PV MARKET AND POLICY TRENDS
IN EUROPE
Marie Latour
Senior National Policy Advisor
Polish PV GRID Forum, Warsaw, 6 June 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Content
Historical Market development
Current Policy drivers in Europe and New Business Models
Competitiveness of PV
Market Scenarios towards 2017
Q2 2013
Page 2
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Historical development of the PV market
Here, you can write a short
description of the chapter.
Q2 2013
Page 3
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Historical development of the PV market
Global PV market was stable in 2012
Q2 2013
Page 4
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Name of the chapter
More countries appeared on the map in 2012
Q2 2013
Page 5
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Historical development of the PV market
European market went down in 2012, mainly because of
Italy’s unsustainable surge in 2011.
Q2 2013
Page 6
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
PV again the first source of electricity installed in EU27
Source: EWEA, EPIA
Power generation capacities added in 2012
in EU (MW)
22000
17000
12000
16672
11895
10535
7000
3065
2000
-207
decommissioned
1338
-43
-3000
833
424
-158
50
22
7
6
installed
5
-1205
-3204
-5495
-5441
-8000
Q2 2013
Page 7
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
New installed capacities in Europe since 2000
Net Power generation capacities added in 2012 in EU27 (MW)
45000
42 231
40000
35000
30000
~ 2,6 % - EU Electricity Demand
25000
20000
15000
16 672
10 522
10000
5 040
5000
1 295
1 166
833
266
50
6
5
0
-5000
-1 183
-2 376
-3 197
-10000
Q2 2013
Page 8
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Market segmentation in Europe
European variety
Q2 2013
Page 9
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Market Segmentation
PV on rooftops increases in Europe (from 65% to 72% of the market in 2012
compared to 2011)
In absolute value in Europe,
• Residential market grew from
• Commercial/ industrial declined from
• Ground mounted declined from
2.9 to
7.6 to
5.7 to
3.3 GW
5.2 GW
4.5 GW
Q2 2013
Page 11
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Current Policy Drivers in Europe and New
Business Models
Q2 2013
Page 12
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Market Segmentation
PV development drivers
1%
10%
18%
2%
Self-consumption
Net-metering
4%
Globally,
FiT
still
dominates
together
with
traditional support schemes (Green Cert./Grants)
FIT
Green
Certificates
ROC/RPS
Green
C
Self-consumption represents 10% of the market
Grants
65%
Competitive PV
Net-metering is negligeable
Purely competitive PV is hard to assess
Q2 2013
Page 13
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Historical cost of Feed-in Tariffs in Europe
Which countries were more expensive than others to support PV in the last years ?
In average in Europe, the cost of one kWh of PV electricity was 0,35 EUR/ kWh
UK
0,54
NL
0,29
CZ
0,44
PT
0,27
ES
0,38
GR
0,27
IT
0,39
DE
0,34
BE-F
0,35
BE-W
0,37
FR
0,41
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
Q2 2013
Page 14
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Current cost of Feed-in Tariffs
Are the current support schemes as expensive as PV used to be in average in the past ?
Question:
How much would it cost every year to support 1 additional GW / 1 additional TWh of PV electricity
(based on current FiTs) ? Huge differences from one country to another.
Cost in EUR of additional PV capacities (1 GW / 1 TWh)
500 000 000
Cost for 1 additional GW
450 000 000
Cost for 1 additional TWh
400 000 000
350 000 000
300 000 000
250 000 000
200 000 000
150 000 000
100 000 000
50 000 000
0
FR
AT
BE-W
BE-F
DE
IT
GR
ES
PT
CZ
NL
Q2 2013
UK
Page 15
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
New Business Models : alternatives to pure FiTs driven markets
Production & Consumption: “Prosumer”
• Valorisation of direct or self-consumption  towards a energy system approach and
not a financial-return only approach.
Energy savings to become attractive
Utility-scale PV : Generation only
• Valorisation of PV on wholesale electricity market
• Power Purchase Agreements...
Q2 2013
Page 16
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
s
Two main type of alternative “prosumer” schemes
developing in Europe
Net-Metering
Self-consumption schemes
Q2 2013
Page 17
NET METERING
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
NET-METERING
Netting of PV production in excess
and additional electricity demand
over a long period (month/year):
« Meter is turning backwards)»
Simple billing/calculation
arrangement
Incentive = savings on elec. bill
Q2 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
SELF-CONSUMPTION
SELF-SONSUMPTION
Self-consuming PV production is natural:
It corresponds to the PV production that
a « prosumer » consumes in Real Time
Two main types of incentives:
• Direct: Self-consumption premium
(Italy)
• Indirect: German model (FiT < elec
prices)
SELF-CONSUMPTION METER
Q2 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Self-consumption – residential prosumer standard profile
Production
4
Load
3
2
Self-consumption
1
kWh
0
Excess fed to the grid
-1
-2
-3
Consumption
Production
Self-consumption
Excess fed into the grid
Q2 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
External Procurement
Feed into the Grid
Selfconsumption
Summer Load Profile
0:00
23:00
22:00
21:00
20:00
19:00
18:00
17:00
16:00
15:00
14:00
13:00
12:00
11:00
10:00
9:00
8:00
7:00
6:00
5:00
4:00
3:00
2:00
1:00
W
Self-consumption: Example of a commercial profile with day-consumption vs PV
Production (without storage)
Summer PV-Generation
Q2 2013
Page 22
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Overview of Main Net-Metering and Self-consumption schemes in Europe
NL:
Net-metering
< 3x80 A (max 5,000 kWh)
UK:
Export tariff (50% of production by
default) <30 kWp
(≈ self-consumption premium)
BE:
Net-metering <10 kVA (<5kVA
in Brussels)
DK:
Net-metering (new version
waiting for approval)
DE:
Self-consumption indirectly encouraged
with lower FiTs, or limited injection rate:
Market Integration Model (<1000 kWp)
IT:
- Self-consumption bonus (all sizes)
OR
- Scambio Sul Posto (≈ net-metering) <
200 kWp
TR:
Net-metering < 500 kWp
ES:
Self-consumption allowed (<100 kW )
Q2 2013
Page 23
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Roadmap to dynamic PV Parity in the residential sector in 11 EU countries
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
 Competitiveness reached from 2012 until 2020 throughout Europe
 Under certain conditions
PV Parity Project
PV Parity Project
Q2Countries
2013
PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target
24
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Structure of Electricity prices
NETHERLANDS
ITALY
Residential electricity price breakdown
Residential electricity price breakdown
100%
100%
9%
16%
VAT
80%
17%
14%
60%
40%
Taxes and concessions
Grid tariffs
80%
11%
60%
29%
VAT
Taxes and concessions
40%
Grid tariffs
60%
20%
20%
Electricity generation
and sales price
Electricity generation
and sales price
0%
44%
0%
Q2 2013
Page 26
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
PV Competitiveness in Europe is fragile: residential sector example
Example in the residential sector
Hypothesis:
- Reasonably low cost of capital
- Reasonnably low PV System prices
- Self-consumption (~30%)
- Resale of excess electricity at current
market prices
- Etc.
France
2020
2018
2016
UK 2020 2018
2017
2019
2015
2016
2018
And…
2019 2020Germany
2014
2014
2015
2012
2014
2015
2017
2019
- Compensation of grid costs and taxes
for self-consumption part!
Spain
Italy
Favorable conditions (low WACC and prices)
Non-compensation of grid-costs
Source: « Connecting the Sun » – EPIA 2012
Q2 2013
Page 27
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Conditions for successful alternative new business models
 Right to self-consume
 Right to sell on wholesale market
 Compensation of taxes and grid costs
 Alternative to grid financing
 No additional grid connection that could reduce revenues
 Excess PV electricity can be sold on the electricity market
 Electricity market prices should remain significant
 Road to full competitiveness is complex and dangerous
Q2 2013
Page 28
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Connecting the Sun Report
www.connectingthesun.eu
Q2 2013
Page 29
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Market Scenarios towards 2017
Q2 2013
Page 30
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Market forecasts for Europe
Business as usual vs Policy-driven scenarios for Europe
Q2 2013
Page 31
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Market forecasts for Europe
2020 targets for PV have been already achieved in Europe
Q2 2013
Page 32
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Global market development
2 scenarios for global PV market development until 2017
Q2 2013
Page 33
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Europe will dominate Roof-top market, utility-scale PV will
develop outside Europe
Q2 2013
Page 34
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013-2017
www.epia.org
Q2 2013
Page 35
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
For more information of further details contact
Marie Latour m.latour@epia.org
European Photovoltaic Industry Association
Renewable Energy House
Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1040 Brussels - Belgium
T +32 (0)2 465 38 84 - F +32 (0)2 400 10 10
info@epia.org - www.epia.org
www.epia.org