FY13 Budget and Caseload
Update
Fiscal Committee
October 1, 2012
FY13 Caseload Overview



2
Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is
projecting a surplus of $10.7M which is approximately $3.4M less than
last month’s projected surplus of $14.1M. The reduction in surplus is
driven by late billing. Late Billing for July 2012 vouchers is $270K
which has an annualized impact of $3.2M. After two months of actual
reports we have adjusted the forecast. The forecast includes the
Infant/Toddler Rate increase for providers who are self-assessed at
QRIS level 2 or above(approximately 37%). The financial impact is
projected to be $1.1M. The forecast includes growth for the number of
providers reaching QRIS Level 2 or above in subsequent months. In
June and July 126 children enrolled in Summer-Only Programs. The
forecast includes Summer-Only care for 779 children for June 2012.
After reducing the current surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit
($3.5M), the surplus is approximately $7.2M.
DTA-Related Caseload: Forecasted deficit changed from $3.1M to
$3.5M; the bulk of the increase is due to August actual expenditures
billed at $300k higher than forecasted. The variance is driven by the
fact that actual average cost per child to date is greater than 3 year
average used for cost projection. Caseload growth aligns with the 3
year historical trend used in the forecast.
Supportive: The projected deficit of $475K last month decreased to a
deficit of $54k. Contract slots continue to remain open impacting the
change in forecast. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to
fill open slots.
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
As of August 2012
FY2013
Caseload
Spending August 2012
Income Eligible
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
DTA
Voucher
Supportive
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
$
$
$
$
134,436,467
88,414,709
9,019,276
231,870,452
$
$
$
$
125,502,294
86,603,751
9,019,276
221,125,321
$
$
$
$
8,934,173
1,810,958
10,745,131
$
125,495,740
$
129,038,794
$
(3,543,054)
$
76,637,299
$
148,086
$
600,000
$
77,385,385
$ 427,549,500
$
$
$
$
$
(6,424)
(48,086)
(54,510)
7,147,567
$
76,630,875
$
100,000
$
600,000
$
77,330,875
Total $ 434,697,067
3
Variance
Forecast vs.
Budget
FY 2012 Income Eligible
(3000-4060)
Income Eligible FY13 Forecast for August 2012
M o nt h
Jun-12
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
32,215
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
32,215
N/A
Jul-12
31,364
31,245
(119)
$
18,607,517
$
18,154,279
$
Aug-12
31,325
30,905
(420)
$
18,902,260
$
18,474,197
$
881,302
Se p-12
30,933
$
17,350,379
$
16,813,750
$
1,417,931
Oct-12
30,457
$
17,632,030
$
18,928,435
$
121,526
Nov-12
30,398
$
17,302,718
$
18,038,163
$
(613,919)
De c-12
30,237
$
16,902,323
$
17,066,624
$
(778,221)
Jan-13
29,950
$
17,423,935
$
18,516,695
$
(1,870,981)
453,239
Fe b-13
30,048
$
16,954,176
$
16,959,428
$
(1,876,233)
M ar-13
29,955
$
17,050,124
$
16,914,925
$
(1,741,035)
Apr-13
29,788
$
17,311,495
$
17,581,283
$
(2,010,822)
M ay-13
29,256
$
17,370,697
$
18,044,056
$
(2,684,182)
Jun-13
29,924
$
17,487,919
$
16,614,209
$
(1,810,472)
GRANTS
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
TOTAL
$
219,314,849
$
221,125,321
FY13 Appropriation
231,870,452
231,870,452
Surplus /De ficie ncy
12,555,603
10,745,131
- B lue : FY13 A c t ua l/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s
**2013 A ctuals/Fo recast include Infant/To ddler Increase P ro jectio n
- A ctual do llars represent expenditures billed and paid as o f the date the fo recast was prepared and may include late
billing.
- A dditio nal savings may be realised by parent fees.
* Spending P lan P ro jectio n is maximum o bligatio n, flex , teen and ho meless co ntracts.
* A ctual caselo ad co unt is the co unt o f services rendered fo r the repo rting mo nth. P lease no te a child co uld receive
multiple services.
* Caselo ad changes fo r a prio r repo rting mo nth is driven by late billing.
* B udgeted caselo ad assumes access is clo sed (Vo uchers) and terminatio ns will be co nsistent with histo rical trend.
4
FY 2013 DTA Related
(3000-4050)
DTA FY13 Forecast for August 2012
M o nt h
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
Jun-12
16,920
16,920
N/A
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
( O rigina l S pe nding
P la n)
Jul-12
16,019
16,187
168
$
10,717,525
$
10,910,173
$
(192,648)
Aug-12
16,060
16,246
186
$
11,233,530
$
11,356,890
$
(316,008)
Sep-12
16,419
$
9,986,720
$
10,050,348
$
(379,636)
Oct-12
16,201
$
11,002,439
$
10,929,836
$
(307,033)
Nov-12
16,428
$
10,991,409
$
10,916,494
$
(232,119)
Dec-12
16,358
$
10,447,142
$
10,375,625
$
(160,601)
Jan-13
15,912
$
11,129,920
$
11,114,267
$
(144,948)
Feb-13
16,180
$
10,333,239
$
10,317,377
$
(129,087)
Mar-13
16,462
$
10,513,483
$
10,496,389
$
(111,993)
Apr-13
16,631
$
11,127,055
$
11,108,103
$
(93,041)
May-13
16,498
$
11,539,709
$
11,520,505
$
(73,837)
Jun-13
16,374
$
9,959,024
$
9,942,786
$
(57,599)
$
128,981,195
$
129,038,794
FY13 Appropriation
$
125,038,794
$
125,495,740
Surplus/Deficiency
- Blue: FY13 Actual/Forecast Expenditures
$
TOTAL
(3,942,401) $
(3,543,054)
**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase Projection
- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast w as prepared and may include late billing.
* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple
services.
* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.
5
FY 2012 Supportive
(3000-3050)
SUPPORTIVE SF13 Forecast for August 2012
M o nt h
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
J un- 12
6 ,0 10
6 ,0 10
N/A
( 10 5 )
J ul- 12
6 ,0 9 7
5 ,9 9 2
A ug- 12
6 ,0 7 1
5 ,9 2 8
S e p- 12
O c t - 12
B udge t
S pe nding
P la n
P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
$
6 ,5 8 8 ,6 2 6
$
$
6 ,8 6 5 ,9 4 5
$
6 ,0 8 4
$
5 ,9 8 3 ,8 4 6
$
5 ,8 3 3 ,4 6 3
$
7 0 9 ,15 3
6 ,0 8 4
$
6 ,8 7 6 ,2 4 2
$
6 ,6 5 5 ,7 8 8
$
9 2 9 ,6 0 7
N o v - 12
6 ,15 9
$
6 ,6 3 5 ,3 8 9
$
6 ,4 2 0 ,118
$
1,14 4 ,8 7 8
D e c - 12
6 ,18 8
$
6 ,3 2 1,7 8 0
$
6 ,14 7 ,9 4 3
$
1,3 18 ,7 15
J a n- 13
6 ,17 2
$
6 ,9 11,18 8
$
6 ,7 13 ,7 4 7
$
1,5 16 ,15 6
F e b- 13
6 ,2 16
$
6 ,3 4 1,8 4 8
$
6 ,16 0 ,6 8 0
$
1,6 9 7 ,3 2 4
M a r- 13
6 ,3 13
$
6 ,4 11,6 17
$
6 ,2 2 8 ,0 5 0
$
A pr- 13
6 ,3 14
$
6 ,7 17 ,7 0 4
$
6 ,5 2 5 ,9 4 9
$
M a y- 13
6 ,3 14
$
7 ,0 2 3 ,0 5 4
$
6 ,8 2 2 ,5 8 3
$
2 ,2 7 3 ,117
J un- 13
6 ,5 4 1
$
6 ,5 6 2 ,7 9 2
$
6 ,3 8 1,2 6 2
$
2 ,4 5 4 ,6 4 8
GRA NTS
$
6 0 0 ,0 0 0
$
6 0 0 ,0 0 0
T OT A L
$ 7 9 ,8 4 0 ,0 3 2
$
7 7 ,3 8 5 ,3 8 5
F Y 13 A ppro pria t io n
$ 7 7 ,3 3 0 ,8 7 5
$
7 7 ,3 3 0 ,8 7 5
$
$
S urplus / D e f ic ie nc y
( 2 ,5 0 9 ,15 7 )
6 ,3 8 5 ,8 3 0
Y T D V a ria nc e
( O rigina l
S pe nding P la n)
6 ,5 0 9 ,9 7 1
$
$
2 0 2 ,7 9 6
5 5 8 ,7 7 1
1,8 8 0 ,8 9 1
2 ,0 7 2 ,6 4 6
( 5 4 ,5 10 )
- B lue : FY13 A c t ua l/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s
**2013 A ctuals/Fo recast include Infant/To ddler Increase P ro jectio n
- A ctual do llars represent expenditures billed and paid as o f the date the fo recast was prepared and may include late
billing.
* A ctual caselo ad co unt is the co unt o f services rendered fo r the repo rting mo nth. P lease no te a child co uld receive
multiple services.
* Caselo ad changes fo r a prio r repo rting mo nth is driven by late billing.
6
FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$75,377
$77,304
$75,499
$105,441
$96,282
$104,827
$111,985
$114,818
$111,207
$131,253
$133,959
$129,382
$148,964
$152,546
$147,088
$166,631
$171,230
$164,890
$184,964
$190,217
$182,953
$203,760
$209,305
$201,075
$221,125
$231,870
$219,315
$20,000
$55,697
$57,955
$57,115
$40,000
$38,132
$39,013
$39,013
$60,000
$18,906
$19,359
$19,359
(Amount in Thousands)
$180,000
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$-
Actual/Forecast
FY13 Budget
FY13 Maintenance
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)
Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection) )
7
Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late Billing
August 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,761,627
Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase
FY2013 DTA Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$43,247
$42,940
$41,772
$54,164
$53,932
$52,468
$64,539
$64,379
$62,634
$75,654
$75,509
$73,459
$85,971
$85,842
$83,513
$96,467
$96,355
$93,744
$107,576
$107,482
$104,574
$119,096
$119,022
$115,805
$129,039
$128,981
$125,496
$10,000
$32,317
$31,938
$31,072
$20,000
$22,267
$21,951
$21,354
$30,000
$10,910
$10,718
$10,426
$40,000
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection)
8
Purple: FY13 Spending Plan
FY13 Maintenance
FY13 Budget
FY2013 Supportive Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$100,000
$90,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$12,996
$13,124
$13,555
$18,879
$18,967
$19,588
$25,585
$25,673
$26,515
$32,055
$32,147
$33,200
$38,253
$38,317
$39,572
$45,017
$45,058
$46,533
$51,228
$51,248
$52,925
$57,506
$57,507
$59,386
$64,082
$64,062
$66,154
$70,954
$70,913
$73,227
$77,385
$77,331
$79,840
$10,000
$6,436
$6,428
$6,639
$20,000
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : : FY13 Appropriation
9
Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection)
FY13 Maintenance
FY13 Budget
FY12/13 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
(2,000.0)
Regular
Filled
Regular
Open
Flex Filled
Flex Open
Flex - Over
5%
Flex - Under
5%
9/7/2011
12,279.5
2,210.5
722.0
111.0
(582.0)
693.0
10/3/2011
12,297.0
2,193.0
636.0
197.0
(518.5)
715.5
11/1/2011
12,801.5
1,637.5
640.0
214.0
(495.5)
710.5
11/29/2011
13,029.5
1,429.5
623.5
232.5
(473.0)
705.5
1/3/2012
12,937.5
1,531.5
596.5
264.0
(438.0)
701.5
1/31/2012
13,213.5
1,257.5
585.5
274.5
(437.0)
711.5
3/1/2012
13,271.5
1,194.5
579.5
279.5
(432.0)
711.5
3/30/2012
13,391.0
1,071.0
604.5
254.5
(441.5)
696.0
4/30/2012
13,388.0
1,074.0
640.5
218.5
(451.0)
669.5
5/29/2012
13,266.0
1,197.0
596.5
278.5
(426.0)
704.5
7/1/2012
13,305.0
1,447.0
513.5
345.5
(381.5)
727.0
8/1/2012
12,978.0
1,530.0
492.5
365.5
(368.5)
734.0
9/28/2012
12,434.0
2,057.0
427.0
430.5
(309.0)
739.5
Total Awarded Slots is 14490 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857
28 Providers representing 31 contracts are Over 5% Flex (309)
10
**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.
Caseload Waitlist Since 8/2011
*Waiting List Category
8/31/11
Total
9/29/11
Total
10/31/11
Total
11/30/11
Total
12/31/11
Total
1/31/12
Total
2/29/12
Total
3/31/12
Total
4/30/12
Total
5/31/12
Total
7/31/12
Total
8/31/12
Total
9/28/12
Total
Child of Foster Care
116
125
131
137
143
153
149
162
205
216
215
227
241
256
Child of Homeless family
133
139
140
144
158
181
186
201
315
342
374
410
435
461
Child of Military Personnel
45
48
51
50
54
56
54
57
68
69
71
71
71
78
Child of Teen Parent
130
152
160
174
187
195
234
247
312
343
355
380
406
428
Child w ith Special Needs
823
849
893
936
975
1,031
1,083
1,149
1,449
1,577
1,676
1,765
1,890
1,974
66
83
124
122
121
Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer
Only
Continuity of Care: Aging Out
171
278
283
285
280
279
288
289
301
310
312
315
388
404
Continuity of Care: Approved Break in
Service
226
275
286
294
301
303
309
315
337
353
359
383
437
448
Continuity of Care: ARRA
49
127
127
126
125
125
143
137
159
162
159
160
153
151
Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation
60
69
65
67
73
84
86
90
118
123
134
142
168
181
Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract
5
5
5
5
8
8
8
10
16
17
18
19
17
20
Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral
83
93
98
102
100
108
112
114
184
204
226
233
245
244
Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract
22
20
20
20
20
20
22
21
23
23
23
23
27
31
20,533
21,281
21,742
22,711
23,638
24,581
26,009
26,946
28,818
30,564
31,958
33,370
35,264
37,040
6
14
26
347
32
144
171
482
220
235
543
General Priority
No Priority - Other Family Member
-
-
-
Grandparent/Guardian Families
298
317
321
327
329
337
31
361
461
482
631
504
518
595
Parent w ith Special Needs
461
473
479
496
509
531
570
551
657
681
193
734
764
252
Sibling: Contract
229
240
244
250
266
282
330
334
485
460
700
516
555
795
Sibling: Voucher
447
514
549
575
605
641
680
683
685
603
500
684
712
601
Summer only care
590
592
596
591
586
595
619
621
736
748
653
875
867
739
-
656
636
944
623
616
873
N/A
Grand Total
11
6/30/12
Total
*Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait
** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.