OVERVIEW OF MANITOBA HYDRO’S SYSTEM
O’S S S
David Cormie
Joanne Flynn
Outline
• Manitoba Hydro
Manitoba Hydro’ss Existing System
Existing System
• Hydro System Characteristics
Hydro System Characteristics
• Planning Objective and Criteria
Planning Objective and Criteria
• Lake Winnipeg Impacts
Lake Winnipeg Impacts
– Keeyask and/or Conawapa
2
Capacity and Energy Defined
Capacity and Energy Defined
– Capacity available
Capacity available
• Maximum rate of power output
– Megawatts
Megawatts (MW) that the generator can be relied upon to (MW) that the generator can be relied upon to
produce
• MH system = 6,265 MW
– Energy produced
• 1 GWh = 1,000 MWh = 1,000,000 kWh
• MH system generates an average of 32,000 GWh annually
• Manitoba domestic demand 25,500 GWh
annually
3
Overview of the
O
i
f th
Existing System
Manitoba Hydro
‐
A medium sized utility
‐
Predominately hydro power
Predominately hydro power
‐
Large variability in generation
‐
Physically remote in northwest corner of Eastern Interconnection
‐
Surrounded by predominately summer peaking thermal generation utilities mainly to Surrounded
by predominately summer peaking thermal generation utilities mainly to
the southeast
‐
Transmission constrained
Power System
Power System
Installed Capacity:
Installed
Capacity:
Hydro (winter peak) 5200 MW
Thermal 515 MW
Purchases Capacity:
Imports (Diversity) 550 MW
Wind (250 MW)
0 MW
Total
6265 MW
Henday
Radisson
Laurie River
Wuskwatim
Kelsey
Limestone
Long Spruce
Kettle
Jenpeg
Grand Rapids
Transmission Lines: Total km 6885 km
Selkirk
Brandon
Pine Falls
Great Falls
McArthur Falls
Seven Sisters
Pointe du Bois
Slave Falls
Dorsey
St. Leon Wind Farm
St. Joseph Wind Farm
Manitoba Hydro Drainage Basins
Manitoba Hydro Drainage Basins
Alberta
Upper Churchill
Saskatchewan River
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Lower Churchill
19%
Nelson River Local
20%
16%
39%
Montana
Red River
Red River
Winnipeg River
6%
North Dakota
South Dakota
h k
Minnesota
7
Historical Water Supply
System Inflows
160%
140%
100%
Average Flow
80%
60%
Dependable Flow
40%
20%
2012/13 (actual/exp.)
Fiscal Year Beginning
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
0%
1930
2013/14 (median)
1920
Percent o
of Average
120%
8
Transmission Interconnections
Transmission Interconnections
Long Term Firm
Transfer Capabilities
f
bili i
225 MW
(Scheduling Limits)
288 MW
2175 MW
Export
Import
1950 MW
700 MW
Ontario
200 MW
0 MW
Sask.
150 MW
0 MW
U.S
Interconnections built to maximize the value of surplus capacity and energy
9
Reservoir Storage
g
• Store water for future generation
– Time of greater value/need
– 2 ‐ 12 TWh
Energy in Manitoba Reservoir Storage
1977-2011
2012-13
Average
2013-14
20
18
• Key reservoirs
14
Energy (TWh
h)
– Lake Winnipeg
– Cedar Lake
C d L k
– Southern Indian
Lake
16
12
10
5 TWh
8
6
4
• Subject to limits
– Maximum
– Minimum
2
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Month
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Data Current as of 07-03-2013
10
Hydro System Characteristics
Characteristics of a Predominantly Hydro S t
System
 Large Water Variability
 Energy Constrained Energy Constrained




System
Resource Diversity
Resource Diversity
Transmission Limitations
Long Lead Times
Long Lead Times
Large Investments
12
Energy Constrained System
Energy Constrained System – Designed
Designed to meet energy requirements under to meet energy requirements under
the critical flow period
– Designed to meet peak load requirements
Designed to meet peak load requirements
– Surplus in all flow conditions other than critical flow period
flow period
13
Resource Diversity
Resource Diversity – Provides
Provides a mix of generation types in times of a mix of generation types in times of
drought or high fuel prices
– Mix
Mix of resources can be achieved by building in of resources can be achieved by building in
Manitoba or by relying on purchased power over interconnections
over interconnections
14
Transmission Limitations
– Hydro generation is remote
• requires transmission to move power to load centers – Lack of transmission means congestion
• More congestion unless new transmission is built to handle additional surplus
• Congestion exists today
C
ti
it t d
– Export to Ontario
– North Dakota wind
North Dakota wind
• Limited ability to move power across Canada/US
15
Planning Objectives and Criteria
Planning Objectives
g j
• Secure resources to meet the future energy and capacity needs of Manitoba
– Obligation to serve
• Meet committed firm sales
• Do so at the least net cost to Manitoba customers
• Environmental and social impacts considered
18
Manitoba Hydro’s G
Generation Planning Criteria
ti Pl
i C it i
• Capacity Criterion
– Sufficient capacity to meet forecast peak load, plus
– 12% reserve
• increase in demand above forecast
• breakdown of plant
• recognizes that load growth and equipment availability is
subject to uncertainty
• Energy Resource Planning Criterion
– There must be sufficient energy supply available to meet firm energy d
demand in the event the lowest recorded coincident water supply di h
h l
d d i id
l
conditions are repeated
– Sources of dependable energy are
• hydro, thermal, wind purchases
• energy imports 19
Energy Defined
Energy Defined
– Dependable Energy
Dependable Energy
• Energy produced by the system under the lowest flow conditions on record
– Average Energy
• The average of energy produced based on all The average of energy produced based on all
historic flow conditions
– Maximum Energy
Maximum Energy
• Energy produced as a result of most favorable flow conditions on record
20
Hydro Energy
160%
140%
100%
80%
60%
2011/12
2010
2000
1990
1980
Dependable Inflows
1960
1950
0%
1940
20%
1930
Critical Flow Period
1939 1941
1939‐1941
1970
40%
1920
% of Averag
ge
120%
Fiscal Year Beginning
21
Energy Sources
Energy Sources
• Hydro Energy
– Dependable Inflows, plus
– Maximum Use of Manitoba Reservoir Storage
• Thermal Energy
Thermal Energy
– Station output if operated continuously
– Derated for outages and maintenance
– Coal, natural gas
• Wind Energy
– 85% of average annual wind generation
• Purchased Energy
– Must be on firm transmission
– Available under contract
Available under contract
– Available in off peak periods from organized market
22
A
Annual Ene
ergy (GW.h
h)
Surplus Energy ‐ By Design
Firm Load
Add new Plant
Just in Time Construction
Surplus Energy
(Minimum and predictable)
(Minimum and predictable)
Surplus Energy
(maximum and unpredictable)
Number of Years
Minimum/Maximum spread
Minimum/Maximum
spread
Gets bigger with each
new plant
23
Variability in Hydro Energy Supply
Variability in Hydro Energy Supply
80000
PRESENT
PAST
FUTURE
70000
60000
14 TWh
50000
10 TWh
GW
W.h
15 TWh
40000
Median Flow
12 TWh
6 TWh
30000
8 TWh
20000
10000
0
1970
Conawapa
Surplus Energy
Keeyask
Wuskwatim
Limestone
Long Spruce &
Jenpeg
Dependable Energy
Kettle
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
24
Value of Interconnections
Value of Interconnections
 Provides Market Access
 Export of surplus power
E
f
l
 Import of a diverse source
of power
 Capacity sharing due to load diversity
 Risk mitigation
 Emergencies
 Load forecast
 Climate change
 Enhances Grid Reliability
h
G id li bili
 Sharing of required reserves
Decreases Overall Regional GHG’ss
 Decreases Overall Regional GHG
25
Market Access = Market Price
Market Access Market Price
Summer Day
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
Winter Day
• Spot
Spot market wholesale electricity price
market wholesale electricity price
– Highly variable ‐ dependant on
many, many factors
– ‐$2000 to +$2000 per MWh
‐$2000 to +$2000 per MWh
• No typical price
– Always changing
– On‐peak, off‐peak averages used
• Marginal cost of hydraulic energy $5/MWh
• Hydro is flexible
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
26
Spot Price ‐ Change every 5 minutes
Spot Price Change every 5 minutes
MHEB: $‐2246.40
27
Hydro ‐ Large Investments Hydro Large Investments
– High capital cost investment
High capital cost investment
– Majority of cost in civil structures
– LLow, stable operating costs that contribute to t bl
ti
t th t
t ib t t
stable rate increases
– LLarge plants can satisfy many years of l
if
f
Manitoba load growth
28
Hydro ‐
Extremely Long Lead Times
l
d i
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Exploration, Engineering, Environment
Exploration,
Engineering, Environment
Negotiations, Approvals, Licensing
Construction
Increasingly complex
20 years becoming normal 1/2 a career or more
20 years becoming normal ‐
1/2 a career or more
Keeyask – 2019
Conawapa 2026
Conawapa –
29
Preferred Development Plan
Preferred Development Plan
• Keeyask G.S. (695 MW) – 2019/20
• Conawapa G.S. (1485 MW) G.S. (1485 MW) – 2026/27
• New 500 kV US Interconnection – 2020
• Sale Agreements
–
–
–
–
Minnesota Power
Wisconsin Public Service
Northern States Power
Oth
Others
30
Resource Sequence Comparisons
q
p
• Consistent methodology used to evaluate all new resource additions
– PUB, CEC and NFAT submissions
• Standard Industry Practice
• Applied to all forms of new supply options
–
–
–
–
Hydro
Thermal
Wi d
Wind
Purchases
31
System Impacts
y
p
• Adding new generation can impact the entire MH system
– Existing hydro and thermal stations
– Imports
– Exports
• Adding
Adding new generation in combination with new new generation in combination with new
interconnections, new export and import contracts becomes even more complicated
becomes even more complicated
• Physical, Financial, Environmental and Rates
– Impacts
Impacts from new generation only one
from new generation only one
of many variables 32
Lake Winnipeg
p g
• 12th largest lake in world
g
– 50% of storage in Nelson Churchill watershed
• Primarily regulated for
– Hydropower ‐ 711 to 715 feet
– Flood Control ‐ >715 feet
– WPA Licence
Lake Winnipeg
Regulation Works
• LWR regulates flow of Nelson River
– Outflows controlled at Jenpeg
p g GS
– 50% more outflow is possible
– 69% of MH generation downstream
• Post Keeyask/Conawapa 78%
Post Keeyask/Conawapa 78%
33
Preferred Development Plan
Impact on Lake Winnipeg
k
i i
• What won’t change
– Terms of WPA License
– Approach to Lake Winnipeg regulation
– Obligations to stakeholders
• What will change
– Outflows and Levels
– Changes will be minor
• Major driver is water supply
34
Lake Winnipeg Water Levels
( ih d ih
(with and without regulation ‐
l i
1977‐2011))
Without Regulation
With Regulation
Minor change in water regime expected as a result of
proposed new projects
35
Q ti
Questions
36