Detecting g-ray Sources Brenda Dingus dingus@lanl.gov 23 January 2006 Outline: I. Detection Techniques II. Each g-ray is an Image III. Source Detection A. B. C. Point Sources Extended Sources Variable Sources g-rays Probe Nature’s Particle Accelerators Black Hole producing relativistic jet of particles HST Image of M87 (1994) Binary Neutron Star Coalescing Artist Conception of Short GRBs Spinning Neutron Star powering a relativistic wind Chandra x-ray image TeV image of Vela Jr. Supernova Remnant HESS TeV + x-ray Massive Star Collapsing into a Black Hole SuperComputer Calculation Different Types of Detectors for Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Low Energy Threshold EGRET/GLAST Large Aperture/High Duty Cycle Milagro, Tibet, ARGO, HAWC Low Duty Cycle/Small Aperture Large Effective Area Excellent Background Rejection Large Duty Cycle/Large Aperture Space-based (Small Area) “Background Free” Large Duty Cycle/Large Aperture Moderate Area Good Background Rejection Known Source Spectra Known Source Lightcurves Survey of Galactic Plane Sky Survey > 100 MeV Transient Sources Extended Sources Sky Survey >~ 1 TeV Transient Sources Extended Sources High Sensitivity HESS, MAGIC, CANGAROO, VERITAS High Energy g-ray Observatories in Space Pre Compton Observatory – SAS2 – CosB – 10-20 sources Compton Observatory – 1991-2000 – EGRET (spark chamber) – ~300 sources GLAST – Launch September 2007 – >5000 sources Satellites (30 MeV to 300 GeV g-rays) g-rays interact via pair production in dispersed foils Cosmic-ray background (mostly protons) is rejected by anticoincidence shield AND inverted V-image of electron-positron pair g-ray direction is determined by energy-weighted average of the electron and positron tracks g Pair-Conversion Telescope anticoincidence shield conversion foil particle tracking detectors e+ e– calorimeter (energy measurement) Angular Resolution is dominated by multiple scattering (a 1/Energy) at low energies and by position resolution of tracker at high energies Energy Resolution is ~10%, but lower energies are always more probable due to source spectra which is typically dN/dE ~ K E-2 Energy Dependent Localization EGRET’s Galactic Center Source Galactic Latitude (deg) The number of g-rays is small with typically < 100 per source Use spatially unbinned likelihood analysis (infinitesimally small bins with either 0 or 1 event) Use Energy Dependent Point Spread Function to calculate the Model in small energy intervals Require the normalization in each energy interval to fit a power law spectrum with free parameters for the overall normalization and spectral index Galactic Longitude (deg) Diamonds show g-rays > 5 GeV. 95 % confidence intervals are Black Circle for Previous Analysis and Blue Area is New Analysis. Point Source Survey Source confusion will be a problem Prediction for GLAST Detections Of Active Galactic Nuclei – ~ 1 source/ 4 sq deg – Point Spread Function at 0.1 (1) GeV is 3.5 (0.4) deg – Typical (weak) source will have < 100 g-rays detected Most sources vary with time as much as an order of magnitude Different Spectra also help with harder (higher energy) spectra having better localization Integral Flux (E>100 MeV) cm-2s-1 Time Variable Sources Small # of g-rays limits minimum variability time scale At least 5 g-rays are required to detect a source Bayesian block statistical technique is needed to distinguish the lightcurve 100 sec 1 orbit - GRB940217 (100sec) - PKS 1622-287 flare - 3C279 flare - Vela Pulsar - Crab Pulsar - 3EG 2020+40 (SNR g Cygni?) 1 day - 3EG 1835+59 - 3C279 lowest 5 detection - 3EG 1911-2000 (AGN) - Mrk 421 - Weakest 5 EGRET source Galactic Diffuse Emission g-rays are produced by interaction of cosmic rays with matter and photons in the Galaxy Structure (e.g. molecular clouds) is comparable to the size of the g-ray point spread function The uncertainty in the model of diffuse emission is difficult to determine, but does effect point source detection Use maximum likelihood test with diffuse model + point source vs only diffuse model to quantify significance of point sources (need Monte Carlo to derive probability from Test Statistic) Galactic Diffuse Model & EGRET Data (Hunter et al. 1998) -180 -140 -100 -60 -20 20 60 100 140 180 Water Cherenkov Extensive Air Shower Detectors • Detect Particles in Extensive Air Showers from Cherenkov light created in a covered pond containing filtered water. • Reconstruct shower direction from the time different photomultiplier tubes are hit. • 1700 Hz trigger rate (>50 billion events/yr) mostly due to Extensive Air Showers created by cosmic rays • Field of view is ~2 sr and the average duty factor is nearly 100% Milagro Cross Section Schematic e m g 8 meters 50 meters 80 meters Angular Reconstruction Use nsec timing from each PMT hit to fit direction of primary particle Monitor angular reconstruction with the space angle difference between reconstructions of individual events with the Even vs Odd # PMTs (delEO) delEO is ~ twice the angular resolution due to the error in each subset as well as the improvement when the # of points in the fit is doubled. Median D even-odd = 1.0o implies Gaussian of 0.4o for proton reconstruction Red Monte Carlo Black Data D even-odd in degrees Event Images in Milagro Protons Size of red dots indicate # of photoelectrons detected. Proton MC Gamma MC Gammas Data Cut at C>2.5 to Retain 50% g and 9% protons. Signal Q 0.5 Background 0.09 1.7 Efficiency gamma Efficiency background Q MARS1 (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) Predicts the values of an outcome variable given a set of independent predictor variables Calculates probability of g vs background for all combinations of parameters MARS Value is ln[P(signal)/P(background)] – More positive means more g-like Differential Distribution 1J. Integral Distribution Friedman, “Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines”, Annals of Statistics 19 (1991). Combining Data with Different Cuts: Weighted Analysis Milagro’s Crab Signal Std Cuts: NFIT>=20,C>2.5 Excess = 5410, Off = 1218288, S:B = 1:225 ehadron background =~ 0.1 Weight events by Expected S:B Hard Cuts: NFIT>=200,C>6.0 Excess = 60, Off = 140, S:B = 1:2.3 ehadron background =~ 1x10-5 Point Source Search - Weighted Analysis Optimal Bin Size for Point Sources: • If Guassian Point Spread Function, then Radius of Bin is 1.6 x of the Gaussian Point Spread Function • If Square Bin, then chose dimensions to give same area as square bin • Milagro Opt Square Bin Size = 2.1o Cygnus Region Vicinity of the Crab =1.03 Mrk421 Crab Milagro Background Estimation Variable Source Search • • • • • Search in spatial and time domain Examine >50 time intervals from < 1 msec to 2 hrs to days, weeks, months Shortest time intervals (< 1 sec) use starting times of the single events Longer time intervals are oversampled by factor of two Monte Carlo is used to access trials penalty of oversampling For this analysis, searching and oversampling worsens sensitivity by ~ factor of 2, because ~10 result is required to give a 5 chance probability Extended Source Search Vary Bin Size from ~5O source) 2.1O to 5.9O (Optimal for The Northern Sky above 100 MeV (EGRET) Cygnus Region =1.082 Crab As bin size increases to > 6O background estimation suffers Milagro FOV Cygnus Region Significance: 9.1 Post-trials probability: >7 EGRET Data Cygnus Region Crab A Closer Look at the Galactic Plane GP diffuse excess clearly visible from l=25O to l=90O. Cygnus Region shows extended excess of diameter ~5O-10O. FCygnus ~= 2x FCrab Galactic Latitudinal Distribution Color Map does not show error bars Map is oversampled which smooths the data Make Slices in Latitude for different Longitude cuts Consider Region l = 20O-100O -2<b<2 gives 7.5 Exclude the Cygnus Region: l=20O-75O -2<b<2 gives 5.8 Galactic longitude 20-75 excludes Cygnus region =1.42 +/- .26 Galactic longitude 20-100 includes Cygnus region Cygnus Region Morphology Convolve Cygnus region excess with Milagro PSF(0.75O). Region shows resolvable structure. HEGRA detected TeV Source: TEV J2032_4130. EGRET Model Atomic Diffuse Hydrogen radio contours PSF EGRET Unidentified Sources in the Cygnus Region psf 3rd EGRET Catalog sources shown with 95% position error circle. 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3EG J2016+3657 3EG J2020+4017 3EG J2021+3716 3EG J2022+4317 3EG J2027+3429 3EG J2033+4118 3EG J2035+4441 F > 100 MeV/cm2s (34.7 ± 5.7) x 10-8 (123. ± 6.7) x 10-8 (59.1 ± 6.2) x 10-8 (24.7 ± 5.2) x 10-8 (25.9 ± 4.7) x 10-8 (73.0 ± 6.7) x 10-8 (29.2 ± 5.5) x 10-8 g 2.09 2.08 1.86 2.31 2.28 1.96 2.08 Flux of maximum point: 500mCrab (May be extended) 4 6 2 3 5 1 EGRET Data >1 GeV Weight EGRET >1 GeV g-rays by EGRET’s energy dependent psf 7 4 6 2 3 5 1 Slice of EGRET Data Cut on the Dec. band around Milagro’s bright spot 2 point sources or 1 extended source? EGRET catalog sources were fit as point sources ONLY How close together can GLAST resolve 2 sources of this signal strength? 2nd point source 1st point source Galactic Diffuse Max error bar Summary of the Statistical Issues Event Reconstruction requires advanced pattern recognition and analysis techniques Background estimation and uncertainty effects detection significance Signal events should be weighted by probability of being signal and angular resolution Effective area of the detector is continuously changing and may vary over the size of the point spread function Chance probabilities are effected by oversampling and must be simulated by Monte Carlo