ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR Sector Definition Electric Power Infrastructure refers to “smart” electric grids and networks which deliver power to users on demand in an efficient and reliable way, from a broad range of generating sources. These grids and networks are usually supported by IT applications. This definition is derived from the “smart grid” concept, which emphasizes smart, efficient and reliable functions. A key objective of China’s Electric Power Infrastructure is to create integrated grid systems that are environmentally friendly and reliable. Value Chain The Electric Power Infrastructure value chain includes generation, transmission, distribution, service location, storage and IT solutions. Key industry activities are shown in Figure 1. In addition to the traditional value chain components – power generation, transmission, distribution and service location – electricity storage and communications are incorporated into the Initiative’s Electric Power Infrastructure value chain; these represent additional integral characteristics of modern electrical grids and networks. Fig.1: ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY SECTOR VALUE CHAIN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION Power Generation ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION SERVICE LOCATION Electricity Storage INFORMATION COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) INDUSTRY ACTIVITIES n Grid connectivity n Improving stability n Transformation (step up, down) n Maintenance n Relay protection n Loss control and monitoring n Dispatching n Metering n Monitoring n Appliance control n Relay protection n Demand management n Step down n Anti-theft ENERGY MANAGEMENT ENERGY Storage Distributed generation Data collection Data transmission Analysis & Optimization Smart Grid In China, as elsewhere in the world, “Smart Grid” is still an emerging concept1 which is not yet well defined. However, some commonly cited characteristics include the ability to self-heal from power disturbance events, along with the capability to enable active participation by consumers in demand behavior and to operate resiliently against physical and cyber attacks. Smart characteristics include the concepts of: n Informatization: high-grade integration, sharing and utilization of real-time and non-real time information n Digitization: quantitative description of a grid’s subject, structure, attributes and state, as well as the precise and effective collection and transmission of different types of information n Automation: auto selection of grid control strategies, auto supervision of operational states and auto recovery of breakdowns n Interaction: interconnections between power generators, grids and users The China Greentech Initiative would like to recognize Nicki Fung and Ana Lin T. Chiong as the lead writers of this chapter, which is based on work completed by the China Greentech Initiative’s Electric Power Infrastructure sector working team. 搜狐网, 国家电网万亿押宝“智能”刘振亚坚强布“网”[Sohu.com, SGCC Invested Trillion RMB in “Smart”, Liuzhenya Strongly Deployed “Networks”http://business.sohu.com/accessed on July 18, 2009] 1 2 THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR Market Context China’s power shortage problem is considered to be a huge challenge in sustaining the country’s rapid economic development.2 By 2004, the power shortage problem had spread throughout the nation, with some areas having to impose power outages because electricity supply was insufficient to meet demand. Today, the country continues to experience difficulty meeting demand which is expected to continue growing in the coming years. The country is also experiencing grid connectivity issues for renewable energy sources. A significant portion of energy generated from renewable sources is not utilized because renewable energy facilities are not yet connected to the grid. Part of this is due to the intermittent nature of electricity generated by renewable sources such as solar and wind, which is difficult for the current over-burdened electric power infrastructure to handle. China is also facing challenges in the management of the grid system and minimization of energy loss due to inefficiencies. Even though the electricity loss rate has decreased, absolute electricity loss increased at a CAGR of 11% between 2000 and 2007,3 due to increased growth in overall electricity consumption. Large and growing electricity demand China’s growing energy needs, coupled with supply and demand imbalances, impose pressure on grid operators to resolve grid connectivity issues and improve efficiency. From a demand side, China’s electricity consumption grew rapidly with a CAGR of 11% from 2000 to 2008, and is forecast to grow at an average of 7% per year through 2020.4,5 This is equivalent to a demand of 7,760 billion kWh by 2020. Current infrastructure is short on its capacity to deliver energy from western resource bases (over two-thirds hydroelectric resources) to the eastern load centers (over two-thirds consumption).6 This geographical separation of electricity supply and demand means that China must evolve to higher voltage, long distance grid connections. In line with this, electricity delivery networks are expanding mainly with 220kV and over 500kV high voltage transmission systems. Grid compatibility with renewable energy China’s wind power market has been growing particularly fast, doubling the installed capacity for four consecutive years, reaching 12 GW in 2008.7 However, sources estimate that only approximately 70%of this was connected to the grid, effectively losing 30% of the power generated.8 Some analysts further expect that approximately 5,000 MW of generated wind power, almost equivalent to the total wind power generated in 2007, is expected to be lost by 2015. This is based on the assumption that China’s wind power generation will reach 50,000 MW by 2015 with a 90% ratio of wind power grid connectivity.9 Power generated from renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, etc.) also necessitates greater use of intermittent generation management and storage solutions compared to power generated from conventional energy sources. An improved electric power infrastructure is important in order to support China’s goal of achieving an increased utilization of renewable energy in its energy mix. Power infrastructure efficiency It is estimated that China’s 2008 electricity losses cost yuan 300 billion (equivalent to a loss of over 100 billion kW). Line loss factors include the fact that transformers Global Energy Network Institute, “China’s power crisis,” http://www.geni.org/ (accessed on September 18, 2009) National Bureau of Statistics of China, “China Statistical Yearbook, 2008” Ibid 5 China Greentech Initiative analysis 6 中国电力科学研究院,中国电力“高速路”http://www.epri.ac.cn/, [China Electricity Research Institute, China Electric Power High Way, accessed on July 18, 2009] 7 Pullen, Angelika et al., Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels, Belgium: Global Wind Energy Council, 2009), 25 8 中国电力企业联合会,统计与分析 全国电力工业统计快报(2005, 2006,2007,2008), http://tj.cec.org.cn/ [China Electricity Council, Statistics and Analysis, National Electric Power Industry Statistical Report (2005,2006,2007,2008)] 9 World Wind Energy Report 2008 (Bonn, Germany: World Wind Energy Association, 2009) 2 3 4 www.china-greentech.com THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 3 ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR and related equipment are high energy consuming, and that the focus has been on safety and keeping up with rising consumption rather than focusing on grid efficiency, automation and economic operating model improvements. Nevertheless, China’s line loss rate decreased to below 7% in 2008, putting it closer to global levels. Future electric grid plans To address these challenges, China has planned 690 billion yuan of additional investment by 2010 to accelerate grid development.10 China has also planned to improve transmission and reduce GHG emissions, including the development of Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission networks to connect key power generation bases and main load centers. The delivery capacity of UHV and trans-regional transmission is expected to reach over 64 gigawatts by 2015, representing 10% of the total power load, and 260 gigawatts by 2020. This will reduce coal transportation by 480 million tons standard coal/year while also reducing CO2 equivalents by 1.4 billion tons/year; SO2 equivalents by 10.8 million tons/year and NOx by 1.4 million tons/year. 11, 12 China’s Regulatory Response Many entities, are involved in the management and regulation of China’s electric power infrastructure management, as shown in Figure 2. To respond to the dramatic growth in electricity demand, China’s regulators have taken a number of concrete steps to promote further development of the country’s electric power infrastructure. These steps include strategic planning activities and development targets, policies supporting energy-efficient grid construction and pricing management. Equipment and grid standards are also actively being developed by China. In fact, China is considered a leader in electromagnetic radiation and UHV standards and has now also started developing smart grid standards. Fig . 2 : INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE Five Generation Groups STATE COUNCIL Other National Government Departments * National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Central SOEs Power Generation Companies National State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC) Local SOEs Private and Foreign Invested Companies Power Grids Provincial/Local Government Other Provincial / Local Government Departments Provincial/Local Development and Reform Commission Electricity Regulatory Bureau (Northeast, East, South, Central, North, Northwest)** Principal agency Direct oversight Non-principal agency Indirect oversight Supervise entities Supervise SGC SGCC Sub-national Northwest Grid Northeast Grid Guangdong Grid Central China Grid Guangxi Grid East China Grid Guizhou Grid North China Grid Yunnan Grid Hainan Grid Notes: * Other government departments include State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration of the State Council (SASAC), State Admininstration for Taxation, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. ** They also require local power generation companies. 中国产业竞争情报网,2009年我国电投资规分析 http://www.chinacir.com.cn/,[China cir, 2009 Analysis on China Grid Investment , accessed on July 18, 2009 ] Liu Zhenya, Presented for the 17th Conference of the Electric Power Supply Industry, Oct. 27, 2008 Macao 12 《国家电网》,顺应时代发展的正确选择——特高压交流试验示范工程发展纪略,2009年2月[State Grid, The Correct Choice of Conforming to Times-UHVAC Demonstration Project Development, Feburary, 2009] 10 11 4 THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR Regulatory Entities China’s Electric Power Infrastructure is regulated and supervised by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC). As the direct regulatory agency, SERC works with NDRC to develop policies and standards. Grid companies also play a key role in policy execution, and their plans and guidelines represent central policies designed to guide future development in the industry. (See previous page for Figure 2). Laws and Guidelines In April 2006, China’s Electric Power Law came into effect governing the country’s electric power industry. The law applies to activities concerning the construction, generation, supply and consumption of electric power. In January 2009, a draft for the Energy Law was submitted to the State Council Legislative Affairs Office for review.13 The proposed law, which is expected to be implemented in 2009, is intended to be the basic law that will harmonize other laws in China’s energy sector. It will cover all forms of primary energy as well as secondary energy, which includes electricity. It will overlay specific energy laws such as the Renewable Energy Law, Energy Conservation Law and the Electric Power Law and their associated regulations and measures.14 Fig.3: CHINA’S REGULATORY RESPONSE TO SELECTED ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES RESPONSE DESCRIPTION 11th Five-Year Guidelines (2006-2010) n n n Create large, highly-efficient and lower-emitting power-generating facilities Close down small, less-efficient and high-polluting power-generating facilities Decrease electric grid line loss rate 11th Five-Year Energy Plan (2004-2009) n Continue construction of West-East Electricity Transmission Project focusing on hydro power transmission Promote regional grid construction and regional grid interconnection; resulting in preliminary national interconnected grid by 2010 Upgrade urban and rural power grids to build reliable distribution networks Promote the coordination and development of secondary and primary equipment Adopt advanced grid technologies n n n n National Program for Scientific and Technological Development (2006-2020) n n n n n n n New Energy Revitalization Plan n State Grid Corporation of China n State Power Grid Corporation n n High capacity and long-distance direct current transmission technologies and UHVAC technologies and equipment Grid-connected technologies, transmission and distribution technologies for intermittent energy Electric power quality monitoring and control technologies Safety techniques for large-scale interconnected grids Key techniques for West-East Electricity Transmission Project Techniques for power system dispatching automation Highly-efficient distribution and power supply management information technologies and systems Develop wind power, solar energy, biomass energy and other renewable sources of energy n Develop technologies to enable cleaner use of conventional energy including cleaner coal Implemented “One Ultra, Four Large” plan to develop UHV Transmission to connect hydro, thermal nuclear and renewable power generation plants n Developed “Key Techniques Framework for Grids Environmental Protection” n Issued “Guidelines of Life-cycle Design and Construction of Power Transmission Project” to promote the adoption of standardized design, new materials, new technologies and techniques in transmission projects Implemented line loss reduction management projects Implemented demand side management projects China Environmental Law, “China’s Energy Law & 12th Energy Five Year Plan,” http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/ (accessed on September 18, 2009) 13 www.china-greentech.com THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 5 ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR China also has a number of guidelines and programs already in place to address energy related issues. This includes the 11th Five-Year Energy Plan (2004-2009) that focuses on grid construction and development of advanced technologies; the 11th Five-Year Guidelines (2006-2010) which focuses on energy savings and emissions reductions; the National Program for Scientific and Technological Development (2006-2020) which mapped out the various government-supported plans covering key fields of study and research;15 the New Energy Revitalization Plan which encourages the utilization of renewable energy and better conventional energy technologies; and the various improvement programs implemented by the State Grid Corporation of China and the State Power Grid Corporation. West-East Electricity Transmission Project Case Study The western region accounts for 80% of China’s water resources, enabling the development of hydroelectric power generation to meet the increasing demand of eastern and southern China. The objective of the project was to develop Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Inner-Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi power sources in order to meet the electricity needs of Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other developed eastern regions. The project also sought to make hydroelectric power generation an alternative to thermal power generation, thereby decreasing overall carbon emissions. By the end of 2007, the main network of “6 AC, 4 DC” was formed, with a feeding capability above 15 million kWh. Between 1993 and 2007, the project fed 29 billion kWh, of which 21 billion kw, or 70%, was hydro power electricity. Source: 1. China Window, “Western Region Development,” http://www.china-window.com/ 2. Xiaoxin Zhou, CEPRI, Power System Development And Nationwide Grid Interconnection in China 3. Xikang Zhao; Lijuan Wang, Centre for Environmental Economics & Policy Research (CEEPR),GDASS, Effects of Carbon Reduction in Cross Regional Energy Trade: A Case Study on Southern Route of West to East Power Transmission Project State Grid Strategy Case Study The State Grid issued the “One Ultra, Four Large” strategy promoting sustainable development of the power industry. This was to be done through the development of UHV (Ultra-High Voltage) Transmission to connect large hydro, thermal, nuclear and renewable power plants. This included developing a UHV network of 1000 kV AC and ±800 kV DC transmission, promoting intensive development of a large thermal, hydro, nuclear and renewable energy base, realizing large-scale, long-distance and efficient transmission and optimizing the power resource allocation nationwide. Source: Liu Zhenya, Presented for the 17th Conference of the Electric Power Supply Industry, Oct. 27, 2008 Macao State Grid Environmental Protection Measures Case Study State Grid is working to build an environmentally friendly power grid. Measures include the standardization of grid construction and the promotion of environmentally friendly equipment and technologies that save energy, land resources and materials at key thresholds of the supply chain (planning, design, and procurement, etc.). Other measures include the design of a five-year technical renovation plan for the present grid to increase its transmission capacity, enhance its operational performance and reduce line loss. State Grid is also attempting to enhance grid dispatching mechanisms, power trade and integration management in order to promote energy savings and emissions reductions across the power sector while at the same time enhancing demand side management (DSM) to raise end-user power use efficiency. The promotion of electricity to replace other energy sources is yet another component of this process. Source: Liu Zhenya, Presented for the 17th Conference of the Electric Power Supply Industry, Oct. 27, 2008 Macao Mallesons Stephen Jaques, “A new energy law for China,” http://www.mallesons.com/ (accessed on September 18, 2009) World Resources Institute, “China: National Medium-and Long-Term (2006-2020) Program Outline for Scientific and Technological Development,” http://projects.wri.org/ (accessed on September 18, 2009) 14 15 6 THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR Pricing Policies 16, 17, 18 To promote energy savings and environmental protection, China has implemented a series of different pricing policies which impact prices on all stages of the electrical power infrastructure value chain, from generation to transmission to distribution. On the generation side, China’s government sets the grid power prices at which generators can bid to sell their electricity. Certain generators are granted subsidized feed-in tariffs in excess of the base grid power prices. For example, coal power plants compliant with sulfur-dioxide emissions reduction policies are allowed to increase their prices by 0.015 yuan per kWh. New energy generators, such as biomass and wind power generators, are also allowed to charge higher feed-in prices when selling electricity to electrical grids. For transmission and distribution prices, China uses a cost-plus system. In addition to the power purchase costs that grid networks pay to generators for their electricity, the cost-plus system also accounts for transmission costs, applicable administration, tax and operating costs as well as an acceptable mark-up approved by the government. On the distribution side, local governments generally set end user prices. In China, as elsewhere in the world, the two key approaches used are differential and time-of-use (TOU) pricing. In differential pricing, price brackets are defined for different categories of electricity users. For example, energy intensive industries may be required to pay between 0.02 yuan and 0.05 yuan extra per kWh over other types of users. Under TOU pricing, users pay different prices for using electricity at different times of the day.19 The goal of TOU pricing policies is to moderate peak loads by shifting demand to off-peak times. Reduced peak loads, in turn, can enable power companies to decrease the amount of generating capacity they have available to meet demand. For example, except for Tibet, all other grids have implemented TOU policies for energy sales. Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangxi and Chongqing have implemented peak time pricing in summer and winter; and hydropower generation regions have implemented seasonal pricing. Standards China is a leader in electromagnetic radiation standards and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission and transformation technology. China’s State Grid has formulated 47 national standards and a complete set of specifications for UHVAC project design, construction, operation and maintenance. This UHVAC standard voltage has been recommended as the international standard by the International Electrotechnical Commission and the International Council on Large Electric Systems. 国家发改委,国家环保总局,燃煤发电机组脱硫电价及脱硫设施运行管理办法 2007年6月11日发布 [NDRC, SEPA, Management Measures on De-sulfur Pricing for Coal-fired Generating Units and De-sulfur Equipment Operation, issued on June 11, 2007] 国务院办公厅, 转发发展改革委关于完善差别电价政策意见的通知, 2006年9月17日发布 [General Office of State Council, Notice of Opinion o f NDRC on Differential Pricing, issued on September, 17, 2006] 18 国务院办公厅,可再生能源发电价格和费用分摊管理试行办法,2006年1月4日发布[General Office of State Council, Trial Methods of Renewable Energy Power Generation Prices and Costs Allocation, issued on January 4, 2006 19 NDRC ,2006/01/27,“十五”经济体制改革回顾之四十六:电价形成机制发生深刻变革 http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/ 16 17 www.china-greentech.com THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 7 ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR Fig.4: MAIN STANDARDS COMPARISONS Electromagnetic Radiation Standards for Power Transmission and Transformation Electrical Field Strength (V/m, public) Magnetic Field Strength (μT, public) International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) (1998) (50Hz) 5,000 100 IEEE95.6 (2002) 0-3kHz 5,000 904 EU Regulations (50Hz) 5,000 100 European Committee for Standardization 8,330 533 UK 12,000 1,600 Australia 5,000 100 Switzerland 5,000 1 Japan 3,000 - China 4,000 100 1. 中国南方电网,中国南方电网2008年度企业社会责任报告,48页,2009年5月26日[Southern Grid, SGC Corporate Social Responsibility Report (2008), page 48, issued on May 26, 2009] 2. 中国电力企业联合会,特高压交流输电标准送审稿审查会在京召开,标准化,http://dls.cec.org.cn/ [China Electricity Council, Review Meeting of UHVAC Standards Held in Beijing, Standardization Column, accessed on June 20, 2009] In contrast, China’s research on smart grid standards is still at an early stage. China takes IEC standards as the reference in building its own, even though smart grid standards have not been generally well developed on a global basis. Relevant IEC standards for Smart Grid include IEC 61850 and IEC 61970/61968.20,21 Existing and Emerging Solutions As China’s energy demands grow rapidly, there is increasing pressure on the current grid infrastructure to enable access for new energy sources, operate efficiently and resolve grid connectivity issues. Therefore, China must develop a smarter and cleaner electric power infrastructure to drive energy efficiency improvement, enable loss reduction solutions and develop and support energy storage solutions. In particular, the Initiative identified four key solution areas and 12 technologies with varying commercialization potential to address EPI challenges. Solution Areas n Efficiency improvement and loss reduction solutions Although these solutions have a relatively small environmental impact at the individual unit level, at the aggregate level the overall environmental impact is much larger. Increases in network efficiency could slow the need for additional capacity. Moreover, there is an opportunity to commercially market these solutions. n Smart grid components These include solutions with small individual environmental impact potential but good potential to enable other environmental gains by helping to facilitate the use of renewable energy or the demand-side reduction of electricity loads. There is currently a relatively small market for smart grid components. 中国南方电网,中国南方电网2008年度企业社会责任报告,48页,2009年5月26日[Southern Grid, SGC Corporate Social Responsibility Report (2008), page 48, issued on May 26, 2009] 中国电力企业联合会,特高压交流输电标准送审稿审查会在京召开,标准化,http://dls.cec.org.cn/ [China Electricity Council, Review Meeting of UHVAC Standards Held in Beijing, Standardization Column, accessed on June 20, 2009] 20 21 8 THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR n Energy storage solutions These solutions have a very large environment impact potential as well as a large addressable market size. n Renewable energy access solutions These solutions have very large impact potential, but smaller potential market sizes. Solutions Screening and Priority Solutions In order to compare solutions, see Figure 5, across these areas, two key criteria were used: environmental impact potential and overall commercial potential. Environmental impact potential focuses on operational negative impact abatement of the primary pollutant (e.g. CO2, SO2, COD, landfill, etc.) or decrease in resource intensity (e.g. energy, water, raw material, etc.). It is measured on a Fig.5: ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SOLUTIONS Loss reduction solutions n Composite Materials Cables Transmission and distribution line cables made from composite materials that are specifically engineered to reduce losses n Transformers with Amorphous Core Alternative transformers that are more energy-efficient and environmentallyfriendly than conventional n Ultra High Voltage (UHV) Transmission Power transmission lines with voltages of 1,000 kV or higher for alternating current or 800 kV or higher for direct current that allow power to be transmitted at greater distances with lower losses than lower voltage transmission lines Smart grid component solutions n n n n n NaS Battery Sodium-sulphur battery with high energy density and high efficiency of charge/ discharge that requires high operating temperatures n Vanadium Redox Battery Flow battery with deep cycling life that can be mechanically refueled and has low negative environmental impact Energy storage solutions n Grid access solutions n www.china-greentech.com Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Integrated system that measures, collects, stores and analyzes utility usage, such as electricity, gas or water usage; is a broader concept than AMR-IP based solution Digital Substation Automated and computerized substation that provides greater transparency, higher reliability and efficiency of operations IP-Based Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) Solutions that automatically gather data from energy metering devices and transmit to a central processing facility where billing is handled and consumption patterns are analyzed Real-Information Processing Solutions that enable real time communication between core nodes in the electric network, including customer premise, and allow better management of demand, improved reliability and flexibility of the network Wide Area Management System (WAMS) Integrated system that monitors and controls elements of the electrical power grid to ensure availability and improve reliability and efficiency of the network Electric Auto Vehicle (EAV) Charging System System that allows for plug-in electric vehicles to be charged using power from the grid n Flexible Alternating Current Transmission (FACTS) System comprised of static equipment used for the alternating current transmission that is meant to enhance controllability and increase power transfer capability of the network THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 9 ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR unit basis (e.g. negative environmental impact abatement achieved in the process of generating one MW of electricity or delivering one unit of benefit). Commercialization potential refers to the potential of the solution or technology to successfully penetrate the market without subsidies or incentives. The criterion considers technological maturity in short-to medium-term, favorable economics (i.e. financial benefits greater than costs at net present value) and large addressable market. Commercialization potential is not influenced by the regulatory environment or government incentives. Solution Evaluation Framework The Solution Evaluation Framework (SEF) was developed to assess solutions in a comprehensive, consistent, rigorous and flexible manner. It provides a structure in which to capture relevant available qualitative and quantitative information, apply judgment in a structured way and compare results both within and across sectors. The SEF evaluates solutions across four dimensions: unit environmental impact potential, solution attractiveness, addressable market size and market accessibility. The last three criteria collectively represent the overall commercial potential of the solution in China. Solutions were evaluated according to three time periods: Short (under one year), Medium (1-5 years) and Long (5-10 years). For more detailed information on the Solution Evaluation Framework, please refer to the Solutions chapter of this report. Solution Area Comparison The two energy storage solutions evaluated, Vanadium Redox and NaS batteries, were found to have the highest ratings both for unit environmental impact potential and commercialization potential. While grid access solutions were also found to have high potential for unit environmental impact due to their ability to unlock environmental potential in areas such as new energy vehicle transportation and ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SOLUTIONS EVALUATION SUMMARY SOLUTION Unit Environmental Impact Potential 0 0 0 SMART GRID COMPONENTS 1 0 0 0 0 ENERGY STORAGE SOLUTIONS NaS Battery Vanadium Redox Battery 4 4 0 - 1 Years 10 4 4 1 - 5 Years 5 - 10 Years Efficiency improvement and loss reduction technologies Smart grid components Energy storage solutions Grid access solutions Grid access solutions Electric Auto Vehicle Charging System Renewable Energy Access - Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS) Commercialization potential is a product of average addressable market size, solution attractiveness and market accessibility for all solutions within each displayed category. More detail on solutions is included in the Existing and Emerging Solutions chapter and the Electric Power Infrastructure chapter of the full report. LOWEST Advanced Metering Infrastructure Digital Substation IP-Based Automatic Meter Reading Real-Time Information Processing Wide Area Management System COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL Composite Materials Cables Transformers with Amorphous Core Ultra High Voltage Transmission HIGHEST Efficiency improvement and loss reduction technologies Commercialization Potential over Time Legend Unit environmental impact potential of solutions: 4 = More than 40% 0 = Less than 10% THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com COMMERCIALIZATION LOWEST 0 - 1 YEARS Digital Subscribers AMR-IP Based AMI Real-Time - ICT WAMS 1 - 5 YEARS 5 - 10 YEARS Many different components contribute to transmission and distribution Bubble size indicates electricity loss, and on an individual unit basis, none of the solutions in this environmental impact potential ofcategory the solution investigated by the China Greentech Initiative were found to have a significant independent environmental impact. The analysis did not incorporate other benefits such as improved reliability and the potential to enable other future solutions, nor did it incorporate the aggregate environmental benefits that could be achieved were China’s existing electrical power infrastructure be significantly transformed. LOSS REDUCTION SOLUTIONS None of the solutions within the group of efficiency improvement and loss reduction solutions has a high unit environmental impact potential. However, Amorphous Core Transformers have the highest commercial potential, especially over the longer term. While the potential addressable market size is US$9 billion per year, UHV is difficult for foreign companies to access due to localization requirements. As a substitute to conventional materials, the wide use of composite materials depends on technical maturity and lower costs. However, with sufficient amorphous alloy supply, Amorphous Core Transformers are expected to be widely used to facilitate energy savings. Fig.6: Efficiency Improvement and Loss Reduction Technologies Evaluation Dynamics LOWEST LOWEST COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL HIGHEST HIGHEST Fig.7: Smart Grid Components Evaluation Dynamics 1 - 5 YEARS 0 - 1 YEARS 5 - 10 YEARS UHV Transmissions Bubble size indicates environmental impact potential of the solution Composite Cables A.C. Transformers 1 - 5 YEARS 5 - 10 YEARS 0 - 1 YEARS Bubble size indicates environmental impact Digital Subscribers AMR-IP Based AMI Real-Time - ICT WAMS potential of the solution 1 - 5 YEARS 5 - 10 YEARS Bubble size indicates environmental impact potential of the solution Smart Grid Components Solutions None of the solutions within the group of smart grid component solutions has a high unit environmental impact potential as they all have limited direct functions for CO2 emission reduction. However, almost all of them are developing greater commercial potential over time as demand increases and technology matures. The solutions with the highest commercial potential are Digital Substations, AMR-IP-based and Real-Time ICT. Digital Substations could be a prototype for smart grids to enhance grid interoperability. Current AMR deployment will improve efficiency and reduce theft, while IP based AMR will lay the foundation for twoway communications. ICT solutions act as the nerve centers of the grid network to enable and maximize technology performance. Other solutions include AMI, which has the potential, via behavior changes, to reduce emissions (although realization depends on corresponding policies and incentives) and WAMS, which will need to address potential safety challenges as China’s grid interconnection is enhanced and demand increases. Energy Storage Solutions Both the Vanadium Redox Battery (VRB) and the NaS Battery, two types of energy HIGHEST dox B. s renewable power generation, their commercialization potential appears smaller than other electric power infrastructure solutions over the coming 10 years. www.china-greentech.com THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 N POTENTIAL EARS ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR 11 5 - 10 YEARS ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR Fig.9: Renewable Energy Access Solutions Evaluation Dynamics Energy Storage Solutions Evaluation Dynamics 0 - 1 YEARS Vanadium Redox B. NaS Batteries 1 - 5 YEARS 5 - 10 YEARS Bubble size indicates environmental impact potential of the solution HIGHEST COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL LOWEST LOWEST LOWEST COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL HIGHEST HIGHEST ement and loss reduction technologies onents Fig.8: olutions ions 0 - 1 YEARS EAV Ch. System Renewable Access 1 - 5 YEARS 5 - 10 YEARS0 - 1 YEARS Digital Subscribers AMR-IP Based AMI Real-Time - ICT WAMS Bubble size indicates environmental impact potential of the solution B en po storage solutions, have similarly high unit environmental impact potential due to its ability to reduce CO2 from power generation by enabling renewable energy. It is expected that these technologies will improve in the coming years driving down the costs leading to widespread commercialization. Grid Access Solutions Both renewable energy access solutions - Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging System and Flexible Alternative Current Transmission System (FACTS) - have high unit environmental impact potential. However, over the short- to medium-term (1-5 years), both have limited commercial potential. Over the longer term (5-10 years), the commercial potential will likely increase slightly. EV Charging Systems are indispensable for clean road transportation, but storage and bulk delivery solutions are needed first. FACTS facilitates renewable energy grid connectivity and enables delivery networks to act with more flexibility and reliability. Key Challenges LOWEST CATEGORIESCHALLENGES Lack of incentives to improve efficiency due to grids’ monopolistic positions in the market Market n Technology n High costs associated with certain technologies n Conservative attitude of grid technologies towards adoption of advanced technologies due to safety concerns n Intellectual property concerns Financing 0 - 1 YEARS Regulatory EAV Ch. System Renewable Access 12 HIGHEST Fig.10: ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUStRY CHALLENGES COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL HIGHEST The adoption and diffusion of technologies and best practices in China’s EPI industry is inhibited by a number of key challenges such as limited competition, immature and expensive technologies, insufficient financing channels and imperfect policy systems. n n Limited investor involvement in financing grid construction Not fully aligned government incentives, subsidies and tax breaks LOWEST 1 - 5 YEARS 0 - 1 YEARS Less emphasis on the resources’ economic value when pricing 5 - 10 YEARS Lack of uniform standards to guide technology adoption UHV Transmissions Lack of specific supervisory regulations for the grid sector regulating Composite Cables Bubble size indicates emissions control A.C. Transformers environmental impact n No uniform system to measure environmental impacts and/or losses directed potential of the solution towards the grid 1 - 5 YEARSn n n THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com Bu en po ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR Market Challenges Market challenges include limited competition and a diversified application environment. Specifically, some of the market segments are dominated by stateowned enterprises and thus lack competition that encourages market efficiency and innovation. There are also high barriers to entry in some segments and risks in technology selection due to a diversified environment. Differing technologies will likely be a challenge when it comes to guaranteeing grid reliability across regions. Technology Challenges Technology challenges include the high cost of commercialization as well as immature key technology. Equipment to scale-up production requires high initial investments, while skilled and talented workers are needed for technology commercialization. In addition, some key technologies are still under development. Technology holders often are reluctant to transfer their more advanced technologies due to IPR concerns, and grid companies are taking a conservative attitude towards advanced technologies due to safety concerns. Financing Challenges From a financing perspective, challenges include an undefined economic structure, limited financing channels and an unaligned incentive system. The economic benefits of various methods will need to be proven through pilot projects and require short- and long-term financial incentives to get off the ground. The international community has existing methods that could be implemented in China through pilot programs, but will need strong financial stimulus to begin operations. In addition, there is limited investor involvement to finance grid construction. Most investments in the grid come solely from the Chinese government and in the form of loans and bonds. A few traditional investment methods, such as public private partnerships, are used in current grid development as well. Finally, government incentives, such as subsidies and tax breaks, are not fully aligned with industry development. Regulatory Challenges From a regulatory perspective, challenges remain, ranging from standardized pricing policies, insufficient standards and policies, and insufficient incentives in place to support industry development (e.g. the storage industry receives less attention and incentives than the renewable generation industry). Government guided prices sometimes do not reflect the economic value of resources and imperfect on-peak and off-peak pricing hinders effective demandside management implementation. Although Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing has been implemented nationwide, it faces challenges in mechanism design and enforcement. One mechanism design issue is that TOU favors distribution companies. Currently, supply companies purchase electricity based on fixed prices, then sell it based on flexible prices. This results in revenue risks for supply companies. There is also inflexibility in the system, and an inability to reflect the dynamic changes of the power loads. There are also no specific supervisory regulations for regulating emissions controls, no unified system to measure environmental impact and/or losses due to the grid and no clear definitions or standards for smart grids. Finally, there are only a few government incentives available (e.g. grants and tax breaks for smart grid development) and limited policies addressing incentives for greentech. Policies for integrating renewable energy solutions into electric power integration systems also still need to be implemented as some areas lack uniform and reasonable planning for renewable energy power generation and grid integration. Opportunities to Accelerate Market Development What can stakeholders do to overcome the challenges facing the commercializing of greentech solutions which accelerate the sustainable development of China’s Electric Power Infrastructure sector? The China Greentech Initiative posed this question to its partners and advisors, who helped developed the set of www.china-greentech.com THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 13 ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR opportunities outlined below. These opportunities are not meant to be explicit recommendations, but rather suggestions of concrete steps different stakeholder groups may take to accelerate greentech markets and enable China’s further evolution to a sustainable economy. Stakeholder Groups Key stakeholders may take immediate steps to accelerate the development of China’s integrated electric power infrastructure sector. Fig.11: ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES CATEGORIES CHALLENGES Solution Adopters n n n Solution Providers n Financial Investors n Government Regulators n Push forward electricity pricing reform, promote direct power supply and encourage large customer pilot projects n Issue “Smart Grid” policies and corresponding incentives n Encourage further reform in grid companies and introduce more competition on the distribution side n Promote innovation and enhance IPR protection n Set up technology transferring platforms and funding systems Other Stakeholders n Develop clean technology roadmap based on smart grid concepts Promote uniform standards Focus on updating transmission while planning distribution networks to transform in advance n Encourage, introduce and adopt international technologies n Gradually separate internal functions of transmission and distribution Consider practical ways to develop technologies while simultaneously educating grid companies and end users n Widen collaborations with grid companies and enablers to formulate industrial standards n Follow renewable energy connection technologies and storage solutions closely n Localize products and solve IP-related issues Work with other stakeholders to identify potential financing channels and new business models n Educate grid companies to leverage CDM n Work with other stakeholders to build financing mechanisms n Work with regulators to initiate pilot Public /Private Partnerships (“PPP”) projects n n n n Collaborate with research institutes, universities and energy departments to develop energy efficiency for China’s smart grid Promote industrial and national standardization Educate households on electricity-saving technologies and habits Educate grid companies on emerging technologies adoption Lobby the government to open financing channels Solution Adopters Adopters (e.g. grid companies at the national, regional, provincial, municipal and county level) have many opportunities to accelerate market development as they take an active role in China’s transition from traditional distribution and transmission to smart grids. They have the ability to initiate and promote uniform smart grid standards as well as direct the path that the country will take in their adoption of clean technologies, specifically smart grids. Adopters could also take this period of transition from conventional distribution to smart grids as an opportunity to adopt international best practices and technologies. Solution Providers Besides providing advanced solutions, providers (e.g. technology providers, system integrators) need to cooperate with other stakeholders to implement smart grid solutions. Providers will need to work with grid companies, systems 14 THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 www.china-greentech.com ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY SECTOR integrators, as well as upstream and downstream companies in order to create technologies that take into account local requirements and future developments. Providers also need to take the initiative to educate the public in order to change consumption behaviors while they work on commercializing more cost-efficient solutions. Financial Investors Investors (e.g. local and international capital providers, excluding governments) may develop innovative financing mechanisms and help regulators develop appropriate funding systems. Investors may help to promote international technology transfer worldwide as well as promote successful experiences and cases. Other ways in which investors can help include leveraging international mechanisms and policies to reduce energy loss in the grid sector as well as assisting the government to develop related policies to support PPP. Government Regulators Ongoing regulatory development by the government (e.g. China’s central, provincial and local government regulators) is a crucial component in the development of smart and efficient grids in China. Other Stakeholders Other key stakeholders (e.g. international organizations, NGOs, research institutions) can contribute knowledge and expertise to assist China in developing comprehensive and appropriate grid standards. Path Forward This chapter provides an overall picture of China’s greentech markets, challenges and opportunities related to the Electric Power Infrastructure as of the middle of 2009. Intended to be a starting point that defines and frames market issues and opportunities, the Initiative recognizes that the chapter doesn’t answer every question that market participants have. Given the complexity of the Electric Power Infrastructure sector and the intense speed at which regulatory, end user, competitive and technology markets are changing, certain aspects of this chapter will become dated relatively quickly. Moreover, important questions remain to be answered at more detailed levels than has been possible in this chapter. Readers of The China Greentech Report 2009 are invited to join the conversation by visiting www.china-greentech.com. The Initiative’s website allows people to: n n n n Download electronic copies of the Executive Overview, full report and individual sector chapters Order printed versions of the report Access additional content created by the Initiative Participate in interactive discussion forums to create, uncover and promote greentech solutions for an environmentally sustainable China and the world. The China Greentech Initiative looks forward to welcoming readers to its extended community. Suggestions on improving the content in this report are also welcome at feedback@china-greentech.com. www.china-greentech.com THE CHINA GREENTECH REPORT 2009 15 SOURCES The following sources are applicable to the Electric Power Infrastructure chapter of the Report. 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