Hastily Formed Networks in
Complex Humanitarian Disasters
Brian Steckler
Hastily Formed Networks Research Group Director
Cebrowski Institute
Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA
With Dave Alderson
First Year Review, August 27, 2009
ONR MURI: NexGeNetSci
Steckler
Hastily Formed
Networks
Theory
• First principles
• Rigorous math
• Algorithms
• Proofs
Data
Analysis
• Correct
statistics
• Only as good
as underlying
data
Lab
Numerical
Experiments Experiments
• Simulation
• Synthetic,
clean data
• Stylized
• Controlled
• Clean,
real-world
data
Field
Exercises
Real-World
Operations
• SemiControlled
• Messy,
real-world
data
• Unpredictable
• After action
reports in lieu
of data
Why study disasters and disaster response?
• Layered view of society, enabled by networks
• Only see hidden structure and behavior (i.e., “what matters”)
when things break
• Immediate relevance (domestic/international)
–
–
–
–
DHS/FEMA, DoD all trying to develop doctrine
NGOs, UN, international community
Interoperability issues across comm spectrum
Global concern that we’re on brink of one or more disasters of
unparalleled scale and we don’t do well with disasters of any size
• Desperate need for theory
– Interesting physical phenomena
– Boundary of physical science and human behavior
– Intersection with public policy
• Opportunities for data collection, modeling
– Ongoing field experiments/exercises/real events
– After action reports from real events
What is a disaster and how is it measured ?
• A recent Glossary of Emergency Management Terms lists 65
different definitions of “disaster” in the emergency management
literature.
• Many of these definitions characterize a disaster in terms of the
severity of the consequences (i.e., the impact)
– e.g., the EM-DAT disaster database (http://www.emdat.be; global disaster
data since 1900) defines a disaster as having one or more of the following:
• 10 or more people killed
• 100 or more people affected
• declaration of a state of emergency
• call for international assistance
Disasters involve severe impacts on life, property, or the environment.
Different initiating events have similar consequences
Human Systems
(social, economic, information, …)
Initiating Event
Natural:
Earthquake
Flood
Slides
Volcano
Wave / Surge
Wild Fires
Wind Storm
Technological:
Accident
Failure
Attack
Critical Infrastructures
• Information and Communications:
PTN, TV/Radio, CATV, Internet,
Satellite, Wireless
• Energy Systems:
Electrical Power, Gas and Oil
Production, Storage and Transport
• Physical Distribution:
Transportation, Water Supply
Systems, Sewage and Disposal
• Vital Human Services:
Emergency, Government, Military
Services
• Social Systems
Consequences
•Deaths
•Human
Suffering
•Damage
•Social,
Psychological
•Political
deaths
people
affected
reported
disasters
1900
2008
What is a Hastily Formed Network (HFN)?
A HFN Consists of Five Elements*:
•
•
•
•
•
a network of people or technologies established rapidly
from different communities,
working together in a shared conversation space
in which they plan, commit to, and execute actions
to fulfill a large, urgent mission.
HFN application areas:
• Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR)
• Network-centric military operations
• Critical national/international infrastructure
*P. Denning, Hastily Formed Networks, Communications of the ACM 49(4): 15-20, April 2006.
NPS HFN Center: Live Ops and Field Experiments
HA/DR
• SE Asian Tsunami (Jan-May 05)
Net-Centric Ops
• DHS/DOD Golden Phoenix (07-08)
- DOD/DHS Joint Radio Interoperability
• Hurricane Katrina (Sep-Oct 05)
• NPS COASTS (07-08)
• USNS Mercy Humanitarian Mission
to SE Asia (Summer 06)
- Cooperative Operations and Applied
Science& Technology Studies
creates wireless field experiment
opportunities in SE Asia
• USNS Comfort Latin/South America • NPS RELIEF Field Experiment / Demo
Humanitarian Mission (Summer 07)
Program
• Myanmar - Cyclone Nargis (Summer
08)
- Research & Experimentation for Local
& International Emergency & First
Responders
- Quarterly one-week events followed
by week of wireless surveillance /
targeting field demos
We have catalogued more than 80 DoD/DHS Military Ops + HA/DR focused exercises.
(HFN Center Website: http://www.hfncenter.org)
Disaster Response: messy and hard !
• Domestic Disaster Response Problems
–
–
–
–
–
–
Lots of players requiring significant coordination
New National Response Framework untested in large disaster
Shoestring budgets, poor spending choices
Problems with comms interoperability (voice, data, RF, etc.)
No universal standards: NIMS + ICS optional
Trained first responders can also be victims (e.g., pandemic)
• International Disaster Response Problems
–
–
–
–
–
Who is in charge (UN, NATO, regional orgs like ASEAN)?
Interoperability worse than in U.S. – larger scale
Too many online disaster mgmt or collaboration tools and portals
Politics of multi-national response to multi-national disasters
Lack of cooperation between NGO and gov’t/military communities
Efforts to coordinate disaster response are studied as part of
Emergency Management
What is Emergency Management?
•
“…the coordinated and collaborative integration of all relevant stakeholders
into the four phases of emergency management (mitigation, preparedness,
response and recovery) related to natural, technological, and intentional
hazards.”
– National Governors Association, 1978 Emergency Preparedness Project
Final Report.
•
"…the governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities
necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect
against, respond to, recover from or mitigate against threatened or actual
natural disasters, acts of terrorism or other man-made disasters."
– Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006" (Title VI of H.R.
5441) (now Public Law 109-295)
•
“…the managerial function charged with creating the framework within
which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters.”
– Principles of Emergency Management, FEMA Emergency Management
Institute, September 11, 2007.
Emergency Management is mostly reactionary, not very scientific
The National Response Plan (NRP) for
Disaster Management
(pre-2008 doctrine)
Source: FEMA Independent Study Course “Principles of Emergency Management”, February 2006.
Incident timescales vary by disaster type…..
Preparation
Response
Recovery
• Best means for mitigation depend on
– amount of warning for an incident
– duration of incident itself
Incident timescales vary by disaster type
months
event
warning
drought
famine
volcano
weeks
extreme
temp
epidemic
days
hurricane
forest fires
hours
minutes
Can shape the
evolution of the
disaster itself
tsunami
tornado
earthquakes
minutes
flood
Build resilience.
Recover quickly.
hours
days
Evacuation
weeks
months
event duration
these timescales determine what types of mitigation are possible
Lots of recent activity….still a mess!
• National Response Framework replaced NRP
– Result of Katrina lessons learned – system overwhelmed
and NRP not appropriate
• Renewed emphasis on exercises, training,
certifications; NIMS/ICS promotion
• Hard look at industry solutions and managed service
model versus buying/maintaining solutions locally
• Corporations getting onboard with increased focus
on “corporate social responsibility”
• Proposals flooding system to access stimulus funds
(not a pleasant process – too many strings attached)
Can we take a more structured look at the problem?
HFN Basics: Building Comms
The Challenge:
austere
environment
– No power
– No fiber/copper infrastructure
– No push-to-talk comms to speak of
– Cellular svc mostly jammed / overwhelmed
– SatPhone svc mostly jammed / overwhelmed
– Not enough satellite equipment suites available
– No Internet access (web, email, VOIP)
– No technical people resources available
Good News:
we know how to
solve using COTS
technologies
Details on the “9 Piece Puzzle”
at www.hfncenter.org
Bad News: In practice, comms are typically not the problem
• The real problem is the “human layer” that sits
above the comms
–
–
–
–
Organizational
Cultural
Informational
Civil-military boundary
Relevant research questions :
• Can we make sense of this mess?
• Is there an “architecture” for HFNs?
• How do we build more effective HFNs?
a constraint-based view of architecture
System-level
constraints
Hard Limits
What is the
“design space”
for an HFN?
Component
constraints
Recent experience suggests that the existing
“architectures” are bad ones. Can we do better?
Policies &
Doctrine
Constraints
that
deconstrain
A Layered View of HFN Architecture
The Conversation
“APPLICATION
LAYER”
“NETWORK
LAYER”
“PHYSICAL
LAYER”
The “Conversation Space”
A Layered View of HFN Architecture
HUMAN / COGNITIVE LAYER
Social/Cultural
VOICE
- Push-to-talk
- Cellular
- VoIP
- Sat Phone
- Land Line
VIDEO/IMAGERY
- VTC
- GIS
- Layered Maps
WIRED
- DSL
- Cable
WIRELESS LOCAL
- WiFi
- PAN
- MAN
WIRELESS LONG
HAUL
- WiMAX
- Microwave
- HF over IP
POWER
- Fossil Fuel
- Renewable
HUMAN NEEDS
- Shelter
- Water
- Fuel
- Food
PHYSICAL SECURITY
- Force Protection
- Access
Authorization
TEXT
“APPLICATION
LAYER”
“NETWORK
LAYER”
“PHYSICAL
LAYER”
The
Conversation
Organizational
Political
- email
- chat
- SMS
Economic
SPECIALIZED
- Collaboration
- Sit Awareness
- Command/Control
- Integration/Fusion
REACHBACK
- Satellite
Broadband
- VSAT
- BGAN
OPERATIONS
CENTER
- NetSec
- Command/Control
- Leadership
Modeling Human Behavior: The OODA Loop
• USAF Col John Boyd (1927-1997)
• Descriptive model: continuous process of how individuals or
organizations react to events
Sensing,
collecting data
OBSERVE
Executing the
course of action
ACT
ORIENT
Analysis and
synthesis of data to
form a perspective
DECIDE
Selecting a
course of action
• Boyd’s argument: Survival depends on speed through loop
• Emphasis on drills and training to decrease response times
HFNs as “Network-Based OODA Loops”
• The OODA loop has been very influential
culturally on DoD, and more recently DHS, in
terms of training, drilling, etc
– We know how to do OODA in single actor or tight
C2 contexts, and we have doctrine to guide our
behavior
– Doing OODA among distributed, heterogeneous
agents over a network is not understood
– HFNs exemplify the challenges in OODA in a
network context
HFNs as “Network-Based OODA Loops” (cont’d)
• As a conceptual framework, the OODA loop ties
together existing research in network science
– Distributed algorithms for sensing, building
consensus, and taking action (e.g., synchronization,
control of some other dynamical process)
– Behavioral network science: our team’s experiments
about how humans interact over networks
• Open research question: how to improve our
ability to do OODA in a network context?
Ongoing Research Efforts
• Model existing doctrine for disaster response in terms of
a constraint-based architecture for HFNs
Theory
Data
Analysis
Lab
Numerical
Experiments Experiments
Field
Exercises
Real-World
Operations
• Extend behavioral network science experiments to field
exercises (moving to the right…)
• Develop simple lab and/or field experiments that isolate
tensions in HFN operations (moving left…)
• Participation in and analysis of field experiments,
exercises, and real world disasters
– Via deployment of HFN comms, data collection, interviews
Questions ? Comments ?