Is There a Culture War?
Or
How to think like a political
scientist
Cultural Quiz– Are you from a
blue state or a red state
Who are these guys?
Do you shop here?
Or here?
Or here?
Or here?
What do these stand for?
Why do Americans believe
there is a culture war?
Red vs. Blue America 2004
49% Nation- Michael Barone
49% Nation
60.0%
58.0%
56.0%
54.0%
52.0%
50.0%
48.0%
46.0%
44.0%
42.0%
40.0%
49.2%
Clinton 96
48.5% 48.9%
House 96
47.8%
48.9%
House 98
48.4% 47.9%
Presid 00
D
R
Winning Party % Vote
50.4
2004 GOP Bush Vote
50.7
52.9
48.3
2000 GOP House Vote
48.4
1998 GOP House Vote
48.9
48.9
49.2
1996 Clinton Vote
30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Is America Deeply Divided?
“You’ve got 80% to 90% of the country
that look at each other like they are on
separate planets” Matthew Dowd,
Bush reelection strategist
“The red states get redder, the blue
states get bluer, and the political map of
the US takes on the coloration of the
Civil War” E.J. Dionne Jr.
Party Activists More Polarized
Government should do more to
solve national problems
Cut taxes to improve economy
Abortion available
Anti-terroism laws restrict civil
liberties
Important to work w/UN
Delegate Difference ID diffrence
72
13
67
35
62
32
62
72
Difference between party activists and normal GOP and DEM
NYT/CBS Poll 2004 (p. 17)
28
35
Prevalence of Activists
in millions
Move-On Email List 1.2
Watch O'Reilly Factor 3.3
Saw Fahrenheit 9/11
17.5
Listen to Rush Limbaugh
15.5
Didn’t vote in 2004
Voted in 2004
0
50
80
122
100
150
Confusing Positions with
Choices
Red vs. Blue America 2004
No Swing Voters
7 of Top 8 Kerry State have GOP
governors
9 states that Bush carries by 10%+
have Democratic governors
Red vs. Blue America 2004
Red vs. Blue America
Evidence of Deep Divide?
Red and Blue States should have big
differences on
policy preferences
 Ideological positions
 Views on abortion
 Views on homosexuality

Red vs. Blue America 2004
Barone/Rove Hypothesis
Two Americas
“observant, tradition minded, moralistic…
repelled by Bill Clinton”
 “unobservant, liberation-minded, relativist”
pleased with Bill Clinton”

Evidence of Deep Divide?
Red and Blue States should have big
differences on
policy preferences
 Ideological positions
 Views on abortion
 Views on homosexuality

Table 2.1, p. 10
Big Differences between Red
and Blue State Voters?
Table 3.4, Beliefs and Perceptions p. 39
Issue Sentiments, p. 40
Religion and Moral Views p. 41
International affairs, p. 52-53
% Agreeing 2000; Table 3.8, p. 44
p. 46-
Abortion
Gender Gap
North-South Divisions
Deep divides?
Pew Foundation, The 2004 Political
Landscape
Are Americans Polarized on
Abortion?
Don't know
8%
Don't feel
that way
46%
Abortion is
an act of
murder
46%
“Some people say that abortion is an act of murder, while
other people disagree with this. What is your view– do you
think abortion is an act of murder or don’t you feel this
way?
2003 Harris/CNN/Time Poll
Please tell me whether or not you
think it should be possible for a
pregnant woman to obtain a legal
abortion if
the woman’s health is serious endangered
2. she became pregnant as a result of rape
3. there is a strong change of serious defect in the baby
4. the family has low income and cannot afford any
more children
5. she is not married and does not want to marry the
man
6. she is married and does not want any more children
1.
Big differences between Red and
Blue States on Abortion? 5.3
Big differences between Rs
and Ds on Abortion?
Attitudes towards
Homosexuality
Culture War Predictions
Figure 6.2 p. 114
Figure 6.3
Figure 6.4
Figure 6.5
Figure 6.6
Figure 6.7
Pew Foundation, 2004 Political Landscape
Same Sex Marriage and Voting
Behavior
Policy Toward Same Sex Couples
Legally Marry (25%)
Civil Unions (35%)
No Legal Recognition (37%)
Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
Bush%
Kerry%
22
52
70
77
47
29
Ditch, Not a Chasm
# of Circumstances in which abortion
should be legal
CA 4.3
 Deep South 3.4

Feeling thermometer on Gays (0-100)
Blue state- 51
 Red state 43

Have elctoral cleavages
shifted?
Religion and Voting
Table 7.1, 131
Figure 7.2, p. 132
2nd Midterm Friday, Nov 4
5 short questions (some choice, 4
minutes each, 8%)
1 of three media bias, interest
group/sugar, voting- essay questions
(25% no choice)
1 long Culture War essay question
(35%)
1 page study sheet
10am!
Andrew Gelman, Rich state, poor state, red state, blue state:
What's the matter with Connecticut?
Abramowitz and Saunders- Why
Can’t We All Just Get Along?
Ideological Scale- scale based on responses to 16 issues included in the 2004 National
Election Study survey. The issues ranged from government responsibility for jobs
and living standards to gay marriage, health insurance, abortion, defense
spending, and gun control. Scores on the original scale ranged from -16 for
respondents who gave liberal responses to all 16 issues to +16 for respondents
who gave conservative responses to all 16 issues.
Fiorina’s Explanation
Parties change-- Rise of Purists
Expansion of government
Opening of political processes
Politics is dominated by purists who
care about policy/ideology, not just
winning.
Fiorina in a Nutshell
Small gaps between red and blue state
residents’ political and social views
Convergence/agreement of divisive
social views
Polarizing elites, small %, offer extreme
choices to centralizing voters
Abramowitz and Saunders- Why
Can’t We All Just Get Along?
Ideological Scale- scale based on responses to 16 issues included in the 2004 National
Election Study survey. The issues ranged from government responsibility for jobs
and living standards to gay marriage, health insurance, abortion, defense
spending, and gun control. Scores on the original scale ranged from -16 for
respondents who gave liberal responses to all 16 issues to +16 for respondents
who gave conservative responses to all 16 issues.
Table 1. Policy Liberalism among Active Partisans in 2004
_________________________________________________
________
Issue
Democrats
Republicans
_________________________________________________
________
Abortion
78%
41%
Death Penalty
50%
7%
Diplomacy vs. Force
70%
11%
Environment vs. Jobs
0%
24%
Gay Marriage
67%
15%
Jobs/Living Standards
52%
4%
Health Insurance
66%
15%
Spending/Services
66%
25%
_________________________________________________
________
Source: 2004 National Election Study
Note: Active partisans engaged in 2 or more activities
Abramowitz and Saunders
There are sharp divisions between
supporters of the two major parties
Red and Blue state voters differ
dramatically
Growing divide between religious and
secular voters
Reflect fundamental changes in
American society and are likely to
continue for the foreseeable future
Ditch, Not a Chasm
# of Circumstances in which abortion
should be legal
CA 4.3
 Deep South 3.4

Feeling thermometer on Gays (0-100)
Blue state- 51
 Red state 43

But, Real Secular- Churc
Fiorina’s Explanation
Parties change-- Rise of Purists
Expansion of government
Opening of political processes
Politics is dominated by purists who
care about policy/ideology, not just
winning.
A Causal Critique
Timing
When do Fiorina’s changes take place
 When does religious differential start?

Normative Critique
Is there anything wrong with a “choice
not an echo”?
Is our democracy better or worse
An Anti-Pluralist Critique
Who participates?
What do interest groups have to do to
form?
Hyperpluralism?
Alternative Explanations
Vote Choice in 2000 Presidential Election by Race
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
90
62
54
Bush
42
35
9
Whites
Blacks
Hispanics
Gore
Mommy Party vs. Daddy Party
Gender Gap in Presidential Elections
60
50
54
53
49
42
48
43
40
Bush
30
Gore
20
10
0
Men
Women
Married Women