DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION
AUBURN UNIVERSITY
STRATEGIC PLANNING
PROFILE OF THE ENVIRONMENT
July 2006
Messina & Graham
Contents
I.
Overview of Strategy-Development Process
II. Profile of the Environment
• Pervasive Trends
• Forces Affecting Higher Education
III. Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
IV. Near-Term Steps
Appendices
• Discussion Notes for Section II – Profile of the Environment
• Information Sources
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I. Overview of Strategy-Development Process
1.
SITUATION
ASSESSMENT
• Profiling the
environment
• Profiling Auburn
- Main campus
- AUM
2.
OPTION
GENERATION
• Candidate
strategic
objectives
and directions
• Rationale for
each option
3.
OPTION
EVALUATION
• Detailed
assessment
of each option
• Comparison of
options
• Identifying
strategic
challenges and
opportunities
4.
STRATEGY
SELECTION
• Rationale
• Full description,
including goals
and action
initiatives
5.
EXECUTION
• Implementation
plan, responsibility
assignments
• Progress measures,
review milestones
• Adjustments and
adaptation
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Step 1: Situation Assessment
1.
SITUATION
ASSESSMENT
2.
OPTION
GENERATION
3.
OPTION
EVALUATION
PROFILING
THE
ENVIRONMENT
• Pervasive Trends
• Forces Affecting
Higher Education
Implications for
AU Strategy
4.
STRATEGY
SELECTION
5.
EXECUTION
PROFILING
AUBURN
• Main campus
• AUM
• Student Enrollment
• Research
• Public Funding
• Private Giving
Strategic
Challenges
and
Opportunities
Assessment of
Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities, Threats
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II. Profile of the Environment
FORCES AFFECTING
HIGHER EDUCATION
PERVASIVE TRENDS
• Globalization
• Enrollment Growth
• Information Revolution
• Affordability Challenge
• Natural-Resource Demands
and Environmental Strain
• Demands for Quality
Improvement
• Aging Populations and
Increasing Minorities
• Efficiency Imperative
• Diverse Perspectives on the
University in the TwentyFirst Century
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Pervasive Trends
GLOBALIZATION
INFORMATION
REVOLUTION
NATURAL
RESOURCES
DEMOGRAPHICS
• Transforming worldwide commerce and
employment
• Generating global competition for knowledge work
• Information technology, telecommunications,
connectivity
• Dramatic and ubiquitous impacts
• Demand increasing because of global economic
and population growth
• Environment under strain
• Aging populations in developed countries
• Rapid rise in U.S. minorities, especially
Hispanics
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Globalization Transforming Commerce and Employment
Example – Motor Vehicle Production in Alabama and Georgia
PLANT CLOSINGS
1990
2008
2008
GM
GM
Ford
Lakewood, GA
(opened 1927)
Doraville, GA
(opened 1946)
Hapeville, GA
(opened 1947)
PLANT OPENINGS
1997
Mercedes
Tuscaloosa
2001
Honda
Lincoln
2002
Hyundai
Montgomery
2003
Toyota
Huntsville
2009?
Kia
West Point, GA
By 2007, Alabama will have 19,000 motor vehicle manufacturing jobs,
more than triple the 2003 level
Source: Alabama Economic Outlook, 2006; The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
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Global Competition for Knowledge Work
“Our college graduates face increasing competition from
ambitious, intelligent young people overseas, eager to
claim whatever skilled work can be digitized and outsourced
to distant places around the globe”
- Harvard University’s Derek Bok
“[Overseas] tutors, who communicate with students over
the Internet, are inexpensive and available around the clock,
making education the newest industry to be outsourced to
other countries”
- The Washington Post, May 15, 2006
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Global Competition for Knowledge Work
Example – Aerospace
ACTIVITIES PERFORMED OFFSHORE FOR U.S. COMPANIES
• Aircraft and spacecraft research and development, engineering,
manufacturing, testing, technical support
• Software development and testing
• Airliner maintenance, modification, repair, spare parts
• Pilot training, flight simulation
• Airline reservations and customer service
Source: Boeing, IBM, Aviation Week
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Natural Sciences and Engineering Graduates
Degrees Per 100 24-Year-Olds, 1975 and 2000
1975
2000
Japan
4.5
4.0
United States
3.6
Germany
3.5
Canada
United Kingdom
Taiwan
3.0
Finland
13.2
France
11.1
Taiwan*
11.0
South Korea
10.8
United Kingdom*
10.6
Sweden
9.5
2.5
United States
(Rank = 15)
5.8
* 2001 data
Source: National Science Foundation, 2004
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Science and Engineering Graduates
In Thousands, Year 2000
1,200
850
500
Asia
Europe
United States
Source: National Science Foundation, 2004
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Science and Engineering Articles
U.S. Share of World Total, In Percent, 1988 - 2001
38
35
31
1988
1994
2001
Source: National Science Foundation, 2004
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Information Revolution
Worldwide Numbers of Cell Phone and Internet Users, 2000 and 2005
INTERNET ACCESS
CELL PHONES
2.1 billion
1 billion
+ 189%
+ 183%
727 million
353 million
250 million
Broadband access
2000
2005
2000
32 percent of
world population
2005
16 percent of
world population
Source: International Telecommunications Union; InternetWorldStats.com;
OECD; Pew Internet and American Life Project
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Impact of the Information Revolution on Universities
INFORMATION
REVOLUTION
• Digital information
processing (computers,
digital cameras, etc.)
• Rapid information
transfer (Internet,
broadband telecommunications,
wireless)
TEACHING AND
LEARNING
RESEARCH
EXTENSION
COMMUNITIES
• Information management
tools (software, web
search, platforms)
ADMINISTRATION
AND OPERATIONS
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• Online and video courses
• Distance tutors, electronic slates
• Simulations
• Distractions
• Multi-site, cross-disciplinary
collaborations via video interactions
• Increased outreach, information
availability, access
• Expert consultations
• Creation of virtual communities based on
common interests
• Weblogs
• Sophisticated planning and resourcemanagement tools
• Detailed information-sharing among
institutions
• Online and automated processes,
surveys
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Distance Learning
“Online enrollment is skyrocketing . . . . By early 2008, one out of
10 college students [is expected to be] enrolled in an online
degree program”
- The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2006
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Distance Learning
Source: The Washington Post, May 16, 2006
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World Oil Consumption
Millions of Barrels per Day
111
95
77
63
67
52
47
21
17
1960
1970
1980
1990
28
2000
41
2010
52
Emerging
Economies
2020
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Environmental Strain
Source: The Washington Post, May 31, 2006
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Aging of U.S. Population
Dependency Ratio: Population Over Age 65
as a Percentage of Population Age 20 - 64
36
28
21
22
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Increasing Financial Burden
Source: USA Today, May 25, 2006
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Growth in Hispanic Population
Hispanics as a Percentage of Total U.S. Population
20
18
16
14
2005
Percent White
67
2010
2020
65
61
2030
58
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Implications of Pervasive Trends for Universities
GLOBALIZATION
INFORMATION
REVOLUTION
NATURAL
RESOURCES
DEMOGRAPHICS
• Ensuring competitiveness of graduates
• Increasing students’ international awareness
• Multiple challenges and opportunities in
teaching and learning, research, extension,
and administration and operations
• Teaching and learning, research, extension and
operations opportunities
• Examples: alternative energy sources,
conservation, agricultural technologies
• Enriching lifelong learning
• Embracing greater diversity
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Profiling the Environment
FORCES AFFECTING
HIGHER EDUCATION
PERVASIVE TRENDS
• Globalization
• Enrollment Growth
• Information Revolution
• Affordability Challenge
• Natural-Resource Demands
and Environmental Strain
• Demands for Quality
Improvement
• Aging Populations and
Increasing Minorities
• Efficiency Imperative
• Diverse Perspectives on the
University in the TwentyFirst Century
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U.S. College Enrollment
Millions, 1990 - 2014
17
14
14
1990
1995
19
20
15
2000
2005
2010
+12%
from 2005
to 2014,
with regional
differences
2014
Projected
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2004
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Tuition and Median Family Income
Inflation-Adjusted, 1980 – 2000, 1980 = 100
TUITION
225
200
175
150
FAMILY INCOME
125
100
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
100
130
157
203
253
FAMILY INCOME 100
102
109
110
122
TUITION
Source: Vedder, Going Broke By Degree, Table 1-2
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Net Cost of Attending Public Four-Year College
Percent of Family Income, Year 2003 - 04
47
26
18
11
Lowest
($19,100)
Second
($46,100)
Third
($75,000)
Highest
($136,000)
Family Income Quartile
Source: The College Board
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Demands for Quality Improvement
Representative Critiques of Undergraduate Education
• No universally accepted objectives and standards defining an undergraduate degree
• Few measures of learning outcomes or teaching effectiveness
• Innovation and experimentation in teaching approaches not broadly practiced or even
highly regarded
• Little drive for performance improvement and organizational learning across the
enterprise
• Poor understanding and sharing of best practices among institutions
“The moment has surely come for America’s colleges to take a more candid look
at their weaknesses and think more boldly about setting higher
educational standards for themselves”
- Harvard University’s Derek Bok
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Efficiency Imperative
Example – University of Maryland System
ASSESSMENT
RESPONSE
“We currently operate under a
model in which educational
expenditures at colleges and
universities across the country
are rising by about 4.5 percent
to 5 percent annually. In a
nation with an entrenched 3
percent inflation rate, this is
not sustainable over the long
term, no matter what our
source of revenue.”
EFFECTIVENESS AND
EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE
• “Systematic examination and
reengineering of all our
academic and administrative
processes”
• “Increased faculty classroom
responsibilities, expanded
online educational opportunities, consolidated backoffice operations . . .”
- William Kirwan, Chancellor
• “$40 million in cost savings
realized so far”
Source: The Presidency, Winter 2006
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Diverse Perspectives
On the University in the Twenty-First Century
Illustrative Contrasts
TRADITIONAL
ALTERNATIVE
• Liberal (broad) education
• Skills-building for
employment
• Residential campus
• Online, distance learning
TEACHING
• Tried-and-true teaching
approaches
• Individual course
development and delivery
• Interactive learning,
innovation in teaching
approaches
• Standardized content
LEADERSHIP
• Community of scholars
with guidance by an
academic leader
• Business enterprise led
by a CEO
PURPOSE OF
UNDERGRADUATE
EDUCATION
MODEL
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Diverse Perspectives on the University
Purposes of Undergraduate Education
PURPOSES
(BOK)
KEY ATTRIBUTES
(U.S. COMPANIES)
GOALS
(NATIONAL POLL)
• Ability to communicate
• Critical thinking
• Moral reasoning
• Preparing citizens
• Living with diversity
• Living in a more
global society
• Breadth of interests
• Preparing for work
• Leadership
• Teamwork
• Problem-solving
• Time management
• Self-management
• Analytical thinking
• Global consciousness
• Basic communications
skills
• Sense of maturity,
ability to manage on
one’s own
• Ability to get along with
people different from
one’s self
• Problem-solving and
thinking ability
• High-technology skills
• Specific expertise in
chosen career
• Top-notch writing and
speaking ability
• Responsibilities of
citizenship
Source: Bok, NASULGC
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Implications of Higher-Education
Trends for Universities
ENROLLMENT
GROWTH
AFFORDABILITY
CHALLENGE
QUALITY IMPROVEMENT
EFFICIENCY
IMPERATIVE
21ST
CENTURY
UNIVERSITY
• Focusing on enrollment objectives
• Ensuring diverse access
• Innovating and experimenting with new curricula
and teaching approaches
• Measuring performance in learning and teaching
• Implementing proven business practices to
reduce cost growth
• Re-examining vision and mission
• Redesigning business model to adapt to
dramatic change
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Profiling the Environment
FORCES AFFECTING
HIGHER EDUCATION
PERVASIVE TRENDS
• Globalization
• Enrollment Growth
• Information Revolution
• Affordability Challenge
• Natural-Resource Demands
and Environmental Strain
• Demands for Quality
Improvement
• Aging Populations and
Increasing Minorities
• Efficiency Imperative
• Diverse Perspectives on the
University in the TwentyFirst Century
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III. Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
Pervasive Trends
TREND / IMPLICATIONS
GLOBALIZATION
POSSIBLE AUBURN RESPONSE (ILLUSTRATIVE)
• Raise performance expectations for students and
measure results
• Competitiveness of
graduates
• Develop new approaches to undergraduate education
• Students’ international
awareness
• Increase international course and language skills
offerings and requirements
INFORMATION
REVOLUTION
• Challenges and
opportunities across
the enterprise
• Ensure implementation of technologies that enable
cost and quality improvements
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Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
Pervasive Trends
TREND / IMPLICATIONS
NATURAL
RESOURCES
• Opportunities across
the enterprise
DEMOGRAPHICS
• Enriching lifelong
learning
• Embracing greater
diversity
POSSIBLE AUBURN RESPONSE (ILLUSTRATIVE)
• Advance teaching and research in alternative energy
sources, conservation, agricultural technologies
• Promote energy-efficient building design and operations
• Explore distance learning for specific markets
(e.g., alumni, seniors)
• Prepare for challenges resulting from growth in Hispanic
students
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Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
Forces Affecting Higher Education
TREND / IMPLICATIONS
ENROLLMENT
GROWTH
• Focusing on enrollment
objectives
POSSIBLE AUBURN RESPONSE (ILLUSTRATIVE)
• Strengthen image of value to compensate for possible
reduction in applicant pool
AFFORDABILITY
CHALLENGE
• Constrain expense growth through improving efficiency
and applying technology
• Ensuring diverse
access
• Increase resources available for need-based aid
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Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
Forces Affecting Higher Education
TREND / IMPLICATIONS
POSSIBLE AUBURN RESPONSE (ILLUSTRATIVE)
QUALITY
IMPROVEMENT
• Raise performance expectations for students
• Developing innovative
teaching and learning
approaches
• Innovate and experiment with new teaching approaches,
including beyond the classroom
• Measuring performance
in learning and
teaching
• Focus on learning objectives and measure results
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Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
Forces Affecting Higher Education
TREND / IMPLICATIONS
POSSIBLE AUBURN RESPONSE (ILLUSTRATIVE)
EFFICIENCY
IMPERATIVE
• Perform a comprehensive review of cost elements and
processes
• Implementing proven
business practices to
reduce cost growth
• Implement focused technology solutions that reduce costs
• Examine approaches to help enable the faculty to become
more productive in their teaching and research activities
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Implications of Environmental Trends for Auburn
Forces Affecting Higher Education
TREND / IMPLICATIONS
21ST CENTURY
UNIVERSITY
• Re-examining vision and
mission
• Redesigning business
model to adapt to
dramatic change
POSSIBLE AUBURN RESPONSE (ILLUSTRATIVE)
• As a key building block for creating a twenty-first
century vision for Auburn, perform an assessment of
the University’s strengths and weaknesses, and profile
the opportunities and threats it faces (“SWOT”
assessment)
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IV. Near-Term Steps
• Individual follow-up discussions with Board members
• Interactions with deans and faculty
• Profiles of Auburn Main Campus and AUM
• Assessments of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats
(“SWOT” assessments)
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Step 1: Situation Assessment
1.
SITUATION
ASSESSMENT
2.
OPTION
GENERATION
3.
OPTION
EVALUATION
PROFILING
THE
ENVIRONMENT
• Pervasive Trends
• Forces Affecting
Higher Education
Implications for
AU Strategy
4.
STRATEGY
SELECTION
5.
EXECUTION
PROFILING
AUBURN
• Main campus
• AUM
• Student Enrollment
• Research
• Public Funding
• Private Giving
Strategic
Challenges
and
Opportunities
Assessment of
Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities, Threats
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Key Elements of a Strategy
• Special attributes and their sources
DISTINCTIVENESS
• Differentiation that confers relative advantage
• Consistent with vision and mission
• Choices about allocating scarce resources
RESOURCE
COMMITMENTS
• Fact-based decision-making
• Coherent set of initiatives
• Implementation plans, responsibility assignments
EXECUTION
• Progress measures, review milestones
• Adjustments and adaptation
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