LinkingTransportation,Planning,andEconomicGrowth:LessonsforMetropolitanLasVegas RobertPuentesandAdieTomer1 November2015 I. Overview IntheaftermathoftheGreatRecession,adramaticchangeisoccurringinhowmetropolitanareasplan fortheirfuture.Intheseplaces,adedicatedsetofcivic,corporate,political,andphilanthropicleaders areexplicitlymakingtheconnectionbetweentransportationplanningandinvestmentswitheconomic growth.Thisisanewformoftransportationplanningandplacemakingthatdoesnotleavegrowthto chance,butstartswithanoverarchingeconomicvisionbasedonatrueassessmentoftheirstrengths, challenges,andopportunities.Itrepresentsadeliberateandintentionalsetoftacticsandstrategies. MetropolitanLasVegascanbepartofthisnewcohortofmetropolitaninnovators,butitwillrequirea well-designedcombinationoftransportationandregionalplanningthatrecognizesstate-of-the-art practicesfromacrosstheworld.Asaregionaleconomyhighlysusceptibletonationalbusinesscycles,it hasagenerationalopportunitytobuildoffitsexistingassetsanddynamictourismindustrybyacting withpurposeandclarity. Thepurposeofthiswhitepaperistoillustratehowleaderscanputforthastrategicandvisionary—yet groundedandpragmatic—approachtoplanningregionaltransportationtosupportbotheconomic developmentandmodernurbanplanning. II. LinkingTransportation,Planning,andEconomicGrowth Transportationiswidelyrecognizedasakeycomponentinurbaneconomicgrowth.Muchofthisis intuitive.Over27percentofallpersonaltripsaresocialorrecreationalinnature.Everythingelseisin somewaysrelatedtoeconomicproductivity,suchascommutingandworkrelatedtrips(17percentof alltrips),shoppingandrunningerrands(45percent),andtripstoschool(10percent).2 Byenablingworkerstoreachemployment,movingcitizenstoandfromareasofserviceandopportunity, facilitatingglobaltrade,andshippingproductsbetweenproducersandconsumers,economicgrowth andtransportationarecloselylinked(Porter,2000).Improvingphysicalaccesstoeconomicopportunity enhancestheefficiencyoflabormarkets,bringspublicserviceswithinreachofallcitizens,andgenerally canimprovequalityoflife(Litman,2011). Itisimportanttonotethatwhilethereisagreementabouttheconnectionbetweentransportationand theeconomy,therelationshipiscomplex.Doesaregionbegintoinvestintransportationtoboostits economy,ordoesaregionfirsthavetoestablishanindustrialbasebeforeitinvestsinitstransportation infrastructure?Transportationiscertainlyareflectionofeconomicactivity,inasmuchasproductsmust 1 RobertPuentesisaseniorfellowwiththeBrookingsInstitution’sMetropolitanPolicyProgramwherehealso directstheprogram’sMetropolitanInfrastructureInitiative.AdieTomerisafellowattheprogram. 2 Schoolandchurchtripsarecombined.SeeFederalHighwayAdministration,“SummaryofTravelTrends:National HouseholdTravelSurvey,”2009. 1 bemovedtomarketsbutthecausalityoftheserelationshipsisunclear:transportationinfluences economicconditions,andeconomicconditionsinfluencetransportation. AreviewbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesofrecentmodelsforassessingtherelationshipbetween transportationandtheeconomyfoundthatthereisasuggestionofarelationship.(NRC,2002).Butthe relationshipistenuousgiventhequestionofcausality.Atcertaintimes,investmentsinthe transportationsystem,suchastherapidcreationofpassengerrailnetworksinEuropeinthelate19th centuryandthecompletionoftheU.S.interstatehighwaynetworkinthe1950s,areassociatedwith majorincreasesinproductivity.However,thisonlyoccurswhentheimprovementsaregenuinely transformative.Instead,mosttransportationimprovementswillhaveanincremental(butnot insignificant)impactonproductivityandgrowth.Thereforethedetailedlinkagesbetween transportationandothersectorsshouldbethefocusofattentionforpolicymakersinadvanced economies,astheywillguidepolicytowardmakingthemosteffectiveimprovements. Thebestinvestigationintotransportationasameanstoimproveeconomicperformancecomesfroma 2007Britishstudythatidentifiedsevenmicro-economicdriversthatmayserveasgatewaysfor transportation’simpactoneconomicproductivity.(UKDepartmentforTransport,2008).Awell performingtransportationnetworkwould: 1. Increasebusinessefficiency,throughtimesavingsandimprovedreliabilityforbusinesstravelers, freightandlogisticsoperations. 2. Increasebusinessinvestmentandinnovationbysupportingeconomiesofscaleornewwaysof working. 3. Supportclustersandagglomerationsofeconomicactivity.Transportationimprovementscanexpand labormarketareas,improvejobmatching,andfacilitatebusiness-to-businessinteractions. 4. Improvetheefficientfunctioningoflabormarkets,increaselabormarketflexibility,andthe accessibilityofjobs. 5. Increasecompetitionbyopeningupaccesstonewmarkets. 6. Increasedomesticandinternationaltradebyreducingthecostsoftradingforservicesandfreight. 7. Attractgloballymobileactivitytoaregionbyprovidinganattractivebusinessenvironmentandgood qualityoflife. Thefocusonthesevenmicro–driverssuggeststhatonlywell-targetedtransportationinvestments wouldhavetheexpectedresults.Inotherwords,therightlevelofinvestmentislessimportantthan wheretransportationprojectsarefundedandhowtheyarechosen.Inthisway,investmentsin congestedorgrowingareas,choseninatransparent,prioritizedmanner,basedonafullappraisalof theirbenefitsandcosts,shouldbethemainstayofanymetropolitantransportationpolicy. Beyondthesedrivers,wedoknowthattransportationalsosupportsAmericanworkers,providing millionsofjobseachyeartobuildandmaintainthestructuresandfacilitiesthatpoweroureconomy. Brookings’analysisofdatafromtheBureauofLaborStatisticsrevealsthatnearly7percentofall workersinmetropolitanLasVegasaredirectlyemployedinfieldsrelatedtotransportationoffering manyemploymentopportunitiesthathavelowbarrierstoentryandareprojectedtogrowoverthenext decade.Thisincludeseverythingfromhighwaymaintenanceworkers,tobusdrivers,totransportation engineers.(KaneandPuentes,2014.) Freightandgoodsmovementisperhapstheclearestexampleofhowtransportationimpactseconomic growth.Amajorreviewof“acenturyofdata”forfoundpositiverelationshipsbetweenpublic 2 infrastructureinvestmentsandeconomicproductivity—especiallyinthefreightandindustrialsector. Thebenefitsandsavingsfortruckingalonejustifyone-thirdtoone-halfofthefederalhighway investmentsbetween1950and1973.(HLB1999).Swift,highlyreliable,andrelativelyinexpensive truckingfacilitatedtheadoptionofjust-in-timelogisticspracticesduringthe1990sbyfirmsacrossthe economy,inboththemanufacturingandservicesectors.Thisisclearlyevidentinthecontinentalsupply chainsthatconnectAmericanfirmstoCanadaandMexico,theUnitedStates’largesttradingpartners. Thosesupplychainscouldnotoperatewithoutreliabletruckandrailconnectionsbetweenandwithin thecountries(ParillaandBerube,2013). Inspiteofthiselaborateandthoroughinlanddistributionsystem,thedistancetoaninternational gateway—anairport,alandborder,oraseaport—isstillenormouslyimportantforpotentialexporters (Griesandothers,2009).Allthingsbeingequal,exportingfirmsthatareclosertoagatewayhavean advantageoverthosethataremoredistant.Forfirmsthatexporthigh-valueproductsbyair,proximity toamajorinternationalpassengergateway(e.g.,LosAngeles,Miami,Chicago,NewYork)orcargohub (e.g.,MemphisorLouisville)willprovideadistinctadvantageoveralocationfromwhichalengthytruck triporadditionalairbornesegmentisnecessarytoreachamajorairport.Forexportersbysea,thereis greatadvantageinbeingcloseenoughtoamarineterminal(oran“inlandport”offeringnonstop intermodalrailservicetoamajorseaport)thatadrayagetruckcan,withinasingledayofservice,make aroundtripbetweentheirloadingdockandtheport.IfmanufacturingincreasesasashareofU.S. exports,metrosthathostoneormoresuchgatewayswillhaveadistinctadvantageoverthosethatdo not.Inturn,theportionsofmetrosthathavethegreatestaccesstosuchgatewayswillreceivethelion’s shareofgrowthinthesectorsthatutilizethemmost(Tomerandothers,2013). Butwhiletheconnectionbetweentransportationandeconomicgrowthiswellunderstood,successful citiesandmetropolitanareasintheU.S.andaroundtheworldalsoneedtorecognizethefundamental relationshipbetweentransportationandphysicalgrowth. Today,transportationplanningandcapitalprogramminghaveasmuchtodowithhowplacesgrowand developasanyothersuiteofpublicpolicies.Yetthetransportationnetworkincitiesandregionsisnot anephemeralconceptandwithfewexceptionsAmericancitiesfailtoconsidergrowthanddevelopment dynamicsintransportationontheproperscale:themetropolitanlevel.Landuseandmost transportationplanningremainshyperlocalizedwithspotimprovementsmadetoamelioratespecific problems.Foritspart,metropolitantransportationplansaremostlyjustaggregationsoflocalprojects. Thisisdespitethefactthattherelationshipbetweenthebuiltenvironmentandtransportationhasbeen oneofthemostactiveareasofinquiryforurbanplanningscholarssincethemid-1990s(Muroand Puentes,2004;EwingandCervero,2010).Lately,attentionhasreturnedtothepotentialusefulnessof urbanplanninganddesigninreducinggreenhousegasemissionsbyreducingthenecessityof automobileusage.ThisisamajorfocusoftheupcomingParisClimateChangeConference,forexample. Thisconnectionbetweentransportationandphysicalformisimportantbecauselanduseanddensityin andofitselfisnoguaranteeofspatialefficiency(GordonandRichardson,1997).LosAngelesisbysome measuresthenation’smostdenselypopulatedmetro,duetothelackofsignificantdifferencein populationdensitybetweenthecentralcityanditssuburbs,aswellasadearthofopenspacewithin urbanizedportionsofthemetropolitanarea.Itprovidesanexcellentandcautionaryexampleofa denselydevelopedyetautomobile-dependentregion,withprevailingland-usepatterns(longblocks, widearterialroads,strictfunctionalseparationofprimarylanduses)thatdiscouragewalkingand consequentlyinhibitthedevelopmentoftransitridershipoutsidethelowestsocioeconomicstrata 3 (Eidlin,2005).Thatregionisnowembarkingonsomeofthemostadvanced,intentionalplanningtolink uptransportationandlanduseinordertoreconcilethesepastgenerationalmistakes.(CityofLos Angeles,2015). Carefulurbanplanning,withaparticulareyetofactorsthatimpactresidents’willingnessandabilityto usealternativestotheautomobileformanytrips—oratleastminimizethelengthofcartrips—canbea powerfultoolforreducingtransportation’scontributionstoregionalproblems(e.g.,carbonemissions, spatialmismatch,trafficcongestion.)Eveninsuburbswherethevastmajorityofcommutingoccursby automobile,individualswholivenearpedestrian-orientedshoppingdistrictsaremorelikelytowalkto shoppingthanthosewholiveinautomobile-orientedareas(Boarnetetal.,2011).Whilethecollocation ofhousingandshoppingcanreducevehicletravelsignificantly,thecollocationofhousingand employmentyieldsevengreaterreductionsindriving(CerveroandDuncan,2006). Onekeystrategyistodevelopplansforcreatingwalkableurbanplaces—mixingoffices,retailspace,and residencesatapedestrianscale—athighlyaccessiblelocations(Leinberger,2010).Thedowntownsof olderstreetcarandcommuterrailsuburbslikeNaperville,Illinois,andBethesda,Maryland,havebeen theprimarysitesofsuchdevelopment.However,thesuccessofmany“towncenter”projects,which havetransformednumerousmoribundindoorshoppingmallsintopedestrian-orientedoutdoor shoppingcenterswithofficesandapartmentsnextdoor—effectivelyprovidingdowntownstosuburbs oftendevoidofthem—demonstratesthepotentialfordevelopingwalkableplacesinlocationswithno previoushistoryofpedestrianorientation. Itisnotacoincidencethatmanyprominentindustryclustersexisteitheratthepedestrianscaleinhighly accessiblecentralbusinessdistricts(e.g.,fashioninManhattan,financialengineeringintheChicago Loop),orattheautomobilescalealongmajorregionalhighwaycorridorsandattheirintersections(e.g., informationmanagementalongtheDullesTollRoadinthewesternWashingtonsuburbs,biotechnology alongI-5northofdowntownSanDiegoandI-270inthenorthernWashingtonsuburbs).Giventhe failureofsomany“blackbox”attemptstoformclustersthroughtheprovisionofphysicalspaceinhighly accessiblelocations,though,cheapofficespacenearafreewayinterchangeclearlydoesnotprovidea sufficientpreconditionforasustainableclustertoform(MuroandKatz2010). However,simplydesignatingaplacetobeapedestrianorientedretailnodedoesnotmeanitcanbe sustainedbylow-densityresidentialareassurroundingthem.Instead,mostvisitorsarrivebyautomobile, oftenleadingtoconflictbetweenbusinessdistrictsandtheirsurroundingresidentialareasoverparking andthroughtraffic.Whilemanyplaceshavesomescopefordensification(e.g.,byreplacingsingle-story retailstructureswithmultistorymixed-usebuildings),oftensuburbanretailclustershavestreetplans andsurroundinglandusepatternsthatmakeaccommodatingdenserdevelopmentdifficult.Anyplanto redistributecommercialactivitytothesenodeswillneedtheaccompanimentofanewmobilityand accessibilitystrategyencompassingpedestrianandbicyclefacilitiesandlocalcirculatortransit— especiallycriticalgiventhetendencyofwalkablecenterstoincreasepropertyvaluesnearby,andthus reduceaffordabilityforlow-incomepopulations.3 3 Itisalsonecessarytodevelopstrategiestoovercomethehostilityofmanyresidentstoresidentialstructures otherthansingle-familyhousesandgarden-styleapartmentandtownhousecomplexes(Levine2006).Thislineof inquiryiswelltraveled,withconclusionstoolengthytosummarizehere. 4 Howandwheredevelopmentoccurs—thosecrucialpreoccupationsofsmart,intentionalplanning— matters.Reducingurbansprawl,promotingurbanfocus,andencouragingmorecompactdevelopment (alongwithprovidinggoodtransportationlinks)maywellenhanceoutcomes.Thisoccursthroughthe deliberateandintegrateduseoftheplanning,regulatory,andfiscalauthorityofstateandlocal governmentstoinfluencethepatternofgrowthanddevelopmentinordertomeetprojectedneeds. Includedinthisdefinitionaresuchtoolsascomprehensiveplanning,zoning,subdivisionregulations, propertytaxesanddevelopmentfees,andotherpolicyinstrumentscoupledwithinfrastructureand transportationinvestmentsthatsignificantlyinfluencethedevelopmentoflandandthepotential regionaleconomicoutcomes. Whilemuchoftheempiricalworkisstillemerging,urbaneconomistshavelongtheorizedthaturban forminfluenceseconomicoutcomes.Andnow,researchershaveactuallybeguntodemonstratethat suchkeygoalsascompactness,density,well-integratedland-useandtransportation,growth managementsystems,andrejuvenatedurbancentersmayeachbeassociatedwithenhancedeconomic growth. FastTrackingTransportationinDenver In2004,residentsinmetropolitanDenvervotedforamulti-billioncomprehensiveplan,FasTracks,to buildmorethan122milesofnewlightrail,commuterrail,andbusrapidtransitlanesserving60new transitstations.ItincludestheredevelopmentofUnionStationasamulti-modalhubindowntown Denver.Othercommunitiesaroundthenewtransitstationschangedzoninglawstoallowtighter,taller developmentneartherailstops,providingthedensitythatenablesmoreresidentstoreaptherewards ofthisgreatpublicinvestment. Inmakingthelinkbetweendeliberateurbanplanningandinfrastructuredevelopment,theDenverPost notedthatFasTracks“wouldbenomorethanajumbleofrailandconcretewithoutcarefulzoningand transportationplanningbythecitiesandcountiesservedbytheproject.”Thisiscriticallyimportant becausetheregionisexpectedgrow50percentby2035.Duringpeakconstruction,theplanis estimatedtocreateover7,000jobs.Oncecompleted,FasTrackswilladd$150millionayearinwages andsalariestotheDenvermetroeconomy.(KatzandBradley,2013). Theprojectisexpectedtocost$6.8billion,andisfundedfromavarietyofsourcesincludingsalestax bonds,federalTransportationInfrastructureFinanceandInnovationAct(TIFIA)programloans,federal NewStarts,localcontributionsandpublic-privatepartnerships.In2004,residentsoftheDenverregion approvedafour-tenths-centsalestaxincrease,usedascollateralagainstbondstofinancetheplan.To design,build,finance,operateandmaintainthecombinedGoldLineandEastLine(knownastheEagle Project)RTDcontractedwithaconcessionaireinapublic-privatepartnership.Localcommunities impactedbytheprogramwillcontribute2percentofthetotalprojectscosts,about$95million. Recentincreasesinconstructioncostsandsignificantdecreaseinsalestaxesrevenueduetothe recessionhavedelayedtheprogressoftheproject,leavinga$2billiongaptofinishthebuildoutinthe nextdecade.Theprojecthassupportfromavarietyofstakeholdersintheregion,andproject developersareworkingwiththeprivatesectortodesign,build,andoperateportionsofFasTracks,as wellbuildtransit-orienteddevelopment(TOD)communitiesaroundstationstoserveasexamplesof public-privatecollaboration. 5 III. DesigningaTransportationSystemAroundEconomicOutcomes TheGreatRecessionwasawake-upcalltometropolitanAmerica.Debt-fueledconsumptiondefinedthe economicapproachofthepriordecades,withmetropolitanareascompetingtostealbusinessesfrom oneanotherandmakingbigbetsonspeculativerealestate(KatzandBradley,2013).Thisleftregions particularlyvulnerabletodropsinaggregateconsumptionortightercapitalmarkets. ThiswasespeciallythecaseinLasVegas,whichwasoneofthemetroareasmostaffectedbythe downturn.Bynearlyeverykeyeconomicindicator,LasVegasstruggled—andbysomemeasures continuestodoso.OverallmetropolitanGDPpeakedinmid-2007andcontinuedtofalluntilmid-2012— andGDPisstilllowerthanitwasduringthepre-recessionpeak.Similarly,totalemploymentisstilllower thanthe2007peakandunemploymentisstillover1percentagepointhigherthanthenationalaverage. Evenhousepricesarejustoverhalfoftheiraveragevaluein2007(FriedhoffandKulkarni,2015). Fortunately,LasVegasanditspeershaverecognizedtheneedforaneweconomicgrowthmodel,one thatfocusesonthecoreproductivitydriversthatmaderegionaleconomiessuccessfulforcenturies: tradableindustries,socialequity,andenvironmentalresiliency.Andacrosseachofthosethreedrivers, thephysicallandscapeandtransportationplayacriticalrole. Tradehasalwaysbeentheeconomicfoundationofcities(Jacobs,1992).Itcreatesamarketplacefora metroarea’sgoods,bringingnewvalueintothecommunitythroughthefinancialassetspaidforlocallyproducedexportsandvaluecreationthoughlow-costand/orhigh-valueimportsthatcannotbelocally produced(Tomerandothers,2013).InthecaseofLasVegas,itwouldbeimpossibletoimaginethe desertoasisevergrowingtonearly2millionpeopleifitcouldn’tsellitsworld-leadingbrandof entertainmentservicesorahospitableclimatefornewresidents.Ineachmetroarea,theirownunique collectionoftradableindustriespowertheregionaleconomybypayinghigherwages,attractingnew investmentcapital,andrecyclingmoneythroughtheirownprocurementoflocalserviceslikefood, education,andhealthcare(ParillaandBerube,2012). Buttogrowthesetradablesectors,metropolitanareasneedphysicalaccesstomarketsandstrong connectionswithinthem.GettingallofthosetouriststoLasVegasrequiresaglobally-connectedairport andseamlessaccesstohotels.Sheltering,feeding,andentertainingallofthoseout-of-townguests— plusthemillionsthatpermanentlyliveinLasVegas—requiresfreightcorridorsthatbringconstruction materials,freshfood,electronics,andotherconsumergoods.Likewise,theinnovationandproductivity benefitsgeneratedbydenseclustersoffirms—knownasagglomerations—relyheavilyonbuildingsin closeproximityandtheinfrastructureassetsthatmakesuchbusinessdistrictspossible(MuroandKatz, 2010).Transportationisthegreatenableroftradableindustries. Whilegrowingtradableindustriesisfundamentaltometropolitaneconomichealth,accesstoeconomic opportunityisequallyimportant.Unfortunately,inequalityisacontinualprobleminmetropolitan America.ToomanyAmericansarenotonlypoorbutalsoliveinwhatareneighborhoodsof concentratedpoverty,whichthemselvesareassociatedwithhighercrimerates,worsehealthoutcomes, failingschools,andfewerjobopportunities(Sharkey,2013).Whilethemajorityofthesehigh-poverty neighborhoodsarestillincentercities,themajorityofallpoorhouseholdsnowliveinthesuburbs—and thosecommunitiestendtonotofferthesamesocialservicesthatpreviousgenerationshadavailablein centralcities(KneeboneandBerube,2013).Highlevelsofemploymentdecentralizationalsocomplicate 6 theabilityforhistoricallyunder-employedworkerstoconnecttojobopportunitiesnowspreadallacross theexpandedmetropolitanboundaries(Kneebone,2009). Hereagain,transportationandurbanplanningplayacriticalroleinbothcreatingandaddressing inequality.Thevastdistancesbetweenwherepeopleliveandwheretheywork,study,andshop compelslowincomehouseholdstotakeontheaddedcostofowningandmaintainingacar(Tomer 2011).Thisintroducesafarhigherhouseholdexpensethanridingtransit,biking,orwalking,butthe alternativeformanyindividualsisthelosttimeittakestotravelbynon-privatevehicles.Onemajorfor whythemajorityofpoorhouseholdsliveinthesuburbsandmusttravelsuchlongdistancesisapursuit ofaffordablehousing.Thisreflectsafailureoftheplanningpractitionerstoprovideenoughaffordable housinginneighborhoodsthatofferthekindofconnectivitywherepeoplecanchoosetonotownacar. Inresponse,plannersmustdoabetterjobusingland-useandtransportationtoolstoenhance opportunitiesfortraditionallydisadvantagedpopulations. Finally,protectingaregion’senvironmentalhealthandfosteringresiliencyisofparamounteconomic import.High-profilenaturaldisasters,suchasSuperstormSandy,elevatedtheprofileofAmericancities’ susceptibilitytomajorenvironmentalevents.Thecombinationofwashed-outroads,floodedtrain stations,andshortedelectricalcircuitryhighlightedtheeconomy’srelianceonthesenetworksandthe poorandagingconditionofmanyoftheseimportantsystems.Atthesametime,theclimateimperative createsnewopportunitiesinthe“greeneconomy,”orthoseadvancedindustrieslikesolarpanel manufacturingandarchitecturaldesignthatwilldeveloptheproductsandplansthatfacilitatea transitiontoalower-carbonfuture. Yetit’simpossibletoachievelong-runsustainabilityandresiliencewithoutanenvironmentallycoordinatedtransportationsystem.Duetothesheervolumeofcarsontheroad,thedistancesthey drive,andtheirnearsole-relianceonfossilfuels,transportationisthesingle-largestpollutingsector.The physicaldesignoftransportationfacilitiesalsoharmstheenvironment,mostnotablythroughthe impervioussurfacesonroadsandinparkinglotsthatcauseexcessivestormwaterrunoff.Plus,by continuingtobuildroadsthatpromoteoutwardgrowth,humansconsumeopenlandthatprovide naturalhabitatstootheranimalsandwhosevegetationoffernaturaloffsetstocarbonemissions.By buildingdenserandwithbetterstreetdesign,transportationplanningcanreduceenergyconsumption andmitigateenvironmentalimpacts. TransitioningtoamoreproductiveeconomicmodelisalreadyunderwayinNevada.Thestateis pursuinganaggressiveapproachtogrowingtradableindustriesandimprovingSTEMeducationtoboost futureeconomicopportunities(Leeandothers,2014).ThenewTeslabattery“gigafactory”inRenohas positionedthestateasanationalleaderinbothadvancedindustriesandthegreeneconomy.LasVegas issimilarlyseekingtodiversifytheregionaleconomy,likewiththedevelopmentofthenewUNLV medicalschool.ManyotherhighdeserteconomiesalreadylooktoLasVegasforitsinnovativewater conservationefforts. Yetwhatcan’tbeoverlookedbylocalleadersarethetransportationinvestmentsthatwillunleashthe potentialofthesefoundationaleconomicdecisions.Equallyimportanttoareformedeconomicvisionis recalibratingtheirplanningmodelsandfindinginnovativewaystopayfornewinvestments. 7 MoveSeattle:UsingTransporttoBuildaModernUrbanEconomy Byanymeasure,theSeattleeconomyisbooming.Thecombinationofadvancedmanufacturingthrough firmslikeBoeingandthemoderndigitaltechnologyboomledbyMicrosoftandAmazonhashelped Seattlesecureclearcomparativeadvantagesintheglobaleconomyandanenviableamountofhighpayingjobs.Seattleisalsoconsistentlyoneofthefastest-growinglargecitiesinAmerica,addingnearly 100,000residentsbetween2000and2015. Butallthiseconomicgrowthhascausedsignificantphysicalgrowthpains.WhileSeattleisworld-famous foritsinimitableskyline,itiseasytoforgetthatstunningviewispartiallyduetoseriousgeographic constraints.Thecityishemmed-inbyPugetSoundtothewestandLakeWashingtontotheeast. Downtownisontheskinniestlandmass,creatinganeffectivefunnelforcommutersinalldirections.It maybebeautiful,butitishardtofitallthosenewpeopleandgrowingbusinessesinsuchatightspace. MoveSeattleisthecity’splantobothsupporttheregion’slong-termeconomichealthandaddress thosephysicallimitations.Firstoff,theplanitselfdoesnotstartwithtransportationobjectives—it describedthealignmentofthecity’scorevalues(e.g.,safety,vibrancy,affordability.)Second,it recognizesthatthecityislargelybuilt-outandthereisnoroomformoremajorroadways.Asaresult, thebestwaytoconnectpeopletoeconomicopportunityistosupportamorecompetitive transportationlandscape.Thatmeansimprovedmultimodaloptionslikemorebikelanes,greatertransit access,andimprovedsidewalks.Buildingfromtheregion’sindustrialbase,theplanalsorecognizesthe disruptivepotentialofnewtransportationtechnologylikemobiletravelerinformationandshared vehiclesandconsidersthepotentialimpactsonthebuiltenvironment(SeattleDOT,2015). Butthisismorethanjustasmartplan—itnowhasthefinancialsupporttoachieveimplementation. Seattlecityvotersapproveda$930millionballotreferendainNovember2015tofundtheprogram (Kroman,2015).ThenewpropertytaxrevenueswillallowSeattletoimmediatelystartworkonthese transformativeprojects.Ifimplementationgoeswell,Seattlemaysoonbeknownasmuchforhowits transportationidentityastheplanesandsoftwareitbuilds. Establishinganeconomicvisionclarifiestheoutcomesametroareahopestoachievethroughits transportationsystemandurbanplans.Movingforward,thatmustincludeeffortstoimprove pedestrianaccess,high-capacitytransitandbicycleinfrastructurealongsideeffortstoimprove automobilemovement.Metroareasmustgomultimodaltoachievetheireconomicobjectives. Toimplementsuchamode-neutralapproach,economists,planners,andengineersrefertoaccessibility astheeaseofreachingvalueddestinations(jobs,shops,schools,entertainment,andrecreation), typicallybymeasuringthetotalnumberofplacesreachableinagivenamountoftime.Thatpermits simultaneousconsiderationofresidential,commercial,andindustrialrealestateconcernswhenmaking transportation-baseddecisions.Itisalsodesignedtobeoutcome-orientedmetric,meaningaccessibility caneffectivelyreflecttransportation’seconomicandsocialimpact(Geurs&vanWee,2003).Ortoputit anotherway,accessibilitybetterreflectshowindividualsthinkwhenplanningtheirtrips:“canIgetto thatnewjobfromhere?;howfaristheclosestgrocerystore?;canmychildrenwalkorbiketoapark?” WhilethemobilitymodelcontinuestoserveAmericanmetrosasamethodtodesignnewinvestments, thatmodelisflexibleenoughtoincludeanaccessibilitylens.Forexample,comparingtheamountofjobs reachablein60minutesbetweenprivatevehiclesandtransitshowsanextremeadvantageforvehicles 8 (OwenandLevinson,2014).Accessibilitymodelshelpexplainwhyoldercitieswithmoredefinedstreet grids—suchasWashington,DCandBoston—exhibitfarhigherratesofwalkingandbicyclingthanpeer citieswithmoresuburbandesigns—suchasNashvilleandDetroit(McKenzie,2014). Manyofthesesamecommunitiesthatdeliverthehighestaccessibilitylevelstotheirresidentsand visitorsalikealsoshareanothervitalcharacteristic:theyvalueandfosterthedevelopmentofpublic spaces. Considersomeofthegreatpublicspaces,manyofthemtouristhubs,synonymouswithpopularglobal cities.Thegreatcathedrals,pedestrian-onlystreets,andpublicsquaresofEuropeancitieslikeVienna, Milan,andBarcelonahavelongattractedtouristsandlocalresidentsfortheiraestheticcharmandmix ofretailandfoodoptions.Buttheseplacesarealsoalive,aspeopleliveandworkinthesameplace.The sameappliestomanygreatAmericanneighborhoods,fromManhattan’sVillagetoChicago’sRiverNorth toSanFrancisco’sEmbarcadero.Placeswithatruemixofuses,orientedtoservepeopleandnot necessarilytheircars.Incontrast,considerthearchetypalAmericancommunalspaceofthelater twentiethcentury:themall.Itselfawalledgardenofretailoptionssurroundedbyaveritablemoatof parking,themalliseffectivelyaprivatecommercialcastle. Greateraccessibilityisalsoconnectedwithhigherlandvalues,signifyingitseconomicvaluetoresidents, businesses,and—duetothegreatertaxreturnspersquaremile—government(Hansen,1959).In particular,manyofthemostaccessibleneighborhoodsalsoincludestopsalonghigh-frequencytransit lines,andthetransit-orienteddevelopmentsurroundingthesestopstendstodeliverhigherlandvalues andsubstantialcapitalizationbenefits(CerveroandDuncan,2002).Somewhatironically,thesame neighborhoodswithhighlevelsofaccessibilityandhigherlandvaluestendtohavepermanent automobilecongestion.ConsiderthatManhattaniscongestedatanytimeofday,butit’sthatvery clusteringofeconomicactivitythatmakeitsuchadesirableplacetolive,work,andvisit. Ofcourse,carswillcontinuetobeavaluabletransportationcomponentofeveryAmericanmetroarea. Thekeymovingforwardistoreversethedirectionalityofplanningpractice,bystartingwithtothe promotionofeconomicoutcomesandthenconsideringthoseoptionsthroughthelensofall transportationmodes.Forexample,communitiesaroundtheworldfromBerlin,toLondon,toSeattle haveremovedmandatoryparkingminimumsfordowntownbuildingsandotheractivitycenters,intheir placeusingspatialplanningtechniques,improvedtransitoperations,andnewbikelanestripingto attractamixoftransportationmodesandreducetheparkingburden.Thiskindofplanningisespecially importantastheriseofon-demandrideservices,e-commerce,andothertechnology-fueledtrendsmay reducetotalindividualtrips,therebyrequiringlessfutureroadspaceandparking(Beenandothers, 2012). LasVegasiswell-positionedtoimplementanaccessibility-basedapproachtocomplementitsfocuson mobility,urbanplanning,transportationinvestment,andplacemaking.TheRegionalTransportation CommissionofSouthernNevada’s(RTC)certificationastheofficialmetropolitanplanningorganization (MPO)fortheregion—togoalongwithitspriorresponsibilitiesfortransitoperations,traffic management,andconstructionfunding—makesitanidealcentralactortocoordinateametropolitanwidestrategyforimprovedaccessibility.Meanwhile,theSouthernNevadaStrongRegionalPlan providesaclearblueprintforbuildingaproductive,inclusive,andsustainableeconomy.Finally,the region’simpressivetourismindustryoffersacaptiveaudienceinterestedinnon-automobiletravel. 9 Munich’sTourism:MadePossiblebyTransportation LongthehubofGermaneconomicstrength,Munichisnothingshortofaglobalmanufacturing powerhouse.Thesectorgeneratesover$37billioninoutputperyear,producedthroughamixof multinationalfirmslikeBMWandsmall-andmedium-enterprisesfocusedincomplementaryindustries (ParillaandOthers,2015).Itcomplementsthismanufacturingbasewithstrongtradableindustriesin financeandinformationcommunicationtechnologies.Thisresultsinoneofthehighestdisposable incomesacrossEurope,anapprenticeshipsystemtomaintainapipelineoftalentedworkersand managers,andstrongtradeconnectionsthroughouttheworld.(ClarkandMoonen,2014). ButMunichismuchmorethanjustanindustrialcenter—itisalsooneoftheworld’sgreattouristcities. RebuiltafterWorldWarII,Munichoffersanenviablecollectionofphysicalassets:oneofthemost charmingcitycentersinEurope,grandpublicsquaresandparks,remarkableartmuseums,andmodern eventcentersliketheAllianzArena.Supportingthesephysicalassetsisafirst-classsetofprogrammed activities,mostnotablyOktoberfest,classicalmusicseries,andafilmfestival.Asaresult,tourists continuetoflocktotheBavariancapital:ithosted6.6millionovernightvisitorsin2014,up57percent sincejust2005(Bavaria,2015). MovingalloftheselocalworkersandvisitorswithinoneofEurope’slargestcitiesisn’teasy,butMunich offersapromisingmodelforhowcoordinatedtransportationinvestmentscansimultaneouslysupporta diversifiedeconomyandheavytourismactivity. Thebackbonetothissystemisanextensivetransitandnon-motorizedtravelsystemthatseamlessly connectsallofthosemajortouristattractions.TheMunichTransportandTariffAssociationmanages32 fixedraillinesandover280milesofbusroutes—forametroareaofonly3.9millionpeople—anduses multilanguagesignageandfocusonservicereliabilitytoattracttouristridership(KinsellaandCaulfield, 2011).Meanwhile,well-markedbikelanes,well-maintainedsidewalks,andpedestrian-onlystreetshelp touristsspendmoretimeseeingsitesthansimplytravelingbetweenthem.Combined,thishelpstourists savemoneybystayingoutofcars—rentalortaxi—andleavingmoreroadspaceavailableforcommuters andlocalfreight.Researchalsoconfirmsthatthesetransit-richinvestmentshelpattracttouriststothe mobilityoptions(Le-Klähn,Gerike,andHall,2014). However,itwouldbeimpossibletomaintainasystemofthisscalewithoutclearutilityforthemajority ofitsusers:localresidentsandbusinesses.Thosesametrainandbuslinesstretchdeepintothesuburbs andfarbeyondthecenter-citytouristattraction,connectinglocalresidentstojobopportunities, schools,andotherkeyservices.TheHauptbahnhofoffershigh-speedrailconnectionstotherestof Europe,facilitatingbusinesstravelalongsidetouristflows.Finally,MunichAirportconnectsthecityto therestoftheworldviatheLufthansaoperationalhubanddirectconnectionsto68countries. Munichprovesthatacityneedn’tchoosebetweenadiverseeconomyandstricttourismfocus.Instead, anycitylookingforthatkindofeconomicdynamismmustnotforgettoinvestinamultimodal transportationnetwork. 10 IV. PayingforIt:TransportationPlanninginanEraofFiscalConstraint Mosttransportationandurbanplanningissuesareinextricablytiedtoarangeoffunding,finance,and budgetconsiderations,includingthecapitalandoperatingcostsandrelatedpricing/costrecovery options.Today,stateandlocalgovernmentsareincreasinglyconstrainedbylimitedfinancialresources andothercompetingspendingprioritiestoacceleratetransportationinvestments.Nevadaisparticularly constrainedinthisregardwitharecentUNLVreportprojectinga$377millionannualdeficitinthestate highwayfundby2030ifadditionalrevenuesarenotraised.(BrownandMaravich,2013). Thereareseveralreasonsforthisshortfallininvestment.Aprimaryculpritisthatmotorfuelstaxesat thefederalandstatelevels(whichcomprisethelargestsinglesourceoftransportationrevenuefor federalandstategovernments)arenotproducingadequaterevenuetomeetsystemneeds.Motorfuels taxreceiptsareleviedonaper-gallonbasis,andunlessthetaxrateisregularlyincreasedorindexedto accountforinflation,fuelstaxescanfaceerodingpurchasingpower.Nevada,forexample,hasnot raiseditsfueltaxfor23years.(ITEP,2015).4Thisshortfallisparticularlyacutebecausethecostof constructionandmaterialshasbeenrisingandisprojectedtocontinuerising.Theresultisthatthe purchasingpowerofthefederalgovernmentandmanystategovernmentshasbeendecliningatthe sametimedemandisincreasing. Sostatesarealsolookingatdebtfinancetoolssuchasstateinfrastructurebankstoleveragetheir existingresourcesandaccelerateprojects.Forexample,stateinfrastructurebanks(SIBs)canoperate revolvingloanfundsandtypicallyhaveaboardthatusesspecifiedcriteriatomakestrategicinvestments intransportation.Aftertheyareprovidedinitialcapital,theycanprovidearevolvingrevenuesourceto fundpriorityprojectsandsupplementexistingrevenuesources.Sinceestablishedinthe1990sSIBshave providedbillionsinfinancingformorethan1,000projects.However,thisactivityishighlyconcentrated injustafewstatesasmanyareunderutilizedorinactive.KansasandGeorgiaaretheonlystatesinthe UnitedStatesthatoperatestate-onlycapitalizedtransportationbanks(i.e.,nofederalmoney.) SouthCarolina’sinfrastructurebankisoneofthenation’soldestandmostactive,investingnearly$2.8 billionsinceitscreationin1995andovercomingtheloancapacityissuesofotherSIBsbyleveragingits capitalization.SouthCarolina’sbankreceivesdedicatedstaterevenuespledgedtobondrepayments: $25millionfromthestategastax,$35millionfromcarregistrationfees,and$60millionfromtruck registrationfees.TheSouthCarolinaSIBsupportsprojectsthroughgrantsandloans,givingpreference tothosewithastronglocalmatch.AlthoughNevadahasastaterevolvingloanfundforwater infrastructure,itdoesnothaveonefortransportation.(PuentesandThompson2012). Overthelong-term,statesmayhaveaninterestinreplacingthemotorfueltaxasaprimarysourceof revenuefortransportation.Onepossiblereplacementstatescanlooktoisavehiclemilestraveledfee (usingGPSorothertechnologytochargeusersforeverymiledriven).Amilestraveledfeecouldprovide atechnologicalplatformforgreateruseofcongestionpricingandcouldbemoreeffectiveinmanaging demandthanthemotorfueltax.Italsowouldbeapplicableregardlessoffuelsource,whereasthe currentmotorfueltaxdoesnotapplytomanyalternativefuelorelectricvehicles,whichareonly becomingmorecommoninthefuture.Nevadaisoneofthenationalleadersintermsofstudyingthe 4 MetropolitanLasVegasisuniquenationallygiventheClarkCountyfuelrevenueindexingprogram,whichlinks thelocalgastaxtoinflation.Thespecialassessmentwillexpireattheendof2016,whenitwillriseto10cents pergallon. 11 potentialapplicationofaVMTfeebutprospectsforapplicationinthenearfutureareunknown(Baker, 2014).Sofar,VMTfeesareonlyimplementedinOregoninalimitedpilotthatbeganearlierthisyear, andinGermanyforuseontrucks. Thesenewandtraditionalmodelsarebeingconsideredatatimewhenpolicymakersatalllevelsworkto alleviatethepublic’sconcernthattaxpayerswillbearthetotalcostsoftransportationimprovements. Whichiswhytheuseofalternativefinancingapproaches,suchaspublic-privatepartnerships(PPPs), attractsomuchattentiongiventheirrealabilitytohelpspreadriskandofferflexibilityforpublic agencies,acceleratingthecompletionofmanyinfrastructureprojectsovertime(Gatti,2013). WhilePPPsareneitherasolutiontoallAmerica’sinfrastructurechallengesnoracorporatetakeoverof publicassets,awell-executedPPPcanbeavaluabletoolforattractingprivatesectorcapitalandproject expertiseinordertomoveforwardonpriorityprojects.Onetypeofpublic-privatepartnership,anasset lease,hasthepotentialtoprovidesignificantupfrontcapitalthatcanbeusedtofundanumberof transportationpriorities.However,thesepartnershipsoftenrequireeithernewuserfeesorprivate collectionofexistinguserfees(suchastolls)thatprovideareturnoninvestmenttotheprivatepartner. (SabolandPuentes,2014). AnotherexampleonthelocallevelisthecreationoftheChicagoInfrastructureTrust(CIT),amarketorientedinstitutionthatattractsprivatecapitalinterestedinsteadyreturnsandmakesinvestment decisionsbasedonmeritandevidenceratherthanpolitics.LikeCalifornia'sI-Bankitcutsacross differenttypesofinfrastructuresuchastransportationandtelecommunications,andlikeConnecticut's GreenBankitemphasizesthegeneration,transmission,andadoptionofalternativeenergy.TheCITwill becapitalizedthroughdirectinvestmentsfromprivatefinancingorganizationssomeofwhichhave expressedinterestthatcouldreach$1billionormoreintotalinvestmentcapacity. Onanevenlargerscale,theWestCoastInfrastructureExchangeisbuildingapipelineofprojectsacross infrastructuretypesforCalifornia,Oregon,Washington,andBritishColumbiabyidentifyingand preparingassetsforPPPprocurement(Kim2014).Thesearethetypesofmarketswheretheprivate sectorwilldevoteitstimeandresourcesfortheforeseeablefuture.Indeed,anewIntermountain InfrastructureExchangewasrecentlylaunchedbetweenColorado,Utah,andArizona(Hendee2015). Anexampleoflinkingtransportationplanningwithprivatesectorresourcesistheexpansionoftransitorienteddevelopment.Thistypeofdevelopment,aidedbycarefulanddeliberateplanningprocesses, givescitiesandmetropolitanareastheabilitytopromotemoreaccessibletransportoptionsand complementarylanduses.Butitalsorevealshowadditionalvaluecanbecapturedfromthese propertiestofuelfutureinfrastructureimprovements.Afterall,investmentsintransportation infrastructurecreatevalueforlandownersneartheinvestment.Sohowcanthatvaluebecapturedto fundtheinvestmentinthefirstplace? Thetermforthis—valuecapture—referstoatypeoffinancingwherenon-transportationusers, primarilyadjacentpropertyownerswhobenefitfromtransportationprojects,contributetothecostsof suchprojects(IstrateandLevinson,2011).Itisoftenproposedasawaytousepublictaxingauthorityto helpfinanceinvestmentintransportationthroughtaxesonnearbyprivatedevelopment,insomeways mimickingthelinkbetweenprivaterailtransitandprivatelanddevelopmentacenturyago. Theideaisthatrailsystems,byimprovingaccessibility,willincreaselandvalues.Theincrementoverany pre-existingpropertyvaluecanthenbetaxed,thereby“capturing”thebenefitthataccruestoprivate 12 landownersbyvirtueofthepublicrailinvestmentandhelpingtodefrayrailconstructionoroperating costs.Althoughtheideaofvaluecapturehasbeendiscussedinpolicycirclesforyears,itisemployedin relativelyfewplacesandmostprominentlyintheformofbenefitassessmentdistrictsinmetropolitan areaslikeMiami,Florida;andLosAngeles,California.(O’Sullivan,2014). Forexample,constructionofatransitstationislikelytoincreaselandvaluesinthewalkingradiusnear thearea.Thelocalgovernmentcouldchoosetodedicatethetaxesfromtheincrementalincreasein propertyvaluestorepayingbondsissuedforitsconstruction,anapproachknownastaxincrement financing(TIF).Alternatively,privatepropertyownerscouldchoosetocreateaspecialtaxdistrictthat wouldallocatecostsoftheprojecttobeneficiaries.The$7billionSilverLinerailprojectinNorthern Virginiawaspartiallyfinancedthisway(Roukouniandothers,2014). CapturingValueinPublicAssets:VirginiaAirRights Ascitiesandstatescontinuetolookforsourcesofrevenue,neweffortsareemergingtocapturethe enormousvalueinthelandthepublicsectoralreadyowns.Bostonusedthisvaluecapturetechniqueto deriverevenuefromtheCentralArtery/TunnelProject(the“BigDig”).NewYorkpursuedasimilar contracttobuildoutaportionoftheBarclay’sCenterinBrooklyn.Today,anideainArlington,Virginia, couldliterallypavethewayforanew,economicallyintegrated,modelofairrightsdevelopment. Theideaofpursuingapartnershiponairrightscameoutofadrivetosecurenewrevenuesforthe state.Fortunately,Virginia’sOfficeofTransportationPublicPrivatePartnerships(OTP3)alreadyhasa strongtrackrecordinnegotiatingawiderangeofriskandcapitalsharingprojectsbetweenthestate andtheprivatesector.Notably,OTP3successfullynegotiatedthecomplexhighoccupancytolllane projectonVirginia’sportionoftheWashingtonbeltwaywithaprivatepartner,Transurban,aswellas morethan$6.3billioninotherprojectswithinthelasttwoyears.However,theairrightsproject requiredthestatetofundamentallychangethewayitnormallythinksaboutwhatitownsandcontrols, notjustasastewardandabuilder,butalsoaspropertyownerandredevelopmentpartner. Aninitialscanofthestate’stransportationassetssurfacedanumberofpotentialpropertiesindense urbanareas.ThemostpromisingisaboveInterstate66intheRosslynareaofArlington.Directlyacross thePotomacRiverfromWashington,D.C.,Unfortunately,thiscenterofbusinessactivityisisolatedfrom theriverfrontandtheCapitalbythebusyurbanfreeway,limitingopportunitiesforRosslyn’sgrowth. Throughaninternalanalysis,andinconsultationwiththerealestateinvestmentfirmJonesLangLaSalle, thestatedeterminedthatitcouldpotentially“create”over10acresofdevelopableland,drivehundreds ofmillionsofdollarsinprivatesectorinvestment,provide$24millioninadditionaltaxrevenueforthe county,andgenerateseveralmilliondollarsayearinrecurringrevenueforthestate.(VirginiaOTP3, 2013). V. Conclusion Theoryandpracticehaveestablishedalinkbetweeneconomicgrowthandtransportationinvestments. 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