Applications of early warning in the U.S.
and what is needed to deliver them
Richard Allen
Earthquake early warning summit
April 5, 2011, UC Berkeley
Warning Timeline
Realtime animation
for a magnitude 8 on
the San Andreas fault
Southern California:
Rotate map 180° for a
rupture up the San
Andreas towards Los
Angeles
Washington and
Oregon:
Magnitude 9 rupture of
the subduction zone
could have a greater
warning time
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf9DeYBlwMI
Download mp4: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/SanAndreasFromNorth_v2_bb.mp4
Japan
Communicating the warning
TV and radio announcements
• 124 of 127 TV stations (98%)
• 41 AM, 35 FM radio (75%)
J-Alert messages
• 226 municipalities receive the warnings
• 102 announce them with public address
systems
Cell phones
• 3 companies (Docomo, AU, Softbank)
• 52 million can receive them (47%)
Dedicated providers serve
• power plants
• factories
• schools
• hospitals
• shopping malls
earthquake
location and
hazard
estimated
shaking in your
area
Types of application
Using seconds to tens of seconds warning for…
1. Personal safety
– moving to a safe zone
2. Automated control
– slowing/stopping/isolating sensitive systems
3. Situation awareness
– initiating response before shaking
1. Personal safety
Being in an earthquake…
March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=871E8_DJ-rw
Download mp4: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/CouldHaveUsedWarningToTakeCover-01.mp4
1. Personal safety
Schools in Japan
HomeSeismometer
Drill: British School in Tokyo
courtesy Peggy Hellweg
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miVBBF_Xows
Download mp4: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/EEW_Exercise_Japan.mp4
1. Personal safety
In a university lecture hall in Sendai:
Just after 2:46 p.m. on Friday, March 11, an
earthquake warning buzzed on the cell phone
belonging to Professor Kensuke Watanabe. He
knew it was time for everyone in his class to
bolt under their desks. The university building
in Sendai, the biggest city hit by the quake and
subsequent tsunami, began to shake violently.
But Watanabe and his students, with that small
warning, were able to use the sturdy desks as
protection against falling objects. Shortly after,
they fled the building for open ground. None in
the group was hurt by Japan's worst
earthquake on record. "It was terrifying,"
says Watanabe, "but the mobile warning
really helped."
Extract from "Japan's Earthquake Warning System Explained”
TIME, March 18, 2011.
Surviving Sendai, a first person account:
"Our meeting was being held on the second floor
of an office building near Sendai Station.
Suddenly, during our discussions, our mobile
phones began to ring with the distinctive
earthquake alarm. ... This gave us a window of a
few seconds to prepare before the shaking began.
My business partner and I took shelter on the floor
beneath a steel door frame and waited for the
shaking to begin. Although the building we were in
was fairly new, the shaking was strong enough
that we were not able to stand. Dust and debris
from the ceiling began to fall like snow and large
cracks appeared in the walls."
– Basil Tonks, Simcoe, March 15, 2011.
1. Personal safety
Sendai schools and universities
I've confirmed that EEW worked well Nagamachi Elementary
School in Sendai City: ‘The earthquake warning was
announced about 10 sec before shaking and all pupils
sank under their desks. Gradually shaking became
larger. One minute later a blackout occurred and after
another two minutes severe shaking continued'.
The EEW at Shiroishi Junior High School, Shiroishi City was
issued and staff and pupils were evacuated.
Sendai-West High School's EEW using Miyagi-SWAN (School
WAN) also worked. Teachers were in a meeting and sank
under desks following the EEW. Athletics club students in the
gymnasium were also evacuated.
Tohoku University's EEW using the university LAN worked and
issued the EEW to the broadcast systems at 5 campuses.
– report from Masato Motosaka
1. Personal safety
Identifying a safe zone where you live and work
• Being mentally prepared for the shaking
• Protection from falling bookshelves, lighting etc
• Home or office: Under a sturdy table
• Outside: away from masonry and falling hazards
• Industrial plants, construction sites: away from
machinery and chemicals
Types of application
Using seconds to tens of seconds warning for…
1. Personal safety
– moving to a safe zone
2. Automated control
– slowing/stopping/isolating sensitive systems
3. Situation awareness
– initiating response before shaking
2. Automated control
chip manufacturer
2003: Two damaging earthquakes
• $15 million in losses
• fire, equipment damage
• 17 and 13 days loss of productivity
Spent $600K on early warning and
shear walls in basement
• Sensitive equipment set down on floor to
reduce shaking and damage
Two similar earthquakes
• $200K in losses
• 4.5 and 3.5 days
loss of productivity
Miyagi, Japan
2. Automated control
Bullet trains
At the time of the M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake…
• 24 trains were running in the Tohoku Shinkansen system
• 9 seismic sensors along the coast, and 44 sensors along the train track
• detected the initial tremor; automatic shutdown of power; activation of the
emergency brakes
• all trains stopped without derailment
• they did not sustain any damage on bridges and tunnels, and could restore
the operation very quickly
- from Asahi
2. Automated control
Bringing systems into a safe mode
• Slowing and stopping trains
• Telling airplanes to “go-around”
• Isolating hazardous chemicals and machinery
• Putting sensitive equipment into a stable state
• Stopping elevators and opening doors at next floor
• Smart buildings: opening doors/windows, turning off gas
Types of application
Using seconds to tens of seconds warning for…
1. Personal safety
– moving to a safe zone
2. Automated control
– slowing/stopping/isolating sensitive systems
3. Situation awareness
– initiating response before shaking
3. Situation awareness
Today: ShakeMap
in 5-10 minutes
Current realtime earthquake information
• location
• magnitude
• ground shaking distribution
Soon?: AlertMap
seconds to tens of seconds
before shaking
3. Situation awareness
Understanding why systems are failing
• Re-routing power or communications
• Preventing cascading failures
• Initiating emergency response
 Information available before
communications are lost
Path to delivery of early warning in the U.S.
1. Long-term goal:
Open public system in California, Oregon
and Washington similar to Japan
Requires
• Additional stations (white)
• Upgrades to existing stations
• Continuous realtime GPS
• Robust telemetry
• Methodology development
• 24/7 operations
• Warning delivery systems
• Public education campaign
Cost of 5-year
implementation plan
$80M California
$65M Washington
and Oregon
Path to delivery of early warning in the U.S.
2. Immediate steps
Identification of warning applications in the U.S.
• industry-by-industry assessment of uses for early warning
• cost benefit analyses in the context of shaking risk
Work with potential users to start delivery of test alerts
• identify necessary information and delivery mechanisms
• complete demonstration projects and begin delivery testing
Make existing test software in CA robust
• move the current “research” system to a “production” system
• develop additional warning applications (software)
Targeted improvements to geophysical networks
• filling crucial gaps in the network coverage
Develop additional and improved hazard estimation methodologies
• application of realtime GPS methodologies
• use of “community networks” e.g. sensors embedded in consumer electronics
• realtime mapping of finite fault ruptures
Others?
“Homework”
1. Is there additional information that you need to evaluate the utility of
early warning for your company?
2. Has your organization been able to identify specific uses of
earthquake warnings? If so, how would you use 5 seconds, 20 seconds,
and 1 minute of warning?
3. Do you have an assessment of the costs and benefits of implementing
warning actions within your organization?
4. Do you have suggestions for next steps to move the development of
early warning forward?
5. Are there specific steps that your company would be willing to
participate in?
Please email your responses to Richard Allen (rallen@berkeley.edu).