KLEMS
KLEMS productivity accounts for
the Polish economy
Dariusz Kotlewski
(University of Warsaw, Central Statistical Office of Poland)
and
Mirosław Błażej
(Central Statistical Office of Poland)
♣
KLEMS
Structure of the presentation:
Part I Basic methodology and specific issues
Part II Solutions applied to Polish data problems
Part III Results for Poland and some comparative
observations
♣
2
KLEMS
Part I
Basic methodology and specific issues
♣
3
Poland KLEMS
♣ The foundations ♣
► Methodology fundamentally based on:
Jorgenson, D. W. and Z. Griliches (1967), ‛The Explanation of Productivity
Change’, Review of Economic Studies, 34, pp. 249-83.
Jorgenson, D. W., F.M. Gollop and B.M. Fraumeni (1987), Productivity and
US Economic Growth, Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.
Jorgenson D. W., M. Ho and K. Stiroh (2005), Information Technology and
the American Growth Resurgence, MIT.
► And summarized in:
Timmer M., van Moergastel T., Stuivenwold E., Ypma G. (Groningen
Growth and Development Centre) and O’Mahony M., Kangasniemi M.
(National Institute of Economic and Social Research) [March 2007], EU
KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts, EU KLEMS Consortium.
4
Poland KLEMS
♣ Polish specific issues ♣
► Capital ICT not extracted from total capital by industries
► Division into 18 types of labour (required for KLEMS) available only
as representative sample surveys over firms employing more than
9 persons; total labour market divided only by industries
► The above-mentioned sample surveys available only every 2 years
► And available only in NACE 1 or NACE 2 not overlapping each other
► Short time series – no systematic regular data collection before
2004 (i.e. before the introduction of NACE 1)
5
KLEMS
Part II
Solutions applied to Polish data
problems
♣
6
Poland KLEMS
► Issue: Capital ICT not extracted from total capital by industries
♣ Solution:
 Total ICT amounts distributed by industries proportionally to a chosen
structure (ICT services) taken from SUT
 Quick depreciation of ICT capital allowed to ignore its older vintages
 Therefore, accumulated and depreciated investments over 2005-2010
had given total ICT stock in 2010 (American depreciation rates from
KLEMS manuals)
 For years before 2010 it was assumed that ICT stock is in the same
proportion to total capital stock as in 2010
 For the following years 2010 was treated as a base year
 Works are carried out to shift this initial assessment to 2000-2005
7
Poland KLEMS
► Issue: Division into 18 types of labour as required for KLEMS available only as
representative sample surveys over firms employing more than 9 persons;
total labour market divided only by industries
♣ Solution:
 Total labour market structure by industries divided by equivalent total values
(14/14) from the representative sample surveys (Z-12) used as a proportion
to adjust upwards the full matrix structure of the Z-12 survey:
34
18
14
14
18
14/14
Eurostat transmission
64
18
Z-12
8
Poland KLEMS
 Total labour market structure by industries divided by equivalent total values
(14/14) from the representative sample surveys (Z-12) used as a proportion
to adjust upwards the full matrix structure of the Z-12 survey:
34
18
14
14
18
14/14
Eurostat transmission
64
18
Z-12
Stage one
64 Eurostat transmission tables aggregations → 14 NACE-1/NACE-2 labour
market corresponding aggregations
9
Poland KLEMS
 Total labour market structure by industries divided (14/14) by equivalent
total values from the representative sample surveys (Z-12) used as a
proportion to adjust upwards the full matrix structure of the Z-12 survey:
18
34
18
14
14
18
14/14
Eurostat transmission
64
Stage two
Z-12
Stage one
64 Eurostat transmission tables aggregations → 14 NACE-1/NACE-2 labour
market corresponding aggregations
10
Poland KLEMS
 Total labour market structure by industries divided (14/14) by equivalent
total values from the representative sample surveys (Z-12) used as a
proportion to adjust upwards the full matrix structure of the Z-12 survey:
18
34
18
14
14
18
14/14
Eurostat transmission
64
Stage two
Z-12
Stage three
The correct structure enlarged to EU KLEMS 34 industries
thanks to Eurostat transmission 64 industries structure
11
Poland KLEMS
► Issue: The above mentioned sample surveys available only every 2
years
♣ Solution: linear interpolation
► Issue: And available only in NACE 1 or NACE 2 not overlapping each
other
♣ Solution: CSO department dealing with the labour market delivered
data for 2008 in both classifications
► Issue: Short time series – no systematic regular data collection
before 2004 (i.e. before the introduction of NACE 1)
♣ Solution: It was decided not to extend KLEMS beyond 2005 in the past
12
Poland KLEMS
► Additional issue: some data only in ESA’95 or ESA 2010
♣ Solution: Problem concerning the extraction of ICT capital;
growths of stocks of capital by industries diverging only by
less than few hundredth of percentage points in some
cases; in most cases diverging only by less than few
thousandth of percentage points or even less
Ergo: the problem is negligible !!
13
KLEMS
Part III
Results for Poland and some
comparative observations
♣
14
Poland KLEMS
Main results: is secular stagnation approaching?
The Entire Economy
%
7
Contribution of Labor Composition
5
Contribution of Hours Worked
Contribution of Non-ICT Capital
3
Contribution of ICT Capital
1
Value Added Growth
-1
Contribution of MFP
-3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
Poland KLEMS
Main results: spostrzeżenia:
♣ Two MFP growth pics seam to precede VA growth pics:
%
Contribution of Labor Composition
7
Contribution of Hours Worked
5
Contribution of Non-ICT Capital
3
Contribution of ICT Capital
1
Value Added Growth
-1
Contribution of MFP
-3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
16
Poland KLEMS
Main results: spostrzeżenia:
♣ In the last years: negative MFP contribution despite a well growing economy:
%
Contribution of Labor Composition
7
Contribution of Hours Worked
5
Contribution of Non-ICT Capital
3
Contribution of ICT Capital
1
Value Added Growth
-1
Contribution of MFP
-3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
17
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
Little importance of ICT capital:
%
0.6
USA, Sweden and Russia
not extracting ICT capital !!
0.5
Belgium
Nederland
0.4
UK
Germany
Italy
0.3
Austria
France
0.2
Spain
Finland
Japan
0.1
Canada
Poland
0.0
-0.1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
18
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
… compared to ‟ICT countries”:
%
0.6
0.5
Belgium
Nederland
0.4
UK
Germany
Italy
0.3
Austria
France
0.2
Spain
Finland
Japan
0.1
Canada
Poland
0.0
-0.1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
19
Poland KLEMS
Main results: :
… and to ‟Non-ICT countries”:
%
0.6
0.5
Belgium
Nederland
0.4
UK
Germany
Italy
0.3
Austria
France
0.2
Spain
Finland
Japan
0.1
Canada
Poland
0.0
-0.1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
… and to Finland’s case (Nokia …?!):
%
0.6
0.5
Belgium
Nederland
0.4
UK
Germany
Italy
0.3
Austria
France
0.2
Spain
Finland
Japan
0.1
Canada
Poland
0.0
-0.1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
21
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
However, disparate results show perhaps a methodological problem:
%
0.6
0.5
Belgium
Nederland
0.4
UK
Germany
Italy
0.3
Austria
France
0.2
Spain
Finland
Japan
0.1
Canada
Poland
0.0
-0.1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
22
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
♣ The so-called Polish ‟green island”:
%
6
Belgium
Nederland
UK
4
Germany
Italy
2
Austria
France
0
Spain
Sweden
-2
Finland
Japan
-4
USA
Canada
-6
Poland
-8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
23
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
… compared to ‟MFP countries”:
%
6
Belgium
Nederland
UK
4
Germany
Italy
2
Austria
France
0
Spain
Sweden
-2
Finland
Japan
-4
USA
Canada
-6
Poland
-8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
24
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
… and ‟Non-MFP countries”:
%
6
Belgium
Nederland
UK
4
Germany
Italy
2
Austria
France
0
Spain
Sweden
-2
Finland
Japan
-4
USA
Canada
-6
Poland
-8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
25
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
♣ High non-ICT capital contribution for Poland (after EU accession):
USA, Sweden and Russia
not extracting ICT capital !!
%
4
Poland
Belgium
Nederland
UK
4
Germany
3
Italy
Austria
3
France
2
Spain
2
Sweden
Finland
1
Japan
1
USA
0
Canada
Russia
-1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
26
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
… and its growing share in the value added growth:
%
8
6
Contributio
n of ICT
Capital
4
Contributio
n of NonICT Capital
2
Value
added
growth
0
-2
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
27
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
♣ High hours worked contribution before the financial crisis:
4%
Poland
3%
Belgium
Nederland
2%
UK
Germany
1%
Italy
Austria
0%
2005
-1%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
France
Spain
Sweden
-2%
Finland
Japan
-3%
USA
Canada
-4%
Russia
28
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
♣ Highly changing wage contribution for Poland:
4%
Poland
3%
Belgium
Nederland
UK
2%
Germany
Italy
1%
Austria
France
Spain
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sweden
Finland
-1%
Japan
USA
Canada
-2%
29
Poland KLEMS
Main results:
… labour situation stabilizing in the last years:
%
4
Hours worked
%
Labour Composition
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-1
-1
-2
-2
30
Poland KLEMS
Hypotheses and observations for Poland:
♣ Poland is a Non-ICT country (with some misgivings on methodology as far
as international comparativeness is considered)
♣ In Poland the technical progress is embodied sometimes in capital and
other times in MFP, which suggest their exchangeability (observed also
for e.g. the U.S.)
♣ The share of capital contribution in value added growth is continuously
increasing in the long run (in the time frame of the analysis)
♣ Apart from capital, a great importance of the labour factor in the KLEMS
accounting for Poland is observed
♣ A low and negative residual MFP growth in the last covered years is
probably the result of ”demand evasion” through imported capital goods
31
Poland KLEMS
Analyses at industry level:
♣ Similarly to countries the industries can be
also compared
♣ Moreover, it is possible to observe individual
factors in the industries
32
Poland KLEMS
♣ E.g. decomposition of the industry contribution:
33
Poland KLEMS
♣ E.g. labour factor comportment by industries:
34
Poland KLEMS
Data sources:
The CSO National Accounts Department supplied:
♣ Eurostat transmission tables:
♣ ESA95 Questionnaire 0301 – Output and income
♣ ESA2010 Questionnaire 0301 - Output
♣ ESA95 Questionnaire 2000 – Cross-classification of fixed assets by
industry and by non-financial fixed asset
♣ ESA95 Questionnaire 0302 – Capital formation
♣ ESA2010 Questionnaire 0302 – Capital formation
♣ The SUT for years 2000-2011
♣ Capital stocks tables for 2004-2011 according to ESA′95
♣ Capital stocks tables for 2004-2013 according to ESA 2010
35
Poland KLEMS
Data sources:
The CSO Demographic Surveys and Labour Market
Department supplied:
♣ Eurostat transmission tables on the number of working
persons and hours worked:
♣ ESA2_0303_A_M_Quest_NACE Rev2
♣ ESA2_0303_A_H_Quest_NACE Rev2
♣ ESA2010 Questionnaire 0303 - Employment
♣ Tables of the Z-12 survey for 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012
and 2014 containing subdivisions into different labour types
36
KLEMS
Thank you
for your kind attention!
♣
37