EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Wind Energy Outlook for North America
Wind Power Generation Capacity and Turbine
Deployments: Market Analysis and Forecasts
NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research
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contact Pike Research at sales@pikeresearch.com.
Published 3Q 2009
Gali Beh
Industry Analyst
Clint Wheelock
Managing Director
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
Section 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In 2008, U.S. wind power generation capacity passed the 25 GW mark by adding over 8
GW from the year before, which represented the largest individual gain of any country in
the world. This growth rate of 50% exceeded that of the year before (45%) indicating that
the market is still relatively young and the economic crisis that began in 2008 has not
slowed it down—at least not yet. In 2007, generation capacity from renewable sources
made up only 4% of the world’s electricity sources, but 16% of new electricity generation
capacity additions were from renewables with wind power making up more than 80% of
these gains by renewables.
The year 2009 will be a defining moment for wind power markets around the world. The
global economic crisis that began in late 2008 has thrown the industry into confusion, along
with most other global industries. Two competing market views exist, and representatives
from each camp were interviewed for this report across the wind power value chain, such
as components suppliers, turbine OEMs, wind developers, and power providers.
The optimist sees this moment as one of great opportunity and potential growth. The U.S.
has enacted renewable energy targets and incentives including feed-in tariffs, renewable
energy tax credits, and grants, all which attempt to level the economic playing field for
renewable energy versus traditional fuels. The recession, rather than dampening public
enthusiasm for renewable energy, has highlighted the need for government investments to
compensate for lack of private capital. Other fundamental drivers of the wind power market
are fairly recession-resistant. First, total demand for electricity is expected to keep
increasing, and electricity prices should continue to increase in the long term (even taking
into account wild swings in gas and oil prices such as experienced in 2008). Second, wind
energy has several key advantages over other renewable energies such as solar or
hydroelectric which accounts for why wind power made up more than 80% of new
renewable power capacity additions in 2007. Wind power has a lower lifetime cost of
kilowatt-hours (kWh) produced and requires less land conversion (in the case of solar) or
water diversion (in the case of hydroelectric). Further, wind energy forecasting models are
improving in accuracy at a rate unmatched by solar capture predictions. Finally, the wind
power market is also benefiting from technological innovations that continue to bring down
the overall price of installing and operating wind farms. Economies of scale are
accelerating as turbine capacities grow and new condition monitoring and control systems
continue to bring down operations and maintenance (O&M) costs as well as unplanned
stoppages. Overall, there is still tremendous opportunity for companies that commercialize
efficient, clean energy technologies as demand for more efficient, more secure, and
cleaner sources of electricity will continue to grow.
The pessimists say that although the wind energy market is still doing relatively well in
early 2009, the bottom won’t hit until late 2009 or 2010 since there is a long lag time in
shocks to the wind energy development process. The largest impediment to the growth of
wind power during a recession is its economic disadvantage to power from traditional fuels.
The current global economic crisis has generally dampened investor confidence and
capital availability. As a result, funding for wind energy projects has become significantly
tighter. Further, wind power growth is contingent on successfully overcoming current
transmission constraints in congestion, reliability, and access. Existing transmission lines
are not always located near wind resources, and it is infeasible to move a significant
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1
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
amount of electricity over long distances (for example, the U.S. is made of three fairly
separate and congested regional grids covered by different regulatory bodies).
Shock waves from the global economic recession will affect wind industry players
differently. Worst hit will be the small “mom-and-pop” developers that have invested
personal funds in pre-development costs but can no longer access the funding required to
pay for turbines or construction to complete their projects. One industry expert interviewed
for this report estimated that there are 300 GW of wind development projects in the queue
in the U.S. alone (defined as projects that have signed up to be in line for a connection to
the grid). Even if the record-breaking 8 GW of new capacity that was installed in the U.S. in
2008 continues, there would still be almost 40 years of projects in the U.S. pipeline. This
represents a significant opportunity for large developers with enough cash to pick up the
best pre-development projects for bargain prices. Still, one major developer has said that it
would not be placing any new turbine orders for delivery in 2011: “We have a lot of
properties to develop but it’s difficult to get credit financing, so we decided to scale back for
2009 and we have more turbines than we need.”
If it’s true that the demand for new turbines will stall or decline during the recession,
established turbine manufacturers may not feel the effects until 2010 because they are still
fulfilling orders made more than a year ago when turbine manufacturing lead times were
longer. Construction of current developments has continued on pace since the start of the
credit crisis in September 2008, with GE announcing that it would install 100 MW in the
U.S. (Illinois) and Mitsubishi confirming it would deliver around 400 MW to Iberdrola
Renewables in the U.S. through 2012. However, these will be fulfillments of orders placed
before the recession began. New orders are not expected to continue to grow at the rate
they have in recent years. Fortunately, many turbine manufacturers (OEM and
components) have long-term service contracts that bring in stable annuity revenues that
may somewhat compensate for declining new turbine orders. Replacing newly-aging fleets
(the wind industry is about 30 years old) may help further stimulate demand for new, larger,
more cost efficient wind turbines.
Pike Research’s perspective on the wind energy industry is that it will continue to grow, but
not at the pace that was expected prior to 2009. U.S. installed capacity may reach more
than 80 GW by 2015. To get there, turbine manufacturers must leverage opportunities and
deal with pressures from all sides. On the generally positive side, government policies are
favorable in terms of renewable energy targets (but questionable in terms of political will
and funding). Raw materials should be widely available, with the possible exception of
some specialty inputs such as fiberglass components, carbon fiber and permanent
magnets. Wind turbine manufacturers are improving industry profitability by tapping into
economies of scale in building larger turbines, improving component reliability, introducing
remote sensing and control systems, and continuing to invest in R&D. Wind power has
some important advantages over traditional and other renewable sources. Consumers
continue to be interested in renewable energy and demand for electricity will continue to
rise. The more troubled spots of the industry that are putting negative pressures on turbine
manufacturing are wind developers (due to financing problems) and transmission line
congestion, lack of reliability, and lack of remote access. Overall, Pike Research expects
the turbine sales in the U.S. to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% to
reach an annual production volume of almost 8,000 turbines (with an average capacity of
greater than 1 MW) by 2015.
© 2009 Pike Research LLC.
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express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
2
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
Figure 1.1
Industry Outlook for Turbine Manufacturing
Expected impact on
turbine manufacturers
Government
• Renewable energy
targets
Positive
Mixed
• Renewable energy
policies, political will,
and funding
Raw materials suppliers
• Concrete,
steel, copper
• Fiberglass
components,
carbon fiber,
magnets
Wind turbine manufacturers (OEM and components)
• Larger
capacities /
economies of
scale
• Component
reliability
• Remote
sensing and
control
• Continuous
R&D
Wind farm developers
• Credit crisis
• Voluntary
environmental
mitigation
Wind energy substitutes
Negative
Wind farm operators
Wind energy consumers
Power retailers
Transmission line owners and operators • Rising electricity
demand
• Capacity availability, remote
access, and reliability
• “Green” consumer
buying behavior
• Longer development lead
time than wind farms
• NIMBY (not in my
backyard) resistance
to development
• Rising electricity prices for
traditional fuels (long-term)
• Wind advantages over solar
and hydroelectric
(Source: Pike Research)
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3
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
Table 1.1 Summary of Opportunities and Challenges for Wind Power and Turbine Manufacturing
Source
Opportunity
Challenge
Government
policies
Renewable energy targets that support
state Renewable Portfolio Standards
(RPS) and goals.
The details behind actually reaching those
goals.
Consumer
demand
Consumers have a high interest in
increasing use of renewable power and
view wind power positively and in
comparison to other renewables.
Wind developers such as Horizon Energy
have begun to work with conservation
groups to mitigate for environmental
impacts of wind farms.
Developer
demand
Developers are still keeping
commitments on turbines already
ordered (20–30% deposit at risk).
Large developers are buying predevelopment projects from small
developers at low prices, improving
returns on investment for buyers and new
investors.
Substitutes
An expectation of continually rising fossil
fuel prices fuels interest in renewables
(even taking into account wild recent
swings).
Wind power is more cost efficient than
solar or hydro power over the lifetime of a
production facility.
The recession may cause some states to
abandon or fail to enforce their renewable
energy targets and policies.
Failure to deal with electricity transmission
constraints might critically hamper future
wind farm development.
The U.S. is still overcoming historical public
opposition to offshore wind development in
the U.S. Some landowners have concerns
about visual impacts and property values.
Some consumers are complaining that wind
is not exactly green since wind farm
production causes significant environmental
impacts over a large area from road and
transmission line construction as well as
turbine erection.
Developers already feeling the effects of the
credit crisis as tax equity investors become
hard to find
In populated coastal areas such as the East
coast, more wind development must go
offshore to find enough space. This
increases the costs of wind development,
though also increases average output.
It is thought that the highest potential wind
sites are already developed (or too remote
to develop). Therefore as time goes on,
average capacity factors across the world
may constantly decline.
The cost of installing new transmission lines
to reach remote wind farms continues to be
a significant factor in selecting sites, which
may drive down capacity factors further.
The 4x rise and subsequent fall of fossil fuel
prices in 2008 has slowed interest in quickly
substituting renewables for traditional
power.
All traditional power sources —coal, gas
and nuclear—are significantly less
expensive than solar. On a lifetime basis,
waste incineration and biomass provide
lower cost energy than wind power.
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4
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
Source
Opportunity
Challenge
U.S. wind industry is investing in
research and development to help better
predict wind speeds by location, which
should help make wind power more
predictable than solar power as well as
reduce costs.
Wind farms still require the existence of “hot
spinning reserves” of back-up traditional
power sources such as gas-fired plants that
can ramp up quickly when wind generation
abruptly falls off due to wind intermittency.
Thus building new wind farms may require
also adding new gas-fired plants.
Wind power is subject to more transmission
line constraints than solar since the sites
with the best wind potential are often
remote and far from existing transmission,
whereas sunshine is less correlated with
remoteness from transmission lines.
Turbines often still need to be specifically
designed to match particular power grid
characteristics of different countries. This
drives up design and manufacturing costs
by requiring specialized facilities for
different export markets.
Larger turbines add logistical costs and
complexities that need to be overcome with
new transportation and assembly
technologies.
Wind farms require less total land
conversion from agriculture than
concentrated solar developments
Turbine
manufacturers
Raw materials
Turbines are increasing exponentially in
capacities, which is driving down the
average cost of wind power production
due to significant economies of scale
New developments in telescoping (selferecting) tower technology may
drastically lower transportation costs and
open more high-wind sites to
development potential
New remote sensing technologies should
increase component reliability and
reduce unexpected downtime
Design innovations such as a two-blade
rotor and direct drive turbines (no
gearbox) may significantly reduce
production, transportation, and
operations and maintenance costs.
As the industry hits the 30-year maturity
mark, older turbines will increasingly
need replacement, driving up demand for
turbines above what will be used for new
installations.
Many raw materials needed in the
production of wind turbines are in ample
supply, such as concrete, steel, and
copper.
Turbine prices are falling with reduced
demand due to the economic crisis that
began in late 2008. It is unclear when prices
will stabilize or grow again.
Other raw materials would be in short
supply if many countries actually ramped up
wind development at the pace required to
meet national goals. These include
fiberglass, carbon fiber, permanent
magnets.
(Source: Pike Research)
© 2009 Pike Research LLC.
All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the
express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
5
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
Section 8
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Defining the Market ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Wind Power in the Context of All Electricity Sources .............................................................. 7 2.1.1.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity and Additions—All Sources .............................. 7 2.1.1.2 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity and Additions ................................. 9 2.2 Industry Growth Drivers .............................................................................................................. 10 2.2.1 Increasing Demand for Energy.............................................................................................. 11 2.2.2 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies ............................................................... 12 2.2.3 Advantages to Other Renewables ........................................................................................ 14 2.2.3.1 Lower Lifetime Costs than Solar and Hydroelectric ..................................................... 14 2.2.3.2 Potential Forecasting Improvements ............................................................................ 15 2.2.3.3 Less Land Use Impacts than Solar............................................................................... 17 2.2.4 Improvements to Existing Technologies ............................................................................... 18 2.2.4.1 Increasing Turbine Capacities ...................................................................................... 19 2.2.4.2 Self-Erecting Towers .................................................................................................... 21 2.2.4.3 Better Component Reliability ........................................................................................ 21 2.3 Implementation Issues ................................................................................................................ 21 2.3.1 Economical Disadvantages to Nonrenewable Sources ........................................................ 21 2.3.2 Transmission Line Constraints .............................................................................................. 22 Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 23 Technology Issues .................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Wind Turbine Basics ................................................................................................................... 23 3.1.1 Towers ................................................................................................................................... 24 3.1.2 Nacelles and Interior Components ........................................................................................ 25 3.1.3 Rotors—Blades and Hub....................................................................................................... 27 3.1.4 Wind Turbine Raw Materials ................................................................................................. 28 3.1.5 Types ..................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1.5.1 Horizontal Axis vs. Vertical Axis ................................................................................... 30 3.1.5.2 Upwind vs. Downwind................................................................................................... 31 3.1.5.3 Three Blades vs. Two Blades ....................................................................................... 31 3.1.5.4 Onshore vs. Offshore.................................................................................................... 32 3.1.5.5 Direct Drive vs. Traditional Geared Turbine ................................................................. 33 3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization .................................................................................... 33 3.1.6.1 Cost............................................................................................................................... 34 3.1.6.1.1. Equipment Costs ...................................................................................................... 34 3.1.6.1.2. Balance of Station Costs .......................................................................................... 36 3.1.6.1.3. Operations and Maintenance Costs......................................................................... 37 3.1.6.1.4. Refurbishment Costs................................................................................................ 37 3.1.6.2 Efficiency ...................................................................................................................... 38 3.1.6.3 Reliability ...................................................................................................................... 38 3.1.6.4 Scalability ...................................................................................................................... 39 3.1.6.5 Availability ..................................................................................................................... 39 Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 40 Market Forecasts and Demand Drivers .................................................................................................. 40 4.1 World Energy Generation by Region .......................................................................................... 40 © 2009 Pike Research LLC.
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Wind Energy Outlook
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4.2 World Renewable Energy Generation by Region ....................................................................... 40 4.2.1 Estimated Wind Energy Production by Region ..................................................................... 41 4.2.2 Wind Energy Forecasts, North America ................................................................................ 42 4.2.2.1 United States ................................................................................................................ 43 4.2.2.2 Canada ......................................................................................................................... 45 Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 48 Key Industry Players................................................................................................................................. 48 5.1 Established Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers................................................ 48 5.1.1 ACCIONA Energia ................................................................................................................. 48 5.1.2 Enercon ................................................................................................................................. 49 5.1.3 Gamesa ................................................................................................................................. 49 5.1.4 GE Wind Energy .................................................................................................................... 49 5.1.5 Mitsubishi Power Systems .................................................................................................... 50 5.1.6 Nordex Group ........................................................................................................................ 50 5.1.7 REpower Systems AG ........................................................................................................... 51 5.1.8 Siemens Energy Sector ......................................................................................................... 51 5.1.9 Suzlon Energy Limited .......................................................................................................... 52 5.1.10 Vestas ............................................................................................................................... 52 5.2 New Entrants and Innovators: Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers................... 53 5.2.1 American Superconductor (AMSC) and Windtec (subsidiary) .............................................. 53 5.2.2 Clipper Windpower ................................................................................................................ 54 5.2.3 Eozen .................................................................................................................................... 54 5.2.4 Nordic Windpower ................................................................................................................. 54 5.3 Turbine Component Manufacturers ............................................................................................ 55 5.3.1 Bosch Rexroth ....................................................................................................................... 55 5.3.2 LM Glasfiber .......................................................................................................................... 56 Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 57 Company Directory ................................................................................................................................... 57 Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 61 Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 61 Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 63 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 63 Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 65 Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 65 Section 10 .................................................................................................................................................. 66 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 66 Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 66 Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 67 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. 67 © 2009 Pike Research LLC.
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64
Wind Energy Outlook
for North America
Section 9
TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES
Chart 2.1
Chart 2.2
Chart 2.3
Chart 2.4 Chart 2.5
Chart 2.6 Chart 4.1 Chart 4.2 Chart 4.3 Chart 4.4 Chart 4.5 Chart 4.6 Chart 5.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007 ........................................................ 8 Global Electricity Capacity Additions: 2007............................................................................. 8 Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007 ..................................... 9 Global Renewable Electricity Capacity Additions by Source: 2007 ...................................... 10 Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006 ............. 11 Comparative Industry Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006 ................. 12 Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2005-2025 .... 40 Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD Europe and Japan: 2007 ........................... 41 Cumulative Wind Power Production, World Markets: 2006-2015 ......................................... 42 Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity, North America: 2006–2015 ......................... 43 Annual Wind Turbine Unit Sales, North America: 2007–2015 .............................................. 46 Annual Wind Turbine Revenues, North America: 2007–2015 .............................................. 47 Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2008 .................................... 48 Figure 2.1 American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, Energy Funding .................................. 13 Figure 2.2 Estimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Renewable Fuel Type........................................... 15 Figure 2.3 Wind Speeds Can Drop Suddenly......................................................................................... 16 Figure 2.4 Land Conversion from Agriculture: Wind vs. Concentrated Solar Energy ............................ 17 Figure 2.5 Causes of Bird Fatalities ....................................................................................................... 18 Figure 2.6 Wind Turbine Sizes Have Grown Dramatically Over 30 Years ............................................. 20 Figure 2.7 Estimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Power Production Plant Type ............................... 22 Figure 3.1 Diagram of a Sample Wind Turbine ...................................................................................... 24 Figure 3.2 Evolution of Turbine Tower Designs ..................................................................................... 25 Figure 3.3 Diagram of a Sample Nacelle................................................................................................ 27 Figure 3.4 Rotor Diameters Increased More Than 5X Since 1980 ........................................................ 28 Figure 3.5 Main Raw Materials Used in Wind Turbines: Concrete and Steel ........................................ 29 Figure 3.6 Other Key Raw Materials Used in Wind Turbines ................................................................. 29 Figure 3.7 Horizontal and Vertical Axis Designs .................................................................................... 31 Figure 3.8 Select Wind Turbine Prices, 2008 ......................................................................................... 35 Figure 3.9 Sample Capital Costs of an Installed Turbine: 1.5 MW Example, 2009 ............................... 36 Figure 3.10 Types of Repairs on Wind Turbines (2.5kW to 1.5MW), 2008 ............................................. 37 Figure 4.1 U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required Renewables ............................ 44 Table 1.1
Table 3.1 Summary of Opportunities and Challenges for Wind Power and Turbine Manufacturing ....... 4 Cost for Wind Turbine Components ...................................................................................... 38 © 2009 Pike Research LLC.
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65
Wind Energy Outlook
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Section 10
SCOPE OF STUDY
Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants in the wind power market, including turbine
manufacturers (OEMs and components suppliers), raw materials suppliers, EPC providers, wind power
developers, other balance of station manufacturers, and power providers and purchasers with a study of
the North American market for wind turbines and the expected growth of global wind power generation
capacity. Its major objective is to identify and evaluate the opportunities and challenges facing the
industry and to forecast likely future growth. The report also provides a review of major demand drivers as
well as key industry players within the competitive landscape.
The report’s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and
markets covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike
Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their
business models. The forecast period extends through 2015.
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Pike Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports.
The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person
interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts
are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including
but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations,
government agencies, and the investment community.
Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research’s analysts and the firm’s
staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited
within this report.
These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are
synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research’s reports. Great
care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown
and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their
methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients.
Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased
view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests
and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by
technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
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66
Wind Energy Outlook
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NOTES
CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula:
CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1.
CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire time frame in the title. Where data for fewer years are
given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter time frames may be
given as well.
Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments,
and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year
2009 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Pike Research wishes to acknowledge the generous contributions of industry experts who gave their time
and expertise by sharing their perspectives and experiences. These contributors include but are not
limited to: Jeff Brown (Nordic Windpower), Jason Fredette (American Superconductor Corp.), Clint Harris
(Renewable Resource Consultants LLC), Joel Johnson (Berrendo Wind), Bill Mahoney (University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research), Mark Trinnel (British Petroleum Alternative Energy), and Brian
Walshe (ION Consulting). In addition, several other key contributors wished to remain anonymous,
including representatives from major turbine and component manufacturers and global wind power
developers, and Pike Research is grateful for their assistance as well.
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67
Wind Energy Outlook
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Published 3Q 2009
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68