Chapter 17 Domestic and International Dimensions of Monetary Policy Introduction It is up to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to determine whether the pace of money supply growth will be aimed at maintaining a steady rate of inflation. If so, then the interest rate will fluctuate. Why are these two variables related? Slide 17-2 Learning Objectives Identify the key factors that influence the quantity of money that people desire to hold Describe how the Federal Reserve’s tools of monetary policy affect the level of real GDP and the price level Evaluate how expansionary and contractionary monetary policy actions affect equilibrium real GDP and the price level in the short run Slide 17-3 Learning Objectives Understand the equation of exchange and its importance in the crude quantity theory of money and prices Distinguish between the Keynesian and monetarist views on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy Explain why the Federal Reserve cannot stabilize both the money supply and the interest rate simultaneously Slide 17-4 Chapter Outline What’s So Special About Money? The Tools of Monetary Policy Effects of an Increase in the Money Supply Open Economy Transmission of Monetary Policy Slide 17-5 Chapter Outline Monetary Policy and Inflation Monetary Policy in Action: The Transmission Mechanism Fed Target Choice: Interest Rates or Money Supply? The Way Fed Policy is Currently Announced Slide 17-6 Did You Know That… The European Central Bank oversees the EMU money supply, including transaction account balances held within the member nations? The level of the money supply in an economy will affect the position of the aggregate demand curve? Slide 17-7 What’s So Special About Money? Money is the product of a “social contract” in which we all agree to: – Express all prices in terms of a common unit of account, which in the United States we call the dollar – Use a specific medium of exchange for market transactions Slide 17-8 What’s So Special About Money? Anything that affects the amount of money in existence is going to affect all markets. Holding money – To use money, one must hold money. If people desire to hold money, there is a demand for money. Slide 17-9 What’s So Special About Money? The demand for money: the amount of money people wish to hold – Transactions demand – Precautionary demand – Asset demand Slide 17-10 What’s So Special About Money? Transactions Demand – Holding money as a medium of exchange to make payments – The level varies directly with nominal national income Slide 17-11 What’s So Special About Money? Precautionary Demand – Holding money to meet unplanned expenditures and emergencies – The level varies with the interest rate Slide 17-12 What’s So Special About Money? Asset Demand – Holding money as a store of value instead of other assets – The level varies with the interest rate Slide 17-13 What’s So Special About Money? The demand for money curve – The amount of money demanded for transactions purposes is fixed given the level of income – Precautionary and asset demand are determined by the opportunity cost of holding money (the interest rate) Slide 17-14 Interest Rate The Demand for Money Curve Md Quantity of Money Figure 17-1 Slide 17-15 The Demand for Money Curve B Interest Rate r2 • When the interest rate rises the opportunity cost of holding money increases and the quantity of money demanded falls • The location of Md is determined by the level of income A r1 Md Q1 Q2 Quantity of Money Slide 17-16 The Tools of Monetary Policy Open market operations – The Fed changes reserves by buying and selling government bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. Slide 17-17 Determining the Price of Bonds S1 Price of Bonds P1 Contractionary Policy • Fed sells bonds • Supply of bonds increases • Bond prices fall D Quantity of Bonds per Unit Time Period Figure 17-2, Panel (a) Slide 17-18 Determining the Price of Bonds S1 Price of Bonds P1 S2 Contractionary Policy • Fed sells bonds • Supply of bonds increases • Bond prices fall P2 D Quantity of Bonds per Unit Time Period Figure 17-2, Panel (a) Slide 17-19 Determining the Price of Bonds Price of Bonds S1 Expansionary Policy • Fed buys bonds • Supply of bonds falls • Bond prices rise P1 D Quantity of Bonds per Unit Time Period Figure 17-2, Panel (b) Slide 17-20 Determining the Price of Bonds S3 Price of Bonds P3 S1 Expansionary Policy • Fed buys bonds • Supply of bonds falls • Bond prices rise P1 D Quantity of Bonds per Unit Time Period Figure 17-2, Panel (b) Slide 17-21 The Tools of Monetary Policy Relationship between the price of existing bonds and the rate of interest – What happens to the interest on a bond when the price of a bond increases (decreases)? Slide 17-22 The Tools of Monetary Policy Example – You pay $1,000 for a bond that pays $50/year in interest $50 Rate of interest = = 5% $1000 Slide 17-23 The Tools of Monetary Policy Example – Now suppose you pay $500 for the same bond $50 Rate of interest = = 10% $500 Slide 17-24 The Tools of Monetary Policy The market price of existing bonds (and all fixed-income assets) is inversely related to the rate of interest prevailing in the economy. Slide 17-25 The Tools of Monetary Policy Changes in the discount rate Increasing the discount rate increases the cost of borrowed funds for depository institutions that borrow reserves Decreasing the discount rate decreases the cost of borrowed funds for depository institutions that borrow reserves Slide 17-26 The Tools of Monetary Policy Changes in the discount rate – Why is the discount rate a less important monetary tool today that in the 1920s? – Since 2002, the Fed has kept the discount rate 1 percentage point above the marketdetermined federal funds rate. Slide 17-27 The Tools of Monetary Policy Changing the discount rate relative to the federal funds rate – The Fed has been keeping the discount rate one percentage point above the federal funds rate. – This discourages borrowing from the Fed. Slide 17-28 The Tools of Monetary Policy Changes in the reserve requirements – An increase in the required reserve ratio • Makes it more expensive for banks to meet reserve requirements • Reduces bank lending – A decrease in the required reserve ratio • Makes it less expensive for banks to meet reserve requirements • Increases bank lending Slide 17-29 Effects of an Increase in the Money Supply When the money supply increases, people have too much money. – How can this be? – Have you ever had too much money? – If you have a savings account, then at some point you had too much money. – Money is not the same thing as income. Slide 17-30 International Example: Controlling Growth of the Money Supply In Zimbabwe, government officials tried to stem an inflationary growth of the money supply by no longer printing the highest denomination currency note. But this did not reduce the demand for money, as citizens simply chose to hold more lower denomination notes. Slide 17-31 Monetary Policy During Periods of Underutilized Resources Monetary policy can generate increases in the equilibrium level of real GDP. Slide 17-32 Expansionary Monetary Policy with Underutilized Resources Price Level LRAS SRAS • The contractionary gap is caused by insufficient AD • To increase AD, use expansionary monetary policy • AD increases and real GDP increases to full employment E1 120 Recessionary gap AD1 0 Figure 17-3 11.5 12.0 Real GDP per Year ($ trillions) Slide 17-33 Expansionary Monetary Policy with Underutilized Resources LRAS SRAS Price Level 125 • The contractionary gap is caused by insufficient AD • To increase AD, use expansionary monetary policy • AD increases and real GDP increases to full employment E2 E1 120 AD2 Recessionary gap AD1 0 Figure 17-3 11.5 12.0 Real GDP per Year ($ trillions) Slide 17-34 Tools of Monetary Policy Contractionary monetary policy: effects on aggregate demand, the price level, and real GDP – Question • What will happen? Slide 17-35 Contractionary Monetary Policy via Open Market Operations Figure 17-4 Slide 17-36 Open Economy Transmission of Monetary Policy The net export effect – Impact of expansionary monetary policy • • • • • increase the money supply interest rates fall value of the dollar falls net exports increase the net export effect complements the effectiveness of monetary policy Slide 17-37 Open Economy Transmission of Monetary Policy The net export effect – Impact of expansionary fiscal policy revisited • • • • • • larger deficit higher interest rates attracts foreign capital value of the dollar appreciates net exports fall net export effect reduces the effectiveness of fiscal policy Slide 17-38 International Policy Example: The Effect of the Exchange Rate on Net Exports In 2003, nominal interest rates in Switzerland were close to zero, as an expansionary monetary policy had been employed to combat a recession. The expansionary policy served also to depreciate the Swiss franc, which stimulated net exports. It was this open economy effect that accounted for the eventual increase in aggregate demand, ending the recession. Slide 17-39 Open Economy Transmission of Monetary Policy Globalization of international money markets – How will global money markets impact the Fed's ability to control the rate of growth in the money supply? Slide 17-40 Monetary Policy and Inflation Short-run inflation – Temporarily shocks the SRAS and AD Long-run inflation – The supply of money expands relative to the demand for money – Takes more units of money to purchase given quantities of goods and services (i.e., the price level has risen) Slide 17-41 Monetary Policy and Inflation The Equation of Exchange – The formula indicating that the number of monetary units times the number of times each unit is spent on final goods and services is identical to the price level times output (or nominal national income) MsV = PY Slide 17-42 Monetary Policy and Inflation The equation of exchange and the quantity theory: MSV = PY – MS = actual money balances held by non-banking public – V = income velocity of money; the number of times, on average, cash monetary units are spent on final goods and services Slide 17-43 Monetary Policy and Inflation The equation of exchange and the quantity theory: MSV = PY – P = price level – Y = real national output per year Slide 17-44 Monetary Policy and Inflation The equation of exchange as an identity MsV = PY PY = nominal national income MsV = nominal national spending Slide 17-45 Monetary Policy and Inflation The crude quantity theory of money and prices – Assume: V is constant Q is stable MsV = PY Slide 17-46 Monetary Policy and Inflation The crude quantity theory of money and prices – Increases in Ms must be matched by equal increases in the price level MsV = PY Slide 17-47 Adding Monetary Policy to the Keynesian Model Interest Rate MS M’S r1 Md Quantity of Money Figure 17-7, Panel (a) Slide 17-48 Adding Monetary Policy to the Keynesian Model Interest Rate MS M’S At lower rates, a larger quantity of money will be demanded r1 Interest rate falls r2 Md Quantity of Money Figure 17-7, Panel (a) Slide 17-49 Interest Rate Adding Monetary Policy to the Keynesian Model r1 I I1 Planned Investment Figure 17-7, Panel (b) Slide 17-50 Interest Rate Adding Monetary Policy to the Keynesian Model The decrease in the interest rate stimulates investment r1 r2 I I1 I2 Planned Investment Figure 17-7, Panel (b) Slide 17-51 Adding Monetary Policy to the Keynesian Model LRAS Price Level SRAS E1 AD1 0 Figure 17-7, Panel (c) 11.5 12.0 Real GDP per Year ($ trillions) Slide 17-52 Adding Monetary Policy to the Keynesian Model LRAS Price Level SRAS E2 E1 The increase in investment shifts the AD curve to the right AD2 AD1 0 Figure 17-7, Panel (c) 11.5 12.0 Real GDP per Year ($ trillions) Slide 17-53 Monetary Policy in Action: The Transmission Mechanism The monetarist’s views of money supply changes – Macroeconomists who believe that inflation is always caused by excessive monetary growth and that changes in the money supply affect AD both directly and indirectly Slide 17-54 Monetary Policy in Action: The Transmission Mechanism The monetarist’s views of money supply changes – Increase in the money supply increases aggregate demand directly – Based on the equation of exchange, prices always rise when the money supply is increased Slide 17-55 Monetary Policy in Action: The Transmission Mechanism Monetarists’ criticism of monetary policy – Time lags are too long to use monetary policy effectively – Monetary policy is seen as a destabilizing force Slide 17-56 Monetary Policy in Action: The Transmission Mechanism Monetary Rule – A monetary policy that incorporates a rule specifying the annual rate of growth of some monetary aggregate – Example • Increase in the money supply smoothly at a rate consistent with the economy’s long-run average growth rate Slide 17-57 Monetary Policy in Action: The Transmission Mechanism What do you think? – What would happen to the effectiveness of the monetary rule if the velocity of money is not stable? Slide 17-58 Fed Target Choice: Interest Rates or Money Supply? It is not possible to stabilize the money supply and interest rate simultaneously. Slide 17-59 Choosing a Monetary Policy Target M’S Interest Rate MS Md Quantity of Money Figure 17-8 Slide 17-60 Choosing a Monetary Policy Target MS M’S Interest Rate If the Fed selects re, it must accept Ms re r1 A D C B If the Fed selects M’s, it must allow the interest rate to fall Md Quantity of Money Figure 17-8 Slide 17-61 Fed Target Choice: Interest Rates or Money Supply? Target interest rates – The money supply will be unstable Target the money supply – The interest rate will be unstable Slide 17-62 Fed Target Choice: Interest Rates or Money Supply? Choosing a target – Interest rates • When the demand for money is unstable – Money supply • When variations in private spending occur Slide 17-63 The Way Fed Policy is Currently Announced No matter what the Fed is actually targeting, it only announces an interest rate target. The current strategy is outlined in the FOMC directive. This strategy is implemented through open market operations conducted by the Trading Desk of the New York Federal Reserve. Slide 17-64 Issues and Applications: Maintaining Federal Reserve Targets The Trading Desk of the New York Federal Reserve Bank implements the Federal Open Market Committee directives. If a lowering of interest rates is called for, then the Fed will purchase bonds, pumping reserves into the banking system. Slide 17-65 Issues and Applications: Maintaining Federal Reserve Targets The Fed sells bonds, drawing reserves from the banking system, when a contractionary measure in needed. The Fed does not set the federal funds rate explicitly, but it changes the level of reserves in depository institutions, and this influences the money supply. Slide 17-66 Summary Discussion of Learning Objectives Key factors that influence the quantity of money that people desire to hold: – To make transactions – To hold for precautionary reasons – To hold as an asset (store of value) Slide 17-67 Summary Discussion of Learning Objectives How the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tools influence market interest rates – Open market purchases, reducing the discount rate, or reducing the required reserve ratio increases the money supply and lowers the interest rate. – Open market sales, raising the discount rate, or increasing the required reserve ratio decreases the money supply and raises the interest rate. Slide 17-68 Summary Discussion of Learning Objectives How expansionary and contractionary monetary policy affect equilibrium real GDP and the price level in the short run – Expansionary monetary policy • Increase real GDP • Decrease the price level – Contractionary monetary policy • Decrease real GDP • Decrease the price level Slide 17-69 Summary Discussion of Learning Objectives The equation of exchange and the crude quantity theory of money and prices – Equation of exchange • MV = PY – Crude quantity theory of money and prices • V is constant and Y is Stable • Increases in M cause proportionate increases in P Slide 17-70 Summary Discussion of Learning Objectives Keynesian versus monetarist views on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy – Keynesian transmission mechanism • Changes in interest rates cause changes in investment which change equilibrium real GDP – Monetarist transmission mechanism • Changes in the money supply change desired spending Slide 17-71 Summary Discussion of Learning Objectives Why the Federal Reserve cannot stabilize the money supply and the interest rate simultaneously – To target a market interest rate the Fed must adjust the money supply as necessary when the demand for money changes – To target the money supply the Fed must permit the interest rate to vary when the demand for money changes Slide 17-72 End of Chapter 17 Domestic and International Dimensions of Monetary Policy