
OUR FAILURES, AND VIEW OTHERS IN A
NEGATIVE LIGHT (SISIHAN).
3
SOME SOLUTIONS ARE OBVIOUS AND
EFFECTIVE IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT HAVE
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES IN THE LONG
TERM: MAKING THINGS WORSE.
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WE TEND TO
identify a problem
as one isolated
occurrence,
RATHER THAN
identify and solve
patterns of
problems IN THE
ORGANIZATION.
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We need to
start looking at
organizational
problems as
systems problems
and seek systemsintegrated
solutions.
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SYSTEMS THINKING
We also must try to detect
patterns of relationship and
interdependence between
systems, looking for
“leverage points”—areas of
influence that, if acted
upon, can lead to lasting
beneficial changes
throughout those systems.
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THINKING IN LOOPS
RATHER THAN LINES AND
CURVES.
WE TAKE A LONGDISTANCE VIEW OF A
PROBLEM.
THEN ZOOMED IN TO
EXAMINE DETAILS OF THE
PROBLEM.
TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WE
COULD CHANGE TO
ADDRESS THE PROBLEM.
WE CAN BETTER
UNDERSTAND HOW
CHANGES IN ONE PART OF
A SYSTEM CAN AFFECT
OTHER PARTS —
EVERYTHING IS
INTERCONNECTED.
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MUST KNOW
WHY USE VISUALS?
SYSTEM STORY
• Is the narrative of how systems behave and
interconnect and interrelate with each other.
EASIER TO
ABSORB THAN
WORDS.
CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM
HUMANS ARE
VISUAL
CREATURES.
HALF OF THE
HUMAN BRAIN
IS DEVOTED TO
PROCESSING
VISUAL
INFORMATION.
THE BRAIN CAN
IDENTIFY
IMAGES FOR AS
LITTLE AS 13
MILLISECONDS.
AT LEAST 65%
OF PEOPLE ARE
VISUAL
LEARNERS.
PRESENTATIONS
USING VISUAL
AIDS ARE 43%
MORE
PERSUASIVE.
MCGURK
EFFECT: WHAT
OUR EYES SEE
CAN INFLUENCE
WHAT WE HEAR.
• Is the visual representation of the system story.
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THE LANGUAGE OF THE
CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM
80% of what
they see and do
VARIABLES
PEOPLE
REMEMBER
• Factors
• Can be qualitative or quantitative
• Can increase or decrease
• Can be an expectation or a goal
or a result
• Can be needs
• Can be resources
• Things, activities, behaviors,
causes, effects
20% of what
they read
10% of what
they hear
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CAPITAL
CREDIT
INVESTMENT
PROFIT
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THE LANGUAGE OF THE
CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM
Expressed as
arrows
Change in one
variable causes
similar change
Shows
connection and
change
between
variables
Change in one
variable causes
opposite change
S
INVESTMENT
S
S
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AGAIN… THE LANGUAGE OF CLD
Nouns
•Variables
•Nodes
Verbs
•Arrows
•Edges
Adjectives
FEEDBACKS {THE ADVERBS}
REINFORCING
◦ May pagbabago sa sistema na maaaring
positibo o negatibo
◦ Lumalala
◦ Virtuous cycle
◦ Nagwawasto o nagbabaluktot
◦ Vicious cycle
S
S
•S for “Same”
•O for “Opposite”
BIRTHS
S
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BALANCING
◦ Umuulit
R
POPULATION
B
DEATHS
O
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PROFIT
DEATHS
POPULATION
BIRTHS
S
CREDIT
S
S
S
CAPITAL
O
ACTIONS
EXAMPLE
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SAME
REINFORCING
CAUSE
EFFECT
S
LONELINESS
S
DEPRESSION
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CAUSAL
EFFECT
S
LONELINESS
S
DEPRESSION
S
S
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SAME
REINFORCING
CAUSE
EFFECT
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CAUSAL
EFFECT
POVERTY
S
REBELLION
S
CAUSAL
EFFECT
CAUSAL
EFFECT
S
S
POVERTY
REBELLION
S
S
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SAME
REINFORCING
SOLUTION
EFFECT
INVESTMENT
WEALTH
S
S
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EFFECT
INVESTMENT
S
WEALTH
S
S
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OPPOSITE
REINFORCING
NEGATIVE
STATUS
EFFECT ON
DESIRED
STATUS
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SOLUTION
S
O
CRIME
O
SAFETY
NEGATIVE
STATUS
EFFECT ON
DESIRED
STATUS
O
O
O
CRIME
SAFETY
O
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SAME
OPPOSITE
CRIME
PROBLEM
SOLUTION
O
O
POLICE
VISIBILITY
S
SOLUTION
S
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PROBLEM
POLICE
VISIBILITY
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BALANCING
O
TECHNIQUE
O
PROBLEM
CRIME
REINFORCING
No O’s
SOLUTION
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CRIME
S
POLICE
VISIBILITY
Even number of
O’s
S
BALANCING
Odd number of
O’s
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How long it takes for a change in A to cause a change in B
(short-term or long-term).
The change in a condition and our awareness that the
condition has changed.
Our awareness that the condition has changed and our
decision to act.
S
S
BIRTHS
S
The decision to act and the act of implementation.
R
POPULATION
B
DEATHS
O
TIME
DELAYS
WHERE’S THE TIME DELAY?
Implementation and a corresponding change in the
condition.
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CONNECTING
MICRO & MACRO
S
O
R
B
Time
Delay
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37 CORRECT ANSWERS
PLUS 3 BONUS POINTS
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