Estimating Extended Supply-Use Tables in
Basic Prices with Firm Heterogeneity for the
United States:
A Proof of Concept
Lin Z. Jones and Zhi Wang (USITC)
James J. Fetzer, Thomas F. Howells III, Erich H. Strassner (BEA)
The Fourth World KLEMS Conference
Madrid, Spain
May 23-24, 2016
Outline
1. Supply-Use Tables (SUTs), firm heterogeneity,
and extended SUTs
• A proof of concept analysis
2. Trade in Value Added
• With and without firm-level heterogeneity
3. 2016 Work plan and Beyond
• BEA next steps
• Collaborations with other partners
1. SUTs, Firm heterogeneity, and
Extended SUTs
Supply-Use Tables for the United States
• Better harmonization with international guidelines
to improve cross-country comparisons for global
value chain analysis
• Released in September, 2015 in BEA’s Survey of
Current Business
– http://bea.gov/scb/toc/0915cont.htm
• 71 industry/product detail; revised with subsequent
annual revisions
4
SUT Methodology
• Built off balanced, Make-Use tables
– http://bea.gov/scb/toc/0214cont.htm
– A rearrangement of existing data to conform to the
Supply-Use framework
• New methodological work in separating taxes on
products from other taxes on production to
derive basic valuation
– Tax data comes from both federal and state and local
tax authorities
• Valuation of imports required new tabulations of
existing data from customs records
5
Dimensions of firm heterogeneity
OECD Proposal
Source: OECD Expert Group on Extended Supply-Use Tables: Terms of Reference
BEA Proposal
Proof of Concept Analysis on Firm Heterogeneity
• Use tabulations from tax returns for all U.S. firms and
BEA’s MNEs; decompose gross output
• Globally-engaged MNEs and entirely domestic firms
• Fetzer and Strassner: http://bea.gov/papers/working_papers.htm
• To motivate longer-run BEA-Census link project on extended
SUTs
• BEA/USITC proof of concept on extended SUTs and TiVA
•
•
•
Merge firm heterogeneity project with U.S. SUTs
Incorporate modeling on basic price valuation
Produce extended SUTs with heterogeneity for 33 OECD
industries and 35 products; develop associated TiVA indicators
Supply Table
Supply
Primary
Manufacturing
Services
Imports
Commodity
Supply
Primary
932,835
681
5,496
413,425
1,352,437
Manufacturing
30,908
5,560,845
38,963
Services
18,626
289,409
20,164,394
200,292
20,672,721
Special
0
4,668
8,552
220,749
233,969
Industry Output
982,370
5,855,603
20,217,405
1,649,390 7,280,106
2,483,856 29,539,233
Supply Table- break down by MNE
Supply
Primary
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
Imports
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
Manufactur
MNE
ing
Domestic
Services
Special
Imports
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
Imports
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
Domestic
MNE
Primary
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
102,770
Domestic
MNE
Manufacturing
Foreign
Domestic
MNE
177
55,927
Services
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
Imports
186
180
774,138
104
56,211
5,205
779,667
413,425
5,590
2,193,731
3,246
6,859
936,219
22,072
3,000
2,430,895
106,170
1,731
942,465
29,104
2,482,071
3,320,068
34,961
13,880
1,033,608
148,278
1,446
0
1,070,300
15,810,718
15,972,877
119
767
0
793
8,408
10,863
220,749
111,376
60,904
810,090
2,301,523
972,127
200,292
1,564
25
2,455
1,649,390
3,429,252
200,292
0
413,425
2,206,180
1,649,390
3,015
Commodity
Supply
103,134
324
Imports
Industry Output
Domestic
MNE
2,581,952 3,327,231 1,036,737 15,853,436 2,483,856
220,749
29,539,233
Use Table
Use
Primary
Manufacturing
Services
Final Demand
Exports
Total Use
Primary
121,485
852,477
97,158
197,316
84,002
1,352,437
Manufacturing
84,739
1,746,143
1,284,368
3,222,579
942,277
7,280,106
Services
193,491
1,159,892
6,395,313
12,077,741
846,284
20,672,721
Special
-4,855
26,581
61,255
-50,967
201,956
233,969
Total Intermediates
394,860
3,785,093
7,838,093
Value Added
587,510
2,070,510
12,379,312
Industry Output
982,370
5,855,603
20,217,405
12,018,046
15,446,669
2,074,518 29,539,233
Use Table- Break Down by MNE
Primary
Manufacturing
Services
Domestic
Final
Demand
Exports
Total Use
703
8,839
22,675
6,165
103,134
701
406
5,005
12,246
4,521
56,211
177,544
5,275
2,992
41,032
151,888
73,316
779,667
34,097
221,800
4,974
2,050
23,958
10,507
203,359
95,236
146,094
30,877
11,033
263,017
1,081,469
355,297
2,206,180
8,113
97,745
54,033
74,221
10,717
4,143
118,416
379,590
195,016
942,465
402
26,531
217,581
106,008
255,685
53,128
19,048
465,087
945,656
391,964
2,482,071
9,803
6,484
12,154
190,217
165,206
140,758
100,796
80,839
127,268
815,864
2,603
1,306
43,721
97,343
40,544
116,771
404,804
136,712
1,050,261
1,398,120
137,066
3,429,252
844
431
14,978
35,336
14,475
40,774
105,008
36,888
303,854
430,306
87,406
1,070,300
Domestic
6,910
3,507
111,956
306,178
126,834
347,572
790,022
295,079
621,812
15,972,877
Imports
388
95
6,753
3,085
830
30,150
7,194
2,472
135,338
13,988
-85
-46
-993
141
279
266
-1,221
-578
-4,815
2,361
6,256
1,564
-43
-23
-503
72
141
134
-618
-292
-2,439
1,194
3,169
793
Domestic
-448
-243
-5,211
2,898
2,088
4,053
7,107
384
-3,436
-188,861
192,531
10,863
Imports
119
50
2,572
505
253
15,751
1,060
531
65,571
134,339
Total Intermediates
28,135
14,822
351,903
1,459,485
713,542
1,612,066
1,521,046
592,410
5,724,637
Value Added
83,240
46,082
458,187
842,038
258,586
969,886
1,806,185
444,327
10,128,800
Industry Output
111,376
60,904
810,090
2,301,523
972,127
2,581,952
3,327,231
Use
Primary
Domestic
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
275
6,761
21,207
283
158
3,228
Domestic
2,867
1,115
Imports
2,440
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
Manufacturi
MNE
ng
Domestic
Imports
Services
Special
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
Domestic
Domestic
MNE
Foreign
MNE
513
8,450
26,324
1,222
10,977
4,518
14,168
80,534
182,555
60,550
907
22,404
90,287
638
256
18,904
322
149
982
3,127,681 10,235,327
413,425
1,649,390
200,292
220,749
12,018,046
1,036,737 15,853,436 15,446,669 2,074,518 29,539,233
2. Trade in Value Added
The Share of Domestic Value Added in U.S. Gross Exports
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
2011:
Domestic value: 85.5%
Foreign value: 14.5%
83
82
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The Shares of Domestic Value Added in U.S. Gross
Exports by Sector, 2011
Mining/extraction
Transportation services
National average: 85.5%
100
80
60
%
40
20
0
manufacturing
services
The Shares of Domestic Value Added in U.S. Gross
Exports by Manufacturing Sector, 2011
100
87
80
60
%
40
20
0
89
88
83
72
79
81
80
82
87
85
87
81
88
85
81
71
54
80
Domestic Value Added Share of Gross Exports
100
90
80
70
60
50
Non-MNE
40
Domestic MNE
30
Foreign MNE
20
10
0
All Industries
Agriculture, hunting,
forestry, and fishing
Coke refined
petroleum products
and nuclear fuel
Chemicals and
chemical products
Computer electronic
and optical products
The Shares of Direct and Indirect Domestic Value Added
in U.S. Gross Exports by Manufacturing, 2011
100
80
60
25
56
50
%
45
40
44
39
46
42
48
60
48
51
53
33
64
20
31
38
38
20
44
49
52
40
37
36
44
39
36
48
22
0
Direct DVA
Indirect DVA
25
28
39
46
30
41
21
32
Direct and Indirect Domestic Value Added in Exports
by Firm Type
100
90
80
70
Non-MNE
Indirect
60
Non-MNE
Direct
Domestic
MNE
Indirect
Domestic
MNE Direct
50
40
Foreign
MNE
Indirect
30
20
10
0
All Industries
Agriculture
Petroleum products
Chemicals
Computer Products
3. 2016 U.S. Work Plan and Beyond
U.S. Work Plan Moving Forward
• Time-series SUTs
• Basic value domestic and import Use tables; ISIC/CPC tables
• Firm-level heterogeneity and extended tables
• BEA-Census Microdata link project
• Enhancements to international trade data
• Efforts to reconcile bilateral asymmetries and to expand
services detail by product and country
• North America Regional SUTs and TiVA database
• 2018 for NA tables and TiVA statistics; 2020 for extensions
• The 2nd APEC Capacity Building and Technical Assistance
Workshop – October 2016