FY13 Budget and Caseload
Update
Fiscal Committee
September 10, 2012
FY13 Caseload Overview
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2
Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is
projecting a surplus of $14.2M. The forecast includes the
Infant/Toddler Rate increase for providers self-assessed at QRIS level
2 or above (approx. 37%). The financial impact is projected to be
$1.1M. The forecast includes growth for the number of providers
reaching QRIS Level 2 or above. In June and July 139 children
enrolled in Summer-Only Programs. The forecast includes SummerOnly care for 779 children for June 2012. After reducing the current
surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit ($3.1M), the surplus is
approximately $11M. This could sustain approximately 1600 children
for 10 months.
DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit is $3.1M. In June
2012 caseload was 16,920. Applying a historical percentage (3 years
for caseload and cost) DTA’s projected caseload will range from
16,093 to 16,838. If FY13 caseload deviates from the historical
trends, a decrease in expenditures could reduce the projected deficit.
Supportive: The projected deficit is $475K. Forecasted trends are
based on a three year average for caseload and cost. Ongoing
discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots.
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
As of July 2012
FY2013
Caseload
Spending
Income Eligible
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
DTA
Voucher
Supportive
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
FY2013 Budget
$
$
$
$
134,436,467
88,414,709
9,019,276
231,870,452
$
$
$
$
126,063,350
82,629,533
9,019,276
217,712,159
$
$
$
$
8,373,117
5,785,176
14,158,293
$
125,495,740
$
128,621,652
$
(3,125,912)
$
77,047,992
$
157,583
$
600,000
$
77,805,575
$ 424,139,386
$
$
$
$
$
(417,117)
(57,583)
(474,700)
10,557,681
$
76,630,875
$
100,000
$
600,000
$
77,330,875
Total $ 434,697,067
3
Forecast
Variance
Forecast vs.
Budget
FY 2012 Income Eligible
(3000-4060)
Forecast for August 2012
M o nt h
Jun-12
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
32,215
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
32,215
N/A
30,704
(660)
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
Jul-12
31,364
$
18,607,517
$
18,229,674
$
377,844
Aug-12
31,325
$
18,902,260
$
18,438,671
$
841,432
Sep-12
30,933
$
17,350,379
$
16,365,271
$
1,826,541
Oct-12
30,457
$
17,632,030
$
18,558,901
$
899,669
Nov-12
30,398
$
17,302,718
$
17,689,249
$
513,138
Dec-12
30,237
$
16,902,323
$
16,739,662
$
675,798
Jan-13
29,950
$
17,423,935
$
18,164,539
$
(64,807)
Feb-13
30,048
$
16,954,176
$
16,638,535
$
250,834
Mar-13
29,955
$
17,050,124
$
16,595,169
$
705,789
Apr-13
29,788
$
17,311,495
$
17,249,028
$
768,257
May-13
29,256
$
17,370,697
$
17,703,818
$
435,136
Jun-13
29,924
$
17,487,919
$
16,320,365
$
1,602,690
GRANTS
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
TOTAL
$
219,314,849
$
217,712,159
FY13 Appropriation
231,870,452
231,870,452
Surplus/Deficiency
12,555,603
14,158,293
- Y el l o w : FY12 Act ual Expendit ures
- B l ue : FY13 A ct ual / F o r ecast Exp end i t ur es
**2013 Act uals/ Forecast include Inf ant / Toddler Increase Project ion
- Act ual dollars represent expendit ures billed and paid as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared and may include lat e billing.
- Current Project ed Surplus could sust ain 1648 children f or 10 mont hs, based on an avg. daily rat e
- Addit ional savings may be realised by parent f ees.
* Spending Plan Project ion is maximum obligat ion, f lex , t een and homeless cont ract s.
* Act ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h. Please not e a child could receive mult iple services.
* Caseload changes f or a prior report ing mont h is driven by lat e billing.
4
* Budget ed caseload assumes access is closed (Vouchers) and t erminat ions will be consist ent wit h hist orical t rend.
FY 2012 DTA Related
(3000-4050)
Forecast August 2012
M o nt h
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
Jun-12
16,920
16,920
N/A
Jul-12
16,019
15,847
(172)
Aug-12
Sep-12
V a ria nc e
B udge t
S pe nding
P la n
P ro je c t io n
YT D
V a ria nc e
( O rigina l
S pe nding
P la n)
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a
s t E xpe ndit ure s
$ 10,717,525
$
11,024,632
$
(307,106)
16,060
$ 11,233,530
$
11,127,758
$
(201,334)
16,419
$
9,986,720
$
9,890,655
$
(105,269)
(18,078)
Oct-12
16,201
$ 11,002,439
$
10,915,249
$
Nov-12
16,428
$ 10,991,409
$
10,899,952
$
73,378
Dec-12
16,358
$ 10,447,142
$
10,360,631
$
159,889
Jan-13
15,912
$ 11,129,920
$
11,099,781
$
190,029
Feb-13
16,180
$ 10,333,239
$
10,302,546
$
220,721
Mar-13
16,462
$ 10,513,483
$
10,479,966
$
254,238
Apr-13
16,631
$ 11,127,055
$
11,090,063
$
291,230
May-13
16,498
$ 11,539,709
$
11,502,517
$
328,422
Jun-13
16,374
$
$
9,927,903
$
359,543
TOTAL
9,959,024
$128,981,195
$ 128,621,652
FY13 Appropriation
$ 125,495,740
Surplus/Deficiency
$
(3,125,912)
- Y el l o w : F Y 11 A ct ual E xp end i t ur es
- B l ue : FY 13 A ct ual / F o r ecast E xp end i t ur es
**2013 A ct uals/ Forecast include Inf ant / Toddler Increase Project ion
- A ct ual dollars represent expendit ures billed and paid as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared and may include lat e billing.
* A ct ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h. Please not e a child could receive mult iple services.
* Caseload changes f or a prior report ing mont h is driven by lat e billing.
5
FY 2012 Supportive
(3000-3050)
Forecast for August 2012
M o nt h
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
Jun-12
6,010
6,010
N/A
Jul-12
6,097
5,979
(118)
Aug-12
Sep-12
V a ria nc e
B udge t
S pe nding
P la n
P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re
cast
E xpe ndit ure s
YT D
V a ria nc e
( O rigina l
S pe nding
P la n)
$
6,588,626
$
6,463,750
$
124,877
6,071
$
6,865,945
$
6,666,122
$
324,700
6,084
$
5,983,846
$
5,804,780
$
503,766
Oct-12
6,084
$
6,876,242
$
6,680,394
$
699,614
Nov-12
6,159
$
6,635,389
$
6,443,861
$
891,142
Dec-12
6,188
$
6,321,780
$
6,170,607
$ 1,042,315
Jan-13
6,172
$
6,911,188
$
6,738,569
$ 1,214,934
Feb-13
6,216
$
6,341,848
$
6,183,689
$ 1,373,093
Mar-13
6,313
$
6,411,617
$
6,251,405
$ 1,533,305
Apr-13
6,314
$
6,717,704
$
6,550,415
$ 1,700,594
May-13
6,314
$
7,023,054
$
6,848,161
$ 1,875,487
Jun-13
6,541
$
6,562,792
$
6,403,822
$ 2,034,458
$
600,000
$
600,000
GRANTS
TOTAL
$ 79,840,032
$ 77,805,575
FY13 Appropriation
$ 77,330,875
Surplus/Deficiency
$
(474,700)
- Y el l o w : F Y 11 A ct ual E xp end i t ur es
- B l ue : FY 13 A ct ual / F o r ecast E xp end i t ur es
**2013 A ct uals/ Forecast include Inf ant / Toddler Increase Project ion
- A ct ual dollars represent expendit ures billed and paid as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared and may include lat e billing.
* A ct ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h. Please not e a child could receive mult iple services.
* Caseload changes f or a prior report ing mont h is driven by lat e billing.
6
FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$74,599
$77,304
$75,499
$104,314
$96,282
$104,827
$110,531
$114,818
$111,207
$129,447
$133,959
$129,382
$146,837
$152,546
$147,088
$164,184
$171,230
$164,890
$182,185
$190,217
$182,953
$200,640
$209,305
$201,075
$217,712
$231,870
$219,315
$20,000
$55,288
$57,955
$57,115
$40,000
$38,172
$39,013
$39,013
$60,000
$18,981
$19,359
$19,359
(Amount in Thousands)
$180,000
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$-
Actual/Forecast
FY13 Budget
FY13 Maintenance
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)
Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection) )
7
Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late Billing
July 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $8,152,522
Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase
FY2013 DTA Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$42,958
$42,940
$41,772
$53,858
$53,932
$52,468
$64,219
$64,379
$62,634
$75,319
$75,509
$73,459
$85,621
$85,842
$83,513
$96,101
$96,355
$93,744
$107,191
$107,482
$104,574
$118,694
$119,022
$115,805
$128,622
$128,981
$125,496
$10,000
$32,043
$31,938
$31,072
$20,000
$22,152
$21,951
$21,354
$30,000
$11,025
$10,718
$10,426
$40,000
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation
8
Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection)
FY13 Maintenance
FY13 Budget
FY2013 Supportive Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$100,000
$90,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$13,230
$13,124
$13,555
$19,085
$18,967
$19,588
$25,815
$25,673
$26,515
$32,309
$32,147
$33,200
$38,530
$38,317
$39,572
$45,318
$45,058
$46,533
$51,552
$51,248
$52,925
$57,853
$57,507
$59,386
$64,454
$64,062
$66,154
$71,352
$70,913
$73,227
$77,806
$77,331
$79,840
$10,000
$6,514
$6,428
$6,639
$20,000
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : : FY13 Appropriation
9
Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection)
FY13 Maintenance
FY13 Budget
FY12/13 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
(2,000.0)
Regular
Filled
Regular
Open
Flex Filled
Flex Open
Flex - Over
5%
Flex - Under
5%
9/7/2011
12,279.5
2,210.5
722.0
111.0
(582.0)
693.0
10/3/2011
12,297.0
2,193.0
636.0
197.0
(518.5)
715.5
11/1/2011
12,801.5
1,637.5
640.0
214.0
(495.5)
710.5
11/29/2011
13,029.5
1,429.5
623.5
232.5
(473.0)
705.5
1/3/2012
12,937.5
1,531.5
596.5
264.0
(438.0)
701.5
1/31/2012
13,213.5
1,257.5
585.5
274.5
(437.0)
711.5
3/1/2012
13,271.5
1,194.5
579.5
279.5
(432.0)
711.5
3/30/2012
13,391.0
1,071.0
604.5
254.5
(441.5)
696.0
4/30/2012
13,388.0
1,074.0
640.5
218.5
(451.0)
669.5
5/29/2012
13,266.0
1,197.0
596.5
278.5
(426.0)
704.5
7/1/2012
13,305.0
1,447.0
513.5
345.5
(381.5)
727.0
8/1/2012
12,978.0
1,530.0
492.5
365.5
(368.5)
734.0
Total Awarded Slots is 14508 and Allowable Flex Slots is 858
34 Providers representing 44 contracts are Over 5% Flex (368.5)
10
**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.
Caseload Waitlist Since 8/2011
*Waiting List Category
8/31/11
Total
9/29/11
Total
10/31/11
Total
11/30/11
Total
12/31/11
Total
1/31/12
Total
2/29/12
Total
3/31/12
Total
4/30/12
Total
6/30/12
Total
7/31/12
Total
8/31/12
Total
Child of Foster Care
116
125
131
137
143
153
149
162
205
216
215
227
241
Child of Homeless family
133
139
140
144
158
181
186
201
315
342
374
410
435
Child of Military Personnel
45
48
51
50
54
56
54
57
68
69
71
71
71
Child of Teen Parent
130
152
160
174
187
195
234
247
312
343
355
380
406
Child w ith Special Needs
823
849
893
936
975
1,031
1,083
1,149
1,449
1,577
1,676
1,765
1,890
66
83
124
122
Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer
Only
Continuity of Care: Aging Out
171
278
283
285
280
279
288
289
301
310
312
315
388
Continuity of Care: Approved Break in
Service
226
275
286
294
301
303
309
315
337
353
359
383
437
Continuity of Care: ARRA
49
127
127
126
125
125
143
137
159
162
159
160
153
Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation
60
69
65
67
73
84
86
90
118
123
134
142
168
Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract
5
5
5
5
8
8
8
10
16
17
18
19
17
Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral
83
93
98
102
100
108
112
114
184
204
226
233
245
Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract
22
20
20
20
20
20
22
21
23
23
23
23
27
20,533
21,281
21,742
22,711
23,638
24,581
26,009
26,946
28,818
30,564
31,958
33,370
35,264
6
14
26
347
32
144
171
482
220
235
General Priority
No Priority - Other Family Member
-
-
-
Grandparent/Guardian Families
298
317
321
327
329
337
31
361
461
482
631
504
518
Parent w ith Special Needs
461
473
479
496
509
531
570
551
657
681
193
734
764
Sibling: Contract
229
240
244
250
266
282
330
334
485
460
700
516
555
Sibling: Voucher
447
514
549
575
605
641
680
683
685
603
500
684
712
Summer only care
590
592
596
591
586
595
619
621
736
748
653
875
867
-
656
636
944
623
616
N/A
Grand Total
11
5/31/12
Total
*Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait
** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.