Getting Published
CAS Annual Meeting (C12)
November 15, 2006
Moderator:
Panelists:
Joanne Spalla, CAS VP Marketing & Communications
Gary Josephson, Chair, Publications Management Board
Roger Hayne, CAS VP Research
Gary Venter, Associate Editor, Variance Journal
1
Outline
Introduction
TF on Publications
Overview of CAS Publications
Journal Editorial Process
Writing the Paper
Questions
Spalla
Spalla
Josephson
Venter
Hayne
2
CAS Centennial Goal
The CAS will be globally recognized as the
preeminent resource in educating casualty
actuaries and conducting research in casualty
actuarial science. CAS members will be
recognized as the leading experts in the
evaluation of hazard risk and the
integration of hazard risk with strategic,
financial and operational risk.
3
Task Force on Publications
Recommendations
1.
2.
3.
4.
Remove papers from PCAS. Keep CAS-specific
content and add Yearbook content.
Create a new journal where refereed papers will
be published.
Create a yearly Membership Directory as a
separate publication available on request.
Encourage non-CAS members to publish in the
new journal; actively solicit articles from around
the world.
4
Variance
Mission Statement
Variance is a peer-reviewed journal published by the
CAS to disseminate work of interest to casualty
actuaries worldwide. The journal's focus is original
practical and theoretical research in casualty
actuarial science. Significant survey or similar
articles are also considered for publication.
Membership in the Casualty Actuarial Society is not
a prerequisite for submitting papers to the journal
and submission by non-CAS members is
encouraged.
5
CAS Publications
Gary Josephson
Chair, CAS Publications Management Board
6
CAS PUBLICATIONS
CURRENT
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PROCEEDINGS
FORUM
NEWSLETTERS
YEARBOOK
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PUBLICATIONS
MANAGEMENT BOARD

Distinguish among types of papers
Refereed
 Reviewed
 Other
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Use CAS Website to showcase publications
Make it easier for authors to submit
Establish publication policies
8
CAS PUBLICATIONS
2007 and beyond
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VARIANCE
ON LINE FORUM
MONOGRAPHS
NEWSLETTERS
YEARBOOK/PROCEEDINGS
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CAS PUBLICATIONS
2007 and beyond

ON-LINE FORUM

Working Papers
Way to develop ideas
 Minimal review
 (Almost) immediate posting
 Comments welcomed/encouraged
 “Grow up” to be Variance papers

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CAS PUBLICATIONS
2007 and beyond

ON-LINE FORUM

Call Papers/ Discussion Papers
Template for paper structure
 No change in process
 Oversight by CAS committees

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CAS PUBLICATIONS
2007 and beyond

ON-LINE FORUM

Research Working Parties
Publish when completed
 Oversight by Research Committees
 Extract ideas for Variance papers

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CAS PUBLICATIONS
2007 and beyond

CAS MONOGRAPH SERIES
Top quality papers – but not fitting Variance criteria
 Research Working Party Reports
 Study Notes
 Research Committee Compilations
 Other

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CAS PUBLICATIONS
2007 and beyond

NEWSLETTERS AND YEARBOOK

Newsletters – no change
Actuarial Review
 Future Fellows
 Yearbook

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Variance:
Advancing the Science of Risk
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Variance Editorial Board
Curtis Gary Dean
Editor in Chief
Dale Edlefson
Associate Editor—Copy Editing
Rich Fein
Associate Editor—Copy Editing
Gary Venter
Associate Editor—Development
16
What is Applied
Research?
Gary G. Venter, FCAS
Associate Editor, CAS Journal Editorial Board
17
Applied vs. Theoretical
Research

Applied
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Tries to solve a real-world problem someone is
actually having
Theoretical

Tries to generalize a theorem
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Theoretical Research
Approach

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Take a theorem of interest
Weaken one of the assumptions
Try to figure out how that weakens the result
19
Practical Research Approach

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Try to apply an algorithm to a problem you have
If it doesn’t seem to work:
Look at the assumptions of the algorithm
 Try to figure out which ones don’t hold for your
application
 Try to develop adjustments that will make sense in
your case

20
Communication is Key


Academic research can produce new methods
that will show the way to better applications
This can come from any of many different
disciplines
21
Moral

Keep your eye on the ball, your shoulder to the
wheel, your nose to the grindstone and your ear
on the track.

Then see if you can get any work done in that position
22
Challenges for CAS
Global preeminent resource in casualty
actuarial science
Integration of hazard risk with strategic,
financial and operational risk
23
Expanding Topics

Advanced credibility
Hachemeister 1975 – Regression credibility
 Greg Taylor – Credibility in function spaces
 Applicable in classification ratemaking
 Little PCAS attention to date


Predictive modeling
Big in classification ratemaking
 CAS starting to pay attention

24
More …

Stochastic Reserving
Papers starting to appear
 Future of loss reserving is stochastic

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Catastrophe losses
Big part of insurance
 Actuaries do not understand models very well
 Maybe survey papers would be helpful
 Basis risk, stratified sampling, … possible issues

25
Financial Modeling
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Part of ERM we are less up on
Asset modeling
Foreign exchange modeling
Capital needs and value of capital
Pricing of risk – incomplete market martingales
Value of risk transfer
Risk-adjusted profitability by line
26
Challenges for Editors

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Getting papers submitted on these topics
Finding reviewers who can evaluate them
Overcoming bias towards status-quo
New paper – “Method A Sucks”
 Proof – Hemi-semi-demi groups on manifolds
 Send to reviewer who is expert on method A

Reviewer makes 60% of revenue on method A
 Doesn’t know anything about hemi-demi-semi groups
 Rejects paper


It happens – but we need to try to minimize
27
So You Wanna Be A
Writer?
Roger M. Hayne, FCAS, MAAA
CAS VP - Research
28
What Do You Need?

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One or more ideas
The ability to string two or more words together
in a coherent sentence
Persistency
Knowledge of the guidelines for submission to
your target publication
Thick Skin
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Stringing Words Together
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Abstract summarizing the results
Brief summary of research on the topic - what
has been done so far and how the new paper
improves upon that
Outline of the remainder of the paper
Development of the results (with technical
details in an appendices)
Summary of what has been done
References and any appendices.
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The Idea

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Does not have to be “earth shattering”
Think concise – a long treatise will probably not
make it into Variance
The idea should be practically sound
A strong foundation in theory is always helpful
but not necessary for Variance
For Variance practical is the key
31
The Process
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Write it down
Read it over
Read it again
Get someone else to read it
Get someone else to read it again
You get the picture – give the editors a break,
get them something that is reasonably polished
It is always a good idea
 It lessens the chance for outright rejection
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32
The Process – Part Deux
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Format and clean up the paper
Pay careful attention to the guidelines for
publication in your target publication
Send the “completed” manuscript to the
appropriate person (see guides for submission)
Wait
33
Journal Timeline
Paper Submitted
Initial Screening
1-2 weeks
Peer Review Process
1st review: 6-10 weeks
(subsequent reviews 3-6 weeks each)
Decision on Paper
(Accepted/Rejected)
Author Revision & Resubmission
2 to 6+ weeks
Manuscript Copy Editing
5-6 weeks
Typesetting
3-4 weeks
Review of First Galley
3-5 weeks
(subsequent reviews 2-3 weeks each)
Publication in Journal
34
The Process – Part Drei


Wait patiently (editors are busy actuaries too)
Generally the reply will fall into one of five
categories:
Accept as is (very rare)
 Accept with suggestions for improvement
 Accept conditionally
 Request resubmission
 Reject

35
Thick Skin
Suggestions by editors given in the spirit of
a high quality final paper
 Most are editorial (commas, spelling,
grammar, etc.)
 Sometimes reviewer(s) critical of theory or
concept presented
 You decide whether and what to change

36
The Response




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Good idea to attempt to at least respond to each
suggestion
“Thought about it and decided not to change” is an
appropriate response
Look at this as another opportunity to improve your
paper
Sometimes criticisms lead to new paths for exploration
(case in point my first PCAS paper)
Frank and open discussion can often resolve issues and
allow publication (case in point my Service Contract
paper)
37
Then Wait


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Wait some more
Remember – editors are people too, and busy
people at that!!
You may get another round of suggestions,
particularly if you significantly revamp the paper
You may get notification that the paper has been
accepted – congratulations
You will then get a proof of the paper – time to
read it again, you know the drill
38
In Print


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Paper finally appears
If a Variance paper you get to present it at a CAS
meeting
Put together your presentation
Get ready for the encore
The sequel
 Discussions
 Fame
 Fortune??????

39
Submission Information
current
http://www.casact.org/pubs/
(coming soon)
www.VarianceJournal.org
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Questions
41