STATE OF MICHIGAN BEFORE THE MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION ***** In the matter, on the Commission's own motion, ) regarding the regulatory reviews, revisions, ) determinations, and/or approvals necessary for ) the CITY OF EATON RAPIDS to fully ) comply with Public Act 295 of 2008 ) __________________________________________) Case No. U-15859 SUBMITTAL OF ENERGY OPTIMIZATION PLAN ANNUAL REPORT In accordance with the Commission's Order issued March 2, 2010, (Doc. No. 15), the City of Eaton Rapids hereby submits its energy optimization plan annual report for 2009. A copy of this annual report, including any attachments, is attached. Respectfully submitted, DICKINSON WRIGHT PLLC Attorneys for the City of Eaton Rapids Peter H. Ellsworth Digitally signed by Peter H. Ellsworth DN: CN=Peter H. Ellsworth,O=Dickinson Wright PLLC,OU=OU,E=pellsworth@dickinsonwright.com,C=US Date: 2010.05.12 16:05:47 -04:00 By: ____________________________________ Peter H. Ellsworth (P23657) Michael J. Pattwell (P72419) Business Address: 215 South Washington Square Suite 200 Lansing, MI 48933-1816 Telephone: (517) 371-1730 Dated: May 12, 2010 LANSING 33092-11 438558 City of Eaton Rapids Energy Optimization Annual Report for 2009 MPSC Case No. U-15859 Introduction Pursuant to 2008 Public Act 295 (PA 295), the City of Eaton Rapids (CER) is filing this annual energy optimization (EO) report with the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC). This EO annual report consists of three sections: Section 1 will address the requirements under PA 295 Section 97, Subsections 1-3 and Section 71, Subsection 3 (i). Section 2 will summarize the EO programs implemented in 2009. Section 3 will provide additional information and goals for 2010 programs. SECTION 1: PA 295 SECTION 97 SUBSECTIONS 1-3 REQUIREMENTS Section 97 (1) Each provider shall submit to the commission an annual report that provides information relating to the actions taken by the provider to comply with the energy optimization standards. The CER has taken the following actions to comply with the EO standards: Filed a 4-year Energy Optimization plan with the MPSC on March 31, 2009 as required by PA 295. This EO plan was approved by the MPSC on July 1, 2009. Launched energy optimization programs for all customer classes in October of 2009. Overall administration of the EO programs was the responsibility of CER personnel. In addition, an implementation contractor, Franklin Energy Inc., was selected to implement the Residential Lighting, Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in and Recycling program, Business Prescriptive and Business Custom programs. Education for both Residential and Business was implemented by CER in-house personnel. Contracted with KEMA, Inc. for obtaining an independent expert evaluation for the verification of incremental energy savings for each energy optimization program. Page 1 of 8 Section 97 (2) Annual reports under subsection (1) shall include the following: (a) The number of energy optimization credits that the provider generated during the reporting period. (b) Expenditures made in the past year and anticipated future expenditures to comply with this subpart. (c) Any other information that the commission determines necessary. In the fall of 2009, the MPSC staff approved an interim report format for all the municipal utilities in Michigan. That interim report details the energy optimization credits generated, expenditures and surcharges collected from customers in the past year. The end of year interim report for 2009 can be found in Attachment A. Future expenditures for 2010 are expected to follow the EO Plan filing that was submitted and approved in 2009. Exceptions to that plan filing will be explained in Section 3 of this report. Section 97 (3) Concurrent with the submission of each report under subsection (1), a municipally-owned electric utility shall submit a summary of the report to its customers in their bills with a bill insert, to its governing body, at its office and on its website. The CER will submit a copy of this annual report to the City Council, to it’s customers through the bill insert, and its office on its website no later than April 30, 2010. Section 71 (3)(i) Include a process for obtaining an independent expert evaluation of the actual energy optimization programs to verify the incremental energy savings from each energy optimization program for purposes of section 77. In December the CER as part of the Michigan Public Power Agency’s Energy Efficiency Work Group issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) to verify the incremental gross energy savings for each EO program for 2009 and 2010. KEMA, Inc. was chosen as the evaluation contractor for these 24 municipal utilities. KEMA started collecting data in late December of 2009 and will complete the evaluation for each municipal under the RFP and that evaluation is attached to this report as Attachment B. SECTION 2: SUMMARY OF EO PROGRAMS IMPLEMENTED IN 2009 Residential Low Income Services Due to the timing of our implementation schedule, the CER was unable to contract with any local agencies in 2009 but will pursue opportunities to partner with local organizations in 2010. The energy savings goals and the budget allocations from the 2009 Low Income program will be added to the goals for the 2010 program. Page 2 of 8 Low Income Program Summary 2009 Goal Energy Savings (kWh) 2,892 Budget ($) 1,880 2009 Actual -0-0- Difference 2,892 1,880 Residential Solutions The programs below were made available to all CER residential electric customers. Efficient Lighting Program The CER focused on the distribution of CFL’s to our residential customers with the distribution to customers done at City Hall service counter with 2 CFLs provided to two-hundred-fifty (250) of our customers free of charge. The CER has evaluated partnership opportunities to set up CFL recycling opportunities for our residential customers in 2010 and have selected to partner with Michigan Energy Options who received funding from the MPSC to implement a statewide recycling program. Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In and Recycling Program The objective of this program was to produce long-term energy savings in the residential sector by removing operable, inefficient refrigerators and freezers from the power grid and recycling them in an environmentally safe manner. Target market is residential customers who have “second” or back-up units in their garage or basement. All units were required to be operable to participate in this program and each customer received a $30 incentive for each unit recycled. Franklin Energy selected JACO Environmental as the recycling subcontractor to provide comprehensive turn-key services. JACO was responsible for qualifying customers, scheduling and tracking unit pick-ups and processing incentive payments. The number of units that were picked up in 2009 was five (5). The goal for this program was twenty-six (26) units. It was determined by the CER that the number of units scheduled through the end of the year would not meet the goals of the program. The decision was made to carry forward the budget money from the 2009 Refrigerator/Freezer program budget to 2010. Residential Education Services One and a half percent of the EO budget was used on Residential education programs. These budget expenditures were used to communicate and educate customers on the benefits of energy efficiency, and load management. Budget Page 3 of 8 funds for education are deemed to generate a proportional amount of the required energy savings for each program year in which the money is spent. The CER Residential Education Program was implemented by in-house personnel and included posters and informational handouts at the front counter at City Hall. Through our contractor, print media ads were placed in both local media outlets and we included information on our website which linked directly to JACO’s website. Internally, staff received training so they would be able to respond to customer questions as the CFL’s were being distributed at the counter. Residential Program Summary Overall the 2009 residential programs were successful considering programs were not launched until late summer and early fall. The tables below summarize the energy savings achieved and budget expenditures from the 2009 residential programs compared to the 2009 EO Plan goals. The residential program energy savings goals were bundled together to achieve the 2009 goals. Any net shortages or excess kilowatt hours and budget expenditures from the 2009 programs will be carried over into the 2010 program goals. Residential Energy Savings Program Efficient Lighting Refrigerator/Freezer Recycling Education Services Total Residential Budget Summary Program Efficient Lighting Refrigerator/Freezer Recycling Education Services Total 2009 kWh Goals 19,983 42,867 4,205 67,055 2009 Budget 1,662 5,863 353 7,878 kWh Installed Difference 22,050 8,239 4,205 34,494 2,067 -34,628 -0-32,561 2009 Expenditures Difference 2,422 5,954 354 8,730 760 91 1 852 Business Solutions The programs below were made available to all CER commercial and industrial customers. Page 4 of 8 Commercial and Industrial Prescriptive Incentive Program The Prescriptive Incentive program provides incentives when replacing inefficient equipment with high-efficiency electric technologies on a one-for-one basis. These incentives address the first-cost barrier for customers by providing financial incentives averaging 20% to 40% of the incremental cost of purchasing qualifying technologies. The program was marketed by direct contract through CER and Franklin Energy staff and the City of Eaton Rapids website. All of the 2009 incentive payments were for lighting upgrades. The number of customers who participated in the Prescriptive program was two (2) for 2009. Commercial and Industrial Custom Incentive Program The objective of the Custom Incentive Program is to affect the installation of site-specific and unique energy efficiency technologies and process improvements (that do not fit the parameters of the Prescriptive Program) by business customers that would not have done so in the absence of the program. This program was marketed through the same channels as the Prescriptive Program. The number of completed applications for the Custom program was zero (0) in 2009. Business Education Services One and a half percent of the EO budget was used on Business education programs. These budget expenditures communicated and educated customers on the benefits of energy efficiency, conservation and load management. Budget funds for education are deemed to generate a proportional amount of the required energy savings for each program year in which the money is spent. The CER Business Education program was implemented by in-house personnel and Franklin Energy by direct customer contact and also on the City of Eaton Rapids website. Business Program Summary The business programs were well received by our customers, however, due to the short time period to promote programs it was more difficult to achieve the goals. The business programs often required a significant investment from the customer and due to the economic conditions in Michigan many business customers were unable to fund major projects. It is anticipated that the 2010 programs will be more successful. The tables below details the energy savings and the budget expenditures for the 2009 business programs compared to the 2009 EO Plan goals. Any net shortages or excess energy goals or budget expenditures from the 2009 programs will be carried over into the 2010 program goals. Page 5 of 8 Business Energy Savings Summary Program kWh Goals Prescriptive Incentive Custom Incentive Business Education Totals (spread sheet data) Business Budget Summary Program Prescriptive Incentive Custom Incentive Education Services Total 58,689 21,391 4,205 84,285 2009 Budget 8,057 3,080 353 11,490 kWh Installed 22,150 -04,206 26,356 2009 Expenditures 7,526 4,656 354 12,536 Difference -36,539 -21,391 1 -57,929 Difference -531 1,576 1 1,046 SECTION 3: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND 2010 EO PROGRAMS This section provides additional information to 2009 programs and a summary of the 2010 Energy Optimization programs. Self-Directed Energy Optimization Plan for Electric Customers; The CER had one (1) customer that chose the self-directed option and the respective megawatt hour savings that were estimated was 126 megawatt hours for 2009 and 210 megawatt hours in 2010. An update from that customer shows that the savings achieved from their respective projects for 2009 was 126 megawatt hours. Recovery of Costs from Customers The CER started levying surcharges for the Energy Optimization programs in July 2009. Those surcharges are shown in the table below: Levelized Surcharges Residential Per kWh Secondary 1 Per meter Secondary 2 Per meter Page 6 of 8 2009-2012 $ 00.0008 $ 04.0400 NA Primary Per meter $100.0100 To recover the low income program costs from the self-directed customers the levelized charges to Primary customers will be $8.56 per meter per month. Coordination of Energy Optimization Programs; The CER has and will continue to meet with other utilities and agencies regarding the coordination of programs. In addition, the CER has participated in the EO Collaborative meetings hosted by MPSC through our membership in Michigan Municipal Electric Association (MMEA). New Energy Optimization Programs for 2010 The CER plans to launch the following new additional programs in 2010. These programs will be added to the existing portfolio of programs that were launched in 2009. Residential Appliances and HVAC (This a combination of the Efficient Appliances/Electronic, electric water heating kits and HVAC Equipment program listed in the 2009 Plan filing. Due to limited budgets in both these programs the energy savings goals and the budgets will be blended together to ensure savings goals are met. This revision was approved for municipal utilities by the MPSC staff in the fall of 2009.) Residential Multi-Family In-Unit Efficiency Business Pilot/Emerging Technology Programs Page 7 of 8 Summary of Energy Optimization Programs for 2010 The table below shows: a) applicable revisions/adjustments from the 2009 programs; b) 2010 Plan Filing goals and 3) the revised energy savings and expenditure goals for 2010 programs. 2010 Energy Optimization Program Portfolio 2009 Revisions Program Portfolio kWh Savings Revisions 2010 Plan Filing Goals 2010 Revised Goals Budget Revisions Gross First Year kWh Savings 1,880 4,677 3,040 7,569 Program Budget Gross First Year kWh Savings Program Budget Low Income Services 2,892 Efficient Lighting -2,067 -760 24,979 2,077 22,912 1,317 Refrigerator/Freezer Recycling 34,628 5,863 47,154 6,684 81,782 12,547 Efficient Appliances & HVAC -0- -0- 2,717 1,343 2,717 1,343 Multi-Family In-Unit Efficiency -0- -0- 26,550 2,768 26,550 2,768 Educational Services -0- -1 6,947 570 Pilot/Emerging Technology NA NA NA NA NA NA Subtotal - Residential Solutions 35,453 6,982 113,024 16,482 148,477 23,464 6,946 569 Multi-Family Common-Area NA NA NA NA Prescriptive Incentive Program 36,539 531 78,297 10.974 Custom Incentive Program 21,391 -1,576 32,086 4,620 Educational Services -1 -1 6,947 570 Pilot/Emerging Technology NA NA 23,157 1,900 23,157 1,900 Subtotal - Business Solutions 57,929 -1,046 140,487 18,064 198,416 17,018 5,936 253,511 34,546 346,893 40,482 Total Program Portfolio 93,382 NA 4,920 NA 114,836 11,505 53,477 3,044 6,946 569 CER Program Administration -1 1,900 Evaluation (EM&V) -2 1,520 1518 Subtotal - Admin/Evaluation -3 3,420 3,417 Page 8 of 8 1,899 ATTACHMENT A City of Eaton Rapids U_15859 Semi-Annual Energy Optimization Report December-09 Current Period All Programs (excluding Low Income) Low Income Programs Residential Secondary Primary Un-Metered 0.0008 4.04 100.01 0.89 8.56 Per Per Per Per Kwh Meter Meter Month Per Meter To the best of our knowledge City of Eaton Rapids U_15859 has met the requirements of Public Act 295 regarding the Energy Optimization Program during the reporting period ::i~ -fej Date-!1- 2.6. - Year to Date City of Eaton Rapids U_15859 Semi-Annual Energy Optimization Report Dec-09 EO Credits Generated (kWh) ~ Billed Revenue Less Revenue Tax Net Revenue Efficent Lighting Refregertion Recycling Education 2,422 5,954 354 2,422 5,954 354 22,050 8,239 4,206 Total Residential Programs 8,730 8,730 34,495 Commercial and Industrial Prescriptive Custom Education 6,171 3,818 290 376 233 18 978 605 46 7,526 4,656 354 22,150 10,280 627 1,630 12,536 26,356 478 383 572 458 35 28 91 73 1,176 942 9,592 11,310 690 1,793 23,384 (3,008) (5,746) 4,315 (1,631) Total C&I Programs Administration Evaluation Low Income Programs Total Expense/EO Credits Over(Under) Collection 205 (5,865) 4,206 60,851 City of Eaton Rapids U_15859 Budget to Actual Comparison, EO Program Expenditures December-09 Actual Year-to-Date Percentage of Budget Budget to Actual Budget Residential Efficent Lighting Refregertion Recycling Education 2,422 5,954 354 1,662 5,863 353 (760) (91) (1) Total Residential 8,730 7,878 (852) Commercial and Industrial Prescriptive Custom Education 7,526 4,656 354 8,057 3,080 353 531 (1,576) (1) 93.41% 151.17% 100.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12,536 11,490 (1,046) 109.10% 1,176 942 1,175 940 1,880 (1) (2) 1,880 100.09% 100.21% 0.00% 23,384 23,363 (21) 100.09% Total Commercial and Industrial Administration Evaluation Low Income Total Program Expenditures 145.73% 101.55% 100.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 110.81% City of Eaton Rapids U_15859 Budget to Actual Comparison, EO Credits (kWh) December-09 Actual Year-to-Date Budget to Actual Budget Percentage of Budget Residential Efficent Lighting Refregertion Recycling Education 22,050 8,239 4,206 19,983 42,867 4,205 (2,067) 34,628 (1) Total Residential 34,495 67,055 32,560 22,150 4,206 58,689 21,391 4,205 36,539 21,391 (1) 26,356 84,285 57,929 37.74% 0.00% 100.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 31.27% 2,892 2,892 0.00% 154,232 93,381 39.45% Commercial and Industrial Prescriptive Custom Education Total Commercial and Industrial Low Income Total EO credits 60,851 110.34% 19.22% 100.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 51.44% ATTACHMENT B Attachment B City of Eaton Rapids Verification of Savings of 2009 Energy Optimization Programs Final Report Prepared for: City of Eaton Rapids KEMA Contact: Timothy Hennessy, 517-529-6277, timothy.hennessy@us.kema.com Clark Lake, Michigan, Monday, March 15, 2010 Experience you can trust. Copyright © 2008, KEMA, Inc. The information contained in this document is the exclusive, confidential and proprietary property of KEMA, Inc. and is protected under the trade secret and copyright laws of the U.S. and other international laws, treaties and conventions. No part of this work may be disclosed to any third party or used, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without first receiving the express written permission of KEMA, Inc. Except as otherwise noted, all trademarks appearing herein are proprietary to KEMA, Inc. Table of Contents E 1 2 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... E-1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 Verification of Savings Estimates........................................................................................... 1 Appendix A The BWL and MPPA Energy Efficiency Service Committee Utilities..................... 1 Appendix B Program Descriptions ............................................................................................ 2 Residential Programs............................................................................................................. 2 Commercial and Industrial Programs..................................................................................... 2 Self-Directed Customers ........................................................................................................ 3 Appendix C Analysis Methodology ........................................................................................... 4 Residential Efficient Lighting and Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Programs ............................ 4 Sampling Methodology ................................................................................................. 4 Sample Selection.......................................................................................................... 5 Verification Methodology .............................................................................................. 6 Commercial and Industrial Prescriptive and Custom Programs ............................................ 7 Sampling Methodology ................................................................................................. 7 Sample Selection.......................................................................................................... 9 Verification Methodology ............................................................................................ 11 Residential Low Income Services and Education Services Programs and Commercial and Industrial Education Services Program ................................................................................ 12 Verification Methodology ............................................................................................ 12 Self-Directed Customers ...................................................................................................... 13 Appendix D Verification of Savings Estimates ........................................................................ 13 Residential Efficient Lighting Program Survey ..................................................................... 13 Survey Results ........................................................................................................... 13 Savings Estimates ...................................................................................................... 16 Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program Survey ..................................................................... 16 Survey results ............................................................................................................. 16 Savings Estimates ...................................................................................................... 18 Commercial/Industrial Prescriptive Incentive Program and the Commercial/Industrial Custom Incentive Program .................................................................................. 18 Appendix E Tracking Data Summary ...................................................................................... 21 C&I Prescriptive Program and C&I Custom Program .......................................................... 21 City of Eaton Rapids i March 2010 Table of Contents Residential Refrigerator Pick-up Program ........................................................................... 23 Residential Lighting Program ............................................................................................... 23 Appendix F Efficient Lighting and Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program Surveys ................ 25 Efficient Lighting Program .................................................................................................... 25 Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program ................................................................................. 27 Appendix G On Site Verification Form .................................................................................... 29 Appendix H Utility Manager Interview Guides ......................................................................... 30 Appendix I C&I Verified Measures ........................................................................................ 34 List of Tables Table E 1 City of Eaton Rapids Energy Optimization Goal, Actual and Verified Savings (kWh) E1 Table 1 Initial C&I On-Site Verification Sample Designs ............................................................ 10 Table 2 Final C&I On-Site Verification Sample Designs ............................................................. 11 Table 3: Number of CFLs Received ............................................................................................ 14 Table 4: All CFLs Installed .......................................................................................................... 14 Table 5: Where CFLs are Installed ............................................................................................. 15 Table 6: Number of Hours CFLs Operated, Per Day .................................................................. 15 Table 7: Satisfaction Ratings ...................................................................................................... 15 Table 8: No. of Refrigerators/Freezers Owned and Used ........................................................... 17 Table 9: Motives for Program Participation ................................................................................. 17 Table 10: Newly Purchased Refrigerator/Freezer an EnergySTAR Model ................................. 17 Table 11: Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in Program Rating ............................................................. 18 Table 12 C&I Prescriptive and Custom Incentive Program Results ............................................ 20 Table 13 Summary of C&I Program Tracking Data .................................................................... 22 City of Eaton Rapids ii March 2010 Table of Contents List of Equations Equation 1 Sample Size for a Proportion ...................................................................................... 5 Equation 2 Estimation of a Population Proportion ........................................................................ 7 Equation 3 Estimation of Verified Savings .................................................................................... 7 Equation 4 Primary and Secondary Equations ............................................................................ 8 Equation 5 The Initial Sample Size Calculation ............................................................................ 8 Equation 6 Combined Ratio Estimation ..................................................................................... 12 Equation 7 Calculating the Statistical Precision .......................................................................... 12 City of Eaton Rapids iii March 2010 E Executive Summary The Lansing Board of Water & Light and the Michigan Public Power Agency Energy Efficiency Service Committee (BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee) is a group of twenty-four Michigan municipal electric utilities that was formed to mutually verify the savings of similar 2009 Energy Optimization (EO) programs as required by the State of Michigan’s 2008 Public Act 295 (PA 295) SEC. 71. (3)(i). The evaluation of BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee 2009 EO programs was conducted in January 2010. The evaluation estimated verification rates (i.e., the measures that were installed and operating as planned) using statistical sampling of participants across participating municipal utilities. These estimates were than applied to the participation parameters of specific member utilities. This report presents the verification of energy savings for the EO programs implemented by City of Eaton Rapids. Table E 1 recapitulates the verification findings, including the EO savings goals with the actual (i.e., deemed savings) and the verified savings for the City of Eaton Rapids. Program Residential Low Income Services Program Efficient Lighting Program Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program Education Services Program Commercial and Industrial Commercial/Industrial Prescriptive Incentive Commercial/Industrial Custom Incentive Program Business Education Services Program Self Directed Goal Actual Verified 2,892 19,983 42,867 4,205 22,050 8,239 4,205 NA 27,790 8,239 NA 58,689 80,080 4,205 126,000 22,150 4,205 NA 22,041 NA NA Table E 1 City of Eaton Rapids Energy Optimization Goal, Actual and Verified Savings (kWh) City of Eaton Rapids E-1 March 2010 1 Introduction The Lansing Board of Water & Light and the Michigan Public Power Agency Energy Efficiency Service Committee (BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee) is a group of twenty-four Michigan municipal electric utilities (For a list of participating utilities, see Appendix A ) that was formed to mutually verify the savings of similar 2009 Energy Optimization (EO) programs as required by the State of Michigan’s 2008 Public Act 295 (PA 295) SEC. 71. (3)(i). The ultimate goal of the evaluation was specified as the verification of incremental energy (kWh) savings for the BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee members EO programs. The BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee have chosen to accept the savings estimates from the Michigan Energy Measures Database (MEMD). The MEMD contain values that were current at the time the associated energy optimization plans were approved by the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC or the Commission), or engineering estimates current at the time the energy optimization plans were approved by the MPSC for measures not included in the MEMD as the source for gross energy savings. Accordingly, the objectives of the evaluation are to verify that measures are installed and operating as planned and to deliver a final annual report that provides the energy savings for each utility. This report presents the verification results for the City of Eaton Rapids. Following this introductory section, the next section presents a recapitulation of the estimates of savings for programs implemented by the City of Eaton Rapids. The appendices provide supporting documentation, analytical approaches as well as generic descriptions of programs that the BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee members may have implemented. 2 Verification of Savings Estimates Residential The City of Eaton Rapids reported that the deemed savings estimate for the Residential Efficient Lighting Program was 22,050 kWh. The analysis of this Residential Efficient Lighting Program yields a verified savings estimate of 27,790 kWh. Using the variance of the estimate yields a confidence interval of ± 3,648 kWh (±13.1%). City of Eaton Rapids 1 March 2010 The City of Eaton Rapids reported that the deemed savings estimate for the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program was 8,239 kWh. Based on the analysis of the program the verified savings estimate is 8,239 kWh. There was no variance associated with this estimate. The City of Eaton Rapids is partnering with a community action agency to implement a low income program. Because of the agencies backlog, this program did not have any participants in 2009. The City of Eaton Rapids offered a Residential Education Program in 2009. The City of Eaton Rapids did not estimate the number of participants. The City of Eaton Rapids worked with science classes at the local high school to set up recycling of light bulbs initiative. In addition, the City purchased newspaper advertising. Based on the assumed savings associated with the Residential Education Program budget, the City of Eaton Rapids estimated that this program saved 4,205 kWh. Commercial and Industrial For the C&I Prescriptive Program, the verification rate was estimated to be 99.5%, with a 90% confidence interval of ±3.06%. The City of Eaton Rapids reported that the deemed savings estimate for the C&I Prescriptive Program was 22,150 kWh. Accordingly, the verified savings estimate is 22,041 kWh, with a confidence interval of ± 676 kWh. The City of Eaton Rapids did not have any C&I Custom Program participants. City of Eaton Rapids offered a Business Education Program in 2009. The City of Eaton Rapids estimates that there were 6 participants For this program City of Eaton Rapids met with several local commercial business customers for in-person presentations on prescriptive programs offered for business. These were casual conversations to explain the utility program, the objectives to help reduce electric consumption, and rebates available through the lighting program and for HVAC efficiency. Based on the Business Education Program budget the City of Eaton Rapids estimates that the Business Education Program saved 4,205 kWh. City of Eaton Rapids 2 March 2010 Self-Directed Program For 2009, the City of Eaton Rapids had one self-directed EO Plan customer (Self Directed Customer). At the City of Eaton Rapids request for documentation, the Self-Directed Customer submitted support for its program. The Self-Directed Customer set savings targets of 126 MWh and 210 MWh for the 2009 and 2010 program years respectively. It claimed to have exceeded its 2009 target and achieved 145.7 MWh in savings through “lighting improvements,” “machine capacitor” measures, and “insulated furnace” projects. Documentation was not provided to indicate the improvements that were actually made as part of each of these projects or how the savings were calculated. Therefore, an engineering review of the claimed savings was not performed City of Eaton Rapids 3 March 2010 The BWL and MPPA Energy Efficiency Service Committee Utilities Appendix A The 24 municipal utilities with EO programs to be evaluated include the following: • Lansing Board of Water & Light • Lowell Light & Power • Bay City Electric Light & Power • Niles Utility Department • City of Charlevoix • City of Paw Paw • Chelsea Dept. of Electric & Water • City of Petoskey • Croswell Light & Power • City of Portland • Detroit Public Lighting Department • City of Sebewaing • City of Dowagiac • City of South Haven • City of Eaton Rapids • City of St Louis • Grand Haven Board of Light & Power • City of Sturgis • City of Harbor Springs • Traverse City Light & Power • City of Hart Hydro • Wyandotte Dept. of Municipal Service • Holland Board of Public Works • Zeeland Board of Public Works City of Eaton Rapids 1 March 2010 Appendix B Program Descriptions The BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee municipal utility members offered a variety of residential, commercial and industrial EO programs. This appendix briefly and generically describes the programs that may have been offered by the individual utilities. The individual utilities determined which of the specific programs were offered to their customers, as well the appropriate implementation approach. Residential Programs Efficient Lighting Program: This program promotes the installation of ENERGY STAR fixtures, compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs), ceiling fan lights, and LED holiday lighting. The measures were distributed to participants in various methods, according to the utilities preference. The distribution methods included: in-store promotion; special sales: internet orders; coupons; over the counter at the utility offices; or at events (i.e. home shows) The Efficient Lighting Program was marketed in various ways such as through the utility website and through return cards that were mailed out to customers. The Efficient Lighting Program also provides opportunities for recycling CFLs. Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program: This program encourages customers to dispose of “second” refrigerators and encourages the accelerated retirement of older, inefficient “primary” refrigerators and freezers. The program offers turnkey pick up and recycling services. Low Income Services Program: This program provides funding to upgrade the energy efficiency of customers living on limited incomes by subsidizing the installation of cost effective electric measures. The delivery of the program is coordinated with local weatherization or Low Income Assistance agencies. Education Services: This program provides informative and actionable educational materials to residential customers that communicate to and educate customers on the benefits of energy efficiency and conservation. Such materials include brochures, fact sheets, workshops, web sites and online energy audits. Commercial and Industrial Programs Prescriptive Incentive Program: This program affects the purchase and installation of high- City of Eaton Rapids 2 March 2010 efficiency electric technologies in the commercial and industrial sectors through a combination of market push and pull strategies that stimulate market demand while simultaneously increasing market provider investment in stocking and promoting high-efficiency products. Business customers can apply for incentives averaging 20% to 40% of the incremental cost of purchasing qualifying technologies. The program engages market provider support through a targeted outreach effort. Custom Incentive Program: This program helps customers and market providers identify more complex energy savings projects, analyze the economics of each project and complete a customized incentive application. Business Education Services Program: This program provides informative materials and training opportunities to educate business customers on the benefits of energy efficiency and conservation. Such materials may include brochures, fact sheets, case studies, web sites, and training seminars. Self-Directed Customers Certain customers that meet specific criteria can opt out of utility sponsored Energy Optimization Programs, and the attendant rate surcharges. To be eligible to become “selfdirect" a customer must have an annual peak demand in the preceding year of at least two megawatts at each site or an aggregate of ten megawatts for all of its sites, and notify its electric provider of its intent to implement a self-directed energy optimization program. The customer was then required to file a self-directed energy optimization plan with their electric provider by January, 2009. For administrative efficiency, customers were required to file their self-directed plans using a Commission-designed standardized template. This template includes projected energy savings estimates. Once a customer began to implement the self-directed plan at a site covered by the plan, the site was exempt from the surcharge and not eligible for the provider's energy optimization activities. A self-directed energy optimization plan was considered complete, and the customer exempt from the provider's surcharge after the start date of the first action item of the customer's self-directed energy optimization plan. City of Eaton Rapids 3 March 2010 Appendix C Analysis Methodology For each of the programs, an appropriate evaluation approach was developed. This section describes the methodologies used for each program, including the sampling methodology, the sample selection process and the analysis approach Residential Efficient Lighting and Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Programs Sampling Methodology The sample design from the verification of the Residential Efficient Lighting Program and Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Programs is predicted on the assumption that the verification estimate is a proportion of the measures that were installed and operating as intended. The equations to determine required sample size based for a proportion, at a certain level of confidence and specified confidence interval are shown in Equation 1. City of Eaton Rapids 4 March 2010 2 z pq d n 2 0 n 1 n 1" n 0 0 !1 N Where, n0 = the required sample size before adjusting for the size of the population, z = a constant based on the desired level of confidence, e.g., 1.645 for the 90% level of confidence, p = the proportion of participants with the attribute. q =1-p d = the desired confidence interval, n1 = the required sample size after adjusting for the size of the population using the finite population correction factor, N = the population size, i.e., the number of participants with a particular measure. Equation 1 Sample Size for a Proportion At the time the sample was designed it was not known what the expected verification percentage (p) would ultimately be. Based on experience, it could be assumed that there is a high rate of compliance (e.g., 90%). However, to be on the conservative side, the sample should be designed to reach the lowest level of expected compliance. Assuming a very conservative 75% compliance rate, the sample size to achieve ±10% relative confidence interval at the 90% confidence level would be 203 for the Residential Lighting Program and 171 for the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program. Sample Selection The tracking information for the Residential Efficient Lighting Program presented challenges to the sample selection (see Appendix E ). Eight of the utilities maintained electronic data bases City of Eaton Rapids 5 March 2010 of participants that could be used in the survey. For the verification, it was assumed the rate that the bulbs were installed and operating as intended was consistent across all municipals. The survey was constrained by the schedule, and needed to be implemented over a two week period. This precluded multiple mailings to increase the response rate. To achieve the most returns, a very conservative estimate of response rate was used. Accordingly, approximately 1,000 participants were randomly selected. The ultimate confidence interval is dependent by the estimated compliance rates and the number of surveys returned. Verification Methodology Customer verification data were collected for the Residential Efficient Lighting and the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Programs through the use of a mail survey. A random sample of 387 efficient lighting customers and 767 refrigerator customers were selected from all participating efficient lighting and refrigerator turn-in customers. The replies from the sampled customers determined the compliance rate (i.e., the percentage of measures that are installed and operating as planned) for each programs. KEMA designed separate letters and surveys for each program (See Appendix F ), and sent three group mailings between January 8, 2010 and to January 14, 2010 to sampled customers. A total of 195 Efficient Lighting Program and 325 Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program responses were returned. Lighting participants were asked: # # # # # # To verify they did participate in the program How many CFLs they received Are they using all of the CFLs Where these lamps were installed (kitchen, bathroom, bedroom, etc.) Typical hours per day the CFLs were used How satisfied were they with the CFLs (on a 1 to 10 ranking) Refrigerator Turn-In Participants were asked: # # # # # To verify they did participate in the program How many refrigerators/freezers they still own and use Reason for participating; either a) no need for an extra one or b) looking to replace with a new one If a new refrigerator was purchased, was it Energy STAR rated How satisfied were they with the program (on a 1 to 10 ranking) From the returned surveys, proportions of the measures that were installed and operating as intended were estimated. City of Eaton Rapids 6 March 2010 pˆ Estimate: n /n o se( pˆ ) Standard error: Confidence interval: ) pˆ $1 ! pˆ % & n & ( & n pˆ $1 ! pˆ % & 1! N n ' When N is large pˆ * z se$ pˆ % Equation 2 Estimation of a Population Proportion In Equation 2 n0 represents the number of measures installed and operating as expected, n is the total number of bulbs. The verified savings were estimated using Equation 3. s ˆ St p* v Where: sv=Verified Savings St=Reported total savings based on the deemed savings Equation 3 Estimation of Verified Savings Commercial and Industrial Prescriptive and Custom Programs Sampling Methodology The C&I verification uses model based statistical sampling (MBSS) to guide the sample design. This technique used a statistical model and its parameters to represent prior information about the population to be sampled. The model describes the nature of the variation in the relationship between a key target variable y of the study (called the dependent variable), in this case the actual amount of program energy savings and an explanatory variable x, in our case the tracking system estimate of savings. The model is used to help choose the sample size n and to help formulate a sample design with near-optimal stratification for stratified ratio estimation. The model describes the trend and the variation around the trend, i.e., the City of Eaton Rapids 7 March 2010 conditional mean and standard deviation of y given x. The model is used as a guide to the sample design, but the results of the study itself are not strongly dependent on the accuracy of the model. Once the sample design is selected, the subsequent analysis of the data is usually based only on the sample design and not on the model used to develop the sample design. In particular, conventional stratified-sampling techniques can be used to analyze the sample data collected from an MBSS sample design. The resulting estimates will be almost unbiased in repeated sampling and the confidence intervals will also be valid, provided that the sample design is followed. yi .i , xi " + i sd $+ i % . 0 xi- Equation 4 Primary and Secondary Equations Equation 4 illustrates the primary and secondary equations of the model that is used in the sample design. Here xk >0 is the tracking system estimate of energy savings, and is known for each participant, k, in the population. The residuals are considered to be N independent random variables with zero expected value and standard deviations following the secondary equation. There are three parameters in the model: (beta), !o(sigma-naught), and " (gamma). The coefficient beta is a fixed constant apply to the known tracking estimate xk to predict the actual savings yk . !k is the residual standard deviation of each unit k. Both the expected value µk and residual standard deviation !k generally varies from one unit to another depending on xk, following the primary and secondary equations of the model. In statistical jargon, the ratio model is a (usually) heteroscedastic regression model with zero intercept. Gamma describes how the standard deviation varies in relationship to the tracking system estimate of savings. n n0 1" n0 N Where: D is the desired relative precision, and z corresponds to the desired confidence level. Equation 5 The Initial Sample Size Calculation City of Eaton Rapids 8 March 2010 Using MBSS techniques in sample design minimizes the uncertainty of the results by controlling the variation of the sample. Accordingly, for the C&I verification the initial sample size was determined using Equation 5. Sample size is based on an assumed “error ratio”1. The true error ratios were not known. However, based on past experience, a high level of compliance should be expected. Using the assumptions that there is a fairly strong association between the actual savings and the tracking savings (error ratio of 0.4) and that there will be a 90% compliance rate, yields preliminary sample sizes of approximately 35 for the Prescriptive Program and 20 for the Custom Program2. The next step in the sample design is to choose the number of strata. Typically, in evaluations such as these three strata are chosen (small medium and large). Next, stratum boundaries are determined so there is approximately equal amount of variance in each stratum. To do this the tracking estimates of savings are sorted. The participant savings are raised to the assumed (x") gamma. This is a proxy for !i = !o x". The relative cumulative sum of the x" is then calculated. The strata cut points identified as the multiples of the cumulative sum divided by the number of strata. For the sample design for both C&I program verification, the value of gamma was assumed to be 0.8. Sample Selection Initially, the verification project was provided tracking data for the 21 utilities that implemented the C&I Prescriptive Program and C&I Custom Program. There were a total of 180 prescriptive projects and 37 custom projects in the tracking system. The original budget called for 50 on-site verifications. The sample points were allocated consistent with the preliminary sample design: 33 to the Prescriptive Program and 15 to the Custom Program. The sample designs are shown in Table 1. The population was randomly sorted, and an initial sample was drawn. 1 The error ratio is defined as the ratio between (a) the sum or average of the residual standard deviations of all customers in the model, and (b) the sum or average of the expected values of y. The error ratio is similar to the coefficient of variation 2 With an assumed desired confidence interval of ±10% and at the 90% confidence level. City of Eaton Rapids 9 March 2010 Strata 1 2 3 Total Strata 1 2 3 Total Prescriptive Program Sample Design Min Max Mean Savings Savings Savings N (kWh) (kWh) (kWh) 128 113 55,550 15,567 37 57,036 128,235 85,820 15 133,579 685,180 264,545 180 50,756 Custom Program Sample Design Min Max Mean Savings Savings Savings N (kWh) (kWh) (kWh) 18 280 31,982 10,486 15 33,262 120,610 64,273 4 182,194 300,009 215,987 37 54,508 Sample Size 11 11 11 33 Sample Size 5 5 5 15 Table 1 Initial C&I On-Site Verification Sample Designs After the initial sample was drawn, the sites were examined. There were two challenges. First, the measures at many of the sites were still being installed. This was particularly acute in Strata 3. After eliminating the projects that were not complete, there were only ten Prescriptive participants available for the Prescriptive sample’s strata 3. For the Custom sample, there was only one participant available in strata 3. After the sample was designed, two of the selfimplemented utilities provided several additional projects. These were added to the Custom population. These provided a few additional Strata 3 sample points. City of Eaton Rapids 10 March 2010 Strata 1 2 3 Total Strata 1 2 3 Total Prescriptive Program Sample Design Population Sample Mean Max Min Savings Savings Savings (kWh) n Mean (kWh) (kWh) N 128 113 55,550 15,567 10 22,261 37 57,036 128,235 85,820 13 85,686 15 133,579 685,180 264,545 10 219,960 180 50,756 33 51,773 Custom Program Sample Design Population Sample Mean Max Min Savings Savings Savings (kWh) n Mean (kWh) (kWh) N 42 23 31,982 7,853 6 18,671 20 2,661 120,610 69,349 7 80,091 6 182,194 685,180 222,689 3 222,030 68 44,896 16 54,679 Table 2 Final C&I On-Site Verification Sample Designs Table 2 shows the final C&I on site verification sample designs. This table shows that the samples have good coverage across the strata. Verification Methodology For the verification, an energy engineer conducted a quality control inspection of commercial and industrial participants of the C&I Prescriptive Program and C&I Custom Program. The engineer physically inspected all measures and commented on both the quality and the appropriateness for the participant. The inspector noted any problems with measure installation and recorded any customer comments expressing either satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the program, measures, and contractor services. The engineer inspected all of the measures or activities recorded in the participant’s program file. A copy of the on-site inspection form can be found in 0. The information gathered on site was used to verify the savings of the measures that were installed and operating as intended. The verified estimate of savings and the tracking system estimate of savings were used to develop a stratified ratio estimate of program savings. City of Eaton Rapids 11 March 2010 Equation 6 shows the ratio estimator. In this equation y denotes the on site verified estimate of savings, x denotes the tracking system estimate of savings, and w denotes the case weights. Ratio Estimate Mean n0 Bˆ 0 /w i yi /w xi y0 Total Bˆ 0 0 x 0 Yˆ0 i 1 n0 i Bˆ 0 X 0 wi where N h nh i 1 Equation 6 Combined Ratio Estimation In addition to the estimate of the mean demand and the population total of demand, the statistical precision associated with each variable estimate was also estimated. Equation 7 presents the three steps necessary to calculate the statistical precision associated with our combined stratified ratio estimator. ei 1. Calculate the residuals 2. Calculate 6 1 3 4 1 4 Xˆ 1 5 02 $ % se Bˆ 0 ˆ with X 0 3. Then se $ y 0 % yi ! Bˆ 0 xi n0 /w i n0 / w $w i i % ! 1 ei2 I 1 xi i 1 $ % $ % se Bˆ 0 0 x 0 and se Yˆ0 $ % se Bˆ 0 X 0 Equation 7 Calculating the Statistical Precision Residential Low Income Services and Education Services Programs and Commercial and Industrial Education Services Program Verification Methodology The municipal utilities may have self implemented the Residential Low Income Services and Education Services Programs and the Business Education Services Program. Accordingly, the verification of these programs was accomplished by conducting a survey and follow up interviews with the municipal utilities. The survey was designed to identify the actions that were City of Eaton Rapids 12 March 2010 taken by the municipal utility, how the programs were implemented, participation levels, and costs associated with each of these programs. A copy of the interview guide can be found in Appendix H . The verification was conducted through a brief 15 to 20 minute interview with the municipal utility officer responsible for these programs. A contact list of 24 municipal utilities and corresponding staffs was provided to KEMA. The MPPA initially contacted representatives from each municipal utility to inform them that KEMA would be contacting them to perform this interview. Immediately following, KEMA called a representative from each municipality to arrange a convenient day and time to conduct the interview and the appropriate utility manager or public official to be interviewed. Each official was also given the option of receiving the interview questions ahead of time. Interview questions posed to each official explored the funding of the various programs in 2009 and what the plans would be for each these programs in 2010. These interviews were conducted by KEMA staff between January 16, 2010 and January 22, 2010. Self-Directed Customers Self-directed customers were asked to submit a report to the municipal utility regarding their EO activities. A qualified independent energy engineer reviewed the submitted documentation and developed a short summation that recapitulates the activities, savings methodology, and savings estimates. The reports included a conclusion as to the veracity of the savings, e.g., the methods use to determine the savings estimates are commonly accepted, and that the savings estimates were reasonable. Appendix D Verification of Savings Estimates Residential Efficient Lighting Program Survey Survey Results A total of 195 surveys were returned by mail between January 9, 2010 and February 1, 2010. The tables below show the results of the survey responses. The tabulations per each question are different from the total survey count where a survey question was accidentally skipped by a respondent, wrongly answered (i.e. checking off both a “yes” and a “no”), or had a non-specific City of Eaton Rapids 13 March 2010 reply (ex. a customer wrote an answer below the question in the form of a comment, but did not check off any boxes). 1. Verification of participation. 190 respondents (97.5%) confirmed they received one or more CFLs from their municipal utility. However, five respondents (2.5%) said they have not yet received their CFLs. 2. Number of compact fluorescents received. Table 3 below shows the percentage of responses for the number of CFLs respondents said they received. No. of CFLs None3 1 to 3 4 GT 4 Percent 3% 30% 58% 9% Table 3: Number of CFLs Received 3. Installations. Customers were asked if they had used all of the CFLs they received; or if the response choice was “NO”, how many did they install. Table 4 below shows the disposition of bulbs received (from the previous question, above) and the number of CFLs reported to be installed. The total number of CFLs reported to be installed is 439. Response % YES NO 63% 37% Table 4: All CFLs Installed 4. Room placements. Customers were asked what room(s) these CFLs were installed (Table 5, below). 3 These customers requested bulbs, but never received them. City of Eaton Rapids 14 March 2010 Room % Living Room (LR) 25% Kitchen (K) 14% Bedroom (BD) 18% Bathroom (BT) 10% Hallway (H) 13% Closet/Storage (CS) 3% Garage (G) 7% Other (O) 11% Total 100% Table 5: Where CFLs are Installed 5. Typical hours. Table 6 below shows the typical hours per day customers reported these CFLs were kept on during one day. The average number of hours respondents reported leaving the CFLs turned on was 5.2 hours and the median was 4 hours. Hours 1 to 2 3 to 4 5 to 7 GT 7 Pct 18% 34% 25% 23% Table 6: Number of Hours CFLs Operated, Per Day 6. Satisfaction rating. Customers were asked to rate their level of satisfaction, with 1 = “Poor” to 10 = “Excellent”. Table 7 below shows the frequencies and percentages. The average was 8.8, and the median was 9. Rating 1 to 5 6 to 7 8 to 9 10 Pct 17% 14% 24% 45% Table 7: Satisfaction Ratings City of Eaton Rapids 15 March 2010 Savings Estimates Based on the information derived from Table 3 the average participant received 3.54 bulbs. Table 4 shows that the average participant installed 2.57 bulbs. Accordingly, the installed and operating as intended percentage of bulbs is 72.5% with ±5% confidence interval. Many of the municipal lighting programs were not implemented until in the fourth quarter of 2009. Accordingly, participants may not have had the opportunity to install all of their bulbs. The 2010 verification of this program will include approaches to reduce the uncertainty associated with this estimate The MEMD assumes that the bulbs are used 840 hours annually. Based on the responses in Table 6, the participants indicated that the average annual operating hours of the bulbs was 5.24 hours per day or 1,923 hours ±143 hours annually. Based on the survey responses the median annual operating hours of the bulbs were four hours per day or 1,460 hours per year. The BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee recognizes that in some other studies found that self-reported hours of use are generally more optimistic than metered hour of use estimates. However, the BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee also recognize that the verified savings estimate for this evaluation is based on empirical observations derived directly from their actual program participant survey results. The BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee will incorporate methods to reduce the uncertainty associated with this estimate for the 2010 evaluation. Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program Survey Survey results A total of 325 surveys were returned by mail between January 9, 2010 and January 25, 2010. The tables below show the results of the survey responses. The tabulations per each question are different from the total survey count where a survey question was accidentally skipped by a respondent, wrongly answered (i.e. checking off both a “yes” and a “no”), or had a non-specific reply (ex. a customer wrote an answer below the question in the form of a comment, but did not check off any boxes). 1. Verification of participation. 325 respondents (100%) confirmed they participated. 2. Number of refrigerators or freezers still owned and used. Table 8 below shows the frequency of responses for the number appliances customers said they still own and use. City of Eaton Rapids 16 March 2010 No. of Refrigerators/Freezers Respondents (n=324) 0 7 1 158 2 128 3 25 more than 3 6 Total 324 Table 8: No. of Refrigerators/Freezers Owned and Used 3. Reasons for participating. Customers were asked if they participated because they had no or little need for an extra freezer or refrigerator, if they were looking to replace their old unit with a new unit anyway, or both. Table 9 below shows the distribution of answers. Reasons Frequencies No need for the extra refrigerator/freezer 207 Looking to replace the refrigerator/freezer 132 Table 9: Motives for Program Participation 4. EnergySTAR purchase. Those customers who stated they bought a new refrigerator or freezer were asked if they had purchased an EnergySTAR model. Table 10 below shows the frequency and percentage of those who claimed they had. Response Frequencies (n=194) % YES 121 62% NO 73 38% TOTAL 194 100% Table 10: Newly Purchased Refrigerator/Freezer an EnergySTAR Model 5. Satisfaction rating. 6. Table 11 below shows the frequencies of the satisfaction rating given by customers with 1 = “Poor” to 10 = “Excellent”. The average is 9.46 and the median is 10. City of Eaton Rapids 17 March 2010 Rating 1 to 5 6 to 7 8 to 9 10 Pct 2% 3% 18% 76% Table 11: Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in Program Rating Savings Estimates Based on the survey information all customers participated. Accordingly, the “installed and operating as intended” (i.e., refrigerator removed) percentage is 100%. There is no variability associated with this estimate. Commercial/Industrial Prescriptive Incentive Program and the Commercial/Industrial Custom Incentive Program The C&I Prescriptive Incentive and C&I Custom Incentive program savings were verified through participant on-site inspections. These inspections were performed during January 18, 2010 and January 23, 2010. A total of 49 site visits across the aggregate of the BWL and MPPA EE Service Committee service territories were performed. The site visits inspected 63 different types of measures. The tracking system savings and the verified savings for each of these measures can be found in Appendix I During the site visits the participants were informally interviewed on their perspectives of the programs. The comments received indicated that the programs were very successful and popular with the participants. In general, positive feedback was provided about working with the programs, and about the benefits of the energy saving measures installed. In multiple cases the representative indicated that they were so happy with the program measures that they installed additional measures in other areas of their facilities. In no case, did program participants indicate dissatisfaction with the program or with the program measures. Other comments received indicated that the new technology was such an improvement over their prior equipment that they had noticed productivity gains as a side effect of the new technology. Among many general statements of satisfaction with the new equipment, several representatives specifically mentioned that they had reworked production lines to take advantage of the new lighting and one representative said that efficiencies were realized City of Eaton Rapids 18 March 2010 because items were no longer getting lost in the warehouse (as they had with prior dim lighting), leading to reduced times to locate items and less redundancy in inventory. One area for improvement is to make certain that changes from the original project application are tracked in the program tracking database (Franklin). In multiple cases, the inspector completing the post-inspection form indicated that the project had changed its scope, with different quantities or equipment installed. In each case, the change was noted, and the project application amended to reflect the changes in measures and energy savings. The rebate check paid to the program participant reflected this changed application. However the program tracking database often contained the original entries instead of the amended quantities and equipment. This lead to inaccuracies in claimed savings that resulted in both under- and overreporting energy saved. Attention should be paid to ensuring that discrepancies and amendments to the project application uncovered during the post-inspection process flow back to the program tracking database so that utilities can claim full credit for savings realized by the program. Verification rates for each program were estimated using combined ratio estimation techniques. To minimize the impact of the addition of custom sites after the original sample design, the Custom Incentive program sample was post stratified. In addition, during the practical implementation of the on-site inspections, two prescriptive sites needed to be replaced. Table 12 shows a comparison between the population and the final tracking system average savings by strata. In addition this table shows the verified savings by strata. Based on the information derived from Table 12, the verification rates were derived. City of Eaton Rapids 19 March 2010 Prescriptive Program Sample Population Strata 1 2 3 Total Strata 1 2 3 Total Tracking Average Savings n N 128 15,567 10 37 85,820 13 15 264,545 10 180 50,756 33 Custom Program Population N 51 12 5 68 Tracking Average Savings 15,107 94,046 230,788 44,896 n 6 8 2 16 Tracking Verified Average Average Savings Savings 22,261 22,887 85,686 84,389 219,960 214,766 282,399 281,013 Sample Tracking Verified Average Average Savings Savings 29,640 31,049 87,531 87,997 205,167 206,758 52,762 54,019 Table 12 C&I Prescriptive and Custom Incentive Program Results For the C&I Prescriptive Program, the verification rate was estimated to be 99.5%, with a 90% confidence interval of ±3.06%. For the C&I Custom Program, the verification rate was estimated to be 102.3%, with a 90% confidence interval of ±2.51 City of Eaton Rapids 20 March 2010 Appendix E Tracking Data Summary The Residential Refrigerator Pick-up, Residential Efficient Lighting, C&I Prescriptive and the C&I Custom programs implemented by BWL and the MPPA Service Committee program do not enjoy an integrated tracking system. Tracking data is available from a variety of sources, depending on the program and utility. Generally, the tracking data available for the verification of these programs can be considered elementary. The tracking data for specific programs and utilities ranges from high quality to non-existent. This section briefly summarizes the tracking data available to the verification contractor, by program and utility. C&I Prescriptive Program and C&I Custom Program The 2009 summary information for the C&I Prescriptive and the C&I Custom Programs implemented by Franklin Energy was maintained in two files, one for the BWL and another other MPPA utilities. Table 13 shows a recapitulation of the savings by program found in Franklin Energy’s tracking system files.4 The BWL data base included a program indicator, project status, customer name, contact information, kW and kWh savings and incentive paid. The MPPA file contains spread sheets for each of the 20 MPPA utilities. Each spread sheet has a customer name, status, incentive paid and kWh savings, by program. There were three utilities that were self implemented (i.e., did not use Franklin Energy as an implementation contractor). Two of these utilities provided C&I project information to the evaluation. The third did not have any C&I program participants. One of the two self directed utilities did not provide complete information in time to be considered in the primary sample design. 4 The Franklin Energy tracking system was the basis for the sample design. The savings found in Table 13 were updated and finalized at the end of 2009. The final savings numbers are shown in the verification calculations and are presented in Error! Reference source not found.. City of Eaton Rapids 21 March 2010 Utility Bay City Charlevoix Chelsea Croswell Eaton Rapids Grand Haven Harbor Springs Hart Holland Lansing Lowell Niles Paw Paw Petoskey Portland Sebewaing South Haven St. Louis Sturgis Traverse City Wyandotte Zeeland Grand Total Prescriptive Custom kWh kWh Projects Savings Projects Savings 6 288,373 0 2 15,116 0 2 184,739 1 300,009 3 165,712 1 27,086 2 22,150 0 10 531,601 1 2,648 3 100,549 0 1 73,932 21 2,073,742 7 228,321 85 2,220,118 17 1,273,903 3 176,037 0 2 44,874 0 2 75,115 0 3 763,988 0 4 37,522 0 0 18 237,513 5 215,013 1 72,719 2 64,718 0 5 463,216 1 66,713 12 882,350 2 81,462 7 214,818 6 246,873 0 13 845,834 180 8,613,683 68 3,383,081 Table 13 Summary of C&I Program Tracking Data For each of the projects, Franklin maintains a project file with detail information about the project including application and other supporting information. For the sample design, files for all projects were requested. At the time of the sample design and selection Franklin was unable to provide all 2009 project files to the verification project, as they are in various locations, dependent upon the project status. At that time, project files associated with the Primary Sample were provided. The self implemented utilities did not provide any project files. City of Eaton Rapids 22 March 2010 After the sample design and an initial sample selection were made, the sites were reviewed. Only projects that had been through the final inspection stage Franklin could consider completed, and available for consideration in the verification process. Residential Refrigerator Pick-up Program The 2009 summary information for the Residential Refrigerator Program implemented by JACO was maintained in four files, two for the BWL and two for the MPPA utilities. Two files contained fairly comprehensive notes regarding the equipment pick-up up, including, type, brand, model, size, year, and other information. The other two files contained participant contact information. The two files were linked through an Order ID number. This information was complete for all utilities that used JACO as an implementation contractor. The self implemented utilities did not offer a refrigerator pick up program. Residential Lighting Program The residential lighting program was implemented in various ways with various contractors: # Four utilities, Holland, Grand Haven, Chelsea and Bay City used EFI fulfillment to distribute lighting measures, # BWL used Niagara Conservation to deliver their CFLs by website, # Eleven utilities, Charlevoix, Dowagiac, Eaton Rapids, Harbor Springs, Hart, Niles, Paw Paw, Petoskey, Portland, St. Louis, and South Haven had Franklin purchase lighting measures and these utilities distributed themselves. These were distributed in a variety of methods, such as handed them out at their front desk, at community events, etc. # Six utilities did not use Franklin for implementation; they are Croswell Light and Power Department, Traverse City Light & Power, Lowell Light & Power, Wyandotte Municipal Services, and the Zeeland Board of Public Works. The measures for these communities were handled in a variety of ways. # Detroit Public Lighting did not implement a lighting program. The 2009 summary information for the Residential Lighting was maintained according to how the program was implemented. The information had a range of quality: City of Eaton Rapids 23 March 2010 # The five utilities that implemented the program through website fulfillment had contact information of participants. # Of the eleven utilities that were supplied lighting measures by Franklin, three kept an electronic file of participants and contact information. Five kept hand written logs of participants, and one kept an electric file of participants that did not include names. Three of the utilities supplied by Franklin did not provide any lighting documentation. # Of the six utilities that did not use Franklin as an implementation contractor, three did not keep individual participant information. The remaining three did not respond to the data request for participant information. City of Eaton Rapids 24 March 2010 Efficient Lighting and Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program Surveys Appendix F Efficient Lighting Program Participant Name Address Re: Evaluation of the Utility Name or KEMA5 Efficient Lighting Program Dear Participant , Utility Name or KEMA is currently conducting a special study to better understand the amount of energy savings achieved by the Compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) program. Through this study, we will be able to further improve and continue offering energy efficient programs to customers such as you. We would like to complete this study by the end of the month. Your participation is very much appreciated by us. Utility Name or KEMA has hired a professional energy efficiency research firm, KEMA, to help in this study. There is a short survey enclosed with this letter. The survey is intended to learn how the Compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) program has worked for you. Please fill out this survey as soon as possible and mail it back in the self addressed envelope provided. If you have any questions about the program, you are welcome to call me at XXX-XXXX. For questions about this survey, please call Amelia Whitney from KEMA at (866) 904-8027 ext. 306. Sincerely, Manager Utility Name or KEMA 5 Some utilities had the letters set over under their name; others preferred that the letters were set out over the evaluation contractor’s ( KEMA) name. City of Eaton Rapids 25 March 2010 Please take a few moments to fill out the survey below at your earliest convenience. We would like to complete this study by the end of January, 2010. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to contact Amelia Whitney, from KEMA, at (866) 904-8027 ext. 306. Survey 1. Just to verify…did you get one or more compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFL) from your utility? ___YES ___NO 2. IF YES > How many did you receive? ____ 3. Are you using ALL of the CFLs you received? ___YES ___NO – If not, how many CFLs did you put in? _____ 4. Where did you decide to put these CFLs? Please check all that apply: ___ Living Room ___ Kitchen ___ Bedroom ___ Bathroom ___ Hallway ___ Closet/storage ___ Garage ___ Other (please specify) ______________ 5. What is the typical amount of hours per day that those CFLs are used? _____ 6. From 1 to 10 (1 = Poor, 10 = Excellent) how satisfied are you with the CFL bulbs? _____ (enter number here) Thank you for your participation! Please use the enclosed envelope to mail your completed survey back to us. City of Eaton Rapids 26 March 2010 Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-In Program Participant Name Address Re: Evaluation of the Utility Name or KEMA Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in program Dear Participant , Utility Name or KEMA is currently conducting a special study to better understand the amount of energy savings achieved by the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in program. This study will be able to further improve and continue offering energy efficient programs to customers such as you. We would like to complete this study by the end of the month. Your participation is very much appreciated by us. Utility Name or KEMA has hired a professional energy efficiency research firm, KEMA, to help in this study. They have composed a short survey, enclosed with this letter. The survey is intended to learn how the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in program has worked for you. Please fill out this survey as soon as possible and mail it back in the envelope provided. If you have any questions about the program, you are welcome to call me at XXX-XXXX. For questions about this survey, please call Amelia Whitney from KEMA at (866) 904-8027 ext. 306. Sincerely, Manager Utility Name or KEMA Phone Email City of Eaton Rapids 27 March 2010 Please take a few moments to fill out the survey below at your earliest convenience. We would like to complete this study by the end of January, 2010. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to contact Amelia Whitney, from KEMA Services, at (866) 904-8027 ext. 306. Survey 1. Just to verify…did you participate in the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in program? ___YES ___NO 2. How many refrigerator/freezers do you still own and use? _____ 3. What were your reasons for participating (check all that applies): a. ___ No or little need for an extra refrigerator or freezer b. ___ Looking to replace it with a new refrigerator or freezer anyway 4. IF YOU HAVE BOUGHT A NEW REFRIGERATOR > Is it an EnergySTAR model? ___ YES ___ NO 5. From 1 to 10 (1 = Poor, 10 = Excellent) how satisfied were you with the Refrigerator/Freezer Turn-in program? ______ (enter number here) Thank you for your participation! Please use the enclosed envelope to mail your completed survey back to us. City of Eaton Rapids 28 March 2010 Appendix G On Site Verification Form Auditor AuditorName Appt Day / Time Utility UtilityName Company Company Name Address 123 Any St. City Anywhere Contact SiteContact Friday 10:30AM Phone 123-456-7890 Appointment Notes Meet SiteContact at the front desk when you get here, you can reach him on his cell phone at 7890. (123) 456- Measure or Model Details Date Qty Measure TCP Elite High Bay T5 10/15/2009 123 T5 HO 6 lamp double fixture Qty Verified Qty Operational Measure Verified YES NO (comment on difference in Notes) Notes: File name AuditedSiteDetails.pdf Semaphore 84 10/15/2009 234 T8 F32 4 lamp fixture Qty Verified Qty Operational Measure Verified YES NO (comment on difference in Notes) Notes: File name WattStopper HB300 10/15/2009 56 Occupancy sensor > 500W Qty Verified Qty Operational Measure Verified YES NO (comment on difference in Notes) Notes: File name Date: Auditor Signature City of Eaton Rapids 29 March 2010 Appendix H Utility Manager Interview Guides MUNICIPAL UTILITY NAME Evaluation of Energy Optimization Programs Municipal Interview Guide Thank you for agreeing to participate in this interview, which is being performed by KEMA on behalf of the MUNICIPAL NAME. KEMA has been selected by MUNICIPAL NAME to perform an evaluation of the Energy Optimization Programs for Low Income Services, Residential Education Services and Business Education Services Programs. Our goal is to gain a better understanding of the actions taken by municipal utilities to implement these programs, as well as the program participation levels and costs. The following questions will be asked during your scheduled interview. Your answers will help us gather information and insights on the program savings, the steps taken while implementing the programs, and program recommendations. Please feel free to contact us prior to your scheduled interview if you have further questions. We appreciate your time and participation in the Energy Optimization program and this evaluation. Sincerely, KEMA, Inc. City of Eaton Rapids 30 March 2010 Background 1) Just for background, can you please give me a brief description of your professional position: a. name of municipal utility b. position title - 2) What was your role with these programs in 2009? Low Income Services: Residential Education: Business Education: Program Implementation 3) Please briefly describe the overall program design, management and delivery. Were there any materials developed or applications used? For example, did you develop/distribute any of the following: bill stuffers; "goodie bags" (i.e. giveaway bags at events that might hold a CFL, brochure, tchotkes, etc.); brochures; giveaways (tchotkes, info wheels, etc.); EE information packets; CFLs (bought and distributed APART from the residential lighting program), posters, additional or new web site content? Low Income Services: Residential Education: Business Education: Program Participation 4) From what you know, what has been the actual or estimated number of program participants since its start: City of Eaton Rapids 31 March 2010 Low Income Services: Residential Education: Business Education: Program Costs 5) What were the final costs per each program? Please include any labor and cost of materials if that information is available for the Residential and Business Education programs. Low Income Services: Residential Education: Business Education: Program Recommendations 6) Is there anything you would do different or change for each of these programs? Low Income Services: Residential Education: Business Education: 7) What are you planning to do for these programs in 2010? City of Eaton Rapids 32 March 2010 Low Income Services: Residential Education: Business Education: City of Eaton Rapids 33 March 2010 Appendix I C&I Verified Measures These measures were observed during the on-site inspections. These savings were verified on behalf of all municipal utilities in the report. Measure 15 hp VFD 150W Induction Lights 1-way Directional 25 hp VFD 2-way case signs 3W LED lighting 4-way case signs 4-way Directional T 4-way Red Flash 5 hp VFD CFL Fixtures Digital Controls for Chiller (Trane Tracer Summit Chiller Plant Manager) High bay fluorescent fixtures HPT8 4ft 3 lamp HPT8 8ft 4 lamp LED exit signs LED recessed cans LED spotlight in gift shop LED Street Light retrofit Pedestrian sign (Hand & Man) Pulse Start Metal Halide removal of fourteen 8' 2L VHO x 452W used for 5200 hours/year Retrofit T-12 3 lamp fix to T-8 2 lamp fixture Retrofit T-12 4 lamp fix to T-8 2 lamp fixture Retrofit T-12 to T-8 2 lamp Retrofit T-12 to T-8 2 lamp fixture Retrofit T-12 to T-8 6 lamp fixture Retrofit task lighting (custom) T5 HO 12 Lamp fixture T5 HO 6 lamp T5 HO 6 lamp - double fixture T5 HO 6 lamp fixture City of Eaton Rapids Number Tracking Verified 1 15930 15930 1 66713 66713 1 3000 3000 1 26550 26550 1 310 310 1 31982 31983 1 465 465 1 3000 3000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1200 16230 684 1050 16230 0 193901 193901 56672 59654.74 9690 10260 120610 120612 4848.48 5430.298 2390.3 2390.3 3183 3183 9616 0 3600 5700 3870 3870 1 24151 32905.6 1 2110 2110 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11163 328 8673 157604 25268 73440 5837 34944 20685.6 11163 328 13279 238328 25268 73200 5610 34944 20685.6 34 Measure T5 HO and Occ Sensors T8 4 lamp fixture T8 6 lamp fixture T8 F32 6 lamp fixtures T8 F32 6 lamp High bay fixture T8 F32 8 lamp fixture T8 Utube fixture Upgrade HID to Induction lights Number Tracking Verified 1 9337 9337 1 35977.5 35977.5 1 112437 112437 1 40362 40362 1 73036 75919 1 17523 14927 1 3458 3458 1 17637 17637 Wall pack HID upgrade to CFL Bulb 10 hp VFD HPT8 4ft 2 lamp 1 2 2 HPT8 4ft 2 lamp fixture HPT8 4ft 4 lamp HPT8 Retrofit (custom) T5 HO 6 lamp double fixture T8 2 lamp fixture T8 3 lamp fixture T8 and Occ. Sensors Central Lighting Control LED exit sign Occupancy sensor 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Occupancy sensors 3 20317 20316.9 T8 F32 4 lamp fixture 3 59576 55264 < 50 HP drive HPT8 4ft 4 lamp fixture T5 HO 4 lamp CFL bulbs Occupancy sensor < 500W Occupancy sensor > 500W T5 HO 4 lamp fixture T8 F32 6 lamp fixture 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 8 11600 53700 11446 11600 43080 11446 19828 8774 20973 20973 30994 30994 314496 310128 18271 18937.25 18729 17529.75 65648 65648 46000 46000 11256 11256 23423 25805 216432 216432 58342 59004 358092 352800 165640 139582 59143 74239 35960 71962 541769 520993.2 1315609 1182991 March 2010