IFPRI
Complying with the
Maputo Declaration:
How serious are African governments
Sam Benin, IFPRI
Conference on
The Challenge of Developing Countries from the Bottom-up
Institute for the Study of International Development (ISID)
McGill University, Montreal
22 March 2013
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Background and Motivation

In 2003, African governments adopted Comprehensive
Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)
» Achieve 6% ag GDP growth rate per year
» Spend 10% of national expenditure on ag – Maputo Declaration



Public spending (fiscal policy in general) is a key
instrument for developing country governments
Most of poor work in the ag. sector and in rural areas
Sector employs 65% of the labor force and accounts for
32% of GDP. Public spending that raises ag growth:
» promoting overall economic growth
» achieving MDG1 (halving proportion of poor and hungry people)
» 1% increase in ag GDP leads to a 1.61% increase in incomes of the
poorest quintile (Gallup et al.)
» experience of Green Revolution (especially India and China)
IFPRI
Objective and outline of presentation

Present patterns and trends in public agricultural
expenditure (PAE) in Africa

Assess progress in achieving the Maputo Declaration
target of spending 10% of national expenditures in
the agriculture sector

Implications of the Declaration on spending behavior
and optimal PAE allocation
IFPRI
Percent
Progress in Complying with Maputo Declaration
10
1995-2003
8
2003-2009
6
4
2
0
CA
Africa


IFPRI
EA
NA
SA
WA
Region
Share of public agriculture expenditure (PAE) in total
expenditures for Africa as a whole declined in 200309 (post CAADP) compared to 1995-2003 (pre-CAADP)
Differences across different regions and countries
Meeting the Maputo Declaration: Central Africa
Central Africa
15
10
5
Sao Tome &
Principe
Equatorial
Guinea
Congo, Rep.
Congo,
Dem. Rep.
Chad
Central
African Rep.
Cameroon
Burundi
0
Apart from Burundi, Rep of Congo, Chad and São Tomé
and Principe, others spend less than 5% of total
expenditure on agriculture
 Region is the lowest performer against the target

IFPRI
Meeting the Maputo Declaration: East Africa
25
20
15
10
5
0


IFPRI
Uganda
Tanzania
Sudan
South Sudan
Seychelles
Rwanda
Mauritius
Madagascar
Kenya
Ethiopia
Djibouti
East Africa
Many countries in East Africa spend 5-10% percent of
total expenditure on agriculture
Shares have been increasing over time in several
countries (especially Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan)
Meeting the Maputo Declaration: North Africa
15
North Africa
10
5
Tunisia
Morocco
Mauritania
Egypt
Algeria
0
Countries are of middle income status with significant
nonagricultural sources of growth and development.
 Divergence from the 10% target.
 Is there shift of resource to sectors with larger returns?

IFPRI
Meeting the Maputo Declaration: Southern Africa
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Swaziland
South Africa
Namibia
Mozambique
Malawi
Lesotho
Botswana
Angola
Southern
Africa
Malawi and Zambia stand out with large farm subsidies
 Shares in others (most middle income) have stagnated. Is it
because they have reached equilibrium, where returns to
additional spending in ag and nonag are equal?

IFPRI
Meeting the Maputo Declaration: West Africa
Togo
Sierra Leone
Senegal
Nigeria
Niger
Mali
Liberia
Guinea-…
Ghana
Gambia
Cote d'Ivoire
Cape Verde
Burkina Faso
25
20
15
10
5
0
Guinea
West Africa
Region where many countries have achieved target
 Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have continuously cut back. Is
because they think the CAADP 10 percent target is optimal
or because they are not getting the expected returns?

IFPRI
Meeting the Maputo Declaration

Since 2003 when the declaration was made
» only 11 countries have surpassed the CAADP 10 target
in any year—Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana,
Guinea, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe
» only 7 countries have consistently surpassed the
target in most years—Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea,
Malawi, Mali, Niger, and Senegal

The issue of what to count as public agriculture
expenditure (PAE) has continuously been debated
» Accounting issue: in general, the evidence shows that
PAE is greater than previously reported
» Effectiveness issue: effect of different components of
PAE are not equal
IFPRI
Composition of public agriculture expenditure:
Case of Ghana (% of total expenditure)
Agriculture (Total)
Crops & livestock
Cocoa
Forestry
Fisheries
Research
PSI
Feeder roads
Debt servicing
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1.4 1.5 6.8 5.7 8.8 9.6 10.3 9.9 10.2 9.0
0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 4.0 3.9
n.e. n.e. 2.2 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.2 2.8 1.5 2.0
0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2
0.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.2 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.1
n.e. n.e. n.e. 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. 1.1
n.e. n.e. 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.1
Accounting has changed over time, likely to comply with Maputo
Declaration without changing underlying expenditure allocation
IFPRI
Public agriculture expenditure before structural
adjustment (% of total expenditure)
Botswana
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Malawi
Morocco
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1980
9.7
4.4
6.9
12.2
8.4
10.2
6.5
14.5
32.5
13.4
7.0
1985
9.8
4.2
9.9
6.2
10.4
8.4
5.0
8.3
3.9
10.7
10.9
1990
6.5
5.4
6.9
6.1
6.0
11.1
5.0
8.5
2.2
5.6
11.0
1995
6.0
5.0
9.1
5.1
5.5
11.1
4.2
8.3
2.9
2.5
4.2
2000
4.2
6.8
10.4
3.2
6.8
8.8
3.5
9.3
2.6
2.1
1.8
Share of PAE has declined. Governments were directly involved in agriculture
production, cooperatives, and marketing boards then. These were abandoned.
IFPRI
Public agriculture expenditure:
before structural adjustment and now

Interestingly, a new form of direct governmental
involvement in agricultural production and marketing
resurfaced—similar to the situation in the 1980s and
1990s, but without the direct hiring of agricultural
workers and marketing boards by the government

Question that arises is the extent to which these
programs (still deemed controversial with regard to
their cost-effectiveness) have been refurbished to
take account of their negative experiences in the
period prior to structural adjustment
IFPRI
Conclusions and Implications


The amount of PAE in Africa as a whole increased
rapidly, but at a slower pace than the growth in total
expenditures resulting in a decline in the share of PAE
in total expenditures for Africa as a whole
Some governments’ reports on compliance with the
Maputo Declaration has generated controversy on
what to count as PAE
» resulting in a debate that may be polarizing behavior
around the fundamental issue of the investments
needed to achieve development results
» i.e. what types of investment, how much of each type
of investment, where should they be invested, and
when should they be invested
IFPRI
Thank You
IFPRI
5
4
3
2
1
0
IFPRI
Gabon
Congo, Rep.
Burundi
Sudan
Madagascar
Tanzania
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Eritrea
Uganda
Kenya
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Mauritania
Zambia
Mozambique
Malawi
Namibia
South Africa
Botswana
Niger
Guinea
Sierra Leone
Nigeria
Togo
Burkina Faso
Benin
Gambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Ghana
Mali
Senegal
All
Spending on Ag Research and Development
Annual average (% of total agriculture value added)
Central
Region
Eastern Region
1996-2003
Northern Southern Region
Region
2003-2008
Western Region
NEPAD 1% target
All