Campaign and Elections
11-19-07
Impact of Gender and Race on Caucus Remain Unclear
By, Justin Schardin
Glass ceilings are such a part of how Americans define themselves and their
limitations that one would almost expect to find them around every corner. Which
makes it imprudent to suggest areas where they don't play large roles.
U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., say that Americans
will vote for them as individuals, not for their gender or race, respectively.
Conventional wisdom, though, dictates that each may encounter electability
problems.
The question is whether America is ready for a woman or African-American to be
president. Whether the voters who are not ready or the voters who love the idea
of breaking a major societal barrier will have the greater effect remains to be
seen.
"I doubt it'll be an advantage, but I don't think that either of them [is] not electable.
They clearly can both win," said Drake University professor Arthur Sanders,
adding it's impossible to easily separate the issues from the specific candidate.
Sanders also argued that neither gender nor race will be as significant with highly
knowledgeable Iowa voters, because familiarity breeds understanding.
"[T]hese kind of broad, sweeping generalizations about candidates probably
matter less [in Iowa]," he said. "Once you meet Hillary Clinton you think of her as
Hillary Clinton, not as a woman candidate. The same is true for Barack Obama,
or Mitt Romney...as a Mormon."
U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., started an 11-day Iowa sojourn yesterday with a
women's event in Des Moines. PoliticsIowa asked him if this could be the first
election where being a white male could be a handicap.
"I find it exciting, and I mean that sincerely," answered Biden.
"If I'd had amnesia for the last 35 to 40 years and you woke me up and said,
‘hey, two good new candidates are an African-American and a woman,' I'd say
‘that's progress, we're doing really well.'"
Biden argued that in the end, voters will recognize the 2008 election's importance
and vote for the "single most competent" individual rather than any other
consideration.
Maybe, but Iowa State University professor Steffen Schmidt disagreed. He
said though their impact next November is unclear, gender and race are
advantages for Clinton and Obama in the nomination process.
"People are excited about the idea in the Democratic Party," he said. "[T]hey
think this is wonderful and it's a serious flaw that the U.S. has never had a
woman as a candidate, much less as a president. And they'd like to see it
happen."
He added that Obama "is a symbol of this changing racial and ethnic mix that the
U.S. is," and that the loser, in comparison, is Edwards.
"Edwards is smart and charming and has a great smile and everything, but... is
being essentially marginalized because he's not a woman and not a bi-racial or
multi-racial person."
Though Obama and Clinton both fare well with African-American voters, that
group makes up less than three percent of Iowa's electorate, and will not play as
large a role as elsewhere.
A gender gap, however, is obvious in polls, and women make up the majority of
caucus-goers. In the latest University of Iowa survey, Clinton did more than 10
points better among Iowa women than men, while former U.S. Sen. John
Edwards, D-N.C., did more than eight points better with men. U.S. Sen. Barack
Obama, D-Ill., received almost the same support from both genders.
Clinton's gender gap arguably reflects women disproportionately supporting her
efforts to become the first woman president. Or, it could be from men
disproportionately disliking the same concept.
Likely there are elements of both. The problem in dissecting the numbers even
after an election is that each candidate represents a single data point, and it's
hard to extrapolate from that.
"Iowa has never elected a woman to be governor or to be senator or to be a
member of the House of Representatives," said Sanders. "Does that mean
Iowa's not ready to do that? Well, no. There's absolutely no reason to believe the
right woman running in Iowa couldn't win."
Most Democratic campaigns are making special efforts to compete with Clinton
for the female vote, and all have aimed policy proposals at women. Biden's event
yesterday featured numerous prominent women, and Obama's camp Friday
released the names of 46 Iowa women supporters in elective office.
"[Clinton's opponents] have to deal with the issues because to the extent that it's
a symbolic issue, she wins. They can't beat the symbolism," said Sanders.
If either Obama or Clinton lose the general election, it will be difficult to prove it
was because of gender or race, and not just them as individuals. If they win, the
same will be true, but at least it will show that it can be done. For some, showing
that it can be done will influence their caucusing decision.