APARTMENT MARKET REPORT
Bay Area
San Francisco, San Jose & Oakland
© 2015 MPF Research
w w w.mpf research .co m
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1Q 2015
CONTENTS
Executive Summary
Market Fundamentals Supply Overview Product Niche Overview
Submarket Overview
San Francisco Submarkets
San Jose Submarkets Oakland Submarkets
Market Characteristics
Supplementary Market Statistics
Combined
San Francisco
San Jose
Oakland
Methodology
3
11
14
20
25
27
51
80
110
115
117
125
133
141
SAN FRANCISCO SUBMARKETS
1 Downtown San Francisco 2 SoMa
3 West San Francisco 4 North San Mateo County
5 Central San Mateo County 6 South San Mateo County 7 Marin County 29
32
36
39
42
45
48
SAN JOSE AREA SUBMARKETS 1 Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos 2 North Sunnyvale
3 South Sunnyvale/Cupertino
4 Santa Clara 5 West San Jose/Campbell
6 South San Jose 7 Central San Jose
8 East San Jose
9 North San Jose/Milpitas
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
OAKLAND SUBMARKETS 1 Fremont 2 Hayward/San Leandro/Union City 3 Oakland/Berkeley
4 Northwest Contra Costa County 5 Concord/Martinez
6 Northeast Contra Costa County 7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette 8 San Ramon/Dublin 9 Livermore/Pleasanton 82
85
88
92
95
98
101
104
107
©2015 MPF Research. This MPF Apartment Market Report is published quarterly by MPF Research, a division of RealPage, Inc.
Material in this report is for the sole and exclusive use of subscribers and may not be reprinted, resold, or recorded in any manner, in
whole or in part, without the specific written permission of MPF Research. Any infringement will be subject to legal redress.
At the heart of MPF Research’s operations, the company’s database of individual apartment community performances is the largest
in the industry. For the most recent quarter, occupancy and rent results were tracked for about 37,800 apartment communities with
more than 7.7 million units. Also, ongoing construction is monitored on a project‐by‐project basis in many cities.
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© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
Even with high development activity, Bay Area apartment rent growth remains in the double digits SNAPSHOT
COMBINED AREA
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
582,820
185,040
31.7%
SUPPLY Quarterly Supply
Annual Supply
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Supply Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply
1,525 units
9,167 units
1.5%
25,973 units
9,167 units
1,687 units
4,761 units
DEMAND Quarterly Demand
Annual Demand
Five‐Year Demand
Five‐Year Annual Demand Peak Five‐Year Annual Demand Trough Five‐Year Average Annual Demand
2,910 units
9,661 units
29,941 units
14,127 units
392 units
6,950 units
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change Five‐Year Peak
Five‐Year Trough
Five‐Year Average
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
96.9%
0.3
0.2
97.6%
96.0%
96.7%
0.4
RENT Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
$2,358
$2.826
1.0%
10.0%
12.4%
0.4%
7.6%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1.3%
10.2%
13.0%
2.3%
8.0%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply
Annual Demand
Occupancy
Annual Occupancy Change
Annual Rent Change
Annual Revenue Change
Annual Job Change
© 2015 MPF Research
10,479 units
9,384 units
96.8%
‐0.1
7.9%
7.8%
97,000
Overview: The Bay Area is home to a highly‐educated workforce and some of the world’s most innovative companies. Technology giants Apple, Cisco Systems, eBay, Facebook, Google, Intel, LinkedIn, Salesforce.com, Twitter and Yahoo – just to name a few – are locally based. The region’s ever‐growing technology sector and the strong construction, finance and tourism industries continue to drive the local economy. These core strengths overshadow the ongoing concerns surrounding housing affordability, highway congestion, inadequate public transportation and rising pension expense and health care costs for employees in the public sector. Like most other major metros, apartment development across the Bay Area has roared back. During the past year, apartment completions topped the 9,000‐unit mark, an unusually high level by local standards. Furthermore, work was under way on roughly 18,700 units at the end of 1st quarter 2015. And despite the 20‐year‐high construction levels recorded here over the past two years, the Bay Area saw annual rent growth reaccelerate over the past two quarters. Healthy apartment fundamentals remain synonymous with the Bay Area, and while rent growth will likely ease again due to the oncoming wave of supply, the slowdown is unlikely to be enough to remove the Bay Area from high atop the national leaderboard. Downside risks include increased housing regulation, affordable housing and socio‐political issues. What changed this quarter? Quarterly apartment demand swung into solidly positive territory following a seasonal slow 4th quarter. In turn, occupancy moved up 0.3 points quarter‐over‐quarter, to a strong 96.9%. Meanwhile, operators increased rents 1.0% quarter‐over‐quarter and 10.0% year‐over‐
year.
Outlook: New efforts are under way to provide relief to the current structural challenges which brightens an already bright outlook for the Bay Area. Chronic undersupply of housing has given way to a significant increase in residential construction activity. In addition to the 76 multifamily projects (a total of 18,653 units) under way at the end of 1st quarter 2015, the Concord Naval Weapons Station Reuse Project plans to transform more than 5,000 acres of military‐owned property into more than 12,000 suburban homes. Furthermore, Mission Bay’s Redevelopment Agency is in the process of adding 6,000 housing units to the area, with 1,700 of those units designated as affordable. Finally, Lennar is in the process of buying 112 acres in Fremont, where it is eyeing a housing and commercial development as part of the Warm Springs Community Plan. Infrastructure improvement is coming from expansions of the BART. Current projects include a 16‐mile expansion from the eastern side of Santa Clara County to San Jose, a critical extension to the Oakland Airport, and a 10‐mile East Contra Costa extension to alleviate congestion along the IH‐4 corridor. The Bay Area is building for the future and the future looks bright. The addition of new housing isn’t dramatic enough to limit the market’s revenue growth potential, and may actually be a positive –
dampening some of the political noise around rent hikes. New apartment supply will play a more direct role, but likely only in a few submarkets with significant construction, and the impact shouldn’t be severe or long‐lasting.
BAY AREA | 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SAN FRANCISCO
SAN JOSE
OAKLAND
COMBINED AREA
228,585
42,812
18.7%
155,149
70,204
45.2%
199,086
72,024
36.2%
582,820
185,040
31.7%
520 units
3,478 units
1.5%
8,552 units
3,478 units
0 units
1,559 units
927 units
4,177 units
2.5%
11,236 units
4,177 units
326 units
1,990 units
78 units
1,512 units
0.6%
6,185 units
2,336 units
502 units
1,213 units
1,525 units
9,167 units
1.5%
25,973 units
9,167 units
1,687 units
4,761 units
358 units
3,167 units
9,212 units
4,559 units
‐812 units
2,315 units
1,718 units
4,151 units
11,388 units
4,511 units
579 units
2,408 units
833 units
2,342 units
9,340 units
5,589 units
113 units
2,227 units
2,910 units
9,661 units
29,941 units
14,127 units
392 units
6,950 units
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
0.4
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
0.4
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
0.6
96.9%
0.3
0.2
97.6%
96.0%
96.7%
0.4
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
$2,358
$2.826
1.0%
10.0%
12.4%
0.4%
7.6%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
1.3%
10.2%
13.0%
2.3%
8.0%
5,411 units
4,978 units
96.2%
‐0.1
7.8%
7.7%
38,000
3,694 units
3,267 units
96.9%
‐0.2
7.5%
7.3%
31,000
1,374 units
1,139 units
97.4%
‐0.1
8.2%
8.1%
28,000
10,479 units
9,384 units
96.8%
‐0.1
7.9%
7.8%
97,000
SUPPLY Quarterly Supply
Annual Supply
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Supply Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply
DEMAND Quarterly Demand
Annual Demand
Five‐Year Demand
Five‐Year Annual Demand Peak Five‐Year Annual Demand Trough Five‐Year Average Annual Demand
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change Five‐Year Peak
Five‐Year Trough
Five‐Year Average
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
RENT Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply
Annual Demand
Occupancy
Annual Occupancy Change
Annual Rent Change
Annual Revenue Change
Annual Job Change
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
COMBINED AREA
Key Storylines
Bay Area rent growth levels remain in double‐digit territory
U.S. Rent Growth Leaders
Annual Rent
Rank Metro
Growth
1
Denv er/Boulder
10.5%
2
Oakland
10.2%
2
San Francisco
10.2%
4
San Jose
9.3%
5
Atlanta
7.5%
No te: List based o n to p 50 U.S. markets
Annual Supply
12k
Already high, completions are set to increase further
9k
6k
3k
0k
Annual rent growth levels across the Bay Area region generally tapered off for eight quarters following the 12.4% peak in 4th quarter 2011. The slowdown was not surprising, given the unsustainable nature of a double‐digit rent increase and a two‐decade high level of construction activity. But more recently, annual rent growth has again landed in double‐digit territory for the second consecutive quarter. Oakland and San Francisco tied for the #2 spot among the nation’s top 50 markets in 1st quarter 2015, behind Denver/Boulder. That was the first time a Bay Area metro hasn’t landed at #1 in some years. Despite varying degrees of affordability and new construction, effective rents increased 10.2% in Oakland and San Francisco during the past year. Meanwhile, San Jose recorded a 9.3% gain. As a result, the Bay Area as a whole saw annual rent growth accelerate from 8.5% in 1st quarter 2014 to 10.0% just four quarters later. At the submarket level, Downtown San Francisco, the second‐most expensive submarket in the Bay Area, moved into the top spot with a 14.3% gain, while Fremont (13.2%), North San Mateo County (12.1%) and North Sunnyvale (11.9%) were close behind. Moving forward, the Oakland metro remains well‐positioned for future growth given that supply there is a nonfactor, but all three metros will likely remain among the nation’s leaders for rent growth.
1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Unemployment Rate Comparison
Metro
February 2015
YoY
Unemployment Rate
Change
San Francisco
3.7%
-1.4%
San Jose
4.5%
-1.5%
Oakland
5.1%
-1.6%
U.S. Av erage
5.8%
-1.2%
So urce: B ureau o f Labo r Statistics
© 2015 MPF Research
The Bay Area received unprecedented new supply volumes throughout the past year, and additions are expected to accelerate further in the coming year. A for‐
sale market that is out of reach for most has led to explosive returns for the rental market, incentivizing apartment development in the Bay Area. At the end of 1st quarter, work was under way on 76 properties with a total of 18,653 units. Of those, roughly 10,500 units are expected to complete in the next four quarters. These future completions follow about 9,200 units completed during the past year, an unusually high figure for the region. For perspective, the Bay Area region added roughly 4,500 units per year, on average, since 2000. The existing supply pipeline is largely focused in San Francisco (8,913 units) and San Jose (7,073 units). By submarket, construction is most heavily concentrated in SoMa (6,401 units), Central San Jose (2,297 units), North San Jose/Milpitas (2,142 units) and South San Mateo County (1,498 units). Combined these four submarkets account for two‐
thirds of the region’s total supply pipeline. Until this point, there has not been a problem absorbing new product in the Bay Area, given the strength of the economy and need for additional housing. The top supply submarkets will likely take a short‐term hit, but the impact shouldn’t be severe or prolonged.
Unemployment remains low due to strong job growth
Due to consistent broad‐based growth across employment sectors, the pace of job growth remains healthy across the Bay Area. Most recently, the relative pace of job growth was strongest in metro San Jose, which saw payrolls increase 5.4% in the year‐ending February 2015. During the same time, San Francisco and Oakland recorded proportional employment growth of 4.6% and 2.6%, respectively. Those metro‐level additions amounted to more than 126,000 jobs for the region overall in that period. As a result of widespread growth, the unemployment rate remains low across the region. In San Francisco, the unemployment rate stood at 3.7% in February 2015, which was among the metro’s lowest rates since 2008, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rates were slightly higher in San Jose (4.5%) and Oakland (5.1%), but both were under the national average (5.8%). All told, total employment in the Bay Area now exceeds the 1st quarter 2008 level by 271,900 jobs. The unusually brisk pace of job growth currently seen in the region is expected to ease some in the next year (97,000 jobs), but the numbers should remain very healthy.
BAY AREA | 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
COMBINED AREA
Housing Affordability Index
Source: California Association of Realtors
80
Rising home prices keep ownership out of reach for most
60
40
20
0
4Q
07
4Q
08
4Q
09
4Q
10
4Q
11
4Q
12
4Q
13
4Q
14
Silicon Valley VC Investment
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers
Annual Volume (L)
The Bay Area for‐sale housing sector saw median home prices increase 9.9% year‐
over‐year to $740,270 in February 2015, according to the California Association of Realtors. That price gain was driven, in part, by low levels of inventory, as the available supply of homes for sale stood at 3.2 months. As a result, the region’s first‐time buyer housing affordability index registered at 44 in 4th quarter 2014, the most recent time period available. The index by the realtor group measures the percentage of households with incomes greater than or equal to the minimum income needed to meet the median mortgage, tax and insurance payments, assuming a 10% down payment. For perspective, the index hit a low of 20 in 2nd quarter 2007. So while single‐family homes in the region are more affordable today than in the pre‐recession boom years, homeownership remains out of reach for most households, especially in metro San Francisco. There, median prices stood around $1,154,760 as of February 2015. With the cost of homeownership in the Bay Area already so high, the apartment sector will likely continue to see strong demand, especially for more affordable options. Share of U.S. (R)
60%
Venture capital is flooding into Silicon Valley
$30b
50%
$20b
40%
$10b
30%
With an array of start‐up incubators, accelerators and venture capitalists; many outstanding technological and financial innovations have been cultivated in Silicon Valley, leading to heightened interest from investors worldwide. In 2014, total venture capital investment reached its highest level in nearly 14 years at roughly $23.4 billion, according to the recent PricewaterhouseCoopers MoneyTree report. The 2014 tally was an 85% jump over 2013 levels. This sudden jump in investment dollars reflects that the value of companies in Silicon Valley has greatly increased, not that there are a greater number of transactions. But the increase in company values has sparked concern among some well‐known venture capitalists, who have recently questioned the accuracy of some key performance indicators used to evaluate the capital‐generating potential of companies that have yet to establish a profitable business model. The average burn rate, or negative cash flow, among venture capital‐backed companies is at the highest level since 1999. So far, venture capital investment has been very beneficial for the Bay Area, but it also poses a risk to the area if overzealous investment leads to a seizing of investment beyond what many startups are anticipating.
$40b
$0b
99%
1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
20%
Occupancy
Silicon Valley is contributing to the auto industry evolution
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Palo Alto‐based Tesla Motors is one of the most hotly debated stocks in terms of future performance. Bullish investors point to the company as a disruptor with the automobile industry, while bearish investors point out the lofty stock valuations and lack of corporate profits. Either way, this and other Silicon Valley companies could have a profound impact on the nation’s automobile industry. Recent news ranges from industry heavyweights like Ford, BMW, General Motors, Honda, Mercedes‐Benz and Nissan operating research centers in the heart of Silicon Valley, to rumors that Apple and Google are considering building cars in the future. At this point, the automobile industry’s influence in the Bay Area is more speculation than fact, but this much is clear: Fuel efficiency, technological advances and the Internet‐based connectivity of automotive features have the Bay Area emerging as an unlikely hub for automobile research and development. Add this together and the Bay Area has another avenue to diversify its employment base, which adds another layer of stability to apartment occupancy moving forward.
BAY AREA | 6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
COMBINED AREA
Other Highlights
•
•
•
•
Equity Residential broke ground in January 2015 on a three‐
building, 840‐unit project in SoMa, according to the San Francisco Business Journal. This project, which has been referred to as The Showplace Square, will feature One Henry Adams, a 241‐unit complex, and 801 Brennan which will include 449 market rate units and 150 affordable units. Ivanhoe Cambridge and Veritas Investments, Inc. partnered to purchase 11 San Francisco apartment properties, according to Commercial Property Executive. After the $190 million portfolio transaction, the two firms now own 580‐units in San Francisco.
Apple, which employs more than 16,000 people in Cupertino, has leased 260,000 square feet at Main Street Cupertino, a mixed‐use development, according to Bisnow. The office buildings currently under construction are located near Vallco
Shopping Mall.
Large corporate leases remain a theme in the Bay Area. Uber
has leased 173,000 square feet at 555 Market in the heart of San Francisco, according to Bisnow. Uber has been aggressive in signing office leases as it waits for its Mission Bay headquarters to deliver in 2017.
•
In another positive sign for Fremont, SolarCity, a provider of solar energy services, leased 200,000 square feet, according to the San Francisco Business Times. The office space was vacant prior to the lease as a result of the Solyndra bankruptcy. •
Land & Houses USA Inc. purchased Mode de Alta for $73.6 million, according to Bisnow. Mode de Alta is a 111‐unit apartment building located in San Mateo. The seller was Wood Partners.
•
Essex Property Trust acquired a 50% stake in Block 9, a 545‐unit apartment complex located on Folsom Street in San Francisco’s Financial District, according to SNL Financial. The purchase price was $43.6 million. •
Panoramic Interests is close to purchasing a development site located at 333 12th Street, according to Bisnow. •
Sack Properties purchased 720 North, a 116‐unit apartment community located in Sunnyvale, according to Colliers. The purchase price was $20 million. •
Can the pace of employment growth continue? The MPF Research base case scenario calls for the total nonfarm employment level across the three Bay Area metros to slowdown from the unusually strong hot streak of late, but continue at a healthy pace.
Questions to Watch
•
What will be the impact of apartment completions during the next year? Overall, look for modest cooling of rent growth levels. But the impact should be short‐lived and isolated primarily to the submarkets with big supply loads on the way.
•
When will apartment construction levels normalize? The baseline view is that new starts begin moderating later in 2015, but that construction remains elevated by local standards through the next few years.
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
COMBINED AREA
Annual Supply and Demand
Supply
15k
Demand
Annual Rent Change
Forecast
15%
10%
10k
5%
0%
5k
-5%
0k
1Q
10
99%
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Occupancy
-10%
15%
98%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
15
1Q
16
Annual Revenue Change
10%
97%
5%
96%
0%
95%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST: 1Q 2016
SAN FRANCISCO
Annual Supply (units)
5,411
Annual Demand (units)
4,978
Occupancy
96.2%
Annual Occupancy Change
‐0.1
Annual Rent Change
7.8%
Annual Revenue Change
7.7%
Annual Job Change
38,000
© 2015 MPF Research
SAN JOSE
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
7.5%
7.3%
31,000
OAKLAND
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
8.2%
8.1%
28,000
COMBINED AREA
10,479
9,384
96.8%
‐0.1
7.9%
7.8%
97,000
BAY AREA | 8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
SAN FRANCISCO
SAN JOSE
Annual Supply and Demand
Supply
6k
Demand
Annual Supply and Demand
Forecast
3k
2k
0k
1k
-2k
0k
1Q
10
99%
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Occupancy
1Q
10
99%
98%
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
15
1Q
16
Occupancy
98%
97%
97%
96%
96%
95%
94%
95%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
10
Annual Rent Change
1Q
11
1Q
12
Annual Rent Change
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Annual Revenue Change
-10%
20%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Annual Revenue Change
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
Forecast
4k
2k
20%
Demand
5k
4k
-5%
Supply
6k
-5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 9
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2015
OAKLAND
Annual Supply and Demand
Supply
6k
Demand
Forecast
5k
4k
3k
2k
1k
0k
1Q
10
99%
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
1Q
15
1Q
16
Occupancy
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
Annual Rent Change
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
15%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Annual Revenue Change
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 10
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
1Q 2015
SAN FRANCISCO
Supply
SUPPLY and DEMAND
San Francisco received three new properties with a total of 520 units during 2015’s 1st quarter. That quarterly volume took annual supply to 3,478 units, which grew the metro’s existing apartment base 1.5%. Construction volumes in San Francisco have trended upward since reaching nearly a two‐decade low of 160 units in 2010. At the end of 1st quarter, there were 8,913 units in process, remaining among the largest ongoing development tallies seen here over the past couple of decades. Of what’s under way, a total of 5,411 units are slated to deliver over the next four quarters and will grow the existing base 2.4%. Looking at demand trends, San Francisco recorded demand for 358 units in 1st quarter which pushed annual absorption tally to 3,167 units. That annual performance was above the average demand level seen here over the past three years (about 1,865 units).
Quarterly
4k
Annual
3k
2k
1k
0k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
1Q
15
OCCUPANCY
Occupancy in San Francisco decreased 0.1 point in 1st quarter and was down 0.1 point annually to land at a rate of 96.3%. That overall rate came in slightly below the average levels seen here in the 2006‐2007 time frame (97.1%). On the regional stage, occupancy in San Francisco placed last among the three Bay Area metros in 1st quarter. However, the metro’s occupancy rate was still above the norms for the West region (96.2%) and the core 100 markets nationally (95.4%), according to preliminary results from MPF Research’s 1st quarter survey. Looking at results in San Francisco, occupancy was clustered around 96% to 97% in most product age niches, with the 1970s units recording the tightest rate of 97.1%. The exception was seen in the 2000+ units at 95.3%. RENT
At $2,831 per month, or $3.478 per square foot, rental rates in San Francisco remained some of the nation’s most expensive in 2015’s 1st quarter. And despite already high prices, operators in the metro continued to push rents. Effective prices increased 0.8% in 1st quarter and were up 10.2% annually. That annual result landed San Francisco among the nation’s top five major metros for rent change. San Francisco’s annual rent hike registered well above the preliminary averages for both the nation overall (4.6%) and the West region (6.9%). Looking at rent growth by product age sector in San Francisco, the largest hike was seen in units built prior to 1970 (13.9%), followed by the 1990s niche (11.8%). The remaining segments posted increases around 6% to 10%. PERMITS
Though easing over the past year, multifamily permitting activity in San Francisco remains elevated by historical standards. A total of 469 multifamily permits were approved for construction in the metro during the January‐February 2015 time frame. That two‐month tally took authorizations for the year‐ending February 2015 to 4,141 units (with 3,536 of those units authorized in the 11‐month period ending in February). That annual figure was 17.1% below the number of permits approved during the previous 12‐month period. Nationally, San Francisco ranked 26th for annual authorizations. Over the past 10 years, annual approvals have averaged roughly 2,775 units, topping the 5,000‐unit mark only three times: 2nd quarter 2013 (5,042 units), 4th quarter 2013 (5,276 units) and 1st quarter 2014 (5,536 units). EMPLOYMENT
According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers in San Francisco added 45,800 jobs, on net, to payrolls in the year‐ending February 2015. That absolute gain ranked the metro at #16 nationally for absolute job change and translated to a 4.6% expansion of the job base. The metro’s proportionate job growth ranked #4 nationally. Heavily influencing job growth during the past year was the Professional/Business Services sector, which posted a gain of 22,100 jobs. Thanks to overall growth of late, San Francisco’s total job count as of February 2015 stood 131,200 positions (or 14.6%) above the level seen in 1st quarter 2008. © 2015 MPF Research
Demand
Quarterly
6k
Annual
4k
2k
0k
-2k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Occupancy Comparison
Metro
99%
West
U.S.
97%
95%
93%
91%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change Comparison
Metro
20%
West
U.S.
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 11
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
1Q 2015
SAN JOSE
Supply
SUPPLY and DEMAND
San Jose received six properties with a total of 927 units in 2015’s 1st quarter. Those additions took annual deliveries to a region‐leading 4,177 units. However, 324 units were removed from inventory, taking the net supply volume to 3,853 units. That net tally grew the metro’s existing apartment base 2.5%. Since 2011, annual supply levels have averaged roughly 2,260 units – slightly lower than average levels seen here during the late 1990s and early 2000s tech boom (2,500 units) – but levels are rising. At the end of 1st quarter, there were 24 properties with a total of 7,073 units under way in metro San Jose, with 3,694 of those set to complete over the next four quarters. Looking at demand, San Jose recorded absorption of 1,718 apartments in 1st quarter. In the past year, the metro absorbed 4,151 units. That was the 22nd consecutive quarter of year‐over‐year resident gains in the metro, the longest stretch of positive annual demand ever recorded here. RENT
Rental rates for apartments in San Jose averaged $2,325 per month or $2.670 per square foot, as of 1st quarter. And while these weren’t the highest prices among Bay Area’s three metros, they were some of the priciest rents across the nation. In terms of pricing trends in San Jose, rent growth momentum picked up recently. In the year‐ending 1st quarter 2015, prices increased 9.3%, which included a 1.0% increase specifically in 1st quarter. That annual result was among the top five increases seen in the nation’s top 50 metros, easily topping the preliminary norms for the West region (6.9%) and U.S. overall (4.6%). Each of San Jose’s product age niches posted annual rent hikes of roughly 7% to 10%, with the with the biggest bumps recorded in the 1980s (10.2%) and 1970s (10.1%) apartments. PERMITS
Permitting activity in San Jose remains elevated, as it has for the past two or three years, and reached a new historical high recently. A total of 948 multifamily units were approved for construction in the metro during 2015’s January‐February time frame. The tally in the year‐ending February 2015 registered at 8,147 units (including the 7,779 units authorized in the 11‐month period ending in February). That annual volume (#9 nationwide) was 41.3% higher than the number approved during the previous 12‐month period. Over the past three quarters, multifamily permitting activity has registered above 7,000 units. The previous crest of nearly 6,000 units was seen in 1986. EMPLOYMENT
According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the greater San Jose area gained 53,400 jobs, on net, during the year‐ending February 2015, with these additions translating to a 5.4% expansion of the metro’s job base. Across the nation, San Jose ranked #12 for absolute job change and #1 for proportional change. During the past year, all major job sectors logged at least a little growth. Hiring was most robust in the Professional/Business Services and Information segments. Recent overall hiring activity pushed San Jose’s total job count 113,700 positions (or 12.3%) above the level seen in 1st quarter 2008. Over the past couple of decades, the metro’s strongest job growth performance occurred during 2000, when gains topped the 72,000‐job mark.
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
4k
3k
2k
1k
0k
1Q
10
OCCUPANCY
Occupancy in San Jose stood at 97.1% in 2015’s 1st quarter, up 0.6 points quarter‐
over‐quarter and up 0.3 points year‐over‐year. San Jose’s 1st quarter rate was in‐
line with the metro’s five‐year average of 97.1%. Furthermore, San Jose’s recent occupancy rate was better than the norms seen across both the West region (96.2%) and the nation as a whole (95.4%), according to preliminary findings from MPF Research’s 1st quarter survey. By product age sector in San Jose, occupancy was healthy across the board, ranging from 96.8% in the 2000+ product to 97.2% in both the 1970s and 1980s units. Quarterly
5k
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
Quarterly
6k
Annual
4k
2k
0k
-2k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Occupancy Comparison
Metro
99%
West
U.S.
97%
95%
93%
91%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change Comparison
Metro
20%
West
U.S.
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 12
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
1Q 2015
OAKLAND
Supply
SUPPLY and DEMAND
Oakland received one new property with 78 units during 2015’s 1st quarter, which took annual deliveries to 1,512 units. However, 368 units were taken offline, leading to net inventory expansion of 1,144 units. That net annual increase grew Oakland’s existing apartment base 0.6%. At the end of 1st quarter, 20 properties with a total of 2,667 units were under construction across Oakland, with 1,374 of those units set to complete over the next year. That annual volume would grow the existing base 0.7%. Turning to absorption trends, Oakland recorded net demand for 833 units in 2015’s 1st quarter. Annually, Oakland absorbed 2,342 units, which was slightly ahead of the metro’s average annual demand levels of roughly 2,225 units over the past five years.
RENT
At $1,841 per month, or $2.218 per square foot, Oakland posted the Bay Area’s least expensive rental rates in 1st quarter. In terms of recent change, Oakland saw same‐store rents jump 1.4% in 1st quarter. That quarterly hike pushed effective prices up 10.2% annually. Not only was that the second‐largest increase seen across the nation’s 50 largest markets, it was one of the biggest annual rent hikes Oakland has seen in more than a decade. Oakland’s annual rent change in 2015’s 1st quarter outperformed the preliminary averages for both the nation (4.6%) and West region (6.9%). Each of Oakland’s product age segments logged annual rent growth at or above 9%, with the 1980s units (11.5%) and pre‐1970 stock (11.4%) leading the way. PERMITS
Multifamily permit authorizations in Oakland really picked up at the beginning of 2013, and have picked up again after slowing from late 2013 through early 2014. During 2015’s January‐February time frame, a total of 138 units were approved for construction, with this tally taking the metro’s approval volume in the year‐ending February to 2,332 units (of which 2,299 units were green‐lighted in the 11‐month period ending in February 2015). This annual volume was 72.2% above the year‐
earlier figure and ranked Oakland #35 nationally. The most aggressive building pace seen here over the past decade came in 2006’s second half, when annual permit volumes averaged about 5,300 units. Since 2008, approvals have averaged roughly 1,730 units annually.
EMPLOYMENT
Preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that Oakland added 26,900 positions to its employment base during the year‐ending February 2015, ranking the metro at #33 for absolute job change nationally. That absolute gain translated to a 2.6% expansion of the metro’s workforce. Moderate gains were common across most industries, with the biggest increases posted in the Professional/Business Services segment. On the other hand, job cuts persisted in the Financial Activities sector. With the recent overall growth, Oakland has recouped all of the jobs lost to the recession. The metro’s total job count as of February 2015 stood 21,400 positions (or 2.0%) above the level seen in 1st quarter 2008. The metro’s strongest annual job growth performance over the past couple of decades occurred in 2000, when gains topped the 41,000‐job mark. © 2015 MPF Research
Annual
2.5k
2.0k
1.5k
1.0k
0.5k
0.0k
1Q
10
OCCUPANCY
With a 0.4‐point increase in 2015’s 1st quarter, occupancy in the Oakland metro stood at 97.5%, up 0.6 points year‐over‐year. That recent occupancy rate – the best seen among the three Bay Area metros – was Oakland’s eighth consecutive quarterly reading of roughly 97% or more. For some perspective, occupancy here fell as low as 93.5% during the recession after averaging 96.6% from 2005 to 2007. During the same time, occupancy in both San Francisco and San Jose metros averaged 97.0% to 97.5%, respectively. Oakland’s 1st quarter 2015 occupancy rate easily surpassed the preliminary averages for the West region (96.2%) and the U.S. overall (95.4%). Looking at occupancy by product age niche in Oakland, each segment posted rates between about 97% and 98%, with the pre‐1970 stock leading the way at 98.2%. The weakest reading, though still strong, was recorded in the 2000+ group at 96.6%. Quarterly
3.0k
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
Quarterly
6k
Annual
4k
2k
0k
-2k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Occupancy Comparison
Metro
99%
West
U.S.
97%
95%
93%
91%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change Comparison
Metro
15%
West
U.S.
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 13
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
SAN FRANCISCO
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
St. Anthony
1
121 Golden Gate Av e, San Francisco, CA 94102
Avalon Hayes Valley
1
325 Octav ia St, San Francisco, CA 94102
100 Van Ness
1
100 Van Ness Av e, San Francisco, CA 94102
Broadway Sansome
1
255 Broadway, San Francisco, CA 94111
Channel Mission Bay
2
185 Channel St, San Francisco, CA 94158
Candlestick Heights II *
2
859 Jamestown Av e, San Francisco, CA 94124
Wilson (The)
2
973 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94103
1180 4th Street
2
1180 4th St, San Francisco, CA 94158
AVA at 55 Ninth
2
55 9th St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Mosso I
2
900 Folsom St, San Francisco, CA 94107
Gantry (The)
2
2121 3rd St, San Francisco, CA 94107
Mosso II
2
400 Clementina St, San Francisco, CA 94103
2175 Market
3
2175 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94114
1100 Ocean Avenue
3
1100 Ocean Av e, San Francisco, CA 94112
Pinedera
4
120 S El Camino Real, Millbrae, CA 94030
Mode by Alta
5
2089 Pacific Blv d, San Mateo, CA 94403
Elkhorn Court
5
1950 Elkhorn Ct, San Mateo, CA 94403
201 Marshall
6
201 Marshall St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Lane on the Boulevard (The)
6
2580 El Camino Real, Redwood City, CA 94061
Radius
6
620 Veterans Blv d, Redwood City, CA 94063
Developer
Mercy Housing/St. Anthony
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Senior
90
10
09/12 09/14
Av alonBay Communities Inc
Conv entional
182
5
09/13 12/14
Emerald Fund
Conv entional
400
29
02/13 01/15
Affordable
75
7
04/13 01/15
UDR Inc
Conv entional
315
7
10/11 04/14
L+M Dev elopment Partners Inc
Affordable
111
3
01/13 05/14
Raintree Partners
Conv entional
67
7
05/13 05/14
Mercy Housing
Affordable
99
6
08/12 06/14
Av alonBay Communities Inc
Conv entional
273
16
09/12 07/14
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
463
9
08/12 07/14
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
105
6
12/12 08/14
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
282
9
06/13 12/14
Forest City Enterprises
Conv entional
88
6
07/13 10/14
Affordable
45
5
09/13 01/15
Pinewav e Dev elopment Group Inc
Conv entional
54
4
11/12 09/14
Wood Partners
Conv entional
111
3
04/13 08/14
Coastal Rim Properties Inc
Conv entional
197
4
07/12 09/14
Raintree Partners
Conv entional
116
7
11/12 04/14
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
141
4
11/12 07/14
BRE Properties Inc
Conv entional
264
5
11/12 12/14
Foundation
Chinatown Community
Dev elopment Center
Mercy Housing/Bernal Heights
Neighborhood Center
Total Units: 3,478
Sub#
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
Properties Under Construction
101 Polk Street
101 Polk St, San Francisco, CA 94102
Alta Laguna
55 Laguna St, San Francisco, CA 94102
55 Laguna
Laguna St & Hermann St, San Francisco, CA 94102
Trinity Place III
1188 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Azure at Mission Bay
690 Long Bridge St, San Francisco, CA 94158
Panoramic (The)
1321 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103
1400 Mission
1400 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Emerald Fund
Conv entional
162
13
04/14 11/15
Wood Partners
Conv entional
330
5
10/13 12/15
Mercy Housing/Openhouse
Senior
110
3
01/15 07/16
Trinity Management Serv ices
Conv entional
545
22
03/13 06/15
Equity Residential
Conv entional
273
16
03/13 07/15
Panoramic Interests
Student
160
11
12/13 07/15
Affordable
193
15
08/13 08/15
Maracor/Tenderloin Neighborhood
Dev elopment Corp
* Originally planned or started as a for-sale condominium property but switched to rental during construction.
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 14
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
SAN FRANCISCO
Sub#
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
Properties Under Construction
MB360 I
701 China Basin, San Francisco, CA 94158
299 Fremont
299 Fremont St, San Francisco, CA 94105
Block N4P3 *
360 Berry St, San Francisco, CA 94158
Hunters View II
112 Middle Point Rd, San Francisco, CA 94124
Pacific Pointe at the Shipyard
350 Friedell St, San Francisco, CA 94124
Dr George W Davis Senior
5800 3rd St, San Francisco, CA 94124
Nema
1401 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94103
399 Fremont
399 Fremont St, San Francisco, CA 94105
480 Potrero Avenue
480 Potrero Av e, San Francisco, CA 94110
350 8th
350 8th St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Potrero
1000 16th St, San Francisco, CA 94107
Transbay Block 9
Folsom St & Essex St, San Francisco, CA 94105
MB360 II
701 China Basin St, San Francisco, CA 94158
1201 Tennessee Street
1201 Tennessee St, San Francisco, CA 94107
340 Fremont
340 Fremont St, San Francisco, CA 94105
41 Tehama
41 Tehama St, San Francisco, CA 94105
One Henry Adams
1 Henry Adams St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Triton Pointe
5541 Foster City Blv d, Foster City, CA 94404
Foster Square Senior
Foster City Blv d & Civ ic Center Dr, Foster City, CA 94404
Elan Redwood City
113 Monroe St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Fuller Street (The)
439 Fuller St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Indigo
525 Middlefield Rd, Redwood City, CA 94063
Anton Menlo
3639 Hav en Av e, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Redwood City
601 Main St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Tam Ridge Residences
199 Tamal Vista Blv d, Corte Madera, CA 94925
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
188
5
05/14 08/15
Golub & Company LLC
Conv entional
479
32
11/13 10/15
Mission Bay Dev elopment Group
Conv entional
129
5
09/14 01/16
The John Stewart Company
Affordable
107
5
09/14 02/16
AMCAL Multi-Housing Inc
Affordable
60
5
11/14 02/16
McCormack Baron Salazar
Senior
121
5
03/14 03/16
Crescent Heights
Conv entional
754
37
03/12 03/16
UDR Inc/MetLife
Conv entional
452
42
01/14 04/16
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
77
6
08/14 04/16
Conv entional
410
6
03/14 05/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
453
6
04/14 05/16
Av ant Housing LLC/BRIDGE Housing
Conv entional
563
41
06/14 06/16
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
172
9
05/13 07/16
AGI Av ant
Conv entional
258
6
02/15 09/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
348
40
04/14 09/16
Hines
Conv entional
418
35
01/15 10/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
241
6
01/15 12/16
Conv entional
166
6
08/14 06/15
MidPen Housing Corp
Senior
66
4
12/14 02/16
Greystar
Conv entional
305
6
07/13 09/15
Acclaim Companies
Conv entional
133
5
07/14 12/15
The Pauls Corp
Conv entional
470
10
04/14 01/16
St Anton Partners
Conv entional
394
4
09/14 03/16
Conv entional
196
8
03/14 03/16
Conv entional
180
4
09/12 05/15
Associated Estates/American
International Group Inc
Thompson Dorfman Partners
LLC/CityView
Lennar Corp/The Resmark
Companies
MacFarlane Partners
Total Units: 8,913
* Originally planned or started as a for-sale condominium property but switched to rental during construction.
Note: Submarket map is available in the Methodology Section. © 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 15
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
SAN JOSE
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Carmel The Village
1
555 San Antonio Rd, Mountain View, CA 94040
Colonnade (The)
1
4750 El Camino Real, Los Altos, CA 94022
Madrone Addition
1
111 N Rengstorff Av e, Mountain View, CA 94043
Domus on the Boulevard
1
2650 W El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
819 North Rengstorff
1
819 N Rengstorff Av e, Mountain View, CA 94043
Anton 1101
2
1101 N Fair Oaks Av e, Sunnyv ale, CA 94089
Biltmore Expansion
3
10159 S Blaney Av e, Cupertino, CA 95014
Nineteen800
3
19800 Vallco Pkwy, Cupertino, CA 95014
Tuscany
4
3229 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA 95051
Misora
5
388 Santana Row, San Jose, CA 95128
Revere
5
1725 S Bascom Av e, Campbell, CA 95008
Vivere II
6
135 Riv iera Dr, Los Gatos, CA 95032
Anton La Moraga
6
5822 Charlotte Dr, San Jose, CA 95123
Avalon Morrison Park
7
899 Morrison Park Dr, San Jose, CA 95126
Buena Vista Midtown
7
1535 W San Carlos St, San Jose, CA 95126
Meridian at Midtown
7
1432 W San Carlos St, San Jose, CA 95126
Ford Road Plaza
8
215 Ford Rd, San Jose, CA 95138
Enso *
9
175 Baypointe Pkwy, San Jose, CA 95134
Aire
9
3401 Iron Point Dr, San Jose, CA 95134
Verdant (The) *
9
3700 Casa Verde Way, San Jose, CA 95134
RiverView I
9
3469 N 1st St, San Jose, CA 95134
ILARA
9
1201 S Main St, Milpitas, CA 95035
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Carmel Partners
Conv entional
330
5
11/11 04/14
SARES-REGIS Group
Conv entional
167
4
04/13 08/14
Prometheus
Conv entional
134
2
02/13 12/14
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
193
4
04/13 02/15
Eden Housing Inc/ROEM Corp
Affordable
51
3
01/14 03/15
St Anton Partners
Conv entional
97
4
07/13 02/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
80
3
09/13 09/14
KCR Dev elopment Inc
Conv entional
204
6
05/13 11/14
Citation Homes
Conv entional
133
4
06/13 11/14
Federal Realty Inv estment Trust
Conv entional
212
5
03/12 04/14
Bay West Dev elopment
Conv entional
168
5
04/13 02/15
The Sobrato Organization
Conv entional
50
3
08/13 11/14
St Anton Partners
Conv entional
275
2
10/12 12/14
Av alonBay Communities Inc
Conv entional
250
4
09/12 06/14
The Core Companies
Senior
95
4
05/13 09/14
Republic Family of Companies
Conv entional
218
5
10/12 03/15
Eden Housing Inc
Affordable
75
3
03/13 07/14
Fairfield Residential
Conv entional
183
4
02/12 05/14
Bay West Dev elopment
Conv entional
293
5
08/12 07/14
Fairfield Residential
Conv entional
498
5
09/11 07/14
Thompson Dorfman Partners LLC
Conv entional
271
4
09/11 10/14
Shea Properties
Conv entional
200
4
03/13 01/15
Total Units: 4,177
Sub#
1
1
1
1
2
Properties Under Construction
Manzanita II
1616 W El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
Montrose West
1720 W El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
Mountain View
861 E El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
100 Moffett
100 Moffett Blv d, Mountain View, CA 94043
Ironworks South
388 E Ev elyn Av e, Sunnyv ale, CA 94086
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Prometheus
Conv entional
66
4
05/14 05/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
162
4
01/14 07/15
Lennar Corp
Conv entional
150
4
11/13 10/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
186
4
07/14 01/16
Prometheus
Conv entional
67
5
05/14 05/15
* Originally planned or started as a for-sale condominium property but switched to rental during construction.
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 16
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
SAN JOSE
Sub#
2
2
2
4
4
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
9
9
9
9
Properties Under Construction
Stewart Village
959 Stewart Dr, Sunnyv ale, CA 94085
Ironworks
457 E Ev elyn Av e, Sunnyv ale, CA 94086
East Weddell
610 E Weddell Dr, Sunnyv ale, CA 94089
Hearth I
2870 Kaiser Dr, Santa Clara, CA 95051
Villas on the Boulevard
2611 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA 95051
ASCENT
5805 Charlotte Dr, San Jose, CA 95123
Marquis
817 N 10th St, San Jose, CA 95112
One South Market
1 S Market St, San Jose, CA 95113
Centerra
90 Notre Dame Av e, San Jose, CA 95113
Donner Lofts
156 E Saint John St, San Jose, CA 95112
27 North 6th Street
27 N 6th St, San Jose, CA 95112
Pierce (The)
60 Pierce Av e, San Jose, CA 95110
Century Center Towers
1733 N 1st St, San Jose, CA 95112
Silvery Towers
190 W Saint James St, San Jose, CA 95110
LINQ at Berryessa Station
670 N King Rd, San Jose, CA 95133
Epic
600 Epic Way, San Jose, CA 95134
River Oaks East
385 Riv er Oaks Pkwy, San Jose, CA 95134
Citation II Lago Vista
765 Montague Expy, Milpitas, CA 95035
Tasman
99 Vista Montana, San Jose, CA 95134
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
The Irv ine Company LLC
Conv entional
259
3
04/13 09/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
184
5
05/14 04/16
SARES-REGIS Group
Conv entional
205
4
01/15 05/16
Prometheus
Conv entional
289
6
08/13 06/15
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
186
4
10/14 09/16
Shea Properties/Iv anhoé Cambridge
Conv entional
650
5
09/13 05/16
Conv entional
166
4
10/13 06/15
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
312
23
06/13 07/15
Simeon Residential Properties
Conv entional
347
21
08/13 08/15
MidPen Housing Corp
Affordable
102
7
11/14 12/15
Symphony Dev elopment
Student
119
7
08/14 07/16
SARES-REGIS Group
Conv entional
232
7
05/14 08/16
Conv entional
376
12
08/14 11/16
Conv entional
643
20
03/15 09/17
Conv entional
230
5
09/14 05/16
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
769
5
11/11 04/15
The Irv ine Company LLC
Conv entional
438
4
03/13 05/15
SCS Dev elopment Company
Conv entional
381
5
03/15 03/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
554
6
10/13 06/16
The Core Companies/Republic
Family of Companies
Essex Property Trust Inc/Barry
Swenson Builder
Full Power Properties LLC
The Core Companies/Republic
Family of Companies
Total Units: 7,073
Note: Submarket map is available in the Methodology Section. © 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 17
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
OAKLAND
Sub#
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
7
7
7
7
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Hayward Senior II
22605 Grand St, Hayward, CA 94541
Fidelity
2321 Shattuck Av e, Berkeley, CA 94704
Lion Creek Crossings V
6710 Leona Creek Dr, Oakland, CA 94621
Oakland 34
10920 MacArthur Blv d, Oakland, CA 94605
Cathedral Gardens
638 21st St, Oakland, CA 94612
Lampwork Lofts
1614 Campbell St, Oakland, CA 94607
Lakeside Senior
1511 2nd Av e, Oakland, CA 94606
EMME
6350 Christie Av e, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Stranda House
2489 Martin Luther King Jr Way, Berkeley, CA 94704
Higby (The)
3015 San Pablo Av e, Berkeley, CA 94702
Parc on Powell
1333 Powell St, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Durant (The)
2024 Durant Av e, Berkeley, CA 94704
Casara Canyon
720 Shell Av e, Martinez, CA 94553
Merrill Gardens at Lafayette
1010 2nd St, Lafayette, CA 94549
Brio
161 N Civ ic Dr, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Orinda
2 Irwin Way, Orinda, CA 94563
Arbodela
1550 3rd Av e, Walnut Creek, CA 94597
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Eden Housing Inc
Senior
22
3
12/13 12/14
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
16
5
02/13 05/14
EBALDC
Senior
128
4
06/13 07/14
Meta Housing Corp
Senior
33
4
11/12 07/14
EAH Inc
Affordable
100
4
07/12 08/14
Madison Park Financial Corp
Conv entional
92
4
04/13 08/14
SAHA
Senior
92
5
04/13 10/14
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
190
5
08/12 11/14
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
21
4
11/13 11/14
Gerding Edlen
Conv entional
98
5
12/13 12/14
Equity Residential
Conv entional
168
4
12/12 12/14
The Austin Group LLC
Conv entional
78
6
01/14 03/15
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
42
3
12/13 12/14
SRM Dev elopment LLC
Senior
17
3
11/12 05/14
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
300
4
12/12 09/14
Eden Housing Inc
Senior
67
4
01/13 09/14
SAHA
Affordable
48
3
02/14 12/14
Total Units: 1,512
Sub#
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Properties Under Construction
Cornerstone I (The)
1503 Martinez St, San Leandro, CA 94577
South Hayward
28901 Mission Blv d, Hayward, CA 94544
AveVista
460 Grand Av e, Oakland, CA 94610
Mural
40th St & Telegraph Av e, Oakland, CA 94609
Footprint Valdez
2425 Valdez St, Oakland, CA 94612
Sequoia
2441 Haste St, Berkeley, CA 94704
3900 Adeline
3900 Adeline St, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Aquatic (The)
800 Univ ersity Av e, Berkeley, CA 94710
the INTERSECTION
3800 San Pablo Av e, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Overture (The)
1812 Univ ersity Av e, Berkeley, CA 94703
© 2015 MPF Research
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
BRIDGE Housing
Affordable
115
5
12/14 05/16
Eden Housing Inc/Wittek & Montana
Conv entional
357
5
02/15 11/16
BRIDGE Housing
Affordable
68
6
02/14 04/15
BRIDGE Housing
Affordable
90
5
10/13 04/15
Footprint Inv estments
Conv entional
71
6
06/14 06/15
ROEM Corp
Conv entional
42
4
05/14 06/15
Madison Park Financial Corp
Conv entional
101
3
08/14 11/15
R&S Fifth Street LLC
Conv entional
58
5
11/14 11/15
Holliday Dev elopment
Conv entional
105
5
10/14 11/15
Rhodes Planning Group
Conv entional
44
4
12/14 12/15
BAY AREA | 18
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
OAKLAND
Sub#
3
3
4
7
7
7
7
9
9
9
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Hive (The)
2335 Broadway, Oakland, CA 94612
2107 Dwight Way
2107 Dwight Way, Berkeley, CA 94704
Ohlone Gardens
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Signature Dev elopment Group
Conv entional
104
3
09/14 01/16
Menlo Management Company
Student
99
6
07/14 03/16
Affordable
57
4
04/14 05/15
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
126
4
10/13 06/15
Hall Equities Group
Conv entional
100
6
10/13 09/15
Laconia Dev elopment LLC
Conv entional
141
6
09/14 12/15
O’Brien Land Company LLC
Conv entional
315
3
01/15 07/16
St Anton Partners
Affordable
168
4
09/13 08/15
BRE Properties Inc
Conv entional
255
4
01/15 06/16
BRE Properties Inc
Conv entional
251
4
01/15 09/16
Resources for Community
Dev elopment
6495 Portola Dr, El Cerrito, CA 94530
Ascent Walnut Creek
1960 N Main St, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Arroyo (The)
1250 Arroyo Way, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
1500 California
1500 N California Blv d, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Terraces of Lafayette
1191 Pleasant Hill Rd, Lafayette, CA 94549
Anton Hacienda
5729 W Las Positas Blv d, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Owens
4789 Willow Rd, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Hacienda
4410 Hacienda Dr, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Total Units: 2,667
Note: Submarket map is available in the Methodology Section. DEVELOPMENT LEADERS
Units Completed in the
Units Under
Last Four Quarters
935
Construction
1,817
Total Units
Equity Residential
168
1,869
2,037
Prometheus
214
954
1,168
Developer
Essex Property Trust Inc
2,752
St Anton Partners
372
562
934
Shea Properties
200
650
850
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 19
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
COMBINED AREA
SNAPSHOT: COMBINED AREA
OCCUPANCY
Niche
RENT
Change
Current
Change
Monthly
Rate
Quarterly
Annual
Rent
Quarterly
Annual
96.4%
97.1%
97.3%
97.4%
97.1%
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.2
‐0.1
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.2
$2,558
$2,391
$2,175
$1,959
$2,310
0.0%
2.9%
1.5%
0.7%
1.2%
8.4%
10.0%
9.8%
9.8%
11.7%
97.3%
96.8%
95.6%
0.4
1.0
‐0.7
0.4
0.8
‐1.0
$2,063
$2,537
$3,331
1.4%
0.4%
0.3%
10.3%
8.4%
9.4%
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
96.4%
97.1%
97.1%
97.1%
0.2
0.4
0.5
‐0.1
‐0.3
0.4
0.4
‐0.1
$1,975
$2,032
$2,451
$2,657
0.1%
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
7.5%
METRO AVERAGE
96.9%
0.3
0.2
$2,358
1.0%
10.0%
YEAR BUILT
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre‐1970
BUILDING HEIGHT
Low‐Rise
Mid‐Rise
High‐Rise
UNIT TYPE
Occupancy by Year Built
2000+
1970s
99%
1990s
Pre-1970
Annual Rent Change by Year Built
1980s
20%
Pre-1970
1980s
10%
97%
5%
96%
0%
95%
-5%
94%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Occupancy by Building Height
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change by Building
Height
High-Rise
12%
98%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
10%
97%
8%
96%
6%
95%
94%
1990s
1970s
15%
98%
99%
2000+
4%
1Q 14
© 2015 MPF Research
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
BAY AREA | 20
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA: COMBINED AREA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.2%
96.3%
96.2%
96.4%
97.0%
95.9%
96.4%
96.3%
96.6%
96.4%
96.5%
96.0%
95.1%
2Q 13
97.0%
97.1%
96.9%
97.2%
97.7%
97.1%
96.8%
97.0%
97.5%
96.9%
97.2%
96.7%
96.5%
3Q 13
97.0%
97.3%
97.0%
97.1%
97.4%
97.4%
96.4%
96.9%
97.5%
96.9%
97.2%
97.0%
96.7%
4Q 13
96.8%
96.6%
96.8%
96.8%
97.3%
96.8%
96.0%
97.0%
97.0%
96.8%
96.9%
96.8%
96.4%
1Q 14
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
97.2%
96.2%
96.6%
96.6%
97.1%
96.9%
96.9%
96.0%
96.6%
2Q 14
97.2%
97.1%
97.3%
97.4%
97.6%
96.7%
97.4%
97.3%
97.9%
97.2%
97.6%
96.8%
96.2%
3Q 14
97.6%
97.6%
97.6%
97.7%
97.6%
97.8%
97.5%
97.5%
97.8%
97.4%
97.6%
97.9%
97.3%
4Q 14
96.6%
96.2%
96.7%
96.6%
97.2%
95.5%
96.6%
96.9%
97.2%
97.2%
96.9%
95.8%
96.3%
1Q 15
96.9%
96.4%
97.1%
97.1%
97.1%
96.4%
97.1%
97.3%
97.4%
97.1%
97.3%
96.8%
95.6%
1Q 13
$1,955
$1,578
$1,674
$2,035
$2,307
$2,153
$2,000 $1,786 $1,642
$1,935
$1,714
$2,116
$2,781
2Q 13
$2,048
$1,585
$1,737
$2,131
$2,411
$2,223
$2,077 $1,852 $1,704
$2,054
$1,781
$2,191
$2,949
3Q 13
$2,084
$1,602
$1,783
$2,185
$2,494
$2,258
$2,112 $1,927 $1,775
$2,067
$1,839
$2,247
$2,961
4Q 13
$2,082
$1,643
$1,783
$2,186
$2,457
$2,209
$2,092 $1,952 $1,766
$2,100
$1,839
$2,237
$2,936
1Q 14
$2,129
$1,699
$1,823
$2,239
$2,468
$2,298
$2,146 $1,984 $1,801
$2,111
$1,876
$2,275
$3,000
2Q 14
$2,198
$1,725
$1,891
$2,320
$2,527
$2,392
$2,232 $2,049 $1,870
$2,143
$1,942
$2,391
$3,034
3Q 14
$2,269
$1,804
$1,954
$2,392
$2,595
$2,471
$2,313 $2,097 $1,938
$2,209
$2,001
$2,466
$3,136
4Q 14
$2,328
$1,914
$2,007
$2,425
$2,656
$2,570
$2,305 $2,137 $1,946
$2,272
$2,027
$2,534
$3,280
1Q 15
$2,358
$1,975
$2,032
$2,451
$2,657
$2,558
$2,391 $2,175 $1,959
$2,310
$2,063
$2,537
$3,331
1Q 13
$2.353
$3.343
$2.450
$2.082
$1.858
$2.319
$2.284 $2.204 $2.065
$2.367
$2.062
$2.454
$3.279
2Q 13
$2.465
$3.378
$2.543
$2.184
$1.933
$2.390
$2.393 $2.279 $2.141
$2.517
$2.139
$2.572
$3.442
3Q 13
$2.518
$3.429
$2.612
$2.239
$2.005
$2.447
$2.429 $2.372 $2.231
$2.544
$2.217
$2.635
$3.455
4Q 13
$2.516
$3.464
$2.613
$2.240
$1.980
$2.379
$2.404 $2.421 $2.225
$2.578
$2.212
$2.619
$3.465
1Q 14
$2.559
$3.547
$2.669
$2.288
$1.988
$2.489
$2.464 $2.444 $2.265
$2.572
$2.251
$2.657
$3.520
2Q 14
$2.650
$3.642
$2.768
$2.374
$2.037
$2.602
$2.569 $2.524 $2.355
$2.629
$2.336
$2.781
$3.594
3Q 14
$2.736
$3.821
$2.857
$2.447
$2.087
$2.693
$2.661 $2.586 $2.439
$2.706
$2.410
$2.872
$3.683
4Q 14
$2.801
$3.991
$2.933
$2.476
$2.129
$2.800
$2.626 $2.634 $2.449
$2.791
$2.440
$2.918
$3.853
1Q 15
$2.826
$4.057
$2.962
$2.505
$2.130
$2.779
$2.716 $2.670 $2.458
$2.825
$2.472
$2.920
$3.902
1Q 13
6.1%
5.2%
6.2%
5.9%
5.8%
4.5%
6.0%
5.8%
6.5%
7.7%
6.7%
4.0%
4.4%
2Q 13
6.8%
7.4%
6.4%
6.2%
6.2%
3.3%
7.7%
6.5%
6.3%
8.5%
6.7%
3.7%
7.1%
3Q 13
6.8%
6.3%
7.3%
6.5%
5.6%
4.5%
6.4%
8.5%
7.9%
6.2%
7.2%
5.1%
6.5%
4Q 13
6.4%
5.6%
6.6%
7.0%
4.2%
3.6%
6.8%
9.2%
7.7%
5.5%
6.9%
4.9%
7.3%
1Q 14
8.5%
7.8%
8.5%
9.0%
7.1%
6.9%
8.6%
10.8%
9.2%
7.5%
8.7%
8.3%
8.6%
2Q 14
7.2%
9.3%
8.4%
7.9%
5.2%
6.6%
7.6%
10.5%
9.5%
4.8%
8.6%
7.6%
5.0%
3Q 14
8.3%
11.1%
8.9%
8.6%
5.9%
7.3%
9.6%
8.8%
9.6%
8.0%
9.0%
8.4%
7.0%
4Q 14
10.5%
14.1%
11.4%
10.1%
8.9%
11.3%
9.4%
9.6%
10.9%
11.8%
10.8%
10.6%
9.9%
1Q 15
10.0%
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
7.5%
8.4%
10.0%
9.8%
9.8%
11.7%
10.3%
8.4%
9.4%
1Q 13
5.5%
4.2%
5.5%
5.4%
5.5%
3.4%
5.3%
5.1%
6.2%
7.3%
6.1%
3.0%
3.6%
2Q 13
6.9%
7.3%
6.5%
6.4%
6.6%
3.6%
7.7%
6.6%
6.6%
8.5%
6.8%
3.9%
7.0%
3Q 13
6.7%
6.4%
7.1%
6.4%
5.2%
4.7%
5.9%
8.2%
7.9%
5.9%
7.0%
5.3%
6.0%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.8%
5.9%
6.9%
7.3%
4.6%
3.9%
6.9%
9.5%
8.3%
5.6%
7.2%
5.8%
7.6%
REVENUE
1Q 14
9.0%
8.2%
9.0%
9.3%
7.3%
7.2%
8.8%
11.1%
9.7%
8.0%
9.1%
8.3%
10.1%
CHANGE
2Q 14
7.4%
9.3%
8.8%
8.1%
5.1%
6.2%
8.2%
10.8%
9.9%
5.1%
9.0%
7.7%
4.7%
3Q 14
8.9%
11.4%
9.5%
9.2%
6.1%
7.7%
10.7%
9.4%
9.9%
8.5%
9.4%
9.3%
7.6%
4Q 14
10.3%
13.7%
11.3%
9.9%
8.8%
10.0%
10.0%
9.5%
11.1%
12.2%
10.8%
9.6%
9.8%
1Q 15
10.2%
11.2%
10.9%
9.9%
7.4%
8.6%
10.5%
10.5%
10.1%
11.9%
10.7%
9.2%
8.4%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
1,249
4,141
(5)
392
0.2%
0.7%
1Q 13
566,911
175,799
31.0%
2Q 13
1,448
5,246
6,307
5,999
0.3%
0.9%
2Q 13
568,359
179,959
31.7%
3Q 13
2,118
5,654
1,681
4,620
0.4%
1.0%
3Q 13
570,376
183,983
32.3%
4Q 13
2,803
7,618
1,436
9,421
0.5%
1.3%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
573,179
176,548
30.8%
1Q 14
1,193
7,562
531
9,956
0.2%
1.3%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
574,345
182,485
31.8%
2Q 14
1,716
7,830
4,472
8,121
0.3%
1.4%
2Q 14
576,061
184,903
32.1%
3Q 14
3,362
9,074
5,481
11,921
0.6%
1.6%
3Q 14
579,321
190,247
32.8%
4Q 14
2,564
8,835
(3,202)
7,283
0.4%
1.5%
4Q 14
581,495
188,917
32.5%
1Q 15
1,525
9,167
2,910
9,661
0.2%
1.5%
1Q 15
582,820
185,040
31.7%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 21
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA: SAN FRANCISCO
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
95.6%
95.8%
95.2%
95.8%
97.1%
93.3%
96.6%
96.5%
96.5%
95.3%
95.7%
96.1%
95.2%
2Q 13
96.8%
96.9%
96.2%
97.3%
98.4%
96.4%
96.4%
97.5%
97.8%
96.2%
96.7%
97.2%
96.7%
3Q 13
96.5%
97.6%
96.2%
96.6%
97.3%
96.6%
96.4%
96.5%
97.5%
95.9%
96.4%
96.9%
96.4%
4Q 13
96.5%
97.1%
96.1%
96.8%
97.5%
96.6%
96.3%
97.0%
97.2%
96.0%
96.4%
97.1%
96.5%
1Q 14
96.4%
96.9%
96.2%
96.4%
97.3%
96.6%
96.4%
96.5%
96.5%
96.3%
96.0%
97.0%
96.8%
2Q 14
96.5%
96.7%
96.0%
96.9%
97.5%
95.7%
96.4%
96.4%
97.3%
96.3%
96.5%
97.1%
96.0%
3Q 14
97.3%
97.6%
97.0%
97.6%
97.6%
98.3%
96.3%
97.7%
97.7%
96.6%
96.8%
98.3%
97.4%
4Q 14
96.4%
96.8%
96.3%
96.2%
97.4%
94.5%
96.0%
97.0%
97.4%
96.8%
96.6%
95.8%
96.4%
1Q 15
96.3%
96.2%
96.3%
96.3%
97.6%
95.3%
96.1%
96.8%
97.1%
96.3%
96.8%
96.6%
95.5%
1Q 13
$2,359
$1,915
$2,101
$2,706
$2,984
$2,843
$2,485 $2,409 $1,967
$2,353
$2,008
$2,466
$2,866
2Q 13
$2,498
$1,933
$2,231
$2,877
$3,155
$2,913
$2,623 $2,592 $2,083
$2,493
$2,141
$2,541
$3,013
3Q 13
$2,481
$1,955
$2,210
$2,863
$3,159
$2,926
$2,731 $2,594 $2,114
$2,441
$2,135
$2,579
$3,004
4Q 13
$2,484
$2,064
$2,189
$2,861
$3,183
$2,829
$2,810 $2,627 $2,096
$2,451
$2,146
$2,535
$3,008
1Q 14
$2,535
$2,132
$2,238
$2,910
$3,198
$2,922
$2,687 $2,718 $2,098
$2,504
$2,173
$2,615
$3,044
2Q 14
$2,617
$2,108
$2,319
$3,022
$3,296
$3,035
$2,874 $2,740 $2,179
$2,552
$2,268
$2,734
$3,078
3Q 14
$2,690
$2,203
$2,394
$3,090
$3,359
$3,091
$2,954 $2,781 $2,269
$2,635
$2,328
$2,742
$3,203
4Q 14
$2,802
$2,367
$2,524
$3,174
$3,422
$3,253
$2,921 $2,836 $2,306
$2,773
$2,380
$2,848
$3,362
1Q 15
$2,831
$2,498
$2,540
$3,201
$3,376
$3,243
$3,038 $2,881 $2,241
$2,837
$2,391
$2,929
$3,427
1Q 13
$2.903
$4.124
$3.124
$2.687
$2.354
$3.216
$2.884 $3.258 $2.488
$2.861
$2.463
$3.175
$3.469
2Q 13
$3.076
$4.163
$3.310
$2.865
$2.498
$3.309
$3.093 $3.524 $2.617
$3.047
$2.625
$3.289
$3.639
3Q 13
$3.077
$4.237
$3.292
$2.868
$2.512
$3.345
$3.242 $3.524 $2.669
$2.986
$2.650
$3.370
$3.630
4Q 13
$3.086
$4.438
$3.288
$2.875
$2.524
$3.249
$3.276 $3.605 $2.669
$2.995
$2.656
$3.302
$3.669
1Q 14
$3.120
$4.489
$3.335
$2.906
$2.534
$3.342
$3.136 $3.653 $2.674
$3.036
$2.680
$3.310
$3.683
2Q 14
$3.239
$4.446
$3.456
$3.034
$2.637
$3.511
$3.355 $3.688 $2.788
$3.129
$2.814
$3.475
$3.743
3Q 14
$3.327
$4.708
$3.556
$3.097
$2.681
$3.585
$3.485 $3.747 $2.880
$3.227
$2.873
$3.554
$3.878
4Q 14
$3.457
$4.980
$3.743
$3.176
$2.732
$3.774
$3.403 $3.818 $2.932
$3.396
$2.953
$3.604
$4.061
1Q 15
$3.478
$5.252
$3.761
$3.200
$2.692
$3.762
$3.538 $3.848 $2.863
$3.446
$2.953
$3.666
$4.134
1Q 13
6.3%
5.0%
5.6%
6.8%
8.5%
2.5%
5.0%
4.0%
7.7%
9.6%
8.8%
4.4%
4.3%
2Q 13
7.8%
8.6%
7.8%
7.0%
11.9%
2.2%
5.3%
6.9%
7.2%
11.2%
9.3%
4.1%
7.6%
6.2%
3Q 13
6.6%
5.5%
6.6%
6.3%
9.7%
4.5%
2.7%
9.3%
7.5%
6.4%
6.9%
6.8%
4Q 13
6.0%
7.1%
4.7%
7.5%
5.3%
5.9%
12.7%
7.6%
7.6%
3.2%
5.4%
4.2%
7.7%
1Q 14
8.1%
10.1%
7.0%
8.8%
9.1%
6.4%
10.9%
11.6%
8.3%
6.5%
8.1%
7.6%
8.3%
4.5%
2Q 14
5.1%
7.6%
4.5%
5.1%
6.3%
5.5%
10.8%
6.2%
7.0%
2.1%
5.7%
5.0%
3Q 14
7.4%
13.1%
7.0%
7.2%
6.4%
5.9%
9.9%
5.9%
8.6%
7.7%
7.9%
6.5%
7.3%
4Q 14
9.8%
14.2%
11.0%
8.1%
8.9%
8.2%
6.2%
6.1%
10.1%
13.4%
10.3%
10.1%
9.1%
1Q 15
10.2%
12.7%
11.3%
9.3%
7.3%
7.6%
11.8%
6.1%
9.8%
13.9%
10.5%
10.5%
9.8%
1Q 13
5.5%
3.8%
4.6%
6.3%
8.5%
-0.8%
4.9%
4.2%
7.5%
8.9%
8.0%
3.4%
3.8%
2Q 13
7.8%
8.0%
7.3%
7.6%
13.1%
2.3%
4.2%
7.3%
8.0%
10.9%
9.1%
3.9%
8.0%
3Q 13
6.4%
6.1%
6.4%
6.0%
9.6%
4.4%
2.5%
8.5%
8.2%
6.0%
7.0%
6.8%
5.4%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.6%
8.1%
4.9%
8.4%
6.7%
6.4%
13.1%
7.7%
9.2%
3.6%
5.9%
5.6%
8.2%
REVENUE
1Q 14
8.9%
11.2%
8.0%
9.4%
9.3%
9.7%
10.7%
11.6%
8.3%
7.5%
8.4%
8.5%
9.9%
CHANGE
2Q 14
4.8%
7.4%
4.3%
4.7%
5.4%
4.8%
10.8%
5.1%
6.5%
2.2%
5.5%
4.9%
3.8%
3Q 14
8.2%
13.1%
7.8%
8.2%
6.7%
7.6%
9.8%
7.1%
8.8%
8.4%
8.3%
7.9%
8.3%
4Q 14
9.7%
13.9%
11.2%
7.5%
8.8%
6.1%
5.9%
6.1%
10.3%
14.2%
10.5%
8.8%
9.0%
1Q 15
10.1%
12.0%
11.4%
9.2%
7.6%
6.3%
11.5%
6.4%
10.4%
13.9%
11.3%
10.1%
8.5%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
(707)
0.1%
0.5%
1Q 13
222,857
40,445
18.1%
1,457
0.2%
0.7%
2Q 13
223,246
40,610
18.2%
1,623
0.5%
0.9%
3Q 13
224,381
41,445
18.5%
438
3,576
0.2%
1.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
224,756
39,996
17.8%
34
4,025
0.2%
1.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
225,107
42,028
18.7%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
326
1,067
(414)
2Q 13
389
1,442
3,100
3Q 13
1,135
2,099
453
4Q 13
375
2,225
1Q 14
351
2,250
Ann
CHANGE
2Q 14
708
2,569
781
1,706
0.3%
1.2%
2Q 14
225,815
42,743
18.9%
3Q 14
1,434
2,868
3,305
4,559
0.6%
1.3%
3Q 14
227,249
43,244
19.0%
4Q 14
816
3,309
(1,278)
2,843
0.4%
1.5%
4Q 14
228,065
43,527
19.1%
1Q 15
520
3,478
358
3,167
0.2%
1.5%
1Q 15
228,585
42,812
18.7%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 22
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA: SAN JOSE
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.5%
97.5%
96.4%
96.5%
96.8%
96.7%
96.0%
96.4%
96.5%
96.8%
96.6%
95.9%
94.6%
2Q 13
97.1%
97.4%
96.9%
97.2%
97.5%
97.2%
96.5%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
97.2%
96.5%
96.2%
3Q 13
97.1%
96.3%
97.1%
97.1%
97.6%
97.5%
95.7%
97.3%
97.4%
96.9%
97.1%
96.9%
98.3%
4Q 13
96.6%
95.5%
96.8%
96.5%
97.2%
96.8%
95.3%
97.1%
96.9%
96.7%
96.6%
96.7%
97.2%
1Q 14
96.8%
95.3%
96.8%
96.8%
97.3%
96.6%
96.5%
96.9%
97.0%
96.8%
96.9%
96.1%
95.9%
2Q 14
97.5%
96.3%
97.6%
97.5%
97.3%
97.0%
97.1%
97.7%
97.9%
97.2%
97.7%
96.2%
97.0%
3Q 14
97.6%
96.6%
97.6%
97.8%
97.6%
97.7%
97.4%
97.4%
97.7%
97.9%
97.7%
97.4%
98.1%
4Q 14
96.5%
96.3%
96.6%
96.4%
96.6%
95.9%
96.2%
96.9%
96.8%
96.5%
96.6%
96.3%
94.4%
1Q 15
97.1%
95.7%
97.1%
97.1%
96.9%
96.8%
97.1%
97.2%
97.2%
97.0%
97.1%
96.8%
95.9%
1Q 13
$1,916
$1,332
$1,703
$2,105
$2,383
$2,164
$2,018 $1,927 $1,737
$1,836
$1,850
$2,235
$2,477
2Q 13
$2,009
$1,285
$1,761
$2,234
$2,507
$2,251
$2,159 $1,996 $1,823
$1,946
$1,939
$2,346
$2,854
3Q 13
$2,068
$1,343
$1,837
$2,288
$2,547
$2,303
$2,152 $2,042 $1,915
$2,014
$1,991
$2,442
$2,915
4Q 13
$2,058
$1,282
$1,832
$2,280
$2,487
$2,262
$2,107 $2,099 $1,878
$2,043
$1,985
$2,412
$2,650
1Q 14
$2,107
$1,360
$1,880
$2,325
$2,539
$2,349
$2,189 $2,113 $1,929
$2,019
$2,031
$2,440
$2,921
2Q 14
$2,194
$1,453
$1,960
$2,428
$2,602
$2,409
$2,295 $2,224 $2,017
$2,088
$2,112
$2,548
$2,985
3Q 14
$2,271
$1,474
$2,034
$2,512
$2,677
$2,492
$2,387 $2,268 $2,094
$2,179
$2,183
$2,634
$3,062
4Q 14
$2,291
$1,501
$2,057
$2,517
$2,747
$2,540
$2,370 $2,306 $2,081
$2,193
$2,191
$2,690
$3,134
1Q 15
$2,325
$1,614
$2,081
$2,552
$2,785
$2,552
$2,443 $2,341 $2,125
$2,193
$2,241
$2,654
$3,119
1Q 13
$2.225
$2.934
$2.452
$2.104
$1.884
$2.238
$2.251 $2.298 $2.162
$2.217
$2.195
$2.388
$2.173
2Q 13
$2.326
$2.876
$2.533
$2.230
$1.970
$2.314
$2.402 $2.373 $2.268
$2.332
$2.287
$2.519
$2.540
3Q 13
$2.401
$2.993
$2.639
$2.284
$2.009
$2.399
$2.388 $2.431 $2.380
$2.432
$2.355
$2.631
$2.631
4Q 13
$2.381
$2.761
$2.623
$2.272
$1.963
$2.335
$2.342 $2.502 $2.339
$2.454
$2.339
$2.599
$2.417
1Q 14
$2.437
$2.933
$2.692
$2.317
$2.010
$2.437
$2.429 $2.516 $2.391
$2.438
$2.394
$2.634
$2.637
2Q 14
$2.540
$3.223
$2.810
$2.417
$2.053
$2.519
$2.548 $2.653 $2.504
$2.510
$2.494
$2.749
$2.694
3Q 14
$2.630
$3.283
$2.915
$2.500
$2.110
$2.613
$2.647 $2.701 $2.598
$2.624
$2.581
$2.838
$2.764
4Q 14
$2.640
$3.311
$2.939
$2.498
$2.150
$2.658
$2.627 $2.739 $2.579
$2.624
$2.579
$2.890
$2.829
1Q 15
$2.670
$3.385
$2.963
$2.532
$2.172
$2.649
$2.694 $2.781 $2.622
$2.635
$2.626
$2.848
$2.815
1Q 13
5.6%
8.1%
6.3%
5.0%
4.9%
3.9%
5.4%
7.0%
6.5%
4.7%
6.5%
1.8%
-1.2%
2Q 13
5.0%
5.0%
4.7%
5.3%
4.2%
1.1%
8.3%
6.0%
6.1%
3.6%
5.9%
0.9%
0.0%
3Q 13
5.9%
13.3%
6.9%
5.3%
3.2%
3.2%
5.9%
6.2%
8.5%
5.0%
6.4%
3.4%
6.8%
4Q 13
7.0%
4.4%
7.3%
7.4%
4.0%
3.2%
5.5%
9.9%
7.9%
8.8%
7.0%
7.6%
2.0%
1Q 14
8.7%
3.3%
9.0%
9.2%
5.0%
7.6%
7.5%
9.8%
9.3%
9.0%
8.5%
9.0%
12.7%
2Q 14
8.9%
14.5%
10.4%
8.2%
4.0%
6.1%
6.4%
12.5%
10.4%
8.3%
9.1%
8.5%
2.7%
3Q 14
9.0%
5.7%
9.7%
9.2%
5.1%
6.8%
11.0%
11.1%
9.2%
7.9%
9.3%
8.2%
5.1%
4Q 14
10.6%
13.5%
11.5%
9.9%
9.4%
11.3%
11.7%
9.7%
11.1%
7.9%
10.4%
10.4%
16.7%
1Q 15
9.3%
11.6%
9.8%
9.0%
8.1%
8.3%
9.8%
10.2%
10.1%
7.3%
9.8%
7.1%
6.8%
1Q 13
4.9%
7.6%
5.6%
4.3%
4.3%
3.7%
4.4%
5.6%
6.0%
4.0%
5.8%
0.8%
-2.1%
2Q 13
4.8%
5.0%
4.4%
5.1%
4.0%
0.7%
7.9%
6.0%
5.9%
3.5%
5.8%
0.2%
-2.9%
3Q 13
5.6%
11.3%
6.5%
5.3%
2.3%
3.5%
4.8%
6.4%
8.2%
3.8%
6.0%
3.7%
8.3%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
7.3%
2.3%
7.8%
7.8%
4.1%
3.8%
5.5%
10.6%
8.5%
8.1%
7.2%
8.7%
3.6%
REVENUE
1Q 14
9.0%
1.1%
9.4%
9.5%
5.5%
7.5%
8.0%
10.3%
9.8%
9.0%
8.8%
9.2%
14.0%
CHANGE
2Q 14
9.3%
13.4%
11.1%
8.5%
3.8%
5.9%
7.0%
13.0%
11.1%
8.3%
9.6%
8.2%
3.5%
3Q 14
9.5%
6.0%
10.2%
9.9%
5.1%
7.0%
12.7%
11.2%
9.5%
8.9%
9.9%
8.7%
4.9%
4Q 14
10.5%
14.3%
11.3%
9.8%
8.8%
10.4%
12.6%
9.5%
11.0%
7.7%
10.4%
10.0%
13.9%
1Q 15
9.6%
12.0%
10.1%
9.3%
7.7%
8.5%
10.4%
10.5%
10.3%
7.5%
10.0%
7.8%
6.8%
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
988
0.5%
1.4%
1Q 13
147,963
67,533
45.6%
2,472
0.6%
2.0%
2Q 13
148,860
68,911
46.3%
2,305
0.5%
1.9%
3Q 13
149,636
70,401
47.0%
189
3,720
0.6%
2.3%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
150,544
68,468
45.5%
937
3,669
0.5%
2.3%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
151,296
69,372
45.9%
3,438
1,968
3,878
0.6%
2.3%
2Q 14
152,271
71,088
46.7%
1,208
3,870
1,417
4,511
0.8%
2.5%
3Q 14
153,419
73,046
47.6%
4Q 14
1,067
4,029
(952)
3,370
0.6%
2.5%
4Q 14
154,298
72,710
47.1%
1Q 15
927
4,177
1,718
4,151
0.6%
2.5%
1Q 15
155,149
70,204
45.2%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
743
2,110
988
2Q 13
897
2,915
1,759
3Q 13
776
2,825
784
4Q 13
908
3,324
1Q 14
779
3,360
2Q 14
975
3Q 14
© 2015 MPF Research
Qtrly
Ann
CHANGE
BAY AREA | 23
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA: OAKLAND
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.6%
96.0%
96.7%
96.6%
97.3%
96.4%
97.0%
96.2%
96.6%
97.8%
96.7%
96.2%
95.3%
2Q 13
97.3%
97.4%
97.3%
97.3%
97.6%
97.3%
97.5%
96.7%
97.7%
97.9%
97.5%
96.6%
95.1%
3Q 13
97.5%
97.9%
97.5%
97.4%
97.3%
97.6%
97.3%
96.9%
97.7%
98.5%
97.5%
97.3%
97.5%
4Q 13
97.1%
97.0%
97.3%
96.9%
97.5%
96.9%
96.7%
96.9%
97.2%
98.5%
97.3%
96.6%
94.6%
1Q 14
96.9%
98.0%
96.9%
96.8%
97.1%
95.6%
96.9%
96.6%
97.6%
98.3%
97.2%
95.1%
96.1%
2Q 14
97.7%
98.9%
97.8%
97.6%
97.9%
97.1%
98.1%
97.3%
98.1%
98.6%
97.8%
97.1%
97.6%
3Q 14
97.8%
98.9%
98.0%
97.6%
97.5%
97.8%
98.1%
97.4%
97.8%
98.3%
97.8%
98.1%
95.9%
4Q 14
97.1%
95.0%
97.2%
97.0%
97.8%
95.5%
97.3%
96.8%
97.6%
98.6%
97.4%
95.1%
96.7%
1Q 15
97.5%
97.6%
97.7%
97.3%
97.2%
96.6%
97.5%
97.5%
97.8%
98.2%
97.6%
97.0%
96.3%
1Q 13
$1,525
$1,246
$1,355
$1,665
$1,779
$1,814
$1,765 $1,480 $1,366
$1,321
$1,470
$1,770
$2,104
2Q 13
$1,565
$1,244
$1,395
$1,707
$1,825
$1,843
$1,763 $1,529 $1,381
$1,440
$1,500
$1,810
$2,460
3Q 13
$1,641
$1,278
$1,450
$1,799
$1,970
$1,926
$1,832 $1,630 $1,432
$1,492
$1,582
$1,855
$2,610
4Q 13
$1,643
$1,312
$1,463
$1,793
$1,941
$1,894
$1,789 $1,612 $1,463
$1,552
$1,577
$1,862
$2,586
1Q 14
$1,683
$1,323
$1,492
$1,849
$1,933
$1,927
$1,882 $1,653 $1,492
$1,558
$1,616
$1,900
$2,689
2Q 14
$1,724
$1,350
$1,533
$1,895
$1,933
$2,010
$1,912 $1,704 $1,530
$1,533
$1,657
$1,976
$2,649
3Q 14
$1,787
$1,473
$1,588
$1,964
$2,004
$2,108
$1,968 $1,763 $1,583
$1,589
$1,710
$2,091
$2,614
4Q 14
$1,815
$1,562
$1,614
$1,988
$2,059
$2,180
$1,940 $1,795 $1,622
$1,583
$1,748
$2,108
$2,551
1Q 15
$1,841
$1,449
$1,640
$2,013
$2,075
$2,126
$2,039 $1,844 $1,645
$1,626
$1,780
$2,092
$2,576
1Q 13
$1.840
$2.465
$1.997
$1.766
$1.489
$1.998
$2.066 $1.809 $1.734
$1.658
$1.781
$2.091
$2.571
2Q 13
$1.893
$2.478
$2.063
$1.816
$1.514
$2.027
$2.100 $1.865 $1.756
$1.813
$1.821
$2.166
$2.791
3Q 13
$1.986
$2.558
$2.146
$1.907
$1.640
$2.134
$2.174 $1.980 $1.822
$1.894
$1.923
$2.216
$2.865
4Q 13
$1.990
$2.614
$2.164
$1.905
$1.629
$2.090
$2.131 $1.978 $1.859
$1.969
$1.919
$2.218
$2.949
1Q 14
$2.031
$2.629
$2.207
$1.957
$1.608
$2.134
$2.234 $2.020 $1.897
$1.932
$1.955
$2.280
$3.066
2Q 14
$2.083
$2.686
$2.265
$2.010
$1.612
$2.220
$2.279 $2.078 $1.946
$1.924
$2.008
$2.344
$3.211
3Q 14
$2.161
$2.903
$2.345
$2.082
$1.664
$2.330
$2.345 $2.157 $2.019
$1.982
$2.081
$2.472
$2.982
4Q 14
$2.196
$2.993
$2.391
$2.108
$1.708
$2.407
$2.274 $2.195 $2.068
$2.006
$2.130
$2.457
$2.944
1Q 15
$2.218
$2.785
$2.423
$2.139
$1.725
$2.347
$2.386 $2.247 $2.086
$2.042
$2.158
$2.450
$2.973
1Q 13
6.3%
2.9%
6.6%
6.4%
4.9%
7.0%
7.4%
5.7%
5.7%
6.9%
6.1%
6.5%
11.8%
2Q 13
6.9%
6.9%
7.5%
6.7%
4.4%
7.1%
7.6%
6.7%
5.9%
8.3%
6.7%
7.5%
9.8%
3Q 13
7.9%
1.5%
8.6%
8.0%
5.5%
6.2%
8.5%
9.8%
7.1%
7.7%
8.3%
5.7%
10.6%
4Q 13
6.6%
2.9%
7.7%
6.3%
3.4%
2.8%
5.0%
9.5%
7.6%
7.4%
7.4%
2.5%
8.0%
1Q 14
9.1%
6.5%
9.6%
9.0%
8.3%
6.4%
8.7%
11.1%
9.7%
8.8%
9.4%
8.0%
9.5%
13.8%
2Q 14
9.4%
8.3%
9.8%
9.5%
5.9%
8.2%
7.4%
11.3%
9.9%
8.3%
9.3%
9.0%
3Q 14
9.1%
12.5%
9.6%
8.9%
6.7%
8.8%
7.6%
8.7%
11.0%
9.1%
9.0%
10.5%
5.1%
4Q 14
11.5%
14.5%
11.6%
11.7%
8.1%
13.1%
8.1%
11.6%
11.2%
12.5%
11.5%
11.4%
12.5%
1Q 15
10.2%
7.7%
10.7%
10.3%
6.8%
9.4%
9.0%
11.5%
9.5%
11.4%
10.8%
7.8%
7.9%
1Q 13
5.8%
1.7%
6.2%
6.0%
4.9%
6.2%
7.1%
5.1%
5.3%
7.1%
5.8%
5.6%
9.2%
2Q 13
7.5%
8.1%
8.3%
7.2%
5.0%
8.2%
8.8%
6.7%
6.6%
9.2%
7.3%
8.9%
7.2%
10.6%
3Q 13
8.0%
2.7%
8.6%
8.0%
5.5%
6.4%
8.7%
9.4%
7.1%
8.6%
8.3%
6.2%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.7%
4.4%
8.0%
6.1%
3.7%
2.8%
4.8%
9.5%
7.9%
8.1%
7.6%
2.7%
4.4%
REVENUE
1Q 14
9.4%
8.5%
9.8%
9.2%
8.1%
5.6%
8.6%
11.5%
10.7%
9.3%
9.9%
6.9%
10.3%
CHANGE
2Q 14
9.8%
9.8%
10.3%
9.8%
6.2%
8.0%
8.0%
11.9%
10.3%
9.0%
9.6%
9.5%
16.3%
3Q 14
9.4%
13.5%
10.1%
9.1%
6.9%
9.0%
8.4%
9.2%
11.1%
8.9%
9.3%
11.3%
3.5%
4Q 14
11.5%
12.5%
11.5%
11.8%
8.4%
11.7%
8.7%
11.5%
11.6%
12.6%
11.6%
9.9%
14.6%
1Q 15
10.8%
7.3%
11.5%
10.8%
6.9%
10.4%
9.6%
12.4%
9.7%
11.3%
11.2%
9.7%
8.1%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
180
964
(576)
113
0.1%
0.5%
1Q 13
196,091
67,821
34.6%
2Q 13
162
889
1,446
2,070
0.1%
0.5%
2Q 13
196,253
70,438
35.9%
36.7%
3Q 13
207
730
446
693
0.1%
0.3%
3Q 13
196,359
72,137
4Q 13
1,520
2,069
809
2,125
0.8%
1.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
197,879
68,084
34.4%
1Q 14
63
1,952
(440)
2,261
0.0%
0.9%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
197,942
71,085
35.9%
2Q 14
33
1,823
1,724
2,539
0.0%
0.9%
2Q 14
197,975
71,072
35.9%
3Q 14
720
2,336
758
2,851
0.3%
1.2%
3Q 14
198,653
73,957
37.2%
4Q 14
681
1,497
(974)
1,069
0.2%
0.6%
4Q 14
199,132
72,680
36.5%
1Q 15
78
1,512
833
2,342
0.0%
0.6%
1Q 15
199,086
72,024
36.2%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 24
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
RANKINGS
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
Submarket
Rate
Submarket
SJ8
East San Jose
98.6%
SF2
SJ7
Central San Jose
98.2%
SF1
Downtown San Francisco
$3,190
98.2%
SF3
West San Francisco
$3,055
OAK2 Hayward/San Leandro/Union City
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
multiple submarkets
$3,677
98.2%
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
$2,787
98.1%
SJ3
South Sunnyv ale/Cupertino
$2,705
QUARTERLY OCCUPANCY CHANGE
Submarket
Rate
SoMa
Change
ANNUAL OCCUPANCY CHANGE
Submarket
Change
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
1.4
SJ2
North Sunnyv ale
1.3
SF4
North San Mateo County
1.9
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
1.3
SJ2
North Sunnyv ale
1.5
SJ7
Central San Jose
OAK3 Oakland/Berkeley
OAK8 San Ramon/Dublin
1.2
OAK5 Concord/Martinez
1.3
1.2
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
1.3
QUARTERLY RENT CHANGE
Submarket
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Change
OAK4 Northwest Contra Costa County
SJ2
2.3
3.8%
North Sunnyv ale
3.1%
OAK1 Fremont
Submarket
SF1
Change
Downtown San Francisco
14.3%
OAK1 Fremont
13.2%
2.8%
SF4
North San Mateo County
12.1%
SF3
West San Francisco
2.6%
SJ2
North Sunnyv ale
11.9%
SJ4
Santa Clara
2.5%
SF3
West San Francisco
11.6%
QUARTERLY REVENUE CHANGE
Submarket
ANNUAL REVENUE CHANGE
Change
OAK4 Northwest Contra Costa County
Submarket
Change
4.6%
SF4
North San Mateo County
14.0%
North Sunnyv ale
4.4%
SF1
Downtown San Francisco
13.9%
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
3.4%
SJ2
North Sunnyv ale
13.4%
SJ2
OAK1 Fremont
multiple submarkets
2.8%
OAK1 Fremont
13.2%
2.6%
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
12.1%
UNITS OFFERING CONCESSIONS
Submarket
multiple submarkets
ANNUAL INVENTORY GROWTH
Rate
Submarket
0.0%
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
12.0%
SF2
SoMa
6.0%
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
Change
3.6%
SF6
South San Mateo County
3.0%
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
2.5%
Note: For metros with more than five submarkets, only the top five are shown.
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 25
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
1Q 2015
RANKINGS
QUARTERLY DEMAND
Submarket
ANNUAL DEMAND
Units
OAK3 Oakland/Berkeley
699
Submarket
Units
SF2
SoMa
1,765
1,427
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
552
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
SJ7
Central San Jose
374
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
SF4
North San Mateo County
314
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
735
SF2
SoMa
307
OAK3 Oakland/Berkeley
691
QUARTERLY SUPPLY
Submarket
738
ANNUAL SUPPLY
Units
475
Submarket
Units
SF2
SoMa
1,715
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
SF1
Downtown San Francisco
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
244
SJ7
Central San Jose
218
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
200
SJ1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
875
SJ5
West San Jose/Campbell
168
SF1
Downtown San Francisco
747
FORECAST OCCUPANCY
OAK3 Oakland/Berkeley
FORECAST ANNUAL OCCUPANCY CHANGE
Submarket
Rate
Submarket
SJ8
East San Jose
1,445
1,016
Change
98.3%
SJ6
South San Jose
1.0
OAK2 Hayward/San Leandro/Union City
98.0%
SF3
West San Francisco
0.4
OAK1 Fremont
97.9%
SF4
North San Mateo County
0.3
OAK4 Northwest Contra Costa County
97.9%
SJ3
South Sunnyv ale/Cupertino
0.3
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
97.8%
multiple submarkets
0.2
UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
TOTAL FUTURE INVENTORY GROWTH
Submarket
Units
Submarket
SF2
SoMa
6,401
SF2
SoMa
21.0%
SJ7
Central San Jose
2,297
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
15.9%
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
2,142
SJ7
Central San Jose
10.6%
SF6
South San Mateo County
1,498
SF6
South San Mateo County
OAK3 Oakland/Berkeley
782
UNITS COMPLETING IN THE NEXT YEAR
OAK9 Liv ermore/Pleasanton
Change
8.5%
8.2%
INVENTORY GROWTH IN THE NEXT YEAR
Submarket
Units
Submarket
SF2
SoMa
3,009
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
11.8%
SJ9
North San Jose/Milpitas
1,588
SF2
SoMa
9.9%
SF6
South San Mateo County
1,498
SF6
South San Mateo County
8.5%
SJ7
Central San Jose
SJ7
Central San Jose
4.3%
OAK7 Walnut Creek/Lafayette
3.0%
OAK3 Oakland/Berkeley
927
782
Change
Note: For metros with more than five submarkets, only the top five are shown.
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 26
SAN FRANCISCO SUBMARKETS
BAY AREA | 27
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
Submarket Number (Key Below)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Quarterly Supply
475
0
45
0
0
0
0
520
Annual Supply
747
1,715
133
54
308
521
0
3,478
2
1
5
6
4
3
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.9%
6.0%
0.4%
0.3%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
1.5%
Rank
Annual Removals
Annual Inventory Change
Rank
SUPPLY
4
1
5
6
3
2
7
1,230
2,813
148
54
830
653
0
Two-Year Inventory Change
1.5%
10.2%
0.4%
0.3%
4.1%
3.8%
0.0%
2.6%
Five-Year Supply
1,541
4,181
632
513
898
727
60
8,552
2
1
5
6
3
4
7
1.9%
15.9%
1.7%
2.8%
4.5%
4.3%
0.3%
Five-Year Avg Annual Change
0.3%
3.0%
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
0.1%
0.7%
83,691
30,473
37,567
18,875
20,947
17,658
19,374
228,585
602
6,401
0
0
232
1,498
180
8,913
3
1
6
6
4
2
5
All Active Construction
Rank
Quarterly Demand
-74
307
-303
314
-34
174
-26
358
499
1,765
-83
491
476
63
-43
3,167
Two-Year Demand
1,504
3,223
347
803
1,055
357
-95
7,191
Five-Year Demand
1,136
4,178
1,128
1,006
834
385
551
9,212
Current Rate
96.7%
96.0%
96.2%
96.7%
96.1%
94.6%
97.4%
96.3%
2
6
4
2
5
7
1
Quarterly Change
-0.8
0.6
-1.8
1.1
-0.4
0.6
-0.3
-0.1
Annual Change
-0.4
-0.8
-0.6
1.9
0.4
-2.6
-0.3
-0.1
4
6
5
1
2
7
3
Rank
Two-Year Change
0.3
2.3
-0.4
3.4
0.7
-1.9
-0.6
Five-Year Change
-0.5
0.9
1.0
2.3
-1.1
-2.0
2.7
0.4
97.0%
96.5%
95.5%
95.2%
96.4%
97.1%
97.2%
96.3%
Five-Year Average Rate
Rank
3
4
6
7
5
2
1
$3,677
$3,055
$2,282
$2,655
$2,682
$2,283
2
1
3
7
5
4
6
$4.680
$4.681
$3.171
$3.158
$3.079
$3.105
$2.617
2
1
3
4
6
5
7
Quarterly Same-Store Change
2.1%
-0.6%
2.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
Annual Same-Store Change
14.3%
8.5%
11.6%
12.1%
7.7%
10.2%
7.2%
10.2%
Rank
Rent Per Square Foot
Rank
Rank
1
5
3
2
6
4
7
15.1%
21.4%
17.9%
17.4%
19.0%
18.5%
18.3%
Five-Year Same-Store Change
49.1%
36.3%
35.7%
45.0%
46.8%
45.8%
31.8%
42.2%
1
5
6
4
2
3
7
8.8%
7.1%
6.1%
8.4%
8.6%
8.4%
5.6%
1
5
6
3
2
3
7
Units with Concessions
0.0%
4.3%
0.0%
0.4%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
Average Concession
n.a.
0.6%
n.a.
0.3%
4.4%
n.a.
n.a.
1.6%
Quarterly Change
1.3%
0.0%
0.8%
1.5%
0.0%
1.5%
0.4%
0.7%
Annual Change
13.9%
7.7%
11.0%
14.0%
8.1%
7.6%
6.9%
10.1%
Rank
Rank
7.6%
2
5
3
1
4
6
7
Two-Year Change
20.7%
17.4%
21.0%
21.3%
18.1%
17.1%
17.9%
19.0%
Five-Year Change
48.6%
37.2%
36.7%
47.3%
45.7%
43.8%
34.5%
42.6%
1
5
6
2
3
4
7
Rank
Five-Year Average Annual Change
9.1%
7.2%
7.2%
8.9%
8.7%
8.5%
6.1%
8.0%
Supply
492
3,009
0
0
232
1,498
180
5,411
Rank
Inventory Growth Rate
Rank
Demand
Occupancy Rate
Rank
Occupancy Change
Rank
© 2015 MPF Research
$3.478
20.4%
Five-Year Average Annual Change
Submarket Key
$2,831
Two-Year Same-Store Change
Rank
ONE-YEAR FORECAST
0.7
$3,190
Monthly Rent
REVENUE
3.9%
Annual Demand
Rank
RENT
5,728
Five-Year Inventory Change
Existing Units
OCCUPANCY
METRO
Two-Year Supply
Rank
DEMAND
1Q 2015
3
1
6
6
4
2
5
0.6%
9.9%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
8.5%
0.9%
5
1
6
6
3
2
4
2.4%
571
2,535
138
61
254
1,237
182
4,978
96.8%
95.0%
96.6%
97.0%
96.3%
93.7%
97.5%
96.2%
3
6
4
2
5
7
1
0.1
-1.0
0.4
0.3
0.2
-0.9
0.1
4
7
1
2
3
6
4
1. Do wnto wn San Francisco
2. So M a
3. West San Francisco
4. No rth San M ateo Co unty
5. Central San M ateo Co unty
-0.1
6. So uth San M ateo Co unty
7. M arin Co unty
BAY AREA | 28
1 SAN FRANCISCO: DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
83,691
5,990
7.2%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
475
747
0.9%
214
747
0
‐74
499
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
96.7%
‐0.8
‐0.4
98.6%
95.5%
97.0%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$3,190
$4.680
2.1%
14.3%
16.8%
‐0.3%
8.8%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1.3%
13.9%
18.1%
‐0.4%
9.1%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
492
571
96.8%
0.1
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
2.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
Annual
1.5k
1.0k
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
20%
Submarket
Metro
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 29
1 SAN FRANCISCO: DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
1
1
1
1
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
St. Anthony
121 Golden Gate Av e, San Francisco, CA 94102
Avalon Hayes Valley
325 Octav ia St, San Francisco, CA 94102
100 Van Ness
100 Van Ness Av e, San Francisco, CA 94102
Broadway Sansome
255 Broadway, San Francisco, CA 94111
Developer
Mercy Housing/St. Anthony
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Senior
90
10
09/12 09/14
Av alonBay Communities Inc
Conv entional
182
5
09/13 12/14
Emerald Fund
Conv entional
400
29
02/13 01/15
Affordable
75
7
04/13 01/15
Foundation
Chinatown Community
Dev elopment Center
Total Units: 747
Sub#
1
1
1
Properties Under Construction
101 Polk Street
101 Polk St, San Francisco, CA 94102
Alta Laguna
55 Laguna St, San Francisco, CA 94102
55 Laguna
Laguna St & Hermann St, San Francisco, CA 94102
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Emerald Fund
Conv entional
162
13
04/14 11/15
Wood Partners
Conv entional
330
5
10/13 12/15
Mercy Housing/Openhouse
Senior
110
3
01/15 07/16
Total Units: 602
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94102, 94104, 94108, 94109, 94111, 94115, 94123, 94130, 94133
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 30
1 SAN FRANCISCO: DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.4%
96.7%
96.2%
96.7%
95.6%
97.2%
97.1%
96.5%
96.4%
96.0%
95.7%
96.0%
96.6%
2Q 13
96.8%
96.8%
96.4%
97.5%
97.6%
99.4%
95.3%
96.7%
98.5%
97.2%
98.1%
97.0%
96.7%
3Q 13
97.3%
97.3%
96.9%
97.5%
98.6%
97.1%
95.5%
96.7%
99.2%
98.0%
97.9%
97.1%
97.2%
4Q 13
96.8%
96.8%
96.7%
96.9%
97.9%
97.8%
96.9%
97.9%
99.0%
96.0%
99.4%
96.4%
96.8%
1Q 14
97.1%
97.3%
97.2%
96.5%
98.2%
98.3%
96.3%
96.6%
100.0%
97.2%
94.0%
97.9%
97.1%
2Q 14
96.8%
96.5%
97.2%
96.5%
96.4%
98.5%
95.5%
96.5%
99.1%
97.1%
96.6%
97.6%
96.7%
3Q 14
97.8%
97.0%
98.1%
97.7%
98.6%
98.5%
95.5%
97.5%
100.0%
98.6%
94.5%
98.8%
97.8%
4Q 14
97.5%
97.9%
97.4%
97.2%
97.7%
95.8%
96.5%
96.5%
96.6%
98.6%
96.2%
98.7%
97.2%
1Q 15
96.7%
97.3%
96.9%
95.7%
98.1%
95.8%
95.0%
97.2%
90.4%
97.9%
94.9%
98.9%
96.2%
1Q 13
$2,758
$2,052
$2,417
$3,764
$4,290
$3,607
$2,698 $2,189 $3,384
$2,872
$939
$2,184
$2,973
2Q 13
$2,911
$2,172
$2,596
$3,869
$4,234
$3,692
$2,993 $2,254 $3,857
$2,949
$1,453
$2,316
$3,160
3Q 13
$2,982
$2,141
$2,556
$4,238
$3,986
$3,346
$3,034 $2,358 $4,069
$3,015
$1,732
$2,358
$3,229
4Q 13
$2,961
$2,252
$2,587
$3,995
$4,395
$3,946
$3,303 $2,374 $4,060
$2,846
$1,759
$2,184
$3,267
1Q 14
$2,887
$2,382
$2,423
$3,923
$3,848
$3,734
$2,813 $2,432 $3,361
$3,005
$1,032
$2,324
$3,109
2Q 14
$2,917
$2,221
$2,565
$3,951
$3,785
$3,566
$3,080 $2,384 $3,202
$2,974
$1,730
$2,329
$3,163
3Q 14
$3,030
$2,420
$2,663
$4,089
$3,843
$3,598
$3,191 $2,552 $3,202
$3,078
$1,703
$2,304
$3,340
4Q 14
$3,234
$2,662
$2,832
$4,294
$4,032
$3,931
$3,146 $2,611 $4,255
$3,391
$1,625
$2,530
$3,512
1Q 15
$3,190
$2,598
$2,907
$4,250
$3,565
$4,034
$3,267 $2,627 $2,051
$3,429
$1,324
$2,763
$3,388
1Q 13
$3.908
$4.470
$3.937
$3.796
$3.172
$4.019
$3.611 $3.376 $3.559
$4.365
$0.945
$4.081
$4.011
2Q 13
$4.104
$4.719
$4.205
$3.949
$3.212
$4.114
$4.007 $3.592 $3.624
$4.482
$1.602
$4.326
$4.234
3Q 13
$4.186
$4.636
$4.133
$4.342
$3.125
$3.934
$4.001 $3.758 $3.823
$4.573
$1.918
$4.404
$4.308
4Q 13
$4.223
$4.869
$4.212
$4.162
$3.355
$4.398
$4.420 $3.783 $3.730
$4.405
$1.941
$4.079
$4.453
1Q 14
$4.031
$5.041
$3.959
$4.002
$2.976
$4.161
$3.706 $3.750 $3.522
$4.450
$1.112
$4.115
$4.192
2Q 14
$4.122
$4.768
$4.180
$4.115
$2.995
$4.192
$4.058 $3.676 $3.481
$4.525
$1.960
$4.224
$4.312
3Q 14
$4.319
$5.256
$4.339
$4.255
$3.041
$4.504
$4.205 $3.936 $3.480
$4.762
$1.930
$4.308
$4.552
4Q 14
$4.552
$5.718
$4.574
$4.435
$3.181
$4.747
$4.148 $4.026 $3.638
$5.205
$1.791
$4.618
$4.734
1Q 15
$4.680
$5.585
$4.739
$4.498
$2.984
$4.873
$4.308 $4.051 $3.592
$5.229
$1.344
$4.978
$4.816
1Q 13
-0.3%
-0.7%
-1.4%
3.4%
-8.1%
8.7%
11.0%
1.7%
2.5%
-8.7%
n.a.
2.3%
-0.7%
2Q 13
5.1%
9.6%
7.0%
-0.1%
12.5%
4.8%
-5.7%
10.1%
1.3%
5.2%
n.a.
15.6%
3.6%
3Q 13
6.7%
-0.2%
4.8%
11.0%
13.9%
3.7%
14.5%
7.2%
3.0%
7.5%
21.5%
9.0%
5.9%
4Q 13
6.3%
7.9%
3.7%
8.9%
4.0%
13.8%
23.3%
4.6%
13.7%
-2.0%
14.2%
-1.3%
7.5%
1Q 14
6.1%
10.4%
2.8%
7.6%
7.6%
3.5%
13.1%
11.1%
7.1%
1.5%
1.3%
-0.1%
7.3%
2Q 14
4.3%
-0.5%
4.3%
6.8%
4.4%
5.5%
11.3%
2.8%
8.1%
0.8%
11.1%
-2.5%
5.5%
3Q 14
5.6%
14.4%
9.3%
-1.1%
-0.7%
12.6%
8.0%
5.7%
2.0%
4.5%
-2.4%
-1.6%
7.3%
4Q 14
10.1%
13.6%
11.1%
8.2%
4.3%
7.9%
0.8%
7.1%
-0.1%
18.3%
2.4%
12.5%
9.8%
1Q 15
14.3%
11.1%
19.6%
11.3%
-0.2%
15.4%
13.1%
8.0%
10.9%
17.3%
17.1%
20.8%
12.9%
1Q 13
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.9%
2.3%
-12.5%
5.9%
10.3%
3.6%
-1.1%
-6.4%
n.a.
2.5%
-0.6%
2Q 13
4.2%
8.9%
5.2%
-0.2%
15.9%
9.2%
-9.0%
9.7%
5.0%
4.3%
n.a.
14.3%
2.8%
3Q 13
7.0%
0.3%
4.4%
11.7%
16.0%
3.0%
14.4%
7.5%
3.2%
8.0%
28.2%
8.8%
5.9%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
7.6%
9.6%
4.7%
10.4%
6.2%
11.6%
24.1%
6.8%
18.4%
-0.9%
19.0%
1.6%
8.3%
REVENUE
1Q 14
6.8%
11.0%
3.8%
7.4%
10.2%
4.6%
12.3%
11.2%
10.7%
2.7%
-0.4%
1.8%
7.8%
CHANGE
2Q 14
4.3%
-0.8%
5.1%
5.8%
3.2%
4.6%
11.5%
2.6%
8.7%
0.7%
9.6%
-1.9%
5.5%
3Q 14
6.1%
14.1%
10.5%
-0.9%
-0.7%
14.0%
8.0%
6.5%
2.8%
5.1%
-5.8%
0.1%
7.9%
4Q 14
10.8%
14.7%
11.8%
8.5%
4.1%
5.9%
0.4%
5.7%
-2.5%
20.9%
-0.8%
14.8%
10.2%
1Q 15
13.9%
11.1%
19.3%
10.5%
-0.3%
12.9%
11.8%
8.6%
1.3%
18.0%
18.0%
21.8%
12.0%
SUPPLY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
606
22
0.0%
0.1%
1Q 13
82,461
6,196
7.5%
712
(292)
0.3%
0.5%
2Q 13
82,743
6,089
7.4%
470
355
629
0.1%
0.6%
3Q 13
82,831
6,257
7.6%
0
370
(286)
1,381
0.0%
0.4%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
82,831
6,008
7.3%
113
483
221
1,016
0.1%
0.6%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
82,944
6,189
7.5%
0
201
(141)
176
0.0%
0.2%
2Q 14
82,944
6,365
7.7%
3Q 14
90
203
809
622
0.1%
0.2%
3Q 14
83,034
6,475
7.8%
4Q 14
182
385
(92)
787
0.2%
0.5%
4Q 14
83,216
5,990
7.2%
1Q 15
475
747
(74)
499
0.6%
0.9%
1Q 15
83,691
5,990
7.2%
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
0
100
2Q 13
282
382
3Q 13
88
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 14
© 2015 MPF Research
CHANGE
BAY AREA | 31
2 SAN FRANCISCO: SOMA
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
1.5k
Annual Rent Change
Occupancy
1.0k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.5k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
2.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
3k
SUBMARKET
30,473
6,754
22.2%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
0
1,715
6.0%
815
1,798
0
307
1,765
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
2k
1k
0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
96.0%
0.6
‐0.8
98.3%
93.7%
96.5%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$3,677
$4.681
‐0.6%
8.5%
21.7%
‐4.3%
7.1%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
-1k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
98%
96%
94%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.0%
7.7%
23.1%
‐5.1%
7.2%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
3,009
2,535
95.0%
‐1.0
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
92%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change
12%
Submarket
Metro
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 32
2 SAN FRANCISCO: SOMA
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Channel Mission Bay
2
185 Channel St, San Francisco, CA 94158
Candlestick Heights II *
2
859 Jamestown Av e, San Francisco, CA 94124
Wilson (The)
2
973 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94103
1180 4th Street
2
1180 4th St, San Francisco, CA 94158
AVA at 55 Ninth
2
55 9th St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Mosso I
2
900 Folsom St, San Francisco, CA 94107
Gantry (The)
2
2121 3rd St, San Francisco, CA 94107
Mosso II
2
400 Clementina St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
UDR Inc
Conv entional
315
7
10/11 04/14
L+M Dev elopment Partners Inc
Affordable
111
3
01/13 05/14
Raintree Partners
Conv entional
67
7
05/13 05/14
Mercy Housing
Affordable
99
6
08/12 06/14
Av alonBay Communities Inc
Conv entional
273
16
09/12 07/14
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
463
9
08/12 07/14
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
105
6
12/12 08/14
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
282
9
06/13 12/14
Total Units: 1,715
Sub#
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Properties Under Construction
Trinity Place III
1188 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Azure at Mission Bay
690 Long Bridge St, San Francisco, CA 94158
Panoramic (The)
1321 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103
1400 Mission
1400 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103
MB360 I
701 China Basin, San Francisco, CA 94158
299 Fremont
299 Fremont St, San Francisco, CA 94105
Block N4P3 *
360 Berry St, San Francisco, CA 94158
Hunters View II
112 Middle Point Rd, San Francisco, CA 94124
Pacific Pointe at the Shipyard
350 Friedell St, San Francisco, CA 94124
Dr George W Davis Senior
5800 3rd St, San Francisco, CA 94124
Nema
1401 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94103
399 Fremont
399 Fremont St, San Francisco, CA 94105
480 Potrero Avenue
480 Potrero Av e, San Francisco, CA 94110
350 8th
350 8th St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Potrero
1000 16th St, San Francisco, CA 94107
Transbay Block 9
Folsom St & Essex St, San Francisco, CA 94105
MB360 II
701 China Basin St, San Francisco, CA 94158
1201 Tennessee Street
1201 Tennessee St, San Francisco, CA 94107
340 Fremont
340 Fremont St, San Francisco, CA 94105
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Trinity Management Serv ices
Conv entional
545
22
03/13 06/15
Equity Residential
Conv entional
273
16
03/13 07/15
Panoramic Interests
Student
160
11
12/13 07/15
Affordable
193
15
08/13 08/15
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
188
5
05/14 08/15
Golub & Company LLC
Conv entional
479
32
11/13 10/15
Mission Bay Dev elopment Group
Conv entional
129
5
09/14 01/16
The John Stewart Company
Affordable
107
5
09/14 02/16
AMCAL Multi-Housing Inc
Affordable
60
5
11/14 02/16
McCormack Baron Salazar
Senior
121
5
03/14 03/16
Crescent Heights
Conv entional
754
37
03/12 03/16
UDR Inc/MetLife
Conv entional
452
42
01/14 04/16
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
77
6
08/14 04/16
Conv entional
410
6
03/14 05/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
453
6
04/14 05/16
Av ant Housing LLC/BRIDGE Housing
Conv entional
563
41
06/14 06/16
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
172
9
05/13 07/16
AGI Av ant
Conv entional
258
6
02/15 09/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
348
40
04/14 09/16
Maracor/Tenderloin Neighborhood
Dev elopment Corp
Associated Estates/American
International Group Inc
* Originally planned or started as a for-sale condominium property but switched to rental during construction.
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 33
2 SAN FRANCISCO: SOMA
1Q 2015
SUPPLY AND DETAILS MAP
Sub#
2
2
Properties Under Construction
41 Tehama
41 Tehama St, San Francisco, CA 94105
One Henry Adams
1 Henry Adams St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Hines
Conv entional
418
35
01/15 10/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
241
6
01/15 12/16
Total Units: 6,401
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94103, 94105, 94107, 94110, 94124, 94134, 94158
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 34
2 SAN FRANCISCO: SOMA
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
93.7%
90.9%
94.1%
94.0%
96.4%
91.2%
97.3%
96.6%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
98.9%
91.7%
2Q 13
96.6%
95.8%
96.3%
97.5%
96.4%
95.4%
96.9%
98.2%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
98.6%
95.9%
3Q 13
96.6%
97.9%
96.3%
96.6%
100.0%
96.0%
97.9%
97.1%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
97.7%
96.2%
4Q 13
95.8%
97.1%
95.3%
96.2%
96.4%
95.9%
95.3%
95.8%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
97.9%
94.9%
1Q 14
96.8%
96.9%
96.8%
96.6%
92.9%
96.4%
96.1%
97.4%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
98.1%
96.3%
2Q 14
95.2%
95.4%
94.8%
95.6%
97.9%
93.9%
96.9%
97.0%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
97.7%
94.0%
3Q 14
98.3%
98.6%
98.3%
98.2%
97.9%
98.5%
97.4%
98.2%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
98.7%
98.2%
4Q 14
95.4%
94.2%
96.3%
94.1%
97.9%
94.7%
94.6%
97.0%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
97.9%
94.5%
1Q 15
96.0%
94.0%
97.1%
95.0%
100.0%
95.6%
97.9%
96.7%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
98.5%
95.2%
1Q 13
$3,200
$2,311
$2,915
$4,154
$4,611
$3,257
$3,594 $3,079
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$2,720
$3,379
2Q 13
$3,305
$2,208
$3,012
$4,369
$4,571
$3,285
$3,351 $3,325
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$2,822
$3,469
3Q 13
$3,318
$2,362
$3,168
$4,042
$5,157
$3,287
$3,654 $3,291
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$2,795
$3,519
4Q 13
$3,286
$2,479
$2,977
$4,272
$5,063
$3,197
$3,213 $3,386
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$2,893
$3,461
1Q 14
$3,408
$2,596
$3,092
$4,346
$5,210
$3,389
$3,392 $3,440
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$2,871
$3,591
2Q 14
$3,482
$2,691
$3,124
$4,517
$5,147
$3,454
$3,587 $3,510
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$3,061
$3,667
3Q 14
$3,545
$2,733
$3,200
$4,540
$5,263
$3,519
$3,934 $3,517
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$3,164
$3,705
4Q 14
$3,701
$2,791
$3,417
$4,594
$5,105
$3,758
$3,561 $3,603
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$3,271
$3,855
1Q 15
$3,677
$2,974
$3,321
$4,618
$4,912
$3,701
$3,752 $3,611
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$3,363
$3,790
1Q 13
$4.133
$4.893
$4.317
$3.774
$3.386
$4.036
$3.309 $4.429
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.198
$4.114
2Q 13
$4.235
$4.677
$4.399
$3.962
$3.357
$4.027
$3.486 $4.782
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.356
$4.202
3Q 13
$4.334
$5.154
$4.685
$3.721
$3.788
$4.146
$3.802 $4.733
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.315
$4.340
4Q 13
$4.364
$5.409
$4.466
$4.027
$3.719
$4.156
$3.342 $4.855
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.466
$4.327
1Q 14
$4.362
$5.501
$4.518
$3.970
$3.826
$4.153
$3.528 $4.932
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.432
$4.344
2Q 14
$4.485
$5.594
$4.562
$4.178
$3.907
$4.309
$3.731 $5.033
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.531
$4.469
3Q 14
$4.536
$5.681
$4.650
$4.183
$3.995
$4.350
$4.093 $5.043
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.684
$4.485
4Q 14
$4.711
$5.692
$4.949
$4.257
$3.874
$4.636
$3.704 $5.167
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.841
$4.673
1Q 15
$4.681
$6.065
$4.808
$4.279
$3.728
$4.566
$3.903 $5.178
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
$4.977
$4.594
1Q 13
2.8%
3.1%
0.5%
6.5%
-12.2%
2.0%
-7.0%
5.2%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
8.5%
1.0%
2Q 13
4.6%
9.0%
3.2%
5.6%
22.3%
0.9%
4.9%
7.7%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
3.2%
5.2%
3Q 13
4.2%
7.2%
8.9%
-3.6%
5.3%
1.0%
2.3%
8.3%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4.3%
4.2%
4Q 13
6.2%
5.5%
5.8%
7.2%
-15.3%
7.5%
-2.9%
7.5%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
5.6%
6.6%
1Q 14
6.6%
12.6%
6.0%
5.9%
13.0%
3.7%
-0.3%
11.7%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
5.6%
6.9%
2Q 14
6.8%
24.8%
5.4%
4.2%
20.4%
7.7%
7.1%
5.6%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
9.3%
6.1%
3Q 14
7.8%
18.1%
1.9%
14.7%
7.4%
8.7%
7.7%
6.9%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
15.1%
5.6%
4Q 14
10.0%
14.8%
13.4%
4.0%
6.4%
13.8%
10.8%
6.4%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
16.9%
7.4%
1Q 15
8.5%
16.9%
8.6%
6.8%
-13.1%
10.8%
10.6%
5.0%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
19.4%
5.6%
1Q 13
-0.6%
-3.7%
-2.2%
3.2%
-15.8%
-3.9%
-5.0%
4.7%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
8.1%
-3.5%
2Q 13
4.2%
6.6%
3.1%
5.4%
18.7%
0.5%
4.6%
8.9%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
3.8%
4.6%
3Q 13
3.3%
7.0%
8.1%
-5.1%
5.3%
-0.3%
3.0%
7.6%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4.0%
3.1%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
5.0%
5.1%
4.3%
6.3%
-18.9%
6.1%
-4.0%
6.4%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
5.5%
5.1%
REVENUE
1Q 14
9.7%
18.6%
8.7%
8.5%
9.5%
8.9%
-1.5%
12.5%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4.8%
11.5%
CHANGE
2Q 14
5.4%
24.4%
3.9%
2.3%
21.9%
6.2%
7.1%
4.4%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
8.4%
4.2%
3Q 14
9.5%
18.8%
3.9%
16.3%
5.3%
11.2%
7.2%
8.0%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
16.1%
7.6%
4Q 14
9.6%
11.9%
14.4%
1.9%
7.9%
12.6%
10.1%
7.6%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
16.9%
7.0%
1Q 15
7.7%
14.0%
8.9%
5.2%
-6.0%
10.0%
12.4%
4.3%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
19.8%
4.5%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
326
611
(732)
(462)
1.2%
2.3%
1Q 13
27,660
4,904
17.7%
2Q 13
107
718
1,020
612
0.4%
2.7%
2Q 13
27,767
5,256
18.9%
3Q 13
680
1,202
572
887
2.4%
4.4%
3Q 13
28,447
4,804
16.9%
4Q 13
228
1,341
(12)
894
0.8%
4.9%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
28,675
4,318
15.1%
1Q 14
83
1,098
235
1,875
0.3%
4.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
28,758
5,256
18.3%
2Q 14
592
1,583
138
1,030
2.1%
5.7%
2Q 14
29,350
5,826
19.9%
3Q 14
841
1,744
1,647
2,158
2.9%
6.1%
3Q 14
30,191
6,018
19.9%
4Q 14
282
1,798
(684)
1,403
0.9%
6.3%
4Q 14
30,473
6,754
22.2%
1Q 15
0
1,715
307
1,765
0.0%
6.0%
1Q 15
30,473
6,754
22.2%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 35
3 SAN FRANCISCO: WEST SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
SUBMARKET
37,567
5,062
13.5%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
45
133
0.4%
111
311
0
‐303
‐83
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
96.2%
‐1.8
‐0.6
98.0%
90.8%
95.5%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$3,055
$3.171
2.6%
11.6%
28.7%
‐17.0%
6.1%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
Quarterly
2.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
0.8%
11.0%
32.3%
‐15.1%
7.2%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
0
138
96.6%
0.4
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
Annual
1.5k
1.0k
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
15%
Submarket
Metro
10%
5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 36
3 SAN FRANCISCO: WEST SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
3
3
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
2175 Market
2175 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94114
1100 Ocean Avenue
1100 Ocean Av e, San Francisco, CA 94112
Developer
Forest City Enterprises
Mercy Housing/Bernal Heights
Neighborhood Center
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
88
6
07/13 10/14
Affordable
45
5
09/13 01/15
Total Units: 133
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94112, 94114, 94116, 94117, 94118, 94121, 94122, 94127, 94129, 94131, 94132
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 37
3 SAN FRANCISCO: WEST SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.6%
96.9%
96.1%
96.5%
97.9%
95.0%
n.a.
100.0%
98.2%
96.1%
97.6%
96.7%
96.3%
2Q 13
97.5%
96.6%
96.4%
98.1%
99.1%
96.9%
n.a.
100.0%
97.5%
97.4%
98.8%
98.0%
97.1%
3Q 13
96.1%
96.6%
95.8%
96.0%
96.9%
98.8%
n.a.
100.0%
97.4%
95.4%
97.7%
99.2%
95.5%
4Q 13
97.4%
96.3%
97.5%
97.0%
98.5%
98.8%
n.a.
100.0%
97.1%
97.3%
97.9%
99.2%
97.1%
1Q 14
96.8%
93.7%
96.6%
97.3%
97.6%
96.8%
n.a.
97.6%
95.8%
97.2%
97.9%
97.0%
96.5%
2Q 14
97.3%
95.8%
96.3%
98.2%
98.5%
100.0%
n.a.
100.0%
96.5%
97.3%
98.5%
100.0%
96.8%
3Q 14
97.4%
96.3%
97.2%
97.5%
98.1%
99.4%
n.a.
100.0%
97.2%
97.2%
99.1%
99.5%
96.7%
4Q 14
98.0%
98.2%
98.5%
97.3%
98.5%
98.1%
n.a.
100.0%
98.8%
97.7%
98.8%
98.5%
97.7%
1Q 15
96.2%
96.7%
96.1%
96.0%
97.3%
99.0%
n.a.
100.0%
99.0%
95.5%
98.5%
99.2%
95.1%
1Q 13
$2,437
$1,689
$2,202
$2,568
$3,033
$4,052
n.a.
$1,943 $1,730
$2,588
$2,178
$3,323
$2,446
2Q 13
$2,631
$1,707
$2,253
$2,902
$3,242
$3,786
n.a.
$1,947 $1,950
$2,822
$2,510
$3,151
$2,633
3Q 13
$2,570
$1,821
$2,207
$2,802
$3,204
$3,986
n.a.
$2,029 $1,944
$2,731
$2,417
$3,310
$2,569
4Q 13
$2,642
$1,718
$2,329
$2,873
$3,200
$3,885
n.a.
$1,997 $2,010
$2,813
$2,358
$3,232
$2,683
1Q 14
$2,639
$1,619
$2,275
$2,939
$3,255
$2,483
n.a.
$1,997 $1,988
$2,877
$2,376
$2,379
$2,734
2Q 14
$2,650
$1,580
$2,283
$2,937
$3,356
$2,482
n.a.
$1,994 $2,049
$2,874
$2,601
$2,378
$2,689
3Q 14
$2,758
$1,726
$2,396
$3,022
$3,507
$2,582
n.a.
$2,000 $2,140
$2,989
$2,673
$2,457
$2,808
4Q 14
$2,879
$1,800
$2,535
$3,162
$3,523
$2,565
n.a.
$2,069 $2,190
$3,145
$2,741
$2,459
$2,954
1Q 15
$3,055
$1,545
$2,700
$3,236
$3,618
$2,647
n.a.
$1,997 $2,225
$3,233
$2,716
$2,507
$3,226
1Q 13
$2.602
$3.348
$3.006
$2.404
$2.365
$4.239
n.a.
$2.764 $2.150
$2.643
$2.227
$3.827
$2.626
2Q 13
$2.820
$3.384
$3.097
$2.720
$2.529
$3.961
n.a.
$2.770 $2.425
$2.882
$2.631
$3.628
$2.828
3Q 13
$2.755
$3.608
$3.034
$2.626
$2.499
$4.170
n.a.
$2.888 $2.418
$2.789
$2.534
$3.812
$2.759
4Q 13
$2.831
$3.405
$3.201
$2.693
$2.496
$4.064
n.a.
$2.842 $2.500
$2.872
$2.472
$3.722
$2.881
1Q 14
$2.849
$3.163
$3.134
$2.760
$2.539
$3.036
n.a.
$2.842 $2.472
$2.939
$2.491
$2.999
$2.935
2Q 14
$2.861
$3.087
$3.145
$2.758
$2.618
$3.035
n.a.
$2.837 $2.549
$2.935
$2.727
$2.997
$2.887
3Q 14
$2.977
$3.372
$3.300
$2.838
$2.736
$3.156
n.a.
$2.846 $2.662
$3.052
$2.802
$3.097
$3.016
4Q 14
$3.108
$3.518
$3.492
$2.969
$2.748
$3.136
n.a.
$2.944 $2.724
$3.212
$2.873
$3.099
$3.173
1Q 15
$3.171
$2.998
$3.682
$3.033
$2.822
$3.236
n.a.
$2.842 $2.294
$3.302
$2.847
$3.161
$3.273
1Q 13
11.5%
12.6%
11.2%
9.8%
17.1%
19.0%
n.a.
1.1%
6.1%
12.3%
11.3%
14.9%
11.2%
2Q 13
12.7%
13.3%
7.8%
14.1%
18.3%
-3.1%
n.a.
-8.6%
8.0%
15.2%
17.3%
-4.3%
13.2%
3Q 13
8.2%
16.3%
4.4%
8.4%
14.5%
3.3%
n.a.
3.8%
5.1%
9.3%
7.5%
3.4%
8.8%
4Q 13
6.5%
11.2%
3.1%
8.9%
5.7%
-2.6%
n.a.
2.8%
8.7%
6.6%
-0.9%
-1.5%
9.1%
1Q 14
9.8%
6.4%
4.6%
14.9%
6.3%
2.1%
n.a.
2.8%
5.9%
11.2%
3.3%
2.2%
11.8%
2Q 14
2.7%
2.4%
3.3%
2.1%
3.5%
9.0%
n.a.
2.4%
5.1%
1.8%
3.6%
7.6%
2.1%
3Q 14
9.4%
5.7%
10.7%
8.8%
9.5%
8.5%
n.a.
-1.4%
10.1%
9.5%
10.6%
6.4%
9.3%
4Q 14
11.2%
18.3%
11.0%
11.1%
10.1%
11.2%
n.a.
3.6%
9.0%
11.8%
16.2%
9.6%
10.1%
1Q 15
11.6%
8.8%
14.7%
10.1%
11.1%
6.6%
n.a.
0.0%
9.7%
12.4%
14.3%
5.4%
11.5%
1Q 13
13.3%
11.5%
12.8%
11.9%
19.2%
24.6%
n.a.
1.1%
8.3%
13.9%
11.8%
18.5%
13.2%
2Q 13
14.8%
14.0%
9.2%
17.3%
19.7%
-3.1%
n.a.
-8.6%
8.7%
17.8%
17.0%
-4.3%
15.9%
3Q 13
7.4%
15.7%
4.4%
7.2%
12.4%
11.4%
n.a.
3.8%
5.5%
7.7%
7.4%
8.7%
7.5%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
8.2%
8.4%
4.8%
10.7%
8.3%
-0.1%
n.a.
2.8%
8.1%
9.0%
1.8%
0.1%
10.5%
REVENUE
1Q 14
10.0%
3.2%
5.1%
15.7%
6.0%
3.9%
n.a.
0.4%
3.5%
12.3%
3.6%
2.5%
12.0%
CHANGE
2Q 14
2.5%
1.6%
3.2%
2.2%
2.9%
12.1%
n.a.
2.4%
4.1%
1.7%
3.3%
9.6%
1.8%
3Q 14
10.7%
5.4%
12.1%
10.3%
10.7%
9.1%
n.a.
-1.4%
9.9%
11.3%
12.0%
6.7%
10.5%
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
4Q 14
11.8%
20.2%
12.0%
11.4%
10.1%
10.5%
n.a.
3.6%
10.7%
12.2%
17.1%
8.9%
10.7%
1Q 15
11.0%
11.8%
14.2%
8.8%
10.8%
8.8%
n.a.
2.4%
12.9%
10.7%
14.9%
7.6%
10.1%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
14.6%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
0
173
244
552
0.0%
0.5%
1Q 13
37,419
5,479
2Q 13
0
173
394
1,013
0.0%
0.5%
2Q 13
37,419
5,633
15.1%
3Q 13
0
0
(606)
(317)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
37,419
5,633
15.1%
4Q 13
15
15
575
585
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
37,434
5,633
15.0%
1Q 14
0
15
(260)
119
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
37,434
5,783
15.4%
2Q 14
0
15
255
(42)
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
37,434
5,783
15.4%
3Q 14
0
15
12
490
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 14
37,434
5,783
15.4%
4Q 14
88
88
280
281
0.2%
0.2%
4Q 14
37,522
5,783
15.4%
1Q 15
45
133
(303)
(83)
0.1%
0.4%
1Q 15
37,567
5,062
13.5%
© 2015 MPF Research
Ann
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
Period
BAY AREA | 38
4 SAN FRANCISCO: NORTH SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET
18,875
7,440
39.4%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
0
54
0.3%
118
469
0
314
491
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
96.7%
1.1
1.9
96.7%
93.3%
95.2%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$2,282
$3.158
0.4%
12.1%
18.1%
1.7%
8.4%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
98%
96%
94%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1.5%
14.0%
18.2%
1.1%
8.9%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
20%
Submarket
Metro
15%
10%
5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
92%
0
61
97.0%
0.3
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 39
4 SAN FRANCISCO: NORTH SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
4
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Pinedera
120 S El Camino Real, Millbrae, CA 94030
Developer
Pinewav e Dev elopment Group Inc
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
54
4
11/12 09/14
Total Units: 54
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94005, 94014, 94015, 94030, 94044, 94066, 94080, 94128
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 40
4 SAN FRANCISCO: NORTH SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
93.3%
95.3%
92.9%
93.9%
95.8%
94.4%
n.a.
97.2%
94.4%
91.6%
92.8%
95.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
94.1%
96.9%
93.7%
94.6%
95.8%
97.0%
n.a.
97.5%
97.2%
90.8%
93.2%
97.5%
n.a.
3Q 13
94.4%
99.0%
94.0%
94.6%
96.7%
96.5%
n.a.
95.8%
96.3%
92.4%
93.9%
97.3%
n.a.
4Q 13
94.7%
98.9%
94.3%
94.9%
97.9%
97.5%
n.a.
96.2%
96.4%
92.3%
93.8%
97.8%
n.a.
1Q 14
94.8%
97.4%
94.5%
95.1%
97.9%
97.4%
n.a.
95.8%
96.4%
92.6%
94.0%
97.8%
n.a.
2Q 14
94.9%
99.0%
94.5%
95.3%
96.2%
98.0%
n.a.
93.1%
97.6%
92.8%
94.2%
98.1%
n.a.
3Q 14
95.3%
98.4%
94.8%
95.8%
97.4%
97.7%
n.a.
96.2%
97.5%
92.9%
94.6%
98.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
95.6%
96.3%
95.4%
95.8%
98.7%
97.1%
n.a.
97.4%
96.9%
93.7%
95.1%
97.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
96.7%
98.4%
96.4%
97.0%
98.7%
98.1%
n.a.
98.2%
98.7%
94.6%
96.3%
98.1%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,935
$1,554
$1,751
$2,298
$2,956
$2,433
n.a.
$1,804 $1,837
$1,861
$1,856
$2,279
n.a.
2Q 13
$2,062
$1,485
$1,897
$2,407
$2,927
$2,441
n.a.
$1,888 $1,872
$2,058
$1,994
$2,318
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,921
$1,596
$1,778
$2,231
$2,295
$2,193
n.a.
$2,054 $1,918
$1,824
$1,892
$2,092
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,988
$1,595
$1,802
$2,363
$2,954
$2,285
n.a.
$2,093 $1,910
$1,882
$1,931
$2,199
n.a.
1Q 14
$2,036
$1,730
$1,854
$2,381
$3,123
$2,503
n.a.
$2,119 $2,008
$1,850
$1,947
$2,379
n.a.
2Q 14
$2,114
$1,771
$1,923
$2,472
$2,978
$2,550
n.a.
$2,148 $2,079
$1,964
$2,031
$2,469
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,168
$1,779
$1,963
$2,561
$2,870
$2,476
n.a.
$2,146 $2,201
$2,043
$2,113
$2,388
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,269
$1,905
$2,072
$2,646
$2,971
$2,464
n.a.
$2,277 $2,269
$2,195
$2,237
$2,395
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,282
$1,889
$2,073
$2,685
$2,911
$2,483
n.a.
$2,361 $2,247
$2,204
$2,249
$2,415
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.677
$3.448
$2.760
$2.541
$2.421
$2.761
n.a.
$2.415 $2.466
$2.832
$2.664
$2.728
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.857
$3.301
$2.992
$2.671
$2.397
$2.864
n.a.
$2.529 $2.512
$3.132
$2.864
$2.833
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.706
$3.546
$2.824
$2.517
$1.907
$2.619
n.a.
$2.807 $2.574
$2.776
$2.718
$2.645
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.770
$3.538
$2.857
$2.629
$2.419
$2.681
n.a.
$2.860 $2.616
$2.863
$2.796
$2.688
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.829
$3.846
$2.936
$2.655
$2.557
$2.937
n.a.
$2.896 $2.694
$2.837
$2.806
$2.907
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.925
$3.935
$3.035
$2.753
$2.621
$2.993
n.a.
$2.933 $2.770
$2.989
$2.906
$2.995
n.a.
3Q 14
$3.000
$3.954
$3.099
$2.852
$2.526
$2.906
n.a.
$2.933 $2.932
$3.110
$3.024
$2.919
n.a.
4Q 14
$3.133
$4.226
$3.262
$2.940
$2.615
$2.892
n.a.
$3.112 $3.010
$3.328
$3.194
$2.927
n.a.
1Q 15
$3.158
$4.197
$3.272
$2.990
$2.562
$2.914
n.a.
$3.227 $2.994
$3.355
$3.218
$2.951
n.a.
1Q 13
8.7%
13.7%
11.4%
4.4%
11.2%
-1.3%
n.a.
5.5%
8.1%
14.3%
11.9%
-0.9%
n.a.
2Q 13
9.7%
-2.8%
11.0%
8.5%
5.3%
5.1%
n.a.
8.3%
2.0%
15.7%
11.6%
4.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.3%
16.3%
2.4%
1.6%
-17.4%
4.2%
n.a.
11.1%
7.2%
-2.5%
1.9%
4.1%
n.a.
4Q 13
1.7%
3.5%
0.5%
3.5%
-1.7%
-2.6%
n.a.
13.5%
3.8%
0.4%
2.8%
-1.6%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
5.8%
11.6%
6.4%
4.5%
5.6%
12.4%
n.a.
12.6%
9.3%
-0.3%
4.1%
11.5%
2Q 14
2.0%
19.2%
1.0%
2.5%
7.8%
4.5%
n.a.
9.2%
11.2%
-4.6%
1.1%
5.2%
n.a.
3Q 14
10.7%
11.5%
8.9%
13.0%
39.3%
3.8%
n.a.
4.5%
15.3%
12.0%
11.7%
5.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
14.0%
19.4%
15.0%
12.3%
13.7%
7.8%
n.a.
8.8%
17.7%
17.0%
15.6%
8.9%
n.a.
1Q 15
12.1%
9.1%
11.8%
13.0%
1.7%
-0.8%
n.a.
11.4%
12.2%
19.0%
15.5%
1.5%
n.a.
1Q 13
6.1%
14.2%
8.2%
2.6%
9.1%
-3.0%
n.a.
5.8%
5.8%
10.6%
8.9%
-2.2%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
8.1%
-1.7%
9.1%
7.2%
5.3%
7.0%
n.a.
8.3%
2.7%
11.3%
9.0%
6.4%
3Q 13
2.3%
23.7%
1.9%
1.3%
-4.0%
4.9%
n.a.
9.9%
8.2%
-3.1%
1.8%
5.4%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
1.1%
8.2%
-0.4%
2.9%
0.4%
-0.2%
n.a.
11.9%
5.3%
-2.3%
1.4%
0.7%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
7.3%
13.7%
8.0%
5.7%
7.7%
15.4%
n.a.
11.2%
11.3%
0.7%
5.3%
14.1%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
2.8%
21.3%
1.8%
3.2%
8.2%
5.5%
n.a.
4.8%
11.6%
-2.6%
2.1%
5.8%
n.a.
3Q 14
11.6%
10.9%
9.7%
14.2%
40.0%
5.0%
n.a.
4.9%
16.5%
12.5%
12.4%
5.7%
n.a.
4Q 14
14.9%
16.8%
16.1%
13.2%
14.5%
7.4%
n.a.
10.0%
18.2%
18.4%
16.9%
8.5%
n.a.
1Q 15
14.0%
10.1%
13.7%
14.9%
2.5%
-0.1%
n.a.
13.8%
14.5%
21.0%
17.8%
1.8%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
DEMAND
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
0
109
(458)
(519)
0.0%
0.6%
1Q 13
18,821
6,739
35.8%
2Q 13
0
109
177
(180)
0.0%
0.6%
2Q 13
18,821
7,028
37.3%
3Q 13
0
0
41
(15)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
18,821
6,851
36.4%
4Q 13
0
0
67
(119)
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
18,821
7,055
37.5%
1Q 14
0
0
16
281
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
18,821
7,234
38.4%
2Q 14
0
0
28
139
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
18,821
7,351
39.1%
3Q 14
54
54
114
220
0.3%
0.3%
3Q 14
18,875
7,440
39.4%
4Q 14
0
54
46
192
0.0%
0.3%
4Q 14
18,875
7,330
38.8%
1Q 15
0
54
314
491
0.0%
0.3%
1Q 15
18,875
7,440
39.4%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 41
5 SAN FRANCISCO: CENTRAL SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
20,947
8,640
41.2%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
0
308
1.5%
164
522
0
‐34
476
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
96.1%
‐0.4
0.4
97.6%
95.3%
96.4%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$2,655
$3.079
0.4%
7.7%
16.1%
2.4%
8.6%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.0%
8.1%
16.6%
4.2%
8.7%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
12%
Submarket
Metro
10%
8%
6%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
232
254
96.3%
0.2
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 42
5 SAN FRANCISCO: CENTRAL SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
5
5
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Mode by Alta
2089 Pacific Blv d, San Mateo, CA 94403
Elkhorn Court
1950 Elkhorn Ct, San Mateo, CA 94403
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Wood Partners
Conv entional
111
3
04/13 08/14
Coastal Rim Properties Inc
Conv entional
197
4
07/12 09/14
Total Units: 308
Sub#
5
5
Properties Under Construction
Triton Pointe
5541 Foster City Blv d, Foster City, CA 94404
Foster Square Senior
Foster City Blv d & Civ ic Center Dr, Foster City, CA 94404
Developer
Thompson Dorfman Partners
LLC/CityView
MidPen Housing Corp
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
166
6
08/14 06/15
Senior
66
4
12/14 02/16
Total Units: 232
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94010, 94401, 94402, 94403, 94404
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 43
5 SAN FRANCISCO: CENTRAL SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
95.4%
97.2%
95.4%
95.4%
95.5%
94.3%
90.5%
96.0%
95.4%
96.6%
95.7%
94.3%
95.0%
2Q 13
97.6%
98.1%
97.4%
97.8%
98.1%
96.8%
98.1%
97.4%
97.3%
98.5%
97.7%
96.8%
98.8%
3Q 13
96.3%
96.7%
96.4%
96.1%
96.0%
95.5%
97.1%
94.6%
96.7%
97.1%
96.4%
95.0%
97.4%
4Q 13
96.4%
97.4%
96.2%
96.8%
94.5%
94.8%
94.7%
97.5%
96.3%
96.9%
96.7%
95.0%
96.3%
1Q 14
95.7%
95.7%
95.8%
95.6%
95.5%
95.1%
96.7%
94.9%
95.5%
96.8%
95.8%
95.1%
96.5%
2Q 14
96.5%
97.8%
96.4%
96.7%
95.7%
95.6%
95.5%
96.7%
96.6%
96.9%
96.7%
95.7%
95.9%
3Q 14
96.9%
96.3%
96.8%
97.2%
95.1%
97.3%
96.2%
97.2%
97.0%
96.3%
97.0%
97.5%
92.2%
4Q 14
96.5%
98.6%
96.7%
96.3%
95.4%
94.3%
96.1%
96.7%
97.3%
96.6%
97.1%
94.8%
94.0%
1Q 15
96.1%
97.7%
95.9%
96.4%
96.0%
94.9%
95.0%
95.9%
96.3%
97.0%
96.6%
95.3%
93.1%
1Q 13
$2,242
$1,660
$1,972
$2,509
$2,931
$2,772
$2,543 $2,285 $2,049
$2,167
$2,152
$2,772
$2,234
2Q 13
$2,388
$1,599
$2,098
$2,687
$3,195
$3,051
$2,369 $2,404 $2,216
$2,246
$2,287
$2,942
$2,244
3Q 13
$2,455
$1,616
$2,142
$2,799
$3,282
$3,105
$2,300 $2,556 $2,271
$2,339
$2,361
$2,985
$2,366
4Q 13
$2,439
$1,720
$2,162
$2,736
$3,136
$3,152
$2,715 $2,598 $2,217
$2,269
$2,360
$3,015
$2,179
1Q 14
$2,448
$1,735
$2,180
$2,715
$3,251
$2,906
$2,753 $2,572 $2,229
$2,328
$2,368
$2,906
$2,191
2Q 14
$2,552
$1,801
$2,237
$2,871
$3,453
$3,024
$2,994 $2,607 $2,376
$2,388
$2,480
$2,945
$2,266
3Q 14
$2,626
$1,715
$2,311
$2,956
$3,547
$3,166
$2,419 $2,651 $2,480
$2,505
$2,523
$3,073
$2,632
4Q 14
$2,636
$2,062
$2,327
$2,920
$3,586
$3,064
$2,726 $2,702 $2,457
$2,550
$2,558
$2,995
$2,543
1Q 15
$2,655
$2,074
$2,352
$2,947
$3,463
$3,068
$3,000 $2,739 $2,442
$2,591
$2,568
$3,002
$2,678
1Q 13
$2.617
$3.045
$2.797
$2.491
$2.390
$2.843
$2.559 $2.662 $2.697
$2.331
$2.578
$2.843
$2.514
2Q 13
$2.787
$3.054
$2.967
$2.656
$2.610
$3.129
$2.666 $2.800 $2.884
$2.486
$2.723
$3.097
$2.704
3Q 13
$2.892
$3.110
$3.055
$2.778
$2.676
$3.183
$2.589 $2.977 $2.989
$2.581
$2.852
$3.143
$2.663
4Q 13
$2.885
$3.190
$3.113
$2.730
$2.572
$3.262
$2.731 $3.027 $2.941
$2.548
$2.841
$3.214
$2.625
1Q 14
$2.877
$3.219
$3.119
$2.700
$2.645
$3.069
$2.770 $2.996 $2.934
$2.583
$2.847
$3.069
$2.640
2Q 14
$3.006
$3.340
$3.205
$2.858
$2.810
$3.194
$3.013 $3.037 $3.128
$2.681
$2.982
$3.172
$2.730
3Q 14
$3.083
$3.300
$3.283
$2.940
$2.874
$3.343
$2.723 $3.088 $3.238
$2.771
$3.035
$3.309
$2.950
4Q 14
$3.092
$3.782
$3.329
$2.903
$2.911
$3.236
$2.743 $3.147 $3.236
$2.829
$3.063
$3.225
$3.021
1Q 15
$3.079
$3.803
$3.307
$2.908
$2.806
$3.240
$3.018 $3.083 $3.188
$2.833
$3.043
$3.233
$3.003
1Q 13
7.2%
13.1%
5.3%
8.9%
5.9%
2.8%
15.7%
4.0%
8.9%
8.0%
8.2%
2.8%
9.9%
2Q 13
8.5%
9.8%
10.9%
6.1%
8.7%
1.3%
16.1%
0.3%
10.8%
9.0%
8.4%
2.8%
14.7%
3Q 13
10.1%
11.2%
10.8%
10.0%
6.0%
10.1%
-1.0%
12.9%
10.6%
9.5%
10.5%
9.3%
7.2%
4Q 13
9.2%
4.5%
9.9%
9.2%
6.6%
15.0%
5.5%
10.8%
8.1%
7.3%
8.6%
13.8%
3.7%
1Q 14
9.7%
7.4%
11.5%
7.9%
11.6%
8.2%
8.3%
12.6%
8.8%
10.3%
10.6%
8.2%
0.8%
2Q 14
5.5%
3.3%
6.0%
5.1%
6.3%
-2.2%
7.3%
8.5%
6.7%
7.1%
7.8%
-1.7%
1.0%
3Q 14
5.7%
6.1%
6.8%
4.6%
6.4%
0.5%
5.2%
3.7%
8.5%
7.0%
6.5%
0.8%
11.6%
4Q 14
6.4%
16.7%
5.8%
5.7%
12.3%
-5.0%
0.4%
4.0%
10.9%
10.6%
8.0%
-3.6%
15.7%
20.2%
1Q 15
7.7%
16.3%
6.7%
8.5%
6.1%
5.6%
9.0%
4.2%
8.9%
10.0%
7.6%
5.6%
1Q 13
5.8%
13.5%
3.9%
7.4%
4.9%
-0.3%
8.9%
3.7%
8.5%
6.4%
7.3%
-0.5%
8.1%
2Q 13
8.8%
10.1%
10.9%
6.9%
9.1%
1.0%
16.3%
0.9%
11.4%
9.3%
8.9%
2.3%
15.1%
6.5%
3Q 13
9.5%
11.4%
10.3%
9.2%
4.7%
9.9%
0.3%
10.2%
10.8%
8.9%
9.9%
8.4%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
10.3%
5.8%
10.7%
10.6%
7.1%
15.1%
5.2%
12.6%
10.1%
7.0%
10.0%
13.8%
3.1%
REVENUE
1Q 14
10.0%
5.9%
11.9%
8.1%
11.6%
9.0%
14.5%
11.5%
8.9%
10.5%
10.7%
9.0%
2.3%
CHANGE
2Q 14
4.4%
3.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.9%
-3.4%
4.7%
7.8%
6.0%
5.5%
6.8%
-2.8%
-1.9%
3Q 14
6.3%
5.7%
7.2%
5.7%
5.5%
2.3%
4.3%
6.3%
8.8%
6.2%
7.1%
3.3%
6.4%
4Q 14
6.5%
17.9%
6.3%
5.2%
13.2%
-5.5%
1.8%
3.2%
11.9%
10.3%
8.4%
-3.8%
13.4%
1Q 15
8.1%
18.3%
6.8%
9.3%
6.6%
5.4%
7.3%
5.2%
9.7%
10.2%
8.4%
5.8%
16.8%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
2Q 13
0
3Q 13
367
367
69
221
1.8%
1.8%
3Q 13
20,484
8,708
42.5%
4Q 13
0
367
40
535
0.0%
1.8%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
20,484
8,392
41.0%
1Q 14
155
522
(1)
539
0.8%
2.6%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
20,639
8,902
43.1%
2Q 14
0
522
228
261
0.0%
2.6%
2Q 14
20,639
8,945
43.3%
3Q 14
308
463
351
566
1.5%
2.3%
3Q 14
20,947
9,099
43.4%
4Q 14
0
463
(93)
403
0.0%
2.3%
4Q 14
20,947
8,942
42.7%
1Q 15
0
308
(34)
476
0.0%
1.5%
1Q 15
20,947
8,640
41.2%
© 2015 MPF Research
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
0
20
(366)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
20,117
8,422
41.9%
0
495
71
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
20,117
8,277
41.1%
BAY AREA | 44
6 SAN FRANCISCO: SOUTH SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET
17,658
3,729
21.1%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
0
521
3.0%
112
521
0
174
63
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
94.6%
0.6
‐2.6
98.7%
94.0%
97.1%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$2,682
$3.105
0.9%
10.2%
13.2%
4.7%
8.4%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
98%
96%
94%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1.5%
7.6%
15.6%
4.6%
8.5%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
12%
Submarket
Metro
10%
8%
6%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
92%
1,498
1,237
93.7%
‐0.9
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 45
6 SAN FRANCISCO: SOUTH SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
6
6
6
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
201 Marshall
201 Marshall St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Lane on the Boulevard (The)
2580 El Camino Real, Redwood City, CA 94061
Radius
620 Veterans Blv d, Redwood City, CA 94063
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Raintree Partners
Conv entional
116
7
11/12 04/14
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
141
4
11/12 07/14
BRE Properties Inc
Conv entional
264
5
11/12 12/14
Total Units: 521
Sub#
6
6
6
6
6
Properties Under Construction
Elan Redwood City
113 Monroe St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Fuller Street (The)
439 Fuller St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Indigo
525 Middlefield Rd, Redwood City, CA 94063
Anton Menlo
3639 Hav en Av e, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Redwood City
601 Main St, Redwood City, CA 94063
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Greystar
Conv entional
305
6
07/13 09/15
Acclaim Companies
Conv entional
133
5
07/14 12/15
The Pauls Corp
Conv entional
470
10
04/14 01/16
St Anton Partners
Conv entional
394
4
09/14 03/16
Conv entional
196
8
03/14 03/16
Lennar Corp/The Resmark
Companies
Total Units: 1,498
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94002, 94019, 94020, 94021, 94025, 94027, 94028, 94037, 94038, 94060, 94061, 94062, 94063, 94065, 94070, 94074
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 46
6 SAN FRANCISCO: SOUTH SAN MATEO COUNTY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.5%
99.2%
96.1%
95.9%
97.9%
96.2%
95.8%
95.2%
97.5%
96.7%
96.4%
95.9%
100.0%
2Q 13
98.4%
98.4%
98.1%
98.4%
99.2%
97.8%
97.7%
97.2%
98.6%
99.2%
98.6%
97.5%
98.5%
3Q 13
98.2%
98.7%
98.4%
97.6%
98.7%
98.0%
97.7%
96.8%
98.7%
98.5%
98.0%
98.5%
98.5%
4Q 13
97.6%
98.4%
97.5%
97.5%
98.1%
97.8%
94.4%
97.8%
97.7%
98.2%
97.1%
98.4%
99.2%
1Q 14
97.2%
100.0%
97.0%
96.7%
98.2%
96.9%
94.9%
96.3%
97.8%
97.8%
96.9%
96.6%
99.6%
2Q 14
97.5%
99.2%
97.1%
97.4%
98.3%
95.4%
98.0%
98.3%
97.8%
97.7%
97.7%
95.3%
99.6%
3Q 14
98.7%
99.7%
98.4%
98.7%
99.2%
99.6%
96.1%
98.2%
98.8%
99.5%
98.3%
99.6%
99.6%
4Q 14
94.0%
96.0%
92.4%
94.5%
98.3%
87.7%
93.5%
95.0%
97.2%
97.3%
95.7%
88.8%
99.6%
1Q 15
94.6%
95.0%
93.1%
95.5%
98.5%
90.2%
95.8%
93.1%
97.0%
97.6%
95.9%
90.8%
99.4%
1Q 13
$2,119
$993
$1,859
$2,523
$2,573
$2,079
$2,458 $2,031 $1,859
$2,294
$2,203
$2,104
$522
2Q 13
$2,219
$1,078
$1,916
$2,696
$2,730
$2,166
$2,504 $2,255 $1,871
$2,390
$2,351
$2,131
$1,178
3Q 13
$2,211
$1,116
$1,923
$2,657
$2,774
$2,361
$2,716 $2,028 $1,896
$2,458
$2,298
$2,379
$1,413
4Q 13
$2,235
$1,115
$1,902
$2,706
$2,736
$2,328
$2,710 $2,176 $1,843
$2,442
$2,356
$2,288
$1,484
1Q 14
$2,302
$1,111
$1,986
$2,714
$2,733
$2,340
$2,588 $2,334 $1,937
$2,549
$2,391
$2,535
$1,490
2Q 14
$2,456
$1,149
$2,121
$2,963
$2,905
$2,611
$2,708 $2,478 $1,838
$2,969
$2,551
$2,736
$1,507
3Q 14
$2,405
$1,216
$2,118
$2,887
$2,847
$2,405
$2,924 $2,328 $1,980
$2,806
$2,573
$2,479
$1,426
4Q 14
$2,530
$1,247
$2,297
$2,964
$2,892
$2,953
$2,932 $2,426 $1,834
$2,692
$2,534
$2,953
$1,389
1Q 15
$2,682
$1,619
$2,406
$3,063
$3,095
$3,015
$2,962 $2,563 $2,069
$2,828
$2,640
$3,024
$1,741
1Q 13
$2.468
$2.481
$2.662
$2.456
$2.046
$2.066
$2.693 $2.929 $2.446
$2.443
$2.488
$2.531
$1.122
2Q 13
$2.618
$2.621
$2.800
$2.628
$2.171
$2.152
$2.743 $3.251 $2.539
$2.621
$2.664
$2.618
$1.955
3Q 13
$2.616
$2.715
$2.782
$2.591
$2.206
$2.345
$2.975 $2.952 $2.460
$2.647
$2.655
$2.862
$1.901
4Q 13
$2.638
$2.697
$2.801
$2.642
$2.175
$2.312
$2.968 $3.166 $2.483
$2.590
$2.697
$2.774
$1.996
1Q 14
$2.653
$2.519
$2.884
$2.637
$2.175
$2.325
$2.834 $3.094 $2.564
$2.680
$2.709
$2.817
$2.005
2Q 14
$2.873
$2.655
$3.054
$2.911
$2.338
$2.606
$2.966 $3.357 $2.491
$3.160
$2.974
$2.994
$2.028
3Q 14
$2.823
$2.958
$3.056
$2.806
$2.266
$2.389
$3.202 $3.356 $2.553
$2.988
$2.926
$2.982
$1.918
4Q 14
$2.992
$2.856
$3.350
$2.902
$2.324
$3.097
$3.212 $3.286 $2.630
$2.924
$3.012
$3.312
$1.869
1Q 15
$3.105
$3.503
$3.470
$2.967
$2.453
$3.144
$3.245 $3.397 $2.818
$3.088
$3.110
$3.386
$2.034
1Q 13
6.4%
2.6%
7.0%
5.7%
8.8%
1.5%
6.7%
2.5%
10.2%
9.7%
7.3%
3.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.3%
1.5%
5.2%
5.6%
5.6%
-0.2%
3.8%
10.7%
6.3%
4.3%
6.4%
1.6%
7.5%
3Q 13
7.9%
7.7%
7.7%
8.1%
8.2%
8.5%
8.1%
10.0%
5.8%
8.1%
8.2%
8.2%
-1.9%
4Q 13
5.7%
6.1%
4.7%
6.7%
5.8%
5.4%
10.9%
5.8%
2.3%
5.4%
5.3%
7.3%
3.0%
1Q 14
8.8%
10.0%
8.8%
9.5%
6.3%
12.5%
5.3%
8.0%
7.3%
9.6%
7.6%
14.3%
0.0%
-2.8%
2Q 14
9.6%
10.2%
5.6%
12.9%
8.8%
9.4%
8.1%
7.7%
6.1%
12.9%
10.3%
9.5%
3Q 14
5.8%
9.0%
5.7%
6.4%
2.9%
1.9%
7.6%
9.7%
5.5%
5.5%
6.9%
4.2%
0.9%
4Q 14
8.2%
6.3%
11.4%
6.2%
6.0%
11.7%
8.2%
5.2%
8.9%
7.7%
9.3%
11.2%
-6.4%
-7.6%
1Q 15
10.2%
6.5%
11.2%
9.1%
12.3%
6.2%
14.5%
9.8%
7.6%
12.7%
13.4%
7.0%
1Q 13
5.6%
4.3%
5.9%
4.3%
8.1%
5.0%
7.0%
1.5%
9.6%
6.9%
6.0%
3.9%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.0%
0.5%
5.4%
6.6%
8.4%
0.4%
7.7%
9.3%
7.3%
4.7%
7.9%
0.5%
6.9%
3Q 13
8.4%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
11.1%
7.5%
7.8%
9.8%
6.1%
9.5%
8.9%
7.3%
-0.1%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
5.7%
5.6%
4.9%
7.1%
3.9%
6.3%
9.2%
6.1%
2.9%
4.5%
4.1%
8.8%
12.8%
REVENUE
1Q 14
9.5%
10.8%
9.7%
10.3%
6.6%
13.2%
4.4%
9.1%
7.6%
10.7%
8.1%
15.0%
-0.4%
CHANGE
2Q 14
8.7%
11.0%
4.6%
11.9%
7.9%
7.0%
8.4%
8.8%
5.3%
11.4%
9.4%
7.3%
-1.7%
3Q 14
6.3%
10.0%
5.7%
7.5%
3.4%
3.5%
6.0%
11.1%
5.6%
6.5%
7.2%
5.3%
2.0%
4Q 14
4.6%
3.9%
6.3%
3.2%
6.2%
1.6%
7.3%
2.4%
8.4%
6.8%
7.9%
1.6%
-6.0%
1Q 15
7.6%
1.5%
7.3%
7.9%
12.6%
-0.5%
15.4%
6.6%
6.8%
12.5%
12.4%
1.2%
-7.8%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
0
14
(232)
(170)
0.0%
0.1%
1Q 13
17,005
3,597
21.2%
2Q 13
0
0
368
129
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
17,005
3,634
21.4%
24.2%
3Q 13
0
0
(44)
71
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
17,005
4,109
4Q 13
132
132
40
121
0.8%
0.8%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
17,137
3,863
22.5%
1Q 14
0
132
(93)
245
0.0%
0.8%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
17,137
3,733
21.8%
2Q 14
116
248
218
80
0.7%
1.5%
2Q 14
17,253
3,667
21.3%
3Q 14
141
389
332
470
0.8%
2.3%
3Q 14
17,394
3,633
20.9%
4Q 14
264
521
(638)
(149)
1.5%
3.0%
4Q 14
17,658
3,956
22.4%
1Q 15
0
521
174
63
0.0%
3.0%
1Q 15
17,658
3,729
21.1%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 47
7 SAN FRANCISCO: MARIN COUNTY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
19,374
5,197
26.8%
METRO
228,585
42,812
18.7%
0
0
0.0%
24
124
0
‐26
‐43
520
3,478
1.5%
1,559
3,478
0
358
3,167
97.4%
‐0.3
‐0.3
98.2%
95.1%
97.2%
96.3%
‐0.1
‐0.1
97.3%
95.3%
96.3%
$2,283
$2.617
0.7%
7.2%
11.3%
‐2.9%
5.6%
$2,831
$3.478
0.8%
10.2%
14.6%
0.7%
7.6%
0.4%
6.9%
11.0%
‐2.5%
6.1%
0.7%
10.1%
15.5%
1.8%
8.0%
180
182
97.5%
0.1
5,411
4,978
96.2%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
14%
Submarket
Metro
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 48
7 SAN FRANCISCO: MARIN COUNTY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
7
Properties Under Construction
Tam Ridge Residences
199 Tamal Vista Blv d, Corte Madera, CA 94925
MacFarlane Partners
Conv entional
180
4
09/12 05/15
Total Units: 180
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94901, 94903, 94904, 94920, 94924, 94925, 94929, 94930, 94933, 94937, 94938, 94939, 94940, 94941, 94945, 94946, 94947, 94949, 94950, 94956, 94960, 94963, 94964, 94965, 94970, 94971, 94973
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 49
7 SAN FRANCISCO: MARIN COUNTY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
98.0%
99.3%
98.0%
98.0%
97.7%
95.3%
98.2%
96.8%
99.2%
98.4%
98.3%
95.3%
n.a.
2Q 13
97.6%
97.3%
97.3%
97.9%
97.5%
97.2%
96.5%
97.7%
98.6%
97.2%
98.1%
93.4%
n.a.
3Q 13
98.0%
99.0%
97.7%
98.3%
96.9%
99.4%
96.2%
98.2%
98.7%
97.4%
98.4%
94.2%
n.a.
4Q 13
98.1%
97.5%
97.7%
98.4%
98.0%
98.5%
97.1%
98.0%
98.9%
97.4%
98.3%
95.7%
n.a.
1Q 14
97.7%
99.3%
97.7%
97.7%
97.6%
98.1%
97.0%
97.9%
97.3%
98.6%
97.9%
95.9%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.9%
100.0%
97.5%
98.1%
98.3%
99.2%
97.2%
96.2%
98.1%
98.9%
98.2%
95.9%
n.a.
3Q 14
98.2%
97.9%
97.8%
98.6%
97.2%
98.5%
97.2%
98.6%
98.2%
98.5%
98.4%
95.9%
n.a.
4Q 14
97.7%
98.9%
97.8%
97.8%
96.2%
97.9%
96.7%
99.1%
96.9%
98.2%
98.0%
94.7%
n.a.
1Q 15
97.4%
96.2%
97.4%
97.5%
98.0%
95.6%
97.5%
97.9%
97.1%
98.2%
97.7%
95.5%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,906
$1,784
$1,655
$2,076
$2,335
$1,855
$1,914 $2,225 $1,721
$1,924
$1,861
$2,361
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,964
$1,754
$1,733
$2,076
$2,455
$1,936
$1,975 $2,567 $1,777
$2,009
$1,924
$2,326
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,994
$1,623
$1,766
$2,164
$2,363
$2,016
$1,951 $2,511 $1,744
$1,970
$1,952
$2,408
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,980
$1,981
$1,713
$2,119
$2,557
$1,955
$2,043 $2,202 $1,774
$2,125
$1,934
$2,406
n.a.
1Q 14
$2,104
$1,731
$1,843
$2,248
$2,742
$2,000
$2,212 $2,730 $1,757
$2,088
$2,037
$2,735
n.a.
2Q 14
$2,142
$1,910
$1,892
$2,272
$2,696
$2,140
$2,276 $2,596 $1,804
$2,094
$2,060
$2,903
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,219
$1,902
$1,981
$2,340
$2,716
$2,144
$2,427 $2,776 $1,840
$2,124
$2,134
$3,013
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,250
$1,818
$2,041
$2,360
$2,800
$2,178
$2,386 $2,661 $1,956
$2,145
$2,165
$3,040
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,283
$1,990
$2,004
$2,393
$2,964
$2,156
$2,441 $2,680 $1,930
$2,343
$2,170
$3,159
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.220
$4.421
$2.411
$2.111
$1.885
$2.004
$2.137 $2.875 $2.007
$2.197
$2.204
$2.350
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.267
$4.285
$2.504
$2.140
$1.992
$2.092
$2.206 $3.189 $2.103
$2.311
$2.261
$2.315
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.355
$3.999
$2.576
$2.240
$1.930
$2.179
$2.223 $3.149 $2.083
$2.337
$2.349
$2.397
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.314
$4.790
$2.532
$2.179
$2.077
$2.112
$2.282 $3.020 $2.123
$2.375
$2.304
$2.394
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.450
$4.338
$2.678
$2.315
$2.212
$2.161
$2.470 $3.453 $2.092
$2.398
$2.416
$2.722
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.507
$4.624
$2.784
$2.359
$2.199
$2.312
$2.542 $3.298 $2.152
$2.450
$2.457
$2.890
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.576
$4.722
$2.881
$2.432
$2.217
$2.317
$2.710 $3.403 $2.205
$2.444
$2.522
$2.999
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.630
$4.543
$2.964
$2.459
$2.275
$2.353
$2.665 $3.403 $2.276
$2.530
$2.579
$3.026
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.617
$5.089
$2.911
$2.471
$2.337
$2.330
$2.726 $3.296 $2.288
$2.566
$2.573
$2.883
n.a.
1Q 13
5.1%
3.4%
6.3%
4.2%
6.7%
2.3%
3.8%
2.4%
7.3%
6.7%
4.9%
5.9%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.5%
3.2%
8.4%
5.7%
4.6%
5.5%
3.1%
4.2%
8.7%
6.7%
6.8%
4.9%
n.a.
3Q 13
5.5%
3.8%
5.2%
6.4%
2.5%
8.6%
0.9%
5.4%
7.6%
5.7%
5.2%
7.5%
n.a.
4Q 13
5.0%
4.1%
5.1%
4.8%
6.0%
1.3%
0.5%
5.7%
8.2%
5.5%
5.2%
3.9%
n.a.
1Q 14
11.3%
2.2%
10.0%
11.3%
19.0%
7.8%
15.6%
12.4%
9.1%
10.2%
10.6%
15.9%
n.a.
2Q 14
8.1%
5.4%
9.1%
7.0%
11.5%
10.5%
15.2%
6.8%
3.3%
6.5%
5.6%
24.8%
n.a.
3Q 14
8.0%
6.4%
8.5%
7.3%
11.7%
6.3%
22.0%
6.9%
5.3%
3.5%
5.6%
25.1%
n.a.
4Q 14
9.2%
5.0%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
11.4%
16.8%
5.9%
6.3%
5.9%
6.5%
26.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
7.2%
7.7%
8.5%
6.7%
5.9%
7.8%
10.3%
3.5%
10.2%
4.2%
6.5%
11.9%
n.a.
1Q 13
6.6%
3.8%
8.4%
5.6%
6.5%
0.6%
6.3%
3.7%
9.5%
8.7%
6.7%
4.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.7%
5.1%
8.6%
6.0%
3.9%
4.3%
2.1%
6.2%
9.5%
6.7%
7.7%
-0.6%
n.a.
3Q 13
6.0%
3.7%
5.9%
7.0%
1.0%
9.7%
-0.1%
5.6%
8.8%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.0%
10.5%
5.7%
5.7%
8.1%
3.9%
2.0%
3.7%
9.2%
6.6%
5.8%
5.2%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
11.0%
2.2%
9.7%
11.0%
18.9%
10.6%
14.4%
13.5%
7.2%
10.4%
10.2%
16.5%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
8.4%
8.1%
9.3%
7.2%
12.3%
12.5%
15.9%
5.3%
2.8%
8.2%
5.7%
27.3%
n.a.
3Q 14
8.2%
5.3%
8.6%
7.6%
12.0%
5.4%
23.0%
7.3%
4.8%
4.6%
5.6%
26.8%
n.a.
4Q 14
8.8%
6.4%
9.3%
8.6%
7.9%
10.8%
16.4%
7.0%
4.3%
6.7%
6.2%
25.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
6.9%
4.6%
8.2%
6.5%
6.3%
5.3%
10.8%
3.5%
10.0%
3.8%
6.3%
11.5%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
0
60
137
236
0.0%
0.3%
1Q 13
19,374
5,108
26.4%
2Q 13
0
60
(66)
106
0.0%
0.3%
2Q 13
19,374
4,693
24.2%
3Q 13
0
60
66
146
0.0%
0.3%
3Q 13
19,374
5,083
26.2%
4Q 13
0
0
14
178
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
19,374
4,727
24.4%
1Q 14
0
0
(84)
(50)
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
19,374
4,931
25.5%
2Q 14
0
0
56
62
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
19,374
4,806
24.8%
3Q 14
0
0
41
33
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 14
19,374
4,796
24.8%
4Q 14
0
0
(96)
(73)
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 14
19,374
4,772
24.6%
1Q 15
0
0
(26)
(43)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 15
19,374
5,197
26.8%
© 2015 MPF Research
Ann
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
Period
BAY AREA | 50
SAN JOSE AREA SUBMARKETS
BAY AREA | 51
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
Submarket Number (Key Below)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Quarterly Supply
244
97
0
0
168
0
218
0
200
927
Annual Supply
875
97
284
133
380
325
563
75
1,445
4,177
Rank
2
8
6
7
4
5
3
9
1
188
0
60
0
0
0
76
0
0
324
Annual Inventory Change
2.5%
0.6%
2.4%
0.9%
2.0%
1.9%
2.3%
0.6%
12.0%
2.5%
2
8
3
7
5
6
4
8
1
Two-Year Supply
1,179
510
284
181
611
325
853
168
3,426
Two-Year Inventory Change
3.7%
3.0%
2.4%
1.2%
3.1%
1.9%
3.7%
1.4%
34.1%
4.9%
Five-Year Supply
1,284
1,130
400
451
719
374
1,647
682
4,549
11,236
Rank
3
4
8
7
5
9
2
6
1
4.1%
6.9%
3.7%
3.0%
3.7%
2.1%
7.8%
6.0%
51.0%
7.5%
Five-Year Avg Annual Change
0.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.2%
1.5%
1.4%
8.1%
1.3%
27,939
17,420
9,647
15,423
19,536
17,883
21,758
12,075
13,468
155,149
564
715
0
475
0
650
2,297
230
2,142
7,073
5
3
8
6
8
4
1
7
2
Quarterly Demand
552
286
-16
4
216
-55
374
79
276
1,718
Annual Demand
738
343
133
132
492
171
604
111
1,427
4,151
Existing Units
Rank
Two-Year Demand
1,057
727
281
270
675
86
1,039
249
3,434
7,820
Five-Year Demand
985
1,103
184
443
719
307
2,174
1,056
4,417
11,388
96.5%
97.7%
96.0%
97.0%
97.6%
95.4%
98.2%
98.6%
97.1%
97.1%
7
3
8
6
4
9
2
1
5
Current Rate
Rank
OCCUPANCY
Quarterly Change
1.4
1.3
-0.1
0.1
0.4
-0.3
1.2
0.7
0.9
0.6
Annual Change
0.4
1.5
-0.8
0.1
0.7
-0.8
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.3
5
1
8
7
2
8
3
6
4
Two-Year Change
Rank
0.4
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.5
-1.2
1.4
0.7
1.5
0.6
Five-Year Change
-0.4
0.1
-1.3
0.2
0.4
-0.1
3.6
3.7
0.4
0.6
96.9%
97.4%
96.5%
96.9%
97.1%
96.8%
97.2%
98.2%
96.7%
97.1%
5
2
9
5
4
7
3
1
8
$2,787
$2,473
$2,705
$2,437
$2,204
$2,134
$2,187
$1,560
$2,431
1
3
2
4
6
8
7
9
5
$3.335
$2.949
$3.068
$2.732
$2.593
$2.305
$2.406
$1.921
$2.742
1
3
2
5
6
8
7
9
4
Five-Year Average Rate
Rank
Monthly Rent
Rank
Rent Per Square Foot
Rank
RENT
-0.6%
3.1%
2.1%
2.5%
-0.4%
0.2%
1.0%
-0.3%
0.5%
1.0%
8.9%
11.9%
8.2%
10.9%
10.7%
8.0%
8.4%
5.1%
9.7%
9.3%
5
1
7
2
3
8
6
9
4
Two-Year Same-Store Change
19.6%
22.6%
21.4%
17.5%
16.6%
14.4%
16.5%
12.5%
18.8%
18.0%
Five-Year Same-Store Change
51.5%
54.1%
48.9%
45.5%
44.7%
40.6%
39.3%
27.9%
38.1%
44.1%
2
1
3
4
5
6
7
9
8
10.3%
10.3%
9.1%
8.8%
8.2%
7.3%
7.3%
5.0%
7.4%
1
1
3
4
5
7
7
9
6
Rank
Rank
Units with Concessions
0.0%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
n.a.
0.4%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
12.5%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
5.1%
Quarterly Change
0.8%
4.4%
2.0%
2.6%
0.0%
-0.1%
2.2%
0.4%
1.4%
1.6%
Annual Change
9.3%
13.4%
7.4%
11.0%
11.4%
7.2%
9.0%
5.4%
10.2%
9.6%
5
1
7
3
2
8
6
9
4
Two-Year Change
20.0%
23.9%
22.0%
18.1%
17.1%
13.2%
17.9%
13.2%
20.3%
18.6%
Five-Year Change
51.1%
54.2%
47.6%
45.7%
45.1%
40.5%
42.9%
31.6%
38.5%
44.7%
2
1
3
4
5
7
6
9
8
10.4%
10.6%
9.4%
9.1%
8.6%
7.9%
7.8%
5.7%
7.7%
8.7%
564
326
0
289
0
0
927
0
1,588
3,694
Rank
Five-Year Average Annual Change
Supply
Rank
Inventory Growth Rate
Rank
Demand
Occupancy Rate
Rank
Occupancy Change
Rank
© 2015 MPF Research
8.4%
Average Concession
Rank
Submarket Key
$2.670
Annual Same-Store Change
Five-Year Average Annual Change
ONE-YEAR FORECAST
$2,325
Quarterly Same-Store Change
Rank
REVENUE
7,537
Five-Year Inventory Change
All Active Construction
DEMAND
METRO
Annual Removals
Rank
SUPPLY
1Q 2015
3
4
6
5
6
6
2
6
1
2.0%
1.9%
0.0%
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
4.3%
0.0%
11.8%
3
4
6
4
6
6
2
6
1
2.4%
567
292
30
282
0
169
721
-40
1,246
3,267
96.6%
97.6%
96.3%
97.0%
97.6%
96.4%
97.4%
98.3%
95.1%
96.9%
6
3
8
5
2
7
4
1
9
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
1.0
-0.8
-0.3
-2.0
3
6
2
4
4
1
8
7
9
1. M o untain View/P alo A lto /Lo s A lto s
2. No rth Sunnyvale
3. So uth Sunnyvale/Cupertino
4. Santa Clara
5. West San Jo se/Campbell
-0.2
6. So uth San Jo se
7. Central San Jo se
8. East San Jo se
9. No rth San Jo se/M ilpitas
BAY AREA | 52
1 SAN JOSE: MOUNTAIN VIEW/PALO ALTO/LOS ALTOS
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Annual
1.5k
Annual Rent Change
Occupancy
1.0k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.5k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
27,939
7,792
27.9%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
244
875
2.5%
198
875
0
552
738
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
96.5%
1.4
0.4
97.8%
95.1%
96.9%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,787
$3.335
‐0.6%
8.9%
19.3%
3.5%
10.3%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.8%
9.3%
19.5%
3.5%
10.4%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
12%
Submarket
Metro
10%
8%
6%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Quarterly
2.0k
Monthly Rent
This Submarket
1Q 2015
564
567
96.6%
0.1
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 53
1 SAN JOSE: MOUNTAIN VIEW/PALO ALTO/LOS ALTOS
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
1
1
1
1
1
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Carmel The Village
Carmel Partners
Conv entional
330
5
11/11 04/14
SARES-REGIS Group
Conv entional
167
4
04/13 08/14
Prometheus
Conv entional
134
2
02/13 12/14
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
193
4
04/13 02/15
Eden Housing Inc/ROEM Corp
Affordable
51
3
01/14 03/15
555 San Antonio Rd, Mountain View, CA 94040
Colonnade (The)
4750 El Camino Real, Los Altos, CA 94022
Madrone Addition
111 N Rengstorff Av e, Mountain View, CA 94043
Domus on the Boulevard
2650 W El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
819 North Rengstorff
819 N Rengstorff Av e, Mountain View, CA 94043
Total Units: 875
Sub#
1
1
1
1
Properties Under Construction
Manzanita II
1616 W El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
Montrose West
1720 W El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
Mountain View
861 E El Camino Real, Mountain View, CA 94040
100 Moffett
100 Moffett Blv d, Mountain View, CA 94043
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Prometheus
Conv entional
66
4
05/14 05/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
162
4
01/14 07/15
Lennar Corp
Conv entional
150
4
11/13 10/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
186
4
07/14 01/16
Total Units: 564
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94022, 94024, 94035, 94040, 94041, 94043, 94301, 94303, 94304, 94305, 94306
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 54
1 SAN JOSE: MOUNTAIN VIEW/PALO ALTO/LOS ALTOS
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q 13
96.1%
95.5%
96.4%
95.6%
97.5%
98.0%
92.1%
96.3%
96.8%
95.4%
96.5%
94.1%
High-Rise
n.a.
2Q 13
96.2%
98.9%
95.5%
96.6%
97.9%
96.1%
93.7%
96.6%
96.6%
95.7%
96.7%
94.0%
92.4%
3Q 13
96.6%
87.8%
97.2%
96.9%
97.2%
96.7%
95.3%
98.0%
98.1%
95.1%
96.9%
95.6%
93.8%
4Q 13
96.6%
85.5%
97.5%
96.8%
95.8%
98.0%
93.7%
98.3%
97.5%
95.1%
96.2%
98.6%
96.2%
1Q 14
96.1%
86.0%
96.3%
96.7%
98.4%
96.3%
84.3%
96.7%
98.4%
94.8%
96.1%
96.8%
94.9%
2Q 14
97.1%
88.0%
97.6%
97.4%
99.1%
95.9%
89.8%
97.2%
99.1%
96.3%
97.4%
95.3%
98.9%
3Q 14
97.5%
88.8%
98.2%
98.0%
97.3%
96.9%
95.3%
96.7%
98.8%
97.2%
97.6%
97.3%
97.4%
4Q 14
95.1%
86.0%
95.7%
95.2%
96.7%
91.9%
95.3%
97.1%
96.8%
94.5%
95.2%
94.5%
95.6%
1Q 15
96.5%
88.2%
97.0%
96.9%
97.4%
96.6%
95.3%
98.1%
97.7%
95.0%
97.0%
93.3%
99.6%
1Q 13
$2,169
$1,548
$1,917
$2,466
$2,770
$1,797
$2,065 $2,498 $2,063
$2,172
$2,072
$2,713
n.a.
2Q 13
$2,440
$1,527
$2,061
$2,864
$3,231
$3,156
$2,138 $2,701 $2,134
$2,454
$2,283
$2,936
$4,129
3Q 13
$2,432
$1,357
$2,114
$2,850
$3,166
$2,826
$2,489 $2,719 $2,247
$2,412
$2,269
$3,145
$3,334
4Q 13
$2,496
$1,301
$2,185
$2,925
$3,013
$3,142
$2,376 $2,752 $2,173
$2,493
$2,301
$3,440
$3,224
1Q 14
$2,490
$1,254
$2,190
$2,891
$3,102
$2,907
$2,343 $2,811 $2,257
$2,425
$2,332
$3,203
$3,464
2Q 14
$2,627
$1,565
$2,309
$3,067
$3,209
$3,183
$2,343 $2,979 $2,370
$2,531
$2,432
$3,357
$3,478
3Q 14
$2,767
$1,743
$2,431
$3,234
$3,365
$3,465
$2,621 $2,999 $2,468
$2,658
$2,543
$3,628
$3,643
4Q 14
$2,805
$1,726
$2,454
$3,246
$3,355
$3,486
$2,582 $2,915 $2,492
$2,684
$2,577
$3,707
$3,599
1Q 15
$2,787
$1,696
$2,467
$3,214
$3,583
$3,420
$2,844 $3,042 $2,514
$2,627
$2,617
$3,426
$3,627
1Q 13
$2.637
$2.932
$2.831
$2.509
$2.329
$2.192
$2.628 $2.969 $2.403
$2.750
$2.537
$3.168
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.920
$3.246
$3.011
$2.879
$2.636
$3.239
$2.721 $3.210 $2.531
$3.055
$2.770
$3.428
$3.989
3Q 13
$2.927
$2.557
$3.094
$2.870
$2.582
$2.900
$3.168 $3.244 $2.669
$3.011
$2.786
$3.673
$3.028
4Q 13
$2.982
$2.353
$3.171
$2.940
$2.470
$3.208
$3.024 $3.283 $2.524
$3.159
$2.783
$4.017
$3.115
1Q 14
$2.980
$2.376
$3.199
$2.916
$2.534
$3.183
$2.982 $3.341 $2.625
$3.037
$2.841
$3.740
$3.147
2Q 14
$3.148
$2.935
$3.377
$3.058
$2.634
$3.464
$2.982 $3.554 $2.799
$3.160
$2.958
$3.999
$3.159
3Q 14
$3.339
$3.378
$3.570
$3.237
$2.747
$3.948
$3.336 $3.579 $2.916
$3.333
$3.121
$4.322
$3.308
4Q 14
$3.333
$3.265
$3.584
$3.237
$2.733
$3.952
$3.286 $3.497 $2.867
$3.321
$3.121
$4.302
$3.269
1Q 15
$3.335
$3.274
$3.575
$3.212
$2.898
$3.896
$3.619 $3.616 $2.985
$3.225
$3.196
$3.975
$3.294
1Q 13
5.1%
11.3%
5.2%
4.8%
5.8%
1.8%
22.9%
4.9%
8.3%
2.3%
7.1%
-0.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.9%
7.2%
5.6%
5.6%
10.1%
14.5%
24.5%
7.9%
5.8%
3.2%
7.9%
-0.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
7.5%
6.9%
8.1%
7.4%
4.8%
10.8%
20.1%
6.0%
10.9%
4.7%
8.9%
2.3%
10.1%
n.a.
4Q 13
8.4%
-8.2%
8.7%
9.5%
6.1%
5.2%
13.7%
10.2%
4.8%
10.2%
5.8%
18.0%
1Q 14
10.7%
-19.0%
11.1%
13.2%
7.7%
4.9%
13.5%
12.6%
9.0%
11.6%
8.9%
18.0%
n.a.
2Q 14
9.2%
12.9%
9.9%
8.5%
8.8%
-8.8%
9.6%
9.9%
13.3%
10.2%
9.9%
13.4%
-16.3%
3Q 14
9.4%
9.3%
9.8%
9.1%
8.2%
5.8%
5.3%
10.3%
8.7%
10.2%
8.0%
15.0%
9.3%
4Q 14
9.0%
6.3%
9.3%
8.6%
11.2%
10.7%
8.7%
6.7%
13.4%
6.5%
10.7%
3.1%
8.9%
1Q 15
8.9%
23.5%
8.8%
8.5%
7.9%
16.2%
21.4%
8.2%
10.1%
5.5%
10.9%
1.7%
4.7%
1Q 13
3.5%
8.1%
3.8%
2.8%
5.9%
1.1%
17.3%
5.0%
7.0%
-0.5%
6.1%
-5.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.2%
12.7%
4.3%
5.0%
10.3%
13.6%
22.9%
7.0%
5.2%
2.5%
7.7%
-3.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
6.6%
-5.3%
7.6%
7.3%
3.0%
12.9%
21.7%
6.7%
11.4%
1.6%
8.4%
-1.4%
11.3%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
7.8%
-21.4%
9.1%
9.2%
4.2%
5.6%
12.1%
13.0%
5.0%
7.5%
4.7%
20.0%
REVENUE
1Q 14
10.7%
-28.5%
11.0%
14.3%
8.6%
3.2%
5.7%
13.0%
10.6%
11.0%
8.5%
20.7%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
10.1%
2.0%
12.0%
9.3%
10.0%
-9.0%
5.7%
10.5%
15.8%
10.8%
10.6%
14.7%
-9.8%
3Q 14
10.3%
10.3%
10.8%
10.2%
8.3%
6.0%
5.3%
9.0%
9.4%
12.3%
8.7%
16.7%
12.9%
4Q 14
7.5%
6.8%
7.5%
7.0%
12.1%
4.6%
10.3%
5.5%
12.7%
5.9%
9.7%
-1.0%
8.3%
1Q 15
9.3%
25.7%
9.5%
8.7%
6.9%
16.5%
32.4%
9.6%
9.4%
5.7%
11.8%
-1.8%
9.4%
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
26.1%
CHANGE
1Q 13
0
14
(276)
(404)
0.0%
0.1%
1Q 13
26,948
7,021
2Q 13
254
268
278
70
0.9%
1.0%
2Q 13
27,202
6,909
25.4%
3Q 13
50
318
154
69
0.2%
1.2%
3Q 13
27,252
7,500
27.5%
4Q 13
0
304
(7)
129
0.0%
1.1%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
27,252
7,214
26.5%
1Q 14
0
304
(116)
299
0.0%
1.1%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
27,252
7,836
28.8%
2Q 14
330
380
597
615
1.2%
1.4%
2Q 14
27,582
8,053
29.2%
3Q 14
167
497
274
742
0.6%
1.8%
3Q 14
27,749
8,106
29.2%
4Q 14
134
631
(675)
24
-0.2%
1.6%
4Q 14
27,695
7,693
27.8%
1Q 15
244
875
552
738
0.9%
2.5%
1Q 15
27,939
7,792
27.9%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 55
2 SAN JOSE: NORTH SUNNYVALE
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
17,420
8,804
50.5%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
97
97
0.6%
211
413
0
286
343
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
97.7%
1.3
1.5
98.9%
95.7%
97.4%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,473
$2.949
3.1%
11.9%
15.2%
2.1%
10.3%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4.4%
13.4%
15.6%
4.9%
10.6%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
326
292
97.6%
‐0.1
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
14%
Submarket
Metro
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 56
2 SAN JOSE: NORTH SUNNYVALE
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
2
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Anton 1101
1101 N Fair Oaks Av e, Sunnyv ale, CA 94089
Developer
St Anton Partners
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
97
4
07/13 02/15
Total Units: 97
Sub#
2
2
2
2
Properties Under Construction
Ironworks South
388 E Ev elyn Av e, Sunnyv ale, CA 94086
Stewart Village
959 Stewart Dr, Sunnyv ale, CA 94085
Ironworks
457 E Ev elyn Av e, Sunnyv ale, CA 94086
East Weddell
610 E Weddell Dr, Sunnyv ale, CA 94089
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Prometheus
Conv entional
67
5
05/14 05/15
The Irv ine Company LLC
Conv entional
259
3
04/13 09/15
Prometheus
Conv entional
184
5
05/14 04/16
SARES-REGIS Group
Conv entional
205
4
01/15 05/16
Total Units: 715
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94085, 94086, 94089
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 57
2 SAN JOSE: NORTH SUNNYVALE
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.4%
91.6%
96.5%
96.3%
95.5%
97.6%
94.7%
97.3%
96.4%
97.0%
96.4%
93.1%
n.a.
2Q 13
97.5%
96.3%
97.6%
97.4%
97.8%
97.4%
96.2%
97.7%
97.7%
98.7%
97.4%
99.3%
n.a.
3Q 13
96.6%
99.1%
96.6%
96.5%
96.9%
97.7%
91.9%
97.7%
97.7%
97.8%
96.5%
98.9%
n.a.
4Q 13
95.7%
98.1%
95.6%
95.7%
95.1%
97.2%
89.7%
97.2%
96.5%
99.3%
95.3%
99.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.2%
94.4%
96.3%
96.1%
98.8%
95.5%
95.4%
97.1%
95.4%
99.3%
96.4%
94.7%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.7%
99.1%
97.7%
97.5%
98.8%
96.8%
96.7%
97.2%
98.1%
99.9%
97.8%
96.7%
n.a.
3Q 14
97.3%
96.3%
97.4%
97.3%
96.4%
97.6%
96.4%
97.4%
97.5%
98.7%
97.2%
98.3%
n.a.
4Q 14
96.4%
97.8%
96.5%
96.3%
96.4%
97.0%
95.2%
96.5%
96.2%
99.0%
96.4%
96.7%
n.a.
1Q 15
97.7%
96.4%
97.8%
97.6%
97.9%
96.9%
97.2%
97.5%
98.2%
98.8%
97.7%
97.9%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,897
$1,481
$1,713
$2,112
$2,655
$2,562
$2,056 $2,010 $1,785
$1,651
$1,899
$1,797
n.a.
2Q 13
$2,012
$1,583
$1,805
$2,258
$2,898
$2,511
$2,224 $2,073 $1,885
$1,751
$1,998
$2,270
n.a.
3Q 13
$2,094
$1,728
$1,882
$2,348
$3,004
$2,645
$2,215 $2,256 $1,932
$1,879
$2,079
$2,394
n.a.
4Q 13
$2,143
$1,250
$1,938
$2,403
$2,926
$2,763
$2,194 $2,250 $1,966
$1,851
$2,094
$2,647
n.a.
1Q 14
$2,163
$1,623
$1,967
$2,397
$2,942
$2,758
$2,297 $2,203 $1,978
$1,878
$2,117
$2,626
n.a.
2Q 14
$2,302
$1,936
$2,075
$2,559
$3,358
$2,915
$2,425 $2,372 $2,122
$1,949
$2,258
$2,754
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,408
$1,837
$2,203
$2,650
$3,197
$2,983
$2,551 $2,482 $2,222
$2,082
$2,351
$2,726
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,416
$1,720
$2,186
$2,691
$3,162
$3,170
$2,520 $2,452 $2,145
$2,074
$2,306
$2,914
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,473
$2,120
$2,215
$2,734
$3,482
$3,041
$2,639 $2,505 $2,243
$2,106
$2,402
$2,833
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.346
$3.499
$2.548
$2.169
$2.048
$2.514
$2.325 $2.465 $2.349
$2.103
$2.352
$2.077
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.485
$3.738
$2.671
$2.313
$2.236
$2.612
$2.515 $2.543 $2.492
$2.229
$2.481
$2.540
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.585
$4.080
$2.782
$2.403
$2.258
$2.751
$2.505 $2.767 $2.554
$2.378
$2.579
$2.679
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.617
$2.952
$2.835
$2.438
$2.200
$2.808
$2.480 $2.760 $2.621
$2.336
$2.596
$2.797
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.636
$3.832
$2.875
$2.433
$2.211
$2.804
$2.597 $2.702 $2.635
$2.370
$2.620
$2.774
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.803
$4.571
$3.028
$2.597
$2.524
$2.963
$2.741 $2.910 $2.814
$2.460
$2.791
$2.909
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.911
$4.338
$3.198
$2.670
$2.408
$3.032
$2.850 $3.044 $2.929
$2.635
$2.910
$2.917
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.899
$4.041
$3.149
$2.698
$2.381
$3.213
$2.815 $3.007 $2.847
$2.616
$2.851
$3.086
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.949
$4.838
$3.195
$2.747
$2.622
$3.124
$2.949 $3.073 $2.895
$2.665
$2.926
$3.056
n.a.
1Q 13
6.3%
14.5%
6.1%
6.5%
5.8%
1.6%
3.1%
8.6%
7.0%
7.6%
6.5%
-3.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.4%
11.0%
5.5%
7.1%
8.5%
-9.6%
10.8%
8.1%
5.3%
4.2%
6.4%
3.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
7.6%
15.8%
7.3%
7.9%
6.2%
-1.1%
8.3%
11.2%
6.3%
5.8%
7.7%
2.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
9.8%
-11.7%
9.5%
10.7%
5.3%
-0.1%
9.2%
12.0%
9.5%
9.8%
9.9%
5.1%
n.a.
1Q 14
10.7%
9.5%
11.0%
10.5%
7.7%
5.8%
11.7%
9.6%
10.8%
12.4%
10.5%
16.2%
n.a.
2Q 14
11.8%
22.3%
11.9%
11.5%
11.5%
12.5%
9.0%
14.4%
11.7%
11.8%
11.9%
11.6%
n.a.
3Q 14
12.6%
6.3%
14.5%
11.0%
5.3%
9.7%
15.0%
10.0%
14.0%
10.8%
12.5%
13.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
9.8%
48.2%
9.9%
9.6%
4.3%
10.7%
12.6%
9.0%
7.9%
11.9%
9.7%
11.2%
n.a.
1Q 15
11.9%
15.7%
10.5%
13.0%
17.7%
7.0%
12.3%
13.7%
11.8%
10.9%
12.4%
5.4%
n.a.
1Q 13
4.9%
13.6%
4.8%
4.8%
3.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
6.6%
6.5%
6.6%
5.0%
-7.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.8%
9.2%
5.0%
6.4%
8.0%
-11.4%
8.0%
7.9%
5.5%
4.3%
5.7%
5.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
6.2%
17.0%
5.8%
6.5%
6.2%
-2.6%
3.0%
10.2%
6.4%
4.6%
6.2%
6.5%
n.a.
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
9.5%
-6.1%
9.0%
10.5%
4.8%
-1.5%
4.3%
12.4%
10.3%
12.3%
9.2%
8.1%
REVENUE
1Q 14
10.5%
12.3%
10.8%
10.3%
11.0%
3.7%
12.4%
9.4%
9.8%
14.7%
10.5%
17.8%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
12.0%
25.1%
12.0%
11.6%
12.5%
11.9%
9.5%
13.9%
12.1%
13.0%
12.3%
9.0%
n.a.
3Q 14
13.3%
3.5%
15.3%
11.8%
4.8%
9.6%
19.5%
9.7%
13.8%
11.7%
13.2%
12.4%
n.a.
4Q 14
10.5%
47.9%
10.8%
10.2%
5.6%
10.5%
18.1%
8.3%
7.6%
11.6%
10.8%
8.9%
n.a.
1Q 15
13.4%
17.7%
12.0%
14.5%
16.8%
8.4%
14.1%
14.1%
14.6%
10.4%
13.7%
8.6%
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
74
83
0.0%
2.0%
1Q 13
16,910
8,780
51.9%
212
245
0.0%
2.0%
2Q 13
16,910
9,217
54.5%
98
0.0%
2.0%
3Q 13
16,910
9,167
54.2%
52.5%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
0
336
2Q 13
0
336
3Q 13
0
336
(168)
CHANGE
4Q 13
0
0
(162)
(49)
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
16,910
8,886
1Q 14
413
413
510
377
2.4%
2.4%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
17,323
8,695
50.2%
2Q 14
0
413
255
422
0.0%
2.4%
2Q 14
17,323
8,771
50.6%
3Q 14
0
413
(57)
531
0.0%
2.4%
3Q 14
17,323
10,006
57.8%
4Q 14
0
413
(149)
551
0.0%
2.4%
4Q 14
17,323
9,838
56.8%
1Q 15
97
97
286
343
0.6%
0.6%
1Q 15
17,420
8,804
50.5%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 58
3 SAN JOSE: SOUTH SUNNYVALE/CUPERTINO
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
9,647
6,158
63.8%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
0
284
2.4%
56
284
0
‐16
133
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
96.0%
‐0.1
‐0.8
97.5%
94.9%
96.5%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,705
$3.068
2.1%
8.2%
15.9%
‐0.1%
9.1%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
2.0%
7.4%
16.1%
2.9%
9.4%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
0
30
96.3%
0.3
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
15%
Submarket
Metro
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 59
3 SAN JOSE: SOUTH SUNNYVALE/CUPERTINO
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
3
3
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Biltmore Expansion
10159 S Blaney Av e, Cupertino, CA 95014
Nineteen800
19800 Vallco Pkwy, Cupertino, CA 95014
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Prometheus
Conv entional
80
3
09/13 09/14
KCR Dev elopment Inc
Conv entional
204
6
05/13 11/14
Total Units: 284
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94087, 95014, 95070
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 60
3 SAN JOSE: SOUTH SUNNYVALE/CUPERTINO
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
95.4%
98.4%
95.1%
95.4%
96.0%
94.8%
95.9%
96.2%
94.4%
97.6%
95.3%
96.5%
n.a.
2Q 13
97.0%
98.4%
96.8%
97.2%
96.0%
96.1%
97.5%
97.8%
96.6%
97.7%
96.9%
98.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
96.0%
97.2%
95.7%
96.2%
95.9%
95.1%
96.8%
97.1%
95.8%
95.1%
95.9%
97.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.0%
96.4%
96.0%
95.8%
97.9%
97.2%
96.3%
96.7%
95.5%
96.5%
95.9%
97.1%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.8%
97.2%
96.8%
96.7%
97.6%
93.5%
96.3%
97.9%
97.3%
96.3%
96.9%
96.0%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.2%
98.0%
97.1%
97.3%
97.5%
96.6%
96.3%
98.1%
97.4%
97.4%
97.3%
96.9%
n.a.
3Q 14
97.1%
98.0%
96.7%
97.2%
98.0%
98.2%
97.6%
97.8%
97.0%
95.7%
97.0%
97.8%
n.a.
4Q 14
96.1%
98.8%
96.2%
95.9%
96.0%
95.3%
94.5%
97.2%
96.5%
96.6%
96.1%
96.3%
n.a.
1Q 15
96.0%
94.3%
96.1%
96.0%
96.2%
97.0%
95.4%
96.0%
96.2%
95.1%
95.9%
96.8%
n.a.
1Q 13
$2,173
$1,500
$1,881
$2,407
$2,929
$2,764
$2,429 $1,975 $2,045
$2,120
$2,131
$2,511
n.a.
2Q 13
$2,349
$1,517
$2,000
$2,607
$3,328
$3,002
$2,652 $2,032 $2,254
$2,230
$2,286
$2,876
n.a.
3Q 13
$2,436
$1,749
$2,044
$2,724
$3,308
$3,139
$2,693 $2,049 $2,370
$2,284
$2,384
$2,875
n.a.
4Q 13
$2,459
$1,637
$2,056
$2,763
$3,384
$3,168
$2,709 $2,128 $2,365
$2,388
$2,413
$2,832
n.a.
1Q 14
$2,491
$1,857
$2,111
$2,781
$3,343
$3,218
$2,757 $2,186 $2,412
$2,304
$2,443
$2,885
n.a.
2Q 14
$2,570
$1,912
$2,199
$2,864
$3,365
$3,266
$2,853 $2,339 $2,494
$2,389
$2,529
$2,912
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,629
$1,789
$2,266
$2,940
$3,346
$3,354
$2,854 $2,426 $2,548
$2,515
$2,584
$3,014
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,655
$1,873
$2,258
$2,944
$3,431
$3,413
$2,768 $2,493 $2,562
$2,546
$2,607
$3,036
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,705
$1,877
$2,337
$2,984
$3,531
$3,405
$2,844 $2,529 $2,628
$2,564
$2,669
$2,998
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.504
$3.086
$2.635
$2.414
$2.396
$2.827
$2.515 $2.565 $2.461
$2.420
$2.482
$2.664
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.684
$3.122
$2.804
$2.600
$2.639
$3.070
$2.746 $2.640 $2.651
$2.545
$2.636
$3.052
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.779
$3.598
$2.860
$2.718
$2.643
$3.210
$2.788 $2.647 $2.768
$2.666
$2.744
$3.051
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.801
$3.367
$2.869
$2.755
$2.684
$3.240
$2.804 $2.764 $2.791
$2.640
$2.775
$3.005
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.861
$3.819
$2.964
$2.781
$2.705
$3.292
$2.855 $2.839 $2.851
$2.689
$2.835
$3.061
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.952
$3.934
$3.089
$2.860
$2.722
$3.340
$2.930 $3.037 $2.932
$2.788
$2.935
$3.090
n.a.
3Q 14
$3.021
$3.680
$3.184
$2.936
$2.707
$3.430
$2.931 $3.151 $2.995
$2.935
$2.998
$3.198
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.992
$3.636
$3.146
$2.914
$2.759
$3.483
$2.844 $3.154 $2.990
$2.815
$2.962
$3.221
n.a.
1Q 15
$3.068
$3.745
$3.253
$2.961
$2.863
$3.475
$2.921 $3.285 $3.052
$2.887
$3.053
$3.181
n.a.
1Q 13
4.9%
7.0%
5.5%
4.1%
7.2%
10.3%
2.7%
5.8%
4.1%
8.0%
5.0%
4.4%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.9%
7.7%
8.2%
4.5%
4.9%
3.9%
6.9%
6.1%
4.8%
9.4%
5.4%
8.8%
n.a.
3Q 13
5.9%
13.8%
6.9%
4.4%
10.0%
6.6%
4.6%
3.0%
7.5%
5.7%
6.2%
4.5%
n.a.
4Q 13
9.8%
13.9%
8.9%
10.3%
7.8%
9.9%
7.1%
11.6%
11.1%
9.0%
9.7%
9.8%
n.a.
1Q 14
13.2%
23.8%
11.5%
13.7%
13.6%
16.4%
13.5%
10.7%
13.6%
11.4%
12.9%
14.9%
n.a.
2Q 14
11.1%
26.0%
11.4%
10.8%
6.4%
8.8%
7.9%
15.1%
12.4%
9.3%
12.7%
1.3%
n.a.
3Q 14
9.1%
2.3%
12.1%
8.2%
3.6%
6.9%
7.3%
20.2%
7.9%
10.1%
9.7%
4.8%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.8%
11.9%
10.2%
6.7%
3.2%
9.8%
3.2%
15.2%
8.3%
6.6%
7.9%
7.2%
n.a.
1Q 15
8.2%
-0.3%
10.3%
7.5%
6.2%
7.0%
3.5%
15.7%
8.4%
9.7%
8.9%
3.9%
n.a.
1Q 13
4.7%
8.2%
5.5%
3.6%
8.3%
9.0%
3.0%
3.5%
3.4%
11.3%
4.9%
4.3%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.7%
9.3%
8.0%
4.4%
2.4%
2.1%
7.9%
6.5%
4.5%
8.4%
4.9%
11.5%
n.a.
3Q 13
4.8%
12.4%
5.8%
3.4%
7.4%
4.3%
4.7%
4.0%
6.1%
2.3%
4.7%
7.0%
n.a.
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
10.9%
13.1%
9.9%
11.7%
9.0%
11.0%
8.8%
12.8%
12.6%
8.1%
10.7%
11.9%
REVENUE
1Q 14
14.6%
22.6%
13.2%
15.0%
15.2%
15.1%
13.9%
12.4%
16.5%
10.1%
14.5%
14.4%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
11.3%
25.6%
11.7%
10.9%
7.9%
9.3%
6.7%
15.4%
13.2%
9.0%
13.1%
0.1%
n.a.
3Q 14
10.2%
3.1%
13.1%
9.2%
5.7%
10.0%
8.1%
20.9%
9.1%
10.7%
10.8%
5.2%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.9%
14.3%
10.4%
6.8%
1.3%
7.9%
1.4%
15.7%
9.3%
6.7%
8.1%
6.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
7.4%
-3.2%
9.6%
6.8%
4.8%
10.5%
2.6%
13.8%
7.3%
8.5%
7.9%
4.7%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
DEMAND
Ann
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
0
0
52
(12)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
9,423
6,073
64.4%
2Q 13
0
0
164
(15)
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
9,423
6,435
68.3%
3Q 13
0
0
(103)
(105)
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
0
0
(3)
105
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
1Q 14
0
0
81
132
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
9,423
6,360
67.5%
2Q 14
0
0
40
20
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
9,423
6,419
68.1%
68.0%
3Q 13
9,423
6,459
68.5%
4Q 13
9,423
6,315
67.0%
3Q 14
80
80
5
121
0.2%
0.2%
3Q 14
9,443
6,419
4Q 14
204
284
113
240
2.2%
2.4%
4Q 14
9,647
6,082
63.0%
1Q 15
0
284
(16)
133
0.0%
2.4%
1Q 15
9,647
6,158
63.8%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 61
4 SAN JOSE: SANTA CLARA
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET
15,423
8,438
54.7%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
0
133
0.9%
77
270
0
4
132
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
97.0%
0.1
0.1
97.8%
95.4%
96.9%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,437
$2.732
2.5%
10.9%
18.2%
3.5%
8.8%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
2.6%
11.0%
18.3%
3.6%
9.1%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
289
282
97.0%
0.0
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
13%
Submarket
Metro
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 62
4 SAN JOSE: SANTA CLARA
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
4
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Tuscany
3229 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA 95051
Developer
Citation Homes
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
133
4
06/13 11/14
Total Units: 133
Sub#
4
4
Properties Under Construction
Hearth I
2870 Kaiser Dr, Santa Clara, CA 95051
Villas on the Boulevard
2611 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA 95051
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Prometheus
Conv entional
289
6
08/13 06/15
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
186
4
10/14 09/16
Total Units: 475
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 95050, 95051, 95053, 95054
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 63
4 SAN JOSE: SANTA CLARA
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.4%
100.0%
96.6%
96.5%
91.6%
96.8%
95.6%
96.4%
96.8%
94.7%
96.4%
97.9%
94.7%
2Q 13
97.7%
100.0%
97.5%
97.9%
98.2%
98.2%
96.2%
98.2%
97.6%
97.6%
97.6%
97.7%
99.8%
3Q 13
97.1%
95.5%
97.4%
96.8%
96.0%
97.8%
93.6%
96.4%
98.3%
96.4%
96.9%
97.7%
99.3%
4Q 13
96.2%
95.5%
96.7%
95.8%
94.0%
96.6%
93.8%
97.4%
96.2%
93.8%
96.2%
96.1%
96.0%
1Q 14
96.9%
86.4%
97.0%
96.8%
97.3%
96.4%
97.0%
96.9%
97.4%
96.0%
96.9%
96.1%
98.8%
2Q 14
97.4%
90.9%
97.9%
96.8%
97.5%
97.6%
96.2%
98.6%
97.6%
92.9%
97.4%
97.2%
97.0%
3Q 14
97.8%
100.0%
97.8%
97.8%
99.3%
98.4%
97.0%
97.6%
98.1%
96.9%
97.8%
97.8%
98.1%
4Q 14
96.9%
100.0%
97.4%
96.4%
96.8%
97.0%
94.9%
97.6%
97.4%
94.9%
97.0%
96.9%
96.0%
1Q 15
97.0%
95.5%
97.0%
96.9%
97.2%
96.2%
96.6%
97.7%
96.8%
98.2%
97.2%
96.0%
94.0%
1Q 13
$2,057
$1,790
$1,845
$2,235
$2,849
$2,417
$2,057 $1,965 $1,861
$1,858
$1,994
$2,315
$2,578
2Q 13
$2,164
$1,798
$1,919
$2,383
$2,825
$2,544
$2,367 $2,073 $1,935
$1,974
$2,110
$2,383
$2,771
3Q 13
$2,223
$1,791
$1,998
$2,421
$2,940
$2,660
$2,209 $2,030 $2,039
$2,108
$2,140
$2,577
$2,924
4Q 13
$2,131
$1,844
$1,889
$2,348
$2,833
$2,409
$1,999 $2,141 $1,957
$2,014
$2,090
$2,218
$2,634
1Q 14
$2,178
$1,849
$1,945
$2,387
$2,850
$2,532
$2,172 $2,114 $1,996
$2,072
$2,123
$2,260
$2,915
2Q 14
$2,337
$1,716
$2,089
$2,564
$2,901
$2,617
$2,399 $2,395 $2,107
$2,070
$2,299
$2,330
$2,982
3Q 14
$2,385
$1,653
$2,122
$2,617
$3,122
$2,676
$2,377 $2,364 $2,207
$2,203
$2,331
$2,484
$3,084
4Q 14
$2,373
$2,051
$2,152
$2,556
$3,110
$2,682
$2,363 $2,372 $2,164
$2,260
$2,312
$2,577
$3,026
1Q 15
$2,437
$2,016
$2,195
$2,651
$3,139
$2,802
$2,442 $2,383 $2,221
$2,230
$2,377
$2,676
$2,982
1Q 13
$2.310
$3.902
$2.502
$2.164
$2.231
$2.401
$2.583 $2.348 $2.166
$2.041
$2.306
$2.324
$2.329
2Q 13
$2.433
$3.921
$2.608
$2.313
$2.217
$2.496
$2.971 $2.476 $2.246
$2.169
$2.439
$2.306
$2.502
3Q 13
$2.497
$3.905
$2.710
$2.344
$2.306
$2.642
$2.774 $2.424 $2.367
$2.317
$2.473
$2.587
$2.641
4Q 13
$2.393
$4.020
$2.562
$2.273
$2.218
$2.392
$2.510 $2.558 $2.277
$2.213
$2.417
$2.227
$2.379
1Q 14
$2.447
$4.032
$2.637
$2.309
$2.290
$2.488
$2.727 $2.525 $2.313
$2.277
$2.457
$2.269
$2.633
2Q 14
$2.623
$3.741
$2.835
$2.485
$2.321
$2.599
$3.012 $2.861 $2.443
$2.274
$2.655
$2.340
$2.694
3Q 14
$2.677
$3.603
$2.880
$2.536
$2.499
$2.658
$2.984 $2.824 $2.559
$2.421
$2.693
$2.494
$2.785
4Q 14
$2.655
$4.472
$2.911
$2.469
$2.481
$2.663
$2.967 $2.790 $2.504
$2.455
$2.657
$2.587
$2.733
1Q 15
$2.732
$4.397
$2.970
$2.563
$2.504
$2.783
$3.066 $2.802 $2.587
$2.450
$2.740
$2.687
$2.693
1Q 13
4.1%
12.8%
5.6%
2.5%
7.8%
0.9%
-1.5%
6.4%
8.4%
0.1%
4.8%
4.0%
-2.8%
2Q 13
4.0%
7.7%
4.1%
4.0%
1.5%
-0.4%
10.8%
0.7%
6.8%
3.5%
4.5%
-0.5%
3.9%
3Q 13
6.2%
60.7%
7.0%
5.5%
3.5%
5.0%
3.1%
2.8%
10.6%
6.9%
6.5%
5.6%
4.0%
4Q 13
4.0%
6.6%
3.1%
5.2%
0.6%
0.0%
-6.8%
7.7%
8.7%
7.4%
4.9%
-3.5%
1.8%
1Q 14
6.6%
3.3%
5.9%
7.6%
2.7%
4.2%
5.5%
7.5%
7.5%
11.6%
7.3%
-2.4%
13.1%
2Q 14
7.5%
-4.6%
8.3%
7.2%
3.7%
2.8%
1.4%
15.5%
8.8%
4.8%
8.9%
-8.2%
7.6%
3Q 14
7.2%
-7.7%
6.2%
8.3%
7.4%
0.6%
7.6%
16.5%
8.2%
4.5%
8.9%
-3.6%
5.4%
4Q 14
12.0%
11.3%
13.2%
10.6%
15.5%
11.3%
18.2%
10.6%
11.3%
11.6%
11.1%
16.2%
14.9%
1Q 15
10.9%
9.0%
13.0%
9.2%
9.2%
11.7%
12.4%
8.2%
11.4%
7.6%
10.6%
18.4%
2.3%
1Q 13
3.6%
12.8%
5.2%
2.0%
3.8%
0.5%
-1.4%
5.6%
8.0%
-1.2%
4.4%
5.5%
-7.4%
4.6%
2Q 13
4.4%
7.7%
4.4%
4.6%
1.6%
-0.9%
12.1%
1.2%
7.4%
4.5%
5.1%
-1.9%
3Q 13
7.0%
60.7%
7.7%
6.5%
1.8%
6.8%
1.9%
4.1%
11.1%
6.7%
7.1%
8.1%
4.0%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
4.8%
6.6%
4.0%
5.9%
1.1%
1.0%
-6.5%
8.6%
9.6%
7.0%
5.8%
-2.7%
0.8%
REVENUE
1Q 14
7.1%
-10.3%
6.3%
7.9%
8.4%
3.8%
6.9%
8.0%
8.1%
12.9%
7.8%
-4.2%
17.2%
CHANGE
2Q 14
7.2%
-13.7%
8.7%
6.1%
3.0%
2.2%
1.4%
15.9%
8.8%
0.1%
8.7%
-8.7%
4.8%
3Q 14
7.9%
-3.2%
6.6%
9.3%
10.7%
1.2%
11.0%
17.7%
8.0%
5.0%
9.8%
-3.5%
4.2%
4Q 14
12.7%
15.8%
13.9%
11.2%
18.3%
11.7%
19.3%
10.8%
12.5%
12.7%
11.9%
17.0%
14.9%
1Q 15
11.0%
18.1%
13.0%
9.3%
9.1%
11.5%
12.0%
9.0%
10.8%
9.8%
10.9%
18.3%
-2.5%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
0
166
(73)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
15,242
8,229
54.0%
2Q 13
0
0
215
72
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
15,242
8,118
53.3%
3Q 13
48
48
(53)
165
0.3%
0.3%
4Q 13
0
48
(147)
166
0.0%
0.3%
SAMPLE/
1Q 14
0
48
120
121
0.0%
0.3%
EXISTING UNITS
2Q 14
0
48
69
(10)
0.0%
0.3%
3Q 14
0
0
71
113
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 14
4Q 14
133
133
(9)
258
0.9%
0.9%
4Q 14
15,423
8,655
56.1%
1Q 15
0
133
4
132
0.0%
0.9%
1Q 15
15,423
8,438
54.7%
© 2015 MPF Research
Qtrly
Ann
Period
3Q 13
15,290
8,388
54.9%
4Q 13
15,290
8,229
53.8%
1Q 14
15,290
8,176
53.5%
2Q 14
15,290
8,410
55.0%
15,290
8,410
55.0%
BAY AREA | 64
5 SAN JOSE: WEST SAN JOSE/CAMPBELL
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET
19,536
8,331
42.6%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
168
380
2.0%
119
380
0
216
492
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
97.6%
0.4
0.7
97.7%
96.3%
97.1%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,204
$2.593
‐0.4%
10.7%
14.1%
‐3.6%
8.2%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.0%
11.4%
14.5%
‐1.3%
8.6%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
0
0
97.6%
0.0
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
16%
Submarket
Metro
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 65
5 SAN JOSE: WEST SAN JOSE/CAMPBELL
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
5
5
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Misora
388 Santana Row, San Jose, CA 95128
Revere
1725 S Bascom Av e, Campbell, CA 95008
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Federal Realty Inv estment Trust
Conv entional
212
5
03/12 04/14
Bay West Dev elopment
Conv entional
168
5
04/13 02/15
Total Units: 380
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 95008, 95117, 95128, 95129, 95130
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 66
5 SAN JOSE: WEST SAN JOSE/CAMPBELL
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
97.1%
96.2%
97.1%
97.1%
97.2%
96.8%
95.1%
96.8%
97.1%
97.6%
97.1%
97.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
97.1%
95.8%
97.0%
97.2%
97.6%
98.3%
96.6%
96.0%
96.8%
97.8%
97.0%
98.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.0%
95.5%
97.1%
96.9%
97.2%
96.4%
96.3%
97.0%
96.7%
98.1%
97.1%
93.7%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.8%
95.0%
96.9%
96.7%
98.0%
95.8%
95.4%
96.3%
96.9%
97.5%
96.8%
100.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.9%
96.0%
96.8%
97.2%
96.2%
96.9%
96.3%
97.9%
96.3%
98.2%
96.8%
99.6%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.4%
94.2%
97.2%
97.7%
98.2%
97.1%
95.7%
98.9%
97.4%
97.1%
97.3%
99.7%
n.a.
3Q 14
97.7%
97.1%
97.7%
97.9%
97.7%
98.4%
95.1%
97.7%
97.6%
98.5%
97.6%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
97.2%
96.2%
96.9%
97.6%
97.9%
99.1%
95.7%
97.2%
96.7%
97.7%
97.1%
100.0%
n.a.
1Q 15
97.6%
97.8%
97.4%
98.0%
96.1%
97.9%
100.0% 96.8%
97.6%
97.5%
97.5%
99.2%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,866
$1,421
$1,584
$2,095
$2,887
$3,299
$2,380 $1,790 $1,706
$1,590
$1,783
$3,597
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,916
$1,385
$1,619
$2,151
$3,022
$3,242
$2,358 $1,862 $1,731
$1,573
$1,834
$3,727
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,963
$1,487
$1,710
$2,174
$2,796
$2,960
$2,516 $1,979 $1,840
$1,654
$1,921
$3,305
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,891
$1,302
$1,674
$2,111
$2,613
$2,765
$2,424 $1,979 $1,778
$1,651
$1,873
$3,170
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,961
$1,320
$1,704
$2,205
$2,794
$3,101
$2,508 $2,013 $1,808
$1,620
$1,904
$3,785
n.a.
2Q 14
$2,039
$1,569
$1,754
$2,298
$2,857
$3,099
$2,611 $2,034 $1,899
$1,655
$1,971
$3,535
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,126
$1,592
$1,852
$2,353
$3,059
$3,340
$2,810 $2,051 $1,979
$1,710
$2,062
$3,591
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,198
$1,674
$1,912
$2,409
$3,327
$3,281
$2,670 $2,148 $2,054
$1,846
$2,123
$3,886
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,204
$1,643
$1,907
$2,457
$3,402
$3,291
$2,707 $2,171 $2,027
$1,872
$2,131
$3,818
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.191
$3.438
$2.310
$2.084
$2.081
$2.613
$2.535 $2.088 $2.134
$2.025
$2.142
$2.870
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.243
$3.427
$2.357
$2.138
$2.143
$2.657
$2.511 $2.124 $2.182
$2.038
$2.194
$2.974
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.298
$3.635
$2.487
$2.168
$2.002
$2.407
$2.679 $2.289 $2.307
$2.107
$2.287
$2.543
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.264
$3.185
$2.446
$2.136
$1.940
$2.319
$2.581 $2.322 $2.245
$2.160
$2.254
$2.770
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.318
$3.238
$2.483
$2.213
$2.000
$2.522
$2.671 $2.329 $2.295
$2.104
$2.288
$2.912
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.395
$3.840
$2.550
$2.299
$2.033
$2.540
$2.781 $2.378 $2.407
$2.127
$2.366
$2.821
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.488
$3.896
$2.690
$2.348
$2.177
$2.737
$2.993 $2.362 $2.492
$2.198
$2.463
$2.865
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.578
$4.097
$2.793
$2.403
$2.368
$2.774
$2.844 $2.511 $2.585
$2.364
$2.543
$3.100
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.593
$3.988
$2.772
$2.450
$2.324
$2.783
$2.883 $2.501 $2.568
$2.463
$2.562
$3.046
n.a.
1Q 13
9.5%
17.4%
8.6%
11.0%
5.3%
13.4%
19.4%
1.8%
8.5%
7.9%
9.3%
10.9%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.2%
8.7%
6.9%
7.3%
-4.2%
4.0%
10.9%
4.0%
7.4%
4.8%
6.6%
2.5%
n.a.
3Q 13
8.2%
20.4%
11.4%
7.2%
-6.7%
-1.4%
13.2%
14.6%
9.6%
7.9%
8.6%
2.1%
n.a.
4Q 13
8.2%
7.6%
9.1%
8.3%
2.7%
-8.2%
26.7%
14.5%
8.8%
8.4%
8.3%
4.7%
n.a.
1Q 14
5.9%
-2.8%
8.2%
5.8%
-2.6%
1.5%
5.4%
11.3%
7.0%
3.6%
6.6%
-2.7%
n.a.
2Q 14
6.1%
13.7%
8.1%
6.3%
-5.0%
-4.4%
10.7%
11.4%
9.1%
5.5%
7.2%
-5.1%
n.a.
3Q 14
8.2%
6.8%
8.3%
8.3%
7.4%
12.7%
11.7%
3.1%
9.1%
3.7%
8.0%
11.4%
n.a.
4Q 14
14.1%
26.7%
14.3%
12.2%
19.6%
15.4%
10.2%
7.6%
16.4%
12.0%
13.8%
23.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
10.7%
20.6%
11.1%
9.5%
12.8%
7.0%
7.9%
7.1%
12.8%
12.7%
11.4%
0.8%
n.a.
1Q 13
9.4%
16.4%
8.7%
10.6%
5.1%
12.7%
16.2%
0.9%
8.7%
8.3%
9.2%
9.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.8%
7.4%
6.9%
6.3%
-4.5%
3.4%
9.5%
2.8%
6.7%
5.5%
6.2%
0.6%
n.a.
3Q 13
7.9%
18.5%
10.8%
7.4%
-7.9%
-1.7%
13.2%
15.4%
8.8%
8.3%
8.4%
-1.2%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
8.7%
7.2%
9.9%
8.4%
4.4%
-8.0%
27.3%
14.7%
9.4%
9.0%
8.9%
6.6%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
5.7%
-3.0%
7.9%
5.9%
-3.6%
1.6%
6.6%
12.4%
6.2%
4.2%
6.3%
-0.1%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
6.4%
12.1%
8.3%
6.8%
-4.4%
-5.6%
9.8%
14.3%
9.7%
4.8%
7.5%
-3.5%
n.a.
3Q 14
8.9%
8.4%
8.9%
9.3%
7.9%
14.7%
10.5%
3.8%
10.0%
4.1%
8.5%
17.7%
n.a.
4Q 14
14.5%
27.9%
14.3%
13.1%
19.5%
18.7%
10.5%
8.5%
16.2%
12.2%
14.1%
23.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
11.4%
22.4%
11.7%
10.3%
12.7%
8.0%
11.6%
6.0%
14.1%
12.0%
12.1%
0.4%
n.a.
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Qtrly
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
41.7%
CHANGE
1Q 13
0
0
148
(33)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
18,952
7,905
2Q 13
147
147
156
57
0.8%
0.8%
2Q 13
19,099
8,417
44.1%
3Q 13
0
147
(12)
80
0.0%
0.8%
3Q 13
19,099
8,356
43.8%
4Q 13
84
231
44
324
0.4%
1.2%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
19,183
7,912
41.2%
1Q 14
0
231
(4)
175
-0.1%
1.1%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
19,156
8,343
43.6%
2Q 14
212
296
303
322
1.1%
1.4%
2Q 14
19,368
8,305
42.9%
3Q 14
0
296
68
411
0.0%
1.4%
3Q 14
19,368
8,618
44.5%
4Q 14
0
212
(96)
273
0.0%
1.0%
4Q 14
19,368
8,530
44.0%
1Q 15
168
380
216
492
0.9%
2.0%
1Q 15
19,536
8,331
42.6%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 67
6 SAN JOSE: SOUTH SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
17,883
9,904
55.4%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
0
325
1.9%
42
325
0
‐55
171
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
95.4%
‐0.3
‐0.8
98.0%
95.4%
96.8%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,134
$2.305
0.2%
8.0%
13.1%
2.5%
7.3%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐0.1%
7.2%
13.7%
4.0%
7.9%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
0
169
96.4%
1.0
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
12%
Submarket
Metro
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 68
6 SAN JOSE: SOUTH SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
6
6
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Vivere II
135 Riv iera Dr, Los Gatos, CA 95032
Anton La Moraga
5822 Charlotte Dr, San Jose, CA 95123
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
The Sobrato Organization
Conv entional
50
3
08/13 11/14
St Anton Partners
Conv entional
275
2
10/12 12/14
Total Units: 325
Sub#
6
Properties Under Construction
ASCENT
5805 Charlotte Dr, San Jose, CA 95123
Developer
Shea Properties/Iv anhoé Cambridge
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
650
5
09/13 05/16
Total Units: 650
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 95013, 95020, 95023, 95030, 95032, 95037, 95043, 95045, 95046, 95118, 95119, 95120, 95123, 95124, 95136, 95139, 95141
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 69
6 SAN JOSE: SOUTH SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.6%
98.8%
96.5%
96.7%
96.8%
97.8%
97.2%
94.7%
97.0%
97.1%
96.6%
98.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.7%
98.2%
96.9%
96.5%
97.1%
97.0%
96.9%
96.2%
97.1%
95.3%
96.7%
97.9%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.3%
98.2%
96.9%
97.6%
97.6%
97.3%
97.5%
96.9%
97.8%
97.0%
97.4%
95.8%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.6%
97.8%
96.3%
96.6%
97.3%
95.7%
96.8%
96.8%
97.5%
93.9%
96.7%
94.8%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.2%
95.6%
96.3%
96.0%
96.7%
95.5%
97.4%
95.9%
96.5%
95.0%
96.3%
93.8%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.1%
98.2%
96.8%
97.2%
97.8%
97.0%
97.9%
96.6%
97.3%
97.2%
97.3%
94.5%
n.a.
3Q 14
98.0%
99.1%
97.7%
98.0%
98.6%
98.4%
97.4%
97.1%
98.7%
98.7%
98.0%
97.5%
n.a.
4Q 14
95.7%
99.1%
95.3%
96.1%
94.9%
92.5%
96.9%
97.0%
97.3%
94.4%
95.8%
93.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
95.4%
93.3%
95.0%
95.8%
95.1%
93.1%
97.1%
96.2%
96.1%
96.5%
95.5%
93.8%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,791
$1,152
$1,555
$1,924
$2,007
$2,088
$1,730 $1,785 $1,532
$1,980
$1,771
$2,101
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,829
$1,270
$1,547
$1,993
$2,049
$2,082
$1,809 $1,828 $1,587
$1,958
$1,819
$2,329
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,894
$1,362
$1,617
$2,056
$2,113
$2,214
$1,825 $1,857 $1,659
$2,158
$1,879
$2,618
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,858
$1,196
$1,611
$1,995
$2,092
$2,029
$1,713 $1,924 $1,663
$2,137
$1,840
$2,133
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,938
$1,748
$1,692
$2,079
$2,102
$2,192
$1,818 $1,940 $1,686
$2,116
$1,919
$2,231
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,958
$1,384
$1,708
$2,113
$2,148
$2,203
$1,857 $1,983 $1,697
$2,152
$1,938
$2,275
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,033
$1,466
$1,728
$2,231
$2,211
$2,305
$1,930 $2,020 $1,802
$2,273
$2,012
$2,384
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,086
$1,556
$1,814
$2,231
$2,374
$2,372
$1,950 $2,093 $1,812
$2,445
$2,063
$2,465
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,134
$2,058
$1,885
$2,262
$2,343
$2,368
$2,049 $2,097 $1,882
$2,291
$2,117
$2,389
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.978
$2.540
$2.285
$1.919
$1.652
$2.105
$1.887 $2.068 $1.787
$2.157
$1.971
$2.074
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.020
$2.769
$2.280
$1.983
$1.688
$2.083
$1.973 $2.123 $1.851
$2.133
$2.018
$2.095
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.094
$2.969
$2.381
$2.046
$1.741
$2.226
$1.975 $2.156 $1.944
$2.349
$2.087
$2.355
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.047
$2.745
$2.365
$1.982
$1.720
$2.041
$1.865 $2.234 $1.933
$2.326
$2.042
$2.106
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.118
$3.403
$2.464
$2.059
$1.719
$2.214
$1.965 $2.253 $1.911
$2.389
$2.112
$2.202
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.154
$3.017
$2.489
$2.090
$1.757
$2.225
$2.007 $2.304 $1.984
$2.342
$2.148
$2.246
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.246
$3.195
$2.523
$2.220
$1.808
$2.328
$2.087 $2.347 $2.132
$2.474
$2.239
$2.353
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.284
$3.393
$2.641
$2.210
$1.885
$2.357
$2.103 $2.431 $2.143
$2.528
$2.274
$2.433
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.305
$4.006
$2.707
$2.232
$1.861
$2.354
$2.156 $2.435 $2.152
$2.494
$2.301
$2.359
n.a.
1Q 13
8.4%
8.2%
10.5%
7.8%
6.4%
11.8%
7.6%
8.4%
4.9%
13.8%
8.3%
13.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.5%
1.2%
3.9%
6.2%
6.8%
1.2%
6.9%
8.4%
6.9%
2.4%
5.6%
1.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
4.3%
3.8%
3.0%
5.0%
4.3%
0.7%
7.3%
2.9%
7.2%
5.1%
4.2%
5.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
6.2%
12.4%
8.8%
5.4%
3.2%
4.4%
4.2%
8.3%
6.8%
7.6%
6.4%
-1.3%
n.a.
1Q 14
6.4%
9.6%
6.4%
7.3%
3.3%
6.7%
3.8%
8.4%
6.7%
3.2%
6.5%
6.2%
n.a.
2Q 14
6.1%
8.9%
9.2%
5.0%
3.3%
6.3%
1.3%
8.5%
7.2%
6.1%
6.2%
3.6%
n.a.
3Q 14
7.4%
7.6%
5.9%
9.1%
3.5%
7.1%
5.0%
8.8%
8.4%
5.3%
7.6%
-2.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
10.2%
10.9%
10.1%
10.7%
8.7%
11.1%
10.8%
8.8%
10.6%
9.2%
9.8%
15.6%
n.a.
1Q 15
8.0%
17.7%
8.3%
7.9%
7.1%
6.4%
6.0%
8.1%
12.4%
7.4%
8.0%
7.1%
n.a.
1Q 13
7.7%
10.7%
10.1%
7.2%
4.7%
13.1%
7.7%
4.9%
4.7%
12.6%
7.5%
16.4%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.1%
4.0%
4.9%
6.6%
7.1%
2.3%
7.8%
9.2%
7.2%
-0.8%
6.2%
1.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
4.0%
7.5%
1.9%
5.6%
3.2%
0.0%
7.2%
1.9%
7.7%
8.6%
4.0%
3.7%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.0%
11.1%
8.2%
5.5%
3.0%
2.8%
4.3%
8.9%
7.3%
4.5%
6.3%
-3.9%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
6.0%
6.4%
6.2%
6.6%
3.2%
4.4%
4.0%
9.6%
6.2%
1.1%
6.2%
2.0%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
6.5%
8.9%
9.1%
5.7%
4.0%
6.3%
2.3%
8.9%
7.4%
8.0%
6.8%
0.2%
n.a.
3Q 14
8.1%
8.5%
6.7%
9.5%
4.5%
8.2%
4.9%
9.0%
9.3%
7.0%
8.2%
-0.3%
n.a.
4Q 14
9.3%
12.2%
9.1%
10.2%
6.3%
7.9%
10.9%
9.0%
10.4%
9.7%
8.9%
14.6%
n.a.
1Q 15
7.2%
15.4%
7.0%
7.7%
5.5%
4.0%
5.7%
8.4%
12.0%
8.9%
7.2%
7.1%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
0
(30)
(118)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
17,558
9,822
55.9%
2Q 13
0
0
14
112
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
17,558
9,760
55.6%
3Q 13
0
0
99
(42)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
17,558
9,643
54.9%
4Q 13
0
0
(135)
(42)
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
17,558
9,624
54.8%
1Q 14
0
0
(67)
(80)
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
17,558
9,779
55.7%
2Q 14
0
0
172
73
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
17,558
10,154
57.8%
3Q 14
0
0
140
111
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 14
17,558
10,406
59.3%
4Q 14
325
325
(82)
163
1.9%
1.9%
4Q 14
17,883
10,380
58.0%
1Q 15
0
325
(55)
171
0.0%
1.9%
1Q 15
17,883
9,904
55.4%
© 2015 MPF Research
Qtrly
Ann
Period
BAY AREA | 70
7 SAN JOSE: CENTRAL SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
21,758
6,146
28.2%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
218
563
2.3%
316
635
0
374
604
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
98.2%
1.2
0.6
98.2%
96.0%
97.2%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,187
$2.406
1.0%
8.4%
13.5%
‐1.1%
7.3%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
2.2%
9.0%
13.3%
‐0.2%
7.8%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
20%
Submarket
Metro
15%
10%
5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
927
721
97.4%
‐0.8
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 71
7 SAN JOSE: CENTRAL SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
7
7
7
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Avalon Morrison Park
899 Morrison Park Dr, San Jose, CA 95126
Buena Vista Midtown
1535 W San Carlos St, San Jose, CA 95126
Meridian at Midtown
1432 W San Carlos St, San Jose, CA 95126
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Av alonBay Communities Inc
Conv entional
250
4
09/12 06/14
The Core Companies
Senior
95
4
05/13 09/14
Republic Family of Companies
Conv entional
218
5
10/12 03/15
Total Units: 563
Sub#
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
Properties Under Construction
Marquis
817 N 10th St, San Jose, CA 95112
One South Market
1 S Market St, San Jose, CA 95113
Centerra
90 Notre Dame Av e, San Jose, CA 95113
Donner Lofts
156 E Saint John St, San Jose, CA 95112
27 North 6th Street
27 N 6th St, San Jose, CA 95112
Pierce (The)
60 Pierce Av e, San Jose, CA 95110
Century Center Towers
1733 N 1st St, San Jose, CA 95112
Silvery Towers
190 W Saint James St, San Jose, CA 95110
Developer
The Core Companies/Republic
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
166
4
10/13 06/15
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
312
23
06/13 07/15
Simeon Residential Properties
Conv entional
347
21
08/13 08/15
MidPen Housing Corp
Affordable
102
7
11/14 12/15
Symphony Dev elopment
Student
119
7
08/14 07/16
SARES-REGIS Group
Conv entional
232
7
05/14 08/16
Conv entional
376
12
08/14 11/16
Conv entional
643
20
03/15 09/17
Family of Companies
Essex Property Trust Inc/Barry
Swenson Builder
Full Power Properties LLC
Total Units: 2,297
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 95110, 95112, 95113, 95125, 95126, 95192
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 72
7 SAN JOSE: CENTRAL SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.8%
99.6%
96.3%
96.9%
95.6%
96.2%
98.7%
96.6%
97.3%
97.9%
97.3%
96.8%
94.6%
2Q 13
97.3%
97.9%
96.8%
97.6%
97.4%
96.9%
97.0%
96.4%
98.6%
98.5%
97.6%
97.5%
95.1%
3Q 13
97.9%
99.5%
97.9%
97.4%
99.5%
98.1%
98.3%
99.7%
95.9%
98.8%
97.6%
98.1%
99.6%
4Q 13
97.2%
99.5%
97.1%
96.8%
97.3%
97.0%
96.9%
98.2%
96.3%
99.8%
97.1%
96.8%
98.4%
1Q 14
97.6%
99.1%
97.5%
97.7%
95.7%
97.4%
97.7%
97.3%
97.9%
98.3%
98.1%
97.7%
94.3%
2Q 14
97.3%
99.5%
97.7%
97.8%
90.5%
96.3%
98.2% 100.0%
98.2%
99.8%
98.5%
95.4%
96.1%
3Q 14
97.5%
99.5%
97.2%
98.0%
94.0%
97.1%
98.3%
97.3%
97.9%
98.8%
97.8%
96.7%
98.4%
4Q 14
97.0%
99.3%
96.9%
96.7%
96.1%
97.1%
97.2%
93.8%
96.6%
98.2%
97.5%
97.1%
92.6%
1Q 15
98.2%
98.6%
97.9%
98.3%
99.2%
99.1%
96.7%
92.4%
96.8%
100.0%
98.3%
98.9%
95.7%
1Q 13
$1,910
$1,115
$1,709
$2,113
$3,257
$2,064
$2,059 $1,558 $1,664
$1,407
$1,744
$2,028
$2,413
2Q 13
$1,944
$1,016
$1,720
$2,144
$3,056
$2,039
$2,176 $1,675 $1,691
$1,520
$1,848
$1,928
$2,507
3Q 13
$1,970
$1,065
$1,810
$2,171
$3,181
$2,054
$2,167 $1,779 $1,784
$1,455
$1,812
$2,097
$2,702
4Q 13
$1,979
$1,061
$1,774
$2,175
$3,284
$2,060
$2,159 $1,959 $1,740
$1,508
$1,869
$2,072
$2,446
1Q 14
$2,029
$1,071
$1,844
$2,241
$3,123
$2,116
$2,282 $1,747 $1,813
$1,581
$1,944
$2,008
$2,661
2Q 14
$2,025
$1,085
$1,849
$2,211
$3,092
$2,084
$2,292 $1,760 $1,860
$1,605
$1,920
$2,033
$2,746
3Q 14
$2,101
$1,075
$1,940
$2,327
$2,958
$2,133
$2,483 $1,896 $1,948
$1,622
$2,012
$2,095
$2,763
4Q 14
$2,128
$1,072
$1,961
$2,349
$3,151
$2,143
$2,539 $2,127 $1,948
$1,613
$2,010
$2,123
$2,990
1Q 15
$2,187
$1,225
$1,934
$2,386
$3,245
$2,239
$2,516 $2,279 $1,939
$1,565
$2,053
$2,202
$2,977
1Q 13
$2.127
$2.751
$2.258
$2.012
$1.939
$2.153
$2.274 $2.002 $2.045
$1.948
$2.139
$2.132
$2.078
2Q 13
$2.122
$2.312
$2.276
$2.040
$1.939
$2.111
$2.331 $2.082 $2.077
$1.928
$2.132
$2.083
$2.158
3Q 13
$2.226
$2.749
$2.403
$2.080
$2.067
$2.226
$2.322 $2.287 $2.191
$2.043
$2.169
$2.265
$2.431
4Q 13
$2.159
$2.414
$2.329
$2.042
$2.012
$2.139
$2.322 $2.434 $2.138
$1.868
$2.131
$2.204
$2.200
1Q 14
$2.263
$2.437
$2.477
$2.127
$2.086
$2.261
$2.454 $2.245 $2.214
$2.005
$2.232
$2.278
$2.393
2Q 14
$2.293
$2.800
$2.518
$2.133
$2.115
$2.289
$2.465 $2.263 $2.286
$2.036
$2.287
$2.243
$2.470
3Q 14
$2.368
$2.776
$2.636
$2.228
$2.026
$2.331
$2.671 $2.438 $2.393
$2.058
$2.396
$2.287
$2.485
4Q 14
$2.403
$2.767
$2.651
$2.250
$2.146
$2.333
$2.720 $2.735 $2.394
$2.265
$2.402
$2.314
$2.689
1Q 15
$2.406
$2.604
$2.617
$2.288
$2.209
$2.349
$2.636 $2.929 $2.382
$2.233
$2.387
$2.351
$2.677
1Q 13
7.3%
6.5%
8.3%
7.4%
4.5%
5.7%
13.1%
n.a.
9.7%
8.5%
8.7%
8.3%
0.2%
2Q 13
3.5%
-3.3%
1.8%
5.6%
2.7%
1.2%
10.6%
0.5%
5.9%
6.4%
7.2%
-0.2%
-2.5%
3Q 13
6.0%
8.5%
7.6%
5.3%
1.9%
4.9%
6.4%
16.6%
7.8%
5.3%
4.2%
9.0%
7.2%
4Q 13
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
4.8%
2.3%
2.8%
4.9%
16.9%
5.0%
5.9%
4.5%
4.3%
2.1%
1Q 14
8.1%
2.2%
10.1%
7.6%
4.2%
7.2%
11.4%
12.1%
8.6%
7.2%
9.6%
3.5%
12.3%
10.4%
2Q 14
8.5%
7.0%
12.5%
6.5%
3.9%
8.5%
7.1%
17.2%
10.0%
5.6%
7.5%
10.3%
3Q 14
9.4%
1.0%
12.0%
10.5%
-3.5%
8.0%
16.9%
6.6%
9.2%
6.1%
12.9%
5.3%
2.2%
4Q 14
13.5%
8.9%
14.9%
12.6%
13.9%
12.9%
16.1%
21.8%
11.9%
8.6%
12.3%
11.9%
22.2%
1Q 15
8.4%
7.1%
7.5%
9.3%
8.6%
7.5%
6.5%
30.5%
7.8%
7.4%
7.5%
8.8%
11.9%
1Q 13
7.2%
6.5%
7.7%
7.8%
4.4%
5.4%
14.9%
n.a.
9.0%
8.5%
8.4%
8.4%
3.0%
2Q 13
3.2%
-5.0%
1.2%
5.9%
2.1%
0.5%
9.9%
-1.7%
7.7%
7.2%
7.9%
-0.7%
-7.4%
3Q 13
6.7%
8.9%
8.8%
5.6%
3.7%
6.1%
7.9%
20.4%
6.2%
5.2%
4.1%
11.2%
9.9%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
5.3%
4.6%
5.0%
5.8%
4.4%
4.2%
6.3%
18.7%
5.2%
7.8%
5.5%
4.8%
5.9%
REVENUE
1Q 14
8.9%
1.7%
11.3%
8.4%
4.3%
8.4%
10.4%
12.8%
9.2%
7.6%
10.4%
4.4%
12.0%
CHANGE
2Q 14
8.5%
8.6%
13.4%
6.7%
-3.0%
7.9%
8.3%
20.8%
9.6%
6.9%
8.4%
8.2%
11.4%
3Q 14
9.0%
1.0%
11.3%
11.1%
-9.0%
7.0%
16.9%
4.2%
11.2%
6.1%
13.1%
3.9%
1.0%
4Q 14
13.3%
8.7%
14.7%
12.5%
12.7%
13.0%
16.4%
17.4%
12.2%
7.0%
12.7%
12.2%
16.4%
1Q 15
9.0%
6.6%
7.9%
9.9%
12.1%
9.2%
5.5%
25.6%
6.7%
9.1%
7.7%
10.0%
13.3%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 13
0
486
180
461
0.0%
2.4%
1Q 13
20,981
5,438
25.9%
2Q 13
0
486
113
423
0.0%
2.4%
2Q 13
20,981
5,980
28.5%
3Q 13
0
0
129
163
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
20,981
6,124
29.2%
4Q 13
290
290
118
547
1.4%
1.4%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
21,271
5,694
26.8%
1Q 14
0
290
92
459
0.0%
1.4%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
21,271
5,852
27.5%
2Q 14
250
540
193
532
1.2%
2.6%
2Q 14
21,521
6,482
30.1%
3Q 14
95
635
128
533
0.4%
3.0%
3Q 14
21,616
6,700
31.0%
4Q 14
0
345
(108)
306
0.0%
1.6%
4Q 14
21,616
6,675
30.9%
1Q 15
218
563
374
604
0.7%
2.3%
1Q 15
21,758
6,146
28.2%
© 2015 MPF Research
CHANGE
BAY AREA | 73
8 SAN JOSE: EAST SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
12,075
6,843
56.7%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
0
75
0.6%
157
455
0
79
111
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
98.6%
0.7
0.3
99.1%
96.8%
98.2%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$1,560
$1.921
‐0.3%
5.1%
8.8%
‐5.6%
5.0%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.4%
5.4%
10.4%
‐4.4%
5.7%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
0
‐40
98.3%
‐0.3
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
12%
Submarket
Metro
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 74
8 SAN JOSE: EAST SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
8
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Ford Road Plaza
215 Ford Rd, San Jose, CA 95138
Developer
Eden Housing Inc
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Affordable
75
3
03/13 07/14
Total Units: 75
Sub#
8
Properties Under Construction
LINQ at Berryessa Station
670 N King Rd, San Jose, CA 95133
Developer
The Core Companies/Republic
Family of Companies
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
230
5
09/14 05/16
Total Units: 230
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 95111, 95116, 95121, 95122, 95127, 95133, 95135, 95138, 95140, 95148
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 75
8 SAN JOSE: EAST SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
97.9%
99.0%
97.0%
98.3%
98.6%
99.3%
96.0%
98.7%
96.7%
98.8%
97.7%
100.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
98.2%
98.5%
97.9%
98.5%
98.1%
99.4%
99.1%
98.1%
97.5%
98.6%
98.1%
99.8%
n.a.
3Q 13
98.8%
99.2%
98.6%
99.0%
98.4%
98.9%
100.0% 98.6%
98.3%
99.7%
98.7%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 13
98.5%
97.9%
98.7%
98.5%
98.4%
99.3%
96.4%
97.4%
98.8%
98.5%
98.5%
99.4%
n.a.
1Q 14
98.3%
98.9%
98.3%
98.1%
98.2%
99.7%
96.0%
96.6%
98.1%
99.1%
98.1%
100.0%
n.a.
2Q 14
99.1%
100.0%
99.0%
99.1%
98.9%
99.4%
98.7%
99.0%
98.8%
99.4%
99.0%
100.0%
n.a.
3Q 14
98.6%
99.2%
98.2%
98.9%
98.1%
99.5%
98.7%
99.0%
97.4%
99.6%
98.5%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
97.9%
98.7%
97.6%
97.8%
98.6%
99.1%
98.2%
97.7%
97.2%
98.1%
97.7%
100.0%
n.a.
1Q 15
98.6%
99.5%
98.4%
98.8%
97.9%
99.7%
93.8%
99.6%
97.6%
99.5%
98.5%
100.0%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,380
$916
$1,221
$1,488
$1,692
$1,318
$1,814 $1,593 $1,259
$1,466
$1,397
$1,176
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,404
$930
$1,236
$1,531
$1,729
$1,280
$1,964 $1,635 $1,303
$1,473
$1,420
$1,197
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,449
$1,021
$1,290
$1,569
$1,753
$1,288
$1,918 $1,716 $1,359
$1,521
$1,473
$1,132
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,460
$1,051
$1,301
$1,577
$1,761
$1,334
$2,054 $1,719 $1,347
$1,523
$1,485
$1,132
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,493
$1,060
$1,360
$1,597
$1,768
$1,337
$1,980 $1,764 $1,406
$1,521
$1,522
$1,132
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,508
$1,053
$1,351
$1,639
$1,774
$1,312
$2,132 $1,812 $1,423
$1,530
$1,538
$1,131
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,538
$1,071
$1,384
$1,657
$1,826
$1,321
$2,269 $1,889 $1,435
$1,552
$1,571
$1,131
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,554
$1,103
$1,405
$1,677
$1,834
$1,333
$2,310 $1,956 $1,448
$1,552
$1,587
$1,131
n.a.
1Q 15
$1,560
$1,083
$1,422
$1,670
$1,846
$1,370
$2,209 $1,916 $1,464
$1,547
$1,594
$1,131
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.692
$2.287
$1.934
$1.596
$1.460
$1.432
$1.964 $1.984 $1.789
$1.513
$1.728
$1.296
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.738
$2.232
$1.966
$1.650
$1.491
$1.472
$2.127 $2.032 $1.851
$1.521
$1.774
$1.319
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.793
$2.444
$2.048
$1.688
$1.512
$1.456
$2.078 $2.133 $1.933
$1.570
$1.840
$1.247
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.805
$2.515
$2.068
$1.697
$1.519
$1.487
$2.225 $2.136 $1.922
$1.572
$1.855
$1.247
n.a.
1Q 14
$1.837
$2.519
$2.141
$1.713
$1.518
$1.497
$2.144 $2.192 $1.993
$1.570
$1.890
$1.247
n.a.
2Q 14
$1.854
$2.521
$2.126
$1.756
$1.530
$1.483
$2.309 $2.252 $2.012
$1.579
$1.909
$1.246
n.a.
3Q 14
$1.888
$2.563
$2.181
$1.776
$1.576
$1.493
$2.458 $2.348 $2.031
$1.602
$1.946
$1.246
n.a.
4Q 14
$1.925
$2.641
$2.230
$1.803
$1.582
$1.507
$2.502 $2.430 $2.067
$1.602
$1.984
$1.246
n.a.
1Q 15
$1.921
$2.592
$2.240
$1.792
$1.592
$1.548
$2.393 $2.381 $2.075
$1.597
$1.981
$1.246
n.a.
1Q 13
2.0%
9.1%
3.0%
1.3%
1.3%
-1.3%
0.4%
7.0%
3.1%
-1.0%
2.2%
-0.4%
n.a.
2Q 13
3.9%
16.9%
5.2%
2.3%
3.4%
2.4%
-0.6%
8.7%
6.2%
-2.8%
4.1%
0.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
4.8%
24.2%
6.0%
3.2%
3.6%
0.0%
0.1%
9.1%
7.7%
-0.2%
5.5%
-5.3%
n.a.
4Q 13
6.4%
17.7%
5.8%
6.9%
4.0%
7.3%
14.1%
8.5%
4.9%
5.5%
6.4%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
7.4%
20.0%
9.6%
6.3%
2.8%
2.6%
9.1%
10.9%
9.4%
3.7%
8.1%
-3.7%
n.a.
2Q 14
6.3%
12.6%
7.5%
6.1%
2.6%
1.5%
8.6%
10.8%
7.3%
3.8%
7.1%
-5.5%
n.a.
3Q 14
5.9%
4.9%
7.2%
5.5%
4.2%
2.5%
18.3%
10.1%
5.7%
2.1%
6.3%
-0.1%
n.a.
4Q 14
6.7%
5.0%
8.4%
6.4%
4.1%
0.4%
12.5%
13.8%
7.5%
1.9%
7.2%
-0.1%
n.a.
1Q 15
5.1%
3.9%
5.1%
4.8%
6.4%
5.2%
11.6%
8.6%
4.1%
1.7%
5.4%
-0.1%
n.a.
1Q 13
1.7%
9.2%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
-0.6%
0.0%
7.8%
1.7%
-0.8%
1.7%
1.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
3.5%
16.4%
4.5%
2.1%
3.0%
2.4%
0.3%
8.8%
4.8%
-2.1%
3.7%
0.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
4.9%
24.0%
6.0%
3.6%
3.0%
-0.8%
3.7%
10.3%
7.2%
0.3%
5.6%
-5.3%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.8%
15.6%
6.6%
7.4%
3.9%
9.0%
13.6%
8.8%
5.3%
5.0%
6.8%
n.a.
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
7.8%
19.9%
10.9%
6.1%
2.4%
3.0%
9.1%
8.8%
10.8%
4.0%
8.5%
-3.7%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
7.2%
14.1%
8.6%
6.7%
3.4%
1.5%
8.2%
11.7%
8.6%
4.6%
8.0%
-5.3%
n.a.
3Q 14
5.7%
4.9%
6.8%
5.4%
3.9%
3.1%
17.0%
10.5%
4.8%
2.0%
6.1%
-0.1%
n.a.
4Q 14
6.1%
5.8%
7.3%
5.7%
4.3%
0.2%
14.3%
14.1%
5.9%
1.5%
6.4%
0.5%
n.a.
1Q 15
5.4%
4.5%
5.2%
5.5%
6.1%
5.2%
9.4%
11.6%
3.6%
2.1%
5.8%
-0.1%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
0
151
(32)
113
0.0%
1.3%
1Q 13
11,907
6,694
56.2%
2Q 13
0
59
49
12
0.0%
0.5%
2Q 13
11,907
6,945
58.3%
59.1%
3Q 13
0
59
59
67
0.0%
0.5%
3Q 13
11,907
7,035
4Q 13
93
93
62
141
0.8%
0.8%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
12,000
6,895
57.5%
1Q 14
0
93
(33)
140
0.0%
0.8%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
12,000
6,757
56.3%
56.5%
2Q 14
0
93
100
189
0.0%
0.8%
2Q 14
12,000
6,777
3Q 14
75
168
13
142
0.6%
1.4%
3Q 14
12,075
6,694
55.4%
4Q 14
0
75
(80)
(8)
0.0%
0.6%
4Q 14
12,075
6,995
57.9%
1Q 15
0
75
79
111
0.0%
0.6%
1Q 15
12,075
6,843
56.7%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 76
9 SAN JOSE: NORTH SAN JOSE/MILPITAS
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
2.5k
Annual Rent Change
2.0k
Occupancy
1.5k
1.0k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.5k
0.0k
Annual Supply
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
3.0k
All Other Submarkets
SUBMARKET
13,468
7,788
57.8%
METRO
155,149
70,204
45.2%
200
1,445
12.0%
813
2,358
0
276
1,427
927
4,177
2.5%
1,990
4,177
326
1,718
4,151
97.1%
0.9
0.5
97.4%
95.6%
96.7%
97.1%
0.6
0.3
97.6%
96.3%
97.1%
$2,431
$2.742
0.5%
9.7%
13.3%
2.4%
7.4%
$2,325
$2.670
1.0%
9.3%
13.2%
1.2%
8.4%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
Quarterly
3.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
1.4%
10.2%
13.7%
1.1%
7.7%
1.6%
9.6%
13.8%
3.7%
8.7%
1,588
1,246
95.1%
‐2.0
3,694
3,267
96.9%
‐0.2
Annual
2.5k
2.0k
1.5k
1.0k
0.5k
0.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
15%
Submarket
Metro
10%
5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 77
9 SAN JOSE: NORTH SAN JOSE/MILPITAS
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Enso *
9
175 Baypointe Pkwy, San Jose, CA 95134
Aire
9
3401 Iron Point Dr, San Jose, CA 95134
Verdant (The) *
9
3700 Casa Verde Way, San Jose, CA 95134
RiverView I
9
3469 N 1st St, San Jose, CA 95134
ILARA
9
1201 S Main St, Milpitas, CA 95035
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Fairfield Residential
Conv entional
183
4
02/12 05/14
Bay West Dev elopment
Conv entional
293
5
08/12 07/14
Fairfield Residential
Conv entional
498
5
09/11 07/14
Thompson Dorfman Partners LLC
Conv entional
271
4
09/11 10/14
Shea Properties
Conv entional
200
4
03/13 01/15
Total Units: 1,445
Sub#
9
9
9
9
Properties Under Construction
Epic
600 Epic Way, San Jose, CA 95134
River Oaks East
385 Riv er Oaks Pkwy, San Jose, CA 95134
Citation II Lago Vista
765 Montague Expy, Milpitas, CA 95035
Tasman
99 Vista Montana, San Jose, CA 95134
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
769
5
11/11 04/15
The Irv ine Company LLC
Conv entional
438
4
03/13 05/15
SCS Dev elopment Company
Conv entional
381
5
03/15 03/16
Equity Residential
Conv entional
554
6
10/13 06/16
Total Units: 2,142
* Originally planned or started as a for-sale condominium property but switched to rental during construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 95002, 95035, 95131, 95132, 95134
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 78
9 SAN JOSE: NORTH SAN JOSE/MILPITAS
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
95.6%
96.1%
95.3%
95.7%
96.9%
95.3%
95.6%
96.3%
95.9%
95.5%
96.7%
94.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.0%
93.2%
95.8%
96.1%
97.9%
95.7%
95.6%
97.4%
96.8%
89.4%
96.7%
95.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
96.7%
95.6%
96.5%
96.9%
97.8%
97.1%
95.8%
97.4%
98.2%
100.0%
97.3%
96.1%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.7%
95.5%
96.9%
96.6%
97.0%
96.2%
97.5%
96.7%
95.9%
100.0%
97.8%
95.7%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.6%
95.1%
96.8%
96.4%
97.4%
96.1%
96.7%
97.4%
98.6%
90.7%
98.0%
95.2%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.1%
96.1%
97.2%
96.9%
97.6%
96.6%
97.6%
97.4%
99.5%
79.6%
98.3%
95.8%
n.a.
3Q 14
97.3%
97.5%
97.0%
97.4%
98.0%
96.8%
98.4%
96.8%
95.5%
83.3%
97.9%
96.6%
n.a.
4Q 14
96.2%
95.8%
96.8%
95.7%
96.6%
95.8%
97.3%
95.6%
95.9%
90.7%
96.7%
95.7%
n.a.
1Q 15
97.1%
97.5%
97.3%
96.8%
97.6%
96.4%
98.0%
97.1%
96.8%
96.3%
97.6%
96.6%
n.a.
1Q 13
$2,033
$1,744
$1,838
$2,173
$2,525
$2,171
$1,965 $1,908 $1,669
$1,408
$1,886
$2,174
n.a.
2Q 13
$2,105
$1,833
$1,868
$2,287
$2,504
$2,287
$2,068 $1,896 $1,688
$1,337
$1,937
$2,287
n.a.
3Q 13
$2,178
$1,790
$1,970
$2,327
$2,737
$2,422
$2,034 $1,956 $1,940
$1,442
$1,963
$2,401
n.a.
4Q 13
$2,160
$1,688
$1,964
$2,300
$2,735
$2,367
$2,004 $2,053 $1,730
$1,591
$1,960
$2,366
n.a.
1Q 14
$2,230
$1,861
$2,005
$2,390
$2,883
$2,456
$2,056 $2,090 $1,907
$1,599
$2,025
$2,435
n.a.
2Q 14
$2,373
$2,078
$2,145
$2,546
$2,836
$2,597
$2,240 $2,169 $2,095
$1,694
$2,161
$2,591
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,419
$2,038
$2,163
$2,602
$3,076
$2,634
$2,293 $2,215 $2,133
$1,650
$2,194
$2,651
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,423
$2,058
$2,229
$2,592
$2,789
$2,653
$2,261 $2,240 $2,088
$1,906
$2,201
$2,644
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,431
$2,190
$2,210
$2,614
$2,848
$2,630
$2,295 $2,288 $2,056
$1,949
$2,232
$2,632
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.296
$3.238
$2.594
$2.118
$2.010
$2.410
$2.223 $2.149 $2.403
$1.907
$2.175
$2.408
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.377
$3.516
$2.632
$2.237
$2.036
$2.537
$2.340 $2.124 $2.429
$1.812
$2.229
$2.531
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.451
$3.323
$2.759
$2.268
$2.179
$2.680
$2.291 $2.191 $2.793
$1.954
$2.250
$2.652
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.428
$3.105
$2.748
$2.241
$2.168
$2.619
$2.258 $2.300 $2.490
$1.979
$2.242
$2.613
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.509
$3.455
$2.803
$2.323
$2.278
$2.718
$2.316 $2.341 $2.745
$2.209
$2.321
$2.689
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.669
$3.857
$3.003
$2.480
$2.255
$2.874
$2.524 $2.430 $3.015
$2.340
$2.477
$2.862
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.719
$3.750
$3.026
$2.534
$2.434
$2.915
$2.584 $2.481 $3.071
$2.052
$2.509
$2.928
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.733
$3.714
$3.097
$2.520
$2.236
$2.956
$2.547 $2.510 $3.006
$2.634
$2.522
$2.937
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.742
$3.944
$3.069
$2.537
$2.276
$2.930
$2.586 $2.563 $2.960
$2.693
$2.558
$2.924
n.a.
1Q 13
2.5%
3.3%
4.1%
1.5%
1.1%
-2.1%
5.8%
7.8%
4.6%
14.4%
7.6%
-1.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
2.4%
-5.1%
0.6%
4.0%
3.9%
-0.4%
6.1%
3.6%
-0.9%
2.0%
5.3%
0.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.7%
4.6%
4.1%
1.6%
3.7%
2.1%
3.5%
2.5%
5.6%
1.6%
4.0%
1.7%
n.a.
4Q 13
5.5%
2.1%
6.5%
5.0%
5.2%
6.1%
3.5%
8.9%
-0.7%
8.7%
4.3%
6.6%
n.a.
1Q 14
9.1%
6.7%
8.5%
9.3%
12.4%
12.7%
2.7%
10.0%
14.3%
12.9%
5.9%
11.6%
n.a.
2Q 14
12.4%
15.9%
14.6%
10.9%
10.2%
14.2%
7.7%
14.4%
24.1%
31.8%
10.8%
13.8%
n.a.
3Q 14
10.9%
12.8%
9.6%
11.7%
11.3%
8.8%
12.8%
13.2%
9.9%
28.4%
11.5%
10.4%
n.a.
4Q 14
12.1%
15.6%
13.1%
12.0%
4.7%
12.2%
12.8%
9.1%
20.7%
25.1%
12.4%
11.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
9.7%
14.4%
10.3%
9.8%
3.3%
7.0%
13.3%
9.5%
7.8%
21.9%
11.3%
8.2%
n.a.
1Q 13
1.1%
1.3%
2.3%
0.4%
0.4%
-3.4%
4.1%
7.2%
1.0%
12.9%
6.7%
-3.5%
n.a.
2Q 13
1.3%
-9.4%
-0.6%
2.9%
4.7%
-1.9%
4.9%
3.9%
-2.7%
-8.6%
4.1%
-1.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.4%
3.3%
3.7%
1.6%
3.6%
2.1%
2.4%
3.3%
6.5%
1.6%
3.6%
1.6%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.3%
2.6%
7.6%
5.7%
3.5%
6.4%
5.6%
8.9%
-0.3%
8.7%
5.0%
7.6%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
10.1%
5.7%
10.0%
10.0%
12.9%
13.5%
3.8%
11.1%
17.0%
8.1%
7.2%
12.2%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
13.5%
18.8%
16.0%
11.7%
9.9%
15.1%
9.7%
14.4%
26.8%
22.0%
12.4%
14.4%
n.a.
3Q 14
11.5%
14.7%
10.1%
12.2%
11.5%
8.5%
15.4%
12.6%
7.2%
11.7%
12.1%
10.9%
n.a.
4Q 14
11.6%
15.9%
13.0%
11.1%
4.3%
11.8%
12.6%
8.0%
20.7%
15.8%
11.3%
11.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
10.2%
16.8%
10.8%
10.2%
3.5%
7.3%
14.6%
9.2%
6.0%
27.5%
10.9%
9.6%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
743
1,123
706
2Q 13
496
1,619
560
3Q 13
678
1,917
679
4Q 13
441
2,358
418
1Q 14
366
1,981
2Q 14
183
3Q 14
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
970
8.0%
12.6%
1Q 13
10,042
7,571
75.4%
1,496
4.9%
18.2%
2Q 13
10,538
7,130
67.7%
1,808
6.4%
20.6%
3Q 13
11,216
7,729
68.9%
2,400
3.9%
25.4%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
11,657
7,699
66.0%
352
2,045
3.1%
19.7%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
12,023
7,574
63.0%
1,668
238
1,716
1.5%
15.8%
2Q 14
12,206
7,717
63.2%
791
1,781
775
1,807
6.5%
15.9%
3Q 14
12,997
7,687
59.1%
4Q 14
271
1,611
136
1,564
2.1%
13.8%
4Q 14
13,268
7,862
59.3%
1Q 15
200
1,445
276
1,427
1.5%
12.0%
1Q 15
13,468
7,788
57.8%
© 2015 MPF Research
Ann
INVENTORY
Period
BAY AREA | 79
OAKLAND SUBMARKETS
BAY AREA | 80
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
Submarket Number (Key Below)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Quarterly Supply
0
0
78
0
0
0
0
0
0
78
Annual Supply
0
22
1,016
0
42
0
432
0
0
1,512
Rank
Annual Removals
Annual Inventory Change
2
5
5
124
0
0
0
368
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.1%
-1.3%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
4
3
9
1
4
4
0
42
54
477
562
415
Two-Year Inventory Change
1.7%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0.1%
-0.7%
4.0%
5.2%
5.3%
1.5%
Five-Year Supply
463
230
2,811
0
42
164
895
1,165
415
6,185
3,464
4
6
1
9
8
7
3
2
5
Five-Year Inventory Change
2.6%
0.7%
3.2%
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
7.8%
11.5%
5.3%
Five-Year Avg Annual Change
0.5%
0.3%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
1.3%
2.2%
1.1%
0.6%
18,258
29,981
81,093
13,222
14,882
9,773
12,349
11,303
8,225
199,086
0
472
782
57
0
0
682
0
674
2,667
6
4
1
5
6
6
2
6
3
3.0%
Quarterly Demand
5
10
699
62
15
-57
103
-19
15
833
Annual Demand
4
321
691
35
293
-81
735
334
11
2,342
Two-Year Demand
402
345
1,509
258
195
9
640
648
597
4,602
Five-Year Demand
741
900
3,978
462
109
144
1,171
1,242
597
9,340
98.1%
98.2%
96.2%
98.1%
97.6%
97.0%
98.2%
96.6%
97.2%
97.5%
3
1
9
3
5
7
1
8
6
Quarterly Change
0.0
0.1
1.2
0.8
0.1
0.8
1.3
-0.1
0.2
0.4
Annual Change
0.0
0.8
-0.3
0.2
1.3
0.0
1.3
2.3
0.1
0.6
7
4
9
5
2
7
2
1
6
Two-Year Change
0.2
1.2
0.0
2.2
0.9
1.2
1.8
-0.1
1.4
Five-Year Change
1.4
2.7
3.0
3.9
1.5
1.5
2.8
0.3
1.5
2.0
97.9%
97.2%
96.4%
96.4%
96.7%
95.8%
96.8%
96.9%
97.0%
96.9%
Rank
Five-Year Average Rate
Rank
Monthly Rent
Rank
Rent Per Square Foot
Rank
1
2
7
7
6
9
5
4
3
$2,083
$1,622
$2,213
$1,432
$1,634
$1,286
$2,007
$2,056
$1,973
2
7
1
8
6
9
4
3
5
$2.514
$2.022
$2.614
$1.768
$1.988
$1.522
$2.535
$2.334
$2.368
3
6
1
8
7
9
2
5
4
0.9
$1,841
$2.218
Quarterly Same-Store Change
2.8%
0.6%
-0.1%
3.8%
2.1%
1.8%
2.1%
0.5%
-0.2%
1.4%
Annual Same-Store Change
13.2%
10.0%
10.5%
8.9%
8.3%
8.7%
10.8%
8.6%
9.2%
10.2%
1
4
3
6
9
7
2
8
5
Two-Year Same-Store Change
25.0%
19.3%
19.1%
15.1%
16.9%
15.5%
18.0%
17.9%
19.3%
19.3%
Five-Year Same-Store Change
47.2%
37.0%
44.1%
28.3%
30.6%
24.9%
42.5%
37.8%
39.9%
38.5%
1
6
2
8
7
9
3
5
4
8.2%
6.4%
7.8%
4.8%
5.4%
3.8%
7.9%
7.1%
7.5%
1
6
3
8
7
9
2
5
4
Units with Concessions
0.8%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
2.8%
2.1%
0.7%
2.0%
0.0%
1.0%
Average Concession
1.8%
4.2%
n.a.
n.a.
8.3%
3.5%
2.2%
0.8%
n.a.
3.4%
Quarterly Change
2.8%
0.7%
1.1%
4.6%
2.2%
2.6%
3.4%
0.4%
0.0%
1.8%
Annual Change
13.2%
10.8%
10.2%
9.1%
9.6%
8.7%
12.1%
10.9%
9.3%
10.8%
Rank
Rank
Five-Year Average Annual Change
Rank
6.8%
1
4
5
8
6
9
2
3
7
Two-Year Change
25.2%
20.5%
19.1%
17.3%
17.8%
16.7%
19.8%
17.8%
20.7%
20.2%
Five-Year Change
48.6%
39.7%
47.1%
32.2%
32.1%
26.4%
45.3%
38.1%
41.4%
40.5%
1
5
2
7
8
9
3
6
4
8.6%
7.1%
8.7%
5.6%
5.9%
4.4%
8.5%
7.3%
8.0%
7.4%
0
0
782
57
0
0
367
0
168
1,374
Rank
Rank
Five-Year Average Annual Change
Supply
Rank
Inventory Growth Rate
Rank
Demand
Occupancy Rate
Rank
Occupancy Change
Rank
© 2015 MPF Research
5
20
2
Rank
Submarket Key
3
0
1,591
Current Rate
ONE-YEAR FORECAST
5
202
4
Rank
REVENUE
1
22
22
All Active Construction
RENT
4
0
4
Existing Units
OCCUPANCY
5
301
Rank
DEMAND
METRO
Two-Year Supply
Rank
SUPPLY
1Q 2015
5
5
1
4
5
5
2
5
3
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
0.0%
2.0%
5
5
3
4
5
5
1
5
2
0.7%
-46
-70
742
29
11
9
311
22
131
1,139
97.9%
98.0%
96.2%
97.9%
97.7%
97.1%
97.8%
96.8%
96.9%
97.4%
2
1
9
3
5
6
4
8
7
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.4
0.2
-0.3
5
5
4
5
2
2
9
1
8
1. Fremo nt
2. Hayward/San Leandro /Unio n City
3. Oakland/B erkeley
4. No rthwest Co ntra Co sta Co unty
5. Co nco rd/M artinez
-0.1
6. No rtheast Co ntra Co sta Co unty
7. Walnut Creek/Lafayette
8. San Ramo n/Dublin
9. Livermo re/P leasanto n
BAY AREA | 81
1 OAKLAND: FREMONT
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
18,258
13,235
72.5%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
0
0.0%
93
301
0
5
4
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
98.1%
0.0
0.0
98.5%
97.0%
97.9%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$2,083
$2.514
2.8%
13.2%
14.4%
‐4.2%
8.2%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
2.8%
13.2%
14.6%
‐2.1%
8.6%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
0
‐46
97.9%
‐0.2
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
16%
Submarket
Metro
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 82
1 OAKLAND: FREMONT
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94536, 94538, 94539, 94555, 94560
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 83
1 OAKLAND: FREMONT
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
97.9%
98.2%
97.8%
97.8%
99.1%
97.4%
96.9%
97.9%
98.0%
99.5%
97.9%
96.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
98.1%
99.1%
98.0%
98.2%
97.9%
98.4%
97.2%
98.3%
98.1%
99.4%
98.3%
95.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.6%
99.1%
97.8%
97.6%
96.8%
98.1%
95.9%
96.8%
98.7%
99.2%
97.7%
96.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
97.9%
98.2%
97.8%
98.0%
98.0%
97.3%
96.4%
98.3%
98.0%
99.6%
98.1%
95.7%
n.a.
1Q 14
98.1%
100.0%
98.0%
98.1%
98.4%
95.9%
97.1%
98.1%
98.7%
99.9%
98.3%
95.5%
n.a.
2Q 14
98.5%
100.0%
98.6%
98.5%
97.8%
97.3%
97.4%
98.6%
98.9%
99.9%
98.6%
97.2%
n.a.
3Q 14
98.4%
100.0%
98.5%
98.3%
97.9%
95.6%
97.4%
98.8%
98.8%
99.6%
98.5%
95.7%
n.a.
4Q 14
98.1%
98.2%
97.9%
98.2%
98.0%
97.1%
97.2%
98.1%
98.4%
99.5%
98.3%
95.5%
n.a.
1Q 15
98.1%
98.2%
98.2%
98.1%
97.9%
95.4%
97.8%
98.3%
98.5%
99.0%
98.3%
95.1%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,625
$1,227
$1,444
$1,760
$2,097
$2,077
$1,919 $1,623 $1,482
$1,376
$1,608
$1,879
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,676
$1,202
$1,494
$1,811
$2,128
$2,162
$2,004 $1,675 $1,523
$1,403
$1,659
$1,934
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,746
$1,294
$1,542
$1,900
$2,207
$2,288
$2,036 $1,750 $1,577
$1,414
$1,730
$2,000
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,746
$1,272
$1,569
$1,877
$2,213
$2,096
$2,071 $1,752 $1,599
$1,472
$1,739
$1,851
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,843
$1,394
$1,626
$2,004
$2,367
$2,154
$2,165 $1,880 $1,659
$1,512
$1,832
$1,994
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,874
$1,344
$1,671
$2,032
$2,396
$2,302
$2,225 $1,885 $1,690
$1,514
$1,860
$2,088
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,942
$1,441
$1,728
$2,115
$2,363
$2,233
$2,247 $1,998 $1,763
$1,626
$1,933
$2,080
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,984
$1,452
$1,767
$2,162
$2,433
$2,317
$2,276 $2,059 $1,816
$1,676
$1,976
$2,115
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,083
$1,496
$1,837
$2,272
$2,596
$2,272
$2,522 $2,147 $1,861
$1,725
$2,088
$1,996
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.980
$2.549
$2.163
$1.886
$1.699
$2.290
$1.966 $2.047 $1.905
$1.764
$1.970
$2.118
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.031
$2.495
$2.239
$1.930
$1.709
$2.384
$2.052 $2.061 $1.960
$1.810
$2.020
$2.180
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.107
$2.687
$2.301
$2.014
$1.772
$2.523
$2.123 $2.136 $2.031
$1.824
$2.097
$2.254
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.124
$2.642
$2.348
$2.009
$1.809
$2.311
$2.122 $2.186 $2.068
$1.899
$2.127
$2.086
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.234
$2.774
$2.426
$2.136
$1.931
$2.375
$2.257 $2.337 $2.154
$1.950
$2.233
$2.247
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.280
$2.791
$2.494
$2.166
$1.950
$2.537
$2.319 $2.352 $2.194
$1.953
$2.275
$2.353
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.359
$2.992
$2.577
$2.255
$1.929
$2.461
$2.343 $2.494 $2.280
$2.097
$2.360
$2.344
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.422
$3.016
$2.646
$2.313
$1.990
$2.554
$2.331 $2.570 $2.351
$2.190
$2.425
$2.384
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.514
$3.107
$2.739
$2.410
$2.101
$2.505
$2.630 $2.621 $2.407
$2.225
$2.532
$2.250
n.a.
1Q 13
8.6%
16.7%
9.2%
8.4%
6.4%
9.4%
5.6%
9.2%
9.7%
3.8%
8.5%
10.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
8.8%
9.6%
10.7%
7.9%
4.0%
8.1%
8.1%
8.4%
9.9%
6.1%
8.8%
8.5%
n.a.
3Q 13
9.0%
1.1%
9.3%
9.2%
6.6%
9.3%
7.1%
9.3%
10.5%
4.4%
9.0%
9.7%
n.a.
4Q 13
8.1%
4.2%
9.3%
7.2%
7.3%
-0.4%
12.3%
8.7%
8.6%
7.3%
9.0%
-2.3%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
11.8%
4.8%
11.0%
12.3%
13.1%
3.7%
13.2%
13.6%
12.1%
10.9%
12.3%
6.1%
2Q 14
10.9%
11.8%
10.3%
11.3%
10.7%
6.4%
10.0%
13.1%
11.2%
7.9%
11.1%
8.0%
n.a.
3Q 14
11.5%
11.3%
12.0%
11.4%
7.7%
-2.4%
10.3%
15.4%
12.0%
14.9%
12.0%
4.0%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 14
14.4%
14.2%
13.4%
15.6%
10.1%
10.5%
9.9%
17.6%
14.7%
15.5%
14.5%
14.3%
1Q 15
13.2%
16.2%
13.4%
13.9%
5.7%
5.5%
16.5%
15.0%
11.6%
14.1%
14.2%
0.1%
n.a.
1Q 13
8.8%
18.5%
9.1%
8.8%
6.6%
9.5%
5.0%
9.8%
9.7%
5.8%
8.7%
10.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
9.2%
8.7%
11.0%
8.6%
3.8%
9.1%
8.8%
9.0%
10.2%
6.0%
9.3%
7.3%
n.a.
3Q 13
8.2%
0.2%
8.6%
8.5%
6.0%
11.6%
6.0%
7.3%
10.3%
4.6%
8.3%
7.9%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
7.9%
2.4%
9.0%
7.1%
7.8%
0.4%
12.5%
9.0%
7.9%
7.4%
9.0%
-5.1%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
12.0%
6.6%
11.2%
12.6%
12.4%
2.2%
13.4%
13.8%
12.8%
11.3%
12.7%
4.8%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
11.3%
12.7%
10.9%
11.6%
10.6%
5.3%
10.2%
13.4%
12.0%
8.4%
11.4%
10.2%
n.a.
3Q 14
12.3%
12.2%
12.7%
12.1%
8.8%
-4.9%
11.8%
17.4%
12.1%
15.3%
12.8%
3.3%
n.a.
4Q 14
14.6%
14.2%
13.5%
15.8%
10.1%
10.3%
10.7%
17.4%
15.1%
15.4%
14.7%
14.1%
n.a.
1Q 15
13.2%
14.4%
13.6%
13.9%
5.2%
5.0%
17.2%
15.2%
11.4%
13.2%
14.2%
-0.3%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
Ann
INVENTORY
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 13
0
0
(34)
45
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
17,957
12,264
68.3%
2Q 13
0
0
48
78
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
17,957
12,484
69.5%
75.0%
3Q 13
0
0
(116)
(160)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
17,957
13,463
4Q 13
301
301
409
285
1.7%
1.7%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
18,258
12,248
67.1%
1Q 14
0
301
30
320
0.0%
1.7%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
18,258
12,259
67.1%
2Q 14
0
301
85
380
0.0%
1.7%
2Q 14
18,258
12,849
70.4%
3Q 14
0
301
(30)
480
0.0%
1.7%
3Q 14
18,258
13,013
71.3%
4Q 14
0
0
(29)
54
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 14
18,258
12,678
69.4%
1Q 15
0
0
5
4
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 15
18,258
13,235
72.5%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 84
2 OAKLAND: HAYWARD/SAN LEANDRO/UNION CITY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
29,981
10,796
36.0%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
22
0.0%
87
479
0
10
321
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
98.2%
0.1
0.8
98.3%
95.3%
97.2%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$1,622
$2.022
0.6%
10.0%
10.9%
‐1.7%
6.4%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.7%
10.8%
11.2%
‐1.7%
7.1%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
0
‐70
98.0%
‐0.2
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
13%
Submarket
Metro
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 85
2 OAKLAND: HAYWARD/SAN LEANDRO/UNION CITY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
2
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Hayward Senior II
Eden Housing Inc
22605 Grand St, Hayward, CA 94541
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Senior
22
3
12/13 12/14
Total Units: 22
Sub#
2
2
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Cornerstone I (The)
BRIDGE Housing
Affordable
115
5
12/14 05/16
Eden Housing Inc/Wittek & Montana
Conv entional
357
5
02/15 11/16
1503 Martinez St, San Leandro, CA 94577
South Hayward
28901 Mission Blv d, Hayward, CA 94544
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Total Units: 472
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94541, 94542, 94544, 94545, 94546, 94552, 94577, 94578, 94579, 94580, 94587
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 86
2 OAKLAND: HAYWARD/SAN LEANDRO/UNION CITY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
97.0%
95.6%
96.5%
97.4%
97.7%
96.5%
99.6%
97.0%
96.2%
98.0%
96.9%
97.4%
n.a.
2Q 13
98.1%
97.0%
98.2%
97.8%
98.9%
97.6%
99.6%
97.0%
98.9%
98.5%
98.2%
97.3%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.6%
97.4%
97.3%
97.9%
98.2%
97.0%
100.0% 97.7%
96.7%
98.7%
97.6%
97.6%
n.a.
4Q 13
98.3%
97.4%
98.2%
98.3%
99.6%
97.6%
99.7%
97.5%
98.3%
99.4%
98.4%
97.9%
n.a.
1Q 14
97.4%
98.5%
97.2%
97.4%
98.5%
96.7%
99.3%
97.0%
96.6%
98.8%
97.4%
97.4%
n.a.
2Q 14
98.2%
98.7%
98.2%
98.2%
99.2%
98.4%
100.0% 97.5%
98.2%
98.9%
98.2%
98.3%
n.a.
3Q 14
98.0%
99.2%
97.9%
98.1%
99.2%
99.0%
100.0% 97.8%
97.6%
98.4%
97.9%
99.6%
n.a.
4Q 14
98.1%
98.4%
98.1%
98.1%
99.0%
97.4%
99.7%
97.4%
98.4%
98.9%
98.2%
97.7%
n.a.
1Q 15
98.2%
98.4%
98.1%
98.1%
99.4%
97.7%
100.0% 97.5%
98.3%
98.9%
98.1%
99.4%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,385
$1,258
$1,228
$1,524
$1,758
$1,736
$1,521 $1,386 $1,322
$1,312
$1,365
$1,558
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,379
$1,136
$1,232
$1,508
$1,625
$1,773
$1,507 $1,384 $1,295
$1,302
$1,355
$1,603
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,471
$1,367
$1,295
$1,631
$1,850
$1,905
$1,550 $1,552 $1,360
$1,339
$1,451
$1,638
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,486
$1,428
$1,336
$1,617
$1,832
$1,891
$1,367 $1,515 $1,440
$1,354
$1,447
$1,845
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,483
$1,307
$1,341
$1,606
$1,789
$1,879
$1,433 $1,523 $1,404
$1,376
$1,446
$1,876
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,545
$1,202
$1,381
$1,692
$1,830
$1,937
$1,396 $1,553 $1,488
$1,459
$1,520
$1,778
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,585
$1,369
$1,431
$1,727
$1,875
$1,976
$1,417 $1,621 $1,512
$1,488
$1,557
$1,854
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,619
$1,506
$1,463
$1,769
$1,864
$1,982
$1,475 $1,684 $1,550
$1,492
$1,592
$1,901
n.a.
1Q 15
$1,622
$1,458
$1,469
$1,764
$1,831
$1,979
$1,474 $1,688 $1,526
$1,533
$1,595
$1,877
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.719
$2.677
$1.818
$1.653
$1.487
$1.767
$1.644 $1.750 $1.716
$1.658
$1.726
$1.671
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.707
$2.576
$1.846
$1.642
$1.362
$1.802
$1.629 $1.737 $1.670
$1.672
$1.700
$1.765
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.843
$2.907
$1.948
$1.779
$1.560
$1.939
$1.675 $1.958 $1.771
$1.746
$1.848
$1.809
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.856
$3.038
$2.005
$1.760
$1.559
$1.921
$1.624 $1.956 $1.860
$1.738
$1.843
$1.956
n.a.
1Q 14
$1.850
$2.800
$2.016
$1.754
$1.526
$1.909
$1.703 $1.930 $1.826
$1.762
$1.835
$1.987
n.a.
2Q 14
$1.907
$2.774
$2.052
$1.839
$1.546
$1.967
$1.658 $1.944 $1.930
$1.824
$1.907
$1.906
n.a.
3Q 14
$1.972
$2.960
$2.136
$1.881
$1.584
$2.008
$1.684 $2.054 $1.962
$1.887
$1.970
$1.989
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.028
$3.257
$2.198
$1.936
$1.583
$2.013
$1.753 $2.142 $2.030
$1.919
$2.030
$2.015
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.022
$3.153
$2.202
$1.933
$1.561
$2.010
$1.752 $2.147 $1.990
$1.942
$2.023
$2.013
n.a.
1Q 13
6.3%
0.0%
5.5%
7.0%
7.6%
11.1%
6.7%
6.8%
4.7%
7.5%
6.3%
6.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
4.7%
0.0%
4.4%
5.0%
5.4%
7.2%
3.5%
4.7%
2.3%
9.1%
4.8%
3.9%
n.a.
3Q 13
9.0%
10.7%
7.7%
10.1%
8.9%
10.4%
6.9%
13.1%
3.6%
9.8%
8.7%
11.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
9.6%
8.4%
11.2%
7.5%
17.1%
13.9%
6.6%
9.5%
9.8%
7.0%
8.8%
15.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
9.3%
9.4%
11.8%
6.8%
12.6%
15.8%
10.2%
9.5%
7.3%
7.5%
8.2%
17.7%
n.a.
2Q 14
10.9%
11.4%
11.0%
10.7%
11.2%
9.2%
8.1%
12.4%
11.0%
9.6%
11.2%
8.6%
n.a.
3Q 14
8.7%
4.5%
11.1%
6.6%
10.0%
11.0%
6.9%
4.8%
10.8%
11.3%
8.5%
10.1%
n.a.
4Q 14
9.4%
10.8%
9.8%
9.8%
2.5%
4.8%
7.9%
10.6%
9.5%
10.7%
10.3%
3.0%
n.a.
1Q 15
10.0%
9.9%
10.0%
10.9%
2.7%
5.3%
2.9%
11.9%
9.4%
11.5%
11.1%
1.4%
n.a.
1Q 13
6.0%
-2.8%
4.8%
7.1%
6.6%
12.4%
6.3%
6.2%
4.1%
7.6%
5.9%
5.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.4%
1.4%
5.4%
5.2%
6.2%
8.9%
3.1%
4.4%
3.5%
10.2%
5.6%
3.6%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
9.0%
10.7%
7.4%
10.4%
9.6%
10.3%
7.8%
13.1%
2.6%
11.2%
8.5%
13.6%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
11.2%
7.3%
13.2%
8.5%
19.4%
15.7%
6.3%
9.2%
13.2%
8.8%
10.3%
17.1%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
9.7%
12.3%
12.5%
6.8%
13.4%
16.0%
9.9%
9.5%
7.7%
8.3%
8.7%
17.7%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
11.0%
13.1%
11.0%
11.1%
11.5%
10.0%
8.5%
12.9%
10.3%
10.0%
11.2%
9.6%
n.a.
3Q 14
9.1%
6.3%
11.7%
6.8%
11.0%
13.0%
6.9%
4.9%
11.7%
11.0%
8.8%
12.1%
n.a.
4Q 14
9.2%
11.8%
9.7%
9.6%
1.9%
4.6%
7.9%
10.5%
9.6%
10.2%
10.1%
2.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
10.8%
9.8%
10.9%
11.6%
3.6%
6.3%
3.6%
12.4%
11.1%
11.6%
11.8%
3.4%
n.a.
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
57
2Q 13
0
0
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
80
(31)
0.0%
0.2%
1Q 13
29,981
10,254
34.2%
315
175
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
29,981
10,262
34.2%
Qtrly
CHANGE
3Q 13
0
0
(185)
1
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
29,981
10,652
35.5%
4Q 13
0
0
256
507
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
29,981
9,659
32.2%
1Q 14
0
0
(331)
107
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
29,981
10,750
35.9%
2Q 14
0
0
298
53
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
29,981
10,338
34.5%
3Q 14
0
0
(92)
123
-0.1%
-0.1%
3Q 14
29,959
10,890
36.3%
4Q 14
22
22
74
(16)
0.1%
0.0%
4Q 14
29,981
10,608
35.4%
1Q 15
0
22
10
321
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 15
29,981
10,796
36.0%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 87
3 OAKLAND: OAKLAND/BERKELEY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Occupancy
1.0k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.5k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
81,093
8,869
10.9%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
78
1,016
1.0%
507
1,016
84
699
691
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
96.2%
1.2
‐0.3
97.7%
93.2%
96.4%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$2,213
$2.614
‐0.1%
10.5%
16.3%
‐3.1%
7.8%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1.1%
10.2%
16.4%
‐0.4%
8.7%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
1.5k
1.0k
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
20%
Submarket
Metro
15%
10%
5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
2.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
1.5k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
2.0k
782
742
96.2%
0.0
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 88
3 OAKLAND: OAKLAND/BERKELEY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Fidelity
2321 Shattuck Av e, Berkeley, CA 94704
Lion Creek Crossings V
6710 Leona Creek Dr, Oakland, CA 94621
Oakland 34
10920 MacArthur Blv d, Oakland, CA 94605
Cathedral Gardens
638 21st St, Oakland, CA 94612
Lampwork Lofts
1614 Campbell St, Oakland, CA 94607
Lakeside Senior
1511 2nd Av e, Oakland, CA 94606
EMME
6350 Christie Av e, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Stranda House
2489 Martin Luther King Jr Way, Berkeley, CA 94704
Higby (The)
3015 San Pablo Av e, Berkeley, CA 94702
Parc on Powell
1333 Powell St, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Durant (The)
2024 Durant Av e, Berkeley, CA 94704
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
16
5
02/13 05/14
EBALDC
Senior
128
4
06/13 07/14
Meta Housing Corp
Senior
33
4
11/12 07/14
EAH Inc
Affordable
100
4
07/12 08/14
Madison Park Financial Corp
Conv entional
92
4
04/13 08/14
SAHA
Senior
92
5
04/13 10/14
Essex Property Trust Inc
Conv entional
190
5
08/12 11/14
Priv ate Dev eloper
Conv entional
21
4
11/13 11/14
Gerding Edlen
Conv entional
98
5
12/13 12/14
Equity Residential
Conv entional
168
4
12/12 12/14
The Austin Group LLC
Conv entional
78
6
01/14 03/15
Total Units: 1,016
Sub#
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Properties Under Construction
AveVista
460 Grand Av e, Oakland, CA 94610
Mural
40th St & Telegraph Av e, Oakland, CA 94609
Footprint Valdez
2425 Valdez St, Oakland, CA 94612
Sequoia
2441 Haste St, Berkeley, CA 94704
3900 Adeline
3900 Adeline St, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Aquatic (The)
800 Univ ersity Av e, Berkeley, CA 94710
the INTERSECTION
3800 San Pablo Av e, Emeryv ille, CA 94608
Overture (The)
1812 Univ ersity Av e, Berkeley, CA 94703
Hive (The)
2335 Broadway, Oakland, CA 94612
2107 Dwight Way
2107 Dwight Way, Berkeley, CA 94704
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
BRIDGE Housing
Affordable
68
6
02/14 04/15
BRIDGE Housing
Affordable
90
5
10/13 04/15
Footprint Inv estments
Conv entional
71
6
06/14 06/15
ROEM Corp
Conv entional
42
4
05/14 06/15
Madison Park Financial Corp
Conv entional
101
3
08/14 11/15
R&S Fifth Street LLC
Conv entional
58
5
11/14 11/15
Holliday Dev elopment
Conv entional
105
5
10/14 11/15
Rhodes Planning Group
Conv entional
44
4
12/14 12/15
Signature Dev elopment Group
Conv entional
104
3
09/14 01/16
Menlo Management Company
Student
99
6
07/14 03/16
Total Units: 782
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 89
3 OAKLAND: OAKLAND/BERKELEY
1Q 2015
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94501, 94502, 94601, 94602, 94603, 94605, 94606, 94607, 94608, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94612, 94613, 94618, 94619, 94621, 94702, 94703, 94704, 94705, 94706, 94707, 94708, 94709, 94710, 94720
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 90
3 OAKLAND: OAKLAND/BERKELEY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.2%
94.5%
96.9%
95.5%
97.5%
95.2%
96.8% 100.0%
96.7%
97.5%
96.8%
95.9%
95.3%
2Q 13
96.9%
97.1%
96.9%
96.7%
97.8%
96.6%
97.1%
96.7%
98.2%
96.5%
97.7%
96.8%
95.1%
3Q 13
97.7%
97.6%
97.9%
97.7%
97.2%
97.1%
96.8%
n.a.
98.5%
98.4%
98.3%
97.3%
97.5%
4Q 13
96.5%
97.1%
97.2%
95.6%
97.1%
96.1%
97.3%
n.a.
95.6%
97.5%
96.9%
97.0%
94.3%
1Q 14
96.5%
97.5%
97.3%
95.7%
96.5%
96.1%
95.5%
n.a.
97.6%
96.7%
96.7%
96.7%
95.9%
2Q 14
97.2%
99.1%
97.5%
96.6%
97.2%
96.6%
95.0%
n.a.
97.7%
98.1%
97.5%
96.6%
97.4%
3Q 14
97.5%
98.6%
98.1%
96.8%
96.6%
97.3%
95.5%
n.a.
98.4%
97.5%
98.0%
97.6%
95.7%
4Q 14
95.0%
91.0%
95.0%
95.1%
97.8%
91.5%
95.0%
n.a.
97.4%
98.5%
97.8%
91.4%
96.5%
1Q 15
96.2%
97.8%
97.0%
95.4%
94.8%
95.8%
95.2%
n.a.
97.0%
96.6%
96.3%
96.2%
96.0%
1Q 13
$1,823
$1,330
$1,609
$2,120
$1,732
$2,154
$1,994
$872
$1,518
$1,440
$1,544
$2,051
$2,104
2Q 13
$1,907
$1,321
$1,748
$2,185
$1,740
$2,161
$2,095
$892
$1,479
$1,781
$1,573
$2,023
$2,460
3Q 13
$2,075
$1,358
$1,848
$2,361
$2,311
$2,307
$2,212
n.a.
$1,574
$1,961
$1,798
$2,138
$2,610
4Q 13
$2,053
$1,428
$1,775
$2,365
$2,386
$2,236
$1,950
n.a.
$1,602
$2,044
$1,786
$2,050
$2,693
1Q 14
$2,078
$1,357
$1,851
$2,419
$1,962
$2,335
$2,024
n.a.
$1,673
$1,944
$1,796
$2,079
$2,802
2Q 14
$2,108
$1,463
$1,893
$2,466
$1,813
$2,457
$1,975
n.a.
$1,767
$1,803
$1,783
$2,237
$2,775
3Q 14
$2,235
$1,607
$1,977
$2,603
$2,082
$2,595
$1,997
n.a.
$1,868
$1,970
$1,928
$2,377
$2,723
4Q 14
$2,275
$1,811
$1,976
$2,661
$2,247
$2,743
$2,020
n.a.
$1,828
$1,910
$2,050
$2,374
$2,672
1Q 15
$2,213
$1,523
$1,931
$2,590
$2,228
$2,610
$2,004
n.a.
$1,810
$1,925
$1,912
$2,355
$2,699
1Q 13
$2.144
$2.115
$2.308
$2.205
$1.451
$2.447
$2.518 $1.614 $1.988
$1.657
$1.779
$2.440
$2.571
2Q 13
$2.243
$2.178
$2.498
$2.245
$1.456
$2.415
$2.646 $1.651 $1.997
$2.057
$1.815
$2.471
$2.791
3Q 13
$2.459
$2.237
$2.652
$2.412
$1.976
$2.606
$2.793
n.a.
$2.129
$2.307
$2.137
$2.610
$2.865
4Q 13
$2.443
$2.353
$2.553
$2.428
$2.028
$2.542
$2.463
n.a.
$2.167
$2.412
$2.126
$2.502
$3.021
1Q 14
$2.437
$2.246
$2.673
$2.477
$1.609
$2.651
$2.569
n.a.
$2.259
$2.183
$2.063
$2.544
$3.143
2Q 14
$2.489
$2.401
$2.734
$2.542
$1.510
$2.774
$2.507
n.a.
$2.390
$2.090
$2.049
$2.721
$3.310
3Q 14
$2.607
$2.606
$2.830
$2.642
$1.698
$2.938
$2.535
n.a.
$2.522
$2.182
$2.212
$2.878
$3.054
4Q 14
$2.688
$3.011
$2.856
$2.713
$1.817
$3.134
$2.564
n.a.
$2.468
$2.170
$2.374
$2.911
$3.027
1Q 15
$2.614
$2.509
$2.791
$2.679
$1.827
$2.978
$2.544
n.a.
$2.444
$2.187
$2.214
$2.887
$3.057
1Q 13
8.2%
-2.7%
6.7%
10.3%
10.3%
10.6%
2.8%
n.a.
3.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.8%
11.8%
2Q 13
10.3%
3.3%
12.5%
8.8%
13.4%
10.4%
11.8%
8.6%
9.6%
10.1%
12.2%
8.6%
9.8%
3Q 13
8.8%
-12.3%
12.2%
8.6%
7.5%
8.2%
8.0%
n.a.
10.5%
9.4%
10.8%
6.2%
10.6%
4Q 13
3.7%
1.5%
3.0%
4.9%
-0.4%
0.2%
-4.1%
n.a.
10.5%
10.2%
7.2%
-1.9%
8.0%
1Q 14
8.6%
3.7%
12.0%
7.0%
6.2%
6.6%
1.3%
n.a.
17.8%
10.1%
11.9%
5.5%
9.5%
13.8%
2Q 14
9.0%
10.4%
10.9%
8.5%
1.5%
9.5%
-6.1%
n.a.
16.9%
7.5%
9.3%
6.5%
3Q 14
8.9%
14.2%
8.3%
8.9%
8.2%
8.7%
-10.0%
n.a.
20.1%
8.0%
13.1%
7.2%
5.1%
4Q 14
16.3%
24.3%
16.8%
15.1%
17.8%
17.9%
3.3%
n.a.
16.3%
16.4%
20.0%
14.7%
12.8%
1Q 15
10.5%
9.6%
9.3%
11.2%
11.7%
11.4%
-1.0%
n.a.
8.2%
12.9%
11.2%
10.9%
8.1%
1Q 13
7.4%
-5.5%
6.4%
8.8%
11.9%
8.7%
0.2%
n.a.
3.9%
7.9%
7.6%
6.3%
9.2%
2Q 13
11.3%
5.8%
13.6%
9.4%
14.9%
11.3%
13.6%
8.6%
12.3%
10.1%
14.1%
10.1%
7.2%
3Q 13
9.2%
-13.0%
13.0%
9.0%
6.7%
7.7%
5.9%
n.a.
14.3%
9.9%
12.2%
5.7%
10.6%
ANNUAL
4Q 13
3.2%
4.0%
2.8%
3.8%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-3.6%
n.a.
9.2%
10.4%
7.2%
-1.4%
4.1%
REVENUE
1Q 14
8.9%
6.7%
12.4%
7.2%
5.2%
7.5%
0.0%
n.a.
18.7%
9.3%
11.8%
6.3%
10.1%
CHANGE
2Q 14
9.3%
12.4%
11.5%
8.4%
0.9%
9.5%
-8.2%
n.a.
16.4%
9.1%
9.1%
6.3%
16.1%
3Q 14
8.7%
15.2%
8.5%
8.0%
7.6%
8.9%
-11.3%
n.a.
20.0%
7.1%
12.8%
7.5%
3.3%
4Q 14
14.8%
18.2%
14.6%
14.6%
18.5%
13.3%
1.0%
n.a.
18.1%
17.4%
20.9%
9.1%
15.0%
1Q 15
10.2%
9.9%
9.0%
10.9%
10.0%
11.1%
-1.3%
n.a.
7.6%
12.8%
10.8%
10.4%
8.2%
SUPPLY
Period
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
0.4%
1Q 13
79,805
8,217
10.3%
0.5%
2Q 13
79,967
8,895
11.1%
3Q 13
80,019
8,592
10.7%
CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
0
324
(492)
(260)
0.0%
2Q 13
162
416
657
1,046
0.2%
3Q 13
153
496
506
557
0.1%
0.5%
4Q 13
242
557
(619)
61
0.3%
0.6%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
80,261
8,698
10.8%
1Q 14
18
575
50
660
0.0%
0.6%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
80,279
9,146
11.4%
2Q 14
16
429
598
572
0.0%
0.4%
2Q 14
80,295
8,819
11.0%
3Q 14
353
629
527
467
0.4%
0.8%
3Q 14
80,648
9,060
11.2%
4Q 14
569
956
(909)
(142)
0.5%
0.9%
4Q 14
81,015
8,987
11.1%
1Q 15
78
1,016
699
691
0.1%
1.0%
1Q 15
81,093
8,869
10.9%
© 2015 MPF Research
Ann
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
BAY AREA | 91
4 OAKLAND: NORTHWEST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
13,222
5,092
38.5%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0
62
35
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
98.1%
0.8
0.2
98.1%
93.3%
96.4%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$1,432
$1.768
3.8%
8.9%
11.0%
‐2.8%
4.8%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
4.6%
9.1%
11.4%
‐3.2%
5.6%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
57
29
97.9%
‐0.2
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
13%
Submarket
Metro
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 92
4 OAKLAND: NORTHWEST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
4
Properties Under Construction
Ohlone Gardens
6495 Portola Dr, El Cerrito, CA 94530
Resources for Community
Dev elopment
Affordable
57
4
04/14 05/15
Total Units: 57
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94525, 94530, 94547, 94564, 94572, 94801, 94803, 94804, 94805, 94806
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 93
4 OAKLAND: NORTHWEST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
95.9%
95.6%
95.8%
95.8%
97.0%
96.5%
97.9%
94.3%
95.5%
97.1%
96.2%
94.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
97.0%
97.3%
97.0%
97.0%
97.5%
97.7%
98.4%
96.5%
96.4%
95.0%
97.0%
97.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.7%
99.2%
98.1%
97.3%
96.3%
98.1%
99.1%
97.3%
97.3%
96.3%
97.7%
97.6%
n.a.
4Q 13
97.8%
99.1%
98.1%
97.5%
97.1%
97.9%
98.8%
97.5%
97.6%
95.8%
98.0%
97.1%
n.a.
1Q 14
97.9%
99.1%
97.8%
97.9%
97.2%
97.8%
99.4%
97.1%
97.8%
n.a.
98.0%
97.3%
n.a.
2Q 14
98.1%
99.2%
98.7%
97.4%
97.0%
98.3%
99.5%
97.7%
97.6%
95.0%
98.2%
97.6%
n.a.
3Q 14
97.9%
98.8%
98.4%
97.6%
94.4%
99.0%
99.4%
98.6%
96.1%
95.5%
97.5%
99.2%
n.a.
4Q 14
97.3%
94.2%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
97.5%
99.0%
98.8%
95.8%
93.2%
96.9%
98.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
98.1%
93.4%
98.1%
98.4%
98.7%
96.9%
99.1%
98.6%
97.6%
100.0%
97.7%
99.1%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,227
$840
$1,130
$1,356
$1,235
$1,471
$1,284 $1,308 $1,001
$1,013
$1,191
$1,366
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,219
$839
$1,094
$1,375
$1,215
$1,418
$1,260 $1,321
$1,019
$1,179
$1,357
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,237
$850
$1,130
$1,367
$1,339
$1,411
$1,277 $1,367 $1,023
$1,029
$1,193
$1,389
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,287
$842
$1,198
$1,404
$1,354
$1,504
$1,293 $1,398 $1,034
$1,143
$1,230
$1,487
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,310
$849
$1,199
$1,470
$1,297
$1,457
$1,357 $1,489 $1,042
n.a.
$1,233
$1,547
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,359
$850
$1,249
$1,512
$1,382
$1,557
$1,395 $1,504 $1,045
$1,207
$1,288
$1,587
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,375
$873
$1,261
$1,540
$1,363
$1,642
$1,421 $1,504 $1,085
$1,139
$1,308
$1,596
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,365
$847
$1,239
$1,535
$1,403
$1,707
$1,411 $1,460 $1,091
$1,144
$1,327
$1,492
n.a.
1Q 15
$1,432
$884
$1,330
$1,583
$1,402
$1,711
$1,439 $1,606 $1,094
$1,190
$1,368
$1,622
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.526
$1.763
$1.696
$1.441
$1.158
$1.668
$1.692 $1.523 $1.350
$1.354
$1.516
$1.559
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.521
$1.761
$1.651
$1.465
$1.121
$1.632
$1.661 $1.538 $1.339
$1.407
$1.505
$1.571
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.553
$1.816
$1.705
$1.466
$1.260
$1.650
$1.700 $1.593 $1.384
$1.408
$1.526
$1.635
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.585
$1.767
$1.782
$1.484
$1.251
$1.705
$1.704 $1.628 $1.375
$1.451
$1.549
$1.698
n.a.
1Q 14
$1.631
$1.817
$1.810
$1.545
$1.166
$1.703
$1.779 $1.734 $1.410
n.a.
$1.565
$1.821
n.a.
2Q 14
$1.682
$1.815
$1.866
$1.598
$1.274
$1.797
$1.850 $1.751 $1.397
$1.608
$1.627
$1.844
n.a.
3Q 14
$1.723
$1.864
$1.902
$1.640
$1.256
$1.920
$1.906 $1.752 $1.468
$1.521
$1.671
$1.879
n.a.
4Q 14
$1.704
$1.809
$1.861
$1.635
$1.297
$1.937
$1.860 $1.701 $1.475
$1.560
$1.686
$1.757
n.a.
1Q 15
$1.768
$1.888
$1.982
$1.676
$1.295
$1.940
$1.896 $1.871 $1.455
$1.608
$1.717
$1.909
n.a.
1Q 13
3.3%
8.8%
6.3%
0.6%
2.5%
5.0%
7.3%
-0.5%
5.3%
-1.1%
5.2%
-0.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
5.2%
8.7%
8.2%
4.1%
-6.4%
5.5%
6.1%
7.2%
2.1%
4.4%
4.9%
6.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.6%
6.4%
5.3%
0.6%
0.3%
2.6%
4.0%
0.7%
4.3%
1.2%
3.3%
0.8%
n.a.
4Q 13
4.4%
8.1%
8.2%
1.4%
3.1%
3.0%
3.5%
5.8%
4.1%
14.6%
3.0%
8.2%
n.a.
1Q 14
6.2%
-0.1%
5.7%
7.1%
5.5%
1.7%
3.7%
13.9%
4.2%
n.a.
2.7%
16.9%
n.a.
2Q 14
10.3%
0.2%
12.5%
8.9%
15.1%
8.4%
10.8%
13.9%
7.1%
16.5%
8.4%
15.8%
n.a.
3Q 14
11.0%
2.7%
11.1%
12.2%
2.6%
16.4%
13.2%
10.0%
5.9%
8.3%
9.7%
14.9%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.7%
2.9%
4.8%
10.8%
3.6%
14.3%
9.1%
4.5%
4.4%
8.4%
8.9%
4.5%
n.a.
1Q 15
8.9%
3.7%
9.3%
9.0%
9.4%
12.7%
9.5%
7.9%
6.0%
n.a.
10.8%
4.9%
n.a.
1Q 13
2.8%
9.7%
5.9%
-0.3%
0.8%
2.9%
7.7%
-1.6%
4.9%
1.2%
4.5%
-1.1%
n.a.
$986
2Q 13
6.1%
7.9%
9.7%
5.0%
-7.0%
7.7%
7.4%
9.3%
1.5%
1.6%
5.3%
8.8%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.6%
6.4%
5.8%
0.2%
-0.6%
3.8%
4.2%
0.7%
3.7%
-1.0%
3.0%
1.7%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
4.8%
8.2%
9.1%
1.7%
0.7%
4.4%
4.1%
7.1%
2.7%
13.7%
3.1%
9.6%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
8.2%
3.4%
7.7%
9.2%
5.7%
3.0%
5.2%
16.7%
6.5%
n.a.
4.5%
19.6%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
11.4%
2.1%
14.2%
9.3%
14.6%
9.0%
11.9%
15.1%
8.3%
16.5%
9.6%
16.4%
n.a.
3Q 14
11.2%
2.3%
11.4%
12.5%
0.7%
17.3%
13.5%
11.3%
4.7%
7.5%
9.5%
16.5%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.2%
-2.0%
4.2%
10.8%
4.0%
13.9%
9.3%
5.8%
2.6%
5.8%
7.8%
6.2%
n.a.
1Q 15
9.1%
-2.0%
9.6%
9.5%
10.9%
11.8%
9.2%
9.4%
5.8%
n.a.
10.5%
6.7%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 13
0
0
(168)
(49)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
13,222
5,442
41.2%
2Q 13
0
0
146
112
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
13,222
5,399
40.8%
3Q 13
0
0
65
1
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
13,222
5,623
42.5%
4Q 13
0
0
15
63
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
13,222
5,129
38.8%
1Q 14
0
0
4
247
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
13,222
5,219
39.5%
2Q 14
0
0
29
142
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
13,222
5,026
38.0%
3Q 14
0
0
(23)
25
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 14
13,222
5,452
41.2%
4Q 14
0
0
(40)
(18)
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 14
13,222
5,443
41.2%
1Q 15
0
0
62
35
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 15
13,222
5,092
38.5%
© 2015 MPF Research
Ann
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
Period
BAY AREA | 94
5 OAKLAND: CONCORD/MARTINEZ
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET
14,882
7,394
49.7%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
42
0.1%
4
42
0
15
293
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
97.6%
0.1
1.3
97.6%
95.1%
96.7%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$1,634
$1.988
2.1%
8.3%
9.8%
‐3.4%
5.4%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
2.2%
9.6%
10.0%
‐1.3%
5.9%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
0
11
97.7%
0.1
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
14%
Submarket
Metro
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 95
5 OAKLAND: CONCORD/MARTINEZ
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
5
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Casara Canyon
720 Shell Av e, Martinez, CA 94553
Developer
Priv ate Dev eloper
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Conv entional
42
3
12/13 12/14
Total Units: 42
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94518, 94519, 94520, 94521, 94523, 94553, 94569
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 96
5 OAKLAND: CONCORD/MARTINEZ
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.7%
97.4%
97.1%
96.3%
97.2%
97.6%
97.8%
95.8%
97.2%
96.0%
96.5%
97.9%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.9%
98.7%
97.2%
96.8%
95.3%
98.7%
100.0% 96.6%
96.4%
97.7%
96.7%
98.9%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.2%
98.7%
97.4%
97.1%
95.8%
98.0%
98.3%
97.8%
96.9%
96.1%
97.1%
98.0%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.6%
98.7%
97.2%
96.1%
96.1%
95.5%
100.0% 96.5%
96.2%
98.8%
96.6%
96.1%
100.0%
1Q 14
96.3%
100.0%
97.3%
95.3%
97.4%
95.2%
100.0% 94.4%
97.0%
99.0%
96.3%
95.7%
99.0%
2Q 14
97.1%
97.3%
97.5%
96.6%
98.0%
95.2%
95.0%
96.8%
97.2%
98.3%
97.2%
95.6%
100.0%
3Q 14
97.3%
98.7%
97.6%
97.0%
98.0%
98.5%
95.0%
97.0%
96.9%
98.6%
97.2%
98.7%
100.0%
4Q 14
97.5%
100.0%
98.1%
96.9%
97.7%
95.4%
100.0% 97.5%
97.5%
98.0%
97.6%
95.9%
100.0%
1Q 15
97.6%
100.0%
98.0%
97.3%
97.7%
96.5%
98.3%
97.3%
99.0%
97.7%
96.9%
100.0%
1Q 13
$1,386
$1,012
$1,220
$1,506
$1,647
$1,947
$1,286 $1,414 $1,344
$1,173
$1,338
$1,855
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,390
$1,020
$1,226
$1,511
$1,651
$1,951
$1,322 $1,431 $1,345
$1,118
$1,342
$1,859
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,483
$1,160
$1,303
$1,607
$1,733
$2,097
$1,360 $1,600 $1,396
$1,212
$1,433
$1,991
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,496
$1,146
$1,320
$1,634
$1,708
$2,148
$1,201 $1,529 $1,438
$1,241
$1,449
$2,036
$876
1Q 14
$1,526
$1,294
$1,319
$1,671
$1,766
$2,126
$1,201 $1,586 $1,441
$1,313
$1,486
$2,017
$876
2Q 14
$1,533
$1,287
$1,331
$1,696
$1,687
$2,299
$1,493 $1,586 $1,443
$1,329
$1,482
$2,169
$876
3Q 14
$1,548
$1,169
$1,344
$1,718
$1,750
$2,406
$1,448 $1,604 $1,480
$1,302
$1,493
$2,269
$876
4Q 14
$1,591
$1,210
$1,385
$1,760
$1,773
$2,366
$1,525 $1,632 $1,526
$1,373
$1,541
$2,257
$876
1Q 15
$1,634
$1,208
$1,428
$1,793
$1,813
$2,382
$1,563 $1,672 $1,558
$1,452
$1,588
$2,255
$876
1Q 13
$1.670
$2.107
$1.833
$1.606
$1.351
$2.026
$1.762 $1.752 $1.597
$1.492
$1.633
$1.988
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.687
$2.124
$1.845
$1.625
$1.360
$2.031
$1.812 $1.778 $1.600
$1.504
$1.651
$1.992
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.770
$2.413
$1.947
$1.702
$1.422
$2.182
$1.864 $1.913 $1.660
$1.538
$1.730
$2.133
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.821
$2.385
$1.985
$1.765
$1.416
$2.236
$1.649 $1.933 $1.714
$1.653
$1.783
$2.182
$1.369
1Q 14
$1.816
$2.273
$1.974
$1.765
$1.465
$2.213
$1.650 $1.916 $1.715
$1.628
$1.781
$2.161
$1.369
2Q 14
$1.861
$2.268
$2.009
$1.820
$1.399
$2.394
$2.047 $1.927 $1.744
$1.746
$1.817
$2.324
$1.369
3Q 14
$1.900
$2.432
$2.043
$1.853
$1.452
$2.505
$1.985 $1.967 $1.789
$1.762
$1.852
$2.432
$1.369
4Q 14
$1.947
$2.520
$2.112
$1.891
$1.471
$2.463
$2.090 $1.990 $1.840
$1.856
$1.904
$2.418
$1.369
1Q 15
$1.988
$2.514
$2.158
$1.936
$1.504
$2.480
$2.142 $2.039 $1.859
$1.951
$1.950
$2.416
$1.369
1Q 13
3.9%
2.4%
3.7%
4.3%
0.3%
1.7%
6.4%
4.1%
3.2%
9.0%
4.2%
2.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
4.1%
7.7%
4.7%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.8%
5.7%
3.8%
3.6%
6.6%
4.0%
5.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
7.3%
17.3%
8.1%
6.7%
6.9%
6.5%
5.4%
9.8%
6.1%
7.0%
7.5%
6.2%
n.a.
4Q 13
6.9%
10.3%
8.4%
6.4%
2.3%
3.3%
11.2%
11.0%
5.9%
3.4%
7.5%
3.9%
n.a.
1Q 14
8.6%
13.4%
9.7%
8.0%
8.5%
9.2%
2.4%
10.8%
7.0%
9.6%
8.6%
8.7%
n.a.
2Q 14
9.8%
11.3%
10.6%
10.0%
1.6%
17.9%
12.9%
10.0%
7.6%
7.4%
8.7%
16.6%
n.a.
97.6%
3Q 14
5.7%
0.8%
5.3%
6.4%
1.5%
14.8%
6.5%
1.0%
6.2%
7.8%
4.6%
14.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
6.6%
5.3%
6.5%
7.0%
3.8%
10.1%
19.8%
3.6%
6.4%
11.6%
6.0%
10.8%
0.0%
1Q 15
8.3%
3.4%
8.9%
8.5%
2.7%
12.0%
8.5%
4.8%
8.8%
13.7%
7.9%
11.8%
0.0%
1Q 13
3.4%
-0.2%
3.4%
3.6%
-0.7%
3.0%
7.0%
2.8%
3.0%
7.4%
3.4%
3.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
4.4%
7.7%
5.5%
4.2%
-1.3%
6.5%
5.7%
3.5%
3.3%
9.6%
4.2%
6.5%
n.a.
3Q 13
7.1%
18.6%
7.7%
6.7%
6.7%
6.5%
5.0%
10.4%
5.8%
5.8%
7.3%
6.0%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
6.2%
18.1%
7.8%
5.3%
2.3%
1.2%
12.9%
10.5%
4.9%
4.4%
6.9%
2.3%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
8.2%
16.0%
9.9%
7.0%
8.7%
6.8%
4.6%
9.4%
6.8%
12.6%
8.4%
6.5%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
10.0%
9.9%
10.9%
9.8%
4.3%
14.4%
7.9%
10.2%
8.4%
8.0%
9.2%
13.3%
n.a.
3Q 14
5.8%
0.8%
5.5%
6.3%
3.7%
15.3%
3.2%
0.2%
6.2%
10.3%
4.7%
14.7%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.5%
6.6%
7.4%
7.8%
5.4%
10.0%
19.8%
4.6%
7.7%
10.8%
7.0%
10.6%
0.0%
1Q 15
9.6%
3.4%
9.6%
10.5%
3.0%
13.3%
6.8%
8.0%
9.1%
13.7%
9.3%
13.0%
1.0%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
14,860
6,562
44.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
14,860
6,575
44.2%
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
14,860
6,840
46.0%
(91)
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
14,860
6,451
43.4%
(62)
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
14,860
6,516
43.8%
20
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 14
14,860
7,101
47.8%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
0
(78)
(61)
2Q 13
0
0
38
45
3Q 13
0
0
24
(37)
4Q 13
0
0
(65)
1Q 14
0
0
(60)
2Q 14
0
0
132
CHANGE
Qtrly
3Q 14
0
0
20
8
-0.1%
-0.1%
3Q 14
14,840
7,562
51.0%
4Q 14
42
42
91
257
0.3%
0.1%
4Q 14
14,882
7,480
50.3%
1Q 15
0
42
15
293
0.0%
0.1%
1Q 15
14,882
7,394
49.7%
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 97
6 OAKLAND: NORTHEAST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
SUBMARKET
9,773
7,143
73.1%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
0
‐1.3%
49
330
0
‐57
‐81
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
97.0%
0.8
0.0
97.4%
94.3%
95.8%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$1,286
$1.522
1.8%
8.7%
9.6%
‐2.8%
3.8%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
3Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
2Q
13
2.6%
8.7%
10.6%
‐2.3%
4.4%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
0
9
97.1%
0.1
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
15%
Submarket
Metro
10%
5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2015 MPF Research
0%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 98
6 OAKLAND: NORTHEAST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94505, 94509, 94511, 94513, 94514, 94517, 94531, 94548, 94561, 94565
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 99
6 OAKLAND: NORTHEAST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q 13
95.8%
n.a.
95.7%
95.7%
97.6%
97.7%
96.9%
95.5%
93.3%
98.0%
95.7%
98.1%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.4%
n.a.
96.5%
96.2%
97.1%
97.2%
97.4%
96.1%
95.9%
95.1%
96.3%
100.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
96.8%
95.0%
96.8%
96.8%
97.5%
97.9%
96.7%
96.4%
96.5%
96.1%
96.8%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.6%
n.a.
96.2%
96.8%
96.9%
97.0%
97.6%
96.7%
95.3%
95.1%
96.6%
95.8%
n.a.
1Q 14
97.0%
n.a.
97.2%
96.8%
97.1%
97.2%
98.0%
96.4%
97.4%
100.0%
97.0%
97.2%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.4%
n.a.
97.3%
97.5%
97.7%
97.2%
99.1%
97.1%
97.9%
99.0%
97.5%
95.5%
n.a.
3Q 14
95.8%
n.a.
95.9%
95.6%
97.1%
96.2%
97.2%
95.3%
95.8%
97.4%
95.9%
94.1%
n.a.
4Q 14
96.2%
95.0%
96.4%
95.9%
97.6%
96.5%
96.9%
96.2%
95.7%
96.5%
96.3%
94.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
97.0%
n.a.
97.1%
96.9%
97.3%
97.2%
97.6%
97.2%
95.9%
97.1%
97.2%
94.8%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,117
n.a.
$971
$1,192
$1,346
$1,274
$1,208 $1,114
$897
$900
$1,135
$856
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,143
n.a.
$986
$1,222
$1,417
$1,295
$1,080 $1,167
$919
$915
$1,150
$737
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,185
$1,522
$1,031
$1,267
$1,409
$1,394
$1,101 $1,186
$936
$917
$1,193
$726
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,199
n.a.
$1,068
$1,271
$1,378
$1,295
$1,136 $1,261
$934
$925
$1,195
$1,249
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,193
n.a.
$1,050
$1,277
$1,402
$1,273
$1,140 $1,247
$918
$995
$1,200
$1,115
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,245
n.a.
$1,074
$1,347
$1,443
$1,333
$1,142 $1,317
$929
$1,075
$1,264
$946
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,243
n.a.
$1,078
$1,334
$1,454
$1,350
$1,163 $1,290 $1,003
$985
$1,261
$965
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,288
$2,000
$1,142
$1,370
$1,417
$1,440
$1,153 $1,315 $1,030
$1,031
$1,308
$963
n.a.
1Q 15
$1,286
n.a.
$1,140
$1,369
$1,455
$1,385
$1,189 $1,347 $1,019
$1,025
$1,306
$967
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.312
n.a.
$1.432
$1.290
$1.092
$1.351
$1.404 $1.356 $1.109
$1.236
$1.324
$1.119
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.352
n.a.
$1.477
$1.327
$1.125
$1.360
$1.386 $1.424 $1.131
$1.257
$1.353
$1.266
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.406
$3.361
$1.544
$1.372
$1.119
$1.491
$1.412 $1.447 $1.152
$1.260
$1.408
$1.247
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.418
n.a.
$1.605
$1.377
$1.122
$1.358
$1.457 $1.555 $1.149
$1.271
$1.403
$1.661
n.a.
1Q 14
$1.418
n.a.
$1.583
$1.379
$1.141
$1.365
$1.461 $1.537 $1.127
$1.367
$1.408
$1.550
n.a.
2Q 14
$1.472
n.a.
$1.612
$1.456
$1.175
$1.434
$1.464 $1.604 $1.141
$1.477
$1.486
$1.237
n.a.
3Q 14
$1.471
n.a.
$1.617
$1.452
$1.185
$1.448
$1.491 $1.575 $1.234
$1.324
$1.483
$1.261
n.a.
4Q 14
$1.528
$4.415
$1.714
$1.488
$1.155
$1.566
$1.479 $1.605 $1.267
$1.385
$1.543
$1.259
n.a.
1Q 15
$1.522
n.a.
$1.709
$1.490
$1.186
$1.484
$1.525 $1.644 $1.255
$1.408
$1.536
$1.264
n.a.
1Q 13
1.6%
n.a.
2.4%
1.9%
-3.2%
-0.1%
7.7%
9.1%
2.1%
-9.7%
n.a.
2Q 13
3.1%
n.a.
1.8%
4.2%
0.6%
1.1%
-1.3%
4.5%
1.7%
7.6%
3.1%
0.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
5.1%
n.a.
5.9%
5.5%
-0.9%
2.1%
5.9%
7.1%
3.2%
7.9%
5.1%
n.a.
n.a.
4.0%
-4.9%
High-Rise
4Q 13
6.3%
n.a.
7.7%
7.2%
-3.2%
-0.6%
6.7%
11.4%
3.6%
13.5%
6.7%
-1.1%
n.a.
1Q 14
6.8%
n.a.
6.1%
7.5%
4.8%
2.6%
-1.2%
10.2%
3.7%
10.6%
6.7%
7.9%
n.a.
2Q 14
9.6%
n.a.
9.6%
10.3%
4.7%
6.2%
5.7%
13.2%
3.0%
17.5%
9.7%
-1.5%
n.a.
3Q 14
7.8%
n.a.
7.8%
7.9%
7.0%
6.8%
5.6%
8.8%
7.2%
7.4%
7.9%
0.0%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.5%
n.a.
10.4%
6.6%
2.7%
7.7%
1.5%
7.2%
10.3%
10.8%
7.5%
5.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
8.7%
n.a.
12.1%
7.5%
3.8%
8.7%
4.4%
9.9%
7.5%
3.0%
8.9%
4.7%
n.a.
1Q 13
0.9%
n.a.
1.5%
1.2%
-2.6%
-0.4%
6.9%
2.7%
-4.5%
10.0%
1.5%
-11.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
4.1%
n.a.
3.8%
4.5%
1.9%
4.4%
-1.1%
4.3%
3.2%
7.6%
3.3%
17.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
5.7%
n.a.
6.8%
5.9%
-0.4%
1.9%
5.4%
7.6%
5.4%
8.9%
5.6%
n.a.
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
7.1%
n.a.
8.7%
8.0%
-3.3%
-0.7%
6.4%
12.3%
6.0%
12.5%
7.6%
-1.3%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
8.0%
n.a.
7.6%
8.6%
4.3%
2.1%
-0.1%
11.1%
7.8%
12.6%
8.0%
7.0%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
10.6%
n.a.
10.4%
11.6%
5.3%
6.2%
7.4%
14.2%
5.0%
21.4%
10.9%
-6.0%
n.a.
3Q 14
6.8%
n.a.
6.9%
6.7%
6.6%
5.1%
6.1%
7.7%
6.5%
8.7%
7.0%
-5.9%
n.a.
4Q 14
7.1%
n.a.
10.6%
5.7%
3.4%
7.2%
0.8%
6.7%
10.7%
12.2%
7.2%
4.4%
n.a.
1Q 15
8.7%
n.a.
12.0%
7.6%
4.0%
8.7%
4.0%
10.7%
6.0%
0.1%
9.1%
2.3%
n.a.
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
Ann
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1.1%
1Q 13
9,843
6,527
66.3%
0.0%
2Q 13
9,843
6,751
68.6%
3Q 13
9,897
6,955
70.3%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
9,897
6,994
70.7%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
9,897
7,089
71.6%
0.5%
2Q 14
9,897
6,801
68.7%
0.0%
3Q 14
9,897
7,167
72.4%
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 14
9,897
7,291
73.7%
-1.3%
-1.3%
1Q 15
9,773
7,143
73.1%
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
110
10
52
0.0%
2Q 13
0
0
51
91
0.0%
3Q 13
54
54
67
89
0.5%
0.5%
4Q 13
0
54
(21)
143
0.0%
0.5%
1Q 14
0
54
34
154
0.0%
0.5%
2Q 14
0
54
48
160
0.0%
3Q 14
0
0
(175)
(89)
0.0%
4Q 14
0
0
62
(9)
1Q 15
0
0
(57)
(81)
© 2015 MPF Research
Qtrly
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
BAY AREA | 100
7 OAKLAND: WALNUT CREEK/LAFAYETTE
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
12,349
5,575
45.1%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
432
3.6%
158
477
0
103
735
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
98.2%
1.3
1.3
98.7%
94.8%
96.8%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$2,007
$2.535
2.1%
10.8%
16.0%
‐2.4%
7.9%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
3.4%
12.1%
18.6%
0.5%
8.5%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
367
311
97.8%
‐0.4
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
2.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
Annual
1.5k
1.0k
0.5k
0.0k
-0.5k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
15%
Submarket
Metro
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 101
7 OAKLAND: WALNUT CREEK/LAFAYETTE
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
7
7
7
7
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Merrill Gardens at Lafayette
1010 2nd St, Lafayette, CA 94549
Brio
161 N Civ ic Dr, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Orinda
2 Irwin Way, Orinda, CA 94563
Arbodela
1550 3rd Av e, Walnut Creek, CA 94597
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
SRM Dev elopment LLC
Senior
17
3
11/12 05/14
SummerHill Apartment Communities
Conv entional
300
4
12/12 09/14
Eden Housing Inc
Senior
67
4
01/13 09/14
SAHA
Affordable
48
3
02/14 12/14
Total Units: 432
Sub#
7
7
7
7
Properties Under Construction
Ascent Walnut Creek
1960 N Main St, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Arroyo (The)
1250 Arroyo Way, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
1500 California
1500 N California Blv d, Walnut Creek, CA 94596
Terraces of Lafayette
1191 Pleasant Hill Rd, Lafayette, CA 94549
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
126
4
10/13 06/15
Hall Equities Group
Conv entional
100
6
10/13 09/15
Laconia Dev elopment LLC
Conv entional
141
6
09/14 12/15
O’Brien Land Company LLC
Conv entional
315
3
01/15 07/16
Total Units: 682
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94507, 94549, 94556, 94563, 94595, 94596, 94597, 94598
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 102
7 OAKLAND: WALNUT CREEK/LAFAYETTE
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.4%
96.7%
95.7%
97.0%
100.0%
98.3%
97.0%
94.4%
95.2%
98.7%
96.5%
96.1%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.7%
97.2%
95.9%
97.3%
98.9%
96.6%
96.5%
92.3%
97.8%
99.6%
96.9%
96.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.4%
97.5%
97.0%
97.6%
100.0%
98.3%
96.9%
94.4%
97.9%
99.8%
97.4%
97.3%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.8%
96.1%
96.6%
97.1%
98.8%
97.5%
94.6%
94.8%
97.8%
98.5%
97.4%
95.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.9%
97.5%
96.7%
97.0%
98.8%
99.6%
95.4%
95.3%
97.8%
98.4%
97.3%
95.8%
n.a.
2Q 14
97.7%
98.7%
97.3%
97.9%
97.5%
99.4%
98.8%
96.2%
97.5%
98.3%
97.4%
98.4%
n.a.
3Q 14
98.7%
99.0%
98.8%
98.7%
97.8%
98.6%
98.8%
98.4%
99.1%
98.6%
98.9%
98.5%
n.a.
4Q 14
96.9%
97.2%
96.3%
97.4%
99.1%
94.6%
97.1%
94.8%
97.3%
99.6%
97.1%
95.8%
n.a.
1Q 15
98.2%
98.6%
98.2%
98.0%
97.6%
99.1%
97.1%
97.9%
98.1%
98.3%
98.3%
97.5%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,641
$1,338
$1,517
$1,858
$2,603
$2,525
$1,810 $1,697 $1,610
$1,310
$1,572
$1,815
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,651
$1,337
$1,525
$1,869
$2,079
$2,568
$1,799 $1,684 $1,634
$1,362
$1,593
$1,813
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,688
$1,324
$1,593
$1,864
$2,226
$2,661
$1,686 $1,818 $1,685
$1,403
$1,660
$1,773
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,694
$1,379
$1,564
$1,893
$2,340
$2,616
$1,820 $1,772 $1,666
$1,422
$1,636
$1,852
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,749
$1,452
$1,591
$1,987
$2,325
$2,593
$1,968 $1,726 $1,763
$1,410
$1,686
$1,940
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,770
$1,457
$1,624
$2,004
$2,390
$3,072
$1,982 $1,838 $1,712
$1,445
$1,678
$2,027
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,937
$1,618
$1,782
$2,183
$2,539
$2,821
$2,172 $1,991 $1,787
$1,490
$1,793
$2,264
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,944
$1,640
$1,791
$2,153
$2,444
$2,805
$2,385 $1,973 $1,882
$1,442
$1,823
$2,488
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,007
$1,660
$1,844
$2,240
$2,535
$2,884
$2,300 $2,073 $1,956
$1,515
$1,879
$2,478
n.a.
1Q 13
$2.174
$2.981
$2.259
$1.991
$1.930
$2.622
$2.698 $2.148 $2.038
$1.810
$2.067
$2.444
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.169
$3.010
$2.276
$2.000
$1.632
$2.667
$2.630 $2.198 $2.069
$1.807
$2.093
$2.383
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.196
$2.980
$2.375
$1.985
$1.741
$2.764
$2.492 $2.372 $2.079
$1.855
$2.153
$2.330
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.199
$3.106
$2.328
$2.004
$1.827
$2.717
$2.722 $2.243 $2.061
$1.881
$2.113
$2.434
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.276
$3.268
$2.368
$2.099
$1.885
$2.693
$2.907 $2.252 $2.140
$1.905
$2.172
$2.598
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.322
$3.280
$2.431
$2.133
$1.866
$3.232
$2.927 $2.398 $2.125
$1.929
$2.200
$2.664
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.497
$3.497
$2.628
$2.282
$1.965
$3.015
$3.207 $2.597 $2.218
$1.976
$2.337
$2.851
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.456
$3.354
$2.659
$2.237
$1.959
$2.997
$3.825 $2.574 $2.285
$1.967
$2.347
$2.899
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.535
$3.396
$2.721
$2.335
$1.966
$3.082
$3.489 $2.704 $2.391
$2.004
$2.432
$2.876
n.a.
1Q 13
6.4%
2.9%
5.0%
8.5%
2.4%
8.1%
9.9%
3.4%
6.3%
4.0%
4.7%
8.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
6.5%
9.8%
4.6%
8.3%
0.8%
9.2%
10.5%
3.4%
5.4%
7.1%
4.9%
9.8%
n.a.
3Q 13
4.2%
8.7%
7.3%
0.4%
4.7%
1.5%
2.6%
4.9%
5.0%
4.7%
4.1%
4.5%
n.a.
4Q 13
5.0%
1.3%
4.4%
6.0%
12.0%
7.6%
1.6%
7.0%
6.2%
4.3%
5.5%
3.8%
n.a.
1Q 14
7.2%
9.6%
6.0%
7.9%
4.0%
2.7%
8.9%
5.0%
8.6%
7.1%
7.3%
6.9%
n.a.
2Q 14
8.3%
9.0%
7.1%
9.4%
6.8%
17.4%
8.9%
9.1%
6.1%
7.8%
6.8%
11.8%
n.a.
3Q 14
13.5%
17.8%
9.9%
16.8%
5.4%
13.4%
27.8%
9.5%
12.6%
6.6%
10.6%
21.4%
n.a.
4Q 14
10.3%
5.3%
11.9%
9.8%
2.1%
17.2%
9.6%
11.9%
10.2%
6.5%
10.1%
11.5%
n.a.
1Q 15
10.8%
2.4%
13.0%
9.5%
11.2%
16.7%
3.6%
20.1%
7.7%
5.5%
10.7%
11.0%
n.a.
1Q 13
5.4%
1.4%
3.9%
7.7%
2.4%
8.5%
8.5%
3.2%
3.2%
4.2%
4.3%
6.5%
n.a.
2Q 13
7.2%
11.6%
4.7%
9.2%
1.3%
6.6%
12.0%
0.8%
6.3%
9.6%
5.4%
10.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
5.3%
12.2%
7.6%
1.5%
4.7%
-0.2%
5.7%
3.6%
4.4%
7.9%
4.3%
8.0%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
5.6%
3.1%
5.1%
6.2%
10.8%
5.5%
0.6%
7.0%
8.9%
4.3%
6.7%
2.5%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
7.7%
10.4%
7.0%
7.9%
2.8%
4.0%
7.3%
5.9%
11.2%
6.8%
8.1%
6.6%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
9.3%
10.5%
8.5%
10.0%
5.4%
20.2%
11.2%
13.0%
5.8%
6.5%
7.3%
14.1%
n.a.
3Q 14
14.8%
19.3%
11.7%
17.9%
3.2%
13.7%
29.7%
13.5%
13.8%
5.4%
12.1%
22.6%
n.a.
4Q 14
10.4%
6.4%
11.6%
10.1%
2.4%
14.3%
12.1%
11.9%
9.7%
7.6%
9.8%
12.3%
n.a.
1Q 15
12.1%
3.5%
14.5%
10.5%
10.0%
16.2%
5.3%
22.7%
8.0%
5.4%
11.7%
12.7%
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 13
0
0
26
(84)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
11,872
5,292
44.6%
2Q 13
0
0
28
65
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
11,872
6,068
51.1%
3Q 13
0
0
60
99
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
11,872
6,023
50.7%
4Q 13
0
0
(58)
71
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
11,872
5,553
46.8%
1Q 14
45
45
54
101
0.4%
0.4%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
11,917
6,097
51.2%
2Q 14
17
62
120
192
0.1%
0.5%
2Q 14
11,934
6,050
50.7%
3Q 14
367
429
434
657
3.1%
3.6%
3Q 14
12,301
6,610
53.7%
4Q 14
48
477
(101)
807
0.4%
4.0%
4Q 14
12,349
5,573
45.1%
1Q 15
0
432
103
735
0.0%
3.6%
1Q 15
12,349
5,575
45.1%
© 2015 MPF Research
CHANGE
BAY AREA | 103
8 OAKLAND: SAN RAMON/DUBLIN
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
11,303
7,993
70.7%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
0
0.0%
233
742
0
‐19
334
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
96.6%
‐0.1
2.3
97.9%
94.3%
96.9%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$2,056
$2.334
0.5%
8.6%
11.1%
0.2%
7.1%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
0.4%
10.9%
11.4%
2.9%
7.3%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
99%
Submarket
Metro
98%
97%
96%
95%
93%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
13%
Submarket
Metro
11%
9%
7%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q
14
94%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
0
22
96.8%
0.2
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
5%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 104
8 OAKLAND: SAN RAMON/DUBLIN
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94506, 94526, 94528, 94568, 94582, 94583
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 105
8 OAKLAND: SAN RAMON/DUBLIN
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
96.7%
96.4%
96.9%
96.6%
95.4%
96.5%
97.4%
96.4%
100.0%
n.a.
96.9%
95.6%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.9%
97.3%
96.9%
96.8%
97.8%
97.4%
97.1%
95.9%
99.4%
100.0%
97.1%
95.4%
n.a.
3Q 13
97.3%
99.1%
97.4%
97.2%
97.9%
97.6%
97.7%
96.7%
100.0%
n.a.
97.5%
96.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
96.4%
95.5%
96.9%
96.0%
96.9%
97.1%
96.1%
95.7%
94.9%
n.a.
96.2%
97.4%
n.a.
1Q 14
94.3%
98.2%
93.2%
95.1%
94.0%
92.8%
95.4%
95.8%
100.0%
n.a.
96.2%
84.8%
n.a.
2Q 14
96.9%
97.3%
96.9%
96.6%
98.3%
96.8%
97.9%
96.2%
100.0%
n.a.
96.9%
96.9%
n.a.
3Q 14
97.9%
98.2%
97.9%
97.9%
98.0%
98.6%
98.2%
96.7%
98.7%
n.a.
97.7%
98.9%
n.a.
4Q 14
96.7%
98.1%
97.3%
96.1%
97.8%
97.6%
96.1%
95.5%
98.7%
n.a.
96.4%
98.2%
n.a.
1Q 15
96.6%
98.2%
96.6%
96.5%
97.0%
96.8%
95.8%
96.5%
100.0%
n.a.
96.6%
96.7%
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,731
$1,312
$1,538
$1,853
$2,018
$1,702
$1,865 $1,732 $1,541
n.a.
$1,733
$1,719
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,802
$1,411
$1,552
$1,963
$2,190
$1,758
$1,913 $1,809 $1,620
$1,421
$1,804
$1,788
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,876
$1,443
$1,579
$2,077
$2,208
$1,761
$2,075 $1,923 $1,367
n.a.
$1,896
$1,756
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,843
$1,351
$1,613
$1,988
$2,264
$1,785
$1,961 $1,854 $1,713
n.a.
$1,844
$1,837
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,905
$1,399
$1,660
$2,067
$2,332
$1,858
$1,989 $1,933 $1,491
n.a.
$1,898
$1,942
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,951
$1,401
$1,726
$2,095
$2,381
$1,879
$2,103 $1,978 $1,491
n.a.
$1,954
$1,935
n.a.
3Q 14
$2,038
$1,505
$1,792
$2,198
$2,439
$1,973
$2,137 $2,071 $2,114
n.a.
$2,041
$2,020
n.a.
4Q 14
$2,059
$1,651
$1,827
$2,199
$2,549
$2,030
$2,127 $2,072 $1,897
n.a.
$2,047
$2,106
n.a.
1Q 15
$2,056
$1,578
$1,817
$2,209
$2,439
$1,969
$2,196 $2,134 $1,896
n.a.
$2,072
$1,983
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.963
$3.005
$2.144
$1.884
$1.717
$1.904
$2.053 $2.013 $1.957
n.a.
$1.952
$2.026
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.062
$3.232
$2.177
$2.010
$1.854
$1.996
$2.151 $2.102 $2.058
$1.773
$2.051
$2.141
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.141
$3.306
$2.216
$2.121
$1.865
$1.993
$2.333 $2.235 $1.882
n.a.
$2.153
$2.069
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.108
$3.095
$2.263
$2.034
$1.917
$2.026
$2.205 $2.155 $2.177
n.a.
$2.095
$2.200
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.168
$3.205
$2.313
$2.101
$1.950
$2.091
$2.236 $2.247 $2.052
n.a.
$2.150
$2.265
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.217
$3.209
$2.408
$2.128
$1.988
$2.109
$2.364 $2.299 $2.052
n.a.
$2.214
$2.233
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.317
$3.448
$2.502
$2.236
$2.036
$2.214
$2.403 $2.407 $2.686
n.a.
$2.315
$2.331
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.330
$3.320
$2.534
$2.227
$2.100
$2.259
$2.392 $2.409 $2.409
n.a.
$2.321
$2.364
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.334
$3.614
$2.523
$2.250
$2.049
$2.210
$2.428 $2.481 $2.409
n.a.
$2.344
$2.288
n.a.
1Q 13
6.6%
14.1%
8.6%
5.6%
2.4%
5.3%
2Q 13
7.2%
11.9%
5.9%
8.5%
0.6%
5.6%
3Q 13
8.6%
22.3%
5.1%
11.3%
3.0%
3.8%
4Q 13
6.3%
5.1%
6.7%
6.5%
1.3%
4.9%
1Q 14
9.3%
6.6%
7.2%
10.4%
11.1%
2Q 14
7.7%
-0.7%
9.4%
6.5%
10.2%
3Q 14
7.3%
4.3%
11.8%
4.7%
4Q 14
11.1%
17.7%
12.7%
1Q 15
8.6%
12.8%
9.4%
8.6%
7.4%
9.1%
n.a.
6.1%
8.9%
n.a.
5.3%
9.9%
11.1%
n.a.
7.8%
3.7%
n.a.
12.3%
13.9%
6.7%
n.a.
9.9%
1.8%
n.a.
5.1%
8.4%
12.0%
n.a.
6.9%
2.5%
n.a.
7.6%
8.9%
11.6%
12.5%
n.a.
10.2%
4.0%
n.a.
5.2%
9.9%
9.3%
8.8%
n.a.
8.0%
5.5%
n.a.
8.6%
9.2%
3.0%
7.7%
17.6%
n.a.
7.2%
7.7%
n.a.
10.0%
11.3%
12.0%
8.5%
11.8%
10.7%
n.a.
10.9%
12.7%
n.a.
8.0%
8.7%
7.6%
7.6%
10.4%
17.3%
n.a.
9.0%
6.8%
n.a.
1Q 13
6.2%
14.1%
8.2%
5.3%
-0.6%
4.7%
9.4%
6.5%
9.7%
n.a.
5.8%
8.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
7.1%
11.9%
5.7%
8.4%
1.4%
5.4%
6.7%
9.3%
11.1%
n.a.
7.8%
2.6%
n.a.
3Q 13
8.7%
27.8%
5.2%
11.3%
3.0%
4.2%
12.0%
13.8%
11.8%
n.a.
10.3%
0.1%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
5.6%
4.2%
6.1%
5.7%
1.7%
5.1%
3.4%
7.4%
6.9%
n.a.
5.8%
4.1%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
6.9%
8.4%
3.5%
8.9%
9.7%
3.9%
6.9%
11.0%
12.5%
n.a.
9.5%
-6.8%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
7.7%
-0.7%
9.4%
6.3%
10.7%
4.6%
10.7%
9.6%
9.4%
n.a.
7.8%
7.0%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 14
7.9%
3.4%
12.3%
5.4%
8.7%
10.2%
3.5%
7.7%
16.3%
n.a.
7.4%
10.2%
4Q 14
11.4%
20.3%
13.1%
10.1%
12.2%
12.5%
8.5%
11.6%
14.5%
n.a.
11.1%
13.5%
n.a.
1Q 15
10.9%
12.8%
12.8%
9.4%
11.7%
11.6%
8.0%
11.1%
17.3%
n.a.
9.4%
18.7%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
Period
Qtrly
1Q 13
2Q 13
DEMAND
CHANGE
Ann
Qtrly
180
473
152
514
1.7%
4.6%
1Q 13
10,741
7,340
68.3%
0
473
24
401
0.0%
4.6%
2Q 13
10,741
7,953
74.0%
3Q 13
0
180
34
151
0.0%
1.7%
3Q 13
10,741
7,923
73.8%
4Q 13
562
742
522
695
5.2%
7.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
11,303
7,907
70.0%
1Q 14
0
562
(270)
261
0.0%
5.2%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
11,303
8,185
72.4%
2Q 14
0
562
323
561
0.0%
5.2%
2Q 14
11,303
8,297
73.4%
3Q 14
0
562
109
688
0.0%
5.2%
3Q 14
11,303
8,393
74.3%
4Q 14
0
0
(75)
66
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 14
11,303
8,698
77.0%
1Q 15
0
0
(19)
334
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 15
11,303
7,993
70.7%
© 2015 MPF Research
Ann
INVENTORY
Qtrly
Ann
Period
BAY AREA | 106
9 OAKLAND: LIVERMORE/PLEASANTON
1Q 2015
Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k
1Q
13
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units
Sampled Units
Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET
8,225
5,927
72.1%
METRO
199,086
72,024
36.2%
0
0
0.0%
83
415
0
15
11
78
1,512
0.6%
1,213
2,336
502
833
2,342
97.2%
0.2
0.1
98.2%
95.8%
97.0%
97.5%
0.4
0.6
97.8%
96.0%
96.9%
$1,973
$2.368
‐0.2%
9.2%
12.4%
2.6%
7.5%
$1,841
$2.218
1.4%
10.2%
11.5%
‐1.8%
6.8%
0.0%
9.3%
13.0%
3.3%
8.0%
1.8%
10.8%
11.5%
0.3%
7.4%
168
131
96.9%
‐0.3
1,374
1,139
97.4%
‐0.1
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Demand (units)
Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
Annual
0.5k
0.0k
-1.0k
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Occupancy
100%
Submarket
Metro
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
REVENUE CHANGE
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q
14
-0.5k
RENT
Monthly Rent
Rent Per Square Foot
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q
13
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY
Current Rate
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q
13
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units)
Annual Supply (units)
Annual Inventory Change
Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units)
Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units)
Quarterly Demand (units)
Annual Demand (units)
2Q
13
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2015 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
94%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
Annual Rent Change
14%
Submarket
Metro
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
BAY AREA | 107
9 OAKLAND: LIVERMORE/PLEASANTON
1Q 2015
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP
Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
9
9
9
Properties Under Construction
Anton Hacienda
5729 W Las Positas Blv d, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Owens
4789 Willow Rd, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Hacienda
4410 Hacienda Dr, Pleasanton, CA 94588
St Anton Partners
Affordable
168
4
09/13 08/15
BRE Properties Inc
Conv entional
255
4
01/15 06/16
BRE Properties Inc
Conv entional
251
4
01/15 09/16
Total Units: 674
Completed
Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 94550, 94551, 94566, 94586, 94588
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 108
9 OAKLAND: LIVERMORE/PLEASANTON
1Q 2015
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER
SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT
CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 13
95.8%
n.a.
96.1%
95.7%
95.6%
95.7%
96.0%
95.4%
96.5%
97.9%
95.8%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
97.7%
n.a.
97.7%
97.8%
96.7%
100.0%
98.0%
97.5%
97.9%
97.5%
97.7%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
97.6%
n.a.
97.9%
97.5%
97.1%
98.6%
98.1%
96.9%
98.7%
99.3%
97.6%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
96.5%
n.a.
96.4%
96.5%
96.7%
98.6%
96.7%
96.3%
95.9%
99.4%
96.5%
n.a.
1Q 14
97.1%
n.a.
96.7%
97.4%
98.2%
100.0%
97.5%
97.0%
96.3%
99.6%
97.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 14
98.2%
n.a.
97.8%
98.4%
98.5%
98.6%
99.1%
97.5%
98.5%
100.0%
98.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 14
98.0%
n.a.
98.0%
98.0%
97.8%
95.7%
99.1%
97.5%
97.7%
99.3%
98.0%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 14
97.0%
n.a.
97.2%
96.9%
95.6%
95.7%
98.2%
96.2%
97.0%
99.6%
97.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 15
97.2%
n.a.
97.3%
97.3%
95.8%
94.2%
97.8%
96.8%
97.4%
99.3%
97.2%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$1,663
n.a.
$1,457
$1,761
$2,309
$3,019
$1,840 $1,646 $1,488
$1,340
$1,663
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$1,716
n.a.
$1,507
$1,800
$2,546
$2,739
$1,780 $1,739 $1,570
$1,353
$1,716
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$1,808
n.a.
$1,593
$1,922
$2,403
$2,801
$1,892 $1,837 $1,638
$1,365
$1,808
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$1,772
n.a.
$1,560
$1,888
$2,310
$2,556
$1,802 $1,802 $1,645
$1,365
$1,772
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$1,818
n.a.
$1,606
$1,926
$2,363
$2,714
$1,843 $1,834 $1,757
$1,351
$1,818
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 14
$1,862
n.a.
$1,613
$1,999
$2,439
$2,712
$1,852 $1,907 $1,798
$1,345
$1,862
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 14
$1,954
n.a.
$1,695
$2,105
$2,459
$3,003
$1,910 $1,999 $1,952
$1,394
$1,954
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 14
$1,975
n.a.
$1,722
$2,125
$2,511
$2,783
$1,927 $2,042 $1,906
$1,439
$1,975
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 15
$1,973
n.a.
$1,741
$2,102
$2,518
$2,782
$1,932 $2,032 $1,920
$1,468
$1,973
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.955
n.a.
$2.174
$1.841
$1.959
$2.572
$2.013 $1.963 $1.805
$1.861
$1.955
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$2.053
n.a.
$2.251
$1.939
$2.161
$2.333
$2.125 $2.074 $1.881
$1.878
$2.053
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$2.174
n.a.
$2.377
$2.077
$2.040
$2.386
$2.259 $2.191 $2.028
$1.895
$2.174
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$2.131
n.a.
$2.329
$2.038
$1.960
$2.177
$2.152 $2.147 $2.045
$2.070
$2.131
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$2.178
n.a.
$2.392
$2.083
$2.005
$2.312
$2.201 $2.187 $2.093
$2.107
$2.178
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 14
$2.230
n.a.
$2.406
$2.154
$2.065
$2.311
$2.212 $2.278 $2.095
$2.103
$2.230
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 14
$2.346
n.a.
$2.528
$2.276
$2.087
$2.559
$2.281 $2.384 $2.328
$2.180
$2.346
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 14
$2.381
n.a.
$2.575
$2.300
$2.131
$2.371
$2.302 $2.436 $2.339
$2.250
$2.381
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 15
$2.368
n.a.
$2.596
$2.269
$2.132
$2.370
$2.307 $2.427 $2.276
$2.296
$2.368
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
6.6%
n.a.
8.0%
5.6%
8.6%
20.8%
9.5%
5.0%
6.4%
6.6%
6.6%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
7.2%
n.a.
9.1%
6.0%
9.2%
n.a.
6.7%
8.2%
5.7%
4.2%
7.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
11.4%
n.a.
12.8%
10.8%
8.5%
11.5%
14.6%
11.5%
7.5%
4.4%
11.4%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
8.1%
n.a.
10.4%
7.8%
-0.1%
-0.6%
4.0%
12.0%
6.4%
1.6%
8.1%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
10.1%
n.a.
11.0%
10.4%
2.3%
-10.1%
8.0%
11.4%
12.7%
5.1%
10.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 14
7.9%
n.a.
6.7%
10.2%
-4.9%
-1.0%
4.1%
9.7%
10.2%
5.0%
7.9%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 14
6.8%
n.a.
5.1%
8.4%
2.3%
7.2%
1.0%
8.8%
10.7%
5.8%
6.8%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 14
12.4%
n.a.
10.8%
13.8%
8.7%
8.9%
6.9%
15.1%
13.7%
10.1%
12.4%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 15
9.2%
n.a.
8.8%
9.7%
6.5%
2.5%
4.8%
11.0%
10.8%
10.3%
9.2%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
6.3%
n.a.
8.2%
4.8%
11.1%
16.5%
10.1%
4.2%
7.1%
6.2%
6.3%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
8.0%
n.a.
9.8%
7.0%
9.2%
n.a.
8.4%
8.7%
6.7%
3.1%
8.0%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
11.3%
n.a.
13.1%
10.4%
10.0%
14.4%
15.6%
10.8%
7.7%
4.8%
11.3%
n.a.
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 13
7.6%
n.a.
9.4%
7.6%
0.2%
-0.6%
4.1%
11.4%
5.2%
3.1%
7.6%
n.a.
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 14
11.4%
n.a.
11.6%
12.1%
4.9%
-5.8%
9.5%
13.0%
12.5%
6.8%
11.4%
n.a.
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 14
8.4%
n.a.
6.8%
10.8%
-3.1%
-2.4%
5.2%
9.7%
10.8%
7.5%
8.4%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 14
7.2%
n.a.
5.2%
8.9%
3.0%
4.3%
2.0%
9.4%
9.7%
5.8%
7.2%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 14
12.9%
n.a.
11.6%
14.2%
7.6%
6.0%
8.4%
15.0%
14.8%
10.3%
12.9%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 15
9.3%
n.a.
9.4%
9.6%
4.1%
-3.3%
5.1%
10.8%
11.9%
10.0%
9.3%
n.a.
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/
DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
0
(72)
(13)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 13
7,810
5,923
75.8%
0
139
56
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
7,810
6,051
77.5%
0
(9)
(9)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
7,810
6,066
77.7%
415
415
370
391
5.3%
5.3%
SAMPLE/
4Q 13
8,225
5,445
66.2%
0
415
48
474
0.0%
5.3%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 14
8,225
5,824
70.8%
2Q 14
0
415
93
460
0.0%
5.3%
2Q 14
8,225
5,791
70.4%
3Q 14
0
415
(12)
492
0.0%
5.3%
3Q 14
8,225
5,810
70.6%
4Q 14
0
0
(47)
71
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 14
8,225
5,922
72.0%
1Q 15
0
0
15
11
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 15
8,225
5,927
72.1%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 13
0
2Q 13
0
3Q 13
0
4Q 13
1Q 14
© 2015 MPF Research
CHANGE
BAY AREA | 109
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
BAY AREA | 110
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
1Q 2015
BAY AREA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY
(Annual Change in Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Jobs in 000's)
Annual Change
Goods Producing
Mining/Logging/Const ruct ion
Total Jobs
% of Total
National %
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
4Q14
4Q14
4Q14
14.3
18.5
16.9
14.2
15.0
428.6
13.3%
12.1%
7.9
8.2
9.5
9.1
8.6
146.2
4.5%
4.7%
Manufact uring
6.4
10.3
7.4
5.1
6.4
282.4
8.7%
7.4%
Service Providing
87.8
76.7
63.4
70.7
91.4
2,803.4
86.7%
87.9%
Trade/Transport at ion/Ut ilit ies
11.6
10.0
8.6
7.9
10.9
508.1
15.7%
19.0%
Informat ion
6.3
6.8
7.5
10.1
11.2
145.6
4.5%
2.3%
Financial Act ivit ies
1.1
0.5
-0.4
0.8
0.3
159.5
4.9%
6.3%
Professional/Business Services
24.0
22.6
17.5
15.4
34.5
652.5
20.2%
15.7%
Educat ion/Healt h Services
22.9
19.0
17.1
17.2
16.5
484.5
15.0%
15.8%
Leisure/Hospit alit y Services
16.1
11.1
7.8
11.8
13.9
344.7
10.7%
10.4%
Ot her Services
2.7
1.0
0.3
1.0
-0.1
105.6
3.3%
3.9%
Government
3.1
5.7
5.0
6.5
4.2
402.9
12.5%
14.5%
102.1
95.2
80.3
84.9
106.4
3,232.0
100.0%
100.0%
Total
200k
150k
100k
50k
0k
-50k
-100k
-150k
-200k
Unemployment Rate
Annual Employment Change
Combined Area
14%
U.S. Average
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
4Q
09
4Q
10
4Q
11
4Q
12
4Q
13
4Q
14
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Note: Due to revisions of metropolitan area definitions by the Office of Management and Budget, current employment figures for metro areas are not available at this time from MPF Research while we undergo migration to the new definitions. For current and historical employment estimates, please go to www.bls.gov.
Source: BLS
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 111
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
1Q 2015
SAN FRANCISCO AREA DEMOGRAPHICS
One-Year Five-Year
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Change
Change
Population, Age and Households
Total population
1,843,180
1,821,243
1,795,066
1,778,541
1,785,097
1,770,460
1.2%
4.1%
Under 5 years
96,600
96,543
95,718
95,314
105,090
104,323
0.1%
-7.4%
5 to 9 years
88,510
92,651
91,461
90,513
87,246
88,248
-4.5%
0.3%
10 to 14 years
91,741
84,160
83,868
81,598
85,738
82,202
9.0%
11.6%
15 to 19 years
85,168
88,737
87,293
88,794
85,666
90,970
-4.0%
-6.4%
20 to 24 years
104,580
104,555
107,813
111,315
101,076
102,573
0.0%
2.0%
25 to 34 years
315,759
308,066
296,964
292,038
299,660
229,220
2.5%
37.8%
35 to 44 years
281,252
280,131
280,088
280,454
286,218
317,202
0.4%
-11.3%
45 to 54 years
265,435
264,232
262,525
261,905
265,553
279,539
0.5%
-5.0%
55 to 59 years
123,277
124,211
117,885
117,632
114,098
122,856
-0.8%
0.3%
60 to 64 years
115,348
112,640
115,257
108,605
106,624
98,543
2.4%
17.1%
65 years and ov er
275,510
265,317
256,194
250,373
248,128
254,784
3.8%
8.1%
39.9
39.8
39.7
39.7
39.4
40.6
0.3%
-1.7%
716,289
708,157
700,955
696,213
677,299
680,076
1.1%
5.3%
High school graduate or higher
88.8%
88.3%
87.7%
87.6%
87.6%
87.2%
0.5%
1.8%
Bachelor's degree or higher
50.6%
50.1%
48.7%
48.3%
49.1%
47.8%
1.0%
5.9%
Median household income
$85,226
$78,840
$75,520
$78,247
$78,677
$81,382
8.1%
4.7%
Less than high school graduate
$20,014
$19,933
$20,235
$20,298
$18,637
$18,978
0.4%
5.5%
High school graduate
$28,504
$27,166
$27,859
$28,131
$29,121
$28,239
4.9%
0.9%
Some college or associate's degree
$39,174
$38,189
$38,293
$40,373
$38,447
$41,568
2.6%
-5.8%
Bachelor's degree
$64,515
$61,318
$60,313
$60,942
$58,539
$59,754
5.2%
8.0%
Graduate or professional degree
$92,466
$90,003
$85,215
$85,321
$81,059
$84,231
2.7%
9.8%
Median age (years)
Total households
Educational Attainment
Income Levels
*Due to revisions of metropolitan area definitions by the U.S. Census Bureau, figures may not represent congruent geographies in each time series. Sources: U.S. Census and Moody’s Analytics
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 112
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
1Q 2015
SAN JOSE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS
One-Year Five-Year
Change
Change
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
1,919,641
1,894,388
1,865,450
1,843,255
1,839,883
1,819,087
1.3%
5.5%
125,006
127,636
128,007
128,611
138,418
135,417
-2.1%
-7.7%
Population, Age and Households
Total population
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
133,241
132,283
133,019
125,195
125,184
115,247
0.7%
15.6%
10 to 14 years
121,780
118,536
114,672
120,099
119,818
122,215
2.7%
-0.4%
15 to 19 years
118,884
118,966
119,797
118,283
116,528
119,222
-0.1%
-0.3%
20 to 24 years
122,891
120,696
117,079
118,986
113,329
118,948
1.8%
3.3%
25 to 34 years
286,497
283,884
279,558
276,356
285,723
243,221
0.9%
17.8%
35 to 44 years
290,166
288,879
287,288
285,415
291,870
302,909
0.4%
-4.2%
45 to 54 years
278,052
276,573
274,127
272,675
268,708
276,146
0.5%
0.7%
55 to 59 years
121,378
114,670
113,143
104,084
98,603
104,480
5.8%
16.2%
60 to 64 years
92,455
92,888
88,748
90,244
82,078
83,773
-0.5%
10.4%
65 years and ov er
229,291
219,377
210,012
203,307
199,624
197,509
4.5%
16.1%
Median age (years)
36.7
36.6
36.3
36.2
35.7
36.9
0.3%
-0.5%
636,628
630,849
622,532
616,837
603,865
604,720
0.9%
5.3%
High school graduate or higher
86.5%
85.9%
86.9%
86.2%
85.4%
85.3%
0.7%
1.4%
Bachelor's degree or higher
46.7%
46.4%
45.1%
45.3%
43.3%
43.5%
0.6%
7.4%
Median household income
$91,533
$90,737
$84,012
$83,944
$84,483
$88,098
0.9%
3.9%
Less than high school graduate
$21,898
$20,737
$19,484
$20,597
$21,546
$23,762
5.6%
-7.8%
High school graduate
$30,226
$29,170
$28,630
$28,784
$29,637
$33,484
3.6%
-9.7%
Some college or associate's degree
$41,631
$40,552
$40,239
$40,405
$39,400
$42,826
2.7%
-2.8%
Total households
Educational Attainment
Income Levels
Bachelor's degree
$74,727
$71,026
$71,451
$69,918
$67,328
$71,801
5.2%
4.1%
Graduate or professional degree
$102,307
$101,223
$101,080
$96,610
$95,396
$100,000
1.1%
2.3%
*Due to revisions of metropolitan area definitions by the U.S. Census Bureau, figures may not represent congruent geographies in each time series. Sources: U.S. Census and Moody’s Analytics
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 113
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
1Q 2015
OAKLAND AREA DEMOGRAPHICS
One-Year Five-Year
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Change
Change
Population, Age and Households
Total population
2,673,096
2,634,317
2,595,971
2,566,779
2,532,756
2,504,071
1.5%
6.8%
Under 5 years
161,488
164,743
165,008
164,391
173,979
167,935
-2.0%
-3.8%
5 to 9 years
176,547
169,370
166,873
169,708
162,921
167,420
4.2%
5.5%
10 to 14 years
164,146
166,362
166,820
164,330
164,829
158,017
-1.3%
3.9%
15 to 19 years
168,660
169,644
169,707
173,873
165,597
172,810
-0.6%
-2.4%
20 to 24 years
176,097
176,109
172,241
167,292
157,208
169,193
0.0%
4.1%
25 to 34 years
382,428
370,280
364,037
359,171
361,601
323,050
3.3%
18.4%
35 to 44 years
383,660
380,056
375,829
376,631
380,255
379,437
0.9%
1.1%
45 to 54 years
387,387
387,817
387,640
386,609
388,877
388,672
-0.1%
-0.3%
55 to 59 years
177,492
175,283
168,075
159,519
156,015
166,273
1.3%
6.7%
60 to 64 years
151,867
147,791
147,656
145,421
132,122
126,577
2.8%
20.0%
65 years and ov er
343,324
326,862
312,085
299,834
289,352
284,687
5.0%
20.6%
37.9
37.6
37.5
37.2
37.3
37.6
0.8%
0.8%
938,265
928,671
921,885
905,293
882,351
885,924
1.0%
5.9%
High school graduate or higher
87.7%
87.5%
87.1%
87.0%
86.4%
86.7%
0.2%
1.2%
Bachelor's degree or higher
41.1%
41.1%
40.3%
39.6%
39.1%
39.1%
0.0%
5.1%
Median household income
$75,269
$71,931
$70,332
$70,415
$70,581
$73,280
4.6%
2.7%
Less than high school graduate
$20,897
$20,145
$20,640
$20,229
$21,798
$23,955
3.7%
-12.8%
High school graduate
$30,620
$31,095
$30,764
$31,017
$29,586
$32,492
-1.5%
-5.8%
Median age (years)
Total households
Educational Attainment
Income Levels
Some college or associate's degree
$40,290
$40,488
$40,192
$40,414
$39,884
$42,155
-0.5%
-4.4%
Bachelor's degree
$62,401
$61,104
$60,818
$59,562
$57,873
$59,444
2.1%
5.0%
Graduate or professional degree
$85,009
$85,856
$83,288
$81,024
$76,043
$81,973
-1.0%
3.7%
*Due to revisions of metropolitan area definitions by the U.S. Census Bureau, figures may not represent congruent geographies in each time series. Sources: U.S. Census and Moody’s Analytics
© 2015 MPF Research
BAY AREA | 114
COMBINED AREA SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS BAY AREA | 115
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: COMBINED AREA
Annual Supply
Annual Demand
Combined Area
San Jose
10k
San Francisco
Oakland
Combined Area
San Jose
15k
8k
San Francisco
Oakland
10k
6k
5k
4k
0k
2k
0k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Occupancy
99%
1Q
14
Combined Area
San Francisco
San Jose
Oakland
1Q
15
-5k
1Q
10
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Combined Area
San Jose
20%
1Q
15
San Francisco
Oakland
15%
10%
97%
5%
96%
0%
95%
-5%
-10%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Monthly Rent
Combined Area
San Jose
$3,000
1Q
14
1Q
10
1Q
15
$3.00
$2,000
$2.50
$1,500
$2.00
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions
Combined Area
San Jose
40%
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
12
1Q
13
Combined Area
San Jose
$3.50
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot
San Francisco
Oakland
$2,500
$1,000
1Q
11
Annual Rent Change
98%
$1.50
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
San Francisco
Oakland
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Revenue Change
San Francisco
Oakland
Combined Area
San Jose
20%
San Francisco
Oakland
15%
10%
30%
5%
20%
0%
10%
0%
1Q 2015
-5%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 116
SAN FRANCISCO
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
BAY AREA | 117
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Multifamily Building Permits
Supply
Annual
Quarterly
*two- and 11-month totals ending in February 2015
6k
Quarterly
6k
Annual
5k
5k
4k
4k
3k
3k
2k
2k
1k
1k
0k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15*
0k
1Q
10
Annual Inventory Change
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Existing Units
230k
3%
228k
2%
226k
224k
1%
222k
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
220k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
Quarterly
Annual
Forecast
6k
4k
2k
0k
-2k
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
BAY AREA | 118
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
OCCUPANCY
99%
Occupancy
Occupancy Comparison
98%
West
U.S.
97%
97%
96%
95%
95%
93%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Occupancy by Year Built
2000+
1970s
100%
1990s
Pre-1970
1Q
15
1Q
16
91%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Occupancy by Building Height
1980s
100%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
99%
98%
98%
96%
97%
94%
96%
92%
90%
Metro
99%
95%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
94%
1Q 14
Occupancy by Unit Type
Eff
100%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Occupancy Change
Distribution of Properties
3 BR
<-4.9%
-4.9% to -3.0%
98%
-2.9% to -1.0%
96%
-0.9% to 1.0%
1.1% to 3.0%
94%
92%
3.1% to 5.0%
>5.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Occupancy Distribution of
Properties
<84.1%
84.1% to 87.0%
87.1% to 90.0%
90.1% to 93.0%
93.1% to 96.0%
96.1% to 99.0%
>99.0%
0
© 2015 MPF Research
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 119
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
RENT CHANGE
Rent Change
Quarterly
20%
Annual
West
U.S.
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-10%
20%
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change by Building
Height
Annual Rent Change by Year Built
1980s
12%
15%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
10%
10%
5%
8%
0%
6%
-5%
-10%
Metro
20%
15%
-5%
Annual Rent Change Comparison
Forecast
4%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
2%
1Q 14
Annual Rent Change by Unit Type
Eff
30%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Rent Change Distribution
of Properties
3 BR
<-4.9%
-4.9% to 1.0%
20%
1.1% to 7.0%
10%
7.1% to 13.0%
13.1% to 19.0%
0%
-10%
19.1% to 25.0%
>25.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 120
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
MONTHLY RENT
Monthly Rent Comparison
Metro
$3,000
West
Monthly Rent by Year Built
$3,500
$2,500
$2,000
$1,000
$1,500
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Monthly Rent by Unit Type
Monthly Rent by Building Height
High-Rise
Eff
$3,500
$3,300
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$3,000
$3,100
$2,500
$2,900
$2,700
$2,000
$2,500
$1,500
$2,300
$1,000
$2,100
1980s
$2,500
$1,500
$3,500
1990s
Pre-1970
$3,000
$2,000
$500
2000+
1970s
U.S.
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Monthly Rent Distribution of
Properties
<$1,336
$1,336 to $1,845
$1,846 to $2,355
$2,356 to $2,865
$2,866 to $3,375
$3,376 to $3,885
>$3,885
0
© 2015 MPF Research
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 121
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
Rent Per Square Foot by Year Built
Rent Per Square Foot Comparison
Metro
$4.00
West
U.S.
$4.00
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1980s
$3.50
$3.00
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$2.00
$1.00
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot by Building
Height
$4.50
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
$1.50
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot by Unit Type
Eff
$5.50
High-Rise
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.50
$2.50
$3.00
$1.50
$2.50
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot Distribution
of Properties
<$1.641
$1.641 to $2.300
$2.301 to $2.960
$2.961 to $3.620
$3.621 to $4.280
$4.281 to $4.940
>$4.940
0
© 2015 MPF Research
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 122
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
CONCESSIONS
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Year Built
Concessions
Percent of Units (L)
Average Concession (R)
40%
20%
30%
15%
20%
10%
10%
5%
0%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1Q
15
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q
12
1Q
13
1980s
1Q
14
1 BR
2 BR
1Q
15
3 BR
30%
20%
10%
10%
5%
0%
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
2000+
1970s
20%
1990s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Average Concession by Building
Height
Average Concession by Year Built
1980s
10%
15%
8%
10%
6%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
4%
5%
0%
1Q
11
Eff
40%
15%
0%
1Q
10
1990s
Pre-1970
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Unit Type
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Building Height
20%
2000+
1970s
2%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0%
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Average Concession by Unit Type
Eff
20%
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
15%
10%
5%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 123
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN FRANCISCO
1Q 2015
REVENUE CHANGE
Revenue Change
Quarterly
20%
Annual
Annual Revenue Change
Comparison
Forecast
15%
5%
0%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-5%
Annual Revenue Change by Year
Built
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Revenue Change by
Building Height
1980s
14%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
2%
1Q 14
Annual Revenue Change by Unit
Type
Eff
30%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Revenue Change
Distribution of Properties
3 BR
<-4.9%
-4.9% to 1.0%
20%
1.1% to 7.0%
10%
7.1% to 13.0%
13.1% to 19.0%
0%
-10%
U.S.
10%
5%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
West
15%
10%
-5%
Metro
20%
19.1% to 25.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
>25.0%
0
20
40
60
BAY AREA | 124
SAN JOSE AREA
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
BAY AREA | 125
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Multifamily Building Permits
Supply
Annual
Quarterly
*two- and 11-month totals ending in February 2015
10k
Quarterly
6k
Annual
5k
8k
4k
6k
3k
4k
2k
2k
1k
0k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15*
0k
1Q
10
Annual Inventory Change
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Existing Units
156k
4%
154k
3%
152k
2%
150k
148k
1%
146k
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
144k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
Quarterly
Annual
Forecast
6k
4k
2k
0k
-2k
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
BAY AREA | 126
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
OCCUPANCY
99%
Occupancy
Occupancy Comparison
Metro
99%
98%
West
U.S.
97%
97%
95%
96%
93%
95%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Occupancy by Year Built
2000+
1970s
100%
1990s
Pre-1970
1Q
15
1Q
16
91%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Occupancy by Building Height
1980s
100%
99%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
98%
98%
97%
96%
96%
95%
94%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
92%
1Q 14
Occupancy by Unit Type
Eff
100%
1 BR
2 BR
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Occupancy Change
Distribution of Properties
3 BR
<-2.4%
99%
-2.4% to -1.5%
98%
-1.4% to -0.5%
97%
-0.4% to 0.5%
96%
0.6% to 1.5%
95%
1.6% to 2.5%
94%
2Q 14
>2.5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Occupancy Distribution of
Properties
<94.1%
94.1% to 95.0%
95.1% to 96.0%
96.1% to 97.0%
97.1% to 98.0%
98.1% to 99.0%
>99.0%
0
© 2015 MPF Research
50
100
150
BAY AREA | 127
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
RENT CHANGE
Rent Change
Quarterly
20%
Annual
Annual Rent Change Comparison
Forecast
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-10%
20%
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1980s
20%
15%
1Q
11
U.S.
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
15%
10%
5%
10%
0%
-5%
5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0%
1Q 14
Eff
30%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Rent Change Distribution
of Properties
Annual Rent Change by Unit Type
3 BR
<-14.9%
20%
-14.9% to -5.0%
10%
-4.9% to 5.0%
5.1% to 15.0%
0%
15.1% to 25.0%
-10%
-20%
West
Annual Rent Change by Building
Height
Annual Rent Change by Year Built
-10%
Metro
20%
25.1% to 35.0%
>35.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0
50
100
150
200
BAY AREA | 128
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
MONTHLY RENT
Monthly Rent Comparison
Metro
$2,500
West
Monthly Rent by Year Built
$3,000
$2,000
$2,500
$1,500
$2,000
$1,000
$1,500
$500
$1,000
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q
11
Eff
$3,000
$3,000
$2,500
$2,800
$2,000
$2,600
$1,500
$2,400
1Q
12
1Q
13
1980s
1Q
14
1Q
15
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$1,000
$2,200
$2,000
1Q
10
1990s
Pre-1970
Monthly Rent by Unit Type
Monthly Rent by Building Height
$3,200
2000+
1970s
U.S.
$500
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Monthly Rent Distribution of
Properties
<$1,491
$1,491 to $1,790
$1,791 to $2,090
$2,091 to $2,390
$2,391 to $2,690
$2,691 to $2,990
>$2,990
0
© 2015 MPF Research
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 129
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
Rent Per Square Foot by Year Built
Rent Per Square Foot Comparison
Metro
$3.00
West
U.S.
$3.00
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1980s
$2.50
$2.50
$2.00
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot by Building
Height
$3.00
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
$1.50
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot by Unit Type
Eff
$3.50
High-Rise
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$3.00
$2.80
$2.50
$2.60
$2.00
$2.40
$1.50
$2.20
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot Distribution
of Properties
<$1.856
$1.856 to $2.165
$2.166 to $2.475
$2.476 to $2.785
$2.786 to $3.095
$3.096 to $3.405
>$3.405
0
© 2015 MPF Research
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 130
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
CONCESSIONS
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Year Built
Concessions
Percent of Units (L)
Average Concession (R)
40%
12%
40%
30%
9%
20%
6%
20%
10%
3%
10%
0%
0%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q
15
High-Rise
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
Eff
40%
30%
3%
20%
2%
1Q
13
1Q
14
1 BR
2 BR
1Q
15
3 BR
10%
1%
0%
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
2000+
1970s
25%
1990s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Average Concession by Building
Height
Average Concession by Year Built
1980s
6%
20%
5%
15%
4%
10%
3%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
2%
5%
0%
1980s
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Unit Type
4%
0%
1990s
Pre-1970
30%
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Building Height
5%
2000+
1970s
1%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0%
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Average Concession by Unit Type
Eff
12%
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 131
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: SAN JOSE
1Q 2015
REVENUE CHANGE
Revenue Change
Quarterly
20%
Annual
Annual Revenue Change
Comparison
Forecast
U.S.
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Annual Revenue Change by Year
Built
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Revenue Change by
Building Height
1980s
20%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
15%
10%
5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0%
1Q 14
Annual Revenue Change by Unit
Type
Eff
30%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Revenue Change
Distribution of Properties
3 BR
<-14.9%
-14.9% to -5.0%
20%
-4.9% to 5.0%
10%
5.1% to 15.0%
0%
15.1% to 25.0%
-10%
-20%
West
15%
10%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Metro
20%
15%
25.1% to 35.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
>35.0%
0
50
100
150
200
BAY AREA | 132
OAKLAND
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS BAY AREA | 133
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Multifamily Building Permits
Supply
Annual
Quarterly
*two- and 11-month totals ending in February 2015
3.0k
Quarterly
3.0k
Annual
2.5k
2.5k
2.0k
2.0k
1.5k
1.5k
1.0k
1.0k
0.5k
0.5k
0.0k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15*
0.0k
1Q
10
Annual Inventory Change
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
Existing Units
200k
3%
198k
2%
196k
1%
194k
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
192k
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Demand
Quarterly
Annual
Forecast
6k
4k
2k
0k
-2k
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
BAY AREA | 134
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
OCCUPANCY
99%
Occupancy
Occupancy Comparison
98%
West
U.S.
97%
97%
96%
95%
95%
93%
94%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Occupancy by Year Built
2000+
1970s
100%
1990s
Pre-1970
1Q
15
1Q
16
91%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Occupancy by Building Height
1980s
100%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
99%
98%
98%
96%
97%
94%
96%
92%
Metro
99%
95%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
94%
1Q 14
Occupancy by Unit Type
Eff
100%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Occupancy Change
Distribution of Properties
3 BR
<-4.9%
-4.9% to -3.0%
98%
-2.9% to -1.0%
96%
-0.9% to 1.0%
1.1% to 3.0%
94%
92%
3.1% to 5.0%
>5.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0
50
100
150
200
Occupancy Distribution of
Properties
<89.1%
89.1% to 91.0%
91.1% to 93.0%
93.1% to 95.0%
95.1% to 97.0%
97.1% to 99.0%
>99.0%
0
© 2015 MPF Research
50
100
150
200
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SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
RENT CHANGE
Rent Change
Quarterly
15%
Annual
Annual Rent Change Comparison
Forecast
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-10%
20%
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
West
1Q
11
1Q
12
U.S.
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Annual Rent Change by Building
Height
Annual Rent Change by Year Built
1980s
16%
15%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
14%
10%
12%
5%
10%
0%
8%
-5%
-10%
Metro
15%
6%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
4%
1Q 14
Annual Rent Change by Unit Type
Eff
30%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Rent Change Distribution
of Properties
3 BR
<0.1%
0.1% to 4.0%
20%
4.1% to 8.0%
10%
8.1% to 12.0%
12.1% to 16.0%
0%
-10%
16.1% to 20.0%
>20.0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
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SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
MONTHLY RENT
Monthly Rent Comparison
Metro
$1,900
West
Monthly Rent by Year Built
$2,300
$2,100
$1,900
$1,700
$1,500
$1,300
$1,100
$900
$1,700
$1,500
$1,300
$1,100
$900
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
$2,800
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q
11
Eff
$2,200
$2,600
$2,000
$2,400
$1,800
$2,200
$1,600
1Q
12
1Q
13
1980s
1Q
14
1Q
15
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$1,400
$2,000
$1,200
$1,800
$1,000
$1,600
$1,400
1Q
10
1990s
Pre-1970
Monthly Rent by Unit Type
Monthly Rent by Building Height
Low-Rise
2000+
1970s
U.S.
$800
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Monthly Rent Distribution of
Properties
<$1,126
$1,126 to $1,375
$1,376 to $1,625
$1,626 to $1,875
$1,876 to $2,125
$2,126 to $2,375
>$2,375
0
© 2015 MPF Research
20
40
60
80
100
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SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
Rent Per Square Foot by Year Built
Rent Per Square Foot Comparison
Metro
$2.30
West
U.S.
$2.50
$2.10
1980s
$1.90
$1.50
$1.30
$1.70
$1.10
$1.50
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot by Building
Height
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
$3.10
$2.90
$2.70
$2.50
$2.30
$2.10
$1.90
$1.70
$1.50
$1.30
High-Rise
$2.90
$2.70
$2.50
$2.30
$2.10
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
$1.30
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot by Unit Type
$3.10
$1.90
Pre-1970
$2.10
$1.70
$3.30
1990s
1970s
$2.30
$1.90
$0.90
2000+
1Q 15
Eff
1Q
10
1 BR
1Q
11
1Q
12
2 BR
1Q
13
3 BR
1Q
14
1Q
15
Rent Per Square Foot Distribution
of Properties
<$1.321
$1.321 to $1.660
$1.661 to $2.000
$2.001 to $2.340
$2.341 to $2.680
$2.681 to $3.020
>$3.020
0
© 2015 MPF Research
50
100
150
BAY AREA | 138
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
CONCESSIONS
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Year Built
Concessions
Percent of Units (L)
Average Concession (R)
40%
12%
50%
30%
9%
40%
20%
6%
30%
10%
3%
0%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1990s
Pre-1970
1980s
20%
10%
0%
1Q
15
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Unit Type
Percent of Units Offering
Concessions by Building Height
15%
2000+
1970s
High-Rise
Eff
60%
1 BR
2 BR
1Q
15
3 BR
50%
40%
10%
30%
20%
5%
0%
10%
0%
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
15%
1990s
Pre-1970
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Average Concession by Building
Height
Average Concession by Year Built
2000+
1970s
1Q
10
1980s
8%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0%
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Average Concession by Unit Type
Eff
12%
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
BAY AREA | 139
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS: OAKLAND
1Q 2015
REVENUE CHANGE
Revenue Change
Quarterly
15%
Annual
Annual Revenue Change
Comparison
Forecast
Metro
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
1Q
16
-5%
Annual Revenue Change by Year
Built
15%
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q
10
1980s
20%
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
15%
5%
10%
0%
-5%
5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
0%
1Q 14
Annual Revenue Change by Unit
Type
Eff
30%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Annual Revenue Change
Distribution of Properties
3 BR
<-2.4%
-2.4% to 2.5%
20%
2.6% to 7.5%
10%
7.6% to 12.5%
12.6% to 17.5%
0%
-10%
1Q
11
Annual Revenue Change by
Building Height
10%
-10%
U.S.
10%
5%
-5%
West
17.6% to 22.5%
1Q
10
1Q
11
© 2015 MPF Research
1Q
12
1Q
13
1Q
14
1Q
15
>22.5%
0
20
40
60
80
100
BAY AREA | 140
METHODOLOGY
BAY AREA | 141
METHODOLOGY
1Q 2015
METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW
MPF Research assesses recent general conditions in the apartment market and forecast market fundamentals for the coming year. Analysis focuses on investment opportunities and obstacles at the market and submarket level. Data in this report represent the best information available at publication time. Statistics will be similar to, but not necessarily identical to, information published in previous reports, as MPF Research continually updates its database and sometimes revises historical performances if information deemed more accurate becomes available. Identification of near‐term opportunities is not a blanket endorsement of activity within any market or submarket. Even in submarkets that appear promising overall, investment prospects are not uniformly favorable. Conversely, pockets of opportunity may exist in submarkets that are not positioned favorably overall. Investment decisions should be based on market research tailored to the unique potential of each property.
Universe/Property Characteristics: Attached dwellings with five or more units leased through a central management company or agent. The universe includes properties originally developed for lease (traditional apartment communities) and multifamily units previously marketed as condominiums/townhomes which are now leased through a central management company or agent. Privately‐owned, off‐campus student housing properties are included in the existing unit count and sample, since the presence of these properties impacts the performances of traditional communities.
Affordable housing properties are included in the existing unit count and sample, even if there are restrictions on resident incomes, as long as residents are paying their own rent.
Existing Unit Stock: Existing unit stock is estimated starting with 2000 Census counts of rental communities featuring five or more units and then adding subsequent completions and conversions, and then subtracting units taken out of the rental pool for conversion or demolition. Thus, net inventory change does not solely reflect new construction.
Submarkets: The submarkets established by MPF Research generally reflect areas featuring similar properties that compete within the same pool of resident prospects. Submarket boundaries are established considering logical obstacles like major roads or bodies of water, as well as geopolitical boundaries – such as those of cities, counties and school districts. MPF Research also considers socioeconomics and various apartment market data (e.g. property age and average rental rates). All submarkets follow ZIP code boundaries and meet certain thresholds for historical sample size.
Metro Calculations: Metro calculations are based upon the actual sample received for the metro. Regional Calculations: Regional statistics are weighted by the existing unit estimates of each MPF Research top 100 metro in the particular region. MPF Research follows the U.S. Census Bureau’s definitions for regions (South, West, Midwest, Northeast). However, New York is excluded from Northeast and U.S. calculations. New York product is not representative of the country’s typical apartment selection, and weighted results for the roughly 2.1 million units that exist there would significantly shift both regional and national findings.
U.S. Calculations: National statistics are weighted by the existing unit estimates of each Region (South, West, Midwest, Northeast), which are comprised of the MPF Research top 100 metros, excluding New York. (See note above on Regional Calculations for explanation.)
Sample/Survey Process: Data collected in the MPF Research quarterly survey is collected through various sources. Where available, MPF Research can incorporate data from RealPage software products. MPF Research also collects data through direct relationships with
management companies, through telephone surveys and through e‐mail surveys that are completed by apartment community owners or managers. Additionally, data is collected for each property’s individual floorplans, not by general floor plan category, which allows for more granular analysis.
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Employment Change: The change in the number of jobs in a metropolitan area in the current quarter compared to a year earlier (Annual Employment Change), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. MPF Research uses non‐seasonally adjusted data.
Employment Change Forecast: Employment forecasts presented in MPF Research analysis are calculated by MPF Research after taking into account recent and expected employment trends.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate represents the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for work, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. MPF Research uses non‐seasonally adjusted data.
© 2015 MPF Research
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METHODOLOGY
1Q 2015
SUPPLY
Multifamily Permits: The number of multifamily permits in properties with five or more units issued in a metropolitan statistical area, region or nationally, both for‐rent and for‐sale product. Multifamily permit data reported by MPF Research are based on our calculations of monthly U.S. Census Bureau data.
Multifamily Starts: The number of multifamily units in properties with five or more units started in a region or nationally, both rental and owner‐occupied. Starts data reported by MPF Research is based on U.S. Census Bureau data.
Under Construction: MPF Research considers properties to be under construction once ground has broken. Supply/Completions: All units in a property are counted as new supply during the quarter when the last apartments in the project are completed. Estimated Supply: Estimates are used only in markets where MPF Research does not offer project‐by‐project completion/construction listings. Supply estimates are proprietary calculations based on building permit levels.
Removals: When identified, properties are removed from stock when they are converted from rental to condominiums or when they are demolished.
Inventory Change Rate: Inventory change rate is calculated as net supply (supply less removals) as a percent of total existing units.
Existing Units: MPF Research estimates existing units (stock) starting with rental properties with five or more units, according to the 2000 Census. Subsequent completions are added to that base stock, and units are subtracted from the stock for condominium conversions or demolitions. Thus, inventory change does not solely reflect new supply/completions.
DEMAND
Demand/Absorption: MPF Research defines demand or absorption (the words are used interchangeably) as the change in physically occupied units (existing units multiplied by the occupancy rate) from one period to another. Net move‐outs (a synonym for negative demand) can occur simply because the size of the existing inventory shrinks due to condominium conversions or due to demolitions.
Absorption of New Completions: Units are not counted as absorbed until the entire property is completed.
Absorption Forecasts: A macro‐to‐micro approach is used in forecasting the number of units to be absorbed in a submarket. That is, the metro area absorption forecast is distributed among submarkets on the basis of the anticipated capture rate of each submarket which is determined by a multi‐variable sharing model. The sharing model incorporates recent trends as well upcoming supply/completions.
OCCUPANCY
Occupancy: Occupancy is calculated as the percentage of existing stock physically occupied at a point in time based on sampled units of completed properties in a given metropolitan area in the current period. Preleased units are not part of the occupancy calculation, but newly completed properties in lease‐up are included. The term “stabilized occupancy” refers to a rate that excludes new completions in lease‐up.
Occupancy Change: Occupancy change is calculated as the percentage point difference in occupancy rate from one period to another.
RENT
Rental Rates: Unless otherwise noted, all rents reported are effective rental rates (asking rents net of concessions). Rental rates reflect a property’s rent structure at the point of time of the survey, than the property’s actual revenues (which would be shaped by rents in place when ongoing leases were signed). Rents are calculated for each property’s individual floor plans (e.g., one‐bedroom, 750 square feet), not by general floor plan category (e.g., one‐bedroom, 600 to 875 square feet). High and low rents for each floor plan are averaged. No adjustments are made for utilities or for specific amenities.
Monthly Rent: The average rental rate charged for an apartment unit on a monthly basis, less concessions. MPF Research always reports monthly rent as the effective rate (asking rent less concessions).
© 2015 MPF Research
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METHODOLOGY
1Q 2015
Rent Per Square Foot: Average monthly rent divided by the average square footage of the apartment unit, less concessions.
Rent Change: All rent change figures reported by MPF Research are based on same‐store samples as opposed to total samples, unless otherwise noted. Same‐store rent change calculations compare rents for the same specific group of properties between two points in time. Examination of same‐store rent change eliminates the misrepresentation of market conditions that can result from sampling differences in two reporting periods.
Concessions: Concessions include one‐time, months free and prorated discounts. Concessions are collected at the individual floor plan level where applicable.
Units Offering Concessions: The percent of units offering concessions.
REVENUE
Revenue Change: All revenue change calculations are derived by adding the occupancy change (total sample) plus the same‐store rent change figures for the time period being reported (quarter or annual).
PRODUCT NICHES
Year Built: 2000+: Properties completed since 2000; 1990s: Properties completed in the 1990s; 1980s: Properties completed in the 1980s; 1970s: Properties completed in the 1970s; Pre‐1970: Properties completed prior to 1970.
Building Height: Low‐Rise: Properties with one‐to‐three stories; Mid‐Rise: Properties with four‐to‐six stories; High‐Rise: Properties with seven or more stories.
Unit Type: Eff: Units of an efficiency or studio design; 1 BR: Units with one bedroom; 2 BR: Units with two bedrooms; 3 BR: Units with three or more bedrooms. In units that include a den, the den is counted as a bedroom.
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING
These charts, which are included in the submarket overview, illustrate a submarket’s performance relative to the metro and all other submarkets. Performances are scaled with the lowest figures set at far left and the highest figures set at far right. The submarket in question is highlighted as maroon, with all other submarkets shown in white. The metro overall is shown in purple. From this, one can tell if a particular submarket is above, below or within the range of other submarkets and the metro overall for a given performance measure. Comparative positioning is available for the following performance measures: monthly rent, annual rent change, occupancy, annual occupancy change, annual supply and annual demand.
© 2015 MPF Research
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METHODOLOGY
1Q 2015
SAMPLED UNITS: SAN FRANCISCO
Sub#
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1
5,990
1,384
2,916
1,476
214
240
1,390
1,292
229
2,839
195
1,254
4,541
2
6,754
903
3,764
2,039
48
4,362
386
2,006
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1,780
4,974
3
5,062
122
1,804
2,460
676
311
n.a.
85
607
4,059
1,136
396
3,530
4
7,440
192
4,673
2,497
78
1,236
n.a.
983
1,858
3,363
5,952
1,488
n.a.
5
8,640
216
4,315
3,661
448
1,481
337
1,352
3,309
2,161
6,561
1,616
463
6
3,729
201
1,736
1,468
324
1,027
355
510
855
982
2,203
1,191
335
7
5,197
130
2,005
2,604
458
527
931
961
1,519
1,259
4,603
594
n.a.
METRO
42,812
3,148
21,213
16,205
2,246
9,184
3,399
7,189
8,377
14,663
20,650
8,319
13,843
High-Rise
Submarket Key
1.
2.
3.
4.
Downtown San Francisco
SoMa
West San Francisco
North San Mateo County
5.
6.
7.
Central San Mateo County
South San Mateo County
Marin County
SAMPLED UNITS: SAN JOSE AREA
Sub#
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1
7,792
441
3,740
3,232
379
1,193
127
1,248
2,141
3,083
6,215
1,305
272
2
8,804
110
4,586
3,914
194
811
2,481
2,056
2,365
1,091
7,357
1,447
n.a.
3
6,158
210
2,559
3,074
315
466
1,060
718
3,218
696
5,478
680
n.a.
4
8,438
22
4,227
3,908
281
2,216
886
2,085
2,699
552
7,182
826
430
5
8,331
268
4,180
3,447
436
1,057
348
1,085
4,209
1,632
7,968
363
n.a.
6
9,904
45
3,613
5,029
1,217
3,020
1,682
2,703
2,104
395
9,306
598
n.a.
7
6,146
370
2,680
2,585
485
3,852
735
291
849
419
3,525
2,064
557
8
6,843
374
2,729
2,941
799
1,409
224
1,155
2,871
1,184
6,343
500
n.a.
9
7,788
277
3,460
3,674
377
3,393
2,685
1,436
220
54
3,922
3,866
n.a.
METRO
70,204
2,117
31,774
31,804
4,483
17,417
10,228
12,777
20,676
9,106
57,296
11,649
1,259
Submarket Key
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos
North Sunnyvale
South Sunnyvale/Cupertino
Santa Clara
West San Jose/Campbell
6.
7.
8.
9.
South San Jose
Central San Jose
East San Jose
North San Jose/Milpitas
SAMPLED UNITS: OAKLAND
Sub#
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1
13,235
110
5,986
6,569
570
936
2,215
4,149
5,156
779
12,452
783
n.a.
2
10,796
126
5,185
4,952
533
1,053
299
3,427
3,191
2,826
9,774
1,022
n.a.
3
8,869
580
3,772
3,809
698
3,940
559
n.a.
1,646
2,724
3,873
3,670
1,326
4
5,092
241
2,207
2,405
239
1,102
917
1,382
1,535
156
3,818
1,274
n.a.
5
7,394
77
3,110
3,900
307
538
180
2,282
3,057
1,337
6,688
610
96
6
7,143
n.a.
2,819
3,738
586
1,997
457
3,342
1,142
205
6,721
422
n.a.
7
5,575
435
2,738
2,278
124
654
414
1,378
1,708
1,421
4,385
1,190
n.a.
8
7,993
110
3,192
4,257
434
4,018
1,238
2,581
156
n.a.
6,560
1,433
n.a.
9
5,927
n.a.
2,429
3,236
262
69
1,493
3,197
894
274
5,927
n.a.
n.a.
METRO
72,024
1,679
31,438
35,144
3,753
14,307
7,772
21,738
18,485
9,722
60,198
10,404
1,422
Submarket Key
© 2015 MPF Research
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Fremont
Hayward/San Leandro/Union City
Oakland/Berkeley
Northwest Contra Costa County
Concord/Martinez
6.
7.
8.
9.
Northeast Contra Costa County
Walnut Creek/Lafayette
San Ramon/Dublin
Livermore/Pleasanton
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COMBINED AREA SUBMARKET MAP
© 2015 MPF Research
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SAN FRANCISCO SUBMARKET MAP
© 2015 MPF Research
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SAN JOSE AREA SUBMARKET MAP
© 2015 MPF Research
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OAKLAND SUBMARKET MAP
© 2015 MPF Research
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SAN FRANCISCO SUBMARKET ZIP CODES
1
Downtown San Francisco: 94102, 94104, 94108, 94109, 94111, 94115, 94123, 94130, 94133
2
SoMa: 94103, 94105, 94107, 94110, 94124, 94134, 94158
3
West San Francisco: 94112, 94114, 94116, 94117, 94118, 94121, 94122, 94127, 94129, 94131, 94132
4
North San Mateo County: 94005, 94014, 94015, 94030, 94044, 94066, 94080, 94128
5
Central San Mateo County: 94010, 94401, 94402, 94403, 94404
6
South San Mateo County: 94002, 94019, 94020, 94021, 94025, 94027, 94028, 94037, 94038, 94060, 94061, 94062, 94063, 94065, 94070, 94074
7
Marin County: 94901, 94903, 94904, 94920, 94924, 94925, 94929, 94930, 94933, 94937, 94938, 94939, 94940, 94941, 94945, 94946, 94947, 94949, 94950, 94956, 94960, 94963, 94964, 94965, 94970, 94971, 94973
SAN JOSE AREA SUBMARKET ZIP CODES
1
Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos: 94022, 94024, 94035, 94040, 94041, 94043, 94301, 94303, 94304, 94305, 94306
2
North Sunnyvale: 94085, 94086, 94089
3
South Sunnyvale/Cupertino: 94087, 95014, 95070
4
Santa Clara: 95050, 95051, 95053, 95054
5
West San Jose/Campbell: 95008, 95117, 95128, 95129, 95130
6
South San Jose: 95013, 95020, 95023, 95030, 95032, 95037, 95043, 95045, 95046, 95118, 95119, 95120, 95123, 95124, 95136, 95139, 95141
7
Central San Jose: 95110, 95112, 95113, 95125, 95126, 95192
8
East San Jose: 95111, 95116, 95121, 95122, 95127, 95133, 95135, 95138, 95140, 95148
9
North San Jose/Milpitas: 95002, 95035, 95131, 95132, 95134
OAKLAND SUBMARKET ZIP CODES
1
Fremont: 94536, 94538, 94539, 94555, 94560
2
Hayward/San Leandro/Union City: 94541, 94542, 94544, 94545, 94546, 94552, 94577, 94578, 94579, 94580, 94587
3
Oakland/Berkeley: 94501, 94502, 94601, 94602, 94603, 94605, 94606, 94607, 94608, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94612, 94613, 94618, 94619, 94621, 94702, 94703, 94704, 94705, 94706, 94707, 94708, 94709, 94710, 94720
4
Northwest Contra Costa County: 94525, 94530, 94547, 94564, 94572, 94801, 94803, 94804, 94805, 94806
5
Concord/Martinez: 94518, 94519, 94520, 94521, 94523, 94553, 94569
6
Northeast Contra Costa County: 94505, 94509, 94511, 94513, 94514, 94517, 94531, 94548, 94561, 94565
7
Walnut Creek/Lafayette: 94507, 94549, 94556, 94563, 94595, 94596, 94597, 94598
8
San Ramon/Dublin: 94506, 94526, 94528, 94568, 94582, 94583
9
Livermore/Pleasanton: 94550, 94551, 94566, 94586, 94588
© 2015 MPF Research
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ABOUT MPF RESEARCH
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MPF Research’s product suite helps you make the decisions that maximize the value of your apartment investments. Tools guide you through smart development or acquisition choices, effective operations and appropriate disposition strategies. These solutions offer sophisticated and timely support to ensure that valuable opportunities don’t slip through the cracks.
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