THE CNN / WMUR NH PRIMARY POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE June 25, 2015 SANDERS GAINS ON CLINTON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603-862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center DURHAM, NH –Hillary Clinton, who has held comfortable leads over all her Democratic rivals, is now in a statistical tie with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. Clinton and Sanders now enjoy identical net favorability ratings among Democratic primary voters. These findings are based on the latest CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousand and ten (1010) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between June 18 and June 24, 2015. Included were three-hundred sixty (360) likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.2), and four hundred two (402) likely 2016 Republican Primary voters (MSE = +/4.9). NH Voters Not Yet Engaged th 2016 is the 100 anniversary of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, and with more than six months remaining before the election, most voters have not yet engaged. While some of the candidates discussed in this poll will decide not to run, and others may enter who were not discussed, candidates who are the early identified frontrunners have usually won past New Hampshire primaries. New Hampshire primary voters typically decide who they will vote for in the last weeks, or days of the campaign and it is no surprise that few voters have made up their minds about who they will support in 2016. Currently, only 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they have definitely decided who they will support, 26% are leaning toward a candidate, but the majority of voters (54%) are still trying to decide who to support. NH 2016 DEM Presidential Primary -- Decided On Vote 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 82% 80% 80% 77% 69% 73% 76% 66% 54% Feb. '13 Apr. '13 July '13 Definitely Decided 80% 81% Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Feb. '15 May '15 June '15 Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, sponsored by CNN and WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Currently, 37% of likely Democratic primary voters say they are extremely interested in the election, 40% are very interested, 18% are somewhat interested and 6% are not very interested. This is similar to this point in the 2007 cycle. However, it appears that the electorate is more interested in the Republican primary than the Democratic contest. Undeclared voters, often erroneously referred to as “independents”, are much less likely to say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary than they were in 2008. Currently, 35% of undeclared voters say they plan to vote in the Republican primary, 34% plan to vote in the Democratic primary, and 31% say they will not vote in either primary or are unsure which primary they would vote in. At this time in 2007, 49% of undeclared voters said they would vote in the Democratic primary, only 24% said they planned to vote in the Republican primary, and 28% said they would not vote in either primary or were unsure which primary they would vote in. Democratic Favorability Ratings 2008 New Hampshire Primary winner Hillary Clinton remains the most popular Democratic candidate. Most likely Democratic Primary voters, 74%, have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 19% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 11% are neutral or unsure. Her net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion minus those who have an unfavorable opinion, is a +55%, her lowest rating since President Obama was inaugurated in 2013. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has enjoyed a significant increase in his net favorability ratings in recent months and he is now tied with Clinton on this measure with a net +55%, up from +34% in May. Vice President Joe Biden has solid net favorability ratings (+39%) while other Democratic challengers -- former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley (+4%), former Virginia senator Jim Webb (+2%), and former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee (-4%) and are less well known and have low net favorability ratings. Favorability Ratings - Potential DEM Presidential Candidates - June 2015 Hillary Clinton 74% Bernie Sanders 5% 66% Joe Biden 8% 63% Martin O'Malley 16% 11% Jim Webb 13% 9% Lincoln Chafee 12% 10% 0% 10% Favorable 16% 24% 2% 68% 16% 30% 2% 61% 11% 20% 11% 11% 12% 19% 61% 40% Neutral 50% 60% Unfavorable 70% DK 80% 90% 100% Clinton has been the most popular Democratic candidate over the past two years, but her net favorability has dropped from +74% to +55% since February. NH 2016 DEM Presidential Primary -- Net Favorability Ratings 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Feb. '13 Apr.'13 Jul. '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Feb. '15 May '15 June '15 Biden Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb 2016 NH Democratic Primary Trial Heat Clinton had been the clear favorite among Democratic voters when they are asked to choose from a list of prospective candidates since 2013, however, Sanders has surged in recent months. In the current CNN / WMUR Poll, 43% of likely Democratic Primary voters say they would vote for Clinton if the election were held today, 35% say they would vote for Sanders, 8% prefer Biden, 2% prefer O’Malley 1% prefer Webb, less than 1% prefer Chafee, 2% favor some other candidate, and 9% are undecided. Support for Clinton has dropped below 50% for the first time in the 2016 nomination cycle while support for Sanders increased from 13% in May. Clinton’s strongest support comes from voters with only high school degrees (60%), registered Democrats (52%), women (51%), 51 to 64 year olds (51%), and Manchester area residents (50%). Sanders strongest support comes from North Country residents (50%), liberals (48%), and voters under 35 (47%). 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NH 2016 DEM Presidential Primary -- Support If Vote Held Today Feb. '13 Apr.'13 Jul. '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Feb. '15 May '15 June '15 Biden Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb 2016 NH Democratic Primary with Second Choice While Hillary Clinton is currently the frontrunner in the Democratic field, likely Democrat Primary voters view Bernie Sanders as a viable option. When the top two choices are combined, 68% of likely primary voters favor Clinton, 53% favor Sanders and 28% favor Biden. Clinton 43% Sanders 25% 35% Biden 8% O'Malley 18% 20% 68% 53% 28% 5% Webb 2% Chafee 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1st Choice 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2nd Choice Most Unpopular Democrat Candidate Nominations typically go to candidates who are acceptable to most members of their party and not too polarizing of a figure. When asked which potential candidate they would NOT vote for under any circumstance, 11% of likely Democratic primary voters would not vote for Clinton, 6% would not vote for Biden, 6% would not vote for Sanders, 4% would not vote for Chafee, 3% would not vote for Webb, 35% think that all of the prospective candidates are acceptable, and 30% are unsure. Clinton leads on this measure of unpopularity for the first time in the 2016 cycle. NH 2016 DEM Presidential Primary -- Would Not Vote For 20% 10% 0% Feb. '13 Apr.'13 Jul. '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Feb. '15 May '15 June '15 Biden Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb Democrat Net Electability Clinton had held a wide lead in net electability (the percentage who support a candidate minus the percentage who would not vote for that candidate under any circumstances), but this has disappeared in recent months. Clinton’s net electability score is +31%, followed closely by Sanders at +29%. No other Democratic candidate has net favorability ratings above +2%. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% NH 2016 DEM Presidential Primary -- Net Electability Ratings Feb. '13 Apr.'13 Jul. '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Feb. '15 May '15 June '15 Biden Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb Most Important Issues to Primary Vote When asked what issue is the most important facing candidates in the presidential primary, 24% of likely Democrat Primary voters cite jobs or the economy, 16% cite foreign policy or national security, 8% cite social issues, 8% cite healthcare, 4% cite income inequality, 6% cite education, and 8% cite the environment. Jobs / Economy 12% 12% Foreign Policy/ National Security 4% Social Issues 8% Health Care 3% 17% 5% 8% 4% 4% Education 16% 11% 8% 8% Environmental Issues 6% 3% 6% 4% Income Inequality Campaign Finance 35% 23% 24% 0% 2% 3% 22% 22% Other / DK 0% 5% 10% Feb. '15 15% May '15 20% 25% June '15 31% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Candidate Qualities Voters were asked which candidate most exhibits several candidate qualities. Clinton gets higher ratings for leadership and appearing presidential but voters think Sanders has greater empathy for them. A majority of likely primary voters (56%) view Hillary Clinton as being the strongest leader, 38% think she has the personal characteristics and qualities to be president, 30% believe she has the best represents Democrats like themselves, and 28% think she is the least honest candidate. A plurality (45%) chose Bernie Sanders as the candidate who most cares about people like them and 41% think Sanders best represents Democrats like them. Strongest Leader Least Honest 8% 5% Best Represents Democrats Like Yourself 7% Cares the Most About People Like You 8% Has Personal Characteristics and Qualities You Think a President Should Have Chafee 21% 60% 30% 41% 24% 19% 45% 21% 38% 20% Clinton 13% 28% 12% 0% Biden 56% 27% 40% O'Malley Sanders 60% 19% 80% Webb 100% Don't Know Likely Democratic Primary voters were next asked which candidate is best able to handle several top issues. For most issues, Clinton is viewed as the candidate best able to handle that issue – 55% think she is best able to handle international trade issues, 45% think she can best handle terrorism, 43% think she is best on health care policy, and 38% think she is best able to handle the economy. However, a plurality (36%) think Sanders is best able to deal with big banks and corporations. Best to Handle the Economy 6% Best to Handle Terrorism 12% Best to Handle International Trade Policy 11% Best to Handle Health Care Policy Clinton 22% 11% 55% 27% 31% 20% O'Malley 26% 14% 43% 11% 0% Chafee 28% 45% 6% Best to Deal with Big Banks and Corporations Biden 38% 20% 36% 40% Sanders 60% Webb 17% 16% 80% Don't Know 100% CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousand and ten (1010) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by live interviewers in English on landline and cellular telephones between June 18 and June 24, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is +/- 3.1 percent. Included were three-hundred sixty (360) likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.2), and four hundred two (402) likely 2016 Republican Primary voters (MSE = +/-4.9 The random sample used in the CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll was purchased from Scientific Telephone Samples (STS), Foothill Ranch, CA. STS screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, age, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. For more information about the methodology used in the CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by email at andrew.smith@unh.edu. CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, June 2015 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Demographics Sex Male Female N 147 213 % 41% 59% 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and Over N 90 92 92 76 % 26% 26% 26% 22% Highest Level of Education High School or Less Some College College Graduate Post-Graduate N 37 73 140 110 % 10% 20% 39% 31% Age Region N 24 66 76 71 70 54 % 7% 18% 21% 20% 19% 15% Party Registration Democrat Undeclared Republican N 174 161 0 % 52% 48% 0% Party Identification Democrat Independent Republican N 313 31 13 % 88% 9% 3% North Country Central/Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area Decided Who to Vote for in 2016 DEM Primary? (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters) “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?” June ‘15 Definitely Decided 20% Leaning Toward Someone 26% Still Trying To Decide 54% May ‘15 Feb. ‘15 10% 7% 24% 16% 66% 76% (N) (359) (227) (298) Oct. ‘14 July ‘14 Apr. ‘14 Jan. ‘14 Oct. ‘13 July ‘13 Apr. ‘13 Feb. ‘13 17% 13% 7% 13% 10% 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 13% 18% 9% 12% 13% 10% 73% 77% 80% 69% 81% 80% 80% 82% (227) (252) (180) (202) (245) (187) (185) (193) Democratic Nomination in 2016 NH Primary (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters) "I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Democratic nomination. If the Democratic primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination Joe Biden … Lincoln Chafee … Hillary Clinton … Martin O’Malley … Bernie Sanders … Jim Webb or someone else?” ROTATE CANDIDATES Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Martin O’Malley Jim Webb Lincoln Chafee Elizabeth Warren Andrew Cuomo Mark Warner Brian Schweitzer Kirsten Gillibrand Deval Patrick Cory Booker Evan Bayh John Hickenlooper Antonio Villaraigosa Someone Else Don’t Know Yet (N) Feb. ‘13 Apr. ‘13 July ‘13 Oct. ‘13 Jan. ‘14 Apr. ‘14 July ‘14 Oct. ‘14 Feb. ‘15 May ‘15 June ‘15 63% --10% * ------5% * 1% --1% 2% 1% * * 1% 16% (195) 61% --7% * ------3% 2% * --3% 1% 1% * * 2% 22% (185) 62% --8% 0% ------1% 0% --* 5% 2% * * --2% 19% (187) 64% --6% * ----6% 2% * --0% 1% * * 0% --2% 18% (248) 74% --10% * ------2% 1% * 0% ----------2% 10% (201) 65% --6% 0% ------4% 2% 0% ------------5% 18% (182) 59% 5% 14% 0% ----8% 3% 1% 0% ------------1% 9% (255) 58% 3% 3% 3% ----18% 1% * --------------1% 13% (228) 58% 6% 8% 1% 1% --14% 2% ----------------1% 9% (295) 51% 13% 2% 1% 1% 1% 20% 3% ----------------* 8% (224) 43% 35% 8% 2% 1% * --------------------2% 9% (353) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included Second Choice in 2016 NH Democratic Primary (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters) “If ___________ was not running, who would be your second choice?” Apr. ‘14 July ‘14 Oct. ‘14 Feb. ‘15 May ‘15 June ‘15 5% 24% --2% ------14% 5% 1% 2% 24% 23% (182) 17% 23% 5% * ----19% 6% 1% 2% * 12% 15% (257) 10% 21% 4% * ----21% 5% 1% --2% 23% 12% (224) 18% 21% 4% 2% --3% 23% 8% ----1% * 18% (268) 15% 18% 11% 1% 1% 2% 23% 8% ----2% 1% 17% (205) 25% 20% 18% 3% 2% 1% --------3% 2% 26% (322) Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Jim Webb Elizabeth Warren Andrew Cuomo Mark Warner Brian Schweitzer Someone Else No Second Choice Don’t Know Yet (N) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included Candidate You Wouldn’t Vote For In 2016 NH Democratic Primary (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters) “Which of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Democratic nomination would you NOT vote for under any circumstance?” Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Lincoln Chafee Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Andrew Cuomo Elizabeth Warren Mark Warner Brian Schweitzer Kirsten Gillibrand Deval Patrick John Hickenlooper Cory Booker Evan Bayh Antonio Villaraigosa Someone Else All OK Don’t Know Yet (N) Feb. ‘13 Apr. ‘13 July ‘13 Oct. ‘13 Jan. ‘14 Apr. ‘14 July ‘14 Oct. ‘14 Feb. ‘15 May ‘15 June ‘15 4% 7% ------* 3% --2% 1% --6% * 2% 3% 2% 2% 34% 34% (200) 4% 7% ------* 2% --3% 1% --3% 1% * 4% 3% 1% 33% 38% (188) 3% 10% ------* 4% --2% --* 3% * * 3% --3% 26% 46% (185) 4% 12% ------0% 6% 2% * --* 3% 2% 2% * --1% 37% 30% (248) 5% 16% ------* 3% --3% 3% 3% ----------1% 28% 37% (201) 7% 16% ------4% 5% --2% 1% ------------1% 32% 33% (183) 5% 9% 2% ----* 9% 2% 1% 3% ------------2% 29% 38% (254) 3% 13% 4% ----2% 7% 2% 3% --------------1% 35% 31% (226) 6% 13% 3% --4% 1% 7% 4% ----------------* 32% 29% (293) 8% 13% 3% 2% 2% 1% 8% 1% ----------------0% 24% 39% (218) 11% 6% 6% 4% 3% 1% --------------------3% 35% 30% (355) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included Most Important Issue To Primary Vote (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters) “There are many issues facing the candidates in the election for president. In your opinion, which one issue is MOST IMPORTANT to YOUR VOTE in the presidential primary?” Feb. ‘15 35% 12% 4% 17% 5% 4% 3% 0% 22% (285) Jobs/Economy Foreign Policy/National Security Social Issues Health Care Environment/Climate Change Education Income Inequality Campaign Finance Other/Don’t Know (N) May ‘15 23% 12% 11% 8% 3% 4% 6% 2% 31% (213) June ‘15 24% 16% 8% 8% 8% 6% 4% 3% 22% (351) Candidate Characteristics (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters) “Which Democratic candidate do you think is the strongest leader?” Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Martin O’Malley Jim Webb Lincoln Chafee Elizabeth Warren Andrew Cuomo Someone Else Don’t Know (N) Feb. ‘15 May ‘15 June ‘15 58% 2% 11% 0% * --8% 3% 0% 18% (298) 55% 3% 6% * 1% * 5% 7% 0% 23% (224) 56% 13% 8% 1% * 0% ----1% 21% (358) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think is least honest?” Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Lincoln Chafee Bernie Sanders Martin O’Malley Jim Webb Elizabeth Warren Andrew Cuomo Someone Else Don’t Know (N) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included May ‘15 22% 4% 1% 1% 0% * 0% 10% 0% 62% (217) June ‘15 28% 5% 3% 2% 2% * ----1% 60% (346) “Which Democratic candidate do you think best represents the values of Democrats like yourself?” Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Elizabeth Warren Andrew Cuomo Someone Else Don’t Know (N) Feb. ‘15 May ‘15 June ‘15 7% 43% 7% 1% 1% --23% 2% 0% 15% (298) 13% 38% 3% 1% 1% 0% 22% 1% 1% 20% (224) 41% 30% 7% 1% 1% 1% ----1% 19% (356) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think cares the most about people like you?” Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) June ‘15 45% 24% 8% 1% 1% 0% 1% 21% (355) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think has the personal characteristics and qualities that you think a President should have?” June ‘15 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Martin O’Malley Jim Webb Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) 38% 27% 12% 2% 1% * 1% 19% (351) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think can best handle the economy?” June ‘15 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) 37% 28% 6% 2% 2% 1% 2% 22% (357) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think do you think can best handle terrorism?” Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) June ‘15 45% 12% 11% 1% 1% 0% 3% 25% (357) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think can best handle international trade policy?” June ‘15 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Martin O’Malley Jim Webb Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) 55% 14% 11% 1% * * 1% 17% (357) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think can best handle health care policy?” June ‘15 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) 43% 27% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1% 20% (357) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included “Which Democratic candidate do you think can best deal with big banks and corporations?” June ‘15 36% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Jim Webb Martin O’Malley Lincoln Chafee Someone Else Don’t Know (N) 31% 11% 1% 2% 1% 2% 16% (358) * = Less than 1% --- = Not Included DEM Favorability Ratings (Likely DEM Primary Voters) "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some DEMOCRAT who are running or may run for President in 2016. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her." “Vice President Joe Biden?” June ‘15 May ‘15 Feb. ‘15 Oct. ‘14 July ‘14 Apr. ‘14 Jan. ‘14 Oct. ‘13 July ‘13 Apr. ‘13 Feb. ‘13 Favorable 63% 57% 53% 59% 67% 53% 53% 54% 61% 64% 73% Neutral 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 5% 12% 9% 5% 9% 4% Unfavorable 24% 26% 30% 27% 20% 37% 27% 31% 30% 25% 22% Don’t Know 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% 5% 8% 6% 3% 2% 1% Net +39% +31% +23% +32% +47% +16% +26% +23% +31% +39% +51% (N) (357) (229) (297) (231) (257) (184) (205) (252) (190) (188) (201) “Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee?” June ‘15 May ‘15 Favorable 12% 8% Neutral 10% 21% Unfavorable 16% 10% Don’t Know 61% 61% Net -4% -2% (N) (357) (230) Unfavorable 19% 15% 9% 10% 9% 11% 8% 8% 13% 5% 7% Don’t Know 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 3% 1% 3% 1% Net +55% +58% +74% +74% +78% +67% +80% +76% +72% +83% +80% (N) (357) (230) (297) (234) (257) (184) (205) (250) (190) (188) (201) Neutral 11% 22% 8% 4% 2% 4% 10% 4% 9% 7% 4% Unfavorable 12% 10% 6% 4% 8% 5% 8% 7% 5% 5% 6% Don’t Know 61% 58% 75% 83% 80% 81% 73% 85% 79% 79% 80% Net +4% 0% +5% +4% +1% +5% +1% -2% +3% +3% +3% (N) (357) (230) (297) (234) (257) (184) (205) (252) (190) (188) (201) Neutral 8% 16% 9% 7% 2% Unfavorable 11% 11% 10% 9% 10% Don’t Know 16% 28% 37% 45% 51% Net +55% +34% +34% +30% +27% (N) (357) (230) (297) (234) (257) Neutral 9% 19% 12% Unfavorable 11% 12% 9% Don’t Know 68% 58% 70% Net +2% 0% 0% (N) (357) (230) (297) “Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?” June ‘15 May ‘15 Feb. ‘15 Oct. ‘14 July ‘14 Apr. ‘14 Jan. ‘14 Oct. ‘13 July ‘13 Apr. ‘13 Feb. ‘13 Favorable 74% 73% 83% 84% 87% 78% 88% 84% 85% 88% 87% Neutral 5% 11% 6% 5% 3% 8% 3% 5% 1% 4% 5% “Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley?” June ‘15 May ‘15 Feb. ‘15 Oct. ‘14 July ‘14 Apr. ‘14 Jan. ‘14 Oct. ‘13 July ‘13 Apr. ‘13 Feb. ‘13 Favorable 16% 10% 11% 8% 9% 10% 9% 5% 8% 8% 9% “Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders?” June ‘15 May ‘15 Feb. ‘15 Oct. ‘14 July ‘14 Favorable 66% 45% 44% 39% 37% “Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb?” June ‘15 May ‘15 Feb. ‘15 Favorable 13% 12% 9% Favorability Rating – Joe Biden (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Favorable 63% Neutral 11% Unfavorable 24% Don’t Know 2% (N) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 66% 61% 8% 11% 23% 27% 2% 1% 174 158 Democrat Independent Republican 67% 49% 24% 10% 23% 14% 22% 23% 61% 1% 5% 0% 310 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 76% 54% 51% 5% 15% 9% 20% 28% 39% 0% 3% 1% 170 151 20 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 63% 64% 10% 14% 26% 21% 2% 1% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 64% 58% 11% 14% 24% 25% 1% 3% 296 61 Union household Non-union 58% 65% 9% 10% 32% 23% 0% 2% 67 277 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 63% 69% 68% 59% 64% 13% 12% 12% 12% 7% 25% 18% 18% 27% 28% 0% 2% 1% 3% 1% 63 72 142 177 190 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 58% 64% 59% 74% 16% 11% 11% 8% 25% 26% 26% 17% 1% 0% 4% 1% 86 92 92 76 Male Female 63% 63% 10% 12% 27% 22% 0% 2% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 57% 58% 63% 68% 19% 8% 13% 9% 25% 29% 24% 22% 0% 5% 0% 1% 37 70 140 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 67% 51% 57% 68% 12% 4% 14% 10% 19% 45% 26% 21% 2% 0% 3% 1% 59 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 62% 72% 58% 56% 65% 67% 7% 14% 8% 19% 9% 8% 31% 13% 32% 25% 24% 23% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 3% 24 62 76 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 67% 59% 10% 12% 21% 27% 2% 1% 169 188 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Favorability Rating – Lincoln Chafee (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Favorable 12% Neutral 10% Unfavorable 16% Don’t Know 61% (N) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 11% 14% 9% 13% 18% 15% 62% 58% 174 158 Democrat Independent Republican 13% 11% 0% 9% 30% 2% 15% 16% 29% 63% 43% 69% 310 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 11% 16% 8% 12% 11% 2% 15% 14% 26% 63% 59% 63% 170 151 20 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 14% 8% 10% 12% 16% 14% 60% 66% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 15% 1% 10% 10% 15% 20% 60% 69% 296 61 Union household Non-union 14% 12% 7% 10% 17% 16% 62% 61% 67 277 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 27% 19% 13% 11% 17% 5% 13% 12% 7% 16% 19% 20% 16% 15% 17% 48% 48% 58% 66% 50% 63 72 142 177 190 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 3% 16% 15% 18% 15% 11% 6% 10% 3% 15% 23% 21% 80% 59% 56% 51% 86 92 92 76 Male Female 15% 10% 15% 7% 19% 14% 51% 69% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 0% 11% 18% 11% 15% 11% 9% 9% 13% 20% 12% 19% 72% 58% 61% 61% 37 70 140 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 13% 18% 9% 12% 10% 14% 6% 13% 11% 11% 19% 16% 66% 57% 66% 59% 59 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 26% 12% 7% 21% 11% 6% 3% 6% 22% 8% 11% 4% 21% 14% 18% 17% 14% 13% 51% 69% 54% 53% 63% 76% 24 62 76 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 11% 14% 9% 12% 15% 17% 66% 58% 169 188 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Favorability Rating – Hillary Clinton (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Favorable 74% Neutral 5% Unfavorable 19% Don’t Know 2% (N) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 81% 67% 5% 4% 14% 24% 0% 4% 174 158 Democrat Independent Republican 78% 56% 15% 5% 4% 0% 15% 40% 85% 2% 0% 0% 310 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 87% 63% 60% 4% 7% 0% 9% 26% 29% 0% 3% 12% 170 151 20 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 77% 63% 6% 2% 14% 33% 2% 2% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 76% 64% 6% 2% 17% 30% 2% 4% 296 61 Union household Non-union 73% 76% 5% 5% 18% 17% 3% 2% 67 277 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 79% 78% 75% 77% 72% 2% 4% 7% 8% 2% 19% 17% 18% 15% 22% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4% 63 72 142 177 190 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 66% 68% 79% 83% 3% 3% 9% 6% 31% 23% 12% 10% 0% 7% 0% 1% 86 92 92 76 Male Female 67% 78% 5% 5% 23% 17% 5% 0% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 80% 62% 71% 83% 7% 5% 6% 4% 13% 29% 21% 13% 0% 3% 3% 0% 37 70 140 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 72% 78% 70% 75% 4% 2% 4% 8% 18% 20% 25% 16% 6% 0% 1% 1% 59 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 66% 81% 68% 75% 69% 80% 0% 5% 3% 6% 7% 8% 34% 14% 29% 19% 19% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 7% 24 62 76 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 76% 71% 5% 6% 15% 23% 4% 0% 169 188 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Favorability Rating – Martin O’Malley (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Favorable 16% Neutral 11% Unfavorable 12% Don’t Know 61% (N) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 20% 13% 5% 17% 15% 11% 60% 58% 174 158 Democrat Independent Republican 18% 9% 0% 10% 27% 0% 12% 9% 25% 61% 55% 75% 310 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 18% 15% 9% 14% 9% 3% 10% 11% 29% 58% 65% 59% 170 151 20 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 19% 8% 10% 12% 13% 10% 57% 70% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 19% 4% 12% 4% 13% 9% 56% 83% 296 61 Union household Non-union 23% 15% 8% 10% 11% 13% 58% 61% 67 277 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 30% 21% 22% 16% 22% 12% 14% 16% 11% 15% 17% 8% 14% 15% 14% 41% 57% 48% 58% 50% 63 72 142 177 190 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 8% 21% 17% 20% 12% 13% 6% 14% 7% 11% 16% 15% 73% 55% 61% 50% 86 92 92 76 Male Female 17% 16% 16% 7% 16% 9% 50% 68% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 15% 8% 18% 20% 3% 16% 7% 15% 6% 20% 13% 8% 76% 57% 62% 57% 37 70 140 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 24% 6% 12% 17% 6% 8% 10% 14% 17% 13% 10% 11% 53% 73% 68% 57% 59 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 16% 20% 13% 17% 18% 14% 14% 6% 19% 8% 7% 12% 11% 14% 9% 11% 17% 9% 60% 60% 59% 64% 58% 65% 24 62 76 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 17% 15% 10% 12% 12% 12% 61% 61% 169 188 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Favorability Rating – Bernie Sanders (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Favorable 66% Neutral 8% Unfavorable 11% Don’t Know 16% (N) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 67% 65% 5% 11% 13% 9% 14% 14% 174 158 Democrat Independent Republican 67% 57% 65% 6% 31% 0% 11% 2% 19% 16% 11% 16% 310 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 77% 62% 21% 6% 10% 9% 7% 11% 36% 10% 16% 33% 170 151 20 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 70% 55% 5% 16% 11% 10% 14% 18% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 69% 50% 6% 15% 10% 16% 15% 19% 296 61 Union household Non-union 70% 66% 10% 8% 12% 11% 8% 15% 67 277 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 60% 79% 66% 60% 75% 12% 5% 8% 10% 7% 12% 6% 13% 16% 11% 16% 9% 13% 14% 7% 63 72 142 177 190 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 65% 67% 64% 72% 13% 7% 6% 7% 8% 9% 13% 11% 14% 17% 18% 10% 86 92 92 76 Male Female 70% 63% 8% 8% 14% 9% 9% 20% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 40% 61% 67% 76% 17% 8% 6% 7% 4% 15% 13% 8% 39% 15% 14% 10% 37 70 140 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 54% 62% 66% 70% 4% 18% 7% 7% 15% 12% 8% 11% 27% 8% 18% 12% 59 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 75% 67% 84% 52% 72% 45% 3% 7% 7% 6% 8% 13% 10% 8% 4% 15% 14% 15% 12% 17% 5% 28% 6% 27% 24 62 76 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 65% 67% 8% 8% 13% 9% 15% 16% 169 188 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Favorability Rating – Jim Webb (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Favorable 13% Neutral 9% Unfavorable 11% Don’t Know 68% (N) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 13% 12% 7% 12% 14% 8% 65% 68% 174 158 Democrat Independent Republican 13% 15% 6% 8% 19% 0% 11% 1% 25% 68% 65% 69% 310 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 9% 19% 0% 12% 6% 11% 8% 11% 23% 71% 64% 66% 170 151 20 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 13% 12% 8% 10% 12% 6% 66% 73% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 14% 8% 10% 4% 11% 7% 65% 80% 296 61 Union household Non-union 9% 14% 5% 9% 9% 12% 77% 66% 67 277 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 22% 11% 10% 10% 15% 19% 6% 14% 10% 10% 13% 15% 9% 13% 13% 45% 68% 67% 68% 62% 63 72 142 177 190 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 14% 13% 11% 15% 10% 8% 10% 10% 3% 8% 16% 16% 73% 71% 63% 59% 86 92 92 76 Male Female 15% 12% 14% 5% 12% 10% 60% 73% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 11% 12% 13% 14% 3% 9% 11% 8% 12% 14% 11% 7% 74% 65% 65% 70% 37 70 140 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 19% 17% 8% 11% 12% 6% 7% 10% 8% 9% 12% 10% 60% 68% 72% 69% 59 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 16% 11% 11% 18% 11% 13% 20% 3% 10% 10% 7% 12% 14% 15% 6% 12% 12% 6% 51% 71% 74% 60% 70% 69% 24 62 76 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 13% 12% 11% 8% 10% 11% 66% 69% 169 188 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Decided 2016 DEM Primary Vote (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Def. Decided 20% Leaning Towards Someone 26% Still Trying To Decide 54% (N) 359 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 24% 14% 28% 26% 49% 60% 172 161 Democrat Independent Republican 21% 0% 22% 28% 10% 32% 51% 90% 46% 312 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 23% 18% 11% 32% 23% 16% 45% 59% 74% 169 151 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 23% 26% 0% 14% 0% 28% 39% 2% 12% 1% 49% 35% 98% 74% 99% 150 125 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 18% 24% 27% 23% 55% 52% 263 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 20% 18% 26% 26% 54% 56% 298 61 Union household Non-union 20% 18% 20% 28% 59% 54% 66 279 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 15% 19% 24% 19% 21% 29% 24% 27% 25% 22% 56% 56% 49% 56% 56% 63 72 142 176 189 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 26% 12% 16% 25% 24% 29% 24% 31% 50% 59% 60% 44% 90 92 91 75 Male Female 17% 21% 29% 24% 54% 54% 147 212 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 12% 24% 22% 17% 37% 24% 24% 28% 51% 52% 55% 56% 36 73 140 109 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 16% 14% 21% 21% 23% 19% 24% 30% 61% 66% 55% 49% 59 34 98 161 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 9% 13% 29% 12% 25% 23% 38% 36% 20% 23% 26% 24% 53% 51% 52% 66% 49% 53% 24 66 76 71 69 53 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 20% 19% 29% 24% 51% 57% 167 192 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS DEM 2016 Primary Support (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 43% Bernie Sanders 35% Joe Biden 8% Martin O’Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Someone Else 2% Undecided 9% (N=) 353 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 52% 37% 30% 41% 4% 10% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 8% 11% 171 156 Democrat Independent Republican 44% 42% 23% 36% 32% 22% 9% 6% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 6% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3% 20% 8% 16% 26% 307 31 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 41% 46% 50% 48% 28% 0% 4% 7% 24% 1% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 2% 6% 11% 23% 170 147 19 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 48% 29% 34% 39% 5% 17% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 8% 12% 260 91 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 47% 25% 34% 41% 5% 22% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 9% 10% 293 60 Union household Non-union 37% 45% 34% 36% 6% 7% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 5% 1% 15% 8% 67 272 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 57% 49% 51% 53% 37% 23% 35% 31% 26% 41% 9% 6% 10% 5% 7% 5% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 4% 8% 6% 12% 11% 63 72 142 173 187 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 37% 37% 51% 46% 47% 31% 32% 35% 9% 9% 7% 6% 0% 5% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 7% 14% 8% 8% 83 92 92 75 Male Female 32% 51% 42% 30% 10% 7% 3% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 10% 9% 147 206 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 60% 36% 38% 49% 21% 38% 39% 34% 2% 8% 13% 5% 0% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 6% 1% 0% 16% 11% 6% 8% 37 70 137 108 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 34% 49% 45% 45% 26% 23% 34% 41% 12% 5% 11% 6% 6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% 17% 23% 7% 5% 58 33 98 157 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 33% 50% 37% 47% 36% 50% 50% 36% 45% 24% 40% 24% 8% 3% 6% 17% 3% 11% 0% 2% 0% 1% 3% 5% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 3% 6% 5% 8% 11% 15% 6% 23 62 74 71 68 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 43% 43% 34% 36% 6% 10% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 2% 10% 8% 166 186 DEM 2016 Primary – Second Choice (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 25% Joe Biden 20% Bernie Martin Sanders O’Malley 18% 3% Lincoln Chafee 2% Someone Else 4% No Second Choice 2% Undecided 26% (N=) 322 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 25% 27% 22% 17% 19% 20% 5% 1% 1% 4% 4% 5% 3% 0% 20% 26% 158 140 Democrat Independent Republican 27% 13% 0% 22% 2% 26% 17% 34% 27% 4% 1% 0% 2% 8% 0% 4% 0% 25% 1% 1% 14% 24% 41% 8% 284 26 9 Liberal Moderate Conservative 35% 17% 15% 22% 20% 12% 18% 21% 1% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 5% 2% 5% 19% 0% 3% 7% 19% 30% 38% 160 131 16 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter 0% 52% 37% 35% 30% 13% 0% 12% 31% 0% 21% 37% 3% 5% 0% 0% 2% 1% 8% 0% 4% 4% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 27% 23% 34% 16% 151 125 29 16 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 26% 23% 21% 18% 20% 12% 4% 2% 0% 8% 5% 1% 2% 1% 22% 36% 241 80 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 25% 27% 22% 11% 19% 14% 4% 0% 2% 5% 4% 1% 1% 3% 23% 40% 269 53 Union household Non-union 27% 26% 18% 18% 19% 19% 8% 2% 6% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% 19% 27% 58 251 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 20% 30% 23% 19% 29% 21% 18% 23% 21% 16% 23% 20% 19% 16% 20% 6% 2% 5% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 4% 7% 7% 4% 7% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 19% 22% 24% 28% 23% 62 67 133 154 166 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 17% 25% 33% 29% 22% 22% 15% 22% 20% 21% 15% 19% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 1% 2% 3% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% 0% 29% 22% 26% 19% 77 79 87 69 Male Female 27% 24% 22% 18% 18% 19% 4% 3% 4% 1% 4% 4% 1% 2% 20% 29% 134 188 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 14% 16% 33% 25% 34% 27% 16% 16% 11% 21% 15% 22% 2% 5% 2% 4% 1% 4% 3% 1% 4% 9% 3% 2% 5% 4% 1% 0% 29% 15% 26% 30% 31 63 128 100 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 26% 24% 17% 29% 30% 19% 14% 21% 12% 24% 18% 20% 3% 3% 5% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 7% 2% 5% 1% 6% 2% 1% 24% 15% 40% 19% 48 25 94 150 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 23% 22% 34% 26% 18% 26% 15% 28% 16% 20% 17% 22% 14% 14% 27% 10% 18% 23% 5% 5% 0% 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 5% 0% 7% 4% 2% 3% 5% 6% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% 5% 36% 27% 21% 31% 27% 17% 23 59 68 64 58 50 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 22% 28% 20% 20% 21% 15% 5% 2% 2% 2% 5% 3% 2% 2% 24% 27% 149 173 DEM 2016 Primary – Would NOT Support (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 11% Joe Biden 6% Bernie Sanders 6% Lincoln Chafee 4% Jim Webb 3% Someone Else 4% All Acceptable 35% Don’t Know 30% (N=) 355 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 7% 15% 7% 6% 8% 3% 7% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 35% 33% 29% 32% 172 157 Democrat Independent Republican 9% 22% 59% 5% 15% 11% 7% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 0% 9% 35% 40% 15% 31% 21% 7% 309 31 12 Liberal Moderate Conservative 6% 14% 18% 6% 6% 16% 7% 6% 0% 5% 4% 0% 4% 1% 4% 4% 3% 14% 40% 36% 4% 28% 28% 45% 170 149 20 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 0% 15% 38% 26% 24% 7% 7% 0% 0% 7% 11% 0% 0% 20% 3% 5% 5% 0% 7% 2% 1% 3% 4% 0% 8% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 35% 42% 28% 39% 19% 35% 23% 30% 7% 38% 151 124 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 7% 23% 7% 5% 8% 0% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 37% 32% 30% 28% 259 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 10% 18% 5% 10% 7% 0% 4% 4% 3% 1% 4% 5% 36% 34% 30% 28% 294 61 Union household Non-union 8% 9% 10% 6% 9% 6% 4% 5% 0% 4% 1% 5% 32% 38% 37% 28% 67 275 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 12% 10% 12% 9% 11% 9% 5% 5% 3% 9% 17% 4% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 4% 5% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 5% 2% 6% 4% 33% 44% 36% 29% 39% 18% 27% 28% 36% 24% 63 72 140 176 189 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 24% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 9% 4% 4% 5% 9% 6% 2% 5% 7% 3% 1% 0% 6% 3% 5% 4% 7% 1% 41% 39% 24% 42% 17% 34% 30% 36% 86 92 91 75 Male Female 11% 12% 8% 5% 10% 3% 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% 6% 39% 33% 23% 34% 147 208 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 11% 24% 11% 5% 0% 7% 4% 10% 6% 2% 9% 5% 7% 6% 3% 5% 6% 3% 2% 2% 13% 2% 5% 2% 23% 23% 39% 43% 34% 32% 28% 28% 37 70 139 109 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 14% 10% 14% 10% 1% 2% 6% 9% 14% 2% 5% 5% 7% 0% 1% 6% 2% 2% 2% 4% 0% 11% 3% 6% 42% 38% 33% 33% 21% 35% 35% 28% 58 35 98 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 12% 9% 19% 13% 8% 6% 20% 2% 1% 5% 9% 9% 6% 5% 2% 3% 6% 17% 1% 6% 4% 7% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 1% 3% 1% 6% 4% 6% 1% 3% 7% 34% 38% 33% 25% 50% 31% 15% 32% 31% 45% 18% 26% 23 62 76 70 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 6% 16% 9% 4% 8% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 40% 31% 25% 34% 168 187 Most Important To Your Vote In Presidential Primary? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Jobs/ Economy 24% Health Care 8% Education 6% Income Inequality 4% Other/ DK 22% (N=) 351 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 28% 23% 10% 7% 15% 18% 11% 6% 5% 6% 4% 3% 7% 10% 3% 1% 17% 26% 170 156 Democrat Independent Republican 26% 15% 18% 8% 12% 18% 15% 26% 31% 9% 2% 0% 6% 5% 0% 4% 3% 6% 6% 20% 18% 4% 0% 0% 23% 16% 9% 304 31 13 Liberal Moderate Conservative 22% 30% 19% 9% 7% 21% 14% 21% 7% 13% 4% 0% 7% 5% 0% 3% 6% 0% 9% 7% 12% 5% 1% 0% 18% 20% 40% 167 147 18 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 29% 20% 42% 7% 13% 13% 4% 7% 18% 0% 15% 17% 11% 11% 26% 9% 9% 0% 11% 6% 7% 8% 0% 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 19% 8% 9% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 14% 18% 37% 34% 46% 148 124 28 16 30 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 25% 21% 10% 4% 17% 13% 10% 3% 6% 7% 5% 1% 5% 17% 2% 6% 19% 30% 262 89 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 25% 21% 10% 0% 16% 14% 9% 3% 5% 9% 5% 1% 7% 13% 2% 8% 20% 31% 292 59 Union household Non-union 20% 26% 5% 10% 18% 16% 8% 9% 3% 6% 7% 3% 7% 9% 3% 4% 29% 18% 65 273 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 35% 25% 26% 29% 21% 7% 6% 9% 14% 7% 15% 20% 12% 17% 20% 4% 13% 11% 4% 12% 9% 4% 8% 7% 4% 7% 5% 3% 2% 5% 7% 5% 6% 5% 7% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 14% 22% 21% 20% 22% 63 72 139 171 189 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 11% 28% 29% 28% 3% 10% 12% 10% 7% 23% 17% 17% 8% 5% 9% 10% 14% 8% 2% 0% 0% 3% 9% 4% 19% 8% 4% 2% 7% 1% 1% 4% 32% 15% 16% 25% 87 89 89 74 Male Female 21% 26% 2% 13% 15% 17% 10% 7% 7% 5% 7% 2% 4% 10% 4% 3% 30% 16% 142 208 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 29% 19% 24% 26% 14% 12% 7% 6% 16% 10% 16% 20% 4% 4% 6% 15% 3% 7% 4% 8% 1% 1% 4% 7% 12% 11% 8% 5% 0% 1% 6% 2% 20% 35% 24% 11% 35 71 136 108 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 26% 22% 23% 24% 10% 4% 9% 9% 11% 26% 20% 14% 9% 0% 6% 11% 12% 8% 5% 3% 6% 2% 5% 3% 6% 16% 4% 10% 2% 0% 5% 4% 19% 22% 22% 24% 57 34 97 155 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 15% 27% 20% 24% 19% 36% 8% 12% 10% 4% 6% 10% 19% 8% 28% 16% 14% 10% 14% 8% 7% 3% 12% 10% 12% 11% 0% 10% 1% 7% 3% 7% 4% 2% 4% 5% 8% 10% 8% 11% 5% 5% 6% 2% 0% 2% 11% 0% 16% 16% 22% 27% 28% 17% 22 63 76 71 66 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 25% 23% 7% 9% 16% 16% 10% 6% 6% 6% 5% 3% 5% 10% 6% 1% 19% 25% 162 189 LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Foreign EnviroPolicy nment 16% 8% Social Campaign Issues Finance 8% 3% Who is the Strongest Leader? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 56% Bernie Sanders 13% Joe Biden 8% Martin O’Malley 1% Jim Webb 0% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 21% (N=) 358 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 62% 52% 9% 17% 7% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 20% 22% 173 160 Democrat Independent Republican 59% 40% 24% 13% 10% 23% 8% 15% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 1% 1% 6% 18% 33% 38% 313 30 12 Liberal Moderate Conservative 62% 53% 51% 17% 10% 4% 5% 7% 17% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 11% 15% 27% 18% 170 149 20 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 86% 41% 30% 8% 25% 2% 33% 1% 4% 2% 2% 3% 53% 26% 5% 0% 1% 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 10% 10% 21% 16% 37% 58% 151 123 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 59% 48% 12% 14% 6% 13% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 19% 25% 263 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 56% 54% 14% 5% 6% 16% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 20% 23% 297 61 Union household Non-union 42% 61% 17% 10% 6% 7% 4% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 28% 20% 65 279 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 54% 63% 57% 62% 55% 9% 17% 15% 7% 18% 7% 6% 11% 9% 8% 5% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 3% 2% 0% 22% 10% 13% 20% 18% 63 72 141 177 188 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 53% 52% 62% 56% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 5% 9% 10% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 21% 27% 15% 18% 90 90 92 75 Male Female 51% 59% 17% 10% 8% 8% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 19% 22% 146 212 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 64% 38% 54% 68% 5% 24% 15% 5% 2% 11% 8% 7% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 29% 22% 21% 17% 37 72 140 109 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 55% 66% 57% 54% 12% 0% 5% 19% 7% 5% 15% 5% 4% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 3% 0% 18% 29% 18% 22% 58 35 98 160 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 43% 64% 52% 53% 53% 65% 9% 11% 21% 12% 13% 5% 4% 7% 4% 16% 9% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 1% 0% 2% 0% 5% 40% 17% 23% 18% 23% 15% 23 65 76 71 69 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 61% 52% 9% 16% 5% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 22% 20% 167 192 Who is the Least Honest? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 28% Joe Biden 5% Lincoln Chafee 3% Bernie Sanders 2% Martin O’Malley 2% Jim Webb 0% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 60% (N=) 346 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 20% 34% 3% 6% 2% 4% 2% 2% 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 70% 50% 163 157 Democrat Independent Republican 26% 37% 87% 4% 13% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 14% 11% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 64% 36% 2% 305 28 10 Liberal Moderate Conservative 21% 34% 34% 2% 7% 6% 2% 3% 0% 2% 2% 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 72% 49% 51% 167 141 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 6% 44% 73% 54% 27% 5% 2% 0% 0% 11% 4% 2% 0% 7% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 77% 50% 25% 39% 60% 146 121 28 14 31 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 24% 41% 2% 12% 2% 3% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 66% 44% 254 91 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 26% 41% 3% 11% 3% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 63% 48% 289 57 Union household Non-union 29% 26% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 61% 62% 64 268 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 33% 32% 31% 20% 32% 2% 4% 2% 5% 5% 2% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 8% 3% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 56% 48% 56% 68% 56% 62 70 136 168 182 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 35% 36% 23% 17% 11% 3% 4% 0% 0% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 4% 3% 4% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 50% 55% 60% 77% 88 88 88 70 Male Female 37% 22% 2% 6% 3% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 53% 65% 140 206 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 7% 42% 30% 25% 15% 0% 3% 6% 0% 2% 1% 6% 0% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 77% 47% 62% 61% 36 68 135 105 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 28% 21% 37% 23% 2% 18% 5% 2% 1% 7% 4% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 1% 64% 48% 51% 68% 56 35 93 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 43% 23% 31% 27% 34% 20% 7% 2% 10% 7% 0% 1% 0% 4% 4% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 50% 68% 46% 56% 64% 77% 22 64 75 68 64 52 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 26% 30% 1% 8% 1% 4% 1% 2% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 70% 51% 160 186 Who Best Represents Democrats Like Yourself? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Bernie Sanders LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 41% Hillary Clinton 30% Joe Biden 7% Martin O’Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 1% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 19% (N=) 356 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 38% 45% 38% 22% 7% 8% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 15% 22% 172 160 Democrat Independent Republican 41% 49% 24% 31% 16% 12% 7% 8% 6% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 6% 0% 7% 0% 0% 1% 6% 18% 18% 45% 313 30 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 56% 33% 2% 31% 29% 39% 4% 10% 16% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 8% 23% 43% 170 147 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 13% 93% 5% 16% 21% 66% 3% 0% 8% 8% 5% 1% 47% 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 5% 15% 3% 48% 30% 61% 150 123 29 16 31 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 41% 43% 34% 19% 8% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 14% 32% 260 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 41% 43% 32% 17% 9% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 15% 39% 295 61 Union household Non-union 38% 42% 28% 31% 5% 8% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 25% 16% 67 276 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 29% 46% 39% 29% 54% 44% 31% 33% 41% 22% 5% 10% 8% 8% 7% 5% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 11% 11% 15% 19% 14% 63 71 140 175 188 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 54% 38% 36% 39% 19% 28% 39% 33% 0% 9% 9% 12% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 27% 20% 14% 13% 88 92 90 75 Male Female 48% 36% 21% 36% 11% 5% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 15% 22% 145 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 22% 40% 44% 44% 40% 26% 24% 36% 5% 5% 9% 8% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 33% 26% 19% 10% 37 72 138 109 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 31% 21% 44% 47% 32% 46% 34% 23% 14% 7% 4% 7% 4% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 15% 26% 17% 21% 57 35 98 160 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 68% 39% 57% 26% 45% 24% 11% 35% 21% 36% 25% 42% 7% 8% 5% 6% 7% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 14% 16% 17% 30% 18% 16% 23 65 75 71 68 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 41% 41% 32% 28% 9% 6% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 14% 24% 166 190 Who Cares the Most About People Like You? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Bernie Sanders LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 45% Hillary Clinton 24% Joe Biden 8% Martin O’Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 21% (N=) 355 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 41% 50% 31% 19% 7% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 16% 25% 170 160 Democrat Independent Republican 44% 61% 24% 27% 3% 3% 7% 14% 9% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 1% 1% 6% 19% 21% 51% 310 30 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 58% 39% 9% 23% 24% 41% 4% 8% 13% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 14% 24% 32% 167 149 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 16% 92% 8% 26% 45% 54% 1% 2% 18% 5% 7% 2% 48% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 18% 0% 1% 0% 0% 5% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 7% 21% 5% 42% 26% 41% 147 125 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 44% 47% 28% 12% 7% 11% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 17% 30% 259 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 44% 51% 27% 8% 7% 11% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 19% 29% 294 61 Union household Non-union 44% 45% 17% 26% 2% 8% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 32% 18% 67 274 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 29% 51% 41% 37% 57% 32% 22% 30% 32% 16% 8% 8% 13% 8% 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 21% 16% 12% 18% 19% 63 71 140 172 184 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 53% 42% 41% 46% 11% 26% 31% 27% 7% 7% 8% 10% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% 2% 29% 21% 15% 14% 90 92 90 74 Male Female 52% 40% 15% 30% 8% 8% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 20% 21% 147 208 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 38% 44% 47% 45% 40% 18% 21% 27% 2% 6% 11% 7% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 20% 27% 18% 20% 37 72 136 109 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 31% 42% 47% 48% 32% 34% 26% 18% 7% 2% 10% 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 0% 24% 18% 14% 24% 57 35 98 159 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 61% 37% 61% 40% 46% 30% 16% 31% 16% 29% 18% 32% 5% 8% 7% 12% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 4% 1% 0% 2% 2% 1% 15% 23% 16% 18% 24% 26% 23 66 73 70 69 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 42% 48% 25% 23% 6% 9% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 23% 18% 167 188 Who Has the Characteristics and Qualities You Think a President Should Have? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 38% Bernie Sanders 27% Joe Biden 12% Martin O’Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 19% (N=) 351 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 46% 33% 24% 29% 8% 13% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 18% 22% 166 160 Democrat Independent Republican 39% 42% 14% 27% 21% 22% 12% 13% 11% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 18% 23% 40% 306 31 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 39% 38% 38% 38% 21% 1% 6% 14% 19% 1% 3% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 11% 13% 22% 31% 165 148 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 78% 12% 0% 13% 5% 1% 74% 4% 4% 5% 6% 5% 75% 17% 8% 0% 0% 0% 34% 2% 1% 0% 0% 13% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% 14% 7% 21% 18% 70% 149 121 29 15 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 41% 29% 28% 25% 9% 18% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 16% 26% 257 93 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 39% 31% 27% 29% 11% 13% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 18% 25% 292 59 Union household Non-union 32% 41% 27% 26% 6% 11% 4% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 1% 27% 18% 67 271 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 48% 42% 48% 44% 31% 21% 23% 20% 22% 33% 10% 8% 13% 9% 11% 5% 0% 1% 1% 1% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 2% 0% 11% 21% 14% 20% 21% 63 69 140 173 183 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 32% 33% 47% 40% 35% 26% 22% 26% 14% 13% 11% 9% 0% 5% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 2% 17% 20% 16% 20% 90 91 88 75 Male Female 30% 44% 36% 21% 14% 10% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 13% 23% 145 207 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 42% 32% 34% 46% 18% 32% 29% 25% 7% 11% 15% 9% 2% 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 32% 21% 16% 16% 37 71 135 108 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 35% 51% 40% 35% 22% 9% 30% 30% 14% 6% 16% 10% 6% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 18% 33% 8% 23% 58 33 97 158 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 21% 43% 37% 40% 33% 45% 53% 25% 35% 15% 33% 16% 8% 11% 6% 19% 10% 13% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 5% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 13% 16% 21% 25% 20% 12% 23 64 72 71 69 53 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 38% 38% 29% 26% 10% 13% 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 17% 20% 166 185 Who Will Best Handle the Economy? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 37% Bernie Sanders 28% Joe Biden 6% Martin O’Malley 2% Jim Webb 2% Lincoln Chafee 1% Someone Else 2% Don’t Know 22% (N=) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 44% 34% 26% 28% 8% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 3% 18% 26% 172 159 Democrat Independent Republican 39% 30% 23% 27% 34% 31% 6% 6% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 6% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 20% 22% 29% 20% 311 31 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 38% 38% 49% 38% 22% 1% 5% 8% 13% 1% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 5% 15% 26% 31% 170 149 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 73% 13% 11% 9% 10% 4% 69% 3% 12% 17% 6% 2% 29% 6% 4% 0% 0% 0% 32% 3% 1% 2% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 15% 8% 17% 11% 50% 19% 58% 151 125 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 41% 26% 28% 28% 5% 9% 2% 1% 1% 3% 0% 3% 3% 0% 19% 31% 263 93 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 39% 28% 27% 31% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 4% 3% 0% 20% 32% 296 60 Union household Non-union 29% 40% 20% 29% 3% 7% 4% 1% 0% 2% 4% 0% 10% 1% 30% 20% 67 276 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 41% 45% 48% 44% 34% 27% 25% 23% 22% 34% 5% 6% 6% 8% 4% 5% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 6% 4% 3% 2% 17% 17% 16% 22% 19% 63 72 141 174 187 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 31% 35% 42% 43% 33% 34% 26% 22% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% 6% 0% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 2% 25% 17% 19% 23% 88 92 92 75 Male Female 31% 42% 38% 21% 7% 6% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 3% 17% 26% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 50% 31% 33% 43% 11% 33% 29% 30% 4% 5% 5% 9% 0% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 2% 1% 35% 21% 26% 14% 37 73 137 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 33% 50% 42% 34% 17% 9% 27% 35% 5% 4% 9% 5% 6% 0% 1% 1% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 4% 30% 37% 16% 20% 58 33 98 162 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 30% 47% 36% 37% 29% 43% 53% 30% 26% 20% 38% 15% 5% 9% 5% 6% 6% 5% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% 5% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 7% 1% 2% 0% 7% 10% 26% 29% 23% 28% 23 65 74 71 69 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 36% 39% 33% 23% 6% 6% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 4% 20% 24% 167 189 Who Will Best Handle Terrorism? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 45% Joe Biden 12% Bernie Sanders 11% Jim Webb 1% Martin O’Malley 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Someone Else 3% Don’t Know 25% (N=) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 54% 39% 10% 15% 8% 14% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 24% 26% 171 161 Democrat Independent Republican 48% 33% 20% 12% 11% 8% 11% 13% 20% 1% 1% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 3% 0% 20% 24% 42% 19% 312 31 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 52% 41% 42% 7% 16% 13% 17% 8% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 5% 19% 27% 38% 169 150 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 69% 36% 4% 16% 30% 6% 10% 49% 15% 12% 0% 30% 1% 4% 7% 1% 1% 0% 14% 0% 0% 1% 0% 18% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3% 7% 15% 5% 23% 19% 38% 19% 42% 151 125 29 16 31 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 49% 35% 10% 15% 10% 15% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 4% 2% 23% 32% 262 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 48% 34% 12% 10% 10% 16% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 4% 23% 36% 297 60 Union household Non-union 37% 48% 8% 13% 3% 12% 0% 2% 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 2% 36% 22% 66 278 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 51% 51% 46% 51% 44% 15% 7% 9% 9% 15% 5% 7% 10% 8% 15% 6% 0% 3% 2% 2% 5% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 10% 4% 3% 2% 12% 25% 27% 26% 22% 63 71 140 175 188 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 37% 40% 55% 49% 10% 21% 8% 9% 19% 12% 7% 8% 0% 3% 0% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 7% 1% 33% 19% 21% 31% 90 92 92 73 Male Female 38% 51% 18% 7% 18% 7% 2% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 19% 30% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 51% 32% 42% 58% 6% 13% 14% 10% 3% 20% 11% 9% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 2% 4% 39% 28% 27% 17% 37 73 139 109 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 43% 53% 47% 44% 18% 1% 11% 11% 10% 7% 12% 12% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 3% 3% 18% 37% 25% 27% 58 35 98 161 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 51% 53% 40% 45% 37% 52% 9% 7% 7% 15% 14% 18% 20% 13% 14% 7% 14% 3% 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 10% 1% 2% 1% 15% 24% 27% 32% 30% 16% 23 64 76 71 69 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 48% 43% 14% 10% 13% 10% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 20% 31% 167 190 Who Will Best Handle International Trade Policy? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 55% Bernie Sanders 14% Joe Biden 11% Martin O’Malley 1% Jim Webb 0% Lincoln Chafee 0% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 17% (N=) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 61% 55% 13% 16% 8% 12% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 15% 15% 170 161 Democrat Independent Republican 56% 54% 39% 14% 12% 19% 12% 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 6% 1% 0% 19% 16% 32% 0% 311 31 12 Liberal Moderate Conservative 55% 58% 64% 21% 8% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 15% 18% 15% 167 151 20 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 83% 38% 19% 26% 42% 0% 36% 1% 0% 14% 2% 11% 59% 12% 7% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 18% 0% 13% 13% 21% 15% 35% 149 125 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 60% 42% 13% 16% 10% 14% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 13% 28% 261 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 58% 43% 13% 17% 10% 17% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 16% 23% 296 60 Union household Non-union 62% 55% 12% 13% 11% 10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 7% 20% 67 276 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 60% 66% 59% 64% 50% 10% 11% 9% 12% 20% 11% 15% 13% 6% 15% 6% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 0% 11% 7% 15% 15% 14% 63 72 141 174 187 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 43% 53% 60% 63% 19% 17% 12% 10% 11% 13% 12% 7% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 27% 10% 14% 17% 90 92 92 75 Male Female 51% 58% 22% 8% 13% 9% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 9% 23% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 64% 40% 51% 68% 6% 24% 13% 12% 3% 11% 16% 6% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 2% 26% 20% 18% 10% 37 73 137 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 49% 76% 53% 55% 14% 1% 14% 17% 18% 5% 14% 6% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 13% 18% 15% 20% 58 35 98 159 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 46% 58% 64% 51% 46% 62% 33% 17% 17% 11% 13% 4% 13% 4% 8% 25% 9% 8% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 3% 7% 20% 9% 12% 30% 17% 23 65 74 71 70 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 56% 55% 14% 14% 9% 12% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 17% 16% 168 189 Who Will Best Handle Health Care Policy? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Hillary Clinton LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 43% Bernie Sanders 27% Joe Biden 6% Martin O’Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 1% Someone Else 1% Don’t Know 20% (N=) 357 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 52% 38% 23% 30% 5% 8% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 18% 19% 172 159 Democrat Independent Republican 45% 37% 23% 25% 45% 27% 6% 7% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 20% 11% 44% 311 31 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 42% 46% 52% 38% 20% 1% 4% 7% 10% 0% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 5% 15% 21% 28% 170 149 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 74% 19% 33% 24% 16% 9% 58% 7% 7% 23% 5% 5% 21% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 0% 1% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 11% 16% 30% 27% 57% 151 125 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 48% 30% 25% 31% 5% 7% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% 3% 1% 0% 18% 26% 263 93 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 46% 31% 25% 36% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% 19% 26% 296 60 Union household Non-union 43% 46% 16% 29% 4% 6% 4% 1% 0% 2% 5% 0% 2% 0% 27% 17% 67 276 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 58% 52% 47% 49% 40% 16% 25% 27% 19% 35% 7% 11% 4% 7% 6% 6% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 8% 9% 18% 21% 15% 63 72 141 174 187 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 29% 43% 53% 51% 38% 25% 26% 21% 1% 5% 7% 7% 0% 5% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 26% 23% 12% 18% 88 92 92 75 Male Female 40% 46% 31% 24% 8% 4% 3% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 15% 24% 147 210 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 48% 41% 37% 51% 33% 25% 27% 25% 1% 5% 7% 6% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 18% 21% 24% 16% 37 73 137 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 53% 52% 46% 36% 14% 27% 27% 31% 7% 4% 4% 7% 4% 0% 1% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 13% 15% 18% 26% 58 33 98 162 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 42% 44% 31% 47% 48% 49% 32% 20% 46% 17% 25% 21% 16% 11% 5% 2% 5% 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% 20% 18% 26% 22% 21% 23 65 74 71 69 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 50% 37% 26% 27% 6% 6% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 16% 24% 167 189 Who Will Best Deal With Big Banks and Corporations? (Likely 2016 DEM Primary Voters) Bernie Sanders LIKELY NH DEM PRIMARY VOTERS 36% Hillary Clinton 31% Joe Biden 11% Martin O’Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 1% Someone Else 2% Don’t Know 16% (N=) 358 Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared 37% 36% 36% 27% 5% 15% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 2% 4% 1% 16% 17% 172 161 Democrat Independent Republican 35% 47% 27% 33% 9% 21% 10% 20% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 7% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 20% 15% 25% 25% 313 31 11 Liberal Moderate Conservative 47% 32% 0% 29% 31% 50% 8% 10% 15% 0% 4% 12% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 5% 14% 17% 18% 170 150 19 Clinton Supporter Sanders Supporter Biden Supporter Other Supporter Undecided 14% 74% 8% 26% 35% 56% 10% 19% 4% 15% 10% 5% 46% 14% 4% 1% 0% 0% 18% 10% 0% 2% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 15% 6% 18% 8% 19% 14% 30% 151 125 29 16 32 Voted in 2008 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2008 NH Primary 37% 35% 34% 20% 9% 16% 2% 2% 1% 3% 0% 3% 3% 0% 15% 21% 263 95 Voted in 2012 NH Primary Did Not Vote in 2012 NH Primary 35% 40% 34% 14% 10% 15% 2% 4% 1% 0% 0% 4% 3% 0% 15% 22% 298 60 Union household Non-union 39% 35% 23% 34% 9% 8% 7% 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 7% 1% 11% 18% 66 278 Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Read Local Newspapers Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 32% 42% 35% 27% 46% 32% 33% 28% 38% 28% 9% 7% 16% 10% 8% 6% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 3% 5% 1% 17% 13% 15% 18% 12% 63 72 141 176 188 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over 46% 37% 33% 30% 21% 29% 40% 32% 11% 17% 6% 9% 0% 7% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 3% 2% 16% 6% 16% 23% 90 92 92 74 Male Female 47% 29% 26% 34% 10% 11% 5% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 3% 2% 7% 23% 147 212 High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate 27% 36% 39% 35% 38% 26% 32% 30% 15% 6% 12% 10% 0% 3% 3% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 4% 20% 19% 12% 19% 37 72 139 110 Attend services 1 or more a week 1-2 times a month Less often Never 24% 20% 38% 42% 31% 55% 31% 25% 8% 9% 17% 8% 4% 2% 1% 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 3% 1% 3% 2% 23% 12% 8% 20% 58 35 98 162 North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area 58% 44% 48% 20% 43% 14% 19% 24% 26% 45% 22% 42% 7% 11% 9% 15% 7% 12% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% 6% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 2% 3% 0% 5% 1% 11% 16% 14% 13% 18% 23% 23 65 76 71 69 54 First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist 37% 36% 33% 29% 8% 13% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 17% 16% 167 191