COMPARISON OF ELECTRICITY
GENERATION COST OF NPP WITH
ALTERNATES IN PAKISTAN
IAEA INPRO dialogue forum 8 toward nuclear energy system
sustainability: economics, resource availability and institutional
arrangements
Vienna, Austria
August 26-29, 2014
Muhammad Saleemullah, Applied Systems Analysis Division,
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
Contents
2
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Some basic facts
Current status
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Energy situation
Electricity situation
Nuclear power status
Peak demand forecast
Energy sources for power generation
Comparison of alternate options
Pakistan: Basic Facts 2013
3
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Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world
having about 183 million population (Urban share: 37%)
Population growth : 2.0% per year
GDP : 223,378 Million US dollar
GDP growth : 3.7% per year
Per capita income : 1,340 US dollar
Total primary energy supply: 64.6 MTOE
Per capita energy supply : 0.35 TOE
Electricity generation : 98,894 GWh
Per capita electricity consumption: 420 kWh
Installed Capacity May 2014
4
Total: 25,023 MW
Sources: i) State of Industry Report 2013, NEPRA
ii) Newspaper information.
Electricity Generation Mix 2013
5
Total: 98.9 TWh
Source: State of Industry Report 2013, NEPRA
Nuclear Power (Operational)
6
KANUPP
C-1
C-2
Contractor
CGE (Canada)
CNNC (China)
CNNC (China)
Capacity (Gross)
137/100 MW
325 MW
325 MW
Start of Construction
Aug 1966
Aug 1993
Dec 2005
Commercial Operation
Dec 1972
Sep 2000
May 2011
Nuclear Power (Under Construction)
7
Pressurized Water Reactors, 2x340 MW
Contractor
C-3
C-4
CNNC (China)
CNNC (China)
Contract Signing
20 Nov 2008
20 Nov 2008
Contract Effective Date
31 Mar 2010
31 Mar 2010
Groundbreaking
5 Aug 2010
1 Apr 2011
First Concrete Pouring
4 Mar 2011
18 Dec 2011
IAEA Safeguards Approval
8 Mar 2011
8 Mar 2011
Dec 2016
Oct 2017
Commercial Operation
(as per contract)
Peak Demand Forecast (Regression Analysis 2011)
8
(MW)
Fiscal Year
Low
Medium
High
2009-10
20,223
20,223
20,223
2014-15
27,867
29,414
31,733
2019-20
38,739
45,398
50,363
2024-25
54,694
68,736
79,021
2029-30
74,525
97,524
117,110
2034-35
100,510
134,814
169,373
Source:
Electricity Demand Forecast based on Regression Analysis (Period 2011 to 2035), Office of
G.M. Planning Power NTDC/PEPCO WAPDA House Lahore, February 2011
Options available for Power Generation
9
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Hydro (Potential =55,000 MW; Already exploited =7,500 MW)
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Gas-fired (Gas insufficient to meet current requirements)
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Nuclear (Target of 8,800 MW installed capacity by 2030)
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Wind (Potential =~50,000 MW)
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Solar (Potential high; techno-economic issues)
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Oil-fired (Small reserves; expensive option)
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Coal (Resource ~ 186 billion tonnes; 98% of the resource is lignite
with more than 40% moisture)
9
Main Financial Assumptions for Future Plants
(Country Specific)
10
Discount Rate (State Bank of Pakistan’s Discount Rate)
= 10%
Interest Rate Local Loan (SBP rate + 2% spread)
= 12.0%
Return on Equity (Offered to Thermal Plants)
= 16%
Debt Equity Ratio
= 80 : 20
Export Credit
(at 3.90% p.a., CIRR for NPPs)
= 85% of
Contractor FE Cost
Average Electricity Sale Price (2012-13)
= Cents 12.0/kWh
(Different tariff for different electricity consumers. Sale price is lower than
generation cost different is provides by the Government as subsidy)
Average Electricity Generation Cost IPPs (2012-13) = Cents 14.9/kWh
Average Electricity Generation Cost Thermal Plants = Cents13.9/kWh
(2012-13)
Interest during Construction (IDC)
= Capitalized
10
Future Nuclear Power Plants
(Plant Specific)
11
Plant Size
=
1000 MW
Construction Starts
=
2015
Construction Period
=
7 Years
Commissioning Year
=
2022
Plant Capacity Factor
=
85% (Gen III+ )
Overnight Investment Cost
=
US $ 4,389/kW in 2015
Phasing of Investment Cost
=
7%, 13%, 20%, 22%, 16%, 13%, 9%
Contractor Share in Cost
=
85% (FE : 80%, LC : 20%)
Owner Share in Cost
=
15% (FE : 10%, LC : 90%)
Plant Life
=
40 Years
Fuel Cost
=
0.64 Cents/kWh
O & M Cost (including
Decommissioning & Waste Disposal)
=
0.70 Cents/kWh
Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific
11
Future Coal-fired Power Plants
(Plant Specific)
12
Plant Size
= 1000 MW
Construction Starts
= 2018
Construction Period
= 4 Years
Commissioning Year
= 2022
Plant Capacity Factor
= 80%
Overnight Investment Cost (Brown Coal )
= US $ 2,704/kW in 2018
Phasing of Investment Cost
= 33%, 33%, 14%, 20%
Contractor Share in Cost
= 70% (FE : 80%, LC : 20%)
Owner Share in Cost
= 30% (FE : 10%, LC : 90%)
Plant Life
= 30 Years
Plant Thermal Efficiency
= 40%
Fuel Cost (Imported Coal)
= US $ 129/ton
Fuel Cost (Local Coal)
= US $ 103/ton
O & M Cost
= 0.60 Cents/kWh
12
Comparison of Levelized Electricity Generation Cost
13
Upfront Tariff by NEPRA
Upfront Tariff by
NEPRA
All Cost and Revenues are in Constant Dollars
Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific
13
Comparison of Nuclear Electricity with Alternate Options
(INPRO : UR1, Cost of Energy)
14
Plant Type
(Units)
Overnight Cost
LEGC
($/kW)
(Cents/kWh)
NPP
4,389
11.02
Coal (Local)
2,704
10.61
Coal (Imported)
2,704
11.57
UR1
AL1.1
LEGC of
Nuclear is
comparable
Notes: 1. Government has set a target of 8800 MW installed capacity of nuclear by 2030.
2. Till now government is the only investor in Nuclear Energy.
Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific
14
Comparison of Nuclear Electricity with Alternate Options
(INPRO : UR2, Ability to Finance)
15
UR2
UR2
AL2.1.1
IRR less
than
Alternate
Plant Type
IRR
ROI
NPV
(Units)
(%)
(%)
($ M)
12.91
0.207
1,116
NPP
AL2.1.2
ROI better
than
Alternate
UR2
Coal (Local)
16.55
0.106
1,265
Coal
(Imported)
15.15
0.106
967
AL2.1.3
NPV is
Comparable
Notes:
1. Average sale price of electricity was US Cents 10.2/kWh in 2012-13.
2. As sale price is subsidized by the Government, so estimated average generation cost of
thermal power plants (US Cents 13.9/kWh in 2012-13) is used for analysis.
Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific
Thank You