The Future of TV –
What’s the Role of P2P?
Introduction – Natalie Klym, MIT
Community Networking – Marie José Montpetit, Motorola
Community PVR – Henry Holtzman, MIT
MIT Communications Futures Program
Bi-annual meeting, January 22-23, 2008
San Jose, CA
Several key trends are disrupting the
traditional TV industry
• Enhancement & extension of traditional platforms
• New delivery platforms
• New end-user devices
• New content types
2
A larger number of more complex and
interconnected value chains now
comprise the video landscape
Content
providers
Delivery
platforms
End user
devices
Wireless networks
Online video
producers
Cable TV
networks
Private Internet
Cell
phone
Public Internet
PDA
PC
Cable
Licensed spectrum (OTA)
Postal service (DVD)
DVD player
Film
studios
Linear
VOD
DVR
Big 4
networks
STB
Satellite
TV
3
Services can be broken down into 2
high-level categories
Carrier
services
Wireless networks
Online
services
“Closed”
Private Internet
“Open”
Acquired content
(short tail)
Guaranteed
connection
To the TV
(lean back)
(except wireless)
Public Internet
Satellite TV
Linear
Cable TV
VOD
“Any” content
(long-short tail)
“Best-effort”
connection
To the PC
(lean forward)
(some bridges to TV)
Licensed spectrum (OTA)
4
Services both complement and
compete with one another
• For many users, online video complements carrier
services
• But for certain users, it is becoming a substitute
• For carriers who also function as ISPs, substitution
scenario is known as the “over the top” threat
5
Live TV still dominates… how and
when will this change?
Most people in the U.S. still watch traditional TV
Percent of US TV Households
2007
112.3M Total
OTA
15%
Satellite
27%
Cable
58%
(56% digital)
Worldwide IPTV subscribers
2007
• 8.3M Total
• Europe 60%
• Asia
26%
• USA
5%
Satellite
Highest
growth rate is in
27%
Europe
US mobile TV subscribers 2007
3.7% of mobile subscribers watched video on their mobile phones =
8M mobile TV viewers (36% carriers’ content, 64% sent by peers)
US Broadband subscribers in
2007
• 60M+ broadband subscribers
− 32.6M cable
− 27.5M DSL
• 66% of home BB users
consume online video (vs
31% of dial-up users)
• (16% is traditional TV content,
25% is YouTube)
−
−
−
−
76% of 18-29 year olds
57% of 30-49 year olds
46% of 50-64 year olds
39% of 65 + year olds
6
As video services evolve, the TV
experience is being redefined
• User behaviors are redefining the video value
proposition
• It’s what you can do with content once you get it
that’s important
– Time shifting
– Screen shifting
– Place shifting
– Sharing/redistributing
– Enter social networking
7
How does P2P enable social
networking in the TV experience?
Community Networking: Getting P2P out of Prison
Marie José Montpetit
Distinguished Member of the
Technical Staff
Motorola
Community PVR
Henry Holtzman
Research Scientist
MIT Media Lab
8