Economic Research
Mexico
Banamex Survey – Slight adjustments in
analysts’ estimates
December 5, 2013
www.banorte.com
www.ixe.com.mx
@analisis_fundam

Banamex just published its bi-weekly survey of economic expectations

Analysts’ views on monetary policy remain relatively unchanged

GDP growth estimates for 2013 and 2014 showed marginal adjustments

Inflation forecast for year-end 2013 was revised upwards to 3.7%yoy
from 3.6%, while 2014 forecast remained at 3.9%
Delia Paredes
Economists expect November´s inflation at 0.92%m/m (Banorte-Ixe:
0.97%m/m)
Alejandro Cervantes

Gabriel Casillas
Chief Economist and Head of Research
gabriel.casillas@banorte.com
Executive Director of Economic Analysis
delia.paredes@banorte.com
Economist, Mexico
alejandro.cervantes@banorte.com
Miguel Calvo
Analysts’ views on monetary policy remain relatively unchanged. The
median of economists expect the central bank’s next move to be a 25bps rate
hike in March 2015. However, 5 out of the 24 analysts surveyed expect Banxico
to remain on hold for an indefinite period of time (Banorte-Ixe among them),
while 2 of them are penciling in a rate hike as soon as in 2H14. One more
expects a cut on the rate in 2H14.
Economist, Regional and Sectorial
miguel.calvo@banorte.com
GDP growth estimates for 2013 and 2014 showed marginal adjustments.
GDP growth estimates for 2013 increased to 1.3%yoy from 1.2%. Similarly,
consensus forecast for 2014 decreased to 3.47%yoy from 3.5% (range: 2.38% 4.1%).
Outlook for economic growth 2013
Outlook for economic growth 2014
% annual
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.5 3.5
3.5
% annual
4.1
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.4
3.9
3.1
3.0 2.7
2.5
2.7 2.7
3.8
2.7
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
1.5
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
1.5
1.4
1.0
1f-Jan-13 1f-Mar-13 1f-May-13 1f-Jul-13
3.8
4.0
4.0
3.7
2.3
2.0
1.5
3.9
4.0
4.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
3.5
3.5
3.4
1f-Jan-13
1f-Sep-13 1f-Nov-13
Source: Banorte-Ixe; with Banamex survey data
3.5
1f-Mar-13 1f-May-13
1f-Jul-13
3.5
1f-Sep-13 1f-Nov-13
Source: Banorte-Ixe; with Banamex survey data
Document for distribution among public
1
The inflation forecast for year-end 2013 was revised marginally upwards to
3.7%yoy from 3.6%yoy. Core CPI is expected to increase 2.77%yoy in 2013,
slightly below from Nov-1H survey. Meanwhile, the median inflation forecast
for next year remained at 3.9%yoy. Finally, economists expect November´s
inflation at 0.92%m/m (Banorte-Ixe: 0.97%m/m).
Headline inflation survey for 2013
Core inflation survey for 2013
% annual
% annual
4.0
3.5
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.8
3.7
3.7 3.7 3.7
3.7
3.4
3.7
3.5 3.5 3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3 3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1 3.1
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.9 2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.4
3.3
1f-Jan-13
1f-Mar-13 1f-May-13
1f-Jul-13
2.7
1f-Jan-13
1f-Sep-13 1f-Nov-13
Source: Banorte-Ixe; with Banamex survey data
2.9
1f-Mar-13 1f-May-13
1f-Jul-13
2.9
2.8
2.8 2.8
1f-Sep-13 1f-Nov-13
Source: Banorte-Ixe; with Banamex survey data
Consensus expects peso remains at 12.8 per U.S. dollar. Looking ahead,
analysts expect USD/MXN to end 2014 at 12.5 (range: 12.00-13.48) also
unchanged from the previous survey.
USDMXN prospects for 2013
USDMXN prospects for 2014
12.9
12.7
12.5
12.3
12.5
12.5
12.4 12.4
12.5
12.4
12.1
11.9
12.5
12.3
12.2
12.1
12.3
12.4
12.8 12.8
12.7 12.7 12.7
12.7
12.5
12.7
12.6
12.5
12.4 12.3
12.3
12.3
12.5
12.1
12.2
12.1
12.0
12.0
11.7
12.2
12.2 12.2
12.2 12.2
12.1
12.3
12.3 12.3
12.2
12.5 12.5
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.3
12.2
12.1
12.1
12.0
11.9
1f-Jan-13 1f-Mar-13 1f-May-13 1f-Jul-13 1f-Sep-13 1f-Nov-13
11.5
1f-Jan-13 1f-Mar-13 1f-May-13 1f-Jul-13 1f-Sep-13 1f-Nov-13
Source: Banorte-Ixe; with Banamex survey data
Source: Banorte-Ixe; with Banamex survey data
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an advice and/or
recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend.
2
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