Demographics is Destiny (isn’t
it)
“Socioeconomic factors structure a state
government’s problems and affect their
ability to deal with them.” Virginia Grey
Why do different states choose
different policies?
• Socioeconomic
• Demographic
• Geographic
– structure a state government’s problems
– affect their ability to deal with them
– affect their politics
Rich State, Poor State (pci)
Mississippi
West Virginia
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kentucky
Utah
Idaho
New Mexico
Alabama
Montana
28,845
Colorado
29,537 Virginia
30,060 N. Hampshire
31,013
California
31,111 Wyoming
31,189 Maryland
31,197 New York
31,474 Massachusetts
32,404 New Jersey
32,458 Connecticut
41,042
41,347
41,512
41,571
43,226
46,021
47,385
49,082
49,194
54,117
Rich vs. Poor
Industrial vs. Agricultural
Industrial vs. Agricultural
Growing or Shrinking?
Internal Migration Trends
• Move from frost belt states to sun belt states
– CA, TX, & FL account for half of the entire nation’s
population growth in the ‘80s and ‘90s
• Rust belt states losing population
– School consolidation
• Sunbelt states have to pay for new highways,
classrooms, prisons, etc.
Internal Migration Trends
• Flight from central cities to suburbs
– White flight
– Population density
• Coastal states densely populated
• Rural urbanized splits within states like IL
– 64% live in Chicago area versus downstate
Internal Demograhics
Urban vs. Rural
Urbanization
Ethnically Diverse vs. Relatively
Homogeneous
2/3 of Immigrants Lived in
6 States, 2000
Immigration Categories
6 Main Destination States (67% of Immigrants in 2000)
But Top 10 States with Fastest
Growing F.B. Pops. Are Different
Immigration Categories
6 Main Destination States (67% of Immigrants in 2000)
Top 10 Growth States 1990-2000 (135-274%)
In 1990, Almost Half of All U.S. Counties Had Less Than 1% Foreign-Born, and Only OneTenth Had 5% or More.
© 2006 POPULATION
REFERENCE
BUREAU
Source:
U.S. Census
Bureau, 1990 decennial census.
By 2000, Only One-Fourth of U.S. Counties Had Less Than 1% Foreign-Born, and One in
Five Had 5% or More.
© 2006 POPULATION
REFERENCE
BUREAU
Source:
U.S. Census
Bureau, 2000 decennial census.
nd
Internal Migration Trends
• Poverty
– 24% of MS is poor versus 7.3% of NH
• Education
– 1/4 of population not high school graduates
– 1/3 in South
– 20% in West
• Immigrants
– 3/4ths of immigrants are in CA, FL, IL, NJ, NY, TX
• 1/3 of Lowell, MA are Cambodian
• 20% of AZ, CA, NM, NY, TX, HI do not speak English at
home
Place
• States are constrained by natural resource
endowments
– Land
• Larger states like TX have larger legislative districts, harder
to campaign
• NH has small districts, can one-on-one campaign
– Location and Climate
• Location: Near ocean or waterway have advantage
– Example: FedEx in Memphis
• Climate: People prefer warm to cold
– Natural Resources
• Oil, minerals, agricultural producers
– Oil and mineral producers are more dependent on prices
– WY, AL, LA
Origins of Differences
• Tectonic Plates
– Tourists go to FL because it is warm
• FL can rely on sales tax to pay for government
– LA, TX tax oil and natural gas
Origins of Differences
• Rivers of New England powered the
region in 19th century to build
manufacturing economy
– Urban living
– Labor unions
– Political machines
Origins of Differences
• Soil and climate of Southwest led to cotton
and tobacco farming
– Big plantations
– Slavery
– Jim Crow
Origins of Differences
• Interstate differences
– Geographic variation based on who lives near
coasts or rivers
Origins of Differences
• History
– 11 states seceded during Civil War
– Politics of these states still have unique qualities
– Resentment of Union occupation during
Reconstruction instilled hostility for national
government
– Even though very conservative, have been dominated
by Democratic Party since Lincoln was a Republican
1888, 2000,
1976, 1892
Geology of Political Culture
• Function of immigration and migration
• Puritans in NE, holy commonwealth
• Spread across northern PA, OH to create
greater NE in MI, WI, MN, IA
• Joined by Scandinavians with similar
religious traditional orientation
• Moralistic culture flourishes
Geology of Political Culture
• Different ethnic and religious backgrounds
setting in middle parts of nation
–
–
–
–
–
NY, NJ, DE, MD
Diverse groups searching for individual opportunity
Pursuit of private ends, individualistic goals
Move into OH, IL
Move to gold fields of CA and filling out states inbetween
Geology of Political Culture
• Southern states
– Seek commercial gain
– Plantation centered agricultural system based on anticommercial orientation and slavery
– Landed gentry: development of traditional political
culture, landed gentry occupies greater roles at
expense of small landholders
– VA people settle KY, NC, influences in TN, etc.
Why Does this Work?
• Competition between parties is stronger in
moralistic states
• Moralistic states made greater use of merit
systems, more policy innovation, greater
economic equality
(Dependent) Policy Variable
• % of citizens not covered by health insurance
• Range:
– low Minnesota 7.3%
– high New Mexico 25.6%
– average 15.4%
– Median 13.5%
• Source US Census 1995
Relationship of % Uninsured to %
Unemployed
% w/out Health
Insurance
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
% Unemployed
15
State Political Culture
• Moralist, 17 states
• Individualist, 17 states
• Traditionalist, 16 states
10 Best States, 6 moralist
WISCONSINmoralist
MINNESOTAmoralist
NORTH DAKOTA
moralist
CONNECTICUT
individualist
HAWAII
individualist
NEBRASKAindividualist
SOUTH DAKOTA
moralist
MICHIGAN moralist
PENNSYLVANIA
individualist
NEW HAMPSHIRE
moralist
7.30
8.00
8.30
8.80
8.90
9.00
9.40
9.70
9.90
10.00
10 Worst States, 8 traditional
GEORGIA traditionalist
FLORIDA traditionalist
NEVADA individualist
OKLAHOMAtraditionalist
MISSISSIPPI
traditionalist
ARIZONA traditionalist
LOUISIANA traditionalist
CALIFORNIAmoralist
TEXAS
traditionalist
NEW MEXICO
traditionalist
17.90
18.30
18.70
19.20
19.70
20.40
20.50
20.60
24.50
25.60
State Political Culture
• Only 3 moralist states in bottom 25 of health
coverage (CA, CO, ID)
• CA only moralist state in bottom 15
• No traditional states in top 25 of health
coverage
Voter Turnout in Legislative
Elections (Top 10)
IOWA
moralist
NEBRASKA
individualist
ALASKA
individualist
IDAHO
moralist
VERMONT
moralist
NORTH DAKOTA
moralist
OREGON
moralist
MINNESOTA moralist
MAINE
moralist
MONTANA
moralist
WYOMING
individualist
SOUTH DAKOTA
moralist
46.3
47.9
48.5
49
49.3
50.4
51.6
52
54
56.5
57.2
58.6
Voter Turnout in Legislative
Elections (Bottom 10)
LOUISIANA
traditionalist
FLORIDA
traditionalist
KENTUCKY
traditionalist
WEST VIRGINIAtraditionalist
NORTH CAROLINA
traditionalist
TEXAS
traditionalist
SOUTH CAROLINA
traditionalist
MISSISSIPPI traditionalist
NEW JERSEY individualist
NEW YORK individualist
22.4
26.3
27.5
29.3
29.6
31.3
31.7
32.6
33.6
33.8
State Minority Population
• Equals % Hispanic + % black
– High NM, TX 42%
– Low ME, VT 1%
– Average 16%
• State Hispanic population
– Low West Virginia .6%
– High New Mexico 40.7%
– Average 6.9%
• State Black Population
– Low Montana, 2.4%
– High Mississippi 36.8%
– Average 9.9%
Demographic Variables (cont)
• State Hispanic population
–
–
–
–
Low West Virginia .6%
High New Mexico 40.7%
Average 6.9%
Median 3.9%
• State Black Population
–
–
–
–
Low Montana, 2.4%
High Mississippi 36.8%
Average 9.9%
Median 6.9%
Relationship of % Minority % of
Uninsured
% of Residents with No
Health Insurance
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
10
20
30
40
% of Color (% black + % hispanic)
50
• V. Gray’s Hypothesis
– Land, location, migration, occupation,
economy, income structure a state’s politics
and policies
– “Demography is destiny.”
• Relationship between per capita income
(PCI) and State spending on education
Per Capita $ on Education
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
$20 000
$25 000
$30 000
$35 000
$40 000
PCI
$45 000
$50 000
$55 000
$60 000
National Center for Education
Statistics
New York
U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Survey of
Current Business
60 000
50 000
40 000
Income
30 000
Expenditures ($1000)
20 000
10 000
0
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2009
Alabama
120 000
100 000
80 000
Education ($100s)
60 000
PCI
40 000
20 000
0
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2009
Per Capita $ on Education
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
$20 000
$25 000
$30 000
$35 000
$40 000
PCI
$45 000
$50 000
$55 000
$60 000
State
PCI Rank
Rank, per-capita higher ed $
Rank, per-capita E&S $
Georgia
39
47
19
Iowa
28
7
25
Massachu
setts
3
42
9
New
Jersey
2
39
2
South
Dakota
26
41
45
Wisconsin
27
14
18
Utah
49
6
46
Alabama
41
13
39
County
Per Capita Income
New York County (Manhattan)
Westchester County
Nassau County
Putnam County
Rockland County
Suffolk County
Saratoga County
Jefferson County
Herkimer County
Cattaraugus County
Franklin County
$42,922
$36,726
$32,151
$30,127
$28,082
$26,577
$23,945
$16,202
$16,141
$15,959
$15,888
St. Lawrence County
Allegany County
Lewis County
$15,728
$14,975
$14,971
Bronx County (The Bronx)
$13,959
Average teacher salary (Y) vs. PCI for NY
$90 000
$85 000
$80 000
$75 000
$70 000
$65 000
$60 000
$55 000
$50 000
$45 000
$40 000
$10 000
$15 000
$20 000
$25 000
$30 000
$35 000
$40 000
$45 000
$55,00
$50,00
PCI ($1000)
$45,00
$40,00
$35,00
$30,00
$25,00
20
30
40
50
60
high tech score
70
80
90
• Demography is not destiny
– Necessary but not sufficient
– Policy outcomes are the product of political
choices
• Relative liberalism of state government, power of
teachers, taxation system, views of elected officials,
– Critical
• State measures
• Elazar defines political culture as "the particular
pattern of orientation to political action in which
each political system is imbedded.“
–
–
–
–
Origins
Attitude toward elections
Role of Officials
Role for government
• Most commonly used variable in state politics!
– Political outcomes
– Policy outcomes
(Dependent) Policy Variable
• % of citizens not covered by health insurance
• Range:
– low Minnesota 7.3%
– high New Mexico 25.6%
– average 15.4%
– Median 13.5%
• Source US Census 1995
Relationship of % Uninsured to %
Unemployed
% w/out Health
Insurance
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
% Unemployed
15
State Political Culture
• Moralist, 17 states
• Individualist, 17 states
• Traditionalist, 16 states
% Uninsured
WISCONSINmoralist
MINNESOTAmoralist
NORTH DAKOTA
moralist
CONNECTICUT
individualist
HAWAII
individualist
NEBRASKAindividualist
SOUTH DAKOTA
moralist
MICHIGAN moralist
PENNSYLVANIA
individualist
NEW HAMPSHIRE
moralist
7.30
8.00
8.30
8.80
8.90
9.00
9.40
9.70
9.90
10.00
10 Worst States, 8 traditional
GEORGIA traditionalist
FLORIDA traditionalist
NEVADA individualist
OKLAHOMAtraditionalist
MISSISSIPPI
traditionalist
ARIZONA traditionalist
LOUISIANA traditionalist
CALIFORNIAmoralist
TEXAS
traditionalist
NEW MEXICO
traditionalist
17.90
18.30
18.70
19.20
19.70
20.40
20.50
20.60
24.50
25.60
State Political Culture
• Only 3 moralist states in bottom 25 of health
coverage (CA, CO, ID)
• CA only moralist state in bottom 15
• No traditional states in top 25 of health
coverage
Voter Turnout in Legislative
Elections (Top 10)
IOWA
moralist
NEBRASKA
individualist
ALASKA
individualist
IDAHO
moralist
VERMONT
moralist
NORTH DAKOTA
moralist
OREGON
moralist
MINNESOTA moralist
MAINE
moralist
MONTANA
moralist
WYOMING
individualist
SOUTH DAKOTA
moralist
46.3
47.9
48.5
49
49.3
50.4
51.6
52
54
56.5
57.2
58.6
Voter Turnout in Legislative
Elections (Bottom 10)
LOUISIANA
traditionalist
FLORIDA
traditionalist
KENTUCKY
traditionalist
WEST VIRGINIAtraditionalist
NORTH CAROLINA
traditionalist
TEXAS
traditionalist
SOUTH CAROLINA
traditionalist
MISSISSIPPI traditionalist
NEW JERSEY individualist
NEW YORK individualist
22.4
26.3
27.5
29.3
29.6
31.3
31.7
32.6
33.6
33.8
Moralistic States
• the origin of moralistic culture lies in the Puritan
settlement of New England
• "[t]he puritans came . . . intending to establish the best
possible earthly version of the holy commonwealth"
• "public officials will themselves seek to initiate new
government activities in an effort to come to grips with
problems as yet unperceived by a majority of the citizenry.
• Officials are “held to high standards of public service in the
general interest”
• Elections-> high policy content
• party switching, third party candidacies, and non-partisan
competition
Socio-Economic and Demographic Analysis of your
States
• http://www.skidmore.edu/~bturner/