From-whom-to-whom presentation using Japan’s flow of funds accounts Presenter: Yoshiko Sato Research and Statistics Department Bank of Japan Working Party on Financial Statistics 24-27 October 2011 Contents Compilation of whom-to-whom (W-to-W) data Basic method Method for enhancement in loans - Use of “Detailed Data of FFA” Method for enhancement in debt securities Further challenges Bank of Japan 2/18 Compilation of whom-to-whom data Importance of individual transactions data showing interconnectedness among sectors or intersectoral relationship (G20) Limitation of source data ・Usually, it is difficult to obtain data reported on a W-to-W basis. Proposed framework for W-to-W matrix ・EC, IMF, OECD, UN, and WB [2009], 2008SNA ・IMF and ECB[2011], An Integrated Framework for Financial Flows and Positions on a Whom-to-Whom Basis ・UNSD and ECB[2011],(draft) Handbook of National Accounting: Financial Production, Flows and Stocks in the System of National Accounts. Bank of Japan 3/18 Compilation of whom-to-whom data Available source data on a W-to-W basis in Japan ・“Detailed Data of FFA” on loans and deposits ・It makes it possible to grasp who finances whom. Our approaches ・First: Make a basic W-to-W matrix. ・Next: Consider enhancement in loans by using Detailed Data of FFA. ・Last: Consider enhancement in debt securities by specifying debtor sectors based on types of debt securities. Bank of Japan 4/18 Basic method Balance sheet data format NFC Loans Other sectors Sector total Asset Liab. Asset Liab. Asset Liab. 30 60 70 40 100 100 Debt Securities Shares Transaction Total NFC: Non Financial Corporations Bank of Japan 5/18 Basic method Recompose the data, and pick up one item (e.g. Loans) Loans NFC Others Sector NFC Liabilities Total Others Sector Assets Total Liab. Liab. Liab. Asset Asset 60 40 100 Asset 30 70 100 Debt Securities Shares Transaction Total Bank of Japan 6/18 Basic method Convert BS data into a W-to-W format Assumptions are made that financial assets of a certain instrument category are allocated to counterparty sectors in proportion to the share of liability of respective sectors for the same instrument category. <Loans> Creditor NFC ↓ Other sectors Liabilities total Debtor→ NFC Other sectors Assets Total 18 12 30 42 28 70 60 40 100 ・Do the same procedure for all the remaining items. Bank of Japan 7/18 Basic method Aggregate all the items into the full W-to-W matrix Creditor HH ↓ CG LC SSF ROW Private NFC Public NFC NPISH CB ODC ICPF OFC FA Debtor→ HH CG 0 0 0 2 05,525 03,468 01,425 0 29,048 0 13,371 02,224 01,288 0 0 0 2,174,622 0 83,612 651,808 3,967 (100mil. yen) LC SSF 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1,994 0 827 0 1,251 0 387 0 260,895 0 0 514230,325 0 188 010,482 0 3,916 0 7,509 0 4,825 0 1,578 0 0 30646,515 0 10 0 0 465567,826 0 144 0 0 0 79,394 0 19 00 0 11,535 221,161 242,053 035,376 056,467 0 129,139 ROW Private NFCPublic NFC NPISH 0 34,586 0 0 0 1,787 0 0 0 0 0 0 895 4 11 1 0 034,910 0 4,349 0 24218,670 0 021,912 0 2,503 03,981 9,014 13,218 0 0 35,281 0 10,649 0 9,003 0 1,078 0 4,302 1,103 0 0 930 0 0 0 22,121 0 34289,312 183,537 4,963 0 0 130 0 084,482 0 9,797 0 86436,518 69,785 0 0 67,013 0 034,189 0 0 286 1,927 541 1,979 0 0 47,741 0 23,757 0 8,135 0 0 3,349 929 20,362 0 0 44,814 0 216 0 0 0 380 0 32 0 0 0 0 88,625 2,975 0 260 852,339 353,157 2,128,660 0 292 4034,310 0 0 0 22,863 54,565 0 16,488 170,130 0 683,271 0 365,285 718,162 5,108 1,533 1,638280,594 0 0 3,227,890 0 1,550,442 202,700 21,240 302,923 0 368,616 6,646 10,934 10,090 268,007 0 22,380 4,871 35,182 6,612 654,253 40,895 598,036 576,732 151,855 4,053 19,674 2,392 131,175 4,810 690,257 2,201,511 3,509,152 100,955 1,603,021 679,248 760,802 4,011 24,675 0 224,798 2,450 0 0 13,997 0 02,137 5,352 70,173 6,077 22,103 3,048 54,710 22 522,748 260,032 724,949 11,730 CB ODC ICPF 0 526,287 7,600,310 0 23,588 30,806 0 245,228 1 0 0 18 0 4,264 0 7,370 72,340 81,781 01,126 40,902 2,677 0 35,964 021 0 0 1,100 225,552 1,864,236 1,027 19,219 172 0 0 0 22,419 743 23,688 98,293379,709 652 0 0 0 10,320 173 3,082 234,805165,965 11,343 0 0 0 1,327 3,153 65 0 35 0 0 02,137 451,363 1,330,976 994 12 13,365 0 0 03,736 3,642 133,688 0 647 303,347 0 69,428 117,974 37454,028 11,063 0 0 424,247 05,219 32,580 0 0 6,428 0 2,021 54,838 0 3,225 621,573 306,098 15,112 592 0 333,893 0 0 31,156 74,021 491 36,485 00 0 166,820 24,501 0 6,999 159,889 938,682 0 47,681 2,373 0 0 1,930 6,338 865,433 534 254,471 0 158 9,955 172,404 1,775 324,803 306,488 1,571 435,182 1,094,629 2,741 1,132,933 2,874,242 563 3,972 87,720 14 4,256 30,600 33 46,294 40,759 1,106 1,563,696 2,880,812 7,584 802,248 794,047 6,522 694,656 1,065,819 28 2,687 26,381 Bank of Japan OFC FA 0 0 0 210,842 0 0 0 4 0 4,075 240,010 45,011 0 38,310 11 0 9,065 108 0 1,233 568 0 8,5906 0 13,097 0 173,902 0 0 0 1,704 0 57,762 33,683 605 0 1,652 0 984 142 0 10,8217 0 3,383 233 0 43,588 43,156 357 262,865 0 21,905 1,768 791 664,1241 0 4,408 151 2,236 0 93,771 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits 0 0 0 562,554 0 6,698 0 4,092 0 186,334 0 99,672 0 214,650 0 3,575 7,458 47,603 1,341 104,155 14,964 51 824,385 Loans 299 80 273 ● 5,363 ● 1,445 ● 1,863 152 1,634 0 572 897,249 14 0 324,089 49,043 1,865 112 3,806 0 200,818 2,452 15,189 0 63,467 1,444 640,946 9,654 68,389 4,428 526,330 7,771,387 4,332,221 652,243 0 19,622 201 104,579 1,420 82,980 4,541 315,007 0 4,728 6230,987 2,865199,477 0 47,443 61,505 21,894 51,654 137,598 19,167 6,398 1,315 170,380 66,037 343,281 2,925 3,364 2,119 22,437 17,172 131 1,533 2,375 81,034 8,283 35,698 492 21 333,054 1,038 153,555 23,817 795,664 228,673 2,281,256 782 119,568 185 255,094 649 317,394 462,594 2,468,275 5,722 329,799 128,061 537,574 0 41,060 Debt securities Total W-to-W matrix 14,138 49,038 32,210 453,261 62,444 325,729 77,768 412,130 13,383 17,069 423 51,780 1,422 370,844 56,980 1,552,992 119,075 819,562 80,701 1,042,948 939 7,895 7,335 2,490 1,258 6,999 2,750 11,196 777 1,642 27 24,289 15,763 18,553 106 8/18 Method for enhancement in loans Use of Detailed Data of FFA in loans ・W-to-W matrix compiled by the basic method is comprehensive but insufficient. It rests upon a resource allocation assumption and lacks any statistical evidence. Source data on a W-to-W basis, if available, should be used. ・BOJ quarterly releases Detailed Data of FFA. It provides figures on which financial sector supplies what amount of loans to which sector. - Therefore, it can be used for enhancement of the basic matrix. Bank of Japan 9/18 Method for enhancement in loans Loan table is improved (shaded area). (100mil. yen) HH HH CG LC SSF ROW Private NFC Public NFC NPISH CB ODC ICPF OFC FA ODC ICPF OFC CG LC SSF ROW Private NFCPublic NFC NPISH CB ODC ICPF OFC FA 2 1 0 0 4 11 1 1 0 18 0 4 0 5,525 1,994 827 0 18,670 34,910 4,349 4,264 7,370 81,781 4,075 45,011 0 3,468 1,251 387 0 9,014 21,912 2,503 2,677 21 35,964 11 9,065 0 1,425 514 188 0 4,302 9,003 1,078 1,100 1,027 19,219 568 8,590 0 29,048 10,482 3,916 0 89,312 183,537 22,121 22,419 23,688 379,709 13,097 173,902 0 13,371 4,825 1,578 0 36,518 84,482 9,797 10,320 3,082 165,965 1,704 57,762 0 2,224 30 10 0 1,927 34,189 541 65 35 3,153 1,652 984 0 HH CG LC SSF ROW Private NFCPublic NFC NPISH CB ODC ICPF OFC FA 1,288 465 144 0 3,349 8,135 929 994 12 13,365 7 3,383 0 2 1 0 0 380 4 1 1 647 0 18 357 0 4 0 0 0 19 0 0 11 32 0 303,347 262,865 0 0 18,670 34,91095,9234,34977,2134,26411,0637,370 81,78121,9054,075 45,011 7,458 0 2,149,0785,525 244,9311,994 257,805 827 85 386,267 2,028,033 424,247 664,124 0 5,9829,014 21,912 5,7682,503 1,1472,677 2,021 2154,838 35,964 2,236 1193,7719,065 1,341 0 96,7933,468 2,8701,251 123,341 387 4,974 137,133 0 4,302 19,21949,043 568 0 660,4631,425 374,977 514 605,671 188 511 164,085 531,9709,003 311,9251,078 2521,10074,0211,027 324,089 897,2498,59014,964 29,048 1,533 10,482 1,6383,916 0 2,450 89,31215,112 183,537 592 22,121 491 22,419 23,688 379,709 112 13,097 3,806 173,902 0 3,967 0 0 1,865 51 13,371 4,825 1,578 0 36,518 84,482 9,797 10,320 3,082 165,965 1,704 57,762 0 2,224 30 10 0 1,927 34,189 541 65 35 3,153 1,652 984 0 1,288 465 144 0 3,349 8,135 929 994 12 13,365 7 3,383 0 0 0 19 0 380 0 32 0 647 303,347 357 262,865 0 2,174,622 221,161 242,053 85 353,157 2,128,660 88,625 69,428 11,063 424,247 21,905 664,124 7,458 83,612 35,376 56,467 292 34,310 170,130 22,863 6,428 2,021 54,838 2,236 93,771 1,341 651,808 365,285 718,162 5,108 224,798 621,573 306,098 31,156 74,021 324,089 49,043 897,249 14,964 3,967 1,533 1,638 0 2,450 15,112 592 491 0 1,865 112 3,806 51 Bank of Japan 10/18 Method for enhancement in loans Analysis of the loan table 2000 1990 CB 2010 HH ODC ROW ICPF OFC NFC GG ・The size of nodes represents the total amount of assets and liabilities within sectors. ・The thickness of lines represents the amount of exposures among sectors. ・Interconnectedness through loans are weakened from 2000 to 2010. The volume of loans provided by ODC to NFC is decreased by 30%. Bank of Japan 11/18 Method for enhancement in loans Further analysis of the loan table; between ODC and ROW - Direction can be analyzed - Loans from ODC/ROW to ROW/ODC 80 The volume of loans between ODC and ROW increased from 2000 to 2010 ・In 2010, ODC borrows more from ROW than in 2000. ・ROW borrows less from ODC than in 2000. (tril. Y en ) 70 O D C →R O W R O W →O D C 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2000 2010 Interconnectedness is enhanced mainly because of the increase of borrowings of ODC from ROW, rather than that of ROW from ODC. Bank of Japan 12/18 Method for enhancement in debt securities W-to-W matrix for debt securities (issued by resident) is compiled by specifying debtor sectors based on types of debt securities. Types of debt securities Debtor sector CP (s-term), Bank debentures & Industrial securities (l-term) Financial institutions & nonfiancial corporation Treasury discount bills (s-term), Central government securities and FILP bonds (l-term) Central government & Fiscal Loan Fund Local government securities Local governments Public corporation securities Public corporation Structured-financing instruments Structured-financing special purpose companies and trusts Bank of Japan 13/18 Method for enhancement in debt securities In Japan’s FFA, some public corporations are classified in financial institutions, nonfinancial corporation or general government. Public corporation securities issued by those sectors are supposed to be issued by “Public corporation” sector in this matrix. The advantage of the method is that flow tables can be compiled. ・In the basic method and in the method for enhancement in loans, flow tables cannot be compiled because of the difficulty in treating negative figures. Bank of Japan 14/18 Method for enhancement in debt securities – Positions – End of June 2011(Preliminary) Creditor Financial institutions Nonfinancial corporations Debtor Financial institutions & Nonfinancial corporations General government Local governments Central government Private nonprofit institutions serving households Households Social security funds (100mil. yen) Total Overseas 828,962 55,748 2,099 0 97,346 25,218 22,595 21,048 1,053,016 short-term 114,257 17,869 0 0 17 0 0 0 132,143 long-term 714,705 37,879 2,099 0 97,329 25,218 22,595 21,048 920,873 Structured-financing special purpose companies and trusts 179,272 28,838 0 0 420 0 0 5,566 214,096 Central government & Fiscal Loan Fund 6,750,277 90,091 323,808 6,929 724,466 303,839 142,625 668,652 9,010,687 short-term 1,059,723 676 320,015 0 1 0 0 247,490 1,627,905 long-term 5,690,554 89,415 3,793 6,929 724,465 303,839 142,625 421,162 7,382,782 Local governments 536,642 24,981 1,132 5,401 73,235 13,638 59,364 1,274 715,667 Public corporation 521,267 39,118 1,595 5,561 104,683 5,927 33,340 29,492 740,983 8,816,420 238,776 328,634 17,891 1,000,150 348,622 257,924 726,032 11,734,449 Total Bank of Japan 15/18 Method for enhancement in debt securities – Flows – 2nd Quarter 2011(Preliminary) Creditor Financial institutions Nonfinancial corporations General government Financial institutions & Nonfinancial corporations Local governments Central government Debtor Private nonprofit institutions serving households Households Social security funds (100mil. yen) Total Overseas 15,609 -14,165 168 0 -2,018 -20 979 927 1,480 short-term 20,657 -4,522 0 0 7 0 0 0 16,142 long-term -5,048 -9,643 168 0 -2,025 -20 979 927 -14,662 Structured-financing special purpose companies and trusts -7,748 -6,432 0 0 3 0 0 -379 -14,556 Central government & Fiscal Loan Fund 81,299 -3,940 93,730 -27 -15,858 -9,420 -929 58,038 202,893 short-term 44,058 0 91,005 0 0 0 0 -8,128 126,935 long-term 37,241 -3,940 2,725 -27 -15,858 -9,420 -929 66,166 75,958 Local governments 5,173 136 -40 114 -960 -415 1,240 -239 5,009 Public corporation 6,577 23 28 281 -354 69 1,685 316 8,625 100,910 -24,378 93,886 368 -19,187 -9,786 2,975 58,663 203,451 Total Bank of Japan 16/18 Further challenges Basic method ・ Transactions within non-residents are not covered by definition of a W-to-W framework. Therefore, the intra-sectoral transactions within ROW should be controlled to zero. Method for enhancement in loans ・The difference of the valuation method should be reconciled. (FFA: market value basis, DD of FFA: book value basis) Method for enhancement in debt securities ・The W-to-W matrix for debt securities has not yet been integrated into the basic and loan-enhanced matrix, because the composition of debtor sectors is asymmetric to creditor sectors (“Financial institutions & nonfinancial corporations” are not separated each other). ・Additional W-to-W information by each type of securities is required. Bank of Japan 17/18 Further challenges Basic method has limitations for illustrating actual intersectoral relationship. In order to make W-to-W matrix fully competent, steady efforts such as applying “Detailed Data of FFA” or utilizing carefully compiled W-to-W matrix for debt securities are critically important. Bank of Japan 18/18 Thank you for your attention Bank of Japan