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Meaning of Geopolitical Economics

What is Geopolitical Economics?
Home What is Geopolitical Economics?
Giving a definition
Macroeconomist Christian Takushi has developed the concept of Geopolitical Economics, and
defined it as follows:
Geopolitical Economics is primarily macroeconomic analysis & reasoning that takes into
account geopolitical forces and factors. How geography and control over all types of
resources are not only shaping the political process and foreign policy, but increasingly
the economy and financial markets. Nevertheless not in exclusive mono-causality, but with
causality in both directions. Geopolitical interests are increasingly driving economic and
monetary policy, but economic interests are also shaping military, foreign & energy
policy. This reflects the complexity of a fast-evolving globalised economy with its feedbackloops.
Because “Geopolitics” encompasses all factors related to the geography & resources of
nation states (from river-grids, impassable mountains, minerals, gas, oil . . to . . labor force,
population, their religion and political system), and those factors are undergoing dramatic
changes, Macroeconomic Analysis can no longer focus solely on monetary and financial
phenomena as it did during the Cold-War era. It will otherwise continue to produce
unacceptably inaccurate Economic Outlooks. The post-modern Global Economy is
becoming increasingly geopolitically-influenced, thus we live in the era of Geopolitical
(above definition sprang from over 20 years of exposure to academic theory, empirical research
and practice as an economist & investment manager. It is the result of real-life work, decision
making and the fact that most political and geopolitical research is ideological, not independent
and not practically relevant for business owners and investors. How will a geopolitical risk impact
the economy, trade and currencies? Which sectors will benefit or suffer? Investors cannot afford
to worry about every crisis somewhere in the world. Having said that, businesses and investors
need to embrace the new realities of a world in which geopolitical and political factors are
influencing policy decisions, the economy and financial markets.)
The rise of Geopolitical Economic Research is in part a response to the fact that over the past two
decades world equity, bond & derivatives markets were dramatically affected by so-called external
shocks and forces. Some of the biggest moves in financial markets were not driven by financial
variables, rather policy makers, geopolitics, etc. Example: The recovery of equity prices from 2009
to 2015 was mainly achieved by a massive intervention of US policy makers. They drove the prices
of Government Bonds higher in order to lower Bond Yields in financial markets, single-handedly
shifting inflation & risk expectations out of a “Liquidity Trap”. The rise of China and other powers
as key trade partners, biggest US creditors, but also contenders for global supremacy played a
role in the magnitude and timing of policy-making.
Wikipedia offers one of the best definitions for both Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: (here only
Macroeconomics .. is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior,
and decision-making of an economy as a whole, rather than individual markets. This includes
national, regional, and global economies. With microeconomics, macroeconomics is one of the two
most general fields in economics.
Geopolitics .. is the study of the effects of geography (both human and physical) on international
politics and international relations. Geopolitics is a method of foreign policy analysis which seeks
to understand, explain, and predict international political behaviour primarily in terms of
geographical variables. Typical geographical variables are the physical location, size,
climate, topography, demography, natural resources, and technological advances of the state
being evaluated. Traditionally, the term has applied primarily to the impact of geography on politics,
but its usage has evolved over the past century to encompass wider connotations.
Although a synthesis is needed, the main objective remains
Christian Takushi has developed a synthesis of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis that can
lead to interpretations and predictions that at times go against the consensus of mainstream
financial and broad media. Nevertheless, the main objective is to provide as clear a future
outlook of the Global Economy as possible. Geopolitics in Christian’s research is not an end in
itself, rather the necessary broader analysis in order to capture the dramatic changes in the postmodern world economy, i.e. since the end of the Cold War.
A growing number of decision-makers want to have access to the insights gained through this
distinctive broader approach (Geopolitical Economics). The conclusions of this approach often
differ from the crowded consensus. We endeavour to offer decision-makers a consistent
Geopolitical Macro Perspective that could allow them to weigh opposed rationales and to make
better and more balanced decisions.