Policy Analysis Coping with large amounts of wind power – Institutional challenges and Sino-Danish cooperation Anders Højgaard Kristensen, DANISH ENERGY AGENCY Introduction Renewable energy grows rapidly in China. Many obstacles have been overcome while others persist. Today the grid connection issue is among the most challenging. Both institutional and technical barriers exist. But the institutional challenges appear to be the hardest to overcome. CNREC cooperates with the DEA in the framework of the RED programme. During the recent months information on development of the Danish electricity system, the Nordic power market and management of grid integration has been exchanged. Denmark and the other Nordic countries have undergone a transition from full price and monopoly regulation to unbundled activities and a market based pricing for most generation. There are many similarities to the indented development in the regulation of the Chinese power market. 20 China Renewable Energy Policy Analysis Development of the regulatory regime for wind turbines in Denmark A big institutional reform of the Danish electricity market took place 13 years ago in 1999. It was partly initiated by requirements from the European Union demanding power generation and trade to be separated (unbundled) from monopoly activities such as transmission and distribution and system operation. Apart from the EU requirements it also was inspired by the electricity market reform in England & Wales in 1989, as well as by widely held beliefs that increased competition would raise efficiency of the power sector to the benefit of consumers. Both the development in the UK and later in the entire EU were driven by the general opinion that due to lack of immediate price signals investments in power generation in the old regime was higher than development in demand required. By the time of implementation of the electricity market reform there were also doubts. One common claim was that the traditional vertical integration facilitated a high level of security of supply and possibility of an overall economic optimization that were likely to exceed the efficiency increases resulting from competition in generation and sales. Another claim was that the major power companies were large enough to be able to exercise market power and thus prevent much of the potential gains of competition to be realized. Today most stakeholders recognize that the Nordic electricity market has improved economic efficiency in the generation sector and despite higher price volatility for costumers and a more complex institutional setup, introduction of the market model has added one of the most important institutional measures to the integration of wind into the power market. Before the regulatory reform the Danish power market – though much smaller – had a lot of similarities to the Chinese power market. As an example there were only two significant producers also responsible for transmission and system operation and load dispatch was carried out by these companies dominant in the generation sector. Further there was no free choice of supplier for consumers. Before the reform economic regulation stipulated that tariffs could cover expenses only, it was changed with removal of economic regulation on generation. This reform gave equal opportunities to generation no matter technology. In the early phase of the wind turbine era, which was 35 years ago in Denmark, there were a lot of challenges to be connected to the grid. After some years (in 1984) government intervened and issued regulation which imposed an obligation to grid owners to connect as well as defined the cost sharing. Grid owners decide the voltage level for connection, they have the obligation to expand the grid to the new turbines and reinforce their grid if necessary. On the other hand owners of the new turbines have to pay for the connection equipment to the point of connection. After this political intervention grid connection has not been a serious issue. The regulation remains in force almost unchanged. Nordic Power Market Before the national regulatory reform another important development took place. In the early 1990’ies Norwegians initiated a Nordic regional electricity trading exchange called NordPool. Denmark joined in the second part of the 1990’ies. It consists of several trading platforms. The spot market and the intra-day market ease the integration of wind power. Generators and traders offer electricity for sale. Owners of wind turbines base their offers on meteorological forecasting which will be more and more precise the closer you come to real time. Market trading reduces significantly the need for China Renewable Energy 21 Policy Analysis physical reserves and balancing capacity. In reality the historical load dispatch is abolished and replaced by a price equilibrium from the trading platform where output from all generation technologies are mixed up and the system operator balance the system according to trading curves. Before the market reforms in the 1990’ies the structure and way of operation of the Danish power system looked very similar to the present Chinese setup. (However, there were also some differences. E.g. payment for generation from coal fired power plants was not directly regulated as is the case in China today) Integration of Wind The share of wind generation in Denmark was 28% compared to domestic demand in 2011, a big increase from 22% the year before, see graph below for the historic development The share is foreseen to pass the 30% in 2012 or 2013 due to continued connection of wind turbines. A political agreement concluded in Parliament in March this year contains also the support regime for various RES technologies and stipulates that the 50% share of wind will be reached by 2020. This high share has been possible thanks to strong interconnectors, increasing flexibility in other generation output and not least grid and system operators have had many years to adjust to this type of generation. Challenges with wind integration in China Construct ruction of wind turbines in China has been tremendous in recent years. During a couple of years capacity doubled year-by-year. According to CWEA,by end of 2011 installed capacity was 62.36GW. Wind resources are best in Inner Mongolia and there is thus a concentration of turbine capacity in this region. It’s been a huge challenge to connect the turbines to the grid as fast as they are constructed. Grid companies are legally obliged to connect new wind turbines to grid, but according to CWEA many of the regions 150 windfarms operate at low utilization rates. Due to low utilization many investors face according to CWEC economic losses. Again according to CWEC output from wind turbines in China could have been 10 TWh higher in 2011 if there were no restrictions such as delayed grid connection and generation curtailments. Historically the large coal fires power plants have included in their permission a right to operate equivalent to a minimum number of full-load hours per year. The payment received for the power production is fixed by NDRC. Therefore owners of coal fired power plants have no incentives to reduce output to make room for wind power in periods with strong winds and since they are operating at full load most of the time they are not able to increase generation in periods with low winds. Another important issue is that the regional transmission grids are operated autonomously. Some interconnections exist, but since pricing of exchanged electricity is not dynamic, interconnectors are only to a limited extent used for 22 China Renewable Energy Policy Analysis wind power integration. There are some interconnectors between some of the regional grids, which can prove valuable for wind integration if trading procedures are arranged according to the new needs. New expensive Direct Current long distance lines are not always the most cost efficient measure for grid integration. Experience from the Danish system with integration of wind: Below is listed the most relevant Danish experience with integration of wind: - T h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l N o rd P o o l trading platform has proved to be a cost efficient tool to cope with large amounts of wind. It significantly reduce the need for national reserve capacity - Shot trading lead times up to one hour before time of generation reduce the need for balancing since one-hour forecasts are rather precise. - T h e d y n a m i c m a r k e t p r i c e sends incentives to fossil based generation to respond on the price signals. At strong winds there is incentive to reduce output; at low winds there is incentive to increase output from other generation. - D y n a m i c m a r k e t p r i c e s g i v e positive business cases to invest in refurbishment of existing power plants to enable higher flexibility i.e. operation at low output. agreement stipulates 50% wind in 2020. Going from 30 % to 50 % will probably also require flexibility in domestic demand. Many resources are presently used to develop and test ways to increase flexibility and price elasticity in domestic demand. - Danish Grid code requires that c o a l f i re d p o w e r p l a n t s c a n regulate down to no more than 35% of rated output (Pmin). Today the typical Pmin at modern coal fired power plants in Denmark is around 10% and with adjustments to flame profiles in the boiler, operation of coal mills etc. Pmin is now seen as low as 4-5% of Pmax Conclusion - I n t e r c o n n e c t i o n b e t w e e n national transmission systems in neighbouring countries makes room for much more wind (in china the equivalent is interconnection between the regional transmission systems). Larger systems are able to absorb more fluctuating generation without the need for investment in expensive dedicated long transmission lines with low load factors. Many of these measures applied in a Scandinavian context will probably also be relevant in a Chinese context to ease flexibility of other generation, to apply market principles for cost efficient regulation and balancing and thirdly to use interaction between regional transmission grids. With this set-up Denmark is able to cope with 28% wind on an annual b a s i s ( 2 0 11 ) w i t h t h e 3 0 % i n immediate sight. A recent political Integration of large amounts of wind is a serious challenge. Apart from technical issues the regulatory constraints are very important to remove. The Danish example – though very small in comparison – shows that 30% integration is possible. This article lists some of the most important regulatory measures. Anders Kristensen, Policy adviser of Danish Energy Agency with 18 years experience from regulation of the D anis h electricity s e c t o r and from cooperation with energy administrations in transitional and emerging economies globally. 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