WINS Workshop
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Research
February 24-25, 1998
Disclaimer: The author is here to learn about
WINS. As such any advice is offered with the
hope that it may be useful in developing such an
industry.
WINS Workshop
Outline
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Cyberspace: the big picture
Moore’s Law; Bell’s corollary on
computer class formation …
because you may be creating a class
System on a chip: a basis for WINS
WINS & their apps
WINS Workshop
Cyberspace: top view
WINS Workshop
Everything cyberizable will be
in Cyberspace and covered by
a hierarchy of computers!
Continent
World
Body
Region/
Cars…
phys. nets
Intranet
Home…
Campus buildings
Fractal Cyberspace: a network
of … networks of … platforms
WINS Workshop
Cyberization: interface to all
bits and process information
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Coupling to all information and
information processors
Pure bits
Bit tokens
State: places, things, and people
State: physical networks
WINS Workshop
Cyberspace: A spiraling quest
in 3D real space
Computation
Communication
Content
Cyberization
WINS Workshop
Moore’s Law &
Bell’s Corollary on
Computer Class Formation
WINS Workshop
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
in Mops, Mbytes, Gbytes/10
60%=
Exas
1.E+21
1.E+18
40%=
Petas
1.E+15
20%=
Teras
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+6
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
WINS Workshop
Bell’s Evolution Of
Computer Classes
Log price
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost
2. constant price, increasing performance
Mainframes (central)
Mini
WSs
PCs (personals)
??
Time 1/1.26 = .8
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade;
WINS= Workshop
1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6
.62
Bell’s law of computer class
formation to cover Cyberspace
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New computer platforms emerge based on
chip density evolution
Computer classes require new platforms,
networks, and cyberization
New apps and content develop around
each new class
Each class becomes a vertically
disintegrated industry based on hardware
and software standards
AFTER IT FLAILS AROUND 5-10 YEARS
WINS Workshop
Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers
1$:
10$:
100$:
1,000$:
10,000$:
100,000$:
1,000,000$:
10,000,000$:
100,000,000$:
embeddables e.g. greeting card
wrist watch & wallet computers
pocket/ palm computers
portable computers
personal computers (desktop)
•
departmental computers (closet)
site computers (glass house)
regional computers (glass castle)
national centers
Super server: costs more than $100,000
“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million
an array of processors, disks,WINS
tapes,Workshop
comm ports
Computer Classes
1OM
1M
Scalables,
=
built from PCs
and SANS
100K
10K
V
C
1K
100
TV
C TC
10
WINS Workshop
Network
Interface
Platform
Platform, Interface, & Network
Computer Class Enablers
“The
Mini &
Computer” Timesharing
Mainframe
PC/WS
Web browser,
telecomputer,
tv computer
tube, core, SSI-MSI, disk, micro, floppy, PC, scalable
drum, tape, timeshare
disk, bit-map servers,
batch O/S
O/S
display, mouse,
dist’d O/S
direct >
batch
terminals via
commands
WIMP
Web, HTML
POTS
LAN
Internet
WINS Workshop
A next generation based on
Microsystems
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Predictable computers
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All kinds of not very interesting
network (server-based) computers
–
–
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PC substitutes for internet access
Telephone-based internet access
Television set-based internet access
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Home Area Network
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Body Area Network (e.g. GTE’s BAN):
“on body”, “Guardian Angel”
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System-on-a-chip industry
WINS Workshop
The Microsystems Industry
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customers building MicroSystems for embedded
applications e.g. autos, PC radio, PDAs,
telephones, set top boxes, videophones,
person monitoring, room and home monitoring
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MicroSystems foundries
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existing computer system companies with large
software investments
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custom design companies that supply "core" IP
and take the systems responsibility
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Microsystems companies supplying a standard
intra-chip architecture, complete with busses,
processors, peripherals, memories, and much
software!
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Workshop
STANDARDS, STANDARDS, &WINS
STANDARDS!
IP companies that are fab-less and
chip-less that supplying designs
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ECAD companies that synthesize logic and
provide design services (e.g. Cadence, Synopsis)
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circuit wizards who design: fast or low power
memories (e.g. VLSI Libraries), analog for audio
(also a DSP application), radio and TV tuners,
radios, GPS, and especially
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processors from RISC to DSP and multimedia
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apps that require software and algorithm
understanding (e.g. protocols, MPEG)
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old style proprietary interface companies e.g.
RAMbus with proprietary circuits and signaling
standards
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WINS
Workshop
microelectormechanical systems
(MEMS)
components are the KEY!
WINS: What would an
industry look like?
WINS Workshop
The dimensions
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Wireless-ness (signal cable free)
Powerlessness… how many batteries
Networks
Platform vs peripheral
Processing, memory, & storage
New transducers: speech, glasses
Sensors… and actuators
Standards, standards, standards
WINS Workshop
Wireless: we have plenty of bandwidth
… provided we use it right
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Power vs distance trade-off
Short distance implies more
aggregate B/W
minutes or seconds/event … HDTV
WINS Workshop
Sensors, actuators/emitters,
sensor-actuators
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Medical: P, T (body), blood gas, ECG
Mobile: location (GPS, compass),
ambient (P,T), acceleration,
Personal: A/V (and eyes) including IR,
body & head position (6 degrees),
Speech and glasses
Radar, sonar, beacons,
Spectrum, chemical, etc.
analyzers
WINS
Workshop
Platform or a peripheral?
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Will this network be an entity unto
itself?
How does it couple into Cyberspace?
How is the network coupled to
computers?
WINS Workshop
"Standards" Types
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industry i.e. de facto one company - IBM, Wintel
wanna be de facto - ABM
proprietary VendorIX - n-UNIX dialect platforms
trade-mark UNIX™ AT&T >Novell>??
PR standards - OSF + COSE =1170
OPEN, de jour, or faux = proprietary + ? standards
implicit cross-platform proprietary databases & apps
explicit cross-platform development environments
de jure gov't & intern’l (CCITT, IEEE, ITU, OSI, POSIX, )
government mandated - ADA, DES, OSI, VHDL
cross-industry forum - ATM, JPEG & MPEG
consortia - Xopen, OSF, OMG
company centered consortia - Java, Sparc, Poweropen
chaotic - Internet & MOSAIC WINS Workshop
Some apps
WINS Workshop
Why we need wireless
WINS Workshop
Evolving umbilicals … connecting
computer’s components & network
WINS Workshop
Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
/hr
200 K
/day (/4yr)
2 -10 M/G
/lifetime
60-300 G
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
43 K
3.6 M
0.5 M/G
40 M/G
15 G
1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS
video 200Kb/s VHS-lite
22 M
90 M
.25 G/T
1 G/T
25 T
100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G
20 G/T
1P
WINS Workshop
Memex
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Guardian:
intercom,
records what
we read, see,
and hear…
protects us
from
ourselves
and others
WINS Workshop
Libretto,
.5mm
Not shown:
ECG;
PCS; Pilot
GPS;
Compass;
altimeter
Libretto PS,
Ricoh Camera;
Swiss Army
Knife
WINS Workshop
A device that would have
saved me from a heart attack
WINS Workshop
Where am I, exactly?
And will I live to enjoy next meal?
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Photo of GPS
Watch and ekg
WINS Workshop
For openers…
audio, pix, T, P,
ECG, … 1 GB
WINS Workshop
Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
WINS Workshop
CMU wearable computers
WINS Workshop
Moore’s law is less important
than MEMS
WINS Workshop
BAN, PAN or whatever for
people networks
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Temperature monitoring with the flu
Saved me from a heart attack
Where is the person, exactly… a baby
sitter
Let’s interact… ala Barney
WINS Workshop
Medtronics
Implanted
Cardioplastic
stimulator
cardiorecorder
WINS Workshop
4 Experts Predict Bionics
Wired, February 1997
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Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
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Bionic Limbs 2013
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Artificial Vision 2040
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Bionic Person (unlikely)
WINS Workshop
Health:
Number
one
market
need…
must
be
open!
WINS Workshop
Your
husband
just died,
… here’s
his black
box
WINS Workshop
People
surrogates
WINS Workshop
Mobile
videophone
WINS Workshop
Honda
Robot
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WINS Workshop