Adapting MOVES to Mexico
John Koupal, Allison DenBleyker, Scott Fincher, Doug Jackson, Sandeep Kishan
Eastern Research Group
Contact: john.koupal@erg.com
Transportation Research Board
Transportation & Air Quality Committee (ADC20) Meeting
January 13, 2016
Acknowledgements
Sponsors:
 Maricopa Association of Governments
 Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
 USAID Mexico Low Emissions Development Program
Contributors:
 Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC)
 Verónica Garibay Bravo, ORG+CO
 Marty Wolf, ERG
 Kate Blumberg, ICCT
 Michael Tschantz, MeadWestvaco
Applying MOVES outside the U.S.
MOVES framework designed for customization
 Idea of applying MOVES internationally has been published &
presented in several forums since release of MOVES2010:

–
–
–
–
International Transport & Air Pollution Conference (Europe)
International Workshop on Emission Models (China)
MOVES training for Beijing municipal government
Tongji University: application of MOVES for project-level analysis in
Shanghai, including emission rate mapping
•
Liu, H.; Wang, Y.; Chen, X.; Han, S. Vehicle Emission and Near-Road Air Quality Modeling in
Shanghai, China Based on Taxi GPS Data and MOVES Revised Emission Inventory, TRB Paper No. 134733, 2013
– UTEP: application of MOVES in Juarez, Mexico
•

Yang, H.; Gonzalez-Ayala, S.; Tarin, G.; Li, W.; Pinal, G.; Valenzuela, V. Development of MOVESMexico Stage I: Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua and Uncertainty Quantification, Proceedings of 20th
International Emission Inventory Conference, 2012
Until now, MOVES has not been adapted wholesale to another
country
MOVES-Mexico Evolution


Developed over three separate projects
Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG)
– Summer day inventories for northern Mexico in 2011 & 2017
– Did limited adaptation of MOVES to Canada too

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)
– Support for Gulf of Mexico emissions and air quality assessment
– Annual inventories for 2012, including PM (partial Mexico)

USAID Mexico Low Emission Development Program (MLED)
– Expand model to entire country
• 31 states + Federal District
• 2,438 municipios
– Update emission rates based on Mexico RSD data
– Technical report & users manual
– Training in Mexico City – February 2016

Significant technical support from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de
Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC)
Approach

Develop MOVES-Mexico at National Scale
– Produce a complete default Mexico database, replacing
current U.S.-based database
– Allows estimates for each municipio and state, across all
years MOVES covers, without requiring data from the user
– Provides foundation for more detailed County and Project
scale analyses for modelers in Mexico
– Database works directly with U.S. MOVES2014a software
Use Mexico-specific data where available
Fill in with U.S. defaults to complete database
Develop Mexico emission rates based on emissions
data and differences in emission standards
 Compare fuel consumption estimates to top-down
production and sales data in Mexico



Replacing U.S. states/counties
with Mexico states/municipios
Available Data
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VKT per vehicle, age
Vehicle population by vehicle class, age, state
Vehicle population forecasts & backcasts
Road network GIS files  onroad activity allocation by municipio
Human population  start/park activity allocation by municipio
Fuel consumption  month VKT allocations
Fuel properties (e.g. RVP by month, sulfur, oxygenate)
I/M program parameters
Meteorology
Altitude
Emissions data (RSD)
Issues To Consider
Vehicle and roadway classification differences from U.S.
 Fuel quality differences from U.S.

– 30 ppm gasoline sulfur only in 3 major cities; mostly 300ppm elsewhere
– 15 ppm diesel sulfur only in select cities; 500ppm elsewhere

Emission standards differences from U.S.
– Current LDV comparable to U.S. Tier 0 levels through MY 2006, began
phasing in Tier 2 Bin 10 then Tier 2 Bin 7 through MY 2013
– Current HD diesel standards comparable to U.S. MY 2004 standards

U.S. and European vehicle market penetration
– Market share over time not well known

Influence of taxis
– ~15% of passenger car VKT
– RSD shows much higher emissions
Border vs. non-border vehicle fleet
 No extended idle

MOVES Tables Populated with Mexico-Specific Data
County
State
CountyYear
FuelUsageFraction
Year
IMCoverage
Link
FuelSupply
HPMSVTypeYear
SourceTypeYear
SourceTypeAgeDistribution
AVFT
RoadTypeDistribution
MonthVMTFraction
EmissionRateByAge (partial)
EmissionRate (partial)
FuelFormulation
RegionCounty
Zone
CumTVVCoeffs
EmissionProcess
HotellingCalendarYear
ZoneMonthHour
ZoneRoadType
SourceUseType
FuelType
Region
All other tables carried over from U.S. database
Vehicle Class Mapping
Mexico Vehicle Type
MOVES Source Use Type Name
Motorcycles
Passenger cars
Taxi
Motorcycle
Passenger car
97% Passenger Truck
Public transport light truck
Pickup trucks
Trucks with GVW < 3 ton
Buses
Microbus/Midibus
Trucks with GVW > 3 ton
3% Light Commercial Truck
Transit Bus
96% Single Unit Short-haul Truck
4% Single Unit Long-haul Truck
Trailer trucks
49% Combination Short-haul Truck
51% Combination Long-haul Truck
Refuse trucks, motorhomes, school buses, intercity buses not used
Road Type Mapping
MAPPING TO MOVES ROADTYPES
SAMPLE ROAD NETWORK GIS SHAPEFILE
Urban/rural split based on population density
GIS Road Type
ANDADOR (PEDESTRIAN)
AVENIDA
BOULEVARD
CALZADA
CALLE
AMPLIACION
CALLEJON
CERRADA
CIRCUITO
CIRCUNVALACION
CONTINUACION
CORREDOR
DIAGONAL
EJE VIAL
PASAJE (PEDESTRIAN)
PEATONAL (PEDESTRIAN)
PERIFERICO
PRIVADA
PROLONGACION
RETORNO
VIADUCTO
CARRETERA
MOVES Type
--UNRESTRICTED
RESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
RESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
----RESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
UNRESTRICTED
RESTRICTED
RESTRICTED
Updating Emission Rates
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Default MOVES emission factors reflect U.S. emissions
standards as a function of model year
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Mexico emissions data (RSD) used to calibrate emission
rates where available
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U.S. emission factors mapped to Mexico based on
differences in emission standards where data not
available
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Updated THC, CO, NOx, PM and Total Energy to varying
degrees (emissionRateByAge, emissionRate tables)
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Evaporative emission rates also updated
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Mapping U.S. Emission Rates
to Mexico
Example: HD Diesel Trucks
Mexico Model Year
Range
Correlated U.S.
Technology/Standard
U.S. Model Year or Bins
Applied
1980-1992
Pre-Control
1980
1993
“1991”
1992
1994-1997
“1994”
1996
1998-2008
“1998” (Electronic
Control)
“2004” (EGR)
2000
2009 and later
2004
Script developed to create EmissionRateByAge
table for Mexico based on this mapping
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Mexico Emissions Data

RSD in 24 cities
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Collected from 2008 - 2014
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Covers variety of conditions
– No IM / IM
– High sulfur / Low Sulfur
– Border / No Border
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Only LDV and LDT samples large enough to use to
develop emission rates (NO & CO only)
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Calibrating Emission Rates to RSD
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Grouped RSD data into “benchmark” cities
– No IM / 300ppm / No Border
– Mexico City (IM / 30ppm / No Border)
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Ran MOVES with U.S. rates to match conditions of the RSD
data
– IM program, sulfur, operating mode distribution
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Compared on fuel-specific basis, by model year
Developed calibration factors from this comparison
– No IM & IM, LDV & LDT, NO & CO
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Developed additional deterioration factors comparing 3 & 6
year deterioration in RSD vs. MOVES deterioration over same
period
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Mexico RSD vs. MOVES2014 U.S. (2008)
Emission rate
calibration example
25
15
Step 1: Calibrate based on 2008
comparison (all ages, op modes)
10
5
0
Step 2: Account for additional
deterioration observed in RSD
collected in later years
Model Year
RSD
MOVES
Relative 6-year Deterioration Rate (2008  2014)
Deterioration Factor
NO gram/kg fuel
20
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Model Year
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MOVES U.S.
RSD
2003
2002
2001
Next Steps

National inventory trend results 1990-2050

Package MOVES-Mexico database for distribution
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Technical Report & User Manual (translated to
Spanish)

Training in Mexico City - February 2016
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Supporting ICCT effort to evaluate air quality and
health benefits of new vehicle standards
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General Observations on
International Adaptation
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MOVES framework designed for customization
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Can focus adaptation on database, to take advantage of
existing software and user documentation
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Level of update depends on available data
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Available data needs to mapped to MOVES categories
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Emission rates can be updated based on differences in
emission standards from U.S. and available emissions
data
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