ENERGIZED – Energy Markets via
Satellite
ASSESSING THE SATELLITE OPPORTUNITY FOR OIL & GAS,
MINING, AND UTILITY SECTORS
July 2013
Christopher Baugh, President
Brad Grady, Senior Analyst
www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR
ENERGIZED – Energy Market’s via Satellite
Agenda
Presenters
About NSR & Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
1 The HTS Era?
Brad Grady
Senior Analyst
NSR Washington DC
2 The Oil & Gas Sector: from Shale-gas to Deep-water…
bgrady@nsr.com
3 The Mining Market: A Steady Opportunity
Christopher Baugh
President
NSR London
4 The Utility Market: The 2-R’s: “Resilient” and “Redundant”
cbaugh@nsr.com
5 Bottom Line
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July 2013
2
About NSR & Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
About NSR
NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting
Founded in 2000, NSR specializes in analysis of growth
opportunities across the satellite industry
Extensive Client Research, Consulting and Advisory
Services
Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics
NSR’s expert consultants are located globally and
possess over 120 years of combined industry
experience.
“Holistic” approach to research enables NSR to anticipate trends with a higher
degree of confidence and precision than the competition and stay ahead of the curve.
Energized - Satellite Opportunity for Energy Markets
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July 2013
3
About NSR & Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
The NSR Footprint
Global in Reach, Local in Knowledge
NSR features the most global presence of any satellite consulting/research company. With on the ground regional
experience in established and emerging markets, NSR’s multi-cultural and multi-lingual team provides industry-leading
telecom market research and consulting delivering unique, actionable intelligence.
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July 2013
4
About NSR & Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
NSR’s Thought Leadership
NSR has been ahead of the curve since it’s inception…
NSR coined the acronym “HTS”
HTS is now the industry standard
NSR was first analyst firm to provide HTS
quantitative/qualitative analysis across all markets
First consulting group to publish research on
several emerging topics
Energy Markets via Satellite
HTS Capacity Trends
Wireless Backhaul via Satellite
IPTV
Hosted Payloads
Mobile TV
SCADA, M2M Markets
And MANY more
NSR was one of the early adopters of market coverage via regular Webinars
and Bottom Line analyst perspectives
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July 2013
5
About NSR & Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
About Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition
NSR’s Energy Market via Satellite, 3rd Edition
Report Breakdown
Addressable
Vertical Markets
(2012)
In-service Units
(2012 - 2022)
Revenues
(2012 - 2022)
Bandwidth
Demand
(2012 - 2012)
New this Edition:
Study of Mining & Utility Verticals
Arctic Analysis for O&G Market
Study of O3b (MEO-HTS)
Oil & Gas*
* Incl. Arctic
• EP (Onshore,
Offshore)
• DIST
(Onshore,
Offshore)
Mining
• Onshore
MSS
ARPU
FSS
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by MSS, FSS,
HTS, O3b
• by Vertical
• by Region
FSS
Services
HTS
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by C-/Kubands
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by MSS, FSS,
HTS, O3b
• by Vertical
• by Region
Utilities
• Generation
• Transmission
HTS
• by Vertical
• by Region
Equipment
O3b
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by MSS, FSS,
HTS, O3b
• by Vertical
• by Region
Bandwidth
O3b
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by Vertical
• by Region
• by FSS, HTS,
O3b
Energized - Satellite Opportunity for Energy Markets
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NSR reports deliver clarity - Critical market
insight giving Market Leaders the edge over
the competition..
A Complete PowerPoint report document containing
all quantitative and qualitative analysis
A Market Summary document containing an overview
of the report findings and recommendations.
An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the
client can easily use this work as a basis for their own
internal market projections
Four (4) hours of consulting time with the NSR analyst
who authored the report to review report findings and
interpret market forecasts
July 2013
6
The HTS Era?
A Bandwidth Revolution for Energy End-Users
www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR
The HTS Era?
HTS- What is the Latest?
Global HTS Bandwidth Revenues by Application
Global HTS Bandwidth Demand by Application
100%
100%
Contribution & OUTV
80%
Contribution & OUTV
80%
Distribution
DTH
60%
Gov/Mil
Commercial Mobility
40%
% Share
% Share
Distribution
DTH
60%
Gov/Mil
Commercial Mobility
40%
Enterprise Data
Enterprise Data
20%
Broadband Access
20%
Broadband Access
0%
0%
2012
2012
2021
2021
Source : NSR
Source : NSR
What’s the Latest?
In pure usage terms, consumer-class broadband access will dominate HTS bandwidth
demand in future … a “high volumes business …”.
But wholesale revenues from HTS tell a different story …
“follow the revenues” to see drivers behind different HTS business plans
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July 2013
8
The HTS Era?
MSS Market Capacity Shift
Order of Magnitude from MSS to FSS to HTS
HTS
C-band
Ku-Band
Up to 350
Mbps
500 Kbps up
to 10 Mbps
~ 500 Kbps
L-Band
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July 2013
9
The HTS Era?
HTS vs. FSS vs. MSS: Regional Coverage
2012
Source: Viasat
2015
Source: Intelsat
2012
2014
Source: TBS
Source: Eutelsat
2013
Source: O3B Networks
2014
Source: Inmarsat
5 out of 6 HTS mobility value proposition offer regional coverage
Key areas of demand: airlines corridors, cruise ships and shipping lanes,
offshore platforms, government and military
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July 2013
10
The HTS Era?
HTS and Oil & Gas Markets
Bottom Line:
Energy Markets O&G Bandwidth (Mbps)
25,000
HTS and O3b will contribute significantly to the
bandwidth revolution occurring throughout the
energy markets.
Enhanced oil recovery, crew-welfare, and
business applications contribute to higher
bandwidth demands for the Oil & Gas market.
15,000
Mbps
Traditional FSS capacity will still exist to provide
high-redundancy, but hybrid solutions utilizing
least-cost/highest throughput schemes
continue to become the status quo…. Even
with C-band users.
20,000
10,000
5,000
The Lower cost and Higher Throughputs
from HTS and O3b are shaping up to
significantly alter the Bandwidth Paradigm
within the Energy Markets
-
2012
C Mbps
2013
2014
Ku Mbps
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
HTS (GEO-HTS) Mbps
O3b (MEO-HTS) Mbps
Source : NSR
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July 2013
11
The Oil & Gas Sector
From Shale-gas to Deep-water… Looking at Exploration &
Production, and Distribution (Pipelines/Tankers)
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The Oil & Gas Sector: Market Trends
Oil Production Rates on the Rise
2030’s Oil Still Waiting:
Ramp-down of existing wells through 2030 will
further boost communications requirements from
environmental monitoring and regulatory requirements
persist throughout the decommissioning process.
Future field developments, combined with more
exploration activities all lead to an increased need
for communications across the O&G lifecycle
(Exploration, Production, and Decommissioning.)
Deep-water Opportunities:
Even after Macondo BP Continues to move
into Deep-water opportunities throughout the
world – as does the rest of the Industry.
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July 2013
13
The Oil & Gas Sector: Market Trends
Demand and Movement of Petroleum Continues
Overall Movement:
Development of new fields will encourage increased
demand for both tankers and pipelines.
Tankers will continue to support a significant amount
of movement of petroleum products – however, with
increased piracy, tanker oversupply, and depressed
day-rates, the tanker market remains caught in the
midst of a downturn.
Choke-Points Spurring Pipelines:
Almost half of all world’s oil production moves on
maritime routes – which are increasingly through hostile
waters.
Facing increased threats to oil supply, nations are taking
steps to increase pipeline capacity – such as the
Myanmar-China pipeline to bypass the Strait of Malacca.
Overall, Demand, Production, and Transportation of Petroleum continues to increase…
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July 2013
14
The Oil & Gas Sector: Market Trends
“Last-Mile” Locations Meet “First-Mile” Solutions
Terrestrial Options on the Rise
BP’s fiber network in the Gulf of Mexico
is 1280km long, and cost $80M to build.
Terrestrial microwave links can
extend each offshore landing point an
additional 20 – 50 km.
The North Sea has the most extensive
fiber network connecting Aberdeen,
Scotland to Bergen, Norway in less than
10 ms, at over 1 Gbps.
West Africa continues to look
promising for increased terrestrial
developments (mature fields, and
concentrations of activity.)…
AND, more activity within the
Brazilian pre-salt..
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July 2013
15
The Oil & Gas Sector: Addressable Markets
Exploration & Production
O&G Addressable Market: E&P
The Move to Deep Water
Offshore
9%
More Shale Gas Around the World
Onshore
91%
Onshore
Increased “Energy Independence” movement by nationstates have spurred Shale Gas (Fracking) around the
world.
In the Barnett Shale play in the US, the average well
production lifespan is only 7 years, with a 60% reduction
in total output within the first years.
Rapid well depletion leads to increased exploration
activities, with onshore rigs moving every 3 days or less.
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Source : NSR
Offshore
The offshore EP market continues to be driven by the
push into Deepwater – which translate to longer transit
times (6 – 24 hrs. in US GoM to 30+ hrs. in frontier
locations in Offshore Brazil, Asia Pac.)
Utilization of Offshore Support Vessels continues to favor
newer AHTS and PSVs (newer than 1991)
Additionally, more than 160 new OSVs are expected to
be launched between 2013 – 2014.
July 2013
16
The Oil & Gas Sector: Addressable Markets
Distribution
Tankers
1%
O&G Addressable Market: DIST
450,000
400,000
Addressable Market
O&G Addressable Market: DIST
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
Pipeline Miles
99%
LAM
EU
Pipeline Miles
MEA
ASIA
AOR
A continued slow-down in global economic growth has
stalled most pipeline construction.
Pipelines ending in Asia are the exception to this
slowdown as the region continues to show growth
prospects.
Shale-gas boom, however, provides a better outlook for
the pipeline market.
IOR
POR
ARC
Tankers
Source : NSR
Source : NSR
Onshore
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NAM
Offshore
Day-rates for Suezmax-class vessels remain below their
2011 high, whereas Aframax-class vessels are trending
closer to 2012 levels.
A refinery-capacity crunch in Asia continues to shift
tanker capacity into the region.
Over 46 vessels traversed the Northern Sea Route in
2012, a 53% increase over 2011 levels. Of those
vessels, the majority were petroleum tankers.
July 2013
17
The Oil & Gas Sector
• Global, multi-band coverage
• Quick technical support (24 – 36
hours)
• Well in excess of 512 kbps CIRs
• Strong CIRs, SLAs, and QoS
• Support for remote monitoring
including near-HD video
• Tools and services for well-site
monitoring and Safety and
Environmental Management
Systems regulation requirements
• Bandwidth for crew, operational, and
third-party requirements.
• Least price sensitive group, and
Most risk averse
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DIST
E&P
End-user Requirements
• Global coverage (including support
for hybrid solutions (pipelines) and
polar regions (tankers))
• Typical CIRs of 128 kbps for tankers,
narrowband requirements for
pipelines
• Real-time tracking and critical
infrastructure monitoring and control
for pipelines
• Video an emerging requirement.
• Cost management for large fleet
operators, bandwidth re-provisioning
for pipelines.
• Most price sensitive group and
Moderately risk averse.
July 2013
18
The Oil & Gas Sector
Drivers & Restraints to SATCOM
Drivers
Restraints
More terrestrial
connectivity
More
applications
demanding
more
bandwidth
Increases in
addressable
market size
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Increased
remote
monitoring
and
oversight
Movement to
centralized control
and reducing remote
workforce
Tanker Market
oversupply, and
shift towards
onshore
development
July 2013
19
The Oil & Gas Sector
Bandwidth Demand
Bandwidth Demand:
Energy Markets O&G Bandwidth Demand, by
Band
140.00
C-band deployments and bandwidth needs will continue
to increase… but higher-end segments will begin to
supplement/replace their bandwidth needs with both
MEO and GEO-HTS.
18.00
16.00
120.00
14.00
Ku-band will see a greater increase in utilization in terms
of per-site provisioning, and number of sites.
12.00
HTS (GEO-HTS) will require 14 Gbps of bandwidth by
2022.
10.00
O3b (MEO-HTS) is restricted to a limited pool of
locations with enough real estate to support it… but
they are also the heaviest users of bandwidth – at 2.3
Gbps by 2022.
80.00
Gbps
TPEs (36 MHz)
100.00
8.00
60.00
6.00
40.00
4.00
20.00
2.00
0.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
C TPEs
Ku TPEs
HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps
0.00
O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps
Source : NSR
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Energy Markets Bandwidth Demand, by Band
TPEs/Gbps
2012
2017
2022
CAGR
C TPEs
28
42
47
5.4%
Ku TPEs
42
55
69
5.0%
HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps
-
4
14
58.2%
O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps
-
1
2.3
24.0%
July 2013
20
The Oil & Gas Sector
Bottom Line: Oil & Gas
Key Findings:
Energy Markets O&G In-service Units, by Band
EP will generate more revenues, but have fewer Inservice Units. Offshore will lead EP revenue growth.
180,000
160,000
140,000
In-service Units
The O&G sector will account for 39% of total InService Units, 69% of Retail Revenues, and 88% of
Bandwidth demand (excl. MSS, measured in Mbps)
over the next ten years.
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
By 2022, almost half of all EP Retail Revenues will be
generated by GEO-HTS/MEO-HTS(O3b.)
O&G C
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
O&G Ku
O&G GEO-HTS
O&G MEO-HTS (O3b)
O&G MSS
Source : NSR
Retail Revenues
In-service Units, Net Gain
In-service Units, C-band %
E&P
DIST
$7.5 Billion
$4.3 Billion
24,600
54,200
Energy Markets O&G Total Retail Revenues, by
Band
$1,800.00
$1,600.00
$1,400.00
$1,200.00
$1,000.00
$M
2012 – 2022
88%
12%
$800.00
$600.00
$400.00
In-service Units, Ku-band %
12%
88%
$200.00
$-
In-service Units, GEO-HTS %
90%
10%
In-service Units, MEO-HTS %
100%
0%
In-service Units, MSS %
70%
30%
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O&G C
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
O&G Ku
Bottom Line:
O&G GEO-HTS
O&G MEO-HTS (O3b)
O&G MSS
Source : NSR
Strong demand for Oil & Gas Continues to drive market,
generating over $11B in Cumulative Retail Revenues
over the next ten years.
July 2013
21
The Mining Sector
A Steady Opportunity
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The Mining Sector: Market Trends
Where in the World?
Mining Activity Around-the-World
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July 2013
23
The Mining Sector: Market Trends
Write-downs at All Time High
Bottom Line:
Mining companies continue to face stalled commodity pricing, tempering of demand for raw materials, and an increased
cost of operations – all showing signs of low to moderate growth in mining exploration, and production.
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July 2013
24
The Mining Sector: Market Trends
“Top 10” List of Factors Influencing Mining Companies
1. Higher Cost of Doing Business
2. Uncertain Outlook on Commodity Demand
3. Capital Project Over-runs
4. An Increase in M&A Activity
5. Manage “Resource Nationalism”
6. Operate amidst Government Corruption
7. Continue & Expand Corporate-social Responsibility Initiatives
8. Skills Shortage
9. Improve Health and Safety
10. Need for Increased Technology Investment
Source: Deloitte “Tracking the Trends 2013 – Top 10 Issues Mining Companies May
Face in the Coming Year”
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July 2013
25
The Mining Sector: Addressable Markets
Mining
Mining Market Addressable Market
Addressable Market
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
NAM
LAM
EU
MEA
ASIA
Mines
Source : NSR
Mining Market
Skewed towards smaller-scale production mines, operational sophistication varies greatly amongst both large and
small operations.
Overall underground mines continue to be more common (~60% of total)
Middle-East Africa mines have considerably lower output on average than other regions, while North America tend to
be more productive than average.
Increased activity within Asia (both China and Australia), are expected to drive market growth going forward.
Additionally, market sources indicate that there is at least an additional 8,000 – 13,000 small to large scale mining
operation in various stages of exploration and development as of Jan 1, 2013
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July 2013
26
The Mining Sector
Mining
End-user Requirements
• Support enterprise-class ERP applications for larger mining locations, in
addition to supporting asset tracking, SCADA, VLAN/VPN, and increasingly
video services.
• Bandwidth provisioning ranging from 128 kbps – 18 Mbps +
• Larger operations (such as Rio Tinto’s Australia Operations) are highly
automated, have large numbers of on-site personnel, and have ‘institutional
overhead’ – daily reports, production figures, etc., all driving bandwidth
demands.
• Ability to support IP, VPN, and VoIP applications, with increasing needs for
video monitoring for physical security.
• Exploration activity mirrors O&G exploration market, but with slightly lower
bandwidth requirements.
• Smaller operations tend to be more price sensitive, and have less institutional
overhead resulting in smaller bandwidth requirements.
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July 2013
27
The Mining Sector
Drivers & Restraints to SATCOM
Drivers
Restraints
More
terrestrial
connectivity
Increased
Exploration
activities
More
businessapplications
deployed to
mine site.
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Greater
mining
automation
Slowdown in mineral
pricing stalling future
production
Internal Satellite
Market competition
(bands against
bands)
July 2013
28
The Mining Sector
Bandwidth Demand
Mining Bandwidth Demand
Energy Markets Mining Bandwidth Demand, by
Band
30.00
1.00
25.00
15.00
0.60
GEO-HTS will have higher provisioning rates than C- and
Ku-band, but will only see greater adoption beyond 2019.
10.00
0.40
5.00
0.20
0.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
C TPEs
Ku TPEs
HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps
Gbps
0.80
Ku-band will begin to see a near-term growth burst, but
as GEO/MEO-HTS services ramp-up, Ku-band demand
will begin to diminish.
20.00
TPEs (36 MHz)
C-band remains a strong growth outlook as increased
activity in rain-prone regions and conservative end-users
continue to support greater demand.
1.20
0.00
O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps
Source : NSR
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MEO-HTS demand will be driven more by the addition of
new locations.
Energy Markets Mining Bandwidth Demand, by Band
TPEs/Gbps
2012
2017
2022
CAGR
C TPEs
2
4
5
10.2%
Ku TPEs
8
15
19
9.0%
HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps
-
-
1
43.2%
O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps
-
-
0.4
33.6%
July 2013
29
The Mining Sector
The Bottom Line: Mining
Key Findings
Energy Markets Mining In-service Units, by Band
Mining will remain a niche market, with a limited number
of mining operations compared to O&G or Utilities.
Less than 2% of total In-service Units Mining Endusers generate almost 12% of total Energy Market
Retail Revenues over the forecast period.
8,000
7,000
In-service Units
However, the market has solid growth prospects, and
provides an additional revenue stream to O&G-players.
9,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2012
Mining C
2013
Mining Ku
2014
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mining GEO-HTS
Mining MEO-HTS (O3b)
2021
2022
Mining MSS
Source : NSR
Energy Markets Mining Total Retail Revenues, by Band
$350.00
$300.00
$250.00
$M
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
$50.00
$-
2012
Mining C
2013
2014
Mining Ku
2015
2016
Mining GEO-HTS
2017
2018
2019
Mining MEO-HTS (O3b)
2020
2021
2022
Mining MSS
Source : NSR
Bottom Line:
Mining contribute to 10% of Bandwidth demand (measured in Mbps, excl. MSS) over the next ten years.
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July 2013
30
The Electrical Utility Sector
The 2-R’s: “Resilient” and “Redundant”… A Look at
Generation & Transmission
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The Electrical Utility Sector: Market Trends
Electrical Utilities Continue to Face Challenges - Weather
Stronger Storms creating More Power Outages:
“Hurricane”/”Superstorm” Sandy caused over 8.5m
households to be without power – in some cases for
weeks.
In the US alone, studies have indicated that the
economic cost of electrical outages at $30 - $400
Billion per year.
AND.. A warmer climate indicates stronger storms hitting
populated areas.
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July 2013
32
The Electrical Utility Sector: Market Trends
Electrical Utilities Continue to Face Challenges - Generation
Percentage of Variable Generation of Electricity
More Distributed Sources of Generation:
By 2050, IEA estimates that ‘variable generation’ (sources such as wind, hydro) will account for a minimum of 10% of
electrical generation.
Larger number of smaller generation locations will increase the need for reliable, resilient communications
infrastructure.
Increased penetration of distributed and variable generation will continue to push the need for more data.
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July 2013
33
The Electrical Utility Sector: Market Trends
Electric Utilities – What is a ‘Smart Grid’?
The Smart Grid – according to the IEA/US
Dept. of Energy:
Technology Areas covered under a smart grid
Enables informed participation by customers
Accommodates all generation and storage options
Enables new products, services and markets
Provides the power quality for the range of needs
Optimizes asset utilization and operating efficiency
Provides resiliency to disturbances, attacks and natural
disasters
…. is bringing the IP revolution to the electrical grid.
The Evolution of Electrical Grid Infrastructure
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July 2013
34
The Electrical Utility Sector
Addressable Markets: Utilities
Utility Markets
Utility Market Addressable Market
Generation
3%
Transmission markets, driven by substations, is the
largest addressable market segment – however most Inservice Units will be MSS, Pole-mount applications.
In the generation market, North America and Europe
drive market growth through the near term, when Asia
takes over. Transmission markets will remain a North
America/Europe play.
Non-renewable sources of energy comprise the largest
component of the generation market, with automated
substations on the transmission side.
Utility Market Addressable Market: Generation
Transmission
97%
Source : NSR
Utility Market Addressable Market: Transmission
Non-automated
32%
Renewable
39%
Non-Renewable
61%
Automated
68%
Source : NSR
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Source : NSR
July 2013
35
The Electrical Utility Sector
• Relatively insensitive to latency,
polling frequency varies from
every few hours, to sub-minute
rates.
• Ability to support IP, VPN, and
VoIP applications.
• Full integration with terrestrial
connectivity.
• Integration with SCADA networks.
• Integration with remote
environmental monitoring sensors
(Renewable Generation).
• Increasing demand for live and still
images.
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TRANSMISSION
GENERATION
End-user Requirements
• Meet strict reliability and
environmental requirements for
VSAT installations in Sub-stations.
• Support least-cost routing
schemes.
• <10 ms to fully support Substation
control.
• Latency insensitive for
monitoring/limited control.
• Support for IP, VPN, VoIP
applications.
• Increasing demand for live and still
images.
July 2013
36
The Electrical Utility Sector
Drivers & Restraints to SATCOM
Drivers
Restraints
More fixedterrestrial
connectivity
CIP-like
Regulations
Increased Distributed
Generation and more
Transmission
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Video ,
Remote
Sensing, and
Businesscentric
applications
Increased generation
automation, and stalled
Transmission market
growth
Bundled
3G/4G
terrestrial
integration
July 2013
37
The Electrical Utility Sector
Bottom Line: Utility Market
Key Facts
Energy Markets Utility In-service Units, by Band
350,000
In both the Generation and Transmission side of Utility, it
is a volume-driven market.
2012 – 2022
Generation
Transmission
Retail Revenues
$4.4 Billion
$5.4 Billion
In-service Units, Net Gain
24,600
54,200
In-service Units, C-band %
N/A
N/A
In-service Units, Ku-band %
70%
30%
80%
20%
In-service Units, GEO-HTS %
In-service Units, MEO-HTS %
N/A
N/A
In-service Units, MSS %
<1%
99%
Bottom Line
In-service Units
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
Utility C
2012
2013
Utility Ku
2014
2015
2016
Utility GEO-HTS
2017
2018
2019
2020
Utility MEO-HTS (O3b)
2021
2022
Utility MSS
Source : NSR
Energy Markets Utility Total Retail Revenues, by
Band
$700.00
$600.00
$500.00
$400.00
$M
SCADA is critical, enterprise-class applications are
second, and video is an increasing 3rd important
application driving market growth.
300,000
$300.00
$200.00
$100.00
$-
Utility C
2012
2013
Utility Ku
2014
2015
2016
Utility GEO-HTS
2017
2018
2019
2020
Utility MEO-HTS (O3b)
2021
2022
Utility MSS
Source : NSR
Only 2 % of bandwidth (measured in Mbps, excl. MSS), but 60% of In-service units yields 20% of Energy Market
retail revenues.
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July 2013
38
The Bottom Line
Where Are We Heading?
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The Energy Markets: Key Findings
In-service Units
Energy Market:
Energy Markets In-service Units, by Segment
EP Offshore will lead the Oil & Gas revenue growth,
followed closely by the need for narrowband SCADA
connectivity in the Transmission and Distribution
Onshore Markets.
The strongest growth will occur outside North
America through 2022.
In-service Units
Energy Markets will continue to be driven by the Oil &
Gas sector.
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
E&P
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
DISTRIBUTION
MINING
GENERATION
TRANSMISSION
Source : NSR
Energy Markets In-service Units, 2012
AOR
ASIA 3%
10%
Energy Markets In-service Units, 2022
IOR POR
1% 1% ARC
0%
AOR IOR
2% 1%
POR
2%
ASIA
22%
MEA
8%
Growth continues
outside North
America to 2022
EU
18%
NAM
53%
LAM
6%
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NAM
40%
MEA
8%
EU
16%
Source : NSR
ARC
0%
LAM
9%
Source : NSR
July 2013
40
The Energy Markets: Key Findings
Retail Revenues
Energy Markets Total Retail Revenues 2012 - 2022,
by Band
$3,000.00
Energy Markets Total Retail Revenues 2012 - 2022,
by Band
$M
$2,500.00
$2,000.00
$1,500.00
C
14%
$1,000.00
$500.00
$C
MSS
30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ku
HTS (GEO-HTS)
O3b (MEO-HTS)
MSS
Source : NSR
Total Retail Revenues 2012 - 2022:
For 2012 – 2022, FSS will account for over 50% of Retail
Revenues:
FSS: $9 Billion
GEO-HTS: $1 Billion
MEO-HTS: $1.6 Billion
O3b (MEOHTS)
9%
Ku
41%
HTS (GEOHTS)
6%
MSS: $5 Billion
By 2022, FSS will account for $1.4B in revenues, GEOHTS and MEO-HTS will account for slightly more than
$600M, and MSS will account for slightly less than $600M.
Energized - Satellite Opportunity for Energy Markets
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Source : NSR
July 2013
41
The Energy Markets: Key Findings
Bandwidth Demand
Bandwidth Demand:
Energy Markets Bandwidth Demand, by Band
The Offshore EP segment drives C-band bandwidth
demand, while both the onshore and offshore EP
segments drive O3b demand.
Enhanced oil recovery, crew-welfare, and business
applications contribute to higher bandwidth demands for
the Oil & Gas market. Increased mining
automation/security, and more requirements for data
reporting in the utility sector driving demand elsewhere.
16.00
120.00
14.00
100.00
80.00
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10.00
8.00
60.00
6.00
40.00
4.00
20.00
0.00
Traditional FSS capacity will still exist to provide highredundancy, but hybrid solutions become status quo
utilizing least-cost/highest throughput schemes.
12.00
Gbps
GEO-HTS and MEO-HTS will add an additional 18
Gbps of throughput to Energy markets by 2022 – driven
by higher provisioning and In-service Unit growth.
18.00
140.00
TPEs (36 MHz)
Ku-band, and GEO-HTS is driven by bandwidth demand
in all segments, with volume in distribution and
transmission markets making up for the lower bandwidth
provisioning.
20.00
160.00
2.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
C TPEs
Ku TPEs
HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps
0.00
O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps
Source : NSR
July 2013
42
The Energy Markets: Key Findings
Bottom Line
Energy Markets In-service Units Comparisons
Key Findings:
Utilities, with large deployments of SCADA-centric Inservice Units, leads total In-service Unit– 80,000 to
almost 300,000 by 2022.
O&G
39%
Oil & Gas will contribute 70% of retail revenues within the
Energy market from 2012 – 2022 – Almost $12B.
Utilities
59%
Oil & Gas will require the most throughput, an average of
12 Gbps from 2012 – 2022 across FSS, GEO-HTS, and
MEO-HTS systems.
Energy Markets Retail Revenues Comparisons
Energy End-users will average 14 Gbps of throughput
demand from 2012 – 2022.
Source : NSR
Utilities
19%
Energy Markets Bandwidth (Mbps) Comparisons
Mining
10%
Mining
2%
Mining
12%
Utilities
2%
O&G
69%
Bottom Line:
Source : NSR
The Energy Market continues to offer good growth prospects
for the satellite communications sector, generating approx.
$1.6B over the next ten years.
O&G
88%
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Source : NSR
July 2013
43
Questions?
Brad Grady
Senior Analyst, NSR Washington DC
U.S. Office
Europe Office
Northern Sky Research, LLC (NSR)
1000 N. West St., Suite 1200
Wilmington, DE 19801
Northern Sky Research, Ltd (NSR)
19 Bolsover Street
London W1W 5NA
United States
Phone: 302-295-4981
United Kingdom
Phone: 44 (0) 207 886 0875
www.nsr.com
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