Electoral College Issues
Explored through
Mathematics and Data Analysis
NCSS San Diego
December 1, 2007
Dr. Tim Fry
Washburn University
Topeka, KS
tim.fry@washburn.edu
Electoral College
• Historical Origins & Precedents
• Inquiry Activities
• Games & Activities
• Scrap It, Keep It or Tweak It ?
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Classroom Objectives
Students will be able to:
• note historical origins, precedents and changes to the electoral
college system especially the small/large state compromise, role
of state legislatures and 12th Amendment to the Constitution
• describe some aspects of how the electoral college system
works today especially noting the winner takes all in most states
• analyze data from several presidential elections noting popular
and electoral vote outcomes with variations, third
party/independent candidate effects
• list and describe some current issues for keeping, scrapping or
tweaking the electoral college system
Sites for data on popular vote and electoral votes are:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
(Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)
http://nationalatlas.gov
http://fisher.lib.virginia.edu/collections/stats/elections
2000
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Florida
2000
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Related articles by Tim Fry:
“Constitutional Mathematics: Integrating
Social Studies and Mathematics,” Law Wise,
September 2004
“Lesson Plan #1: The Electoral College
Game,” Law Wise, September 2004
http://www.kscourts.org/lawwise/sep2004.htm#math
NCTM ANNUAL CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA
APRIL 23, 2004
CONSTIT U TIO N AL MATH E MATICS
Historical BackgroundС
With the phrase --Тin order to form a more perfect union,Уthe
Preamble of the Constitution of the United States admits that there
were some problems with the nationХsfirst plan for government
known as the Articles of Confederation.
Question:
How did the founding fathers solve many of these problems?
Answer:
With mathematical solutions
Electoral College--Historical Origins,
Precedents, Amendments
• Tough assignment-How to elect a president?
large/small states; central/federal versus states power; balance of
power between Congress & the Presidency; little communication
between states-
• Several Proposals
•
•
•
•
1) have the Congress choose
2) state legislatures choose
3) direct popular vote-favorite son & large vs. small
4) College of electors--indirect election in which each state
legislatures would choose knowledgeable and informed
individuals to select the president based solely on merit and
without regard to State of origin or political party.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
Electoral College--Historical Origins,
Precedents, Amendments
The First Design-- Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution
•Each State allocated number of Electors equal to its congressional
delegation.
•The manner of choosing the Electors was left to the individual State
legislatures.
• In order to prevent Electors from voting only for a "favorite son" of
their own State, each Elector was required to cast two votes for
president, at least one of which had to be for someone outside their
home State.
•The person with the most electoral votes, provided that it was an
absolute majority became president. Whoever obtained the next
greatest number of electoral votes became vice president.
• In the event that no one obtained an absolute majority in the Electoral
College or in the event of a tie vote, the U.S. House of Representatives
would choose the president from among the top five contenders. The
vice presidency would go to whatever remaining contender had the
greatest number of electoral votes. If that, too, was tied, the U.S.
Senate would break the tie by deciding between the two.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
1792
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
1796
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
1800
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments
The Second Design (after four elections and rise of political parties)
the 12th
Amendment (1804) requires that:
+ each Elector cast one vote for president and a separate
vote for vice president
+ if no one receives an absolute majority of electoral votes
for president, then the U.S. House of Representatives will
select the president from among the top three contenders
with each State casting only one vote and an absolute
majority being required to elect.
+ if no one receives an absolute majority for vice president,
then the U.S. Senate will select the vice president from
among the top two contenders for that office.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
1804
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1824
http://www.uselectionatlas.org
1960
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1960
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Election Inquiry Activity Map #1
http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/elections.html#list
Election Inquiry Activity Map #2
http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/elections.html#list
Election Inquiry Activity Questions
Use Inquiry Activity Maps #1&#2 to answer the following questions about
Presidential Elections from 1972-2000
(sample questions)
1. What three elections did the Republicans win the electoral vote by a
landslide?
2. Which election was the closest in number of electoral votes?
3. Which election was close in the popular vote but a landslide in the
electoral vote?
4. Name at least one state in which the same political party has won all eight
elections.
5. Note an election that was close in both the electoral vote and the popular
vote.
6. In which election did the Democratic candidate do the poorest in number
of electoral votes?
7. In which election did the winner of the popular vote lose the electoral
vote?
“Electoral Vote Density”
Number of voters divided by electoral votes
Varies greatly between California and Wyoming
2004 Election
California Electoral Vote Density: 651,659 persons per EV
Wyoming Electoral Vote Density: 168,511persons per EV
1984
Wyoming
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1984
Maryland
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Lesson Plan: The Electoral College Game
Grade level: 5-9
Objectives: Students should be able to note some characteristics of
the electoral college system in the united States. Specifically be able
to note the wide range of electoral votes among the states and how
that might affect where candidates and campaigns focus their efforts,
how many electoral votes it takes to be elected president, and
possibly how winning several small states can affect the outcome of
the election.
Materials: Handout of game rules-- one for each student or group;
tally sheet for states visited handoutС one for each group;
Procedures:
Set/Focus Question: If you were a candidate for President
would you spend a lot of time campaigning in Kansas? Why or why
not?
Teaching Strategies: Lead review discussion on some of the
main characteristics of electoral system.
 President not elected by national popular vote but by electoral
college vote.
 Each state has a popular vote that determines who gets the
stateХs electoral votes-popular winner takes all electoral votes
from that state
 StatesХelectoral vote based largely on populationС total
electoral votes in each state is the sum of US Senators plus
members in the US House of Representatives. All states have
2 Senators and population determines the number of
representatives in the House. Kansas has 2 Senators and 4
Representatives in the House for a total of 6 electoral votes.
 Range of electoral votes from a minimum of 3 in several states
to 55 in
California
 Must have majority of 538 total electoral votes or at least 270
electoral votes.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE GAME RULES
1.You have three people who may actually visit states and
gain point s there.
2. The preside ntial candidate can visit only 15 states. If
he/she visits a state, you get three (3) campaign points.
3. The vice-presidential candidate can visit 18 states. If
he/she visits a state, you get two (2) campaign points.
4. The campaign worker may visit up to 25 states; you only
get 1 campaign point when a campaign worker visits.
5. All three may visit one state for a total of 6 campai gn
points for that state. Or:
5a) Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates visit a
state ---5 points
5b) Presidential candidate and campaign worker visit a
stateС 4 points
5c) Vice-presidential candidat e and support worker visit
a state--3 points
6. The other people in your group are there to help you make
decisions but can not earn any campaign points.
7. If your team has the most campaign points in that state,
your candidates win the electoral votes for that state.
8. If there is a tie in campaign points for any state, we will
draw for the winner of that stateХs electoral votes.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Other resources/sites
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/index.html
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Other resources/sites
http://www.timeforkids.com/TFK/games/white/0,9970,96321,00.html
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Electoral College
Keep it,
Tweak it,
Scrap it ?
Some Arguments for the Electoral College
maintains a federal system of government and representation
----”nationalization of our central government”--”state’s choice”
contributes to the political stability of the nation by encouraging
a two-party system and political stability
---diffficult for minor party to win enough popular votes to get electoral
votes--forces fringe or extreme ideas to the middle and also sometimes
forces majority parties to adopt new ideas to maintain support--assimilation
process--pragmatism
contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a
distribution of popular support to be elected president
--Candidates must build coaltions of states and regions (urban and rural) &
without it the EC comes the possibilty of domination of one large populous
region or of urban over rural interests
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/electcollege_procon
Four Arguments Against the Electoral College
:
* the possibility of electing a numerically minority president
narrow popular vote in large state-winner take all
* the risk of so-called "faithless" Electors
1988-Dukakis/Bensen-West Virginia Elector switched them
* the possible role of the Electoral College in depressing
voter turnout
other elections always taking place as well
* its failure to accurately reflect the national popular will
seven least populous states combined voters of about 3 million
and 25 electoral votes the same as almost 10 million voters in
Florida with the same 25 electoral votes--electoral vote density
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/electcollege_procon
Tweak It ?
District Method
Two Electors At Large and one Electors for each Congressional District are
pledged to each Presidential/Vice-Presidential ticket (the Electors' names
may or may not appear on the ballot). The At-Large Electors pledged to the
ticket having received the plurality of votes state-wide are chosen. The
Elector pledged to the ticket having received the plurality of votes within
each Congressional District is chosen.
* This method was used by Michigan in the 1892 Election, splitting
electors Rep 9 to Dem 5
* Maine adopted this method in 1969 (first used in 1972), but has yet to
split any electors
* Nebraska adopted this method in 1991 (first used in 1992), but has yet
to split any electors
http://uselectionatlas.org
Your Thoughts on the
Electoral College?