The German „Energiewende“ –
a viable path toward a sustainable low
carbon energy future?
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß
8th International School on Nuclear Power
26.-30. October, Warzaw, Poland
11
1
„Energiewende“ - Policy
●
The long-term vision – the age of renewable to be achieved in 2050:
renewable energy should become the main source of energy supply
●
Energy consumption to be reduced significantly by boosting energy
efficiency
 A transition to a reliable, economical and environmentally compatible
energy system in 2050
●
The transition is to be achieved by a market-based energy policy –
social market economy the framework to realize the „Energiewende“
2
„Energiewende“ - Concept
About 30 quantitative targets, among others
●
Reduction of greenhouse gases: 40% by 2020, 55% by 2030 and
80% to 95% by 2050
●
Share of renewable energy sources in gross final electricity
consumption: 35% by 2020, 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050
●
Share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy
consumption: 18% by 2020, 30% by 2030 and 60% by 2050
●
Reduction of primary energy consumption: 20% by 2020 and 50% by
2050
●
Reduction of electricity consumption: 10% by 2020 and 25% by 2050
●
Phase-out of nuclear power by 2022
3
Phase out of nuclear plants in Germany
2011
Energiewende
2011
Nuclear
Capacity
Energiekonzept 2010
shutdown:
2019
2019
Isar 1
Neckarwestheim 1
Philippsburg 1
2020
Unterweser
2020
 2011 8,4 GW
Biblis A
2021
Biblis B
2021
Brunsbüttel
2021
 2015 – 2022 12,5 GW
2034
Krümmel
Grafenrheinfeld
Gundremmingen B
Philippsburg 2
2028
2015
2017
2031
2019
2032
Gundremmingen C
2021
2032
Grohnde
2021
2032
Brokdorf
2021
2032
Isar 2
2022
Neckarwestheim 2
2022
Emsland
2022
2010
2015
2032
2035
2036
2020
2025
44
2030
2035
2040
4
„Energiewende“ – Where do we stand?
●
Achievements and impacts of the „Energiewende“ policy so far
– Focus on the power sector
Quelle: AGEE-Stat, BMWI
5
Renewable energy share in…
gross-electricity consumption
Targets:
final energy consumption
Targets:
Quelle: Eurostat, BMWi
6
The german power system 2014
Installed capacity [GW]
38,1
PV
35,7
Wind
28,4
8,2
5,6
Biomass
Hydro
18,5
32,8
51,4
27,9
21
12,1
Gas
Hardcoal
Lignite
Nuclear
33,2
53,9
91,8
99,0
140,9
electricity generation [TWh]
7
990
Development of energy related CO2 emissions
Target 2020:
-40%
Targets
466
444
327
308
Others
271
327
335
366
594
443
326
372
448
470
315
315
479
333
643
752
793
769
763
785
812
840
513
546
624
Mio. t CO2
881
2014: -24%
electricity generation
Quelle: Umweltbundesamt, Projektionsbericht der Bundesregierung, Energiereferenzprognose von EWI/Prognos/GWS, eigene Berechnungen
8
CO2-abatement costs of renewable electricity
generation in Germany 2013
●
High abatement costs
●
No additional CO2
reduction under the ETS
cap
●
But impact on the CO2
certificate prices
425
171
90
2013
CO2 certificate price 2013
(EU-emission allowance)
~ 4,5 €/t CO2
9
CO2 emissions in Europe: selected countries (2012)
CO2-emissions per capita [t/capita]
9,2
Energy related CO2 emissions per capita
CO2 emissions in electricity generation per capita
7,6
6,9
5,2
5,1
4,2
3,6
3,2
2,3
0,2
Germany
Poland
EU-28
Switzerland
0,6
0,2
France
Sweden
Quelle: IEA: CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (2014 edition)
10
28,84
29,14
25,23
25,89
9,67
11,30
11,59
14,29
15,13
14,02
13,93
14,30
14,55
14,01
23,69
Erzeugung, Transport,
Vertrieb
Quelle: BDEW
●
Industry [ct/kWh]
Household [ct/kWh]
Generation, grid, marketing
CO2-Emissionen je Einwo
CO2-Emissionen je Einwohner
[t/capita]
Significant increases in electricity prices
15,11
15,28
5,35
7,26
8,37
8,98
7,85
6,91
14,04
14,33
3,44
5,21
8,63
8,83
12,07
Taxes and duties
Price increases are to a large extent due to increased EEG surcharges
(levy for renewable generation)
2 ct/kWh (2010) to 6,24 ct/kWh (2014)
11
Financial support (subsidies) to renewable electricity
production under the Renewable Energy Source Act (EEG)
Support until 2014: ~ 106 billion €
Future funding of existing capacities: ~ 300 billion €
22 000
20 000
[Mio. €]
18 000
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
Hydro
Wind offshore
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind onshore
Photovoltaic
Source: BDEW 2015
12
Increasing retail-, but declining wholesale
electricity prices
Reasons for declining
wholesale eletricity prices:
●
Falling coal prices
●
CO2 price dropped, partly
due to the increased
renewable electricity
production
●
Merit-Order-effect of
increasing production of
renewables
13
System effects of variable/ intermittent renewables
Variable renewables with nearly zero
marginal costs replace technologies with
higher marginal costs. This means
●
Reductions in electricity produced by
dispatchable power plants (lower load
factors, compression effect)
●
Reduction in the average electricity
price on wholesale power markets
●
Together this means declining profitability for existing plants especially for gas
●
Lower economical incentives to build new power plants
●
Security of supply risks as fossil pants close
Increased doubts about the ability of competitve electricity markets to deliver adequate
levels of investment and security of supply
New market design: capacity mechanisms, capacity markets
Source: NEA/OECD
14
Some interim conclusions...
The „Energiewende“ policy in the power sector …
• significantly increased electricity prices for the consumer
and the cost of the electricity system
• is not likely to reach the climate target in 2020
• has led to declining profitability of dispatchable power
plants and premature capacity retirements
What are the prospects for the future?
15
System Effects and System Costs I
●
Discussing the economic aspects of a power system with an
increasing share of variable renewables has to take into account the
system effects and the system (integration costs) of the power
generation technologies, especially those of intermittent renewables
●
System (Integration) costs are the costs above plant-level to supply
electricity at a given load and given level of security of supply
Matching supply and demand
Grid cost
− Balancing cost
− Grid connection
− Flexibility cost
− Grid-extension and reinforcement
− Back-up cost (adequacy)
16
System Effects and System Costs II
●
All power technologies cause system effects and have
system (integration) costs
●
For variable renewables the system (integration) costs are higher
than for dispatchable technologies, due to their:
●

intermittent production profile

low capacity credit
Due to the high auto-correlated production of wind or PV system
(integration) costs increase with the share of their production
(penetration level)
●
System (integration) costs are technology as well as system specific
17
Necessary transmission-grid extension until 2022
●
Grid extension:
i.
AC-lines: 1,700 km
ii. Additional AC-circuits: 2,800 km
iii. Upgrading of AC-circuits: 1,300 km
iv. DC-lines: 2,100 km
●
Investment: 20 billion €
●
Szenario 2022:
i.
Wind offshore: 13.0 GW
ii. Wind onshore: 47.5 GW
iii. Photovoltaics: 54.0 GW
iv. Share of renewable energies in
electricity generation: 50 %
Source: TSOs, Netzentwicklungsplan , 2012
18
installed capacity [GW]
Structure of the electricity network and connection
of renewable energies
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
connection of renewable energies 2010:
380/220 kV
Transmission
network
biomass
110 kV
20 kV
0.4 kV
Distribution network
gas
pv
running water
wind
Source: TSOs, EEG-Anlagenstammdaten, 2011
Quelle: BMWi
19
Distribution-grid extension
●
Grid extension 2020
(2030):
i.
NS: 44.746 km
(51.563 km)
ii.
MS: 42.855 km
(72.051 km)
iii. HS: 6.173 km
(11.094 km)
iv. Transformers MS/NS:
6.876 MVA
(16.036 MVA)
v.
Transformers HS/MS:
49.655 MVA
(53.159 MVA)
Investment: 18,4 Mrd. € (27,5 Mrd. €)
●
●
Installed capacity:
i.
Wind: 44,1 GW
(61,1 GW)
ii.
Photovoltaik: 48,0 GW
(62,8 GW)
ICT-Technology Investment:
ca. 2 Mrd. €
(7 Mrd. €)
Quellen: Dena-Verteilnetzstudie, Verband kommunaler Unternehmen
20
System(integration)costs : 30% penetration level
Germany
System(integration)costs (USD/MWh)*
Technology
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
On-shore
wind
Offshore
wind
Solar
Back-up Costs (Adequacy)
0,00
0,04
0,00
8,84
8,84
19,71
Balancing Costs
0,35
0,00
0,00
6,41
6,41
6,41
Grid Connection
1,90
0,93
0,54
6,37
15,71
9,44
Grid Reinforcement and
Extension
0,00
0,00
0,00
22,23
11,89
47,40
Total Grid-Level System
Costs
2,25
0,97
0,54
43,85
42,85
82,95
* Penetration level 30%
Quelle: NEA/OECD
21
System(integration)costs as a function of the final
electricity share of wind power
25
System costs of different technologies
Discount Rate 7 % , Carbon price 45 €/ton CO2
250
System (integration) cost 1)
Systemintegr.-Kosten
[€/MWh]
200
Generation cost (LCOE)
Erzeugungskosten
150
100
50
LZV
0
Nuclear
1)
Hard Coal Gas (CCGT)
30% penetration level
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Offshore
PV Large
PV
Residential
 Wind and PV are not becoming competitive
23
Low-carbon electricity system- a case study for Germany
●
A model based comparative analysis of low carbon electricity systems
80% CO2 emissions (compared to 1990)
●
Low-carbon option considered: Renewables, Nuclear and Coal CCS
●
Electricity Demand 450 TWh/a
●
Flexibilty Options: Storage, Curtailment, DSI
●
No export or import possibilities to neighbouring countries
●
Electricity Market Model E2M2s used
─ minimize total system costs
─ hourly time resolution
24
Demand and residual load
[GW]
Demand load and residual load - 80 % share of RES
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Demand load
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Hour [h]
6 000
Residual load
7 000
8 000
●
Excess renewable power up to 78 GW
●
Renewable surplus production ~ 43 TWh, about 13 % of the electricity
production by wind and photovoltaics
●
Storage capacity requirement ~ 6,4 TWh
25
Power system portfolio and electricity generation
80% CO2-reduction (compared to 1990 level)
Electricity generation [TWhel]
Capacity [GWel]
250
200
150
100
50
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
no
with
no
with
nuclear nuclear nuclear nuclear
no
with
no
with
nuclear nuclear nuclear nuclear
80 % Renewables no Wind and PV
80 % Renewables no Wind and PV
26
80
without costs of existing grid
Annual total system costs [bn. €2015]
Total system costs of electricity provision
Ø Costs of electricity provision [€/MWh]
163
160
90
79
70
60
50
CAPEX Conventional
40
OPEX Conventional
30
CAPEX Renewables
OPEX Renewables
20
Grid
10
Flexibility
0
no nuclear with nuclear no nuclear with nuclear
80% Renewables
no Wind and PV
27
Concluding remarks
• The transformation of the electricity system to a renewable
energy based supply, as envisaged by the „Energiewende“
policy, will be at least very costly and cannot be considered
a sustainable road map to a low-carbon, secure,
competitive, and affordable electricity system in Germany
• Due to the high system costs of variable renewables their
further deployment cannot be achieved by competitive
electricity markets – a central planning framework is
required
28
Thank you for your
attention!
Prof. Dr.-Ing. A. Voß – alfred.voss@ier.uni-stuttgart.de
Photo 29
credits:
© GDF Suez/Electrabel