Saudi Arabia Iran
Saudi Arabia and Iran both are Muslim countries. Saudi is a Sunni majority country and Iran is
Shia majority. The issues on which these two countries have conflicts are:
1. Geostrategic
2. Sectarian (Shia Sunni)
3. Historical
Geostrategic position of both the countries is important. Persian Gulf plus middle east are of
importance to both the countries. There has been a persistent rivalry between Saudi and Iran for
supremacy in Persian Gulf. Since 2003 Iran is expanding its influence in middle east. First in
Iraq (2003) than in Syria (2011) and Yemen (2015 onwards). Iran also expanded its influence in
the middle east.
In the case of Yemen there are two major cases. First, Yemen is a country which have emended
geostrategic importance for Saudi, Iran and the world. The Gulf of Aden where more than 70%
Saudi oil trade is conducted mostly with the west than china and India.
Growing presence of Iran in Yemen endangers smooth trade of Saudi in Gulf of Aden. Yemen is
neighbored with Saudi. On the Yemen Saudi border Shia population lives. The growing presence
of Iran will influence Saudi Shia population. Secondly, Iran is enhancing its presence in Yemen
by helping Houthi rebels. Iran supported followers of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen. The issue is
that Houthi rebels took over Sanaa and supported by Ali Abdullah Saleh because of differences
with Mansoor Hadi current president of Yemen. Hadi is supported by Saudi and GCC. Most of
the population of Yemen is Houthi but ruler is Sunni.
Syria is a Sunni dominant country with a Shia dictator ruler. Syria is yet another country where
Saudi and Iran have geostrategic rivalry. The government of Bashar Ul Asad is fighting against
Al Nusra and FSA. Iran is supporting government forces and Saudi is supporting FSA and Al
Nusra. At the present the alliance of Asad and Iran is prevailing.
Lebanon has become yet another battle ground for Saudi and Iran. The government forces are
fighting Hizabullah. The government forces are led by Rafiq Harary. Rafiq is supported by Saudi
and GCC. Hizabullah is supported by Iran.
Iran is enhancing its influence in middle east whether Yemen, Syria or Lebanon. Iran is also
expanding to the cost of Saudi. This geostrategic rivalry of both the countries is decades long.
This rivalry first led to the decline of Iran and now it is leading to rise of Iran.
Iranian revolution played an important role in the Decline of Iran. The Iranian revolution
isolated Iran from the rest of the world primarily from west. The revolution led Iran to enmity
with US. US and Iran were strategic partners but it ended in 1979 with Iranian revolution. On the
other hand, US Saudi geostrategic partnership evolved with time. In 1972 US struck Petrodollar
agreement with Saudi. Petrodollar is a secret agreement in which Saudi announced trade oil in
dollar, it helped in dollarization in oil trade. In the return of this agreement Saudi Arabia was
offered protection by US.
The sanctions limited the influence of Iran which helped Saudi to become a leader of ummah and
Middle East in particular. Sanctions on Iran can be divided into two phases. The sanctions of
1979 were imposed by US and EU. The sanctions imposed from 1997 onwards were policy of
nuclearization by US, EU and UN. These sanctions led to the phenomenal decline in exports of
Iran and specifically hydrocarbon. Iran is 2nd largest exporter of gas and 3rd largest exporter of
oil. Iran annually lost more than 100 billion. Import of weapons was banned on Iran. Iran
economy was damaged and isolated.
The formation of GCC in 1980 also played its part in decline of Iran. It helped Saudi to contain
influence of Iran further in gulf. GCC was primarily an economic organization. The task which
was given to it was trade corporation. Saudi contained Iran firstly by its own than through US
and GCC.
From 2003 onwards, the rise of Iran started which is a subnational rival of Saudi Arabia. Iran
was influencing Persian Gulf. First, we saw expansion of Iranian navy with which the strait of
Aden had a strong presence. Second Iran expanded its influence in Iraq after 2003. Iraq that was
ruled by Sadam regin who continued fighting Iran and entered in Iraq Iran war. Iraq played the
role of containing Iran which indirectly benefited Saudi. After fall of Sadam US military
intervened and Shia dominant rule was formed. In 2005 Noor Ul Malak came into the
government in Iraq and tried to decrease sectarianism. Iran got ground access to Iraq through
Syria.
In the Arab uprising Iran is the only beneficiary. Arab uprising was primarily political. There are
two sides of Arab uprising one is peaceful and the other is violent. In case of Egypt and Bahrain
the uprising was peaceful but in Libya, Syria and Yemen etc. the uprising was violent.
Sectarianism is violent in Yemen and Syria. In Bahrain there is political sectarianism but
peaceful. Bahrain is Shia dominant country ruled by Sunni. Massive up ring in middle east which
benefited Iran specifically in the three countries Bahrain, Syria and Iraq. Iran claims Bahrain as
its 14th province. The uprising gave Iran an opportunity to enhance its power in these three
countries.
Sectarianism between Saudi and Iran is a big issue. Iran Shia dominant country with Sunni
minority Saudi vice versa. In both the countries the minority regions are energy enriched.
Second, in both the countries there is strong role in clergy making decisions. Example Saudi
there are two power carriers one political Saud legacy and the second, spiritual legacy of
Wahhabism. They both accommodate each other instead of contradicting. The role of
Wahhabism is visible. US driven phenomena Wahhabism flourished in Saudi Arabia. In afghan
jihad Wahhabism was needed crown prince MBS stated. Saudi supported Wahhabism finically.
Three countries played key role Saudi, US and Pakistan in afghan war. On the other hand, in Iran
role of clergy is since 1979 onwards. The government of revolutionaries in Iran and kingship was
ended. Presidential system was introduced but at the same time supreme council was made led
by Imam Khomeini for the past 27 years Hassan Rouhani is the leader. The highest decisionmaking body is supreme council. After the successful revolution in Iran and establishment of
government in Iran started supporting rebellious forces across the world. Both in Saudi and Iran
the minorities grouped are unequally treated exploited. Sectarian driven polices stayed. On one
hand strategic rivals and the approach adopted was sectarian driven. Saudi supported Sunni and
Wahhabism and Iran supported Shia. Ummah has faced sectarianism from early ages but it never
was violent as it is now.
Its implications in Pakistan:
Pakistan one of the worst affected country of sectarian terrorism. Dangerous Shia sunnier
division. There are series of sectarian outfits in Pakistan. Examples Lashkar e jangvi, sipahe
siyabh, sipahe Muhammad and many more.
Internal Role:
1. All these are violent terrorist groups targeting each other on sectarian grounds.
2. They have been making recruitments in their ranks and for war in the middle east.
3. There are series of sectarian hot beds in Pakistan. Where repeated sectarian rivalry
attacks on sectarian grounds are heard. The leading is Quetta, then GB, Parachinar,
Hangu, D. I. Khan, Karachi and so many more.
4. Saudi Iran effect on Pakistan is sectarian terrorism after 1979. Two major unfortunate
events afghan jihad Saudi role in it, Iranian revolution both the countries started
supporting proxies against each other.
External role:
1) Visible confusion in foreign policy specially in past few years specially in relation to Iran
and Saudi.
2) After 1979 we had a tilt towards Saudi and GCC and increased in 1990’s but since the rival
of Iran particularly after P5+1 deal Pakistan has not been able to either of the parties or to
strike a balance. Examples during 2015 Yemen crisis Saudi demanded military support from
Pakistan to which Islamabad refused to provide. In 2017 Pakistan provided troops on certain
conditions. Pakistan has not made a clear opinion on Yemen or Syria nor proper neutrality.
3) The reasons of confusion are the massive economic, diplomatic and spiritual importance of
Saudi.
Economic importance:
The biggest foreign remitter is Saudi and one of the highest aid provider. Second, providing
oil on subsides rate. Saudi also provided oil as a gift to Pakistan which was 5000 barrels per
day from 1998 to 2001. One of the largest exporter of meat, milk, textile and many more.
Pakistan defense exports are mostly towards Saudi.
Diplomatic importance:
Two major things are there for diplomatic importance of not only Saudi but all GCC. Saudi is
the closest ally of US. In US Pakistan relation Saudi play a role of mediator. Saudi is leader
of Muslim ummah. The more the vacuum created by Pakistan in Arab world the more space
is occupied by India. When Pakistan refused to provide soldiers so the foreign minister of
KSA said, now we will teach a lesson to Pakistan. Saudi king participated in Indian day as a
chief guest. Modi was awarded the highest state award of KSA.
Spiritual importance
The spiritual importance of Saudi is because of Mecca and Medina.
4) Iran importance for Pakistan though the country has been suffering from international
isolation and Pakistan has no stronger economic relations with the country but it has been
immediate neighbor of Pakistan having demographic influence on Pakistan. The more tilt of
Pakistan towards Saudi, Iran tilt towards India. India has been using Afghanistan as a
launching pad through the route of Iran. There is a possibility of positive engagements of Iran
in CPEC. Pakistan is transform into a transit corridor through CPEC. Iran want to increase
energy export to china through Pakistan. Iran Pakistan pipe line another point of convergence
a life line for energy sector in Pakistan more than 75% will be fulfilled by this line. Pakistan
could not pursue the pipe line because of the sanctions. Pakistan has been pressurized by US
and Saudi to not conduct business relation with Iran. Saudi used the tactic of providing aid
while US will put sanctions on Pakistan. P5+1 deal open a way to pipe line. Pakistan needs to
reduce the influence of India in Afghanistan and Iran to successfully stop the introversion of
India in Baluchistan. Pakistan and Iran need to minimize the border tensions. These are the
reason that there is visible confusion in foreign policy of Pakistan.
5) IMCTC is combined military force of ummah participated by 41 countries. Like NATO
IMCTC is in the making. The chief of IMCTC is Rahel Sharief. The all major 4 IMCTC are
to be headed by Pakistan is offered by crown prince of Saudi which are the combat force,
Counter terror finance, counter terrorist ideologies and providing support to Muslim
countries in above mentioned areas.
Do the ummah needs military alliance or not?
The Muslim world needs military alliance for many reasons:
1. Majority of the Muslims countries are existential threaten by West. To counter these
organizations there is a necessity for military
2. To stop future NATO intervention or any other non-Muslim country. NATO played the
key role in protecting the interest of west from Russian federation. In case a Muslim
country is attacked by non-Muslim country so there should be a force to protect them.
3. Limitations of IMCTC is Iran, Syria and Iraq are missing from alliance. This organization
is led by Saudi and Iran is arch rival of Saudi. This organization is labelled by sectarian
issues. There is every possibility to use this origination against Iran.
4. How to define a terrorist? It would be difficult for IMCTC. If it is al Qaida or ISIS but
would IMCTC go against Houthi rebels or not? Would it go for military operations
against Nusra? Would it be Saudi controlled organization or other countries will play its
role?
5. Should Pakistan be part of it or not? Pakistan needs to be the part of this alliance but if it
becomes sectarian Pakistan should exit. Firstly, Pakistan is sole military power of
ummah. Second, ummah has been depended on Pakistan for military. Pakistan is the only
Muslim country having vast experience in fighting against terrorism. The leadership and
four departments are offered to Pakistan by Saudi. Pakistan defense role will increase. It
is an opportunity not to be wasted. If Pakistan is not ready to opt this opportunity Egypt is
ready to take it. There are many options for Saudi but they trusts Pakistan more.
In Saudi Iran relation Pakistan needs to be mediator. Pakistan needs to enhance its engagement
with Iran and keeping close relations with Saudi.
P5+1 Deal:
Removal of sanctions from Iran in the form of P5+1 deal. Iran agreed to reduce enrichment of
uranium to 5% and platinum to 3.4%. Iran will use uranium only for civilian purposes. To make
a nuclear weapon it need 90% uranium. Iran also agreed to dismantle those reactors having
higher enrichment facilities like in Arak. Iran also agreed to transport uranium, which is highly
enrich, to Russia. Iran is benefited from the process of removal of sanctions. In July 2013 after
very first month of removal of sanctions oil was exported which benefited 30 million. Foreign
reserves of Iran were freeze worth of 44 billion dollars. Iran could purchase weapon but once it
completes the process of reducing enrichment of uranium. Iran got benefits like the rival of
Iranian economy. Annually 100 billion was a loss for Iran. Iran got food and medicine for export
but in return it got oil like a barter system. It also provided Iran to expand its influence.
After the removal of sanctions Iran was no more isolated. Iran got its enrichment of uranium to
22%. This deal gave stomach pain to Israel and Saudi. Israel said it’s a historical blunder. Saudi
warned the world epically US that Iran wants to buy some time to build a nuclear weapon. Iran
started supporting its proxies in middle east.
Trump withdrawal from this deal the pressure of Israel and Saudi. Trump is reversing the
policies of Obama climate change, free trade, immigration, Israel related, Saudi related or Iran
related. P5+1 driving force was Obama administration. The initial point was telephone call
between Rohini and Obama. Trump electoral manifesto was that it will reverse P5+1 deal.
Can America leave the deal so easily?
In the foreign polices of US executive are to decide or reverse. The second strong role is of
senate. In the case of p5+1 deal situation is a bit more complicated. P5+1 comity has been
established under the leadership of IAEA one each from p5+1. This comity oversees the
performance of Iran. It monitors performance of Iran regarding enrichment of uranium. It
submits its report to leadership of the P5+1 and it is handed to foreign ministers of P5. The
cancelation and continuation of the deal is depended on IAEA. No country can unilaterally exist
from the deal. Secondly, the other members of the deal EU, UK, France, Russia and Germany
continues the deal. The deal is of 11 years efforts. India has rejected the request of trump to all
allies that stop trading with Iran. There are series of multinational companies in hydrocarbon
sector. Trump has threatened to impose sanctions on companies. China has speeded up its
influence on Iran. China is importing energy from Middle east.