TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2. Methodology and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. Economy-wide Trends in Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4. Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
5. Households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
6. Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
7. Passenger Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
8. Freight Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
9. Trends in CO2 Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
10. Conclusions and Implications for the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
List of Figures
Chapter 2 – Methodology and Data
Figure 2-1. Model of Energy and CO2 Emissions Decomposition ................. 27
Figure 2-2. Sectors, Sub-sectors, and End Uses in the IEA Indicator Approach 29
Chapter 3 – Economy-wide Trends in Energy Use
Figure 3-1. Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel, IEA Countries................... 35
Figure 3-2. Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel, IEA Countries............. 36
Figure 3-3. Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector, IEA-11 .................... 37
Figure 3-4. Oil Demand by Sector, IEA-11 ................................................... 39
Figure 3-5. Electricity Demand by Sector, IEA-11 ......................................... 40
Figure 3-6. Fossil Fuel Prices in Real Terms .................................................. 41
Figure 3-7. TPES per GDP, TFC per GDP and TPES per TFC, IEA Countries ... 42
Figure 3-8. TFC per Unit of GDP ................................................................. 43
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Figure 3-9. Minimum and Maximum versus IEA -13 Average Values
for Key Factors Affecting Energy Use......................................... 44
Figure 3-10. Changes in TFC/GDP Decomposed into Changes in
Energy Services/GDP and Intensity Effect ................................ 46
Figure 3-11. Changes in TFC, GDP, Energy Service Demand and
Intensities, IEA-11.................................................................... 48
Figure 3-12. TFC per GDP, and Impacts from Changes in Energy Services
per GDP and Energy Intensities, IEA-11................................... 49
Figure 3-13. Changes in TFC, GDP, TFC/GDP, Energy Services/GDP,
and Intensity Effect, 1994-1998 .............................................. 50
Figure 3-14. Changes in the Ratio of Key Sub-sectoral Activity Levels to GDP 51
Figure 3-15. Sector Intensities and Total Economy Effect, IEA-11 ................. 53
Figure 3-16. Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use
without Intensity Reductions, IEA-11 ....................................... 54
Figure 3-17. Actual Energy Use in 1990 and 1998 and Two Hypothetical
Energy Savings Cases, IEA-11 .................................................. 55
Figure 3-18. Changes in Economy-Wide Energy Intensity Effect .................. 57
Figure 3-19. Changes in Energy Service Demand, Intensity Effect
and Actual Energy Use ........................................................... 58
Figure 3-20. Actual Energy Use and Energy Savings ................................... 60
Figure 3-21. Contribution to Energy Savings from Sectors and End Uses..... 61
Chapter 4 – Manufacturing
Figure 4-1. Manufacturing Energy Use by Fuel, IEA Countries ..................... 65
Figure 4-2. Energy Use by Manufacturing Sub-Sector, IEA-11 ...................... 66
Figure 4-3. Manufacturing Output, Shares of Manufacturing in GDP
and of Raw Materials in Manufacturing Output, IEA-11 ............. 67
Figure 4-4. Shares of Manufacturing Value-added in Total GDP
and Raw Materials in Total Manufacturing Value-added ............ 68
Figure 4-5. Energy Use per Unit of Manufacturing Value-added.................. 69
Figure 4-6. Sub-sector Energy Intensities, Value-added and Energy Shares,
IEA-11 ....................................................................................... 70
Figure 4-7. Decomposition of Changes in Manufacturing Energy Use,
1973 - 1998.............................................................................. 71
Figure 4-8. Decomposition of Changes in Manufacturing Energy Use, IEA-11 72
Figure 4-9. Decomposition of Changes in Manufacturing Energy Use,
1994-1998................................................................................ 73
Figure 4-10. Manufacturing Energy Intensity Adjusted for Structural Changes
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Figure 4-11. Evolution of Sub-sector Energy Intensities, IEA-11.................... 76
Figure 4-12. Reduction in Energy Use from Changes in Structure and
Intensities, IEA-11.................................................................... 77
Figure 4-13. Real Prices for Industrial Light Fuel Oil .................................... 78
Figure 4-14. Share of Energy Expenditures in Sub-sector Intermediate
Product Costs.......................................................................... 79
Figure 4-15. Decomposition of Energy Costs per Value-added for
Primary Metals Production....................................................... 81
Chapter 5 – Households
Figure 5-1. Residential Energy Use by Fuel, IEA-11...................................... 86
Figure 5-2. Residential Energy Use by End Use, IEA-11 ............................... 87
Figure 5-3. Energy Use per Capita by End Use, Actual versus
Normalised to Common Climate................................................ 88
Figure 5-4. Space Heating Energy Use per Capita, Actual versus
Normalised to Common Climate................................................ 90
Figure 5-5. House Area per Capita and Personal Consumption
Expenditures, 1970-1998 .......................................................... 92
Figure 5-6. Share of Space Heating by Fuel................................................. 95
Figure 5-7. Ratio of Final Energy to Useful Energy for Space Heating.......... 96
Figure 5-8. Useful Space Heating Intensity .................................................. 97
Figure 5-9. Decomposition of Changes in per Capita Space Heating,
1973-1998................................................................................ 98
Figure 5-10. Residential Electricity Demand by End Use, IEA-11 .................. 99
Figure 5-11. Share of Total Electricity Use for Miscellaneous Appliances ...... 101
Figure 5-12. Decomposition of Changes in Total Residential Energy Use,
IEA-11..................................................................................... 102
Figure 5-13. Actual Climate-Corrected Energy Use and Hypothetical
Energy Use without Intensity Reductions, IEA-11..................... 103
Figure 5-14. Residential Electricity Prices in Real Terms, Including Taxes ...... 104
Figure 5-15. Electricity Prices and Fuel-weighted Price per Unit of
Useful Space Heat, 1998......................................................... 105
Figure 5-16. Shares of Residential Energy Expenditures by End Use ............ 106
Figure 5-17. Share of Residential Energy Expenditures in Total Personal
Consumption Expenditures ..................................................... 107
Figure 5-18. Decomposition of Changes in Residential Energy
Expenditures per Unit of Income............................................. 108
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Chapter 6 – Service
Figure 6-1. Energy Use in Service Sector by Fuel, IEA-11 ............................. 111
Figure 6-2. Share of Service Sector in Total GDP.......................................... 112
Figure 6-3. Service Sector Floor Area per Capita and Value-added
per Capita, 1970-1999 .............................................................. 113
Figure 6-4. Service Sector Electricity Use per Capita and Value-added
per Capita, 1970-1999 .............................................................. 114
Figure 6-5. Energy Use per Service Sector Value-Added .............................. 115
Figure 6-6. Electricity and Fuel Use per Unit of Floor Area .......................... 116
Figure 6-7. Decomposition of Changes in Service Sector Energy Use, IEA-11 . 117
Figure 6-8. Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use without
Intensity Reductions, IEA-11 ...................................................... 118
Figure 6-9. Service Sector Energy Expenditures Relative to Value-Added ..... 119
Chapter 7 – Passenger Transport
Figure 7-1. Energy Use in Passenger Transport by Mode, IEA-11 ................. 123
Figure 7-2. Passenger Travel per Capita, all Modes...................................... 124
Figure 7-3. Passenger Travel by Mode (Passenger-km/Capita)...................... 126
Figure 7-4. Modal Share of Passenger Travel (Passenger-km) ....................... 127
Figure 7-5. Energy per Passenger-kilometre by Mode, IEA-11 ...................... 128
Figure 7-6. Car Ownership (Cars per Capita) ............................................... 130
Figure 7-7. Car Ownership per Capita and Personal Consumption
Expenditures, 1970 - 2000........................................................ 131
Figure 7-8. Car-kilometres per Capita and Personal Consumption
Expenditures, 1970 – 2000....................................................... 132
Figure 7-9. Annual kilometres per Vehicle ................................................... 133
Figure 7-10. Car Stock-average Fuel Intensity .............................................. 134
Figure 7-11. Trends in New Car Fuel Intensity ............................................ 135
Figure 7-12. Trends in Retail Gasoline Prices in Real Terms, Including Taxes 137
Figure 7-13. Fuel Cost per Vehicle-km for Cars (Real Terms, Including Taxes) 138
Figure 7-14. Car Fuel Use per Capita versus Average Fuel Price, 1998 ........ 139
Figure 7-15. Passenger Car Travel per Capita and Car Fuel Intensity
versus Average Fuel Price, 1998 ............................................. 140
Figure 7-16. Decomposition of Changes in Car Energy Use per Capita,
1973-1998.............................................................................. 141
Figure 7-17. Decomposition of Changes in Passenger Transport
Energy Use, IEA-11 ................................................................. 142
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Figure 7-18. Decomposition of Changes in Passenger Transport
Energy Use, 1973-1998 .......................................................... 143
Figure 7-19. Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use without
Intensity Reductions, IEA-11 .................................................... 144
Chapter 8 – Freight Transport
Figure 8-1. Energy Use in Freight Transport by Mode, IEA-11 ..................... 147
Figure 8-2. Freight Transport Tonne-kilometres per Capita and by Mode ..... 148
Figure 8-3. Freight Transport Tonne-kilometres per Unit of GDP and by Mode 149
Figure 8-4. Freight Transport Energy per Tonne-kilometre Aggregated
for all Modes............................................................................. 150
Figure 8-5. Freight Transport Energy per Tonne-kilometre by Mode, 1998 .. 151
Figure 8-6. Truck Freight Tonne-kilometres per GDP.................................... 153
Figure 8-7. Truck Freight Tonne-kilometres per Capita versus GDP
per Capita, 1973-2000 .............................................................. 154
Figure 8-8. Energy Intensity for Trucks ........................................................ 155
Figure 8-9. Truck Average Load per Vehicle ................................................ 156
Figure 8-10. Decomposition of Changes in Truck Energy Use, 1973-1998 .. 157
Figure 8-11. Decomposition of Changes in Truck Energy Intensity, 1973-1998 . 158
Figure 8-12. Decomposition of Changes in Freight Energy Use, all Modes,
IEA-11..................................................................................... 159
Figure 8-13. Decomposition of Changes in Freight Energy Use, 1973-1998. 160
Figure 8-14. Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use
without Intensity Reductions, IEA-11 ....................................... 161
Chapter 9 - Trends in CO2 Emissions
Figure 9-1. Global CO2 Emissions................................................................ 165
Figure 9-2. CO2 Emissions per Capita ......................................................... 166
Figure 9-3. CO2 Emissions per GDP ............................................................ 167
Figure 9-4. CO2 Emissions per GDP and Sector, 1998 ................................. 168
Figure 9-5. Average Annual Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP, Historical
and as Implied by the Kyoto Targets ......................................... 171
Figure 9-6. Decomposition of Changes in CO2 Emissions per GDP, IEA-11 .. 172
Figure 9-7. Decomposition of Changes in CO2 Emissions, IEA-11 ................ 174
Figure 9-8. Changes in CO2 Emissions by Sector and Emission Shares
by Sector, IEA-11....................................................................... 176
Figure 9-9. CO2 Emissions per Total Manufacturing Value-added ................ 177
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Figure 9-10. Decomposition of Changes in Manufacturing CO2 Emissions,
IEA-11..................................................................................... 178
Figure 9-11. Service Sector CO2 Emissions per Value-added ........................ 180
Figure 9-12. Decomposition of Changes in Service Sector CO2 Emissions,
IEA-11..................................................................................... 181
Figure 9-13. Residential CO2 Emissions per Capita ...................................... 183
Figure 9-14. Decomposition of Changes in Residential CO2 Emissions, IEA-11. 184
Figure 9-15. Passenger Transport CO2 Emissions per Capita........................ 186
Figure 9-16. Decomposition of Changes in Passenger Transport
CO2 Emissions, IEA-11............................................................. 187
Figure 9-17. Freight CO2 Emissions per GDP .............................................. 189
Figure 9-18. Decomposition of Changes in Freight CO2 Emissions, IEA-11 .. 190
Figure 9-19. Actual CO2 Emissions versus Emissions without CO2 Intensity
Reductions, IEA-11 .................................................................. 192
Figure 9-20. Actual CO2 Emissions versus Emissions without CO2 Intensity
Reductions, 1998.................................................................... 193
List of Tables
Table 2-1. Summary of Variables Used in the IEA Energy Decomposition
Methodology .............................................................................. 24
Table 5-1. Trends in Dwelling Area and Occupancy, 1973-1998 ................. 93
Table 5-2. Ownership and Unit Energy Consumption of Refrigerators
and Refrigerator/freezers ............................................................ 100
Table 9-1. Changes in CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion and
Kyoto Targets ............................................................................. 170
Table 9-2. Decomposition of Changes in CO2 Emissions per GDP................ 173
Table 9-3. Decomposition of Changes in CO2 Emissions.............................. 175
Table 9-4. Decomposition of Changes in Manufacturing CO2 Emissions ...... 179
Table 9-5. Decomposition of Changes in Service Sector CO2 Emissions........ 182
Table 9-6. Decomposition of Changes in Residential CO2 Emissions ............ 185
Table 9-7. Decomposition of Changes in Passenger Transport CO2 Emissions 188
Table 9-8. Decomposition of Changes in Freight CO2 Emissions .................. 191