KPMG INTERNATIONAL Confronting Complexity Research Findings and Insights kpmg.com SECTORS AND THEMES MAY 2011 Title set in univers 65 bold 33pt on 36pt leading, white Additional infor Univers 45 light 12pt on16pt leading kpmg.com Credits and authors in Univers 45 light 12 pt on14 pt leading Contents Introduction1 Global executive summary – a world striving for simplicity 2 The story from the research 4 Information management – problem or solution? 14 Managing increasing risk 16 Speed of innovation 20 The need for new skills 22 Government and regulation 24 Management actions – what works and what doesn’t 26 Conclusion27 Appendix – Country Reports 28 © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 1 Introduction In recent years we have seen profound changes in our economic, regulatory, political, and social environments. The result is a world of increasing complexity, where markets and systems are more interconnected, and where organizations must learn to navigate uncertainty, innovate, and adapt to changing realities as well as new market opportunities. More transactions are taking place across more borders, and the changing global regulatory environment is forcing businesses to react to ensure compliance while managing new risks. Technology is a hot-spot – it’s changing business models, improving processes, and opening new markets, but also creating volumes of new data that must be managed, supported, and secured. To gain greater insight into how increasing complexity is impacting business around the world, and how business leaders are responding, KPMG International conducted research globally, speaking with 1,400 senior corporate decision makers from 22 countries representing seven main business sectors. The research shows that the issue of complexity has risen to the top of the business agenda. Senior decision makers we spoke with recognize complexity as a critical issue that their companies must take significant actions to address. The vast majority of executives say complexity has increased in the last two years, and most expect it to increase over the next two years. These executives see complexity not only as a source of additional risk and cost, but most also believe that complexity is creating new opportunities. Opportunities to take a fresh look at their strategy, rethink their business model, and make operational improvements to gain competitive advantage. The following report provides an in-depth review of findings from the research along with insights from KPMG business leaders on what the findings mean and how businesses can address the critical issues raised. We hope the report will help you to better understand the causes and impact of complexity, and ways to integrate actions into your strategies that will not only help you to manage the challenges that lie ahead, but also to take better advantage of new opportunities. Timothy P. Flynn Chairman KPMG International © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 2 | C onf ron ting Com p lex it y Global executive summary – a world striving for simplicity The world is undoubtedly becoming a more complex place. The rise of new industrial powers adds new layers of complexity to global trade. New technology challenges conventional thinking as it provides radical new forms of production and communication. And in an attempt to exert control over these factors, to minimize the harm they can cause and bend them to the public good, new layers of regulation are added with increasing speed. For business, increasing complexity is not just an inconvenience. It can radically affect the way that businesses are managed, challenging profitability with new costs, adding new risks and creating opportunities. To measure the causes and impact of complexity KPMG commissioned one of its largest ever surveys among large companies around the world (40 percent of the companies have global revenues of US$1 billion or more). Between October and December 2010, we interviewed 1,400 senior executives. They included CEOs, CFOs, and finance directors in a wide range of industries in 22 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and the US. The initial results of this survey were released at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2011. This document is a more detailed review of the results, with additional insights, drawing on the practical experience of KPMG experts from all over the world. The key findings of the study are: • Rising complexity is an issue in all the countries surveyed, and in all sectors. But the experience of complexity differs around the world. Mature economies in Europe and the Americas are feeling the dual effects of recession and increased regulation, while developing economies and those in Asia-Pacific are focused on the accelerating speed of innovation and rising costs. • Information management stands out as both a cause of complexity and a solution. It is a challenge for modern, international corporations to understand the range of enterprises they control. Outdated IT systems are a significant barrier to managing complexity. • Complexity is not static. Its causes change as companies move through the business cycle and economies develop. New technologies lead companies to seek people with new skills, mergers and acquisitions lead to issues over information flows and management, and new regulations are a constant source of change. Companies need to be agile to cut through these layers of complexity and achieve growth. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 3 • The actions many companies take to deal with complexity are, at best, moderately effective. Improving information management, reorganizing the business or changing the approach to people management, are all popular responses to complexity. But less than half of the people who undertook them thought they were particularly effective. Least effective of all is direct lobbying of policymakers. • Opportunities do exist in complex situations. Most people think complexity provides opportunities for change, but companies in developing economies are more likely than those in mature economies to see complexity as an opportunity to develop new strategies and new products. • Broadly, there are two alternative strategies for dealing with complexity. Embrace it as a spur to innovation and change; or try and avoid it by keeping business processes simple. Executive teams need to decide which path is more appropriate for their companies. KPMG’s view In each contribution to this report from KPMG’s member firm professionals, the central theme focuses on stepping back from the operational side of the business and thinking more strategically about the nature of the organization. A clear view of the purpose of an organization, combined with an understanding of its overriding culture, provides a vital framework for coherent thinking. It gives guidance on important practical matters like the appetite for risk; decision making; how traditional functions need to change to meet new challenges and working with external partners. It’s easy to lose this clarity as companies get larger and more diverse. But for those who can read them, there are always signals that show where operations can be improved. Regulation is a strong signal that companies need to take action. Although it may appear to be an additional burden, a new regulation can help an organization to re-focus on its overall purpose. It can then examine what each part should be contributing to that purpose, and review the common platforms that are needed to manage risk and create value. It is not the nature of the complexity that a company faces that will determine its success; it is the extent to which the company can analyze the problem, identify the most effective way to address it, and then implement appropriate action. In doing so, the challenges of complexity can be turned into opportunities for growth. It is not the nature of the complexity that a company faces that will determine its success; it is the extent to which the company can analyze the problem, identify the most effective way to address it, and then implement appropriate action. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 4 | C onfron ting Com p lex it y 94% Complexity is a major issue for businesses globally – 94 percent of executives believe managing complexity is important to the success of their company. The story from the research – managing complexity is at the top of the business agenda Complexity is a major issue for businesses globally – 94 percent of executives believe managing complexity is important to the success of their company Managing complexity is important to my company’s success 94% Increasing complexity is one of the biggest challenges my company faces 6% 70% 0 20 Agree 30% 40 60 80 100 Disagree Source: KPMG International, 2010 Respondents were virtually unanimous on the importance of managing complexity, while 70 percent said that increasing complexity is one of their biggest challenges. For most of these people, the increase in complexity over the past two years has been substantial. Nearly half (44 percent) reported a ‘somewhat significant’ increase in complexity over this time, while for 28 percent there had been a ’very significant’ rise. The impact of complexity is global, but it is not felt everywhere to the same extent. Even those countries reporting the lowest increases in complexity (Denmark and the Netherlands) 52 percent and 44 percent respectively said that for them, complexity had increased very or somewhat significantly since 2008. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 5 “You have to make sure you understand what is making your business complex and understand the consequences before doing something too quickly.” HR Director, Transport/Logistics, Germany Net increase in complexity (%) Italy, China, South Korea and South Africa saw the largest net increase in complexity 80 70 70% 69% 68% 68% 64% 64% 63% 60 62% 61% 61% 58% 56% 56% 54% 52% 52% 48% 50 44% 44% 40% 40 30 20 10% 10 10% 0 Italy Singapore Japan France Mexico Denmark China Australia Germany Switzerland Sweden Netherlands South Korea US UK India Russia South Africa Brazil Canada Spain Ireland Net increase in complexity = (increased very significantly + increased somewhat significantly + increased minimally) – (decreased + stayed the same) Source: KPMG International, 2010 From a regional perspective, the data shows there is little to choose between the Asia-Pacific countries, where 33 percent of respondents reported a very significant increase in complexity, and the Americas, where 32 percent said the same thing. But in Europe, only 24 percent responded that complexity had increased very significantly for them. The difference is even more marked between the emerging economies of Brazil, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, China and India and the mature economies of Europe and North America. Among the emerging economies, 34 percent reported a very significant increase, while among the mature economies the figure is 26 percent. Estimating changes in the next two years, there is a similar pattern. Among the Asia-Pacific economies 24 percent expect a very significant increase in complexity, compared with 16 percent in the Americas and only 9 percent in Europe. In the emerging economies, the same view is held by 20 percent, compared with an average of only 13 percent among the mature economies. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 6 | C onfron ting Com p lex it y Net future increase in complexity (%) Australia, China, South Africa, Brazil and US expect the largest net increase in complexity 50 44% 43% 40 38% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34% 30 26% 21% 20 18% 16% 13% 10% 10 6% 4% 2% 0 0% -2% -8% -10 -12% -14% -20 Australia US Sweden Germany Spain Ireland China South Africa India Japan UK France Canada Denmark South Korea Netherlands Italy Brazil Singapore Switzerland Mexico Russia Net increase in complexity = (increased very significantly + increased somewhat significantly + increased minimally) – (decreased + stayed the same) Source: KPMG International, 2010 An industry view At a sector level, complexity affects all industries. More than 70 percent of executives from five key areas said that complexity had increased. Financial services has seen the greatest increase in complexity, with 44 percent of respondents reporting a significant increase in the past two years, and 33 percent saying the increase was very significant. Technology is next, with 47 percent seeing a significant increase, and 29 percent seeing a very significant increase. In each of these sectors, clear majorities expect complexity to continue to increase at a rapid rate over the next two years. Significant increases in complexity over the next two years are also predicted by around half the executives in the energy and natural resources, diversified industrials and consumer sectors. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 7 Source: KPMG International, 2010 Causes of complexity Globally, the most common cause of complexity is regulation, cited by 71 percent. Among the sectors, 78 percent of respondents in financial services saw regulation as the major cause in their industry and both regulation and government oversight were seen as significant causes of complexity by 75 percent across all sectors. At a regional level, 73 percent and 74 percent in the Americas and Europe, respectively, cited regulation as their primary cause of complexity. This compares with 65 percent in the Asia-Pacific countries. 71% Globally, the most common cause of complexity is regulation, cited by 71 percent. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 8 | C onfron ting Com p lex it y 84% Information management stands out in this survey as both an important cause of complexity and the most popular means of managing it. It was chosen as a solution to complexity by 84 percent of respondents. Identifying and ranking the causes of complexity Greatest causes of complexity Regulation (other than tax) 71% Information management 63% 42% 25% Government oversight 60% 21% Increased speed of innovation 59% 25% Tax policy Operating in more countries Doing mergers or acquisitions 57% 55% 50% 26% 16% 18% Source: KPMG International, 2010 One of the main concerns with regulation is its inconsistency across borders. Nearly 90 percent of respondents said that governments should work together to make the global regulatory environment less complex. Information management is key The second most frequently cited cause of complexity at a global and regional level was information management. In the Americas, 71 percent chose this as a key cause, rising to 80 percent in Brazil. In Europe this was the choice of 60 percent and among the AsiaPacific countries, it was the choice of 63 percent. Indian businesses were particularly concerned about information management, chosen as a cause by 72 percent. Information management stands out as both an important cause of complexity and the most popular means of managing it. 84 percent chose it as a solution to complexity. In both senses, this is consistent with managements working hard to understand exactly what is going on in increasingly complex and widely spread organizations. They often have to cope with incompatible and inadequate IT systems that need substantial investment to provide good quality information, both as an aid to good decision-making and a means of controlling the organization. At the same time, the pace of change in information management is dramatic, as with the rapid emergence of cloud computing as a possible solution to IT issues. Mixed views on speed of innovation Among the Asia-Pacific economies, 65 percent of respondents also cited speed of innovation as a primary cause of complexity, ranking it alongside regulation. Among the emerging economies, speed of innovation was marginally ahead of regulation as the main cause, chosen by 67 percent. This compares with only 57 percent of respondents from the mature economies. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 9 Factors causing complexity by region Regulation and information management a bigger concern in Americas and Europe. M&A, increased speed of innovation and operation in more countries a bigger concern in Asia-Pacific 80 75 74% 73% 71% 70% 70 65 65% 65% 63% 60% 60 58% 55% 57% 55 59% 58% 56% 61% 60% 57% 51% 50 45 42% 42% 40 Regulation (other than tax) Americas Information management Europe Government oversight Increased speed of innovation Tax policy Operating in more countries Doing mergers or acquisitions Asia-Pacific Americas – Brazil, Canada, Mexico, US Europe – Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK Asia-Pacific – Australia, China, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea Source: KPMG International, 2010 This is not to say that the speed of innovation is an issue limited to developing countries. Across all sectors, speed of innovation is identified as a leading cause of complexity by more than half of respondents. Moreover, the speed of innovation is expected to have a much greater impact on complexity going forward. 70 percent of respondents in developing economies and over 60 percent in the Americas and Asia-Pacific economies expect rapid innovation to increase its impact on their companies over the next two years. Challenges and opportunities One of the greatest long-term challenges is that complexity is not static. Its causes will likely change over time as economies develop and become more complex. This view is held particularly strongly in the AsiaPacific region, where 60 percent of respondents expected changes in the nature of complexity. The respondents expect these changes to be driven primarily by faster innovation. But where innovation leads, regulation will likely follow, so companies will find themselves dealing with successive waves of additional complexity as their markets develop. Today, three immediate challenges stand out. • More risks to manage • Increased costs • The need for new skills The greatest of these is a straightforward increase in the number of risks that need to be managed. Globally, 84 percent of respondents opted for increased risk as their main challenge, (87 percent in the Americas). The increase in the number of risks organizations manage is itself a cause of additional complexity. Many businesses routinely react to a new regulation by introducing a new compliance initiative. It does not take too long before the number of overlapping initiatives is so great that the sheer complexity of the compliance arrangements within an organization is itself a new source of risk. We look at this in more detail in the section on managing risk. Closely linked to risk is increased cost. Globally, 78 percent of respondents thought that this was the principal challenge of complexity. This rose to 88 percent in the Asia-Pacific economies. The impact on cost was particularly strong in China (93 percent), Japan (90 percent), India (86 percent). In the UK the figure was 86 percent which, alone among the European nations, chose increasing costs as the principal challenge. The third most frequently identified challenge was the availability of new skills. This seems to correlate closely with those economies where speed of innovation is a strong cause of © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 10 | C onfro ntin g Co m pl ex it y Challenges of complexity by region More new skills needed and a greater cost in Asia-Pacific due to complexity 100 90 80 88% 87% 84% 82% 84% 82% 79% 73% 70% 70 71% 66% 69% 60% 60 64% 66% 63% 64% 55% 54% 50 55% 51% 40 More risks to manage Americas Increased cost Europe Need new skills More difficult to implement change More difficult to compete More difficult to make management decisions Deals and transactions take more time Asia-Pacific Source: KPMG International, 2010 complexity. This is true of Brazil (where 92 percent identified the need for new skills as a major challenge), Japan (90 percent) and China (92 percent). It is also a major factor for the technology sector, where more than 80 percent say it is a significant challenge. Creating new opportunities Increasing complexity is also a source of new opportunities. Three-quarters of all respondents agreed that opportunities can arise from complexity, with gaining competitive advantage and creating new and better strategies as the two most common opportunities identified. There were some interesting alternative views, however. Among German respondents, for example, 40 percent did not think there were opportunities to be had. Those who did see advantages were focused mainly on the need for new products. At a regional level, there was a slightly higher tendency to see new opportunities in Asia-Pacific and the Americas (78 percent and 79 percent, respectively, compared to 69 percent for Europe). But the emerging economies were significantly more positive, with 81 percent seeing opportunities compared with 72 percent for the mature economies. Large majorities in Brazil, Mexico, India and China see complexity as a stimulus to improve existing corporate strategies or create new and better ones. optimistic about new opportunities. Their optimism might be a reaction to the recession, which hit these economies particularly hard. All told, at least 70 percent of respondents said complexity can create opportunities for: • Gaining competitive advantage • Creating new and better strategies • Expanding into new markets • Improving efficiency Among the more mature economies, the Irish, Spanish and Japanese were most “Keep an open eye on all the new complexities that occur in some countries; if you are the first to resolve them you will have an advantage on the challenger.” Consumer Market respondent, Germany © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o mp l exi t y | 11 Complexity can create new opportunities Opportunities created by complexity Gain competitive advantage 6% 73% 72% Create new and better strategies 20% Expand into new markets 70% Make my company more efficient 70% 74% Create new products 60% Focus our existing business strategy Yes No 58% Don’t know/Can’t say Source: KPMG International, 2010 The response from business – actions to address the challenge Businesses around the world are working hard to meet the challenges of increased complexity. Respondents from all regions, all sectors and both emerging and mature economies chose better management of information as their main response. This perhaps explains the proliferation of solutions being developed for business intelligence, data analytics and cloud computing. Reorganizing all or part of the business came second, chosen by 70 percent of the global sample and, again, a popular response across all regions and sectors. It was particularly popular among respondents who also said that they had experienced a very significant increase in complexity over the past two years. 81 percent of this group said that their response was some form of business reorganization. Businesses are addressing complexity in a variety of ways ... with mixed success* Actions taken to address complexity Improved information management 84% Reorganized all or part of your business 70% 53% Significantly changed approach to human resources 49% Invested in new countries or geographies 16% 30% 47% 51% Influenced regulation or public policy 46% 54% Did mergers or acquisitions 45% 55% 42% Outsourced functions 58% Effectiveness of the actions 44% 48% 8% 45% 47% 9% 39% 49% 43% 29% 42% 48% 43% 34% Yes Very effective No Somewhat effective 12% 15% 23% 42% 49% 15% 17% Minimally effective *Due to rounding, graphs may not add up to 100% Source: KPMG International, 2010 © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 12 | C onfron ting Com p lex it y These options may have been the most popular, but there is some doubt as to how effective they have been. Around half of respondents whose organizations tried improving information management or business reorganization said that their actions had been only moderately effective in solving their problems. A need for new skills The impact of the third most popular option, changing the approach to human resources, was equally mixed. Although this was a favored option for 53 percent of respondents, overall it was seen as very effective by only 39 percent. The least effective option was to try to influence regulation or public policy directly through lobbying or other representations. However, this was a popular option in financial services and energy and natural resources. It was also relatively popular in the Asia-Pacific countries, where 53 percent chose it as an option, compared with 47 percent in the Americas and 42 percent in Europe. the complexity that an organization has to manage. Despite this enthusiasm, nearly a quarter of respondents said that direct representations were minimally effective in controlling complexity, and only 29 percent were prepared to say they were very effective. Future plans to meet the challenge of complexity Just over half of the people interviewed expected that in the next two years their companies would be taking different or additional actions to deal with complexity. But responses varied significantly between countries. Outsourcing functions was popular as an option in China, Japan, Brazil, Russia and Ireland, but it has a mixed following among other countries, with only 34 percent declaring it a very effective response. These results show that simply taking on new tasks or outsourcing functions to respond to complexity is not a guarantee of success. If these actions are not integrated into the existing business model, there are likely to be overlaps, duplications and conflicting initiatives. These, in turn will increase The most active countries looking forward are South Africa, where 76 percent expect to increase or change their activity, Ireland where the figure was 74 percent, and the US with 71 percent. At the other end of the spectrum, the countries where companies are least likely to change or increase their anti-complexity activity are Italy, where 56 percent expected no change, the Netherlands where the figure was 66 percent and Spain, with 68 percent. Improving information management is the number one action taken across all market sectors Market sector (%) Actions taken Overall Financial services Technology Communication media Consumer Chemicals and pharmaceuticals Diversified industrials Energy and natural resources Improved information management 84 83 88 85 83 81 82 82 Reorganized all or part of your business 70 69 78 76 65 67 76 65 Significantly changed approach to human resources 53 51 57 44 54 54 58 54 Invested in new countries or geographies 49 44 60 40 45 58 52 44 Influenced regulation or public policy 46 55 43 47 40 40 40 53 Did mergers or acquistions 45 41 51 36 44 50 48 43 Outsourced functions 42 44 50 49 38 39 44 39 Source: KPMG International, 2010 © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o mp l exi t y | 13 Actions to address complexity, in order of importance Action to address complexity over the past 2 years Action to address complexity over the next 2 years Improved information management Improve information management Reorganized all or part of your business Reorganize all or part of your business Significantly changed approach to human resources Significantly change approach to human resources Invested in new countries or geographies Do mergers and acquisitions Influenced regulation or public policy Invest in new countries or geographies Did mergers or acquisitions Outsource functions Outsourced functions Try to influence regulation or public policy Source: KPMG International, 2010 Again, the most popular action by a long way is improving information management, followed by reorganizing all or part of the business, and changing the approach to human resources. The option of doing more mergers and acquisitions is proving relatively more attractive, particularly among emerging economies, while the option of seeking to influence regulation directly is becoming even less popular. Next steps Although there are clear differences in the impact of complexity on different countries, regions and business sectors, there is consistency in the importance decision-makers place on it and in the actions they are taking to address it. It is also clear that these actions have met with limited success so far. There is wide agreement on the need for new and better approaches. In the face of complexity, leadership needs to be a management priority. Leaders need to ask themselves the following: • What are the specific causes of complexity facing my business and industry? • How can I best address the challenges of complexity? • How can I use our knowledge and insight into complexity to drive opportunity creation and growth? • How do we ensure that our company is managing these responsibilities effectively today, while also planning for the complexity of tomorrow? In the rest of this report, we look more closely at some of the key themes arising from our research and offer some thoughts on how companies may choose to meet the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities it presents. 59% Looking ahead to the next two years, just over half of the people interviewed expected that their companies would be taking different or additional actions to deal with complexity. But there was a significant variation between countries. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 14 | C onfron ting Com p lex it y Information management – problem or solution? If regulation, speed of innovation and the economic environment are the three main external causes of complexity, the three main internal causes are managing information, operating in multiple countries and the effects of mergers and acquisitions on internal organization. The implications of this are profound. This report suggests that companies are struggling to find out what is happening in their own organizations, either through lack of good quality data, inconsistent information, or through problems interpreting what they have. Among these, the only element identified as both a cause of complexity and a method of dealing with it is managing information. It is the most popular technique for dealing with complexity, both now and in the next two years, in all regions and in all sectors. Short versus long term This idea is supported by the results of another KPMG survey, (A New Role for New Times, KPMG and CFO Research, 2011), which examines the role of the chief financial officer (CFO) and the finance department in a modern international corporation. 59% to take different or additional actions to address complexity Improving information management (73%) and reorganizing all or part of your business (59%) the most important future actions Additional or different actions to address complexity over the next two years Improve information management 73% Reorganize all or part of your business 11% 59% Significantly change approach to human resources 46% Do mergers and acquisitions 31% Yes 59% No Don’t know/Can’t say 43% Invest in new countries or geographies 42% Outsource functions 41% Try to influence regulation or public policy 40% None of these 5% Source: KPMG International, 2010 © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o mp l exi t y | 15 The two greatest challenges cited by the CFOs interviewed are the internal complexity of their organizations and difficulties in finding and using an effective IT system that is able to collect, analyze and present the information needed. Problems with IT systems frequently arise because executives find themselves needing more and better information from systems that were not designed to carry such a burden. This is especially common in organizations that have been through a large M&A program and have to cope with several different legacy systems. The only long-term answer to this problem is a complete structural review of the system. Short-term fixes can help for a while, and some KPMG teams have been able to reduce 250-page management information packs to 50-60 pages by careful selection and analysis of the information available. But modern organizations need modern information systems. To better obtain the benefits of an accurate and comprehensive view of a company’s performance, there is often little alternative to investing in proper integration of information management systems to create a common, reliable and effective platform. Embedding controls at the right level Focusing on managing information suggests a widespread need to develop an accurate central view of the risks and performance of an organization. It is a short step from here to developing centralized controls in the belief that these are an effective method of solving problems. However, although an accurate central view is clearly important, KPMG’s experience shows that heavily centralized controls are rarely the most effective way to manage a diverse, multinational enterprise. The reality is that in a modern corporation it simply may not be possible or even desirable to run things from the center with good IT, when agility and responsiveness to complex, rapidly changing markets is what is really needed. KPMG subject matter experts talk instead of embedding best practice at the lowest possible level, whether this is in a tax, finance, or risk management function, or in an operational department. This view was expressed eloquently by a Russian finance director in the consumer sector, whose comment on complexity was, “Every single employee should be responsible for what they do. Give them the power to make decisions on what they specialize in, as if every member of staff owns the company they work for. Because, today, even if you know what to do and that this is the right thing to do, you still need approval from a director or manager who may not be competent on that issue.” Although an accurate central view is clearly important, KPMG’s experience shows that heavily centralized controls are rarely the most effective way to manage a diverse, multinational enterprise. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 16 | C onfron ting Com p lex it y Managing increasing risk A large majority of the businesses polled in this survey feel the effects of increased complexity primarily through an increase in the number of risks they have to manage. As we noted earlier, a common response to identifying a new risk is to create a new program to handle it. It doesn’t take long before the number of programs is itself a new cause of complexity, not least because these programs often overlap and, once in place, it can be very difficult to remove or consolidate them. This is not just a problem of organization, it can be a major contributor to costs. A survey carried out for KPMG in September 2009 (The Convergence Challenge, KPMG and EIU, 2010) revealed that 50 percent of respondents thought governance, risk and compliance costs account for 5 percent of overall revenues, while for 20 percent they were as high as one-tenth. These costs might not be a significant problem if they were seen to be providing a good return on investment. But only one-third said they were able to see this as an investment. For the rest, it was simply a (rising) cost of doing business. Governance, risk and compliance convergence and integration In larger companies, especially when highly regulated, the expansion of governance, risk and compliance activity has created many large, unwieldy and often autonomous risk and control functions. It is not uncommon to have dozens of committees dealing with different aspects of risk, many of them overlapping yet not communicating. In the midst of this bureaucracy and duplication, many organizations are drowning in a sea of their own complexity. They are unable to distinguish the critical business risks at both the group and entity level, and may come to mistrust some of the business intelligence they are receiving. One approach to resolve this problem is to align and converge the organization’s governance, risk and compliance functions and processes (i.e. internal audit, regulatory compliance, operational risk, information security, and risk management) to help provide increased confidence in, and transparency of, information. Once risk and compliance functions and process silos are removed, the organization can gain broader insight and can foster improved decision-making, choosing how and where they want to assume greater risk to enhance performance. An increasingly common strategy for dealing with the complexity of governance, risk and compliance is to tackle head-on the difficult task of converging or integrating risk management, creating simpler, more effective governance and information management structures. Organizations are viewing enterprisewide risk management more strategically, while also looking to draw more efficiency out of existing risk and control functions. This combination results in pre-existing silos being broken down from a risk information perspective (risk convergence), allowing for more efficient identification and management of risk, including emerging risks. Although this may sound logical and practical, it can meet with some resistance from the risk and control functions who may not fully understand the impact on their work. The Convergence Challenge found that 44 percent of respondents thought simple resistance to change was the largest single barrier to greater convergence of governance, risk and compliance. These efforts therefore © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 17 “Most countries’ tax authorities purport to follow the OECD transfer pricing guidelines, but each authority interprets the guidance differently. Everyone likes it, but everyone has their own take on how it should be done.” Steven Fortier, Global Head of Transfer Pricing, KPMG International require senior management support and careful consideration to change management. It needs to be clear to everyone in the risk and control functions that the goal is to identify opportunities to share risk information more efficiently, and to leverage and coordinate activities and resources. The business is no longer accepting multiple requests to the same people from various risk and control oversight functions, asking for similar information. This approach will ultimately require the risk and control functions to coordinate activities from risk assessment and planning through to execution of work and managing issues. To allow this, there will need to be agreement of guiding principles by all stakeholders to establish protocols and to assist in decision making throughout the risk convergence initiative. These guiding principles may include statements related to the establishment of a common risk language, simplification of processes, protocols for working together and others. They will set the basis for improved cooperation across functions. Clear establishment of roles and responsibilities is critical in any risk convergence initiative along with a transparent change management plan to embed the right behavior in people and processes. With these functions working in harmony and by leveraging appropriate technology to manage risk information, an organization should be able to combine the necessary risk oversight with continuously improved performance. But, effective though it is, risk convergence is not an easy process, and many companies have tried alternative methods of reducing complexity. Popular options are reorganization and transformation. Reorganization as a solution to increased risk Respondents to the complexity survey chose reorganizing the business as the second most popular method of dealing with complexity, after improving information management. Seven out of 10 respondents to the survey said they had already done this, and a clear majority expect to do this within the next two years. It is likely that many of the organizations that were polled in the study had taken part in the very active mergers and acquisitions market leading up to 2008, and are still dealing with the issues raised by bringing together separate businesses and groups of people. Mergers and acquisitions were clearly identified as a cause of complexity by 50 percent of respondents. It does not take much thought to conclude that bringing together businesses from different countries, as many companies were doing in a response to the boom in international trading opportunities, would present formidable organizational difficulties. But, like information management, mergers and acquisitions were cited both as a cause and a solution for complexity. More surprising still, M&A was thought to be a good solution to the problem, and said by 43 percent to be very effective. Improved integration techniques For insight on this, it is helpful to turn to KPMG’s long-running series of studies on post-merger integration techniques. This survey has been conducted every second year since 2000, and has charted a steady rise in the level of professionalism, the understanding of organizational problems and the standardization of methods applied to large-scale reorganizations of business. Supply chain reorganization One area in which we have seen direct evidence of a widespread move to reduce complexity through reorganization is in international supply chains. This comes from the most recent of KPMG’s regular surveys of global manufacturing. Published in late 2010, it showed clearly that large companies are actively reorganizing their supply chains specifically to reduce cost and risk. The focus for many was on cutting down the number of suppliers they deal with, and on taking the time and trouble to check the financial health of this reduced number to cut down the risk of a failure, which might affect the whole group. Although cost reduction was a declared aim of these reorganizations, many conceded that an excessive concentration on cost reductions in the past had damaged relationships with important suppliers. As a direct consequence, risk had increased, either through poorer quality, late deliveries, less co-operation on product development or a mixture of all three. By choosing instead to deal with fewer suppliers, but to take time to build improved relations of trust between supplier and principal, these organizations have sought to simplify their operations and improve management of risk through reorganization. Many have conceded that pursuing the lowest possible cost in all cases carries too high a risk, and have opted to take a broader, longer-term view of cost management in the expectation of better long-term results. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 18 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Risk management still a challenge An underlying theme of this survey is that executives globally see complexity as a source of additional risk that they must manage. They recognize that poor risk management in increasingly complex environments has contributed both to the international financial crisis of the late 2000s and to more industry-specific incidents, at great cost to all involved. KPMG recently sponsored a research report in cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit that examined the post-recession role of risk management in international organizations (Fall Guys – Risk Management in the Front Line – KPMG/ACE/EIU 2010). The key findings from this research were that: • Strategic risk management remains an immature activity in many companies • Only a minority of companies involve risk functions in key business decisions • There is limited appetite for investment in the risk function • Risk functions have increased in authority, but there is a danger that this will not be a permanent change; and • There are doubts about the level of risk expertise among non-executive directors. So has anything really changed in the last couple of years? While these findings may suggest not, KPMG member firm practitioners’ experience in this area suggests that some companies are working hard to embed sophisticated risk management in their decision-making. The goal is to turn risk, or at least the effective management of risk, into a positive advantage that can generate value. These organizations view risk as an issue that affects everyone, not the sole responsibility of a risk management department. People who can clearly articulate and quantify the risks they face and their probable impact on performance are likely to make better business decisions. The latest study, to be published later in 2011, reaffirms some key lessons from previous surveys; that successful integrations/reorganizations are done fast, they integrate the new/reorganized business completely, and they are planned very thoroughly in advance. In terms of complexity, the most difficult issue that arises, and one which consistently receives less attention in the due diligence phase, is merging different cultures. In extreme cases, problems in getting people to understand and work with each other can prove to be a deal breaker, either because key people leave, or because the accumulated problems of communicating effectively become overwhelming. There is further evidence of this problem in the complexity survey, where 53 percent of respondents said they had made significant changes in their approach to human resources in an attempt to deal with complexity, but only 39 percent were prepared to say that this had been very effective. Both surveys suggest that there has been much improvement in the techniques of business reorganization, and that using these techniques can bring a new logic and structure to complex organizations that can improve their performance. But both also suggest that there is work still to be done on the effective management of cultural complexity, and that this has become more urgent as businesses expand further beyond their national borders. Transformation of traditional functions Major reorganizations require good information and vision, and it is in pursuit of these that many organizations have taken an alternative route to better management of risk and cost – transformation of core functions like finance and tax from their traditional transactional role into active providers of insight and value. KPMG’s forthcoming survey of CFOs shows that finance departments, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure to provide high-quality business analysis of the information that they routinely collect. Typically, a finance department that yesterday might have spent 15 percent of its time on supporting decision making for value creation, 30 percent of its time on financial controls to protect value and 55 percent of its time on transactional processing, will today be expected to spend 50 percent of its time on value creation, and only 20 percent on processing transactions, often at a much reduced cost to the organization. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o mp l exi t y | 19 “The answer for many organizations is to take their approach to risk back to basics, review compliance in the light of how their business looks today, and rebuild on a more rational basis.” Mike Nolan, Global Head of Risk and Compliance Services , KPMG International This is clearly a major challenge for CFOs – the need to provide an accurate, understandable picture of what is happening in increasingly complex organizations, and to interpret it for opportunities, while making sure that the core transactional work of the function is still being done flawlessly. But among participants in KPMG’s CFO survey, just under half said they were already playing a larger role in business strategy than five years ago, and 62 percent expected to increase this part of their work in the next five years. A CFO from Singapore commented, “This role means to actively participate in decision making, providing high-quality analysis that is fact-based and objective. By and large finance is able to play this role, but it struggles with catching up with the constantly changing environment.” There are many techniques for managing this kind of transformation within large organizations, but no one method that is guaranteed to provide a perfect result every time. In most instances, the basic requirements of those driving these programs are a deep understanding of the organization’s goals and business, a strong adherence to processes and policies, and, in many cases, the ability to acquire a new and different set of skills. CFOs say their finance functions play a much larger role in decision-making now than they did five years ago, and they expect this involvement to increase in the future 70 62% 60 50 49% 40 38% 36% 30 20 12% 10 2% 0 Five years ago Smaller role Source: KPMG CFO survey 2011 Similar role Five years from now Larger role This is clearly a major challenge for CFOs – the need to provide an accurate, understandable picture of what is happening in increasingly complex organizations, and to interpret it for opportunities, while making sure that the core transactional work of the function is still being done flawlessly. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 20 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Speed of innovation Although the pace of change is increasing for all respondents, speed of innovation is a major cause of complexity for the emerging economies. In China and Brazil, it is cited as the number one cause, ahead of regulation or tax issues. In India, it is second only to information management, and in Mexico it comes second after tax policy. Among the mature economies, speed of innovation is the top cause of complexity for Japanese businesses. But elsewhere, in the US, Germany, Canada and the UK, for example, it comes well down the list, after regulation and information management. For the mature economies, this may say more about the relative importance of regulation than it does about speed of innovation as a cause of complexity. Nevertheless, innovation is being used throughout the world as a stimulus for new structures, new thinking and new solutions to problems. On one level, companies in emerging economies are finding growth opportunities driven by demographics. In many cases, they already have much larger, faster growing populations than in the developed world. This rapidly growing domestic market means that organizations that can develop efficient manufacturing and distribution processes can gain an advantage. It requires continuous innovation to exploit this opportunity, adapting existing products and solutions to local requirements. This is a challenge that European companies know well. One German respondent said, “You must keep an open eye on all the new complexities that may occur in your countries; if you are the first to resolve them you will have an advantage over your challenger.” A Swiss CFO added, “Keep your ears open, everything is changing very fast. It’s death for those not adapting their business.” In this environment, the drive for growth drives relentless innovation. On another level, many global manufacturing firms are locating research and development centers in emerging economies. This is to take advantage of a lower-cost base and the availability of highly skilled workers to ensure that products and services meet local customer needs. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 21 A premium on agility Most emerging markets suit highly diverse conglomerates. These are the companies best able to adapt to fastchanging opportunities in the drive to grow. Indeed, they have to do so, which in turn places a premium on agility and innovation. Techniques for developing these qualities vary widely. One Korean respondent spoke proudly of the “Intrapreneuriat” which his company had established as a successful focus for entrepreneurial thinking within the company. This formalized approach can work very well in one company, but may not be suitable for those with a different culture. For any company, harnessing the creativity and imagination of employees is necessary to remain competitive. This is clearly a complex task. It could involve adapting technology to create new products, reducing the cost of products to appeal to markets in emerging economies, or adapting products and solutions to meet new regulations. The key to managing innovation is to maintain an open and receptive policy on new ideas, and to avoid internal complexities that might stifle or divert creativity. Those who get this right will succeed. “Businesses in emerging economies are finding greater growth opportunities and acting upon them more quickly than those in the developing world. The companies that are most successful have efficient manufacturing and distribution processes that deliver profitable, low-cost products and solutions. This requires continuous innovation to adapt existing products and solutions to local requirements.” Adam Bates, Partner, Risk and Compliance Services, KPMG LLP (UK) © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 22 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Changing demographics presents a number of challenges for human resources: businesses will have to adopt new approaches to recruitment. The need for new skills Economies in a period of rapid technological change will naturally be hungry for people with the necessary new skills to help build and maintain a competitive advantage. In this survey, speed of innovation is identified as a leading cause of complexity in Brazil, Mexico, China and India, so it’s not unreasonable that these countries should also identify the need for new skills as a top priority. If we compare emerging with mature economies, the need for new skills is identified as a major challenge by 81 percent and 76 percent respectively. It is interesting that the gap between the two is not wider. In Japan, for example, the need for new skills is rated as the top challenge of complexity, chosen by 90 percent of respondents, alongside increased costs. In Europe and North America the figures are between 70 percent and 80 percent. Demographic changes driving changing labor force Part of this may be simply due to the pace of technological change in these countries, but for further insight it is helpful to look at some of the work on demographic change that is being done by Bernard Salt, a KPMG partner in Australia who has specialized in analyzing the global impact on business of changes in population. His work on population trends in large economies has identified a widespread decline in the rate of growth in numbers of active working age people (defined as 15–64 years of age) in these countries. Aging populations and declining birth rates have meant that, taking Japan once again as an example, the number of Japanese working age people began to fall in 1994 and has fallen every year since then. In France, the rate of growth has declined substantially from the peaks of the 1970s and 1980s, and is expected to tip into a net reduction in the working age population by 2012. China is expected to reach the same point in 2016. India does not have the same problem. Its relatively young population is expected to provide growth in the number of working age people for decades to come. But in the UK and the US, declines in the growth of the indigenous population have been overcome only by large-scale immigration; in the UK, migrants have come largely from former colonies and from the EU, and in the US they have come from Latin America. For businesses faced with a labor force where the average age is steadily rising, there may be a desire to bring in new people with fresh skills and different ideas. If these people are not available in the domestic workforce, then this is clearly going to be easier to do in countries where there is a tradition of immigration to fall back on, as in the US and the UK. As to where these people might come from, India would seem to be a good place to look. UN statistics suggest that over the past four years, around © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 23 14 million working age people a year have been added to the Indian workforce. These changing demographics present a number of challenges for human resources. Businesses will have to adopt new approaches to recruitment and start to look outside their traditional marketplaces for resources. A more proactive and flexible approach to workforce planning may be required. The development of new skill sets among existing workforces will also become more important. Finally, for many countries it appears that the war for talent is imminent, which means attracting and retaining resources will become a business priority. The results of Bernard Salt’s research were published as The Global Skills Convergence. This included interviews with senior HR executives in several global companies. Their preferences for the ideal corporate recruit are summarized in the table below, and set alongside their actual experiences of recruiting among “Generation Y,” people coming into the workforce in the mid-2000s. The differences between the two may go some way to explain the problems businesses are having in filling their need for new skills. Ideal Corporate Citizen Reality of Generation Y Age 38-42 Age 15-30 Agreeable or moveable spouse/partner No relationship commitments Law degree and business degree, e.g. MBA No mortgage, deferrable debt Second language as well as English Widely travelled, possibly second language May have lived abroad in youth Backpacker, gap year Experience in running a division or program Possibly involved in volunteer work abroad Possesses and employs cultural sensitivity Exposure to different cultures via technology Possibly spent time in military Children of rich, guilty and indulgent parents “Known” within the industry Moves frequently between jobs Technically excellent Prefers autonomy to corporate direction “Businesses will have to adopt new approaches to recruitment and start to look outside their traditional marketplaces for resources.” Rachel Campbell, Global Head of People, Performance and Culture, KPMG International © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 24 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Government and regulation For companies in Europe and the Americas, particularly the more mature economies, regulation is the number one cause of complexity. Corporate leaders talk of the problems of dealing with a constant stream of new legislation, with less and less time for effective preparation. “Increasing regulation can be a catalyst for companies to focus on areas of their business that could operate more efficiently and create greater value. The tax function is a good example. As businesses globalize, they seek tax-efficient ways to expand. At the same time more tax authorities are requesting evidence that tax decisions are made in accordance with clear corporate governance guidelines. This provides the tax function with a need and an opportunity to adopt better processes, new controls and improved use of technology to feed their increasing need for accurate and up-to-date information.” Loughlin Hickey, Global Head of Tax, KPMG International For companies in the Asia-Pacific region, regulation remains a major cause of complexity, but it is matched by speed of innovation. Among the major emerging economies – Brazil, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, China and India regulation is the number one cause of complexity. This suggests that while companies in these countries will share some of the concerns of their US and European competitors over increased government activity, more of their energies are being spent working out how to stay ahead of the new ideas, products and competitors in their markets. These results are entirely consistent with the conclusions of a 2009 KPMG survey, Never catch a falling knife, which examined how companies around the world reacted to recession. It found that while European and North American companies tended to see the problems of recession as a matter for governments, requiring more regulation and oversight to solve them, companies in other parts of the world saw recession as an opportunity to review practices and find a new path to growth. Regulation is, however, a fast-developing field. Several of the most impressive economic success stories of the past decade have been accompanied by common complaints. Firstly, that legal systems are not sufficiently reliable for international trade, and secondly that labor, product quality or health and safety legislation is undeveloped in comparison with international standards. The survey indicates that a majority of the Asia-Pacific and emerging economies believe that speed of innovation could become their biggest cause of complexity in the next two years. However, it is possible that the demands of consumers in other countries, combined with increasing international cooperation on financial regulation, tax legislation and environmental issues, may drive regulation to the top of their list. Regulation as a catalyst for improvement Increasing regulation may appear to present nothing but problems for business, but regulation is created to deal with specific problems. For many businesses, the complexity that new regulations generate can be used as a catalyst to identify and focus on areas of the operation that are not working efficiently and therefore need close attention. This problem of inefficient operation arises when different parts of the business develop different perspectives on what they are meant to achieve. They start to move apart, working in isolation. The imposition of an additional external control may help an organization to refocus on its overall purpose, examining what each part should be contributing to that purpose, and reviewing the common platforms needed for managing risk and creating value. Tax is a good example. As businesses have globalized, they have sought taxefficient ways to expand. Governments have responded with tax legislation designed to protect the tax base – whether through anti-avoidance laws or the development of greater focus on © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 25 transaction based taxes and transfer pricing. This has made the global tax environment more complex and, as a result, tax authorities have developed new methods of audit, looking more closely at the underlying financial and data systems companies use, and their approach to tax processes and controls. At the same time, globalization has meant businesses have come into contact with more and increasingly complex tax regulatory environments in new and unfamiliar countries. This creates additional risk that has to be managed. This new range of pressures may also generate a positive response, as tax functions take the opportunity to argue successfully for better processes, new controls and improved use of technology to feed their increasing need for accurate and up-to-date information. This additional complexity may even provide opportunities to create value. To take one very common example, examining VAT processes in response to increasing penalties may often reveal inefficiencies of cash management which, if corrected, will produce cash flow benefits while improving compliance. Forward-thinking tax functions are using complexity to make a step change in the way they position themselves for the future and address their particular challenges. The rise of global regulation The changing international policy on tax is also a good example of the increase in cross-border regulation that is driving complexity for globalized businesses. European companies already have some experience of this through the rising influence of EU directives in most areas of business. But it is a phenomenon that is expanding across the world as governments improve their cooperation on financial regulation, environmental controls, health and safety issues, security and many other areas. Although this forces businesses into an almost constant process of reviewing and reorganizing their compliance functions, there are signs in the survey that respondents appreciate the work that governments are doing to harmonize regulation, and want it to continue. Complexity is clearly seen as an issue for governments as well as companies, and while 81 percent agree that regulation needs to be less complex, 89 percent said that governments should work together to achieve this goal. This is not a simple task. One respondent familiar with the work of the EU pointed out that EU directives are not law, and need to be incorporated into the national law of the member states before they can be implemented. “Because there are so many different languages in the EU,” he said, “each country seems to take something different out of the directive. This is a hugely complex issue, and it has a major effect on costs. In some countries, the cost of these directives is paid by the consumer. In some it is defined by the government and in others it is paid by industry. It is different in each country, and very difficult.” © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 26 | C PAYING on fron ting THE Com BILLp lex it y Management actions – what works and what doesn’t The companies polled for this survey are taking complexity very seriously. The effort required for large-scale business reorganizations is huge. Nevertheless, 70 percent of respondents said that they had done this in the past two years to help deal with complexity, and it remains a favored option for the immediate future. Reorganization is seen as the most effective technique for managing complexity, but only marginally and this doesn’t include outsourcing. Only 42 percent said they had outsourced functions to deal with complexity in the past two years, and this was thought to be very effective by only 34 percent. Does lobbying ever work? The least effective action was trying to influence public policy, despite the significant impact that regulation has on increasing complexity. While direct interaction with policymakers may not be an easy task, businesses are an important source of input and expertise to government in helping to find more efficient ways of doing business. Business leaders may, therefore, need to provide greater clarity of purpose around their operations to help in shaping policies and regulations that contribute to economic well-being. Rational risk management This clarity of purpose is also a necessary foundation for the rationalization of risk management (including compliance risk) which many businesses now believe is necessary. This is one of the more challenging routes to reducing complexity since it often involves reducing the influence of people who are responsible for ensuring regulatory compliance in their part of the organization. To win support for rationalization, it is important to have a clearly stated business purpose that can be translated into an equally clear and defendable appetite for risk. Together with a good set of figures outlining the cost of compliance within a company (with the corresponding return on investment), it becomes substantially easier to make the necessary arguments for change. A US management school professor summarized the benefits very clearly. “If something is more complex, it is just more risky. But when companies go beyond that to actively manage unnecessary complexity out of their business processes… they benefit not only from lower risk, but also higher efficiency and agility.” Avoid or embrace The specific actions mentioned in this report can clearly have an impact on how complexity affects an organization. Some of them, like improving information management, are simply best practice in operation. But even the most effective measure is only thought to work well by a minority of the people polled, and a clear majority feels that none of these options really helps to manage or reduce complexity. There is a view, which emerges from the in-depth interviews with respondents and also from KPMG’s experience, that the only really effective way to manage complexity is either to avoid it as far as is possible or to embrace it. Seeking simplicity There are organizations in every sector that have done well by keeping their business models simple. They do what they know, provide a valued set of goods or services in an efficient way, and avoid markets they don’t understand. These organizations deal with externally imposed complexity as best they can, but they place a huge premium on internal simplicity and will go to some lengths to preserve it. Many of the reorganizations that KPMG has assisted are designed to help simplify business models that have moved too far from the core. One Irish strategy director captured this approach. “I think first of all you have to understand what is complex – you have to identify it and break it down into parts,” he said. “You then have to have a business strategy which will translate into a tactical plan that breaks down and simplifies processes. The end result is simplification.” His thoughts were echoed by a finance director from India whose comment was,“ Be as simple as possible in all actions. Don’t try to make anything complex, and be transparent.” © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 27 “Many of the more successful organizations have done well by keeping their business models simple. It is a state of mind, only doing things that you understand really well – only doing what you know.” Alan Buckle, Global Head of Advisory Services, KPMG International Complexity as the stimulus The alternative view is that complexity is a necessary part of a vibrant and rapidly developing market. It drives innovation by presenting a constant stream of new problems to solve. It highlights areas of outdated thinking and forces businesses to improve constantly. This is a common view held by many of the emerging economy businesses. For these companies, cutting through complexity to focus sharply on the opportunities it presents is a major part of their corporate strategy. In Mexico, the view taken by one consumer markets finance director was, “It is the current situation that makes you innovate, be more efficient and look for strategies that allow the company to achieve its objectives in the medium and long term.” These may not be comfortable strategies, and they certainly require a large personal commitment from managers determined to keep up to date with rapidly changing markets. But the rewards are there. The advice from one UK-based finance director was, “Embrace it. A lot of people can get overwhelmed by it. The key is to take advantage of the opportunities, while understanding the need to simplify complexity and bring some clarity.” Conclusion If there was any doubt about the importance of complexity as a real, day-to-day issue for modern businesses, this survey will have dispelled it. Senior decision makers recognize complexity as a source of additional risk, cost, management challenges and opportunities. Perhaps the most challenging aspect of complexity is that it is not static. This year, it may be that the after-effects of recession are causing additional complexity. Next year they may give way to the impact of regulations designed to avoid recessions in the future, followed by a new technology that revolutionalizes the way business is done, followed by a struggle to find the right people to manage that technology and turn it to advantage. Faced with this stream of issues, senior management has a responsibility to respond with strategies to mitigate complexity and take advantage of the opportunities it presents. This implies institutionalizing the study of complexity, to identify the most effective techniques for dealing with it and apply them throughout the organization. Successful management teams will be looking for ways to embed agility into their organizations, moving rapidly to understand and meet the changing needs of their markets. They also will need to develop powerful, yet flexible structures to manage the demands of increasing regulation without stifling innovation. There are some important differences emerging between specific economic regions and groups at different stages in their development. These will be reflected in the actions taken by companies based in these areas. But it is striking how similar are the concerns of companies throughout the world. It is not so much the nature of the complexity a company faces that will determine its success, it is the extent to which the company can effectively analyze the situation and bring resources to bear. This applies throughout the world, and strategies learned in one market or one geography may well prove applicable in other markets. It is not realistic to expect complexity to decline in an increasingly sophisticated global economy. The most appropriate course is to seek ways to understand it, to focus on the opportunities it presents, and to turn challenges into engines for growth. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 28 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Appendix I Country Reports Australia Mexico Brazil Netherlands Canada Russia China Singapore Denmark South Africa France South Korea Germany Spain India Sweden Ireland Switzerland Italy UK Japan US © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. C o n f r o n t i n g C o m p l exi t y | 29 © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 30 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 96% Overall, 96 percent of Australian firms recognize that managing complexity efficiently is important to their success. Australia Reflecting the global trend, most Australian firms have noticed business complexity rising over the past two years. 18 percent consider the increase to be very significant, with the majority, 56 percent, declaring it somewhat significant. Only five other countries taking part in the survey registered a larger perceived rise in complexity. Market rules and regulation changes are identified as by far the largest driver of this trend, with 41 percent of Australian firms favoring this explanation. This is the second highest percentage of any country in this category after the UK’s 46 percent, and considerably above the global average of 26 percent. Some factors which have strong significance elsewhere in the world – the economic environment/recession, and increasing competition appear to have had fewer ramifications for Australian firms, being highlighted by only 15 percent and 5 percent of firms, respectively, compared with worldwide averages of 23 percent and 17 percent. The next two years seem likely to herald great challenges for Australian companies, with a net 44 percent of respondents predicting an increase in complexity. This is the highest proportion in the world, even though almost five times as many expect that rise to be moderate, rather than very significant. Australian respondents blame complexity on a range of factors. Although more than three quarters believe government oversight and mergers/acquisitions play some role (in both instances, the highest of any country worldwide), neither are deemed to be crucial. When asked to name just the top two causes, only 10 percent chose either of these categories. Instead, regulation (52 percent), information management (38 percent, second only in the survey to Canada’s 40 percent) and operating in more countries (32 percent, second only to Sweden’s 38 percent) were considered to be more significant. The challenges associated with rising complexity correspond to the overall picture worldwide – increased costs (92 percent) and the burden of having more risks to manage (90 percent) were by far the most common side effects suggested. Conversely, only 58 percent of Australian firms (global average 67 percent) considered that rising complexity made it more difficult to compete in the marketplace. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Au st r al i a | 31 Up to 68 percent of Australian firms see potential new opportunities arising from the increase in complexity, with some 74 percent citing opportunities to gain competitive advantage over their rivals. Making their businesses more competitive, creating better strategies and expanding into new markets were also popular, each identified as possibilities by 68 percent of firms surveyed, closely aligned to the global averages for these categories. Over the next two years, the majority of Australian businesspeople (57 percent) agree that regulation will be the major driver of increased complexity, compared to the global average of 63 percent. Several factors predicted to be significant triggers in other countries, such as information management, operating in more countries and a more rapid pace of innovation, are expected to be far less relevant in Australia. In fact, just 26 percent of Australian firms, the lowest in the survey, anticipate that the speed of innovation will be significant, compared to a global average of 60 percent. In the past two years, Australian companies have implemented an array of tactics to help manage complexity. By far the most common was improving information management – at 84 percent, matching the global average precisely. However, whereas 70 percent of firms worldwide attempted reorganizing their businesses, only 62 percent of Australian firms had taken this approach, the third lowest in the survey after the Netherlands (54 percent) and the US (60 percent). A far more common method favored in Australia was conducting mergers and acquisitions. Some 70 percent of firms reported doing this, the highest in the survey by a considerable margin, and well ahead of the global average of 45 percent. Over the next two years, mergers and acquisitions will continue to play a strong part in the Australian business response to complexity – 56 percent of Australian firms (the second highest in the survey after Ireland’s 57 percent) forecast more mergers and acquisitions. Business reorganization will be equally popular (56 percent), but improving information management will continue to dominate, cited by 63 percent, even though that constitutes the fourth lowest percentage in the survey and a full 10 percent behind the global average of 73 percent. No decisions will be taken lightly. Overall, 96 percent of Australian firms recognize that managing complexity efficiently is important to their success. In line with every other country, Australians strongly believe that regulation needs to be streamlined (90 percent) and that it is up to governments to collaborate to make this a reality (91 percent). © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 32 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Brazil Although Brazilian respondents to the survey noted an overall increase in business complexity over the past two years (62 percent), roughly in line with the US (63 percent), Japan and Germany (both 61 percent), the severity of that change puts Brazil at the top of the table for countries contributing to the study. Half of the Brazilian firms surveyed reported that complexity increased very significantly – a clear seven percent ahead of the country with the next most dramatic complexity increase, China, where a very significant increase was experienced by 43 percent of respondents. Of all the countries surveyed, complexity in Brazilian businesses has been driven less by the economic environment and global recession than anywhere else. Just 5 percent of respondents in Brazil believe these factors have contributed to driving change, compared to a worldwide average of 23 percent, and 28 percent for the US. Instead, the increase in complexity is attributed to two main factors – market rules/regulation changes (28 percent, just above the global average) and increasing competition. The latter may be particularly significant – at 25 percent, only firms in Mexico (27 percent), South Korea (33 percent) and France and Sweden (both 28 percent) rank it higher. Brazilian companies may still have a lot more adapting to do yet. A net 36 percent of respondents predicted a future increase in complexity, behind only South Africa (38 percent), China (43 percent) and Australia (44 percent). Although firms in Brazil generally blame increasing regulation for current complexity levels (36 percent), two other factors contribute significantly: the increased speed of innovation (30 percent) and, most notably, mergers and acquisitions (also 30 percent). The perceived complexity of mergers and acquisitions was the highest of any country in the survey, well ahead of the 18 percent average, when firms were asked to identify the greatest causes of complexity. In Brazil, complexity appears to cause multiple problems. The need for new skills is abundantly clear. Some 92 percent of respondents from Brazil recognized this as a shortfall – the highest of any country in the survey. Almost as significant is the fear that complexity makes it more difficult for © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Br azi l | 33 firms to compete. Once again Brazil scored higher in this category than any other country, with 86 percent of Brazilian firms identifying it as a key issue. The follow-on effect on companies’ strategic approaches is telling, with a further 80 percent of respondents – again, the survey’s highest – acknowledging that complexity means it is more difficult to make management decisions. Despite this, four-fifths of Brazilian businesses see some potential for creating opportunities from complexity. Some 95 percent, a higher proportion than anywhere else around the world, see complexity as an opportunity to make their companies more efficient – far higher than the global average of 70 percent. A further 88 percent of Brazilian firms taking part in the study see the prospect of creating new and better strategies, and almost as many, 80 percent, believe it offers opportunities to expand into new markets. Different factors are expected to drive complexity in Brazil over the next two years as these new opportunities evolve. Innovation is expected to increase in speed, according to 88 percent of Brazilian businesspeople – the highest worldwide. Some 79 percent of Brazilian respondents also expect information management to trigger greater complexity – second only in the survey to France’s 85 percent. Few in Brazil, however, expect operating in more countries to contribute to complexity – at 17 percent, Brazil had the lowest tally of anywhere in the world in this category. So far, Brazilian companies have reacted to the challenges of complexity broadly in line with the rest of the world – focusing on improving information management and reorganizing elements of their business. A significant number, however – 76 percent, trailing only India and China – have also significantly changed their approach to human resources. The modified approach to human resources will continue in Brazil over the next two years, if the predictions of 77 percent of respondents, the highest in the study, are correct. Other energies will be divided between improving information management (73 percent) and reorganizing the business (65 percent). Complexity is certainly a subject Brazilian companies are taking seriously. Almost all (94 percent) of those quizzed believe that managing complexity is fundamental to their businesses thriving, and most of those believe that attracting new skills internally, coupled with governments collaborating with each other to simplify the regulatory environments, represent important steps forward. 94% Almost all respondents believe that managing complexity is fundamental to business success. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 34 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 56% 56 percent of respondents reporting a net increase in the complexity they currently face. Canada For many of the countries in this survey, complexity has been generated by recession and by the actions taken both to deal with its effects, and to prevent it happening again. So for those familiar with the relatively strong performance of the Canadian economy, it should come as no surprise that Canadian respondents take an optimistic line on complexity. Canada did feel the effect of recession, but its recovery has been strong and, in contrast with other economies, has brought jobs with it (as of January 2011, Canada had recovered all the jobs lost during the recession). So while businesses in Canada have certainly faced an increase in complexity over the past two years, most Canadian executives expect the pace to slow in the near future. Regulatory complexity With 56 percent of respondents reporting a net increase in the complexity they currently face, only one in ten expect this level to increase over the next two years. This is a clear contrast with Canada’s largest trading partner and neighbour, the United States, where more than one in three respondents expect complexity to increase in the same time frame. While Canadians and Americans generally agree about the reasons for this increased complexity, Canadians were more likely than either the US or the global average to cite the current regulatory framework as their most significant current cause of complexity, followed by information management. Country % Causes of complexity Global Canada US Regulation 71 79 74 Information management 63 74 71 Government oversight 60 73 75 Speed of innovation 59 67 54 Tax policy 57 38 55 Operating in more countries 55 30 45 Doing mergers/acquisitions 50 36 43 Source: KPMG International, 2010 © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Can ad a | 35 Canadians also voiced strong concerns about the potential for regulation, in particular, to increase complexity in the future. Among the 10 percent of Canadian respondents who expect the level of complexity to increase over the next two years, the vast majority (84 percent) identified regulation as the primary cause. The Canadian political system is complex, consisting of an active federal government combined with a series of strong provincial authorities, so there are many layers of regulation to contend with. However, strong regulation of Canadian banks has been credited with keeping them largely out of the bad loans business which has caused such difficulties elsewhere in the world, thus contributing to the strength of the Canadian recovery.1 Nevertheless, given their experience of regulation, it should come as no surprise that 95 percent of Canadian respondents agreed that governments needed to work together to make the global regulatory environment less complex. Impact on operations Canadians believe they are more likely than most to be impacted by complexity related to technology and IT issues. Almost three quarters of respondents cited increased complexity stemming from information management (only Brazilians were more concerned in this area), and more than two thirds indicated the increased 1 speed of innovation for a more complex business environment (versus 59 percent globally). in new markets as the potential source of future complexity, versus 46 percent amongst their global peers. At the same time, when asked about possible actions that may reduce complexity, Canadian respondents were more likely to focus on IT solutions than their global counterparts. Almost 90 percent claim to have improved information management in order to better manage complexity in the past, and more than three quarters of respondents expect to leverage information management in the future. This might appear inward-looking, but it seems to be borne more of a rising confidence in Canada’s existing business strengths. There are more and more opportunities appearing within Canada as the economy powers out of recession. At the same time, the country’s established position as a supplier of raw materials and commodities to the world puts it in a strong position both to reap the benefits of recovery in other countries such as China, and to profit from the high prices that raw materials now command. Seven in ten Canadian executives said they believed new opportunities would open up for their company as a result of increased business complexity, with a clear focus on internal opportunities rather than external. Responses were split between opportunities to focus on existing business strategy (81 percent) and the need to create new and better strategies (80 percent). Coming in a close third was the need to make their companies more efficient (77 percent). Growth and globalization Canadians also seemed to be relatively unconcerned about the complexity of operating and expanding into new markets. When asked if operating in more countries has caused increased complexity, 30 percent said yes, versus a global average of 55 percent. Only 34 percent of Canadian respondents cited operations Overall, Canadian executives seem to be taking a cautious approach to dealing with increased complexity by focusing on running their existing businesses more efficiently. Notwithstanding their high regulatory burden, Canadian business people appear to be among the most confident in our survey in their ability to deal with increased complexity in future. Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, World Economic Forum © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 36 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y China As the emerging force in world trade and economic development, China itself might be seen as a cause of complexity for the rest of the world. However, within China the experience of complexity is quite different from that of many other countries in our survey. Complexity in China today is clearly framed by the demands and pressures created by rapid growth. As an emerging market, complexity exists in terms of availability of information, rapid evolution (and indeed fragmentation) in sales and distribution channels, cultural challenges, barriers to entry and rapid innovation. There are signs of change and increasing complexity to come, in concerns over rising prices, the impact of fierce competition and the growing influence of regulation. Respondents in China report a rapid increase in complexity over the past two years. Just under half (43 percent) say that complexity has increased very significantly, and 41 percent have seen at least some increase. With only 15 percent saying that complexity has decreased or stayed the same, this puts China second in the table measuring net increase in complexity over this period, just behind Italy. But there is a clear contrast between China and the countries of Western Europe. Recession and its problems have been a major cause of complexity for only 32 percent of respondents in China, compared with 63 percent of Italians. Other significant causes for the Chinese have been increased competition (20 percent) and, unusually among the countries surveyed, pricing pressures (12 percent). This suggests that Chinese organizations are managing a quite different set of commercial challenges from those recorded by many European countries. The Chinese experience is one of growth, inflation, skills shortages and relatively low levels of regulation, although these are seen to be increasing. The globalization of many companies and the extended reach of regulations from other jurisdictions mean companies often have to manage multiple or overlapping regulatory regimes as they plot their strategy in this vast and growing market. This picture is clear from the Chinese responses to questions on what constitute the largest causes of complexity for businesses today. Most respondents from other countries cited regulation as their number one, but for the Chinese, government oversight and regulation came well down the list, after information management (60 percent), operating in more countries (59 percent) and tax policy (56 percent). For China, the most important cause of complexity was increased speed of innovation, chosen by 76 percent. In such a rapidly developing market, Chinese companies are able to adopt new technologies very quickly, or even leapfrog certain technologies entirely, in a way that their Western counterparts may struggle to match due to legacy issues and existing infrastructure. While this © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Ch i n a | 37 can give China-based businesses a clear advantage in global markets, it inevitably increases the pace of competition between businesses inside China. Looking at the challenges presented by complexity, respondents in China were almost unanimous in choosing increased cost (93 percent) and the need for new skills (92 percent). The most popular choice in the majority of other countries, which was the need to manage more risks, came only sixth on their scale of priorities. Future expectations of complexity told a similar story. Respondents in China were again high on the list of those expecting a further increase in complexity in the next two years, with 27 percent anticipating a very significant further increase. But the challenges are expected to come mainly from further increases in the speed of innovation (67 percent), with only 34 percent anticipating an increase in regulation, and 36 percent expecting more government oversight. Concerns about retaining enough people with the necessary skills runs like a thread through the Chinese responses. Uniquely among the countries surveyed, respondents ranked changes to their approach to human resources alongside improvements in information management as key responses to complexity, both chosen by 85 percent. Looking ahead two years, human resources issues are still expected to be a major issue for 63 percent of respondents, taking second place after further improvements in information management (66 percent), and just ahead of possible business reorganizations (60 percent). With 88 percent of respondents in China agreeing that businesses will need new skills to manage complexity in the future, it’s clear that while much of the world sees complexity as a problem that might be solved by improvements in use and understanding of information, for many Chinese businesses this goes hand-in-hand with a concerted effort to improve the quality of their labor forces. But these serious issues are not deterring respondents in China from exploring the new opportunities presented by complexity. Nearly 8 in 10 (78 percent) agreed that complexity did present opportunities (although 16 percent were not sure, a high figure by global standards). The chance to develop new and better strategies was cited by 73 percent as an important opportunity, followed by opening up of new markets, chosen by 68 percent. Significantly, only 33 percent said complexity presented opportunities to improve existing strategies, the lowest score in this category of any country in the survey. Taken together, these results suggest a strong Chinese focus on evolving business models, confronting complexity as companies explore new methods and new markets. Strategies are being driven by a rapid and accelerating pace of innovation and constrained mainly by the need to find the right people. There are signs that the causes of complexity will change in the future as China’s economy reacts to the consequences of its own success. But for now, the complexity felt by Chinese respondents to our survey is clearly shaped by its unique and dramatic growth story. For China, the most important cause of complexity is increasing speed of innovation and growth. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 38 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 60% Tax policy was cited by 60 percent as a leading future cause of complexity. Denmark Despite the general global agreement that complexity has increased and that its impact on business has been substantial, there are some parts of the world where it is seen in a more relaxed light. Denmark stands out, along with the Netherlands, as a country where businesspeople take a moderate view of the difficulties posed by complexity. There are areas of concern, but not as many as we have seen elsewhere. This is apparent in Danish views on the movement in complexity over the past two years. While 22 percent say there has been a very significant increase, and 32 percent a moderate or small increase, fully 44 percent say that complexity has stayed the same or reduced, the highest figure recorded in this category. This gives Denmark a net figure of only 10 percent for respondents reporting an increase in complexity since 2008, by far the lowest recorded, alongside the Netherlands. But, looking ahead two years, Danish respondents do not expect much to change, while those from Italy, Ireland, Russia and the Netherlands expect a net reduction in complexity. Examining the declared causes of complexity in these countries, it appears that in several there are one or two factors clearly identified as most influential; for example, the effects of recession in Italy and Ireland. So, as these factors decline in strength, the additional complexity they generate might be expected to decline as well. But in Denmark there is no outstanding cause. Around half of Danish respondents cited globalization, information management, speed of innovation and regulation as causes. But none of these was thought to be substantially more influential than the rest, and since each is a normal feature of business life in most of the countries surveyed, it would make sense to assume that they will continue into the future, generating much the same levels of complexity as are experienced today. There was one factor that a majority of Danish respondents did expect to increase in influence. Tax policy was cited by 60 percent as a leading future cause of complexity, well ahead of regulation and government oversight, © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. D e n m ar k | 39 both at 47 percent. Coming from a country well known for having among the highest rates of value-added tax and personal tax in the world, this is, perhaps, not so surprising. But it does demonstrate a continuing high level of concern over tax rates, even among people who might be expected to have become accustomed to them. A majority of Danish respondents (60 percent) did see opportunities in complexity, but there was less enthusiasm for these opportunities here than in any country except Germany. Just over a fifth (22 percent) said they saw no opportunities in complexity, and 18 percent were not sure, the highest figure recorded for this response. Looking at the challenges posed by complexity, 84 percent pointed to the increase in the number of risks to be managed, and 70 percent said that there was a clear need for new skills. These responses are broadly in line with those from other European states, but, while relatively large numbers of companies elsewhere have responded to the need for new skills by making changes to their human resources functions, in Denmark only 30 percent have chosen to do so up to now, and only 23 percent plan to do so in the future. The preferred response to complexity from Danish companies has been to reorganize all or part of the business, chosen by 76 percent, followed by improvements in information management. Denmark was the only country not to choose improved information management as the principal means of dealing with complexity today, but looking ahead its importance is expected to increase. Between now and 2013, 68 percent of Danish respondents expect to focus on better management of their information, while just over half (52 percent) expect to reorganize their businesses, merge or acquire a new business, or invest in a new country. Among the very active and dynamic responses to complexity recorded in other states, especially in the emerging and Asia-Pacific economies, Danish responses may appear low key. But the Danish are also carefully balanced in their view of the causes and opportunities associated with complexity, and show caution on the changes that may be necessary to improve management of complexity in the future. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 40 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y France Businesspeople in France seem to be taking increased complexity in their stride. While not a single French respondent was willing to say that complexity had decreased for them over the past two years, only one in five said that the increase was very significant and 56 percent classified it as ‘somewhat significant.’ A similar sentiment can be seen in the French outlook for the future; none would predict an increase of any real significance, although just over half felt that the level of complexity may increase moderately. This could relate to the fact that French respondents were about 10 percent more likely than their global peers to cite the recession and increased competition as the two top factors driving complexity in the past (cited by 33 percent and 28 percent of French, respectively), and respondents may expect these challenges to become less acute in the near future. Regulatory compliance and market controls also seem to be causing increased complexity for French businesspeople, with more than half citing these as among the most influential factors governing their current level of complexity. In this regard, only respondents in South Africa (60 percent) and the UK (59 percent) seem to show more concern. While French responses were largely consistent with global norms when asked about the top challenges that their companies are facing as a result of increased complexity (83 percent said increased risk and 74 percent cited the need for new skills), they also displayed a significant concern about complexity making it more difficult to implement change (cited by 74 percent of French respondents versus 58 percent globally). Conversely, respondents from France were less inclined to be concerned about the increased cost of complexity (68 percent versus 78 percent globally) or its impact on their ability to make management decisions (42 percent versus a global average of 58 percent). But although French businesspeople might seem relatively relaxed about the challenges of complexity, at least by global standards, they do tend to be among the least optimistic about the opportunities that complexity may deliver to their companies. Only two-thirds of respondents agreed © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Fr an ce | 41 that opportunities may be created, and where gains were expected, these tended to focus on increased efficiency (85 percent), expansion into new markets (76 percent), creating competitive advantage (68 percent) and creating new and better business strategies (65 percent). An overwhelming majority of French respondents (85 percent) considered information management to be their top concern going forward, with regulatory issues trailing in second place at just over 75 percent. In this regard, French respondents stand out as the only group surveyed that considered information management to be the leading future cause of complexity over the next two years. This may prove to be prescient. Across almost every country surveyed, respondents overwhelmingly pointed to information management as being their top action to manage complexity, both today and in the future. In France, 82 percent responded that information management is a current tool for managing complexity, and 77 percent cited its potential use in the future, which would reinforce the view that added complexity in this area is on the horizon. Survey responses from France also seem to indicate a pent-up desire to expand into new international markets. More than three quarters of the respondents felt that increased global complexity created opportunities for their companies to expand; more than half are considering investing in new geographies as a way to address complexity over the next two years; and – when asked to consider future causes of complexity – more than 60 percent believe that managing operations in more countries will be a leading issue. At the same time, however, only 36 percent of French respondents were able to point to any recent foreign expansions, versus almost 50 percent among their global peers. In summary, French businesspeople do seem relatively at ease with the increased pace of complexity. This may be a result of a perceived level of confidence that – having already weathered the complexity of increased regulation, fierce competition and economic crisis – French businesses are now taking measured but proactive steps to manage complexity better in the future, and to take advantage of the opportunities it might bring. 85% An overwhelming number of French respondents (85 percent) considered information management a top concern. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 42 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 93% Some 93 percent of German survey respondents believe that managing complexity is integral to business success. Germany German businesspeople believe they have faced a dramatically changing business environment over the past two years. Some 35 percent of survey respondents report that business complexity has increased very significantly during this timeframe – the highest of any European country. A similar number, 36 percent, report that complexity has increased somewhat significantly. Tellingly, no respondents reported a decrease in business complexity. In line with the majority of countries, market rules and regulation changes were highlighted as major driving forces behind the rise in complexity by 35 percent of German respondents. However, whereas most developed economies also identified the recession as a chief cause of greater complexity, this was not the case in Germany, where it was the choice of only 16 percent. A larger number, 18 percent, believed globalization was a more significant factor. Worldwide, no other country viewed globalization as being such an important driver of complexity. Although a slender majority of German firms expect a further rise in complexity over the next two years, 41 percent of German firms surveyed expect the level of complexity to remain the same. Only two other countries had a greater proportion of respondents anticipating no change – Ireland (48 percent) and Mexico (42 percent). Corresponding with the global pattern, German businesspeople believe that government regulation (49 percent) and tax policies (31 percent) are the two greatest factors causing complexity in their businesses today. Further reflecting the worldwide picture, German respondents highlighted managing increased risks as the top challenge they faced due to the increase in complexity. At 92 percent, the proportion of German companies identifying more risks as a core challenge was the second highest after Canada’s 94 percent. But other challenges also occupy the minds of German managers, with increased costs and the need for new skills both cited as key challenges by more than threequarters of German respondents. The outlook for creating new opportunities from this shifting landscape appears bleak compared to the rest of the world. Only 53 percent of German firms quizzed believe complexities create any new opportunities – the lowest in the survey. And 40 percent of German firms do not believe complexity provides any new opportunities at all. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. G e r m any | 43 The expected source of potential opportunities also sets Germany apart from other countries. Of those respondents who did identify opportunities, many – 81 percent – thought the creation of new products was the most likely outlet – the highest proportion of any country. A similar proportion – 79 percent – believed there was an opportunity to gain a competitive advantage through exploiting increased complexity. Approximately three quarters of those interviewed also viewed expansion into new markets and new business strategies as potential side effects. Only 38 percent of German firms expect the causes of complexity to change over the next two years, considerably less than most Far East, Asian and developing economies, but comparable to other European and Scandinavian economies. Globally, most companies believe regulation will drive complexity, closely followed by speed of innovation and information management. Germany fits this model perfectly, with 74 percent of respondents citing regulation, and 61 percent each opting for speed of innovation and information management. Conversely, the Germans appear to have more faith in their regulators than their European neighbours in the UK, France and Ireland; only 39 percent of German businesspeople surveyed believed government oversight would contribute to increasing complexity. In tandem with the rest of the world, firms in Germany focused primarily on improving information management and reorganizing their businesses to tackle increasing complexity over the past two years – with 89 percent and 68 percent of German firms, respectively, having undertaken these processes. These tactics will continue over the next two years as well, but a large proportion of businesspeople in Germany – 54 percent – also expect to significantly modify their approach to human resources. Within Europe, only companies in France – 58 percent – are placing a greater significance on changing human resources. The significance of changing levels of complexity in the business environment is widely recognized within German firms. Some 93 percent acknowledge that managing complexity is integral to their businesses’ success. The message is clear; while companies can help themselves to navigate the growing business complexities by acquiring new skills, they believe that governments should simplify regulation wherever possible (92 percent), and above all work alongside other governments (94 percent) to streamline the global regulatory landscape. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 44 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y India Businesspeople in India, our survey findings indicate, have mixed views on whether complexity has increased in the past two years. While 38 percent of Indian respondents agreed that their company’s level of complexity had increased (38 percent agreed versus a global average of 28 percent), almost a quarter of respondents disagreed. The latter stated that complexity for their business had either stayed the same (14 percent) or somewhat decreased (10 percent) over this period. Nevertheless, a majority of respondents believe that complexity translates into opportunities for their businesses, focusing on improving existing business strategies, enhancing efficiency, and possibly gaining competitive advantage. government oversight (32 percent) than any other causes. In fact, Indian respondents unanimously agreed that governments needed to work together to make the global regulatory environment less complex. When asked to identify what have been the main causes of complexity over the past two years, one in four Indian respondents identified the impact of increased competition as the leading factor. Other key factors included high customer expectations (16 percent), globalization (13 percent) and changes in regulation (13 percent). Interestingly, less than 10 percent cited the recent economic recession, versus 23 percent globally. Looking ahead, a majority of businesspeople surveyed believe that complexity will increase in India over the next two years, although roughly 30 percent believed that complexity would either decrease or stay the same in that timeframe. As for the causes of complexity today, a large number of respondents cited information management and the increased speed of innovation. However, when asked to identify the top two factors, more respondents selected regulation (36 percent) and More than 80 percent of Indian businesspeople surveyed expect that increased complexity will affect their cost of doing business. But respondents from India were among the least likely to cite difficulties in making management decisions (36 percent versus a global average of 58 percent) or challenges in making deals and transactions (32 percent as opposed to 58 percent globally) as possible outcomes of increased © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. In d i a | 45 complexity, which may indicate a growing confidence in dealing with international transactions. On the other hand, a majority of respondents said that complexity would create new opportunities for their companies in a number of ways. Nine out of 10 suggested they would focus on their existing business strategy; 87 percent expected to find new or more ways to make their company more efficient; 85 percent thought they could gain competitive advantage as a result of complexity; and an equal number expected to find opportunities in creating new and better strategies. It is also noteworthy that, with the exception of Mexico, Indian respondents were the most likely to expect to find opportunities to expand into new markets as a result of complexity, with 82 percent citing this as a potential outcome. Respondents in India were also the most likely of all countries surveyed to presuppose a change in the root causes of complexity over the next two years, with almost 70 percent foreseeing change, versus less than 50 percent globally. More than seven in 10 respondents suggested that the increased speed of innovation would create future challenges, and 65 percent cited an increased burden of regulation (other than tax). In order to respond to complexity in the past, Indian respondents were almost unanimous (94 percent) in saying that their company had improved their use of information management. It should come as no surprise, then, that information management (84 percent) and HR policies (71 percent) topped the list of potential actions that Indian businesspeople expect to take in the future to counteract growing levels of complexity. Additionally, while six out of 10 respondents said they have invested in new geographies in the past as a response to complexity, only 42 percent say they will do this in the future. Business reorganization emerges as a more popular strategy, with almost 75 percent believing this to be a potential action for their company going forward. Overall, the survey results show that, in the majority of business sectors, Indian companies continue to grapple with growing complexity in three key areas: information management – although almost all respondents agreed improvements had been made – regulatory oversight and human resources. While growth into foreign markets may have been a defining factor for Indian companies in the past, internally-focused strategies are now likely to take center stage over the next two years. Indian respondents expect to find opportunities to expand into new markets as a result of complexity. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 46 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y As one of the world’s most globalized economies, Irish respondents expect to see positive opportunities from complexity. Ireland For the majority of Irish businesspeople, complexity has increased over the past two years. More than two-thirds of Irish respondents said they had either seen a ‘very significant’ or ‘somewhat significant’ increase during that time frame. But with more than a quarter of respondents indicating that their level of complexity had stayed the same, there is obviously some variation across industries and sectors in the Irish economy. In identifying the possible reasons for the overall increase in complexity, Irish respondents were more likely than any other national group to cite the effects of the economic recession. But given the impact of the credit crisis on their business environment and the sovereign debt concerns that followed, this should hardly come as a surprise. of respondents from Ireland identified non-tax regulation as one of their top two leading causes for complexity today, and just less than a third selected government oversight. Irish respondents were much more positive about the level of complexity that they might face in the future, with more than half suggesting that it would either decrease or stay the same, and only 10 percent predicting a very significant increase over the next two years. Of the 22 countries surveyed, only Italian respondents displayed more optimism. And while more than eight in 10 Irish respondents suggest that non-tax regulation will likely be a cause of complexity in the future (the highest proportion outside of Canada), they seem more likely to see tax policy as a potential source of complexity (77 percent) than ongoing government oversight (at 64 percent). It is worth noting that – with the exception of France and Brazil – Irish businesspeople were also the most likely to expect to see complexities stemming from information management in the future. As Irish-based businesses look to future trends, the causes of complexity seem to have shifted from the economy to regulation and oversight. Almost half For approximately three quarters of Irish respondents, increased complexity has created a number of new challenges for their businesses: © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Ir e l an d | 47 they now face more risks to manage (cited by 78 percent), they are having more difficulty competing (also at 78 percent), and 74 percent acknowledge the need for new skills. While risks such as increased cost, difficulties in making management decisions and increased time horizons for deals and transactions (at 66 percent, 66 percent and 70 percent, respectively) were not among the top choices, the Irish did tend to display more concern than their global counterparts in these areas. As one of the most globalized economies in the world, Irish respondents were very likely to see a potential for opportunities to be created for their business as a result of complexity. With 86 percent taking this view, the Irish seem far more positive than most other European countries, such as the UK (71 percent), Italy, Switzerland or the Netherlands (each at 70 percent) and Germany (at 53 percent). Irish respondents were also among the most likely (90 percent) of all global businesspeople to indicate that they had leveraged some form of improved information management in order to address the impact of complexity on their business, and almost 80 percent said that they had taken on some level of business reorganization in response to complexity. Interestingly, while almost three quarters of Irish surveyed thought that they might take different or additional actions over the next two years, almost 90 percent still chose improvements in information management, and almost 80 percent continued to prefer some form of business reorganization. Overall, the findings show that the Irish are dealing with moderate to high levels of complexity today, but generally expect many of the challenges to fall away over the next two years, making room for new challenges and opportunities. In identifying the potential opportunities that may present themselves, Irish businesspeople tended to focus on either making their companies more efficient (88 percent) or gaining competitive advantage (81 percent). Just over 70 percent said that they would focus on their strategy, either existing or future. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 48 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Italy Among Italian respondents to the complexity survey, experiences and expectations of complexity seem to be driven mainly by the effects of the global recession, rather than any longer-term change in the commercial environment. Two-thirds, (66 percent) of respondents to the survey said they had seen a moderately significant increase in complexity in the past two years, and for most of these people the largest cause of this increase was either the recession or crises in their markets. Relatively few people (only 12 percent) were prepared to say that these factors had caused a very significant increase in complexity. But the fact that so many people had experienced some increase in the difficulties associated with running their businesses, and no-one believed that complexity had decreased, meant that Italy recorded the largest net increase in complexity over the past two years of any country in the survey. Looking ahead, however, expectations of future increases in complexity are lower in Italy than in any other country surveyed. Only two percent were prepared to predict a significant future increase, and a majority (54 percent) thought that levels of complexity would either stay the same or fall. This positive mindset may be at least partially influenced by the constitution of a new ministry by the current government to simplify bureaucracy in the public sector. This tends to reinforce the idea that much of the recent Italian experience of complexity is driven by recession. If this is true, then we might expect that businesspeople would look forward to a decline in complexity as markets and economies recover. That is what the responses show. There is a similar pattern in the responses from people in Ireland, where 43 percent of respondents put past increases in complexity down to the effects of recession, and 56 percent say that in the next two years complexity will either decrease or stay the same. Looking at today’s causes of complexity for Italian businesses, actions by government feature strongly, with general regulation cited as a leading cause by 68 percent, government oversight by 66 percent and tax policy the choice of 62 percent. Speed of innovation, which is a leading cause of complexity for businesses in many of the emerging economies like China and Brazil, comes relatively low down the list in Italy, chosen by only 48 percent. This focus on the role of government, perhaps solicited, as mentioned above, by the activities of the recently constituted ministry, appears again in the more general comments from Italian respondents. They were almost unanimous in their support for the proposition that regulation needs to be less complex, an idea supported by 96 percent. Managing complexity was © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. It al y | 49 seen as important to the company’s success by 88 percent, and the same proportion agreed that governments should work together to make the global regulatory environment less complex. Despite the evident desire for action by government, complexity was also seen by 70 percent of Italian respondents as a source of opportunity for companies. This is clearly a significant proportion, but it is below the global average of 74 percent, suggesting that businesspeople in several other countries are more likely to welcome complexity for the opportunities it brings. Relatively few Italian respondents thought that these opportunities would include creating new products (31 percent) or refocusing the existing business strategy (34 percent). More popular were the less-specific options of gaining competitive advantage or making the company more efficient, both favored by 57 percent. In common with most other respondents across the globe, the key action that Italian businesspeople are taking to help deal with complexity is to focus on improving their management of information. As a means of understanding better what is happening in large and diverse organizations, perhaps dealing with information systems that may not be compatible, this is clearly a sensible approach. Half of the Italian respondents expect improving management of information to remain their focus for the next two years. Others are looking at business reorganizations (44 percent), or investments in new geographies 44 percent). In summary, Italian respondents to this survey seem to take a relatively relaxed view of the effect of complexity on their businesses. It is seen largely as a product of recession and of the regulatory actions taken by governments to deal with the effects of recession. There is an expectation that as the recession recedes, so will these causes of complexity. The survey results appear to support the scenario that the recession may in fact have stimulated Italian enterprises to restructure and research new and efficient means of operating. Their relatively positive outlook expresses an awareness that complexity is an opportunity in terms of globalization. The results also highlight how the perception of complexity is mainly related to the regulatory and bureaucratic limitations typical of the Italian context. In this perspective the process of modernization in the public sector and a rigorous simplification of regulatory requirements could mark a decisive passage through to the recovery of the country’s overall competitive status. In fact, while complexity can generate opportunities, these are seen less as chances for innovation and new thinking that are claimed by respondents from some of the emerging economies, and more as opportunities to develop and improve what is already in place. As markets and economies recover, business people in Italy expect a decline in complexity. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 50 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 69% More than two-thirds of Japanese respondents (69 percent) believe that increasing speed of innovation will be the primary driver of complexity in the near future. Japan Almost three quarters of the Japanese respondents (73 percent) believe that business complexity has increased in the past two years, while only four percent believe complexity has decreased. However, among Far Eastern countries, Japanese firms reported a less-pronounced increase in business complexity than any of their neighbours, at 61 percent. Singapore, South Korea and China registered 64 percent, 68 percent and 69 percent net increases, respectively. In stark contrast to most European countries and developed economies such as North America and Australia, the dominant cause of complexity in Japan appears not to be the burden of regulation, reported by just 18 percent of respondents. Instead, the economic environment and recession shoulder most of the blame for increased complexity, at 31 percent. Pricing pressure was also identified by 10 percent – the third highest rate for this option after China (12 percent) and Russia (14 percent). Looking ahead over the next two years, businesspeople in Japan anticipate a further rise in business complexity with 59 percent expecting it to be somewhat or very significant. Only three percent believe the rise will be minimal. With 34 percent expecting a net future increase in complexity, Japan exceeds any European or Scandinavian country, putting it on a par with Singapore and India and lagging behind only America, Brazil, South Africa, China and Australia. Contrary to the global picture, where regulation is blamed for causing most complexity in business today, Japanese firms are experiencing pressures from other areas. Information management (34 percent), tax policies (33 percent) and the increased speed of innovation were highlighted as crucial drivers in the survey. As with the vast majority of countries included in the study, having more risks to manage registered highly in Japan, cited by 86 percent of respondents. But even more notable, 90 percent of those questioned saw greater issues in both increased costs and the need for new skills. Aside from the risks, almost four in five Japanese respondents agreed that complexity can generate opportunities. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Jap an | 51 Reflecting the global pattern, the most commonly perceived benefit is the chance to gain a competitive advantage over rivals (68 percent). Making businesses more efficient and expanding into new markets also rated highly, at 67 percent each – although in terms of expansion, China (68 percent), Singapore (80 percent), South Korea (72 percent) and India (82 percent) were all even more optimistic. While complexity is widely expected to accelerate over the next two years in Japan, the causes are expected to shift. More than two-thirds of Japanese respondents (69 percent) believe that increasing speed of innovation will be the primary driver of complexity in the near future. Globally, regulation changes (excluding tax) are expected to have the biggest impact, but in Japan only 58 percent consider this to be a major issue. In this respect, Japan reflects the picture in China, where innovation is also expected to power complexity changes, and regulation changes are similarly downplayed (34 percent). To adapt to changing complexity, Japanese companies have closely followed the worldwide approach of improving information management (86 percent) and reorganizing their businesses (73 percent). Unlike China, however, Japanese businesspeople have placed far less emphasis on changing their approach to human resources (85 percent in China, as opposed to 69 percent in Japan) and outsourcing functions (64 percent in China, but only 56 percent in Japan). More changes are underway. Only one in five Japanese respondents do not expect their businesses to take different actions to address complexity over the coming two years. Like the majority of countries, attention will be focused on reorganizing all or part of their operations (65 percent) and improving information management (62 percent). Certainly, the scale of the complexity issue is taken very seriously by Japanese companies. When asked whether it was one of the biggest challenges facing their particular firm, 84 percent of Japanese respondents agreed – the second highest in the study, after China. Recognition of the need for new skills internally is dominant (92 percent), along with the belief from more than four out of five Japanese businesses that regulations should be simplified (81 percent) and governments should cooperate to create a less bureaucratic business environment (82 percent). © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 52 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Mexico Although the majority of respondents from Mexico felt that business complexity had increased over the past two years, 12 percent suggested that overall complexity had actually decreased, four times the global average. And even though three of four Mexican respondents had reported experiencing either a very ‘significant or somewhat significant’ increase in complexity recently, they still suggest that they are seeing less than any other surveyed country outside of Europe. As for the main factors causing this increase in complexity, respondents from Mexico were split between the impact of the recent economic recession and the effect of increasing competition in their markets. When it came to predictions for the future pace of complexity, however, Mexican respondents stood out as being moderately optimistic, with 48 percent suggesting it would either decrease or stay the same, versus a global average of 39 percent. Throughout the survey, tax policy stood out as a key issue influencing the level of complexity in Mexico. Almost eight in 10 respondents cited tax policy as a main cause of their existing complexity; an equal amount believed it would continue to be an issue into the future. As a result, Mexican businesspeople report finding themselves facing three main challenges: an increased burden of risk to manage (89 percent), the need to acquire new skills (80 percent) and more difficulties when going out into the market to compete (also 80 percent). It is worth noting that only one in five Mexican survey respondents identified challenges related to conducting deals and transactions, the lowest number among surveyed countries, and almost 40 percent below the global average. In response, 84 percent of Mexican businesses reported using improved information management to reduce – or at least better manage – complexity, and almost eight in 10 pointed to some sort of business reorganization to achieve more straightforward business operations. Respondents from Mexico were among the most optimistic in the survey. Almost 90 percent felt that complexity would create new © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Mexi co | 53 opportunities for their business in the future. This compares favorably with their largest regional neighbour Brazil (at 80 percent), their largest trading partner the US (at 74 percent), and especially with European pessimists such as Germany (at 53 percent). The majority of opportunities identified by Mexican respondents tended to be inward-looking. Almost unanimously (98 percent), respondents suggested they would focus on creating new and better strategies for their companies as a result of complexity, once again a far higher proportion than their global peers, who more often expected to focus on gaining competitive advantage. More than 90 percent of Mexican respondents also expect to find opportunities to make their company more efficient. Nevertheless, 86 percent of Mexican businesspeople suggested that they may find opportunities to expand into new markets as a result of complexity. While only 16 percent cited their foreign operations as a factor in creating complexity in the past, 70 percent say that it will likely be a cause, and possibly a welcome cause, in the future. Four out of five Mexican respondents also said that they expect to feel increasing pressure from complexities related to the pace of innovation, second only to the continued challenges represented by tax policy. Going forward, businesspeople in Mexico believe that they may take on new or additional activities to address the complexity they expect to face over the next two years. A large number (85 percent) continue to cite information management as an area that they intend to improve on, but more than three quarters also suggest they may reorganize all or part of their businesses. Strategies that seemed more externally focused, such as investing in new countries or conducting mergers and acquisitions, were at the bottom of the list, with less than half of respondents selecting these as options for the future. The view of complexity taken by Mexican respondents is a curious mixture of concern over the problems they are dealing with today and anticipation of the opportunities to come. There is certainly a feeling of energy among these people, and a sense of optimism that the next phase in the development of world trade, while it might bring more complexity, will also bring Mexico more prosperity. Tax policy stood out as a key issue influencing the level of complexity in Mexico. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 54 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 70% Looking ahead two years, 70 percent believe regulation will be a major cause of complexity. Netherlands By the standards of the rest of the world, respondents from the Netherlands seem relatively untroubled by issues of complexity. Just under half (44 percent) thought that complexity had stayed the same or decreased in the past two years, while 54 percent thought that there had been an increase. This places the Dutch alongside the Danish at the bottom of the list for past increases in complexity. But unlike the Danish, Dutch respondents were one of only four groups in the survey where a majority expected a fall in complexity over the next two years – the others being respondents from Russia, Ireland and Italy. For the Irish and Italians, much complexity is caused now by the effects of recession. So as markets recover, they might expect complexity to reduce. Among the Dutch, however, recession was a current cause of complexity for only 11 percent. More important was regulation (chosen as a key cause of complexity by 64 percent), issues over information management (chosen by 58 percent), the difficulties of operating in more than one country (54 percent) and increased speed of innovation (50 percent). This indicates that the causes are widespread, and it is interesting to look at how each of them contributes to Dutch expectations of future complexity, to see where the expected reduction will come from. Looking ahead two years, regulation is expected to increase its influence, with the percentage citing it as a major cause of complexity rising from 64 to 70. But it will no longer be the largest single cause. That place is taken by the increasing speed of innovation, cited now by 50 percent, but as a future cause by 75 percent. This places the Netherlands firmly alongside China, India, Brazil and Mexico in the expectation that innovation will be the key commercial driving force, and sets it apart from many of the European and North American economies where regulation is expected to lead. Causes of complexity expected to fall in influence include information management, which drops slightly from 58 percent to 55 percent, and operating in more than one country, which falls from 54 percent to 40 percent. But © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. N e t he r l an d s | 55 the major reductions in anticipated complexity come in government oversight, which falls from 42 percent to 20 percent, and tax policy, which is cited as a cause of complexity now by 36 percent, but is expected to be a future cause by only 20 percent. The idea of government oversight is close to that of regulation, so it is possible that some of the anticipated increase in the effect of regulation is down to some of the more informal methods of oversight used today, becoming formalized as new laws tomorrow. The reduction in concern over the effect of tax policy is more difficult to explain, but it could be down to confidence in the efforts currently being made by the Dutch tax authorities to adopt a nonconfrontational, trust-based approach to tax, which is being actively promoted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). advantage, improving efficiency and finding new markets, a surprising 28 percent said there were no opportunities to be exploited. This places the Dutch in joint second place with the Swiss in their scepticism about the potential value of complexity. The most sceptical country is Germany, where 40 percent saw no benefits to be had. The responses from the Netherlands to the survey show a certain optimism about future prospects. The complexity anticipated by an increase in regulation is more than offset by expected changes in tax policy, and increased speed of innovation seems to be viewed more as a source of opportunity than as a problem. Most interesting of all, operating in more than one country is actually expected to become easier in the future. For an internationallyminded trading nation, that must be very good news indeed. The most popular action among Dutch respondents to deal with the effects of complexity was working to improve information management. This leads the list of priorities now, chosen by 84 percent, and also for the future, chosen by 69 percent as a focus for the next two years. Although 70 percent did see opportunities in complexity, particularly in terms of building competitive © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 56 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Russia As part of the BRIC group of countries, Russians often find themselves being compared to the emerging markets of Brazil, India and China. But when it comes to the issues of business complexity, Russians are decidedly more like their regional neighbours in Europe than they are like the BRIC economies. Only one in five Russian businesspeople indicated that business complexity had increased ‘very significantly’ over the past two years, about the same proportion as in France, Denmark and the Netherlands. Brazil, China and India, however, topped the list in this regard, with anywhere from a third to a half of local respondents saying they had seen very significant increases. Looking ahead, only six percent of Russians expected to see a very significant increase in complexity, versus about a quarter of Chinese and Brazilian respondents, and a third of Indian ones. Again, these results are more in line with European nations such as Italy (two percent) or Sweden (four percent). Whereas Russians most commonly agreed with other European nations when identifying non-tax regulation as one of the most prevalent causes of complexity in their current business environment, Chinese, Indian and Brazilian respondents were more likely to point to information management or the increased speed of innovation. However, Russian respondents stand out in this particular area as being significantly less concerned than their global peers; Russians were the least likely to anticipate complexity coming from information management (40 percent versus a global norm of 63) or from the increased speed of innovation (34 percent as opposed to 59 percent). They were also half as likely as their global counterparts to cite complexities stemming from operations in foreign countries. Looking to future causes, however, the pattern begins to change. While 80 percent of Russian respondents thought that non-tax regulation would continue to be one of the root causes of complexity over the next two years, two-thirds expected to be concerned about complexities stemming from tax policy, government oversight and information management. Only slightly less of a concern was the increased speed of innovation, at 60 percent. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Ru ssi a | 57 Almost unanimously (92 percent), Russian businesspeople felt that increased complexity had resulted in more risks for their company to manage, whereas Indian and Chinese respondents tended to cite increased cost, and Brazilians overwhelmingly focused on the need for new skills. Only one third of respondents (34 percent) from Russia felt that they were seeing difficulties in implementing change, and just slightly more (36 percent) admitted having difficulties in making managing decisions as a direct result of complexity. In both cases, the Russian result was much lower than the global average. Businesspeople in Russia tended to be more optimistic than most other Europeans about the potential for complexity to create opportunities for their business. Almost 85 percent of Russians suggested opportunities might be on the horizon, versus Italy and Netherlands at 70 percent, and Germany at a pessimistic 53 percent. Almost three quarters of Russian respondents suggested said that complexity would primarily help them do the following four things: create new products (79 percent), expand into new markets (76 percent), make their company more efficient (76 percent), and create new and better strategies (74 percent). To manage complexity, Russian businesspeople favored two distinct strategies that have driven their responses in the past: improved information management (74 percent) and business reorganization (72 percent). Far less common were actions related to the outsourcing of functions, changes to HR approaches or investments in foreign markets, with just over half of Russians surveyed indicating that they had used these strategies in the past. Looking to the next two years, while information management continued to be the top choice of 72 percent of Russians, the desire to conduct further business reorganization had clearly dissipated and was selected by less than half of Russians as a possible future action. Our findings suggest that – while the growth trajectory and economic potential of Russia may be more like those of the BRIC countries – the complexities that Russian businesspeople face (and the opportunities and solutions that they expect to take advantage of) tend to place them with the more mature economies of Europe. Nevertheless, Russian businesspeople do not seem to see complexity as a major bar to reorganization, and they welcome the opportunities it presents. Businesspeople in Russia tend to be more optimistic about the potential for complexity to create opportunities. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 58 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Four out of five Singapore businesspeople believe complexity provides expansion opportunities in new markets. Singapore Survey respondents in Singapore overwhelmingly believe that business complexity has increased over the past two years. With a 64 percent net increase in the perception of complexity, only the South Africans, South Koreans, Chinese and Italians reported a more pronounced rise. Some 50 percent of Singapore firms believe the increase has been somewhat significant, while a further 22 percent think it has been very significant. Singapore businesspeople are split on the reasons for the increase in complexity. The economic environment/ recession is considered at least partly to blame by 23 percent. Market rules and regulation changes, and increasing competition, are also strong factors (both 18 percent), although rules and regulations are thought to be less of an issue than in most other countries – the global average is 26 percent. only 4 percent. Instead, by far the most significant cause is believed to be government oversight (48 percent). Tax policy, at 34 percent, is also a major trigger for complexity, although the burden of regulation (excluding tax) appears far less of an issue than elsewhere – highlighted by only 26 percent of Singapore respondents, compared to a global average of 42 percent. There is little hope of business complexity easing in Singapore over the next two years. Two thirds of firms believe there will be some sort of increase, ranging from minimal to very significant. Conversely, only 32 percent expect complexity to ease or remain the same. Matching the picture worldwide, businesses in Singapore identify two major risks associated with increased complexity – increased costs (84 percent), and more risks to manage (80 percent). Although the need for new skills to offset these challenges is recognized by 68 percent of respondents, it appears to be a less significant issue here than in other Asia-Pacific (China – 92 percent, Japan – 90 percent and South Korea – 82 percent). Although a large majority of Singapore firms, 82 percent, believe that operating in more countries contributes to business complexity, when asked to define only the most relevant factors, operating in more countries registers © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. S i n g ap o r e | 59 Offsetting these risks, some 82 percent of Singapore respondents believe complexity creates new opportunities – the highest of the Asia-Pacific economies. Four out of five Singapore businesspeople believe that complexity provides an opportunity to expand into new markets, while 68 percent thought it would allow them to build a competitive advantage or create new business strategies. The management requirements imposed by operating in more countries are expected to cause further complexity over the coming two years, identified by 57 percent of respondents (global average, 46 percent). However, even more believe the biggest cause of rising future complexity will be Singapore’s tax policies (64 percent). Beyond the taxation element, general regulation is not thought to be especially troubling, noted by just 46 percent of Singapore firms – considerably less than most European countries and North America. The global average for regulation as a key future cause of complexity is 63 percent. and reorganizing all or parts of their business (68 percent). A large proportion (64 percent, against a global average of just 49 percent) have attempted to tackle complexity by investing in new countries or geographies, although far fewer than the global average (30 percent against 45 percent) undertook mergers and acquisitions. Tactics to address complexity will differ among Singapore businesses over the next two years. Although improving information management is the most common method cited, at 38 percent it is much less than the global average of 73 percent, matched only by Spain. Some Singapore firms will try influencing public policies or reorganizing their businesses (both 29 percent), although these again lag behind the worldwide averages of 40 percent and 59 percent, respectively. Very few Singapore businesses will attempt to combat complexity with mergers and acquisitions (15 percent) or by changing their approach to human resources (18 percent). Corroborating the actions taken by the majority of other countries worldwide, businesses in Singapore have focused on two primary areas for improving how they manage complexity – better information management (90 percent) © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 60 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y South Africa Business complexity has increased in South Africa over the past two years – that’s the view of 84 percent of companies surveyed. Most (78 percent) believe the rise in complexity has been significant. Only six percent are inclined to say the rise has been minimal. The perceived reasons for this increase correspond in general to the wider global picture. The most common cause cited is market rules and regulation changes, identified by 29 percent, followed by the economic environment and recession, at 26 percent, closely matching the global averages of 26 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Complexity in South Africa is widely expected to rise further over the next two years. Whereas only 8 percent of firms quizzed anticipate a simpler business environment, 68 percent foresee more complexity, with the majority of those – 56 percent – predicting a significant increase. Regulation shoulders much of the blame for the rise in complexity, identified as one of the two dominant causes by 60 percent of firms – the highest in the survey. Government oversight comes a distant second with 32 percent, but this is considerably higher than the global average of 21 percent, and joint third in the survey behind Italy and Singapore. However, tax policy is hardly considered a factor at all, considered an issue by just 4 percent of South African businesspeople, compared to the global average for this category of 26 percent. Like elsewhere around the world, increased costs (86 percent) and having more risks to manage (81 percent) were considered the two main challenges associated with complexity in business today. However, diverging from the global pattern, delays in sealing deals and transactions was raised as an issue by 80 percent of respondents, considerably more than the average of 58 percent, and joint highest in the survey, alongside China. South African respondents were bullish that complexity can create new opportunities, with some 82 percent seeing the potential for exploiting complexity to their advantage. Of those, 88 percent – second only to Sweden – believe they have the opportunity to © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. S o u t h Af r i ca | 61 gain a competitive advantage. A large proportion, 80 percent (global average 58 percent), argue that it can help focus existing business strategies. some 36 percent, less than half the proportion opting for this method in China, India and Brazil (85 percent, 80 percent and 76 percent, respectively). Looking ahead, South African firms strongly believe that regulation will be one of the major causes of increased complexity over the next two years. With 79 percent subscribing to this view, this trails behind Canada and Ireland but far exceeds the global average of 63 percent. Tax policy, on the other hand, is considered far less relevant in South Africa, raised by just 36 percent of respondents, against the global average of 52 percent. Mergers and acquisitions and operating in more countries are likely to be far more prominent drivers of complexity, each cited by 64 percent of South African firms quizzed, the second highest proportions worldwide in their respective categories. More than anywhere else, South African companies expect different or additional measures over the next two years to overcome complexity. Improving information management will be undertaken by 87 percent of firms, while 68 percent will reorganize all or part of their businesses. A globally disproportionate figure – 61 percent as opposed to an average of 42 percent – will try investing in new countries or geographies, suggesting a gradual widening of business focus for South African businesses. The last two years appear to have been a time of great change for many South African companies, with 82 percent – more than any other country in the survey – reporting reorganizations of all or part of their businesses to help manage complexity. In line with the rest of the world, even more (88 percent) concentrated on improving information management. Only a fraction changed their approach to human resources, South African firms are unanimous that managing complexity is important to their company’s success. Almost as strong are the beliefs that businesses will need to attract new skills to face issues arising from complexity (94 percent), and that governments should work together to simplify the regulatory process (96 percent). Complexity in South Africa is widely expected to rise further, largely due to regulation. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 62 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y 74% Looking ahead two years, mergers and acquisitions are expected to contribute to further complexity. South Korea South Korean respondents have reported a deepening level of complexity in their business dealings over the past two years. 84 percent of South Korean businesspeople say complexity has increased very or somewhat significantly during this period. The remainder say the situation has been stable and none believe that complexity levels have fallen. The perceived reasons for this rise in complexity differ from the general picture worldwide. Although market rules/regulation changes and economic environment/recession are deemed in some way accountable (21 percent and 17 percent, respectively, against global averages of 26 percent and 23 percent), the most commonly cited factor in South Korea is increasing competition (33 percent). India is the only other country in the survey to take this view. Looking ahead, whereas most countries are expecting a further increase in complexity over the next two years, the picture in South Korea is slightly different. Here, there is an equal split between companies anticipating an additional rise in complexity and those who are expecting a levelling off or even a decrease. In terms of key factors causing complexity, South Korea mirrors the global trend, splitting the attribution between regulation (42 percent) and tax (32 percent). Regulation in particular seems to be an even more significant factor in South Korea than in its Asia-Pacific neighbours, Singapore (26 percent), Japan (30 percent) and China (33 percent). Several challenges are identified by South Korean firms as side effects of complexity. The three major challenges – more risks to manage (90 percent), the need for new skills (82 percent) and increased costs (74 percent), align neatly with the global picture. But relatively few businesspeople in South Korea say that complexity makes it more difficult to compete – only 58 percent, as opposed to a worldwide average of 67 percent. Almost four-fifths of South Korean firms see opportunities as well as challenges in complexity. Principally, 85 percent of respondents believe there is an opportunity for gaining a competitive advantage – considerably higher than the global average of 73 percent, and © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. S o u th Ko r e a | 63 far outstripping the weightings in this category for China (51 percent), Japan (68 percent) or Singapore (68 percent). A high proportion of companies also see the chance to make their businesses more efficient and create new or better strategies – 74 percent and 77 percent, respectively. Turning the clock forward two years, a dominant 74 percent of respondents in South Korea predict that mergers and acquisitions will contribute towards further complexity. This is the highest vote for this cause in the survey, pointing to a very active M&A market in this part of the world in the next two years. Tax policy and information management – 57 percent each – are also expected to be key contributors towards additional complexity in business. In harmony with the vast majority of other countries in the survey, South Korean firms have concentrated on two key tactics to counteract increasing complexity so far; improving information management (88 percent) and reorganizing all or part of the business (74 percent). Over the next two years, and in line with the global trend, the same two methods are expected to be further employed to help control complexity (improving information management – 81 percent; reorganizing all or part of the business – 65 percent), with attempts to influence public policy and modifying approaches to human resources (50 percent each) also playing a part. All of the South Korean firms surveyed believe that governments should work together to make the global regulatory environment less complex. The South Koreans seem to place a far greater emphasis on international cooperation than companies elsewhere in their region. This collaborative approach was advocated by only 73 percent of Chinese firms, 82 percent of Japanese firms and 88 percent of firms in Singapore. Like the vast majority of countries, however, South Korean businesspeople believe strongly that managing complexity is important to their companies’ success (94 percent), that businesses will need to acquire new skills to address complexity (92 percent) and that overall regulation needs to be streamlined (92 percent). © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 64 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Spain Despite the effect that the global recession has had on the Spanish economy, from the results of this survey Spanish businesses seem determined to work through the complexities generated by their current crisis and plan to expand into international markets over the next few years. In fact, according to Spanish respondents, international expansion is a popular method for relieving organizational complexity. Overall, Spanish respondents report seeing a net increase in complexity over the past two years, with more than a third calling it ‘very significant’ and another third defining it as ‘somewhat significant.’ Only two percent claim to have met a net decrease in their business complexity over the same timeframe. Much of this complexity comes from the global market difficulties of the past few years. Given the sovereign debt and economic stability considerations that were current as this survey was conducted, it is to be expected that Spanish respondents were more likely than their global counterparts to cite the economic recession and market crisis as the primary drivers of complexity over the recent past. Spanish businesspeople said that their current complexities are largely government related, with 42 percent citing tax policy as one of their top two causes, and 34 percent identifying other regulatory complexities. While businesspeople in Spain agreed with the majority of nations polled that complexity was increasing the number of risks they have to manage, they were more likely than any other European country to cite difficulties in competing as a direct result. However, Spanish businesspeople seemed to be less worried than many others about the increased cost of complexity (cited by less than half of Spanish respondents versus a global average of almost 80 percent), and any difficulties managing change (with 42 percent selecting this option versus the global norm of 58 percent). Looking ahead, however, businesspeople from Spain were split when predicting the future trajectory for complexity in their business; 52 percent suggested some form of increase, while 48 percent suggested either a net decrease or overall stability. Spanish respondents are more optimistic than most when it comes to the potential for opportunities that may © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Sp ai n | 65 result from complexity. In this regard, Spanish businesspeople diverge from the global norm in two ways: they are almost two-thirds less likely to see opportunities in the creation of new business strategies (28 percent, as opposed to 72 percent globally) and almost equally unlikely to presuppose opportunities through focusing on their existing strategy (20 percent, versus a global average of 58 percent). Rather, Spanish respondents to our survey clearly indicated an expectation that they will expand into international markets; almost seven in 10 suggested that opportunities may present themselves in foreign expansion, far more than any other potential opportunity. They were more likely to say that they would invest in new markets as a strategy for addressing complexity in the future, and – possibly as a result – when asked what the future causes of complexity might be for their company over the next two years, almost half of Spanish respondents cited complexities related to operating in more countries. According to respondents from Spain, tax policy will continue to be a cause of complexity in the future, and – to a lesser extent – the ongoing influence of changing regulation. And while respondents overwhelmingly (86 percent) pointed to advances in information management as a key action their company had taken to address complexity in the past, less than half of them suggested that it was a strategy that they were likely to adopt in the future. On this point, Spanish respondents also diverged significantly from the global norm, as almost 75 percent of respondents cited information management as a potential future strategy (versus Spain’s 38 percent). Interestingly, only 15 percent of Spanish respondents suggested they might explore changes in their approach to HR (versus almost half of the global response), and not a single Spanish respondent said they would consider trying to influence regulation or public policy, whereas 40 percent of global respondents said they would. The findings of this survey strongly suggest that Spanish businesspeople believe themselves to be in the process of working through the complexities that they face, especially tax and regulatory concerns. But they are confident that they will work through these problems, and are looking forward to an easing in complexity as the effects of the recession recede, and to the opportunities that they see on the horizon through foreign and market expansion. Spanish respondents are more optimistic than most about potential opportunities resulting from complexity. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 66 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Swedish businesspeople are most optimistic about gaining competitive advantage as a result of increased complexity. Sweden Swedish responses to the Complexity Survey tended to agree with the global averages achieved across the 22 countries surveyed. Swedes generally felt that complexity had increased in their businesses over the past two years; with 28 percent claiming that their level of complexity had increased ‘very significantly,’ and 44 percent categorizing it as ‘somewhat significant.’ However, it is worth noting that almost three in 10 respondents said they felt that the level of complexity had stayed the same. According to Swedish respondents, there are two main factors driving their increase in complexity: the first, cited by 31 percent, was related to changes in regulation, market rules and controls. Only slightly less of a factor, at 28 percent, was the impact of increasing competition. Very few Swedish businesspeople expect to see a ‘very significant’ increase in the level of complexity over the next two years, but more than half (56 percent) suggested it might be ‘somewhat significant.’ Only two percent thought it might decrease. In identifying the top two factors that currently cause business complexity, Swedes again agreed with the majority of global respondents, with almost 40 percent citing non-tax regulations. But second to this, 38 percent of Swedish businesspeople indicated that they had also met complexity by operating in more countries, more than twice as many as the global average. On the other hand, Swedes were much less likely than their global peers to indicate that either tax policy or information management had been much of an issue, with only 10 percent identifying each of these factors, versus approximately 25 percent globally. Once again, Swedish businesspeople agreed with their global counterparts in identifying an increased burden of risk as a challenge directly resulting from complexity, as well as the need to acquire new skills. And while not a top issue, over 70 percent of Swedes did admit that they also had faced difficulties in making management decisions as a result of complexity, higher than the 58 percent global average. The Swedes were, however, more optimistic than many other countries in seeing opportunities that could © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Swe d e n | 67 be created by complexity. Indeed, they were – by far – the most likely to suggest that they might be able to gain competitive advantage, with 93 percent identifying this as a potential outcome. And while the opportunities presented through creating new products and designing new strategies came a distant second (at 75 percent and 78 percent, respectively), these were still above the global average. felt that their companies may take different actions in the future to manage complexity. In this regard, almost nine out of 10 respondents from Sweden identified improving their information management as a top priority, the highest proportion of all countries surveyed, and well above the global average of 73 percent. A distant second, at 61 percent of respondents, was further business reorganization. Respondents from Sweden did not tend to believe that the root causes of complexity would change substantially over the next two years, which was consistent with most European nations surveyed. Of those that did, most (69 percent) believed that those causes would largely be related to non-tax regulation. Conversely, the factors least cited by the Swedish were government oversight and tax policies (both at 25 percent). So while Swedish businesspeople tended to agree with their global counterparts overall, they are acutely aware of the impact that non-tax regulation and expansion into other markets may have on their overall level of complexity. And if these findings are any indication, we can expect the Swedes to be investing heavily in their information management systems in the near future. Turning to actions taken to deal with complexity, Swedish businesspeople seem to have focused on improving information management and reorganizing part, or all, of their businesses. And while almost three quarters of respondents cited both of these actions, more than half said they had also conducted M&As, and a similar number pointed to investments in new countries or geographies. Looking ahead, more than half of Swedish businesspeople surveyed © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 68 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Switzerland Businesspeople in Switzerland believe that they have faced some increases in complexity over the past two years, but very few (16 percent) are willing to categorize them as ‘very significant.’ And while the Swiss agree with the majority of their peers that changes in controls, rules and regulations have caused increased complexity over the past two years, they are twice as likely as any other country to cite technological advancement as another source. The Swiss were also keen to identify government oversight as one of their current causes of complexity, though it should be noted that three separate, yet inter-related, factors were cited almost equally often: government oversight (70 percent), regulation (72 percent) and tax policy (68 percent). It should come as no surprise that more than 85 percent of Swiss respondents agreed with statements that call for less complex regulation and increased cooperation between governments to create a more straightforward regulatory environment. As a result of increased complexity overall, the majority of Swiss respondents (84 percent) felt that they were currently facing an increased burden of risk, and around two-thirds admit facing challenges through increased costs (64 percent), difficulty competing (68 percent) or the need for new skills (66 percent). Looking ahead, Swiss respondents seem to be less inclined to presuppose any serious increase in complexity over the next two years, and a considerable number – 42 percent – do not expect any change to occur in the level of complexity at all. The Swiss were slightly less optimistic about the opportunities that may result from increased complexity, however, and while 70 percent agreed that opportunities would arise, this is below the global average at 74 percent. Of those that did see opportunities, the majority (86 percent) identified competitive advantages as a potential gain, with seven in 10 expecting to see opportunities arise through the creation of new products or the development of new and better strategies. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Sw i tze r l an d | 69 Less than a third of Swiss respondents felt that the root causes of complexity would change over the next two years, versus almost half of their global counterparts who believe that it will. But when asked what the future causes of complexity may be, almost 70 percent of Swiss respondents again cited increased government oversight as their primary concern – the only nation to do so. Slightly less of a focus was regulation, at 63 percent. With the exception of Singapore, Swiss respondents are also the most likely to cite investment in new countries or geographies as an action that has in the past helped to improve their management of complexity. However, more respondents cited improved information management (74 percent) and business reorganization (68 percent), than foreign expansion (62 percent). Looking ahead, exactly half of Swiss respondents expected their companies to take a different set of actions to address complexity in the future, though this number is low in comparison to the 59 percent global average. Eight in 10 foresaw improvements in their information management, and 64 percent felt that further reorganization might be in order. Foreign expansion, by comparison, was selected by less than half the respondents as a potential strategy for addressing complexity in the future. The survey results suggest that businesspeople in Switzerland seem to be more comfortable with the pace of complexity than many of their global counterparts, and – on the whole – feel that their current strategies and actions for managing complexity are on the right track. Most, it seems, will be focusing their attention on IT and information management solutions over the next two years – with the expectation of solving some of the complexities that are facing them, particularly from continued regulatory changes and government oversight. 50% Exactly half of Swiss respondents expect to take different actions to address complexity in the future. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 70 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y Uniquely among European countries, UK respondents cite higher costs as their biggest challenge. UK Although a large majority of UK businesspeople report an increase in business complexity over the past two years, the magnitude of that complexity is one of the lowest in the survey. Nearly eight in 10 respondents believe it is now more complicated to do business than two years ago, but just 18 percent believe the increase has been very significant. The majority, 61 percent, believe the increase has been somewhat significant or minimal. Only in Switzerland and Italy did fewer respondents identify a very significant increase. The overriding reasons for the increase in the complexity of conducting business on British shores are clear. Market rules and changes in regulation were identified as among the top two causes by 46 percent of UK businesspeople – the highest single response from any country within this category. This is particularly high compared to results from the Far East, where few respondents (China, 8 percent, Japan, 18 percent, South Korea, 21 per cent) believe regulation and rules are among the top factors driving complexity. Almost a quarter of UK respondents (23 percent) also highlight the recession as a key factor behind the rise in complexity. Looking ahead over the next two years, only 12 percent of UK respondents are predicting a very significant further increase in complexity. This is roughly in line with the UK’s European counterparts, but less than half the percentage recorded for markets further afield such as China, Japan and Brazil, and much less than the 34 percent recorded in India. A much larger proportion of UK businesspeople are anticipating a moderately significant increase in complexity (34 percent), or even that the situation will remain the same (30 percent). Uniquely among European countries, UK respondents identified higher costs as the biggest challenge they face due to increased complexity (86 percent). This is in line with more geographically distant economies such as South Africa, China, India, Japan, Singapore and Australia – the other countries where higher costs were highlighted as the major challenge. Having a greater number of risks to manage (74 percent) and the need for new skills (70 percent) are also major challenges © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. U K | 71 associated with greater business complexity in the UK. More than seven in 10 UK respondents believe that new opportunities can be created as a result of rising business complexity. 86 percent see the potential for new and better strategies to emerge – globally, only Mexico (98 percent) and Brazil (88 percent) argue this more strongly. UK businesses are also confident that gaining competitive advantages and focusing on existing business strategies (83 percent each) will emerge as opportunities resulting from increased complexity. Only 55 percent think the creation of new products is a likely side effect of complexity, one of the lowest in the survey, exhibiting far less confidence than countries such as Germany and Russia, where four-fifths of respondents who see opportunities arising cite the chance to make new products. In line with the reasons given for the rise in complexity over the past two years, UK businesspeople believe that government regulation will be the strongest driver of increased complexity in future. Some three quarters of the respondents (76 percent) declared that regulation would be the primary cause of rising complexity. Sixty nine percent highlighted the prospect of operating in more countries as causing future complexity – disproportionately high compared to the global average of 46 percent, and second only to Mexico (70 percent). Most UK companies (81 percent) have focused on improving their information management in response to rising complexity. Reorganizing the business has been on the agenda for seven out of 10 UK companies. In contrast, only 30 percent of UK firms have changed their approach to human resources – the lowest total worldwide outside of Scandinavia. This trend will continue over the next two years, with improving information management (82 percent) and business reorganization (71 percent) identified as the core tactics for dealing with the changes. This is an issue UK companies are clearly taking seriously – with 95 percent recognizing managing complexity as important to their ongoing success. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 72 | C on fron ting Com p lex it y US US respondents strongly believe that business has increased in complexity over the past two years. A total of 77 percent of respondents argue that complexity has increased ‘very or somewhat significantly’, while only one in 20 thinks business is simpler than before. Firms overwhelmingly cite two factors to account for this increasing complexity. Of those surveyed, 37 percent believe market rules and regulation changes have played a part – second only to the UK’s 46 percent. The economic environment and recession was also identified as a key reason by 28 percent of businesses, 5 percent higher than the global average. Increasing competition and pressures from globalization, at 10 percent and 2 percent respectively, are deemed far less significant factors for Americans than in most other countries worldwide. When looking ahead over the next two years, complexity is generally expected to increase further. Sixty three percent of respondents predict that complexity will increase very or somewhat significantly. Less than one in 10 forecast a simplified business landscape. In line with most other places in the world, regulation is held largely accountable for complexity in business today, with 43 percent of US businesses identifying it as one of the two key reasons. Far fewer think tax policy is contributing to the complexity issue (20 percent – 6 percent below the global average). Information management appears to be more vexing, being highlighted as one of the top two complexity triggers by 34 percent of US firms, trailing only Canada and Australia on the global scene. Corresponding with the general picture worldwide, having more risks to manage (90 percent) and increased costs (86 percent) were the major challenges created by rising complexity. Approximately three quarters of the US businesspeople questioned see potential opportunities in this increased complexity, primarily in creating new and better business strategies (73 percent) and making their companies more efficient (68 percent). And 65 percent believe that complexity can help them gain a competitive advantage over rivals, reflecting a fundamental optimism about business opportunity. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. U S | 73 Over the next two years, just over half of US firms expect the driving forces behind rising complexity to change, with regulation (72 percent) and government oversight (65 percent, third behind Mexico and Sweden) continuing as the main causes. Although operating in more countries and conducting mergers and acquisitions were highlighted by 33 percent and 31 percent of US respondents, respectively, both these factors are predicted to have less significance in the US than on the global stage, where they were highlighted by 46 percent and 43 percent, respectively, perhaps due to successful historical experience with mergers and acquisitions. In terms of challenges presented by complexity, 90 percent of respondents in the US see a straightforward increase in the number of risks that need to be managed. In response, they have focused on two areas to improve the way they handle complexity; 80 percent have improved information management, while 60 percent have reorganized all or part of their businesses. Far fewer firms than the global average (38 percent, as opposed to 49 percent) have made investing in new countries part of their response. A high percentage, 71 percent, of US businesspeople are anticipating different strategies over the next two years to tackle complexity. Far fewer (39 percent) will be concentrating on reorganizing their businesses, and slightly fewer (70 percent) will be further improving information management. Meanwhile, 44 percent will attempt to influence regulation or public policy. Investing in new countries (25 percent, compared to a global average of 42 percent, the lowest in the survey) and carrying out mergers and acquisitions (27 percent, compared to a global average of 43 percent, the second lowest in the survey after Singapore’s 15 percent) appear to be comparatively unpopular plans. Despite only one in four American firms contemplating expanding into new countries to combat complexity, 93 percent believe that governments need to work together to make the global regulatory environment more streamlined. And a similarly high proportion (94 percent) concur that managing complexity is integral to the success of their business. 93% 93 percent believe that governments need to work together to make the global regulatory environment more streamlined. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. kpmg.com The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. © 2011 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Designed by Evalueserve. Publication name: Confronting Complexity: Research Findings and Insights Publication number: 110307 Publication date: May 2011