A policy for a warmer society and a colder climate

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LDE workshop 7-8 May 2013
The urban-rural divide, air pollution and climate
policy
A policy for a warmer society and a colder
climate
Solveig Glomsrød, Borgar Aamaas
CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental
Research - Oslo
Policy targets
 Reduce urban - rural income gap
 Stabilize CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use
by 2015
Policy instruments
• Tax on CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use
• Subsidy to farm crop land
• Amount of subsidy equals CO2 tax revenue of
the government
From emissions to atmospheric
concentrations
Climate models require geographically
dispersed data on emissions of various GHGs
0.5 x 0.5 degrees
Gridding with emission intensities as in
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
2.6
Example of gridded data: BC in 2030
for the energy sector (kg/(m²s))
From emissions to atmospheric
concentrations 2
Chemical transport model: OsloCTM2
Horizontal distribution 2.8° x 2.8° (T42)
60 vertical layers
Meteorological data for year 2006
Run different scenarios, compare
differences
Pollutants: BC, OC, nitrate, sulfate, ozone
Annual mean modeled difference in BC
burden in 2030 (SCEN-BAU) [ug m−2].
We could calculate radiative forcing from these
concentrations
From emissions to
temperature
The easy and simple solution: Emission
metric
Absolute Global Temperature change
Potential (AGTP) with variable time horizon
All gases and particles included, short- and
long-lived
Global temperature change due to China
Global temperature change due to the rest of
world
Global temperature change - net
• Cooling from sulfate important in the short
term, warming from CO2 dominates in the
long term
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