REUTERS/GORAN TOMASEVIC EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION sfdsfdsfds © Thomson Reuters 2013. All Rights Reserved. This report is for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security of any entity in any jurisdiction. No guarantee is made that the information in this report is accurate or complete and no warranties are made with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. In addition, Lipper will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from information obtained from Lipper or any of its affiliates. For immediate assistance, feel free to contact Lipper at 44.20.7542.2710 or via email at lipperfmi@thomsonreuters.com. For more information about Lipper, please visit our website at www.lipperfmi.com or www.lipperweb.com. EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION OVERVIEW This year’s front cover is our nod to the current discussion as to whether there is a ‘Great Rotation’ underway, or on its way, in the funds industry. But before addressing this issue, it is important to look at the current state of the industry and the sales activity that has characterised the past year. KEY DATA: TOTAL # OF MASTER GROUPS . ..............................1,914 Sales across Europe totalled €230.4bn for ‘long-term’ funds in 2012, the fifth best year for the industry over the last decade (behind 2005-06 and 2009-10). However redemptions from money market funds totalled -€44.5bn over the year, and when these withdrawals are included the industry’s sales shrink to €185.9bn (only the seventh best total over the past ten years). TOTAL # OF COMPANIES........................................ 2,817 Bond funds dominated the year’s sales to a degree not previously seen in Lipper’s records, attracting €225.2bn. High Yield bonds and Emerging Market debt funds together accounted for 40% of the net flows into the broader asset class, with the former attracting €49.7bn (across different currencies) and the latter attracting €40.9bn (across both hard and local currency funds). ASSET GROWTH (2011 - 2012)......................... €644.1BN By contrast equity funds suffered redemptions of -€8.8bn over the course of the year. Having said this, sales activity for equity funds has generally improved over the sixteen months since the low point of August 2011 (the month in which €32bn was withdrawn from equity funds). This trend culminated in equity funds attracting €13.1bn in December 2012. Despite this, so far one can identify “Small Oscillations” rather than a “Great Rotation” in evidence among European fund investors. Bond funds still attracted €19.4bn in December, above their monthly average for the year (€18.8bn). The rest of this report is presented as a three course meal, with some introductory comments offered as an hors d’oeuvre, the main course of charts and tables from Lipper’s FundFile database, before ending with a dessert from SalesWatch, Lipper’s unique confidential benchmarking service that allows leading groups to track their cross-border sales and assets against competitors. A few new ingredients have been added to the recipe that makes up the European Fund Market Review, with some articles written over the course of the year to spice up the data that forms the base of this annual feast. Most of these articles were originally written for Reuters, and so thanks are due to Joel Dimmock, Reuters’ Top News Investment Management Editor, who has clearly shown that another cook does not “spoil the broth”. TOTAL # OF FUNDS............................................. 35,407 TOTAL NET ASSETS ....................................€5,930.6BN ESTIMATED NET SALES (2012)........................€185.8BN COMMENTARY BY: ED MOISSON HEAD OF UK & CROSS-BORDER RESEARCH ed.moisson@thomsonreuters.com PRODUCT MANAGER, LIPPER FUNDFILE: JÉRÔME COUTEUR jerome.couteur@thomsonreuters.com PRODUCT MANAGER, LIPPER SALESWATCH: BARBARA FERRARESI barbara.ferraresi@thomsonreuters.com LIPPER DATABASES FEATURED: FUNDFILE - http://bit.ly/LipperFundFile SALESWATCH - http://bit.ly/LipperSalesWatch Please note that the views expressed in this document are intended as non-consultative and do not constitute legal advice. EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION BEST SELLERS Three groups attracted inflows into long-term funds of more than €10bn: PIMCO (€35.1bn), AXA (€24.0bn, including AllianceBernstein) and BlackRock (€14.8bn). Still attracting impressive inflows, but just failing to make it onto the medal rostrum were Prudential/M&G (€9.4bn) and Nordea (€8.8bn). Reflecting where investors’ product preferences lay in 2012, inflows for each group were – to a greater or lesser extent – dominated by sales of these companies’ bond funds. One interesting ‘twist’ on this theme is the relative flows into BlackRock’s ETFs (iShares), where €11.4bn of inflows are almost equally split between bond and equity products. The best-selling individual funds are highlighted in the tables below, with the importance of fixed income plain to see. Also included this year is a dedicated table for mixed asset funds to reflect the scale of some of FIGURE 1A FIGURE 1B FIGURE 1C these funds’ success of late. All of the funds included here are categorised as ‘asset allocation’ products, with the individual managers able to invest across the spectrum as opportunities arise, often (but not always) with an absolute (i.e. above zero) return targeted as part of an investment objective. Interest in such funds has been strongest in the UK over the past year, but it is interesting to note that 115 asset allocation funds being sold cross-border were launched over the past year, with a further 51 launches of such products specifically targeting German investors. Writing as the IMA’s review into its Absolute Return sector is about to be revealed, it is perhaps the way of things that this fund association will be knocked irrespective of what they announce. But the UK is just one market in Europe, and funds seeking absolute return come in different guises in different markets. BEST-SELLING BOND FUNDS IN 2012 FUND BOND SECTOR SALES (€M) AllianceBernstein American Income Portfolio USD 8,234.5 PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond Fund USD 8,061.6 PIMCO GIS Global Investment Grade Credit Global Corporates 5,865.0 PIMCO GIS Diversified Income Fund Global Corporates 5,582.5 M&G Optimal Income Fund Flexible 5,138.3 BEST-SELLING EQUITY FUNDS IN 2012 FUND EQUITY SECTOR SALES (€M) M&G Global Dividend Global 2,720.9 Morgan Stanley-Global Brands Global 2,437.8 BlackRock IS Emerging Markets Index Fund Emerging Markets 2,401.9 Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Equity Emerging Markets 2,352.0 DWS Top Dividende Global 1,801.7 BEST-SELLING MIXED ASSET FUNDS IN 2012 FUND MIXED ASSET SECTOR SALES (€M) Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies Asset Allocation 5,489.7 Newton Real Return Asset Allocation 2,390.0 Baillie Gifford Diversified Growth Asset Allocation 2,255.2 Invesco Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund Asset Allocation 1,996.8 Baring Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund Asset Allocation 1,976.7 4 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS As this report offers a perspective on the state of the European funds industry, it is also important to be aware of a wider global perspective. Of course as US mutual funds account for roughly half of the global assets under management, any worldwide data will inevitably be skewed to activity in that market. By contrast, European funds account for around one third of global fund assets. This is useful context when considering fund flows in different parts of the world. Net sales of bond funds (excluding ETFs) in Europe totalled €217bn in 2012, nearly the same level as was seen in the US (€228.5bn). Furthermore, if one sets aside sales activity for money market funds and instead looks only at ‘long term’ funds, European products attracted €212.2bn, while US mutual funds saw inflows of €175.1bn. The European industry was helped here by the fact that investors only withdrew -€16.9bn from equities, whereas this totalled -€82.2bn in the US. When money market funds are included US mutual funds enjoyed net sales of €182.5bn in 2012, compared to €168.8bn for funds in Europe. Having said this, one cannot forget that a sizeable portion of European-domiciled UCITS’ inflows come from non-European investors. Lipper SalesWatch data (highlighted later in this report) indicates that among the largest cross-border groups, 26% of assets are sourced from investors based in countries outside Europe. FIGURE 1D INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Bond Equity Mixed M.Mkt Others 300,000 250,000 Net Sales (€m) 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 -50,000 -100,000 USA Europe + Intl Asia Pacific Latin America 5 MEA “Long-term fund sales in Europe were greater than in the US.” EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION SHIFT TO CROSS-BORDER It is important to paint in some of the detail in the European funds landscape, most noticeably by looking solely at funds sold cross-border. The importance of the cross-border dimension of the industry is such that these funds now account for 45% (€2,662.9bn) of European industry assets. This has risen from 21% of at the end of 2001. Cross-border funds attracted inflows of €220.7bn in 2012 (‘long term’ funds only) a sales total that is second only to the tally achieved in 2010 (€234.1bn) in our record books for the past decade. Interest in cross-border equity funds had already clearly picked up in the last four months and sales reached €23.3bn for the year, although appetite for bond funds still dominates, with their one year total reaching a whopping €182.1bn. The relative sales for cross-border funds (i.e. those funds generating more than 20% of their assets from a second market) compared to domestic funds is well illustrated in the chart below. The impact of the financial crisis should not be underestimated here, although the seeds had been sown for a divergence in fund flows as early as 2006. This then leads to the longer-term factors that have helped boost the cross-border industry, including both organic (for example providing products not available locally) and structural reasons (the decisions of some fund companies to re-domicile their funds to Luxembourg or Ireland in order to expand their investor base). Linked to the trend above, while it is significant that there was a net decline in the number of funds in the industry for second year in a row – truly a rare occurrence in historical terms - if local product providers come back to promoting their mutual fund businesses, it would come as no surprise that this trend will be reversed in 2013. FIGURE 1E INDUSTRY SHIFTS TO CROSS-BORDER Domestic Europe International 250,000 200,000 150,000 Net Sales (€m) 100,000 50,000 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 -200,000 -250,000 -300,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION WINNERS OVER THE PAST DECADE This annual review provides the opportunity to look back at longer-term trends in the industry. This year the average annual sales of fund management groups over the past decade have been analysed to get a better sense of who has been able to attract inflows throughout this period. Only groups active for at least five years have been included, with money market funds and ETFs excluded. Master Groups are ranked by their average (mean) annual net sales and the best sellers featured in the table below, although the median annual sales figure is also included to account for situations where an asset manager’s average figure may be weighted to a shorter time period. PIMCO tops this chart with average annual sales of €8.7bn, although Franklin Templeton and BlackRock only just miss the €8bn mark, as well as each achieving a median annual sales level in excess of €6bn. It is interesting that the 20 companies that feature in the best sellers list for the past decade are a real mix of business types, ranging across independent or ‘pure play’ asset managers, private banks, and the arms of banking groups. In this context it is worth mentioning the other groups with a median annual sales total above €2bn, but with a lower average (mean), are Amundi, Aviva, HSBC, KBC and Union. FIGURE 1F GROUP WINNERS OVER THE PAST DECADE 1 PIMCO US AVG ANNUAL SALES (€M) 8,668 2 Fr Templeton US 7,824 6,321 3 BlackRock US 7,797 6,049 4 AXA/AB FR 5,386 5,297 5 Prudential/M&G GB 4,420 3,496 6 Carmignac FR 4,053 2,072 7 Pictet CH 3,907 4,324 8 BNY Mellon US 3,367 3,802 9 Schroders GB 2,763 2,260 10 Cr Suisse CH 2,616 2,896 11 GAM Holding CH 2,476 2,459 12 Standard Life GB 2,475 2,829 13 RBC CA 2,378 1,857 14 Nordea SE 2,295 2,124 15 Vanguard US 2,091 2,358 16 JP Morgan US 2,072 4,687 RANK MASTER GROUP NAT MEDIAN ANNUAL SALES (€M) 3,945 17 Goldman Sachs US 1,859 2,938 18 Invesco US 1,855 881 19 Investec ZA 1,782 1,443 20 Lloyds/SWIP GB 1,751 1,855 7 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION THE COMING YEAR Monitoring fund flows each month, eyes will be looking keenly for signs of whether there really is a rotation back to equity funds. My expectation would be that the gradual, but uneven, improvement in equity fund sales will continue as 2013 progresses. But the sheer scale of flows into more adventurous bond fund sectors in recent years must mean that such a rotation is very unlikely to be swift. And with around 50% of emerging market debt funds in Europe having been launched in the past three years, certainly there are many asset managers who have been betting on continued growth in this sector. Where there has been equity appetite, it has been focused on global (often global equity income) and emerging market funds. For long-term investors, emerging markets are still hard to avoid in a well-diversified portfolio, but expectations for growth in these markets in 2013 must be lower. If equity markets continue in a generally upward trend, expectations must be that product development within the European industry will pick up. The pre-disposition of many fund management companies in Europe remains to launch new funds when the opportunity to do so arises. Staying with product development, 120 new ETFs were launched in Europe in 2012 (excluding ETPs). An article later in this report explores ETF developments more fully, although even continued strong growth in terms of assets does not mean that they will form significantly more than 10% of the industry soon. Having said this, when including index tracking mutual funds too, passive funds’ combined portion of the equity fund pool of assets now stands at a healthier 16%, albeit still notably lower than the equivalent figure for the US (32%) or Asia Pacific (30%). When considering fund sales, there must also be an awareness of the way funds are sold. The scale of the change brought about in the UK with the Retail Distribution Review (RDR) cannot be underestimated. This includes the banning of annual distribution fees (or trail commission) on new product sales, and negotiating fees directly between the investor and intermediary. At a European level, almost by accident similar steps are being taken in various different countries. In the Netherlands a ban is being introduced on the receipt or payment of inducements for acting as product provider, intermediary or adviser in relation to new sales of financial products. Meanwhile the full implications of the Swiss Federal Court ruling last year that retrocessions received by banks for asset management services belong to the client are still being digested. Such independent moves might almost overshadow MiFID II, which may yet ban independent advisers and portfolio managers from receiving commissions — although improved disclosure seems the more likely outcome. We hope that you find this report useful. As always, while these comments provide an overview of the key trends, the detailed numbers on activity in different markets and for different products can be found in the tables and charts that follow. Please feel free to get in touch with any feedback or questions! 8 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION EUROPEAN ASSETS FIGURE 2 EUROPEAN ASSETS BY INVESTMENT TYPE (%) Other 5% Mixed Assets 10% Property Commodity 1% 2% Equity 35% Money Market 18% FIGURE 3 EUROPEAN ASSETS BY MARKET AT DECEMBER 2012 (€BN) RANK FUND MARKET 1 2 3 4 6 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 19 21 22 23 24 26 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Bond 29% BOND COMMODITY EQUITY MIXED MM International United Kingdom France Germany Switzerland Italy Sweden Spain Belgium Denmark Norway Austria Netherlands Finland Poland Portugal Turkey Hungary Luxembourg Czech Republic Greece Slovakia Russia Romania Croatia Slovenia Liechtenstein Malta Estonia Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Ukraine 866.4 163.3 70.8 111.5 107.0 153.2 28.4 32.7 26.6 42.7 20.0 32.5 17.8 18.3 9.0 3.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 19.0 0.0 0.5 3.8 25.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 945.7 438.5 123.4 129.9 108.0 50.7 89.7 11.1 20.7 26.8 34.2 9.9 27.4 21.4 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.1 1.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 153.0 114.1 29.8 87.9 31.9 56.2 28.2 10.2 32.3 1.9 1.1 6.3 6.2 3.5 5.2 1.9 1.3 0.3 3.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 579.4 33.8 321.7 23.1 32.6 27.9 11.6 9.1 5.9 0.4 13.0 1.7 0.2 7.3 3.9 3.6 7.9 4.6 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.0 13.9 1.5 0.6 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TOTAL EUROPE 1,714.7 49.7 2,052.4 578.6 1,093.9 31.6 9 MM ENH PROPERTY OTHER TOTAL 5.0 19.7 0.0 81.8 4.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.4 7.4 46.6 39.8 5.4 12.6 9.6 51.1 19.9 0.4 0.5 3.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,662.9 777.8 606.5 479.2 315.0 303.2 167.6 118.4 105.6 72.2 68.7 57.2 52.7 52.1 23.7 14.7 11.6 8.7 6.9 6.8 5.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 123.8 285.9 5,930.6 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION EUROPEAN ASSET GROWTH FIGURE 4 EUROPEAN ASSET GROWTH BY MARKET IN 2012 (€BN) RANK FUND MARKET 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 BOND COMMODITY EQUITY MIXED MM International United Kingdom Switzerland France Germany Sweden Italy Norway Denmark Finland Poland Austria Netherlands Hungary Portugal Luxembourg Greece Romania Czech Republic Croatia Slovakia Russia Liechtenstein Slovenia Malta Latvia Estonia Bulgaria Lithuania Ukraine Turkey Belgium Spain 249.3 24.8 9.6 11.7 14.8 3.3 25.4 6.7 3.3 3.1 4.8 3.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.1 -3.5 0.9 0.0 2.8 -0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 134.7 62.9 19.4 4.7 9.0 14.4 0.3 5.4 4.8 4.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.5 24.9 23.5 1.1 -0.4 8.9 3.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.8 -0.8 -38.0 2.9 -0.8 16.5 -2.5 0.0 -11.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.5 1.7 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -6.9 0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.1 2.6 -1.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TOTAL EUROPE 365.0 2.6 267.6 67.4 -40.5 1.7 10 MM ENH PROPERTY OTHER TOTAL 0.3 -0.6 0.9 0.0 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -3.6 0.6 0.8 -4.0 -2.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -5.4 -1.8 367.6 114.2 33.9 30.9 23.2 22.2 15.5 12.3 8.2 6.9 5.6 4.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.6 -5.5 -1.5 -18.3 0.6 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION EUROPEAN SALES FIGURE 5 EUROPEAN MARKET RANKING BY ESTIMATED NET SALES IN 2012 (€M) RANK FUND MARKET 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 BOND COMMODITY EQUITY MIXED MM International Switzerland Norway Sweden France United Kingdom Poland Finland Denmark Portugal Luxembourg Czech Republic Romania Austria Hungary Croatia Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Ukraine Slovakia Malta Estonia Liechtenstein Slovenia Russia Greece Turkey Germany Netherlands Italy Belgium Spain 182,123.6 5,142.9 5,434.0 1,640.4 6,050.1 2,189.0 3,664.1 1,089.2 -92.5 130.9 -65.8 527.0 267.2 728.4 143.6 -39.9 2.6 5.9 2.8 0.0 6.6 14.1 2.4 33.5 2.3 246.5 -210.8 562.3 8,937.2 -826.0 8,335.8 2,105.3 -2,920.1 1,618.1 1,891.4 40.2 76.3 -202.1 -16.4 0.6 -2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.0 -5.8 18.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 29.1 -27.7 -197.8 -454.6 -1.9 -11.9 -2.0 -8.6 23,256.8 6,078.2 729.4 1,684.4 -12,914.7 -14,520.8 -473.3 1,088.4 1,378.9 -343.7 248.0 140.0 -9.9 8.6 -63.5 -46.2 2.2 0.7 -3.1 -0.2 -13.5 -0.5 -34.3 -56.7 -32.4 -287.7 -67.4 -47.1 -7,510.5 -1,727.1 -4,860.3 221.3 -597.2 17,437.0 -677.1 118.3 1,434.1 -2,476.8 12,505.6 -829.6 30.6 43.3 -420.8 455.2 31.8 0.8 -65.3 13.3 -40.6 1.6 -0.3 -1.1 -4.8 -40.6 -3.3 0.1 -3.9 -55.7 -121.0 -6.3 248.4 4,232.7 -575.5 -3,374.7 1,259.1 -1,271.4 TOTAL EUROPE 225,232.4 2,752.8 -8,773.1 27,843.3 11 MM ENH PROPERTY OTHER TOTAL -38,458.2 -788.8 -1,074.1 -763.6 13,458.7 2,121.8 -780.3 -1,066.8 -250.3 1,597.8 -118.7 -336.6 89.2 -429.1 9.5 224.3 -4.0 -3.8 0.0 -0.4 -67.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 -3.1 7.1 216.9 -1,320.2 -2,608.5 -20.7 -5,612.3 -6,775.7 -1,716.4 -1,114.6 102.9 0.0 0.0 2,172.5 -40.6 21.6 295.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.7 0.1 -19.6 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -18.0 -14.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -3.7 0.0 -1,293.7 0.0 879.8 -84.9 16.3 296.9 538.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -494.2 0.0 12.8 0.0 -158.3 0.0 7.7 0.0 376.1 -54.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 146.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,379.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -41.6 -2,936.2 474.2 158.4 405.5 -2,320.8 253.5 -20.9 -133.1 85.9 -28.8 0.0 95.3 -2.5 -368.7 38.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -19.7 -13.2 0.0 -2.8 -0.2 0.0 -67.6 -4.6 -1,035.3 -1,386.1 -641.7 -3,614.6 -3,746.5 182,223.4 12,762.6 5,406.1 4,477.2 3,766.9 1,997.8 1,582.2 1,314.0 1,165.3 777.2 518.6 469.6 344.9 224.5 109.9 97.6 2.8 2.5 -4.4 -5.6 -6.5 -12.9 -31.8 -33.5 -89.1 -126.1 -166.7 -758.9 -3,112.0 -4,537.3 -5,285.2 -6,891.5 -10,285.5 -44,469.8 892.7 -2,749.5 -14,832.3 185,896.4 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION TIME FOR A CRUYFF TURN IN THE FUNDS INDUSTRY? By Ed Moisson | 5 January 2013 A version of this article originally appeared in The Financial Times (FTfm) on 14 January 2013. When first executed on the world stage, the Cruyff Turn was surely one of the iconic moments in football, with an unexpected change of direction bamboozling opponents. Recently some fund companies in Europe have been contemplating whether they have the nerve and the skill to make a similarly dramatic change. For the funds industry this is the shift from being perceived as short-term salesmen to longer-term stewards of their investors’ assets, which both the Kay Review of UK Equity Markets and the 300 Club’s recent report addressed. This article will question the notion that asset managers across the board can build businesses with a limited range of funds in a certain niche and for fund performance to attract ‘buy and hold’ investors steadily over time. If possible, such a change could be good for both clients and asset managers alike. But I can’t help thinking that expectations of such a change are a bit like the newspaper headlines that proclaimed the death of catenaccio (Italian defensivestyle football) after the stylish exponents of totaalvoetbal (total football), Ajax, beat Internazionale in the 1972 European Cup final. Sadly history shows that, despite Dutch teams’ other considerable successes, the Netherlands lost the 1974 World Cup final to West Germany. And it is this result that a fund company must consider before overhauling its business strategy and product range. What looks good for one group doesn’t always work for another. This is not to say that asset managers should not consider their clients’ interests – they are duty-bound to do so – and I have spent many years saying that more companies should spend greater efforts minimising fund costs that their retail investors bear. But too often observers assume that what is logical in the industry will naturally happen. This is rarely the case. For example, criticisms of the number of funds in Europe (currently around 35,000) often focus on the vast arrays of funds that the largest groups manage. Yet hundreds of groups in Europe have mutual fund assets below €100 million. Where is the business case – not least for those asset managers with shareholders – for the former to slash hundreds of funds (rather than just trimming a few, which we have seen of late)? The risk is clear of losing either current or future clients as investor preferences change. So a big group with equivalent distribution ambitions, will almost inevitably expand its fund range as investor demands evolve but also withstand larger outflows when an asset class is out of favour (not necessarily because of under-performance). A small manager with more limited distribution may be able to manage shorterterm changes in investor appetite. But this underlines that it would be a hard task to force many of the long list of small groups to shut up shop for an apparent ‘greater good’ of increasing the industry’s average fund size. 12 Besides, I am bound to wonder whether a larger average fund size really would translate generally into economies of scale being passed on to retail investors across Europe. If the industry was serious about this, then there are many large funds or fund companies that could have grasped this issue already. There is a crucial accompanying issue that cannot be ignored: the frequency with which European fund selectors buy and sell active fund managers. Since 2005 the annual redemption rate for cross-border funds in Europe ranges between 48% and 97% (source: Lipper). But in the US the range was between 24% and 36% (source: ICI). Regardless of one’s views on such buying and selling activity, it is a reality to which pan-European asset managers cannot be blind. In this environment it is little wonder that launching new funds is such a feature of the industry. A recent slowing of such activity has not changed the fundamental predisposition to develop new products. After all, if no new funds had been launched over the past decade then industry assets would have stayed at €3 trillion. Instead €2.8 trillion of the industry’s current €5.8 trillion sit in funds launched in the intervening years. Very few football teams have the players to enable them to play stylish ‘total football’ and expect to win regularly, and perhaps even fewer fund managers would expect to find a particular strategy or security selections in favour with investors and fund selectors in all market conditions. Or as Johan Cruyff himself put it, “Simple football is the best, but it is very difficult to play simple football.” EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION ALL SECTOR RANKING FIGURE 6 TOP 25 SECTORS IN EUROPE (€M) RANK RANK '11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 40 20 2 6 33 26 37 3 9 7 8 10 213 1 190 21 19 126 18 42 28 11 54 32 155 FIGURE 7 FUND SECTOR ENS '12 Bonds Emerging Markets Bonds USD Corp. High Yield Asset Allocation Bonds Global Corporates Bonds USD Equities Emerging Markets Bonds Global High Yield Bonds Global Currencies Target Maturity Euroland Equities Global Bonds Emerging Markets - Local Currency Bonds Flexible Bonds EUR Corp. Inv. Grade Money Market GBP Fund of Funds Bonds Bonds USD Short-Term Bonds Speciality Bonds EUR Corp. High Yield Fund of Funds Asset Allocation Bonds NOK Bonds Asian Currencies Bonds Inflation Linked Bonds PLN Bonds USD Corp. Inv. Grade Bonds CHF REST TOTAL 27,610.0 24,722.3 24,143.3 20,942.3 19,858.4 17,956.4 17,729.0 17,042.8 16,124.7 13,441.2 13,296.5 12,902.2 12,776.0 8,813.3 7,176.9 6,820.8 6,012.3 4,636.7 4,379.8 4,123.4 3,357.5 3,314.3 3,280.2 3,158.8 2,992.1 -110,176.5 186,434.8 TOP AND BOTTOM FIVE SECTORS BY SALES 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 -40,000 -50,000 Bnd Em Mkt Bnd USD Corp HY Asset Alloc Bnd Gl Corp Bnd USD Bnd Eur Guarant'd FF Hdge Sh-T 13 Eq UK MM Euro EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION FUNDS OF FUNDS FIGURE 8A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FUND MARKET DEC-12 France United Kingdom Germany International Italy Spain Sweden Belgium Switzerland Austria REST TOTAL 69.8 59.9 40.2 36.8 28.6 11.0 10.9 8.7 8.4 8.3 13.4 296.1 FIGURE 9A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EXTERNAL FUNDS OF FUNDS ASSETS (€BN) EXTERNAL FUNDS OF FUNDS SALES (€M) FIGURE 8B MARKET SHARE OF EXTERNAL FOF ASSETS Rest 21% France 23% Italy 10% United Kingdom 20% International 12% Germany 14% FIGURE 9B FUND MARKET 2012 5,000 United Kingdom International Sweden Italy France Finland Belgium Switzerland Norway Slovenia REST TOTAL 4510.7 3309.6 1836.9 944.8 651.9 509.4 445.9 255.5 211.4 130.2 -4389.1 8417.2 4,000 MARKET SHARE OF EXTERNAL FOF SALES (€M) 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 UK 14 International Sweden Italy France Rest EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION FUNDS OF FUNDS’ HOLDINGS FIGURE 10 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FIGURE 11 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MOST POPULAR GROUPS FOR THIRD PARTY FUNDS OF FUNDS PROMOTER (ex-ETFs) NO. FOFS INVESTING ASSETS FROM FoFs (€M) 1,277 1,104 994 872 809 785 739 729 699 691 4,462.0 3,046.8 2,398.1 2,461.8 2,189.8 3,713.4 1,906.9 3,379.4 1,700.5 4,799.6 BlackRock JPMorgan Schroders Fidelity Franklin Templeton DWS Aberdeen Invesco BNP Paribas M&G MOST POPULAR INVESTMENTS FOR THIRD PARTY FUNDS OF FUNDS FUND (EX-ETFS) NO. FoFs INVESTING ASSETS FROM FoFs (€M) 171 171 152 151 135 127 124 122 114 108 831.8 510.9 388.5 739.9 356.1 250.4 305.3 132.3 278.5 407.6 M&G Optimal Income Aberdeen Global - Emg Mkts Equity Templeton Asian Growth First State Asia Pacific Leaders Alken Fund - European Opportunities Templeton Global Bond Morgan Stanley Global Brands BlackRock GF World Gold Fidelity FAST Europe Allianz Europe Equity Growth Note: Based on analysis of holdings of 2,000 European-domiciled third party funds of funds 15 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION FUNDS WILL FIND A CHILL WIND IN THE WILLOWS By Ed Moisson | 5 October 2012 This article was originally published by Reuters – http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/ “Asset managers are emerging from their comfortable burrow to face a battery of lights.” Sheila Nicoll, Director of Conduct Policy at Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA), had perhaps been reading Kenneth Grahame before her recent speech, and her words are likely to have sent a chilly wind through the willows of the UK funds industry. The warning “poop poop” being sounded by the regulator has been getting louder and louder. Indeed the FSA may even be traveling faster than Labour Party leader Ed Miliband, who has recently suggested that he would impose a 1 percent cap on pension charges. It was not so long ago that the FSA took a very different approach and removed its rules on excessive charges on the basis that “there may be no appropriate benchmarks” to determine this. They went so far as to say that “we do not act as a price regulator, and we do not consider it appropriate for us to take such a role.” At the time, this move seemed all the more surprising as it was this very regulation that the FSA had referred to when trying to allay the Financial Services Consumer Panel’s fear that in allowing performance fees for open-ended funds, there was no requirement to cap such fees. The more recent change in the FSA’s thinking was shown in its paper on product intervention, stating its intention to scrutinise both performance fees and the high charges for some index-tracking funds. The FSA did not shrink from suggesting that “it is possible to envisage the role of the regulator in imposing limits on price or excessive charges to remedy competition problems.” FIDUCIARY DUTY The loudest voice in the woodland is surely that of Martin Wheatley, the future head of the FSA’s successor, the FCA, who has questioned how an investor can tell whether charges are fair. He has promoted the idea of fund managers “adopting a fiduciary duty to their investors, something that would offer an extra level of commitment beyond simply the letter of our rules.” While the Investment Management Association (IMA) is looking again at this issue, the funds association initially responded to Wheatley’s speech by questioning the “legal underpinning” of the term fiduciary duty. Having said this, the IMA has not stuck its head in the sand, publicly recognising such obligations earlier this year. It also detailed the governance arrangements of funds back in 2005 in a paper which gave a succinct definition of ‘fiduciary duty’: “Both the Manager and the Depositary have an obligation to act at all times in the best interests of Investors, disregarding their own interests where they conflict with those of the investor.” But the IMA made it clear that this duty stopped short of the depositary taking a view on “commercial matters” such as the level of the manager’s fee. The Wild Wood that is the US funds industry casts a shadow over the discussion. First, the US regulator models itself as “The Investor’s Advocate” – an approach more akin to the new FCA – and second, it holds that fiduciary duty does relate to the oversight of funds’ fees. Here, section 15c of the 1940 Investment Company Act comes to light, whereby fund boards (a majority of which are independent) must monitor their funds’ fee and expense levels in relation to the rest of the industry. This need not create a decisive argument that fund boards are a panacea, but it does demonstrate a different and viable approach to overseeing fees. 16 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION One way this scrutiny manifests itself is in passing on economies of scale achieved to investors, as discussed in a previous column. If the UK and European industries are to demonstrate that they are giving investors as fair a deal as possible, then this nettle needs to be grasped. Simply capping fee levels at a fixed percentage will not suffice. WEASELS OR BADGERS? If funds can justify the fees they charge by their performance – as many do – then some of the critical voices may be quieter, or find a less receptive audience. But demonstrating this over both the long term (as mutual funds are designed to do) and the shorter term (say up to 3 years, which has a more significant impact on fund sales) remains the challenge for asset managers. Some consumers may well see fund managers as weasels, rather than an array of friendly moles, wise badgers or shrewd water rats. But such a perception crucially highlights the problem of exactly how consumers think of fund fees: some see them simply as the fuel for a lifestyle of fast cars and mansions out of step with the rest of society, while others will look at fees from an investor’s viewpoint, as a downward ‘drag’ on returns. Despite this, retail investors have traditionally given more weight to funds’ past performance then their ability to keep costs low. This leads on to a question that the FSA’s Wheatley posed: “we might ask ourselves whether it is a problem that the industry appears to compete predominantly on the aspirational aspect of its service… when it is the one thing that cannot be compared and measured by potential investors.” The counter-argument to this question must be that as long as investors, or their advisers, place a greater emphasis on a manager’s track record than on charges, then it remains a very tough proposition to grow a retail business based on what investor behaviour should be (depending on your perspective), rather than one based on what it is. Perhaps this is the equivalent of traveling quietly in a horse-drawn caravan while others race by in motor cars. The impact of such attitudes is that the average annual charges at mutual funds in the UK have slowly been rising. Part of the reason for this may be laid at the feet of independent financial advisers (IFAs) and platforms, in the form of trail commission, and it is this that will be radically changed with the Retail Distribution Review (RDR) next year as customers will have to agree separately the fees they pay for advice. So are managers really emerging from their burrows? Surely all fund companies have been buffeted by the financial crisis and witnessed the march towards greater regulation, not only the RDR in the UK, but also laws from across the Channel and the Atlantic. As for investors, there is greater cost disclosure underway, although this need not mean they will pay less overall. Regulatory changes have already resulted in there being far more choice for cost-sensitive investors, who can certainly pay much lower fees unless they believe a manager is really worth it. Or as Kenneth Grahame put it, “good, bad, and indifferent – I name no names – it takes all sorts to make a world.” 17 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PAN-EUROPEAN MASTER GROUPS ASSETS FIGURE 12 TOP 25 EUROPEAN MASTER GROUPS BY ASSETS IN 2012 (€M) RANK RANK'11 MASTER GROUP NATIONALITY # FUNDS DEC-12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1 3 4 2 5 6 7 15 12 26 11 10 8 9 13 21 17 19 18 16 22 14 20 23 25 BlackRock Amundi Deutsche/DWS JP Morgan BNP Paribas UBS Fr Templeton AXA/AB Lloyds/SWIP PIMCO Fidelity BNY Mellon Cr Suisse Intesa SP Union Prudential/M&G HSBC Schroders Deka Goldman Sachs Pictet Natixis Pioneer Allianz GI Invesco TOTAL TOP 25 REST TOTAL US FR DE US FR CH US FR GB US US US CH IT DE GB GB GB DE US CH FR IT DE US 440 760 956 259 1,333 643 108 416 230 62 210 190 473 473 285 121 484 176 372 115 230 315 439 513 152 9,755 329,928.6 218,925.0 197,626.5 187,378.0 166,094.5 154,755.0 118,666.4 117,816.4 115,692.6 107,968.4 106,736.2 106,419.6 104,549.2 103,550.3 99,127.0 89,504.7 87,809.9 87,366.9 86,234.1 83,795.3 81,411.1 80,134.3 80,024.3 77,526.7 77,475.6 3,066,516.6 2,864,107.3 5,930,623.9 FIGURE 13 MARKET SHARE OF LEADING MASTER GROUPS Top 5 19% Rest 20% Next 25 8% Next 10 19% Next 20 14% Next 15 20% 18 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PAN-EUROPEAN MASTER GROUPS SALES FIGURE 14 TOP EUROPEAN MASTER GROUPS BY SALES IN 2012 ( €M) RANK RANK '11 MASTER GROUP NATIONALITY # FUNDS 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 4 1,768 1,773 1 1,652 14 10 1,723 6 1,762 11 1,749 1,765 12 2 1,710 1,693 26 92 75 72 1,682 17 22 32 PIMCO AXA/AB Amundi BlackRock Nordea Prudential/M&G Morgan Stanley Aberdeen Standard Life Cr Mutuel Pictet RBC Carmignac Muzinich BNY Mellon GAM Holding Vanguard MMC/Mercer Vontobel MFS Lombard Odier Baring Stone Harbor Sv Handelsbanken Baillie Gifford TOTAL TOP 25 REST TOTAL US FR FR US SE GB US GB GB FR CH CA FR US US CH US US CH US CH US US SE GB 62 414 758 437 278 121 86 143 73 334 229 45 15 10 189 264 41 38 71 35 125 52 12 95 30 3,957 28,538 32,495 34,827.8 24,003.6 22,592.7 19,919.0 9,932.6 9,424.8 8,455.8 7,677.8 6,645.2 6,068.0 4,953.4 4,555.5 4,488.1 4,449.4 3,214.6 3,182.7 3,171.8 3,161.3 3,149.9 3,147.2 3,112.8 2,990.7 2,870.4 2,837.2 2,575.9 201,408.1 -15,511.6 185,896.4 FIGURE 15 MARKET SHARE OF LEADING MASTER GROUPS BY SALES 16-25 15% Top 5 55% 6-15 30% 19 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PAN-EUROPEAN FUND LEADERS ASSETS FIGURE 16 TOP 25 FUNDS BY ASSETS (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 RANK '11 MASTER GROUP 1 2 4 3 6 9 14 5 26 10 8 66 7 310 22 11 43 12 16 13 17 134 34 15 20 Fr Templeton Carmignac PIMCO Fr Templeton AXA/AB Standard Life PIMCO Invesco Prudential/M&G BlackRock Fr Templeton AXA/AB Deka Lloyds/SWIP Aberdeen Invesco AXA/AB BlackRock Swisscanto Commerzbank Prudential/M&G PIMCO Pictet BlackRock RBC NAT FUND NAME US FR US US FR GB US US GB US US FR DE GB GB US FR US CH DE GB US CH US CA Templeton Global Bond Fund Carmignac Patrimoine PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond Fund Templeton Global Total Return Fund AllianceBernstein - Global High Yield Portfolio Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies PIMCO GIS Global Investment Grade Credit Invesco Perpetual High Income M&G Optimal Income Fund iShares DAX® (DE) Templeton Asian Growth Fund AllianceBernstein - American Income Portfolio Deka-ImmobilienEuropa Scottish Widows UK All Share Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Equity Fund Invesco Perpetual Income AXA IM FIIS - US Short Duration High Yield BlackRock Global Funds - Global Allocation Fund ZKB Gold ETF hausInvest M&G Recovery Fund PIMCO GIS Diversified Income Fund Pictet - Emerging Local Currency Debt BlackRock Global Funds - World Mining Fund BlueBay - Investment Grade Bond Fund TOTAL TOP 25 REST TOTAL Note: Excludes money market funds. FIGURE 17 MARKET SHARE OF LARGEST 25 FUNDS Top 25 8% Rest 92% 20 DOMICILE TYPE DEC-12 LU FR IE LU LU UK IE UK UK DE LU LU DE UK LU UK LU LU CH DE UK IE LU LU LU Bnd Mix Bnd Bnd Bnd Mix Bnd Eq Bnd Eq Eq Bnd Prop Eq Eq Eq Bnd Mix Cmdty Prop Eq Bnd Bnd Eq Bnd 34,251.6 28,013.9 25,831.6 22,255.8 18,757.3 18,282.6 17,492.1 14,630.2 13,768.4 13,539.5 13,318.1 13,099.3 11,983.8 11,882.5 11,780.5 11,171.7 10,137.6 9,823.1 9,621.0 9,235.2 9,096.3 8,968.7 8,964.0 8,886.3 8,817.5 363,608.5 4,473,108.4 4,836,716.9 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PAN-EUROPEAN FUND LEADERS SALES FIGURE 18 TOP 25 FUNDS BY ESTIMATED NET SALES (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 RANK '11 MASTER GROUP 276 29,993 9 32 6 5 31,338 25 1,794 11 14 29 2 13 22 10 15 93 34 687 131 23 19 932 31,340 AXA/AB PIMCO PIMCO PIMCO Standard Life Prudential/M&G AXA/AB AXA/AB Allianz GI PIMCO Muzinich Prudential/M&G Fr Templeton Morgan Stanley BlackRock BNY Mellon Aberdeen Baillie Gifford Neuberger Berman AXA/AB Invesco Stone Harbor Baring Pictet Carmignac NAT FUND NAME FR US US US GB GB FR FR DE US US GB US US US US GB GB US FR US US US CH FR AllianceBernstein - American Income Portfolio PIMCO GIS Total Return Bond Fund PIMCO GIS Global Investment Grade Credit PIMCO GIS Diversified Income Fund Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies M&G Optimal Income Fund AXA IM FIIS - US Short Duration High Yield AllianceBernstein - Global High Yield Portfolio Allianz Global Investors Fund - Allianz US High Yield PIMCO GIS Unconstrained Bond Fund Muzinich Short Duration High Yield M&G Global Dividend Templeton Global Total Return Fund Morgan Stanley-Global Brands BlackRock Index Selection - Emerging Markets Index Fund Newton Real Return Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Equity Fund Baillie Gifford Diversified Growth Neuberger Berman High Yield Bond Fund AXA World Funds - US High Yield Bonds Invesco Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund Stone Harbor Emerging Market Local Currency Fund Baring Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund Pictet - Global Emerging Debt Carmignac Patrimoine TOTAL TOP 25 REST TOTAL Note: Excludes money market funds and funds of funds. FIGURE 19 MARKET SHARE OF BEST-SELLING 25 FUNDS Top 25 38% Rest 62% 21 DOMICILE TYPE 2012 LU IE IE IE UK UK LU LU LU IE IE UK LU LU IE UK LU UK IE LU LU IE IE LU FR Bnd Bnd Bnd Bnd Mix Bnd Bnd Bnd Bnd Bnd Bnd Eq Bnd Eq Eq Mix Eq Mix Bnd Bnd Mix Bnd Mix Bnd Mix 8,234.5 8,061.6 5,865.0 5,582.5 5,489.7 5,138.3 4,550.1 3,796.0 3,716.3 2,916.2 2,779.5 2,720.9 2,576.7 2,437.8 2,401.9 2,390.0 2,352.0 2,255.2 2,138.9 2,027.9 1,996.8 1,976.8 1,976.7 1,974.1 1,970.7 87,326.1 143,040.2 230,366.3 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PERFORMANCE FEES AND APOLOGIES By Ed Moisson | 24 September 2012 This article was originally published by Reuters – http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/ As Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister is finding, apologising when you have let people down is no simple matter. The worry for some absolute return funds must be that they are heading for a similar fate to Nick Clegg (even if they’re unlikely to suffer the same level of autotuned mockery). One of the reasons for the rise of absolute return funds – those seeking to deliver positive returns in all market conditions – is that the industry has been trying to deal directly with client expectations left shattered by the financial crisis. On top of their investment objectives, one way that absolute return funds say they have tried to better align investor and fund manager interests is by the use of performance-related fees, paid as a proportion of a fund’s returns, not a fixed percentage of assets (although pretty much all funds will charge the latter fee too). But do performance fees actually help to deliver more consistently positive returns, and do they do this for lower levels of risk? Or, much like making ill-advised promises about tuition fees, do performance fees actually make it more likely that a fund manager will have to say sorry down the line? In the IMA’s Absolute Return sector (established in April 2008), 63.5 percent of funds have a performance fee structure in place. That contrasts with about 3 percent for all UK-domiciled funds. Because funds in this sector are managed with the aim of delivering above zero returns on a rolling 12 month basis, it is this that has been used to compare their performance. Each fund’s performance was calculated at monthly intervals, looking at a 12-month period for each interval (up to the end of July 2012. As a result, the data does not reflect a simple snapshot of how absolute return funds have performed over any one period, but instead gives a more detailed view of their ongoing performance since the inception of the sector (or since a fund’s launch, if later). Using this measure, we can show that funds with performance fees delivered positive returns 62.1 percent of the time, while their peers with a more traditional fee structure managed it 63.5 percent of the time. RETURNS AND RISK In this analysis, funds are put into three groups: those achieving positive 12-month rolling returns less than 50 percent of the time, those achieving this between 50 percent and 74 percent of the time, and those funds achieving this goal at least 75 percent of the time. The funds are also split between those with and without performance fees. This shows that funds with performance fees are relatively evenly split between the three performance ‘bands’, while there are more significant differences for those with a traditional fee structure. While the latter have fewer ‘poor’ funds (21 percent versus 31 percent among funds with performance fees) and more ‘average’ funds (46 percent versus 33 percent), the ‘good’ funds make up a fairly similar proportion of both totals (33 percent compared to 36 percent). A different approach has to be taken when looking at risk. Here two universes of absolute return funds were assessed: funds with at least 3 years history (37 funds, of which 20 have a performance fee), as well as a larger universe of funds with just 1 year history (69 funds, of which 45 have a performance fee). Both volatility of returns, expressed as standard deviation, and maximum drawdown were calculated. To gain a further level of granularity in this comparison, both the mean and the median was calculated to present average historical risk measures for these funds. 22 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION The findings seem to be fairly clear: in seven of the eight comparisons made, funds with performance fees look to have been more ‘risky’, on average, than those funds without performance fees. But further exploration of historical risk is warranted. Plotting standard deviation and maximum drawdown for each fund over 3 years, and distinguishing between funds with and without performance fees, reveals that 8 funds with performance fees are out of line from the other 29 funds (of which 12 have a performance fee) in their historical ‘riskiness’ (as measured by maximum drawdown and standard deviation). Quite simply, those funds with historical characteristics that suggest greater risk all have performance fees. This also seems to support the point that a variety of strategies – with different risk profiles – are employed by funds seeking absolute returns. Absolute return investors in the UK are not being forced to invest in funds with performance fees, both because a sizeable proportion (36.5 percent) of these funds maintain a more conventional fee structure, and because funds with performance fees have not demonstrated, on average, that they deliver better returns or lower risk. Hugh Hendry, founding partner of Eclectica Asset Management, has gone so far as saying that “It is outrageous that managers with no long/short experience have the audacity to charge a performance fee.” Clegg’s contrition was for making a pledge in the first place, not for breaking it. And with the sustained scepticism of financial advisers in mind, it’s no surprise that the number of UK fund launches with performance fees attached has declined. It’s certainly difficult to make out a clear case for the better client/manager alignment that performance fees were designed to bring for absolute return funds. Some will plough on; some might make a good fist of it. But what odds on the poor performers plucking up the courage to apologise? 23 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES ABSOLUTE/TOTAL RETURN FIGURE 20 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY ASSETS (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MASTER GROUP NAT DEC-11 DEC-12 Standard Life BNY Mellon GAM Holding JP Morgan PIMCO Baring Amundi Schroders Intesa SP Ruffer TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL GB US CH US US US FR GB IT GB 12,899.3 9,599.6 9,995.5 8,161.4 4,514.1 4,907.9 7,260.9 7,910.4 3,899.2 4,990.4 74,138.8 154,856.5 21,853.8 13,680.1 13,368.0 7,953.1 7,670.3 7,452.3 7,106.3 6,065.3 5,816.1 5,558.9 96,524.1 182,873.5 FIGURE 21 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY SALES (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MASTER GROUP NAT 2012 Standard Life BNY Mellon PIMCO GAM Holding Intesa SP Baring Volksbanken Raiffeisenbanken Wellington Bantleon Assenagon TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL GB US US CH IT US DE US CH LU 7,273.5 3,318.3 2,921.8 2,717.0 2,270.3 2,114.1 1,848.5 1,528.8 1,341.5 1,082.9 26,416.6 21,789.4 24 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES ABSOLUTE/TOTAL RETURN FIGURE 22 TOP & BOTTOM THREE SECTORS BY SALES (€M) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 Asset Alloc Bnd Flex Bnd Speciality Mix Cons ST Dynam Bnd Em Mkt FIGURE 23 TOP 10 FUNDS BY SALES (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MASTER GROUP FUND NAME 2012 Standard Life PIMCO BNY Mellon Baring Volksbanken Raiffeisenbanken Standard Life GAM Holding Wellington Amundi GAM Holding TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies PIMCO GIS Unconstrained Bond Fund Newton Real Return Baring Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund Flossbach von Storch SICAV - Multiple Opportunities Standard Life Investments Global - Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund Julius Baer Multibond - Absolute Return Bond Fund Plus Wellington Management Portfolios II - Global Total Return Portfolio Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility Euro Equities Julius Baer Multibond - Absolute Return Bond Fund 25 5,489.7 2,916.2 2,390.0 1,976.7 1,812.4 1,725.9 1,094.5 1,047.3 946.9 882.8 20,282.4 21,789.4 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION GETTING SERIOUS ABOUT GIVING By Ed Moisson | 9 July 2012 This article was originally published by Reuters – http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/ “Wouldn’t you rather your donations achieve a lot rather than a little? Then you’ll need to get serious and proactive. If you do it wrong, you can easily waste your entire donation.” Caroline Fiennes is not one to pull her punches when talking about charitable giving, but the more I talk to her, or read her new book – ‘It Ain’t What You Give It’s The Way That You Give It’ – the more it becomes apparent that her philosophy is not all that different from that of a professional fund manager. No self-respecting fund manager would invest in a company just because they were asked to. A fund manager will choose to invest (or disinvest) because they believe it will help their fund perform well and that the investment fits within their investment objectives. Fiennes, who advises companies and individuals on their giving, advocates a similar approach for any donor: be clear about your objective and find organisations that have done a good job of achieving this, not just the ones that market themselves well. This is just the start. As James Caan, entrepreneur and philanthropist, puts it, “Finding, investing and supporting good businesses is hard, but identifying, donating and supporting great charities poses the same challenges.” This is all the more apt as Caan has also been the chairman of a fund manager, Insynergy Investment Management. This is not to say that giving and fund management are natural bedfellows. A collaborative exercise between several fund groups created the Invest & Give fund, but sadly it did not generate significant investment and was eventually closed. Lipper data reveals that socially responsible investment (SRI) equity mutual funds in Europe have healthy assets of just over 50 billion euros, but this still accounts for less than 3 percent of the equity fund universe (1.8 trillion euros). Yet investing and giving can learn from each other, despite their differences. Those fund managers who avoid hugging an index are clearly pro-active in their selection of investments. By contrast, charitable donations are typically made reactively. At a simple level, most people are more likely to give to those charities that shake a tin on the high street rather than tracking down a cause they really care about. While relevant for anyone, for those giving more sizeable sums it is all the more important to make a pro-active decision. “Start with your heart and then engage your mind,” as Rebecca Eastmond, Head of Philanthropic Services at JPMorgan Private Bank puts it. This emotional dimension is crucial: which cause really matters to you and what sort of impact are you hoping to have? DONKEY DONATIONS Fiennes urges potential donors not to follow the herd – a classic dictum for many fund managers. For example, she cites data which show the Donkey Sanctuary spending over 2,000 pounds a year per donkey, while mental health charities in the UK only get 714 pounds for each of their beneficiaries. Is this really where our priorities lie? Having decided where you want your money to go, you should then decide how you want to give, or in other words, the type of change you hope to make. Fiennes illustrates the dilemma by citing the work of New Philanthropy Capital, which attempts to give potential donors a better understanding of the difficult relationship between identifiable, and satisfying, outcomes for individuals (or donkeys) and the more nebulous pursuit of a wider, and potentially more useful, impact on society. The fact is, one tends to diminish the likelihood of the other. 26 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION Listening to this being explained, I could not help but hear echoes of different fund managers’ relative emphasis on ‘top down’ versus ‘bottom up’ investment (i.e. macro vs stock-picking) and the consequences of getting these calls right – or wrong. It is also apparent that ‘bad’ giving can be equally wasteful. Such echoes could also be heard when discussing investment objectives. Fiennes’ advice is to give with no strings attached, echoing the unconstrained approach which has come increasingly to the fore in the investment industry, moving beyond hedge funds to the likes of PIMCO, for example. She also warns against making too many demands of charities, with comments that will chime with fund companies sometimes weighed down by a constant cycle of completing requests for proposals (RFPs). Having to complete a bespoke assessment of their activity for each major donor can be a massive burden for charities. As Fiennes says: “For sure, a charity should report on its overall effectiveness, but don’t make it write a long report just for you.” COST COMPARISON Parallels are not always appropriate. The relative importance of costs remains hotly debated in the funds industry, where they are inevitably a drag on returns to investors. But for charities the evidence seems to be pretty clear that administration costs are no indicator of whether a charity is any good. GiveWell, an independent charity evaluator, has gone so far as to describe costs (specifically the overhead ratio) as “the worst way to pick a charity”. Picking a charity is no easy task. If you thought it was difficult to decide which mutual fund to invest in (there are about 2,500 domiciled in the UK and 35,000 across Europe), spare a thought for the charities vying for your attention – there are more than 160,000 of them, according to the Charity Commission. Fiennes makes me squirm in my chair for suggesting that mydonations aren’t big enough to make much of a difference, pointing out that over half of personal giving in the UK is by people giving less than 100 pounds a month. She argues against diversification, suggesting that I give more to fewer charities (akin to those ‘high conviction’ portfolio managers that hold a concentrated portfolio of stocks), clubbing together with others (very apt for ‘mutual’ fund comparisons), or giving something other than hard cash. On this last aspect, such views have recently been given shape with Miller Philanthropy’s launch of the Goodwill Exchange, a not-for-profit forum where professionals can register their area of expertise to provide small charities support on a project basis. Founder Gina Miller urges people to “give smarter, not just give more” with the specific aim of helping the smallest charities struggling to attract the money they need to undertake their work. In turn, spending more time on raising money can only undermine their efforts to concentrate on their charitable works. Of course big donors can make a big difference – particularly if they give smarter. Fiennes cites the example of the Shell Foundation, which initially provided short-term, project-based support to many charities. Its grants failed 80 percent of the time. It then shifted its way of giving to finding a few charities, each of which was given a substantial investment (around 10 million pounds) over a longer period of time (normally five to seven years). The Foundation’s track record was transformed to succeeding 80 percent of the time. Such an example shows that numbers can speak louder than words. Although what makes the numbers say what they do in this case was Shell’s change in approach, away from a quick tick in the charity box, to making their charitable giving a long-term investment. Or as Fiennes concludes, “to get your giving to achieve all it can, approach it as strategically and intelligently as you approach investing.” 27 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT FIGURE 24 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY ASSETS (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MASTER GROUP NAT DEC-11 DEC-12 Nordea Amundi Storebrand Natixis BNP Paribas KBC Aviva Allianz GI MACIF Pictet TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL SE FR NO FR FR BE GB DE FR CH 58,393.5 25,860.7 9,013.4 7,178.4 3,536.3 3,559.0 2,392.2 3,416.2 1,814.1 2,685.8 117,849.7 178,882.4 75,124.8 31,006.8 12,386.0 4,618.6 4,132.2 3,530.6 2,971.5 2,952.3 2,792.2 2,673.4 142,188.4 210,556.0 FIGURE 25 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY SALES (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MASTER GROUP NAT 2012 Nordea Amundi Storebrand MACIF LGT Aviva SEB BNP Paribas Mediolanum State Street TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL SE FR NO FR LI GB SE FR IT US 9,551.5 2,409.8 2,337.5 940.2 414.8 395.7 333.8 301.4 295.2 271.7 17,251.6 12,592.2 28 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT FIGURE 26 TOP & BOTTOM THREE SECTORS BY SALES (€M) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 Eq Global Bnd NOK Bnd Gl HY Eq Env/Eco Eq Ren Engy/Clim Chg Bnd DKK FIGURE 27 TOP 10 FUNDS BY SALES (€M) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MASTER GROUP NAT FUND NAME 2012 Amundi Storebrand Nordea Nordea Nordea Aviva Amundi MACIF Nordea Nordea TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL FR NO SE SE SE GB FR FR SE SE Amundi Tréso Eonia ISR Storebrand Stat A Nordea 1 - US Corporate bond Fund Nordea Invest Engros Internationale aktier Nordea Institutional Investment Fund, SICAV-FIS CLO Fund Aviva Monétaire ISR SG Monétaire Jour ISR MACIF Court Terme ISR (C) Nordea 1 - Norwegian Bond Nordea Dedicated Investment Fund FIS - US High Yield Fd Note: Data includes both RI Screened and RI Extended funds. 29 2,006.8 1,288.0 1,003.3 963.2 698.6 641.2 605.2 566.5 515.3 482.9 8,771.0 12,592.2 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION ETF TIDDLERS FOR THE CHOP? By Detlef Glow | 8 August 2012 This article was originally published by Reuters – http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/ The exchange-traded fund (ETF) market has shown strong growth since its inception in Europe. Many fund promoters have sought to capitalise on this, seeking to differentiate themselves from rivals and match client needs by injecting some innovation into their product offerings. This has led to a broad variety of ETFs competing for assets, both in terms of asset classes and replication techniques. Looking at assets under management, however, the European ETF market is still highly concentrated. The five top promoters account for more than 75 percent of the entire industry. On a fund-by-fund basis the concentration is even greater. The ten top funds by assets under management (AuM) account for 25.68 percent of the overall total, while the largest fund in the European ETF universe, iShares DAX, accounts for 11.624 billion euros or 4.75 percent of the overall market. A closer examination of the AuM shows that only 47 of the 1,727 ETFs registered for sale in Europe hold assets above one billion euros. These funds account for 49.92 percent of the overall assets under management and are highly profitable “bread and butter” products for their fund promoters. According to iShares, the world’s largest ETF provider, the largest funds in the markets also tend to have the highest turnover, making them attractive to institutional investors who can buy and sell large holdings without making a significant market impact. In addition, institutions such as funds of funds are, under the EU’s UCITS regime, not allowed to hold a major stake in any given fund in their portfolios, making a fund with higher AuM even more attractive. It starts to look like a scale business, where size is its own reward. MINNOWS What of the vast majority of ETFs which don’t boast the muscle of their 47 ‘billionaire’ peers? Actively-managed funds can be merged or liquidated if they don’t gather a certain amount of money over time. So are these lowervolume ETFS now more subject to possible consolidation? The “poor funds” with lower AuM levels have to deal with a lot of pressure. All funds in a product range will incur legal, listing and marketing costs, among others, and since these exist regardless of a fund’s size, some ETFs are simply not profitable. As long as the industry is enjoying healthy growth, where the overall AuM of a promoter are rising on a steady basis, a promoter can absorb this with the proceeds from more sought-after funds. But in an unstable environment, marked by falling revenues and an increasing regulatory burden, fund promoters are forced to review their product ranges, and may make the decision to liquidate funds that are not contributing to earnings. Weighing the cost/benefit characteristics of an ETF is no easy matter and depends on how it is structured, listed and managed. But industry players tell me a good rule of thumb is that a fund can become profitable when AuM exceed 100 million euros. This gives the fund promoter has a solid stream of income from the management fee and they may be able to receive income from trading in the fund as well as from securities lending. So maybe this is the level at which ETFs might suffer a similar fate to their underperforming peers in the activelymanaged sector. Certainly from my point of view, an ETF that has not been able to gather at least one hundred million euros over a three-year period is in serious danger of closure. 30 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION A detailed, and updated, view of the European ETF industry which Lipper produced recently showed that 294 of the 1,727 funds fall into this category. You can view graphics from the initial findings here. Note: the totals have changed since the update. DANGER ZONE With around one sixth of funds in the ‘danger zone’, this might sound pretty tough already for the industry, but it’s worth noting that the number of funds with subpar AuM dramatically increases if we do not apply the three year limit. The complexity of cost-bases and income streams makes trial by AuM a bit of an unfair way of estimating the profitability of an ETF. But it can be taken for granted that larger funds are unlikely to be closed and smaller funds that fail to attract enough investors are on thin ice. This was demonstrated by ETF Securities in June, when it liquidated nine of its funds because they didn’t meet targets for AuM or turnover volume. Things may look grim for the minnows of the ETF market, but there are considerations aside from cold, hard cash. In a number of cases, the fund promoter will keep an unprofitable ETF purely to complete a product offering. Larger players especially like to present clients with a one-stop shop and a near-complete product offering. And the flipside to possible consolidation in the ETF industry is a sustained pressure for innovation, notably in new initiatives toward more active indices, i.e., indices that optimize their risk-return profile, which is creating a new posse of niche products. Despite the fund closures we are seeing over the short term, from my point of view the ETF industry will grow further in all areas, not just in terms of assets under management. We will see more ETFs that track an even broader range of indices coming to the market in the future. This behavior is rational, since product innovation and investor demand are the growth drivers of the industry. Nobody can know what will be the next strategy index to become a mega seller, so index providers and ETF promoters need to continue to be creative, even if they do choose to embark on the odd stint of housekeeping among the back markers. 31 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS FIGURE 28 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FIGURE 29 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY ASSETS (€M) MASTER GROUP NAT DEC-11 DEC-12 BlackRock Deutsche/DWS Soc Gen/Lyxor Cr Suisse Swisscanto UBS Amundi Source GAM Holding Commerzbank TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL US DE FR CH CH CH FR US CH DE 81,509.3 32,207.7 27,064.0 12,047.9 11,292.1 8,100.2 6,402.8 3,675.3 4,603.3 5,451.5 192,354.2 208,078.1 105,711.5 36,529.0 30,669.4 13,344.1 12,293.9 9,071.5 8,569.9 5,810.2 5,178.9 4,879.2 232,057.6 252,274.7 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY SALES (€M) MASTER GROUP NAT 2012 BlackRock State Street Source Amundi PIMCO HSBC GAM Holding Swisscanto Deka Deutsche/DWS TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL US US US FR US GB CH CH DE DE 11,394.6 1,878.4 1,685.1 1,160.2 861.4 624.4 441.6 393.2 367.2 259.6 19,065.8 17,062.0 32 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS FIGURE 30 TOP & BOTTOM THREE SECTORS BY SALES (€M) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 Bnd Eur CIG Eq Europe Commod Bnd Eur Sh-T MM Euro Eq DE FIGURE 31 TOP 10 FUNDS BY SALES (€M) RANK MASTER GROUP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 BlackRock BlackRock BlackRock BlackRock BlackRock BlackRock BlackRock BlackRock PIMCO BlackRock TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL FUND NAME 2012 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets iShares BC Euro Corporate Bond ex-Financials iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund iShares MSCI World iShares Markit iBoxx Euro High Yield Fund iShares BC Euro Corporate Bond iShares Markit iBoxx USD High Yield Capped Bond MSCI Europe PIMCO US Dollar Short Maturity Source ETF iShares FTSE Gilts UK 0-5 33 1,056.6 848.6 830.6 823.3 698.7 574.2 566.9 460.7 454.0 417.5 6,731.0 17,062.0 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES BONDS HIGH YIELD FIGURE 32 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FIGURE 33 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY ASSETS (€M) MASTER GROUP NAT DEC-11 DEC-12 AXA/AB Fidelity Nordea Goldman Sachs Pioneer Neuberger Berman Schroders BlackRock PIMCO Fr Templeton TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL FR US SE US IT US GB US US US 21,425.8 6,676.7 5,801.5 4,781.3 3,887.0 3,646.4 3,644.4 3,614.7 3,423.6 3,231.5 60,133.0 123,611.2 35,390.6 9,271.6 9,434.9 6,315.2 5,505.6 6,676.1 3,582.0 7,296.6 6,738.8 4,520.4 94,731.9 193,953.1 TOP 10 MASTER GROUPS BY SALES (€M) MASTER GROUP NAT 2012 AXA/AB Allianz GI BlackRock PIMCO Nordea Neuberger Berman JP Morgan Aviva UBS Amundi TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL FR DE US US SE US US GB CH FR 11,194.5 3,918.5 2,759.1 2,694.5 2,504.0 2,377.3 1,732.9 1,656.0 1,648.7 1,606.1 32,091.6 49,735.0 34 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT THEMES BONDS HIGH YIELD FIGURE 34 TOP & BOTTOM SECTORS (€M) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Bnd USD Corp HY Bnd Gl HY Bnd Eur Corp HY Bnd Europ Curr Corp HY Bnd GBP HY FIGURE 35 TOP 10 FUNDS BY SALES (€M) RANK MASTER GROUPS FUND NAME 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 AXA/AB AXA/AB Allianz GI Neuberger Berman AXA/AB PIMCO JP Morgan Fidelity Mediolanum BlackRock TOTAL TOP 10 TOTAL AXA IM FIIS - US Short Duration High Yield AllianceBernstein - Global High Yield Portfolio Allianz Global Investors Fund - Allianz US High Yield Neuberger Berman High Yield Bond Fund AXA World Funds - US High Yield Bonds PIMCO GIS Global High Yield Bond Fund JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global High Yield Bond Fidelity Funds - US High Yield Fund Mediolanum Best Brands Global High Yield BlackRock Global Funds - US Dollar High Yield Bond Fund 35 4,550.1 3,796.0 3,716.3 2,138.9 2,027.9 1,906.5 1,490.0 1,288.4 1,272.8 1,231.9 23,418.7 49,735.0 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT NEW FUNDS BY SECTOR FIGURE 36 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 FIGURE 37 TOP 25 SECTORS OF NEW FUNDS (€M) FUND SECTOR # FUNDS ENS '12 115 275 111 69 116 55 38 115 40 45 118 21 44 25 25 28 68 24 47 66 18 19 9 15 45 1,436 2,513 19,530.9 9,868.6 6,506.7 6,189.7 4,603.6 4,260.4 4,101.0 4,022.7 3,945.8 3,556.7 3,392.3 3,318.6 3,210.7 2,618.0 2,377.2 2,347.4 2,247.2 2,086.6 2,057.3 1,859.4 1,732.2 1,709.9 1,642.8 1,472.8 1,437.0 100,096.0 136,036.0 Target Maturity Euroland Asset Allocation Guaranteed Fund Bonds Global Currencies Equities Global Bonds EUR Target Maturity Other Protected Fund Fund of Funds Guaranteed Mixed Assets Balanced Fund of Funds Asset Allocation Money Market EUR Bonds Emerging Markets Bonds Global High Yield Bonds EUR Corp. Inv. Grade Bonds Global Corporates Equities Emerging Markets Bonds Flexible Equities North America Equities Speciality Fund of Funds Bonds Bonds USD Bonds EUR Corp. High Yield Bonds Emerging Markets - Local Currency Commodities TOP 25 SECTORS TOTAL MARKET SHARE OF LEADING SECTORS OF NEW FUNDS Rest 25% Top 5 sectors 35% 16-25 sectors 14% Next 10 sectors 26% 36 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION ACTIVE VS. PASSIVE, ROUND 3,462 By Ed Moisson | 7 June 2012 This article was originally published by Reuters – http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/ Our team at Lipper spent much of the first quarter handing out awards to fund managers round the world who have delivered exceptional performance to their investors. Since then, I’ve had time to take a step back and assess just how good the wider European industry has been at outperforming over the longer term. Active fund managers’ ability to out-perform their benchmarks sits near the heart of any discussion on the relative merits of active versus passive. In broad terms the argument against investing in an actively-managed fund is that one takes on the additional risk that the fund will significantly under-perform the index, a risk that is exacerbated over time by the additional costs associated with such a fund. The argument against passive is that one not only misses out on the possibility of superior, but also that, in principle, one is guaranteed to under-perform the index. Clearly the case for active fund management goes hand-in-hand with the case for prudent fund selection. Indeed an industry has grown up trying to deliver the latter for investors, with professional fund selectors choosing funds to invest in and packaging this up as a product of itself: funds of funds. Assets invested in funds of funds in Europe stand at around 360 billion euros – noticeably greater than the assets invested in passively managed funds. The most straightforward means to assess actively managed funds’ success in beating their benchmarks is to look at their latest performance figures. To this end all actively managed equity funds’ performance relative to their benchmarks was assessed over 1, 3 and 10 years to the end of December 2011. The proportion of funds that out-performed varied from 26.7 percent in 2011, 40.0 percent over 3 years and 34.9 percent over the past 10 years. Solely for managers of UK equity funds, the figures were 22.4 percent, 42.4 percent and 37.6 percent. But the issue of survivorship bias also needs be grasped. To do this, funds’ rolling returns were assessed every year from 1992 to the end of 2011. For 1-year periods, the proportion of equity funds that out-performed has varied between 59.1 percent and 26.7 percent, coincidentally the first and last years in this analysis. TOUGH MARKETS The annual average proportion of out-performing funds is 42.8 percent, at the higher end of the spectrum found in the initial analysis above. This suggests that the difficult recent market conditions have indeed had a negative impact on the proportion of active managers that have been able to beat their benchmarks. The wide variation in out-performance depending on classification of funds is highlighted in 1-year rolling returns. For example, funds investing in Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) ranged from 8.3 percent (in 2004) to 83.8 percent (in 1999) of funds out-performing their benchmarks, while for UK equities the range has been much narrower, between 23.1 percent (2011) and 64.5 percent (2000). For long-term investors the fact that an active manager does not out-perform in every calendar year is likely to be less significant than whether he/she can out-perform over a longer time period. To examine this, the data was expanded to look at rolling 3-year and 10-year periods. For 3-year rolling periods the proportion outperforming is 41.4 percent and for 10-year rolling periods it is 39.7 percent. In other words, the proportion of funds out-performing over longer periods may have dropped very slightly, but it remains largely stable. 37 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION Over 3-year periods, a greater proportion of UK equity managers generally outperform than for other classifications. While the average proportion of Asia Pacific funds out-performing is slightly higher than that for the UK (48.9 percent compared to 47.6 percent), this is clearly the result of results posted over the first 10 years, while the more recent period has seen a significant fall for Asian fund managers. For 10-year rolling periods among the largest classifications, UK equity managers impressively maintain their average proportion of out-performers (47.4 percent), while North American equities – already relatively poor cousins – worsen dramatically over this longer period, with an average of just 20.8 percent of funds outperforming their benchmarks. These findings will clearly not settle the active versus passive debate one way or the other, but they do provide robust statistical research into funds’ relative performance. Such insights can better inform this ongoing discussion. 38 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CROSS-BORDER PROGRESS GROUP WINNERS FIGURE 38 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TOP 25 INTERNATIONAL GROUPS BY ESTIMATED NET SALES IN 2012 (€M) MASTER GROUP NAT # FUNDS ASSETS DEC '12 ENS '12 PIMCO AXA/AB BlackRock Aberdeen Prudential/M&G JP Morgan Allianz GI Nordea Morgan Stanley Pictet Amundi Carmignac HSBC Muzinich Goldman Sachs RBC State Street Invesco MMC/Mercer MFS Vontobel Stone Harbor GAM Holding Lombard Odier Neuberger Berman TOP 25 TOTAL US FR US GB GB US DE SE US CH FR FR GB US US CA US US US US CH US CH CH US 59 215 369 84 66 189 53 94 68 175 213 14 135 9 107 39 79 92 36 35 44 12 134 97 13 2,431 9,318 107,603 79,768 213,089 45,018 49,764 61,507 14,295 27,983 24,321 44,085 30,884 50,218 31,208 10,128 27,612 23,608 11,467 21,231 9,890 13,952 9,244 11,760 28,819 14,324 7,497 969,277 2,083,492 35,128.2 24,118.7 12,717.1 9,062.2 8,997.1 6,464.2 6,360.3 5,866.8 5,396.8 5,091.6 4,988.2 4,862.7 4,618.6 4,448.2 4,026.9 3,730.3 3,291.0 3,211.5 3,158.1 3,147.2 2,940.6 2,870.4 2,698.0 2,485.5 2,475.0 172,155.2 220,681.6 230,366.3 Note: Excludes money market funds. 39 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CROSS-BORDER PROGRESS GROUP WINNERS FIGURE 39 GROUP POSITIONING BY SALES AND PERFORMANCE CONTRIBUTION TO ASSET GROWTH 26,000 24,000 BlackRock 22,000 Performance contribution (annually) (€m) 20,000 18,000 16,000 Fr Templeton 14,000 Intesa SP 12,000 Invesco UBS 10,000 8,000 Allianz 6,000 AXA/AB Aberdeen PIMCO BNY JPM GAM 4,000 Nordea Pictet Standard Life Carmignac Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs Muzinich 2,000 0 -2,000 -12,000 Prudential/M&G Deutsche/DWS -6,000 0 6,000 12,000 18,000 Sales contribution (annually) (€m) Note: Excludes money market funds. 40 24,000 30,000 36,000 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CROSS-BORDER PROGRESS FOREIGN SHARE OF SALES IN EUROPE NET SALES OF CROSS-BORDER GROUPS BY MARKET FIGURE 40 IN 2012 - ALL FUNDS (€M) Domestic Cross-Border 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 CH IT FR UK SWE DEU AU SP NL BE NET SALES OF CROSS-BORDER GROUPS BY MARKET FIGURE 41 IN 2012 - EQUITY ONLY (€M) Domestic Cross-Border 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 CH SWE BE AU SP NL IT DEU FR UK NET SALES OF CROSS-BORDER GROUPS BY MARKET FIGURE 42 IN 2012 - BOND ONLY (€M) Domestic Cross-Border 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 IT CH FR DEU UK BE SP SWE AU 41 NL EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CROSS-BORDER PROGRESS FOREIGN SHARE OF SALES OUTSIDE EUROPE NET SALES OF CROSS-BORDER GROUPS BY MARKET FIGURE 43 IN 2012 - ALL FUNDS (€M) Domestic 20,000 Cross-Border 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 HK ARG SNG TW PER CHL JPN NET SALES OF CROSS-BORDER GROUPS BY MARKET FIGURE 44 IN 2012 - EQUITY ONLY (€M) Domestic 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500 -4,000 -4,500 HK TW ARG Cross-Border PER SNG CHL JPN NET SALES OF CROSS-BORDER GROUPS BY MARKET FIGURE 45 IN 2012 - BOND ONLY (€M) Domestic Cross-Border 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 HK TW SNG PER ARG CHL 42 JPN EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CROSS-BORDER PROGRESS FOREIGN SHARE OF ASSETS CROSS-BORDER FUNDS’ FIGURE 46 SHARE OF ASSETS BY REGION TOP FIVE MARKETS FOR FIGURE 47 CROSS-BORDER ASSETS Offshore South America 2% Rest 6% 2% Asia Pacific 15% Switzerland 16% Rest 43% Europe 75% United Kingdom 6% Italy 16% Taiwan 7% Germany 12% FIGURE 48 CROSS-BORDER FUNDS’ SHARE OF ASSETS (€M) COUNTRY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Switzerland Italy Germany Taiwan United Kingdom Spain France Hong Kong Netherlands Singapore TOP 10 REST TOTAL DEC-11 DEC-12 GROWTH % 113,423.2 95,652.3 78,481.9 44,916.9 32,454.9 23,578.8 21,002.5 24,487.5 19,191.1 12,247.7 465,436.8 251,833.8 616,773.2 126,588.1 121,202.9 90,541.6 55,084.2 49,069.8 33,198.1 31,560.0 31,107.1 22,034.2 16,963.6 577,349.5 326,958.3 11.6 26.7 15.4 22.6 51.2 40.8 50.3 27.0 14.8 38.5 769,528.5 1. Assets of cross-border funds domiciled in Europe and sold worldwide. 2. Actual asset data contributed by 45 group members of the Lipper AssetWatch service. 3. Data is third party retail only. 43 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CROSS-BORDER PROGRESS DOMESTIC VS. FOREIGN SECTORS FIGURE 49 TOP 5 DOMESTIC AND CROSS-BORDER SECTORS IN THE MAJOR MARKETS FRANCE 1 2 3 4 5 DOMESTIC Bonds EUR Short-Term Short Term Dynamic Target Maturity Euroland Bonds EUR Corp. Inv. Grade Fund of Funds Money Market ENS '12 3,222.1 2,221.1 1,616.2 1,610.0 756.0 CROSS-BORDER Bonds USD Corp. High Yield Bonds Emerging Markets Bonds Flexible Bonds Global Corporates Bonds EUR Corp. Inv. Grade REAL SALES '12 Confidential GERMANY 1 2 3 4 5 DOMESTIC Asset Allocation Bonds EUR Corp. Inv. Grade Target Maturity Euroland Bonds Emerging Markets Mixed Assets Conservative ENS '12 3,502.6 1,923.5 1,581.5 1,338.0 1,334.1 CROSS-BORDER Mixed Assets Balanced Bonds EUR Bonds Emerging Markets - Local Currency Bonds Global Currencies Bonds Flexible REAL SALES '12 Confidential 1 2 3 4 5 DOMESTIC Target Maturity Euroland Fund of Funds Bonds Bonds Global Currencies Bonds Global High Yield Currency Exchange Strategies ENS '12 10,825.8 3,134.8 1,593.8 1,358.0 1,138.1 CROSS-BORDER Bonds Global Corporates Bonds Global Currencies Bonds USD Bonds Emerging Markets Bonds Flexible REAL SALES '12 Confidential iTALY SWITZERLAND 1 2 3 4 5 DOMESTIC Equities Emerging Markets Bonds CHF Equities North America Bonds Global Currencies Equities Europe ENS '12 3,011.8 2,847.2 2,016.5 1,242.6 859.1 CROSS-BORDER Bonds USD Corp. High Yield Bonds USD Bonds Global Corporates Bonds Emerging Markets Bonds Flexible REAL SALES '12 Confidential 1 2 3 4 5 DOMESTIC Asset Allocation Fund of Funds Balanced Fund of Funds Conservative Equities Emerging Markets Equities North America ENS '12 11,071.3 1,835.4 1,711.5 1,569.4 1,206.2 CROSS-BORDER Asset Allocation Bonds Global Corporates Bonds USD Corp. High Yield Bonds USD Bonds Global Currencies REAL SALES '12 Confidential UK Note: Excludes money market funds 44 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION CONNECTION: RETURNS AND SALES IN THE UK By Ed Moisson | 11 December 2012 This article was originally published on Lipper Insight - http://lipperinsight.thomsonreuters.com/ It is not a surprise to discover that funds with first quartile performance attract the greatest inflows in the UK, but some new research from Lipper goes beyond the headline to investigate how the relationship between fund sales and performance has changed over the past ten years, with variations by sector, different rolling periods, and relative sales for lower quartile returns. The research establishes the proportion of net sales attributable to funds with different returns. Net sales were calculated every three months for funds with 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year rolling returns, not simply a snapshot of one period, and grouped by performance quartile. Taking all funds together, for 1-, 3- and 5-year performance, first quartile funds in aggregate have attracted inflows in every quarter over the past ten years. For those funds with 10-year returns, the value of first quartile performance is less pronounced, but even here in 25 out of 33 quarters (i.e. more than 75% of the time), first quartile funds in aggregate enjoyed inflows. For second quartile funds, on average positive sales activity is registered when looking at 1-year rolling returns across the ten years assessed. But second quartile funds typically suffered outflows for 3-, 5- and 10- year rolling returns. This seems logical, for example with fund selectors giving managers the opportunity to improve returns when performance has dropped out of the highest quartile for one year. Even so, ultimately the dominance of first quartile performance in driving sales prevails, with some “tough love” shown to those that drop out of this top group for longer periods. The findings can be broken down to see how sales activity has varied between IMA Sectors. Most striking is perhaps the success in generating inflows for poorer performing funds in the Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares sector (formerly Cautious Managed). This is most obviously the case when looking at 1-year returns, but even for 3-year and 10-year periods lower quartile funds fare relatively well in sales terms. In particular one can see that between 2002 and the end of 2007 outflows from any quartile of funds were negligible in this sector, although the financial crisis has changed this somewhat for those with poorer 3-year or 5-year returns. For equity funds it is worth noting that this asset class has been largely out of favour since 2008 and this is reflected in the findings for European, UK and UK Smaller Companies funds (although first quartile performance generally helps even here). Having said this, Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific funds present different results, with inflows to first quartile funds generally outpacing all other funds (except for 10-year data). The former sector in particular has seen very limited outflows, even when looking at aggregate data for poorer performing funds. Turning to Sterling Corporate Bond funds, it is interesting to find the degree to which aggregate sales for poorer performing funds – most notably those ranked in the second quartile – have regularly pushed into positive territory and look to be detracting from sales of those funds with first quartile performance. This pattern is partly the result of the significant rise in sales of funds in this sector from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, as the reverberations of the financial crisis were first being felt. It does look as though the managers that were most favoured in this period were those with at least 10 years experience, i.e. a proven track record (even if such a track record was not first quartile over shorter periods). 45 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION Among conclusions, it is worth saying that just because sales are greater for first quartile funds this does not mean that these funds do not also exhibit other characteristics that warrant investment. This is all the more the case when bearing in mind that there is likely to be wide variations in inflows for funds within the first performance quartile. The difference in fund sales between those with good shorter performance periods (1- and 3-years) compared to longer periods (5- and 10-years) also suggests that some investors are taking advantage of a manager’s “winning streak” or, more precisely, the short-term persistence in fund performance. Evidence for the phenomenon of short-term persistence has been found by various academics, including Bernhardt et al (2003), Bollen and Busse (2004), Carhart (1997), Hendricks et al (1993) and Zheng (1998). While definitions of “short-term” used in these papers vary, Wermers (2003) certainly goes further when he concludes that out-performers “continue to outperform other funds for at least two years following the ranking year.” In such a situation it is certainly possible that investors, or their advisers, are effectively buying and selling perceived alpha generated by funds in an effort to stay ahead of benchmarks. Certainly there is much use of quant screens of different kinds by fund selectors – hardly surprising given the thousands of funds available. This research does not mean that a fund manager has to be short-termist, but the sales patterns identified will inevitably put pressure on a manager’s recent track record if a fund wants to achieve significant inflows over time. 46 EUROPEAN FUND MARKET REVIEW 2013 EDITION FOOTNOTES 1. All data as at 31 December 2012 unless otherwise stated. 2. ‘International’ fund market. Lipper defines an International fund as a fund that sources less than 80% of its assets from any single country. Some fund groups have domestic and international funds. 3. ‘Domestic’ fund market. If a fund sources more than 80% of its assets from a single country then the fund is allocated to that market regardless of its domicile. 4. Funds of funds have been excluded from all charts and tables (to avoid double-counting) unless otherwise stated. Therefore a market total is the sum of all the investment categories excluding the three funds of funds categories (in-house, ex-house and hedge). 5. The investment category ‘other’ includes a variety of different product categories. For most markets, especially Belgium, Spain and France, the figure comprises guaranteed funds, but there are also derivatives, commodities and other speciality funds in the ‘other’ category. 6. Property funds are open-ended property funds only. 7. Master group. Analysis that aggregates the European mutual fund assets under the umbrella of their parent company name. 8. ENS stands for estimated net sales. 9. ETFs are included in Lipper’s database on mutual funds, but this excludes exchange-traded commodity products that are not mutual funds. 10. References to foreign activity relate to actual sales as measured by Lipper’s SalesWatch confidential service. The 48 SalesWatch members are estimated to account for 75-80% of total cross-border sales activity. 11. Funds of funds holdings data based on analysis of 2,000 European-domiciled third party funds of funds. CONTACT US PRODUCT MANAGER, LIPPER FUNDFILE: JÉRÔME COUTEUR jerome.couteur@thomsonreuters.com SABINA GRABOWSKA sabina.grabowska@thomsonreuters.com PRODUCT MANAGER, LIPPER SALESWATCH: BARBARA FERRARESI barbara.ferraresi@thomsonreuters.com ELISABETTA FORELLI elisabetta.forelli@thomsonreuters.com CHERYL PATE cheryl.pate@thomsonreuters.com DESIGNED BY: NAOMI HANDKE LIPPER DATABASES FEATURED: FUNDFILE - http://bit.ly/LipperFundFile SALESWATCH - http://bit.ly/LipperSalesWatch 47