Human Population
Chapter 9
Population success
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Thailand had uncontrolled growth 3.2% in
1971
According to the rule of 70, how long until
their population doubles?
That’s right 21.9 years, and yes, that is
really, really fast
Thanks to some intervention and education,
a major tragedy was averted
Good job Thailand
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How did they do it
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Government supported family planning
High literacy rate among women
Increase in economic role of women
Better health care for mothers/children
Responsive public
Flexible government to try different
approaches
Cooperation of cultural/religious leaders
Population change
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(Birth + immigration) – (death +
emigration)
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ZPG
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World growth rate as of 2000 is 1.35%
Down from 2.2% in 1963
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Moving in the right direction, but
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Slower does not mean slow
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We are still scheduled to double in 52 years
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We are adding 82 million people per year,
roughly a New York every month, a Germany
every year, a united states every 4 years
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How will this affect resource use?
Let’s have a baby
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Replacement level fertility – number of children
to replace parents 2.0 in theory, but most
developing countries it is 2.1 to as high as 2.5 due
to infant mortality
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Total fertility rate – average number of children
women have. Currently 2.9, which means in 150
years there will be 296 billion people !!!!
World
5 children per women
2.9
Developed
countries
2.5
1.5
Developing
countries
6.5
3.2
Africa
6.6
5.3
Latin
America
5.9
2.8
Asia
5.9
2.8
Oceania
3.8
2.4
North
America
3.5
2.0
Europe
2.6
1.4
Fig. 11.7, p. 241
1950
2000
Key factors for TFR
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Children as labor force
Urbanization
Cost of raising and educating
Education and employment for women
Infant mortality rate
Average age at marriage
Factors affecting death rates
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Food supply
Nutrition
Medical improvements
Sanitation
Drinking water improvements
Age structure diagram
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Usually broken into three categories
Prereproductive 0-14
Reproductive 15-44
Post reproductive 45-dead
The shape of the age structure diagram is
useful in determining future growth
Male
Female
Male
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Ages 0-14
Female
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 15-44
Ages 45-85+
Fig. 11.16a, p. 247
Male
Female
Male
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Ages 0-14
Female
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 15-44
Ages 45-85+
Fig. 11.16b, p. 247
Demographic transition
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As countries become industrialized their
death rates decrease and their population
grows
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Later their birth rates decrease and
population stabilizes
Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
High
70
Relative population size
Birth rate and death rate
(number per 1,000 per year)
80
60
Birth rate
50
40
30
Death rate
20
10
Total population
0
Low
growth rate
Increasing Growth
growth rate
Very high
growth rate
Decreasing
growth rate
Low
Low
growth rate
Zero
growth rate
Negative
growth rate
Time
Fig. 11.26, p. 255
Demographic transition
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Preindustrial
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Stable population – high birth/death rate
Poor living conditions
Low per capita income
Poor sanitation
High infant mortality
Low use of birth control
Demographic transition
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Transitional
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Industrialization begins
Increased food supply
Better sanitation/healthcare
Infant mortality drops sharply
Birth rate still high (culture)
Population grows rapidly (2.5-3% a year)
Demographic transition
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Industrial
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Industrialization is widespread
Per capita income is up
Birthrate decreases sharply
Birth rate approaches death rate
Slow population growth
Most developed countries are in this phase
Demographic transition
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Postindustrial
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Birth/death rates are equal
Population stabilizes or even drops slightly
Most of Europe is here
85% of the world still needs to reach this
stage
India
China
Percentage
of world
population
16%
21%
Population (2000)
1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
25%
Population growth rate (%)
Total fertility rate
1.8%
0.9%
3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate
72
31
Life expectancy
GNP per capita
(1998)
61 years
71 years
Fig. 11.29, p. 257
$440
$750
Infrastructure
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How will the increasing population affect each
nations infrastructure?
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Homes
Jobs
Transportation
Food supply
Taxes
Schools
Energy needs
Resource needs