Economics of Investments in Early
Childhood Development
Paris, France
June 22, 2010
Steve Barnett, PhD
Impacts of ECD Investments
Educational Success and Economic Productivity
 Achievement test scores
 Special education and grade repetition
 High school graduation
 Behavior problems, delinquency, and crime
 Employment, earnings, and welfare dependency
 Smoking, drug use, depression
Decreased Costs to Government
 Schooling costs
 Social services costs
 Crime costs
 Health care costs (teen pregnancy and smoking)
Barnett, W. S. (2002) Early childhood education. In A. Molnar (Ed.) School reform proposals: The research evidence (pp.1-26). Greenwich, CT: Information Age
Publishing.
Meta-Analysis of US Research Since 1960
N= 123 Intervention Studies
Effects on Cognitive Abilities (higher quality studies)
.70 sd initial effect (.90 max)
.35 sd at ages 5-10 (.60 max)
.30 sd at age >10 (.45 max)
Effect on Social-Emotional & Behavior
.14 sd no change over time, larger in higher quality
Effect on Schooling (grade rep., spec. ed., grad.)
.15 sd no change over time
Camilli et al. (2010) Meta-Analysis. Teachers College Record.
Meta-Analysis of Research Globally
N= 38 Intervention Studies (higher quality studies)
Cognitive Ability Effects:
.30 sd at ages 5-18
.41 sd at age >18
.27 sd Effect: Social-Emotional & Behavior
.27 sd Effect: Schooling
.31 sd Effect: Health
.26 sd Low/Middle income countries
.32 sd Upper Middle/High income countries
Three Benefit-Cost Analyses with
Disadvantaged Children
Abecedarian
1972
Chicago
High/Scope
Year began
1985
1962
Chapel Hill, NC Chicago, IL Ypsilanti, MI
Location
Sample size
111
1,539
123
Matched
Design
RCT
RCT
neighborhood
Ages
Program
schedule
6 wks-age 5
Ages 3-4
Full-day, year Half-day,
round
school year
Ages 3-4
Half-day,
school year
Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and
policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool education:
Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144; Schweinhart, L. J., Montie, J., Xiang, Z., Barnett, W.
S., Belfield, C. R., & Nores, M. (2005). Lifetime effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool study through age 40 (Monographs of the High/Scope Educational
Research Foundation, 14). Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation.
Economic Returns to Pre-K
for Disadvantaged Children
(In 2006 dollars, 3% discount rate)
Cost
Benefits
B/C
 Perry Pre-K
$17,599
$284,086
16
 Abecedarian
$70,697
$176,284
2.5
 Chicago
$ 8,224
$ 83,511
10
Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and
policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Belfield, C., Nores, M., Barnett, W.S., & Schweinhart, L.J. (2006). The High/Scope Perry
Preschool Program. Journal of Human Resources, 41(1), 162-190; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool
education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144.
High/Scope Perry Preschool:
Educational Effects
Program group
No-program group
15%
Special Education
(Cog.)
34%
49%
Age 14 achievement
at 10th %ile +
15%
66%
Graduated from high
school on time
0%
45%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Berrueta-Clement, J.R., Schweinhart, L.J., Barnett, W.S., Epstein, A.S., & Weikart, D.P. (1984). Changed lives: The effects of the Perry Preschool Program on
youths through age 19. Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press.
High/Scope Perry Preschool:
Economic Effects at Age 27
Program group
No-program group
Earn $2,000 +
monthly
29%
7%
36%
Own home
13%
41%
Never on welfare
as adult
20%
0%
5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Barnett, W.S. (1996). Lives in the balance: Benefit-cost analysis of the Perry Preschool Program through age 27. Monographs of the High/Scope Educational
Research Foundation. Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press.
High/Scope Perry Preschool:
Arrests per person by age 27
Felony
Program
0.7
No program
1.2
Misdemeanor
0.5
1.5
0.0
Juvenile
2.3 arrests
2.5
1.0
2.0
0.6
3.0
4.0
4.6 arrests
5.0
6.0
Barnett, W.S. (1996). Lives in the balance: Benefit-cost analysis of the Perry Preschool Program through age 27. Monographs of the High/Scope
Educational Research Foundation. Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press.
Chicago CPC: Academic and
Social Benefits at School Exit
Program group
No-program group
50%
HS Graduation
39%
14%
Special Education
25%
23%
Grade Repeater
38%
17%
Juvenile Arrest
0%
25%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs.
Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144
Is Pre-K Just for Disadvantaged ?
School failure is not limited to the poor
All children gain from pre-K
Disadvantaged children gain more
Peer effects may be substantial
Better coverage of disadvantaged children
in universal programs
Higher cost, but a larger net benefit
Cognitive Development Gap
Median Abilities of Entering Kindergarteners by Family Income
60.00
55.00
Lost Potential Growth
Lost Potential Growth
Reading
Math
50.00
General
Know ledge
45.00
40.00
Low est 20%
4th Quintile
Middle 20%
2nd Quintile
Highest 20%
Barnett, W. S. (2007). Original analysis of data from the US Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, ECLS-K Base Year Data files
and Electronic Codebook (2002).
Social Skills Gap
Median Social Skills of Entering Kindergarteners by Income
9.60
9.40
Lost Potential Growth
9.20
9.00
8.80
8.60
8.40
Lowest 20%
4th Quintile
Middle 20%
2nd Quintile
Highest 20%
Barnett, W. S. (2007). Original analysis of data from the US Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, ECLS-K Base Year Data files
and Electronic Codebook (2002).
School Failure and the Middle Class
Middle class children have fairly high rates of failure.
Reducing these problems could generate large benefits.
Income
Lowest 20%
20-80%
Highest 20%
Retention (2004)
12%
8%
4%
Dropout (2005)
18%
9%
2%
Barnett, W. S. (in press). Benefits and costs of quality early childhood education. The Children's Legal Rights Journal (CLRJ), Spring 2007. US
Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, October 2004 and October 2005.
Program Quality Matters
•
•
•
•
•
Designed to be educationally effective
Implemented as Designed
Strong Staff and good ratio
Strong Supervision and Monitoring
Use data to Inform Policy & Practice
Conclusions
 ECDI can be a strong public investment
 Decreased social problems and inequality
 Increased productivity and GDP growth
 Care and education considered together
 Not just for the disadvantaged
 High quality (educational effectiveness) is key