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A Fuel Saver Concept for Indonesia:
How to Roll- out Solar PV on a 100 MW Scale to
Substitute Diesel in Island Grids
03. June 2013
Dr.-Ing. Matthias Eichelbrönner (E.Quadrat GmbH)
Consultant to GIZ, Germany
E.Quadrat GmbH
04.06.2013
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Content
1. Some findings about Solar Energy in Indonesia
2. Economical Aspects of Photovoltaic Installations
3. Roll-out of 100 MW of Photovoltaic Solar Power
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Irradiation at different locations in Indonesia
Selection for different calculations:
4.1 kWh/m2/day
4,8 kWh/m2/day
5.2 kWh/m2/day
5.5 kWh/m2/day
IRRADIATION (BPPT-ESDM 1970), horizontal
Average = 4.8 kWh/m2/day
5,5
5,5
5,3
5,1
5,0
4,6
4,1
4,2
5,2
5,0
4,9
4,6
4,3
4,2
[Germany: 3.0 – 3.2 kWh/m2/day]
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PLN Generation Cost of electricity per region
Papua & West Papua
2616
NTT
2644
NTB
2656
Maluku & North Maluku
2663
S, SE, W Sulawesi
1715
N & C Sulawesi & Gorontalo
1859
S&C Kalimantan
2370 based on world
market price Diesel
12/2012
1685
West Kalimantan
2639
Jamali
811
Southern Sumatera
2800
Maumere, Flores
884
Northern Sumatera
Up to 9000
at remote areas!
1093
0
500
1000
Calculated from Statistics of PLN 2011, GIZ, EQ
1500
2000
2500
3000
Rp/kWh
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Specific Findings about Photovoltaics in Indonesia
No market existing due to no promotion programme in force
Technical, operational and economical experience missing, only some
small companies trying hard to develop business through negotiated PPA
or off-grid systems
PLN executes 100 Islands solar programme 100% solar power
Experiences made from older solar PV installations are often poor
Know-How and capacity building in terms of implementation, operation and
economics needed
No awareness regarding quality matters along the entire value chain of PV
Economics of generation costs of solar electricity turn out absolutely
positive, once implementation costs see European level
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Challenges
Fast development of Kow-How and capacity building
Education on quality matters along the entire value chain of PV
Fast penetration of solar energy into an existing Diesel-Gen-Set world
Development of business models accepted by finance institutions
Support PLN and private developers to create solar business
Make DGS and grid operators to rely on solar power
Creation of 100reds of MW market within short term
Make the government understand the macroeconomic benefits of solar
energy compared to fuel subsidies
>> How can a Roll-out of Solar PV on a 100 MW scale encourage
and support and how can it be executed?
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Content
1. Some findings about Solar Energy in Indonesia
2. Economical Aspects of Photovoltaic Installations
3. Roll-out of 100 MW of Photovoltaic Solar Power
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Crucial Aspects
Investments costs for solar PV must see an European level in the range of
1200 to 1800 €/kWp through large amounts of orders - the 100 MW target!
Transfer of diesel OPEX to photovoltaic CAPEX as the finance mechanism
Technical installations must be designed easy to adopt and implement for
different sizes of DGS – several kW and MW clusters to be defined
DGS operators, private or PLN, shall not face operational risks in their grid
once PV will be installed
All installations have to be accompanied by a measurement unit and an
evaluation period to create grid knowledge for later PV expansion
Phase wise implementation of PV: start small and penetrate in parallel with
experience
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Development of PV-Implementation Costs in Germany
Q4 status, commercial:
Retail price for small installations < 100 kWp,
turnkey = 1,400 €/kWp, ~ 16,4 Mio. Rp/kWp
System costs for large installations > 1 MW,
below 1,200 €/kWp, ~ 14,0 Mio. Rp/kWp
Q4: poly c-Si modules, ~ 7 Mio. Rp/kWp
Conversion factor Rupia /€ =11.669
Source: BSW; own calculations
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Static Amortization of Photovoltaic Investments
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Accumulated EBITA at different investment costs of PV
Versus Costs of diesel-power 2370 Rp/kWh (World Market Price Diesel 7900 Rp/liter (12/2012)), rise 3 %/a; 3% safety margin on energy yield;
70% loan, interest 8%/a (state bank 5.75%/a, 2012); redemption period 9 years; inflation 5%/a (4.6%/a, 2011); OPEX 13% of revenues
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Content
1. Some findings about Solar Energy in Indonesia
2. Economical Aspects of Photovoltaic Installations
3. Roll-out of 100 MW of Photovoltaic Solar Power
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Roll-out Concept of 100 MW of Photovoltaic Solar Power
100 MW PV introduction as a fuel saver roll-out to 50 islands, where
Diesel-Gen-Sets (DGS) are installed today
No interference with existing diesel gen-sets as a precondition
Fuel saving starting from 20% ratio PV to diesel gen-set powerL
L some 40% to be implemented in two phases
High speed of implementation as a challenge
Attractive concept to PLN, developers, investors, banks targeting
reasonable investment costs
Implementation friendly is a must: PV to be connected to existing DGS
Utility friendly concept to PLN and its operators necessary, specific
measurements and data acquisition foreseen starting in phase I
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Flow Diagram Phase I and II: from 41 MW to 100 MW
Execution of Phase I: 50 sites, ~ 41 MW PV power
Execution of Phase II: 50 sites, plus ~ 59 MW PV power
Future Phases ...
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Flow Diagram Phase I: first installations approx. 41 MW
Execution of Phase I: identification of 50 sites, approx. 41 MW PV power
Preparation and
design of
PV installation sets
plus measurement
units
Implementation of
PV installations and
measurement units
per site
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Data acquisition
and evaluation of
DGS + PV system
installed
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Flow Diagram Phase II: from 41 MW to 100 MW
Execution of Phase II: 50 sites, plus 59 MW PV power
Site-wise design of
enlargement of
PV installation, some
40% of power or
highest PV to DGS
ratio possible
Implementation of
PV enlargements
per site
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Data acquisition and
operation control
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Phase I: Better to start with small PV ratio
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Phase
I: PV System and Measurement Unit
xxx
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Selection of Classes of small PV installations < 1 MW
Example:
PT. PLN (Persero) Region East Kalimantan
PT. PLN (Persero) Region South and Central Kalimantan
PT. PLN (Persero) Region West NUSA TENGGARA
PT. PLN (Persero) Region East NUSA TENGGARA
PT. PLN (Persero) Region South Sulawesi
PT. PLN (Persero) Region Southeast Sulawesi
PT. PLN (Persero) Region North, Central Sulawesi and
Gorontalo
PT. PLN (Persero) Region Maluku and North Maluku
PT. PLN (Persero) Region PAPUA & West PAPUA
Total: 293 PV sites
Selection of classes of PV installations (Phase I):
8 sites 500 kW
8 sites 400 kW
8 sites 300 kW
8 sites 200 kW
8 sites 100 kW
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Selection of Classes of large PV installations ≥ 1 MW
BIG SCALE SOLAR PV ( > 5 MW)
YEAR 2012 - 2014
EAST INDONESIA
WEST INDONESIA
Peak load
MW
1.082
432
PV
kWp
216.344
86.420
Number of sites: 72
PV power (20% of installed Diesel-GenSet power):
Minimum : 1,000 kW
Maximum: 30,000 kW
Selection of classes of PV installations
(Phase I):
10 sites to be selected at
- reasonable spread,
- no extreme power,
- replicable size
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Selection of 50 sites for Phase I and Phase II
Sites of ≥ 1 MW
Selection of classes of PV installations (Phase I):
1 site 9000 kW
1 site 5000 kW
2 sites 3000 kW
3 sites 2000 kW
3 sites 1000 kW
Total number: 10 sites
PV peak power: 29 MW (Phase I), 41 MW (Phase II)
Total PV peak power: 70 MW
Sites of < 1 MW
Selection of classes of PV installations (Phase I):
8 sites 500 kW
8 sites 400 kW
8 sites 300 kW
8 sites 200 kW
8 sites 100 kW
Total number: 40 sites
PV peak power: 12 MW (Phase I), 18 MW (Phase II)
Total PV peak power: 30 MW
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Estimations of total investment Phase I + II (100 MW)
Estimation of total investments Step 1 (41 MW) and Step 2 (59 MW)
Implementation
Peak Power
> 1 MW
< 1 MW
Total
Number Step I
of sites
n
MW
10
29
40
12
50
41
Step II
€/kW
1 400
1 800
1 517
Data Acquisition and Evaluation
Costs per installation T€
15
Units plus infrastructure
50
Detailed Site Planning
Peak Power
> 1 MW
< 1 MW
Total
Total
Step I
specific factor
3%
4%
MW
41
T€
40 600
21 600
62 200
billion Rp
487
259
746
T€
750
billion Rp
9,0
MW
41
18
59
€/kW
1 200
1 400
1 261
T€
49 200
25 200
74 400
billion Rp
590
302
893
T€
1 476
1 008
2 484
billion Rp
17,7
12,1
29,8
MW
59
T€
76 884
billion Rp
923
MW
100
T€
141 916
billion Rp
1 703
Step II
T€
1 218
864
2 082
billion Rp
14,6
10,4
25,0
T€
65 032
billion Rp
780
Cost Estimation
Grand Total
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Estimations of Finance Concept Step I + II (100 MW)
Finance Concept Step 1 (41 MW) and Step 2 (59 MW)
Step I
Total
Equity
Loans
Grand Total
Equity
Loans
Grand Total
30%
70%
T€
65 032
19 510
45 522
billion Rp Step II
780
234
546
30%
70%
100%
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T€
76 884
23 065
53 819
billion Rp
923
277
646
T€
42 575
99 341
141 916
billion Rp
511
1 192
1 703
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Potential Investment Structure
Potential Investor Consortium:
International utility, PLN, finance group, IPP
Turn Key
Supplier
n.n.
100 MW PV Investment
Approx. 142 Mio. EUR / 1.800 Billion Ruphia
Potential Finance Structure
Equity approx. 43 Mio.EUR / 511 Billion Ruphia
Loan approx. 100 Mio.EUR / 1200 Billion Ruphia
PPA (bankable)
PLN
Operator
IPP/PLN
National/International
Bank Syndicate
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Investment Aspects
International consortium partners needed for investment
Development should be prepared through or in collaboration with PLN
PLN has to provide bankable PPA
IPP or BOT model feasible for operation of PV installations
Turn key supplier recommended providing bankable reputation in terms of
PV installations and high quality assurance
National and international banks should be involved to transfer non
recourse or limited recourse project finance to Indonesia
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Thank you for your attention !
Disclaimer
This report was prepared by E.Quadrat GmbH & Co.
Projekt- und Beratungs- KG (E.Quadrat)
This report was prepared for the use of GIZ Indonesia,
Jakarta that have supported this effort.
This report contains statements, which are subject to
information
provided
by
GIZ,
uncertainties
and
assumptions that are difficult to predict. All statements in
this report other than statements of historical fact, are
forward-looking assumptions or statements.
The work presented in this report represents our best
Dr. Matthias Eichelbrönner
Managing Director
efforts and judgments based on the information available
E.Quadrat GmbH & Co. Projekt- und Beratungs- KG
responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the
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report, nor any decisions based on the report.
www.equadrat-gmbh.eu
and opinions contained in the report.
at the time that we prepared this report. E.Quadrat is not
E.Quadrat
DOES NOT MAKE ANY REPRESENTATIONS,
OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED. Readers of
the report are advised that they assume all liabilities
incurred by them, or third parties, as a result of their
reliance on the report, or the data, information, findings
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